Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with Lao Feng Xiang gold rising by 1 yuan per gram to 1000 yuan per gram, becoming the highest-priced gold store [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold stores has expanded to 31 yuan per gram, with Shanghai China Gold at the lowest price of 969 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum prices continue to decline, with a reported drop of 4 yuan per gram for platinum jewelry, now priced at 548 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recycling price has increased by 4.5 yuan per gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The current gold recycling price is 758.70 yuan per gram, with Lao Feng Xiang gold recycling at the highest price of 771.70 yuan per gram [2] Group 3 - International gold prices have shown a slight increase, with the price reported at 3313.34 USD per ounce, up by 0.37% [4] - The current spot gold price is 324.86 USD per ounce, reflecting a rise of 0.35% [4] - Market sensitivity to tariff impacts appears to have diminished, with economic growth remaining stable despite recent tariff announcements [4] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate a division among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with some favoring action later in the year [4]

2025 年 7 月 10 日星期四 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 究 报 告 美联储纪要：多数官员认为关税可能持续推高通胀，少数官 员愿意在下次会议上考虑降息 特朗普：利率至少高了 3 个百分点 特朗普再向 8 国发出关税信函 巴西面临 50%的关税 特朗普：金砖国家将"很快"面临 10%的额外关税 特朗普政府加大施压哈佛面临失去认证资格风险 美商务部长称拟于 8 月初与中方会谈 中国 6 月 CPI 同比 0.1% PPI 同比-4.3% 6 月底港股总市值 42.7 万亿港元 同比升 33% 消息称硅片厂商昨日下午普遍调高报价 OpenAI 即将推出 AI 浏览器 2 年期美债收益率跌 5.39 个基点报 3.839% 5 年期美债收益率跌 6.82 个基点报 3.901% 10 年期美债收益率跌 7.12 个基点报 4.330% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariff rates for eight countries, including Brazil, with rates ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1, 2025 [1] - Brazil's Vice President criticized the U.S. for raising tariffs, stating that 80% of U.S. exports to Brazil are already duty-free, indicating a trade surplus for the U.S. [1] - Brazil's economy is the largest in Latin America, with a GDP ranking among the top ten globally, and it has developed industries in petrochemicals, mining, steel, and automotive sectors [2] Group 2 - The direct trigger for the U.S. tariffs is a discrepancy in trade statistics, with the U.S. claiming a trade deficit while Brazil argues that service trade is included in the U.S. statistics [4] - In 2024, Brazil imported $42.41 billion from the U.S. and exported $40.33 billion to the U.S., highlighting the close trade relationship [4] - Political motivations are also at play, as Trump has publicly questioned the Brazilian government's investigation into former President Bolsonaro, suggesting that tariffs could be used as leverage [4]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-07-10 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-07-10 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 特朗普第二波征税函发给八国，顺差国巴西征关税 50%迄今最高 观点分享： 据央视新闻报道，当地时间 7 月 9 日，特朗普在社交媒体平台上先后发布了致文莱等国 的加税函。自 8 月 1 日起，美国将对菲律宾产品征收 20%的关税，对文莱和摩尔多瓦征 25% 关税，对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚和斯里兰卡征 30%关税。特朗普公布的对巴西新征关 税率 50%远超此前对等关税 10%，他称这源于美巴不可持续的贸易逆差，以及巴西审判前总 统博索纳罗。巴西雷亚尔一度跌近3%。巴西副总统表示，美国对巴西是顺差，对巴西商品征 收新关税是不公平的。但特朗普说得明白，50%的新关税部分源于巴西起诉其前总统博索纳 罗。看来关税在特朗普眼里，不仅平衡贸易逆差的手段，也是用来威胁甚至打人耍流氓的大 棒子。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 丙烯 | ★★★★ | 丙烯：丙烯预计 7 月 22 日上市，该品种属于烯烃上游单体，承接上下游 ...

Group 1 - The negotiations between Indonesia and the United States cover tariffs, non-tariff barriers, digital economy, and business partnerships [1]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】本周Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开 工率62.33%较上期增2.60%；日均产量52.59万吨增2.00万吨； 原煤库存300.77万吨减11.40万吨；精煤库存197.07万吨减 17.91万吨。评：近日炼焦煤市场稳中偏强运行，价格多数有所 上涨，煤矿成交情况也较好，多数煤矿已经出现预售情况，多 数煤矿端库存已经不存在压力，煤矿挺价意愿较强。终端补库 带动了投机氛围，对市场情绪有一定提振作用，但产地端煤矿 处于复产节奏当中，后续重点关注煤矿产量以及下游焦钢企业 盈利情况，预计短期炼焦煤价格稳中偏强运行。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上发布致8 个国家领导人有关加征关税的信函。其中，巴西将被征收50%的 关税，利比亚、伊拉克、阿尔及利亚和斯里兰卡将被征收30%的 关税，文莱和摩尔多瓦的税率是25%，菲律宾的税率是20%。新 税率将从8月1日起生效。此前，特朗普已向日本、韩国等14个 国家发出了首批关税信函，关税税率从25%到40%不等。他同时 预告本周还会有更多此类信函发出。评：虽然各国对关税均有 所表态，但是关税扰动减弱，市场关注度有所降 ...

美联储内部分歧达到十年之最，华尔街的观点也随之分裂。 华尔街见闻此前提及，根据6月点阵图，美联储官员对2025年利率预测呈现两极化分布，分歧程度创下十年新高。与此同时，华尔街投行对今年降息时机 的判断也出现了分歧。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在其最新研报中表示，受通胀胀风险和关税影响，预计2025年全年无降息，而花旗则在其研报中预计，9月就可能开启降 息周期，且后续每次会议都可能降息，直至政策利率降至3-3.25%。 大摩与花旗预测迥异 大摩报告明确表示，鉴于通胀压力和关税对消费及企业支出的拖累，2025年不会降息，预计2026年才会启动175个基点的降息周期。 大摩分析称，6月FOMC会议纪要偏鹰派，"大多数"官员仍担忧关税可能导致通胀持久化，甚至动摇通胀预期。如果通胀在6月至9月间加速上升，可能有 更多官员倾向于维持现有政策不变。 相反，花旗研究报告则对9月降息充满信心。 据花旗分析，尽管6月会议纪要显示部分官员对通胀风险的担忧加剧，但随着未来数据发布，通胀压力有望缓解，而劳动力市场疲软的迹象将进一步显 现。 花旗预计，9月FOMC会议后，美联储将启动降息，并在此后每次会议持续降息，直至政策利率降至3- ...

Core Viewpoint - Hasbro warns that toy prices in the U.S. may rise later this year due to potential higher tariffs, with CEO Chris Cocks indicating that price increases could be seen by consumers between August and October [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The company has not yet raised prices due to tariffs but anticipates overall price increases in the toy industry [1] - Cocks emphasizes the need for flexibility in response to tariffs, stating that the company is focused on long-term strategies [1] - Approximately half of Hasbro's products are produced in the U.S., with the remainder manufactured abroad [1] Group 2: Domestic Manufacturing Challenges - Cocks acknowledges the challenges of increasing domestic production, citing high labor costs in the U.S. [2] - If toys are produced in the U.S., labor costs could account for 80% to 90% of total costs, potentially raising the price of a $10 toy to $18 to maintain profit margins [2] - The company is exploring opportunities for domestic production, such as Play-Doh, which could be made in the U.S. [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategy - Hasbro's gaming division is performing well, reducing reliance on overseas manufacturing [3] - The company's licensing business has grown by 60% over the past three years, contributing significantly to its profitability [3] - Cocks points out that foreign suppliers have low profit margins of about 2% to 3%, making it difficult for them to absorb the 10% tariff costs [3]

美联储内部对通胀持续性的担忧正在加剧，这可能让市场对年内降息的预期落空。 据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利最新发布的研报显示，美联储6月会议纪要显示官员们对通胀持续性的担忧加剧，多数参会者认为关税可能导致持续通胀 并带来预期失稳风险，这一表态比主席鲍威尔在6月记者会上的立场更为鹰派。摩根士丹利预测美联储今年不会降息，但2026年将降息175个基点。 关税担忧超预期 通胀风险仍是主要考量 今年6月，美联储利率决议仍然按兵不动后，鲍威尔在记者会上表示，关税对通胀的影响可能会更加顽固，预计未来数月将出现一定幅度的通胀压力上 升。关税的总体影响有多大、会持续多久、什么时候完全体现出来，都非常不确定。他对就业市场情况满意，表示"劳动力市场并没有在呼吁降息。" 在摩根士丹利看来，这一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的会议纪要更为"鹰派"，而支撑鹰派观点的最关键内容仍然是——通胀。"大多数参与者"仍然 认为关税可能导致通胀持续，并有破坏通胀预期稳定的风险。 会议纪要指出，在讨论通胀前景时，参与者注意到关税增加可能对价格造成上行压力。然而，这些影响的时机、规模和持续时间存在相当大的不确定性。 该投行估计，当前有效关税税率约为17 ...

晨会纪要 2025 年 7 月 10 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/10 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農あ | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 锌 | 多晶硅 | 燃油 | | | | 苹果 | 上证50股指期货 | 沥青 | | | | 红枣 | 中证500股指期货 | 氧化铝 | | | | 纯碱 | 工业硅 | 三十债 | | | | 锰硅 | 中证1000指数期货 | 橡胶 | | | | 塑料 | 沪深300股指期货 | 尿素 | | | | 硅铁 | 铝 | 稼校 | | | | 甲醇 | 棉花 | 玻璃 | | | | | 十债 | 焦炭 | | | | | 五债 | 焦煤 | | | | | 白糖 | 对二甲苯 | | | | | 棉纱 | ...