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人民币破7,但“6时代”真的那么容易吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-27 01:19
近日,离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中突破7.0整数关口,创下15个月以来的新高,距离市场期待的"6"字头 仅一步之遥。自今年4月以来,人民币兑美元开启持续升值通道,累计升值幅度已达6%,打破了此前两 年多的震荡格局。这波升值行情不仅牵动着金融市场的神经,也与普通民众的留学、旅游消费,以及企 业的进出口经营息息相关。 作为两种核心货币的比价,人民币兑美元的走势从来都是内外因素共同作用的结果。从美元走弱的外部 推力,到中国经济韧性的内部支撑,再到市场季节性行为的叠加,多重力量共同促成了本轮升值行情。 而展望未来,人民币是否会顺利迈入"6"时代,又将受到哪些变量的扰动? 如果说美元走弱是"东风",那么中国经济的稳健表现与人民币资产吸引力的提升,则是人民币能够接住 这波东风的根本底气。 经济基本面的韧性不断超出市场预期。2025年11月,中国国民经济运行数据显示,出口增速由降转升, 达到5.7%,前11个月货物贸易顺差更是首次突破1万亿美元,创下历史同期新高。充足的贸易顺差带来 了稳定的外汇流入,为人民币汇率提供了直接的流动性支撑。同时,国际机构纷纷为中国经济投出"信 任票",国际货币基金组织、世界银行先后上调2025年中 ...
李波对话保罗·巴蒂斯塔:中国对人民币国际化保持谨慎,因为从美国的失败中看到了教训
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-27 01:14
12月25日上午,离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"这一整数关口,为2024年9月以来首次。有关人民币升值和人民币国际化的讨论也再次成为热点。 有了这样一家银行,它还能给那些被西方列入黑名单的国家贷款,例如俄罗斯、伊朗等。当然,朝鲜目前不是上合组织成员国——但如果朝鲜未来加入上合 组织,也可以享受同样的待遇。其他成员国也一样,无论是印度、巴基斯坦,只要是成员国,银行都能放贷。 李波:所以,这家银行实际上是通过发行成员国的本币债来扩大资金来源,对吧? 巴蒂斯塔:没错,初期当然以人民币为主,随后也可以逐步扩展到其他重要的本币市场。我给中国的建议是,不必等到所有上合成员国都达成共识。如果由 中国牵头,一群团结的核心国家先推进组建这家银行,就放手去做。其他国家如果感兴趣,之后也能加入。 随着美国经济的波动和美元霸权地位面临的挑战,越来越多的国家开始寻求减少对美元的依赖。这一趋势为人民币国际化提供了新的机遇,但同时也伴随着 复杂的风险和挑战。 今年9月在天津举行的上海合作组织成员国元首理事会第二十五次会议上,各成员国重申了成立上合组织开发银行的重要性。评论广泛认为,此举旨在规避 以美元为主导的贸易日益增加的风险,有助于减少 ...
绝对主角!黄金、白银上演疯狂假日行情:低流动性催生“暴动”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-27 01:11
相比之下,美股波动性跌至年内低位。 节后首个交易日,避险情绪、供需失衡等因素继续推动资产规模较小的贵金属市场狂欢。相比之下,人工智能AI泡沫 担忧、货币政策不明朗让流动性更好的明星科技股失去了短期进一步上行的动力。 美股波澜不惊 作为节前公布的重磅数据,美国三季度国内市场总值(GDP)表现强劲,但美债利率却未出现相应上扬,美国10年期 国债收益率徘徊在4.17%,10年期与2年期国债利差保持31个基点的正值区间。 BK asset management宏观策略师施罗斯伯格(Boris Schlossberg)在接受第一财经采访时表示,这向市场释放的信号 是:当前货币政策虽处于限制性区间,但并不会进一步收紧,是美元走弱、股市企稳的核心逻辑。他认为,短期内股 市表现近似于 "低波动套息资产"——标普500指数与纳斯达克综合指数保持强势,市场波动性整体受到压制,如恐慌 指数(VIX )徘徊在年内低点附近。 这与市场对权重人工智能领域的担忧情绪不无关系——过度投资与成本收益失衡。仅OpenAI 一家就计划未来数年投 入1.4万亿美元。科技巨头同样如此,这种 "烧钱换增长"的模式高度依赖外部资金,一旦融资断档便会引发连 ...
贵金属狂欢引领年末行情,美股微跌终结连涨,中概股逆势走强
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-27 01:04
在年末的钟声即将敲响之际,全球金融市场再次展现了其变幻莫测的一面。美股市场在经历了一波连涨 之后,于周五(12月26日)出现了窄幅震荡,三大指数集体微跌,为全年的行情画上了一个暂时的逗 号。与此同时,贵金属市场却异军突起,金银价格同步创下历史新高,成为年末市场的一大亮点。 美股震荡,科技股与芯片股表现分化 周五,美股市场呈现出窄幅震荡的态势,道琼斯指数微跌0.04%,报48710.97点;标普500指数下跌 0.03%,收于6929.94点;纳斯达克综合指数也下滑0.09%,至23593.10点。尽管三大指数均有所回落, 但市场分析人士指出,这更多是技术性调整和仓位布局的结果,而非基本面出现重大变化。 在个股方面,大型科技股表现分化。英伟达凭借与AI芯片初创公司Groq的技术授权协议及人才招揽, 股价上涨超过1%,收于11月13日以来的最高水平。然而,特斯拉、脸书、谷歌、苹果和微软等科技巨 头则纷纷下跌,跌幅在0.06%至2.1%之间。芯片股方面,费城半导体指数微涨0.05%,但个股表现参差 不齐,台积电涨超1%,而ARM和恩智浦半导体则下跌超过1%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 -- | | --- | ...
贵金属“疯狂” 现货白银涨超10% 纽约钯金涨14.1% 现货黄金涨超1%!上期所连发两条通知
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-27 00:01
美股三大指数收盘均微跌,纳指跌0.09%,本周累涨1.22%;道指跌0.04%,本周累涨1.2%;标普500指数跌0.03%,本 周累涨1.4%。 大型科技股涨跌不一,特斯拉跌超2%,谷歌、苹果、微软、Meta等小幅下跌;英伟达涨超1%,亚马逊、奈飞、英特 尔小幅上涨。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.72%,本周累计上涨0.64%。小鹏汽车涨超6%,蔚来涨近4%,阿里巴巴、百度涨超1%; 霸王茶姬跌2.54%。 WTI原油期货结算价收跌2.76%,报56.74美元/桶;布伦特原油期货结算价收跌2.57%,报60.64美元/桶。 国际金银续创新高。COMEX金期货涨1.31%,报4562美元/盎司,本周累计上涨3.98%。COMEX白银期货涨11.15%, 报79.68美元/盎司,本周累计上涨18.06%。 现货黄金涨1.17%,报4531.87美元/盎司。 现货白银日内涨幅达10.24%,报79.15美元/盎司,年内涨幅超173%。 纽约白银日内涨幅达11.15%,报79.678美元/盎司。 纽约钯金涨14.1%,报2061.65美元/盎司。 上海期货交易所的铜期货价格站上每吨10万元人民币关口。纽约商品交易所 ...
重磅,人民币回归6时代,特朗普目的达到?欧央行:美元霸权结束
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 16:33
Group 1 - The offshore RMB has surged past the 7 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9960, marking its return to the 6 range for the first time since September of last year, driven by year-end corporate foreign exchange settlements and strong economic data from China [2] - The appreciation of the RMB benefits consumers, making overseas purchases and studying abroad cheaper, while it poses challenges for export companies, particularly smaller firms, as their profit margins are squeezed due to lower RMB returns from USD-denominated sales [4] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate to maintain stability, as the RMB's strength is supported by a robust trade surplus, but future domestic demand and credit conditions could necessitate policy support [4] Group 2 - The weakening of the USD is linked to President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and his push for lower interest rates to alleviate the US debt burden, which has led to a decline in the USD index from 110 to below 100 [6][9] - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve raises concerns about its independence, as he appoints individuals who support his monetary policy agenda, potentially undermining global investor confidence in the USD [8][9] - The European Central Bank, under Lagarde, is seizing the opportunity to challenge the USD's dominance, advocating for the euro's increased role in international trade and financial systems, as the euro's share of global reserves has risen to 20% [11][13] Group 3 - The return of the RMB to the 6 range is part of a broader shift in the global currency landscape, with the weakening USD accelerating de-dollarization efforts and increasing the euro's prominence [13] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and the European economic landscape suggests that while RMB assets are becoming attractive to foreign investors, companies must adapt to currency fluctuations and enhance product competitiveness [13] - The overall currency dynamics reflect a competition of national strengths, with China's economic resilience and foreign investment inflows supporting a stable RMB, while the central bank will manage volatility to prevent extreme fluctuations [13]
有色金属、贵金属大涨!交易所出手了!
券商中国· 2025-12-26 15:34
近期,有色金属和贵金属市场连续大涨,铜、黄金、白银等价格接连刷新历史纪录。 12月26日,截至21时,伦敦金价格最高突破4500美元/盎司,年内涨幅超71%;伦敦银价格突破74美元/盎司,年内涨幅逼近 160%;LME铜价则是突破12000美元/吨。国内市场同步上涨,众多小金属更是涨幅惊人。 为了防范市场风险,12月26日,上海期货交易所(下称"上期所")连发两条通知,一方面提示市场做好风险控制;另一方面 就元旦期间相关品种交易保证金比例、涨跌停板幅度等做出安排。业内人士认为,此举有助于维护市场稳健运行,引导投资 者理性参与。 上期所连发两条通知 上期所在通知中称,近期国际形势复杂多变,有色金属和贵金属品种波动较大,请各有关单位采取相应措施,提示投资者做 好风险防范工作,理性投资,共同维护市场平稳运行。 在另一条通知中,上期所还对黄金白银期货相关合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度做出调整:自2025年12月30日(星期 二)收盘结算时起,黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%,套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为16%,一般持仓交易保 证金比例调整为17%; 白银AG2602合约的涨跌停板幅度仍为15%,套保持仓 ...
金银铜价格频破历史纪录
第一财经· 2025-12-26 15:26
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recent surge in prices of precious and non-ferrous metals, with gold, silver, and copper reaching historical highs, driven by a combination of global liquidity expectations and supply-demand tensions [3][4]. Price Movements - As of December 26, 2025, the spot prices for gold and silver reached $4531.284 per ounce and $75.649 per ounce, respectively. In the domestic futures market, Shanghai gold and silver also hit historical highs, with Shanghai silver rising by 6.60% to close at 18319 yuan per kilogram, and Shanghai gold reaching a peak of 1023.96 yuan per gram before closing at 1016.30 yuan per gram, a 0.75% increase [3]. - Copper prices also set new records, with LME copper hitting $12282 per ton and Shanghai copper futures rising by 3.6% to reach 99730 yuan per ton before a slight pullback [3]. Market Analysis - The current market dynamics reflect a confluence of factors including expectations of global liquidity easing, structural supply-demand tensions in strategic resources, and speculative trading behaviors. Analysts caution that prices have significantly diverged from fundamentals, indicating a high level of speculative sentiment that could lead to volatility [3][4]. - Analysts from various firms note that while long-term bullish factors like "de-dollarization" exist, the rapid short-term price increases may have over-traded these factors, raising potential risks for market stability [4]. Supply Chain Insights - The supply side for copper has been impacted by unexpected production issues at major overseas mines, leading to downward revisions in global copper supply expectations since September. Additionally, U.S. tariffs on copper are drawing refined copper towards the U.S., tightening supply in other markets and fueling bullish sentiment [4]. Regulatory Measures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented risk management measures in response to the volatile market conditions, including adjustments to trading limits and margin requirements for gold and silver futures to enhance market resilience and prevent extreme fluctuations [5]. - These measures aim to guide investors towards rational participation in the market, especially during the sensitive year-end period when liquidity may change abruptly [5]. Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend a dual approach for investors: maintaining a strategic bullish outlook while avoiding chasing prices too high. Focus should be on accumulating positions during pullbacks for core assets like gold and copper, while being cautious with silver, platinum, and palladium [6].
2026年,黄金“疯牛”行情还能走多远?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-12-26 13:55
Core Viewpoint - In 2025, gold emerged as one of the best-performing assets globally, with a cumulative increase of over 70%, while the S&P 500 index rose by approximately 17% [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve restarted its easing cycle in September 2025, cutting rates by 25 basis points, followed by another similar cut in October [2] - Market expectations for a third consecutive rate cut in December increased due to signs of economic weakness and dovish signals from key policymakers [2] - The market anticipates an additional 60 basis points of easing in 2026, equivalent to two potential 25 basis point cuts and a possible third cut [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Tariff Policies - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising tensions between India and Pakistan, have significantly driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - The imposition of comprehensive tariffs by the U.S. has further heightened demand for gold, as countries retaliate with their own tariff threats [3] - Despite some conflicts easing, gold continues to attract investment as a hedge against high-risk assets, particularly in a volatile stock market environment [3] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Reserves and De-dollarization - Central banks are increasingly accumulating gold to diversify their reserves, with significant purchases from countries like China and India [4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 634 tons, significantly above pre-2022 averages, providing strong support for gold prices [4] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue into 2026 amid ongoing trade policy uncertainties [4] Group 4: Gold-Silver Ratio and Market Dynamics - The gold-silver ratio is approaching the 60 mark, which may trigger a rebound in gold prices as it indicates potential for gold to catch up with silver's performance [5][6] - Despite gold's strong performance, silver and platinum have outperformed gold, with silver's price increasing over 150% in 2025 [6] - The recent volatility in silver prices has raised questions about the sustainability of its upward trend, while gold remains strong [6] Group 5: 2026 Outlook and Price Projections - The factors driving gold's record highs in 2025 are expected to persist into early 2026, with bullish targets potentially reaching $5,000 to $5,200 per ounce [8] - Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, with significant upside risks if private sector purchases exceed expectations [8] - However, potential challenges include cautious behavior from central banks and the possibility of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts being less aggressive than currently anticipated, which could slow gold's momentum in the latter half of 2026 [8]
金银铜价格频破历史纪录,投机氛围下警惕变盘风险
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-12-26 13:49
Group 1 - Precious metals and base metals, including gold, silver, and copper, have reached historical highs, with London gold peaking at $4531.284 per ounce and LME copper at $12282 per ton [1][2] - Domestic futures markets also saw significant increases, with Shanghai silver rising by 6.60% to 18658 yuan per kilogram and Shanghai gold reaching 1023.96 yuan per gram [1] - The current market dynamics are influenced by global liquidity easing expectations, structural supply-demand tensions, and speculative trading behaviors [1][2] Group 2 - Analysts indicate that while there are long-term bullish factors like "de-dollarization," the recent rapid price increases may have over-traded these factors, leading to heightened speculative sentiment [2] - Supply disruptions from major copper mines and reduced global copper supply expectations have contributed to bullish market sentiment, alongside U.S. monetary policy easing [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented risk management measures to stabilize the market amid significant volatility, including adjusting margin requirements and price limits for gold and silver futures [3][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a phase of "year-end fund repositioning and sentiment-driven trading," emphasizing the importance of risk management and position control over speculative predictions [4] - Investors are advised to maintain a strategic long position while avoiding chasing high prices, focusing on opportunities for accumulation during price corrections [3][4]