1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound space of the I2601 contract may be limited. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control. The Fed's expectation of a December interest rate cut has weakened, and the domestic macro - economic data in October was weaker than expected. The iron ore port inventory has increased for eight consecutive weeks, approaching the 160 - million - ton mark. Downstream steel mills generally purchase on demand. The stop - falling and rebound of molten iron support the spot, but the general performance of finished products may squeeze furnace materials [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price - As of the close on November 14, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 772.5 (+12) yuan/ton, and the price of Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was 838 (+6) yuan/dry ton [6] 3.1.2 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment decreased by 144,800 tons week - on - week. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total global iron ore shipment was 30.69 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144,800 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 25.486 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.106 million tons [5][6] 3.1.3 Arrival - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 544,800 tons. From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 27.693 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 544,800 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 27.412 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 477,200 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.258 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,100 tons [6] 3.1.4 Demand - The molten iron output increased by 26,600 tons. The average daily molten iron output was 2.3688 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9,400 tons [6] 3.1.5 Inventory - The port inventory increased by 188,710 tons. As of November 14, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 158.1284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,710 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 47,670 tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 90.7601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,070 tons [6] 3.1.6 Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 38.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.62 percentage points [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated higher. The price of the I2601 contract was stronger than that of the I2605 contract. On the 14th, the price difference was 29 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8.5 yuan/ton [14] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipt and Net Position - On November 14, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 900, a week - on - week increase of 100. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the ore futures contract was 27,363, a decrease of 8,080 compared with the previous week [21] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On November 14, the price of 61% Australian Macarthur fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 838 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 14th, the basis was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton [27] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From November 3 to November 9, 2025, the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China decreased. The total global iron ore shipment and the total shipment from Australia and Brazil both decreased week - on - week [31] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 158.1284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 188,710 tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.4028 million tons, an increase of 47,300 tons. The inventory of Australian ore, Brazilian ore, and trade ore all increased. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 90.7601 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,070 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.9263 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 39,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.02 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 days [34] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability Days - As of November 13, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 21 days, a week - on - week increase of 0 days. On November 13, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2077, a week - on - week decrease of 27 [39] 3.3.4 Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a decrease of 5.017 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3%; from January to October, the cumulative import was 1.028886 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 63.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; the average daily output of concentrate powder was 401,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the inventory was 396,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 241,000 tons [42] 3.3.5 Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In September 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 84.267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6337 million tons; from January to August, the cumulative output was 755.6713 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.32%. In September, the output of iron concentrate powder from 433 domestic iron mines was 22.845 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 356,000 tons, a decrease of 1.5%; from January to September, the cumulative output was 206.918 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.918 million tons, a decrease of 4.1% [46] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Output - In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, China's crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] 3.4.2 Steel Import and Export - In October 2025, China exported 9.782 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imported 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, the cumulative steel export was 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%; the cumulative import was 5.041 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [49] 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Molten Iron Output - On November 14, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.81%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.22 percentage points; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3688 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9,400 tons [52] 3.5 Options Market - Consider buying out - of - the - money put options on rebounds as the molten iron output has stopped falling and rebounded, but the iron ore port inventory continues to increase, and the general performance of finished products may squeeze furnace materials [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic includes short - term hedging factors (Sino - US talks' negative impact is realized, but geopolitical risks remain; US employment weakens and inflation is moderate, so Fed rate - cut expectations persist), hedging attributes (results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations are announced, and geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East remain), monetary attributes (more Fed policymakers are cautious about a December rate cut, but the end of the US government shutdown and economic data recovery may create conditions for a rate cut next month), and commodity attributes (CRB commodity index is weakly oscillating, and RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices) [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. Shanghai gold closed down 0.29%, and Shanghai silver closed down 0.04% [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $4174.50 per ounce, down $26.90 (-0.64%) from the previous day and up $189.70 (4.76%) from last week; London gold is $4195.65 per ounce, up $58.90 (1.42%) from the previous day and up $209.15 (5.25%) from last week; Shanghai gold主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 953.20 yuan per gram, down 8.02 yuan (-0.83%) from the previous day and up 31.94 yuan (3.47%) from last week; Gold T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 947.98 yuan per gram, down 10.69 yuan (-1.12%) from the previous day and up 30.34 yuan (3.31%) from last week [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex gold positions are 528,789 lots (100 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai gold主力 (SHFE) positions are 113,597 lots (1 kg per lot), down 10,642 lots (-8.57%) from the previous day and down 23,063 lots (-16.88%) from last week; Gold TD (SGE) positions are 45,964 lots (1 kg per lot), down 5,368 lots (-2.25%) from the previous day and down 21,288 lots (-8.37%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 tons (-1.08%) from last week; Shanghai gold (SHFE) inventory is 18 tons, up 1.57% from the previous day and up 1.32% from last week [2]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 66,417.00, an increase of 568.00 (19.11%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 13,012.00, a decrease of 44.00 (3.74%) [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Comex silver主力合约收盘价 is $52.23 per ounce, down $1.00 (-1.88%) from the previous day and up $4.39 (9.17%) from last week; London silver is $53.87 per ounce, up $2.34 (4.53%) from the previous day and up $5.19 (10.65%) from last week; Shanghai silver主力收盘价 (SHFE) is 12,375.00 yuan per kg, down 213.00 yuan (-1.69%) from the previous day and up 891.00 yuan (7.76%) from last week; Silver T + D收盘价 (SGE) is 12,326.00 yuan per kg, down 237.00 yuan (-1.89%) from the previous day and up 846.00 yuan (7.37%) from last week [6]. - **Positions and Inventories**: Comex silver positions are 165,805 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), unchanged; Shanghai silver主力 (SHFE) positions are 4,708,155 lots (1 kg per lot), down 92,040 lots (-1.92%) from the previous day and up 1,025,400 lots (27.84%) from last week; Silver TD (SGE) positions are 4,040,198 lots (1 kg per lot), down 36,092 lots (-0.89%) from the previous day and down 253,820 lots (-5.91%) from last week; LBMA inventory is 26,255 tons, an increase of 1,673 tons (6.81%); Comex silver inventory is 14,813 tons, unchanged from the previous day and down 118 tons (-0.79%) from last week; Shanghai silver (SHFE) inventory is 577 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-7.41%); The total explicit inventory is 42,467 tons, a decrease of 46 tons (-0.11%) from the previous day and a decrease of 164 tons (-0.39%) from last week [6]. - **Net Positions of Top 10 Members**: The total net long positions of the top 5 members are 112,336.00, an increase of 8,357.00 (14.72%); the total net short positions of the top 5 members are 39,418.00, an increase of 2,773.00 (5.17%) [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal fund target rate upper limit is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; discount rate is 4.00%, down 0.25 from the previous value; reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, down 0.25 from the previous value; Fed total assets are $6,631.098 billion, down $608 million (-0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49%, an increase of 0.01; 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.40%, an increase of 0.03 (1.27%); US dollar index is 99.48, down 0.14 (-0.14%) from the previous day and down 0.72 (-0.72%) from last week; US Treasury yield spread (3 - month to 10 - year) is 0.38, down 0.01 (-2.56%) from the previous day and up 0.05 (13.16%) from last week [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: US Treasury yield spread (2 - year to 10 - year) is - 0.15, an increase of 0.03 (-16.67%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.06 (-28.57%) from last week; US - EU yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 1.53, unchanged; US - China yield spread (10 - year bond yield) is 2.84, an increase of 0.00 (0.01%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.02 (0.87%) from last week; CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.00, unchanged; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30, unchanged [10]. - **Inflation, Economy, and Other Aspects**: In the US, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and other aspects have corresponding data changes, such as GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, down 0.30; GDP (annualized month - on - month) is 3.80, an increase of 4.40; unemployment rate is 4.30%, an increase of 0.10; non - farm payrolls monthly change is 2.20 million, a decrease of 0.57 million; etc [10]. - **Other Attributes**: Geopolitical risk index is 103.52, an increase of 4.85 (4.91%); VIX index is 20.00, an increase of 2.49 (14.22%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.50 (2.56%) from last week; CRB commodity index is 302.35, down 0.31 (-0.10%) from the previous day and up 1.44 (0.48%) from last week; offshore RMB is 7.1105, a decrease of 0.0153 (-0.21%) [11].

11月14日午盘开盘后，橡胶主力合约维持弱势走势。目前全球天然橡胶供应处于高产期，不过中国云南产区进入减产期，12月份 开始割胶进度将逐步放缓，供给压力料将减轻。本周隆众公布的青岛地区天然橡胶总库存继续增加至44.95万吨。近期需求缓慢走 弱，天胶供应趋降，橡胶库存增加，成本支撑稳定，预计维持低位震荡。 【机构观点】 中辉期货：综合来看，橡胶基本面变化不大，供应压力持续、需求改善有限、成本支撑较强，上有压力、下有支撑。作为周期性 较强的品种，短期走势基本与供需没有多少关系，近期期价走势更多跟随宏观市场情绪运行为主，关注美联储降息预期变化以及 国内政策端变动情况。后续主力维持"买低不买高"思路，有效上破周线图20日线之前、盘面大概率维持低位振荡走势为主，倾向于 在近期低位轻仓埋伏或更有性价比。 ...

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, initially surging over $60 before plummeting by $100, followed by a rebound to around 4200, indicating a high-level consolidation phase [1][4][8] Price Movements - After a sharp decline, gold rebounded to approximately 4210, with resistance seen at 4245 [4][8] - Potential support levels are identified at 4145 and 4100, with further adjustments expected if these levels are breached [6][8] Influencing Factors - The U.S. government ending its shutdown has impacted market sentiment, leading to concerns over U.S. debt and a strengthening of bond yields, which in turn has affected gold prices [9] - The absence of key economic indicators, such as the non-farm payroll and CPI, has created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, contributing to gold's price fluctuations [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management in trading [10] - The gold trading team claims an accuracy rate of 85% or higher, highlighting the potential for significant profit margins in their trading strategies [11]

Core Viewpoint - The significant fluctuations in spot gold prices this week reflect heightened market sentiment, with prices reaching a new high since October 21 before retreating due to profit-taking, ultimately closing at $4171.2 per ounce, a daily decline of 0.58% [1] Short-term Catalysts - Increased demand for safe-haven assets due to a 42-day U.S. government shutdown, delays in key economic data, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and international trade relations have driven funds into gold [3] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have risen to over 65%, leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index below 99.5, which reduces the holding cost of gold [3] - Technical support for gold prices was established after stabilizing above $4180, triggering systematic buying strategies and attracting further bullish investments after breaking the $4200 resistance [3] Long-term Structural Factors - Central banks globally have net purchased 902 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for about 30% of annual gold production, with China increasing its reserves for 12 consecutive months, totaling 7.409 million ounces [4] - The share of the U.S. dollar in global reserves has decreased to 55%, with some views suggesting that gold is gradually becoming an alternative asset to replace part of sovereign credit [4] - The function of gold is evolving from a traditional inflation hedge to a strategic allocation against sovereign credit risk, indicating a structural shift in institutional investment logic [5] Trend Outlook - The support logic for gold prices remains solid in the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is not yet over, and the U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, alongside a diversification process in the global reserve system, enhancing gold's role as a credit hedge in asset portfolios [6] - Some institutions predict that gold prices could reach the range of $7000 to $8000 by 2030, while acknowledging that increased volatility during high price periods has become the new norm, with market sentiment driving significant price fluctuations [6]

【导读】加密货币市场集体暴跌，超23万人被爆仓 中国基金报 晨曦 综合整理 加密货币市场，全线暴跌！ 11月14日，比特币再度跳水，跌破97000美元/枚，24小时内跌幅超4%。 以太坊同样走低，日内逼近3100美元/枚，24小时内跌幅近10%。 此外，索拉纳币、狗狗币、XRP、艾达币等主流币种，日内均有明显跌幅。 | | 排名 | 而种 | 价格 | 价格(24h%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ರ್ | 1 | ਫ਼ਿ ВТС | $97322 | -4.71% | | 8 | 2 | + ETH | $3138.77 | -9.71% | | ರ್ | 3 | 를 SOL | $140.2 | -9.41% | | 8 | 4 | X XRP | $2.256 | -9.27% | | ರಿ | 5 | HYPE | $36.951 | -4.50% | | 8 | 6 | DOGE | $0.1606 | -8.35% | | ರ್ | 7 | BNB | $904.63 | -6.03% | | ರ್ | 8 | 2) ZEC | $493.78 | -4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Futures** - The RMB strengthened significantly against the US dollar due to multiple internal and external factors, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom with a slowly declining bottom" [2] - Short - term stock indices may be under pressure, but with policy support, they are expected to oscillate [3][5] - Treasury bond mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term positions can be bought on dips [6] - **Commodities** - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise, and short - term corrections are opportunities to add long positions [8][10] - **Copper**: The external copper price pulled back after rising, and the Shanghai copper is likely to follow. The price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][12] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is in high - level oscillation; alumina is weakly running; cast aluminum alloy is in high - level oscillation [13][14] - **Zinc**: It is in high - level oscillation with strong support below [14] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They continue to oscillate, waiting for clear signals, and the downside space is greater than the upside space [15][16] - **Tin**: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is prone to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a view of oscillating strongly, but callback risks should be watched out for [18] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to oscillate widely due to weak fundamentals [19][20] - **Lead**: It is in strong - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to lower entry opportunities [21] - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range, with rebar in the 2900 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3100 - 3400 range [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation with no significant driving force [24] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [25][26] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and cost support [26] - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: It will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term, with room for further decline [28][30] - **LPG**: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - **PTA - PX**: They are expected to oscillate strongly following the cost side in the short term, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [36][38] - **PP**: It will oscillate at the bottom with limited downward space [39][41] - **PE**: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and the upward driving force is insufficient [42][44] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - **Asphalt**: It is weakly viewed in the short term, but pay attention to the trading rhythm [49][50] - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - **Urea**: The short - term market is stable and strong, but the high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - **Glass**: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp is expected to oscillate in the short term, and offset paper is expected to stabilize weakly [57][58] - **Log**: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: In China, the consumer price index has rebounded marginally, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. In the US, the government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to the release of economic data and the Fed's decision - making [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB strengthened against the US dollar due to multiple factors. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [2] - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index may be under pressure due to weak credit and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, but it is expected to oscillate with policy support [3][5] - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term bond market is in narrow - range oscillation. In the context of weak economic fundamentals, long positions can be held [5][6] Commodities - **Precious Metals** - **Gold and Silver**: The price pulled back after rising. The 12 - month rate - cut expectation is uncertain. In the medium - to - long term, the price will continue to rise [8][9][10] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The external copper price pulled back after rising. The Shanghai copper is likely to follow, and the price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][11][12] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is affected by funds and industry fundamentals; alumina is in an oversupply situation; cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum [13][14] - **Zinc**: It is in high - level oscillation, with the smelting end having a willingness to cut production in November, and the bottom support is strong [14] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They continue to oscillate, with cost support weakening and limited upward momentum [15][16] - **Tin**: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended due to supply shortages [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a situation of increased production and inventory reduction, with good demand, and is expected to oscillate strongly [17][18] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They have weak demand, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [19][20] - **Lead**: It is in strong - level oscillation. After the supply problem is gradually solved, it will slowly return to balance [21] - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a macro vacuum period, and the core contradiction returns to the fundamentals. Rebar's supply - demand balance improves marginally, while hot - rolled coil has high inventory [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation, and the port inventory is in a cumulative trend [23][24] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term price may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [24][25][26] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are in a situation of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate [26] - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory has increased more than expected, and it will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term [28][29][30] - **LPG**: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - **PTA - PX**: The short - term supply - demand is strong, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [36][38] - **PP**: It will oscillate at the bottom, with supply pressure and improved demand during the "Double Eleven" [39][40][41] - **PE**: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change [42][44] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - **Asphalt**: It is weakly viewed in the short term, with a loose supply - demand pattern and cost - side influence [49][50] - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - **Urea**: The short - term market is stable and strong due to export quota increase, but high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - **Glass**: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper** - **Pulp**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with multiple long and short factors intertwined [57] - **Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to weaken and stabilize [58] - **Log**: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry was mentioned in the report [1] Core View - Multiple Fed officials signaled a cautious approach or opposition to a December rate cut, reducing the probability of a December rate cut to around 45%. Along with the end of the US government shutdown and expectations of a large amount of economic data release, precious metal prices may adjust in the short term. However, factors such as global debt expansion, fiscal deficit, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the medium and long term [1] Summary by Relevant Content Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On November 14, 2025, the futures active - contract closing price was 961.22 yuan/gram, up 15.46 yuan from the previous day and 39.96 yuan from last week. The spot Shanghai Gold T + D closing price was 944.31 yuan/gram, up 14.36 yuan from the previous day [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The futures active - contract closing price was 12,588 yuan/ten - grams, up 515 yuan from the previous day and 1,104 yuan from last week. The spot Shanghai Silver T + D closing price was 12,563 yuan/ten - grams, up 471 yuan from the previous day [1] - **COMEX Gold**: The futures active - contract closing price was 4,174.50 dollars/ounce, down 26.90 dollars from the previous day but up 184.10 dollars from last week. The London Gold Spot price was 3,968.20 dollars/ounce, up 227.45 dollars from the previous day [1] - **COMEX Silver**: The futures active - contract closing price was 52.23 dollars/ounce, up 4.37 dollars from the previous day. The London Silver Spot price was 53.87 dollars/ounce, up 2.34 dollars from the previous day [1] Price Ratios - The price ratio of Shanghai Gold Futures to Shanghai Silver Futures was 76.36, down 3.86 from the previous day and 1.98 from last week. The ratio of London Gold Spot to London Silver Spot was 83.35, down 2.39 from the previous day [1] Other Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE Crude Oil was 463.70 yuan/barrel, down 16.70 yuan from the previous day and 14.20 yuan from last week. ICE Brent Crude was 63.11 dollars/barrel, up 0.43 dollars from the previous day and down 0.44 dollars from last week [1] - **Copper and Steel**: Shanghai Copper Futures was 86,840 yuan/ton, up 710 yuan from the previous day and 1,610 yuan from last week. Shanghai Rebar was 3,046 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day and 12 yuan from last week [1] Important Information - The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump's chief economic advisor estimated that the shutdown caused 60,000 job losses [1] - Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance before important economic data release. Some officials advocated caution, while others opposed the previous month's rate cut and said December's action would depend on data [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions. For London Gold, focus on support around 3,850 - 3,950 dollars/ounce and resistance around 4,180 - 4,384 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai Gold, focus on support around 870 - 890 yuan/gram and resistance around 960 - 1,000 yuan/gram. For London Silver, focus on support around 38 - 45 dollars/ounce and resistance around 55 - 60 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai Silver, focus on support around 9,500 - 10,500 yuan/ten - grams and resistance around 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ten - grams [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - A significant change in the price spread between the near-term and long-term WTI crude oil contracts has occurred, with the long-term contract price exceeding the near-term for the first time since February, indicating a "contango" structure and a clear signal of oversupply [1] - OPEC's latest report acknowledges a shift in the global oil market from under-supply to oversupply in Q3, with daily supply exceeding demand by 500,000 barrels, driven by record-high U.S. oil production and OPEC's decision to increase output to maintain market share [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its forecast for U.S. crude oil production to 13.58 million barrels per day by 2026, heightening concerns over inventory accumulation [3] Group 2: Commodity Market Trends - The market has reacted negatively to the oil sell-off, with WTI crude futures dropping 4.2% to $58.49 per barrel, marking the largest decline since June, while copper prices rose 1.08% to $10,944 per ton, reflecting a divergence in commodity market trends [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, leading to expectations of weaker economic indicators that may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in December, which in turn has weakened the dollar and supported copper prices [5] - The global copper supply is under pressure due to production issues in major mines, with the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) predicting a 150,000-ton shortage in global copper supply by 2025, reinforcing upward price momentum [5] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been amplified by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, with global gold ETF holdings reaching a five-year high of 3,892 tons in October [7] - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasing gold reserves to reduce reliance on the dollar, with annual purchases expected to remain between 70-80 tons over the next two years, providing long-term support for gold prices [7] - The divergence in price movements among oil, copper, and gold is attributed to differing driving factors, with oil prices being more directly influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, while copper and gold are supported by financial attributes and supply constraints [8][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's government can appoint more Fed officials, which may raise expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed. The possible end of the US federal government shutdown and the Fed's provision of liquidity, along with the expansion of fiscal policies globally and central banks' continuous gold - buying, as well as geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Gold - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 944.31 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.19 compared to the previous day and 26.80 compared to last week. The trading volume was 51666.00, down 11382.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 89616.00, with no change from the previous day but an increase of 1800.00 compared to last week [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4133.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 68.20 compared to the previous day and 260.10 compared to last week. The trading volume was 278020.00, up 33400.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 37575139.58, down 338082.64 from the previous day [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4136.75 dollars/ounce, with a change of 13.45 compared to the previous day and 185.65 compared to last week. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, with a change of 0.28 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Silver - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 12092.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of 227.00 compared to the previous day and 671.00 compared to last week. The trading volume was 870430.00, up 145316.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) was 583060.00, down 56880.00 from the previous day [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 53.23 dollars/ounce, with a change of 2.15 compared to the previous day and 6.33 compared to last week. The trading volume was 69857.00, up 41384.00 from the previous day. The inventory (in troy ounces) was 478191872.10, down 366186.53 from the previous day [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 51.54 dollars/ounce, with a change of 3.78 compared to the previous day and 0.29 compared to last week. iShare Silver ETF holdings were 482.31 tons, with a change of 1.29 compared to the previous day [1]. 3.1.3 Price Ratios - The ratio of Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 78.34, with a change of - 1.54 compared to the previous day and - 1.98 compared to last week. The ratio of New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 80.92, with a change of - 5.12 compared to the previous day and - 1.99 compared to last week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The Atlanta Fed President who advocates "no rate cut in December" will retire in February next year. The "third - in - command of the Fed" said the Fed may soon restart bond purchases to manage liquidity. US Treasury Secretary mentioned Trump's plan to issue $2000 tax refunds to families with annual incomes below $100,000 and "gradual" adjustment of US debt issuance [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - For silver, it is advisable to lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, the support level is around 870 - 890 and the resistance level is around 960 - 1000. For London silver, the support level is around 38 - 45 and the resistance level is around 55 - 60. For Shanghai silver, the support level is around 9500 - 10500 and the resistance level is around 12400 - 13000 [1].