Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war has increased risks within the financial system, as stated by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Hawkesby [1] Group 1 - The trade war is contributing to heightened financial system risks [1]

据央视新闻报道，有记者问，中美之间是否在谈判？对此，外交部发言人表示，据我了解，近期两国元首没有通话。我 要重申，中美双方并没有就关税问题进行磋商或谈判。 特朗普（资料图） 在美国针对各国更高税率的"对等关税"于4月9日生效之前，许多美国消费者开始疯狂地、尽可能多地囤积商品，他们担 心一旦关税生效，美国的零售品价格将快速上涨。一些美国人还担忧，现阶段任何恐慌情绪都可能引发囤货潮，而在通 货膨胀恶化的预期之下，这种抢购行为或将进一步加剧。有智库机构估算，特朗普的新关税将在未来十年内让美国民众 损失3.1万亿美元。 不少美国人对特朗普的关税政策表示强烈不满。他们觉得，中国商品物美价廉，根本没有理由被加征这么高的税。有人 直言，中国明明没做错什么，却因为这些政策平白无故受罚。而这些关税政策的真正受害者，其实是普通的美国消费者 和企业。 从上台至今，特朗普一直在试探中国的底线。先是连续两个月分别加征10%的关税，随后又以所谓的"对等关税"名义，再 加征34%，累积关税总额达54%。按照特朗普的设想，到了这一步中国该打电话来"求饶"了，然后美方就能以此为筹码， 和中国谈条件。结果中方反应出乎意料，第一个带头发起反制，不 ...

在技术指标显示原油近期跌势可能过度后，油价周二从四年多来最低收盘价大幅反弹。 周二美盘，两油均涨超3%，布伦特原油过去六个交易日下跌近10%后升至每桶62美元上方，WTI原油重回59美元上方。技术面方面，两油近期在九日相对 强弱指数（RSI）上跌入超卖区域，并跌破了布林带下轨。此外，油市已经出现了一些初步疲软迹象，布伦特原油期货的现货溢价结构是自2月以来最小 的。这些指标都表明油市近期的跌速过快。 欧佩克+上周末同意从6月开始进一步增产后，油价周一下跌，沙特警告称，如果超额生产的成员国不遵守规定，可能会进一步增产。由于世界两大经济体 之间的贸易紧张威胁到全球增长，油价接近四年低点，欧佩克+的行动加剧了原油期货的看跌压力。 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示："焦点正从已经被消化的欧佩克+增产转向需求，而需求又取决于全球贸易战，特别是能否找到解决方案。美国 页岩油生产商暗示未来几个月在维持产量方面将面临更艰难时期，这也支撑了油价。" 美国总统特朗普表示，他愿意在某个时候降低对中国的关税，因为税率太高，两国实际上已停止彼此的商业活动。 有迹象表明，较低的油价正开始对欧佩克以外地区的供应产生影响。 二 ...

21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 上海报道 随着欧佩克+增产计划引发供应过剩担忧，国际油价的暴跌比预期更为猛烈。 5月5日，布伦特原油期货下跌1.7%，收于每桶60.23美元，盘中一度跌破60美元/桶关口。美国原油期货 下跌2%，收于每桶57.13美元，均创下2021年2月以来新低。5月6日，国际油价从低位有所反弹。 据央视新闻报道，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）5月3日发表声明说，沙特、俄罗斯等8个欧佩克和非欧佩 克产油国决定自今年6月起日均增产41.1万桶。这将是上述国家连续第二个月以高于预期的幅度增产石 油。 建信期货能源化工高级研究员李捷对21世纪经济报道记者表示，低油价背景下，部分成员国超额生产引 发沙特不满，欧佩克+内部开始出现分裂迹象。沙特增加原油产量，一方面是借机打压产量持续超过配 额的欧佩克+成员国；另一方面，在特朗普政府的持续施压下，沙特也有政治上的考量。美国总统特朗 普将出访中东，军售以及能源领域预计将成为重点谈判领域，后期沙特不排除继续配合美国增加原油产 量。 几年前的震惊全球的负油价并不算遥远的记忆，随着欧佩克+减产联盟出现裂缝，市场不禁思索：价格 战会再度打响吗？国际油价会在熊市的道路上走多远？ ...

随着全球最大的黄金买家从假期中回归并提振了需求，黄金价格周二高开高走。截至发稿，现货黄金已突破3390美元/盎司，并朝着3400美元/盎司迈进。纽 约期金站上3400美元/盎司。 最近几周，上海期货交易所的黄金期货合约交易量已达到创纪录水平，尽管该交易所为了抑制投机热情收紧了保证金要求。 盛宝银行在一份报告中称，"金价从上周低点3200美元的强劲反弹在隔夜延续，受假期后全球最大黄金买家中国的需求推动。" 黄金价格还得到了疲软美元的支撑，美元在周一兑亚洲货币贬值，其中对新台币的贬值尤为明显。 在新台币周一暴涨后，周二市场情绪有所改善，但对亚洲货币的关注仍在继续。盛宝银行驻新加坡首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示，"今天真正的大动作 在亚洲外汇市场。"他说："如果这些货币继续大幅走强，可能会引发人们对'亚洲货币危机逆转'的担忧，继而对债券市场产生连锁反应，因为人们担心亚洲 机构会重新评估他们对美国国债的未对冲敞口。"通常而言，当美债收益率开始走低时，作为无息资产的黄金就会受益。 今年以来，这种贵金属价格已飙升超过四分之一，在4月份触及略高于每盎司3500美元的历史新高后，过去几周黄金价格有所回落。这一历 ...

每经记者 孙宇婷 每经编辑 张海妮 凭借大众化定位和舒适性优势在全球鞋类市场"杀"出重围的斯凯奇（NYSE:SKX），于当地时间5月5日突然宣布私有化决定。作为全球第三大运动鞋零售 商、两度入选《财富》500强的行业巨头，这一举措引发市场震动。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，就在不久前，包括耐克、阿迪达斯、斯凯奇在内的76家鞋企联名致信白宫，请求豁免所谓的"对等关税"，因为新关税政策已 对平价鞋企构成"生存威胁"，若政策持续，部分企业恐面临倒闭风险。 新关税政策下，一双原本售价1100元的球鞋，如今消费者要支付近1700元，这让主打"高性价比"的斯凯奇陷入两难境地。机构普遍认为，斯凯奇选择此时私 有化，实为规避上市公司监管压力，以便在关税风波中掌握更大的经营自主权。 斯凯奇获3G资本溢价收购 2024年，斯凯奇销售额近90亿美元，同比增长12%。过去五年，公司营收几乎翻了一番。作为斯凯奇最大的海外市场，中国市场的高速发展起到了关键作 用。 在刚过去的2025财年第一季度，斯凯奇实现了创纪录的24.1亿美元季度销售额，其中，国际销售额占比达65%。按区域看，欧洲、中东和非洲地区销售额增 长了14%，美洲地区销售额 ...

长按即可参与 尽管英伟达（NASDAQ:NVDA）过去表现辉煌，但分析师还预测其每股收益增长率将会放缓。 英伟达股价仍高于行业平均水平。其高市盈率和企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润比率对投资者构成 了严重风险。迄今为止，几乎没有什么变化。只有贸易紧张局势带来的风险大幅上升。 前段时间有消息称， 由于美国政府要求从美国向华出口芯片必须获得许可证，或将支付出口 H20 图形处理器 (GPU) 相关的 55 亿美元季度费用。 下面的图表是根据上面的表格制作的，显示英伟达的销售额一直在稳步增长。 在《纽约时报》 报道 特朗普政府正在采取措施打击 DeepSeek（ 英伟达向其 供应芯片） 后， 英 伟达股价进一步下跌。 对英伟达和其他依赖大中华市场的高科技公司来说，向该市场运输 H20 图形处理器的 费用可能只是一个开始。 此外，特朗普的关税可能导致美国经济放缓。美联储主席鲍威尔也 表示 ，特朗普的关税可能对 美联储构成挑战。这是因为关税可能会在不久的将来推高通胀，同时导致美国经济放缓。正如鲍 威尔所说，特朗普的关税" 可能会让我们离目标更远 "。换句话说，美联储将陷入" 进退维谷 "的 境地，不知道是放松还是收紧货币政 ...

全球贸易战的潜在后果引发了市场的担忧，投资者对避险资产的需求增加。黄金作为一种传统的避险资 产，其需求在市场不确定性增加时往往会显著上升。特朗普对海外生产的电影征收100%的关税，进一 步加剧了市场的不确定性，推动了黄金的避险需求。 周二（北京时间5月6日），现货黄金交投于3332.10美元附近，周一金价上涨超过2%，受美元走软和避 险需求推动。市场正在等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定，同时关注贸易局势的最新发展。现货金上 涨2.3%，至每盎司3315.09美元；美国期金收涨2.4%，报3322.3美元。美国总统特朗普宣布对海外生产 的电影征收100%的关税，再次引发了对全球贸易战潜在后果的担忧。交易员们在等待美联储主席鲍威 尔将于周三发表的评论，以获得有关利率路径的线索。 黄金价格上涨的驱动因素 美元走软 美元的走软是推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素之一。美元作为全球主要储备货币，其汇率的波动对黄金价 格有着显著影响。美元走软使得黄金对持有其他货币的投资者来说更具吸引力，从而推动了黄金价格的 上涨。 避险需求增加 黄金市场的避险需求与政策预期 ETO外汇认为黄金市场的上涨反映了美元走软和避险需求的增加。尽管市场普 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides views and strategies for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, log, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). The overall market shows a mixed trend, with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and some to have potential investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost collapse may lead to a post-holiday price decline. Suggest a long PX and short SC strategy. Supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, and the de-stocking rate may slow down [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short SC strategy. Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and the de-stocking pattern continues. Consider a 6 - 9 positive spread operation [9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. Suggest a long PTA and short MEG strategy. Supply will continue to increase, and port inventory de-stocking is difficult [9]. Rubber - Expected to trade in a range. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and price differentials [10][11]. Synthetic Rubber - Expected to face downward pressure and trade in a range. Although the valuation provides some support, the driving force is downward due to the decline in crude oil prices during the holiday [14][16]. Asphalt - Expected to weaken following oil prices, with the crack spread likely to continue to recover. Current production capacity utilization has decreased, and inventory shows a mixed trend [17][29]. LLDPE - The trend is weak. Trade war impacts and high supply with weak demand are the main factors. New capacity is expected to be put into operation, and demand from downstream industries is limited [30][31]. PP - Prices have slightly declined, and trading volume has decreased. The market is weakly sorted, and downstream demand is flat after pre-holiday stocking [34][35]. Caustic Soda - Expected to trade in a range in the short term but face pressure later. Demand is in the off-season, and supply reduction is needed to balance the market [37][38]. Pulp - Expected to trade in a wide range. Port inventory is at a relatively high level, and downstream demand has not improved significantly [42][44]. Log - Expected to trade weakly in a range. The number of incoming ships and the volume of incoming goods have decreased [47][51]. Methanol - Expected to operate weakly. The market is in a pattern of high domestic production, high imports, high profits, and gradually increasing inventory [52][55]. Urea - Expected to trade in a range with increased support at the lower end. Production enterprise inventory may decline, and the futures market is expected to be volatile [57][58]. Styrene - Expected to trade weakly. The pure benzene market is in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, and downstream negative feedback is expected to be transmitted [60][61]. Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. The market is expected to be stable to slightly strong in the short term, with stable production and weak downstream demand [63][65]. LPG - The support from crude oil is weakening. Pay attention to the inter-month positive spread strategy. The market shows neutral trend strength, with changes in production capacity utilization [67][74]. PVC - Expected to trade weakly. High production and high inventory structure are difficult to alleviate in the short term, and the market is under pressure from supply and demand [76][77]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The external spot price has dropped significantly, and the short-term trend is expected to weaken further. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has slightly corrected following crude oil, and the spread between high and low sulfur in the external market has widened [80]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to trade at a low level in a range. Hold a light short position in the 10 - 12 reverse spread [82].

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of trade tensions has led to a correction in gold prices, which had previously surged due to escalating trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - In early April, the U.S. announced reciprocal tariff measures, significantly escalating global trade tensions and driving gold prices to reach $3,500 [1]. - By mid to late April, signals from the Trump administration indicated a de-escalation in trade tensions, which, along with negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear issue and the Ukraine conflict, contributed to a decline in gold prices to around $3,260 [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Trump administration's tariff policies have raised concerns among international investment banks and the Federal Reserve regarding the uncertainty of the U.S. economy, leading to a downward revision of growth forecasts [4]. - Federal Reserve officials have hinted at potential interest rate cuts, with indications that a rate cut could occur as early as June if economic data supports such a move [4]. Group 3: Dollar Credibility and Gold Prices - The imposition of tariffs has disrupted normal international trade, prompting a shift towards non-dollar settlements, which undermines the credibility of the U.S. dollar [5]. - The U.S. is facing a significant fiscal challenge, with $9.2 trillion in debt maturing this year and a projected budget deficit of approximately $2 trillion, raising concerns about the ability to meet these obligations [5]. - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may resort to printing money to purchase debt, further eroding the dollar's credibility and supporting a continued rise in gold prices [5].