截至今晨收盘，美股三大股指普跌，道指跌1.65%，纳指跌2.29%，标普跌1.65%。英伟达跌超3%，谷 歌跌超2%，特斯拉跌超6%，甲骨文跌超4%。热门中概股收盘普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.59%。 贵金属再现强势 11月13日纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌0.54%，报4172.84美元/盎司，北京时间11月13日20:59刷新日高至 4245.23美元/盎司，北京时间11月14日02:23出现一波短线跳水——从4200美元/盎司关口跌至4145.55美 元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货跌0.96%，报4173.00美元/盎司。 近期，黄金与白银价格在短暂调整后重拾强势，特别是周四白银表现亮眼：沪银价格创下上市新高，外 盘银价也一度逼近前期高点。期货日报记者了解到，这是宏观经济预期与品种自身基本面因素共振的结 果。 据金瑞期货研究所贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，贵金属强势上行最核心的驱动力，源于市场对美联储货币 政策即将转向的强烈预期。近期披露的一些非官方经济数据，例如降温的劳动力市场和持续疲软的消费 者信心指数，被市场普遍解读为美国经济活力放缓的明确信号，这极大地强化了投资者对美联储将在不 久后降息以应对潜在衰退风险的 ...

多位美联储官员在不同场合发表讲话，罕见地形成一致基调：市场对12月再次降息的押注可能过于激 进。 Crossmark公司首席执行官兼首席投资官鲍勃·多尔（Bob Doll）在评论中提到，市场对降息寄予厚望， 但从美联储官员的最新表态来看，"更多是一种可能选项，而不是已经承诺的路径"，投资者需要为利率 在更高水平维持更长时间做好心理准备。 期货市场的定价也随之调整。根据芝商所FedWatch工具的数据，在官员密集发表偏谨慎言论后，交易 员对美联储在12月再次降息的押注，从此前逾六成回落至约五成附近，反映市场对 12 月降息的信心正 在降温。 官员集体降温12月降息预期 在印第安纳州埃文斯维尔大学的一场活动上，穆萨莱姆表示，经过今年两次降息后，"政策利率已更接 近中性，而非轻度紧缩"。在他看来，美国通胀目前仍在3%左右，高于2%的目标，"仍需要对抗偏高的 通胀，同时为劳动力市场提供一定支持"。他预计，美国经济在四季度会略显疲弱，但明年一季度有望 回到趋势增速甚至略高水平。 穆萨莱姆坦言，前期支持降息更多是出于对就业的担忧，而在通胀黏性仍存、经济表现相对有韧性的背 景下，接下来"需要更加谨慎"，以防政策过度宽松。 ...

Group 1: Market Signals - Gold prices surged to $4,200, while oil prices fell below $58, indicating conflicting market signals [1][5] - The gold-oil ratio reached a historical high of 76.15, suggesting potential economic downturns when exceeding 25 [1] - The Dow Jones index reached a record high of 48,254.82, driven primarily by bank stocks [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - There is a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again in December, with 80% of economists predicting a 25 basis point cut [3] - The New York Fed President indicated a gradual return to asset purchases by the Fed, reinforcing market expectations for a shift in monetary policy [10] Group 3: Sector Performance - Bank stocks have become the biggest beneficiaries of the anticipated rate cuts, with hedge funds rapidly buying into global bank and insurance stocks [3] - The oil market is under dual pressure from supply and demand, with OPEC increasing production and refinery processing rates declining [5] - The U.S. Treasury market saw a rise, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 4.67 basis points to 4.0693% [8] Group 4: Global Market Trends - European stock markets showed strong performance, with indices like the FTSE and DAX reaching new highs, contrasting with global risk aversion [7] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.27%, reflecting a pullback in Chinese stocks amid potential tariff changes affecting e-commerce exports [7] - The U.S. stock market displayed a split performance, with the Dow Jones rising while the Nasdaq declined, indicating sector-specific trends [5][10] Group 5: Credit and Risk Assessment - The U.S. subprime auto loan default rate reached a historical high, highlighting rising credit risks despite the stock market's record highs [11] - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. stocks will underperform compared to emerging markets over the next decade, which may influence global capital flows [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares is driven not only by domestic funds but also by significant cross-market interactions, particularly influenced by the A50 index futures and the Hang Seng Index, alongside global macroeconomic expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 13, A-share indices closed strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 4029.50 points, up 0.73%, marking a ten-year high; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 13476.52 points; and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.55% to 3201.75 points [1]. - Over 3900 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a broad-based rally [1]. Group 2: Cross-Market Effects - The A50 index futures showed a strong upward trend, particularly with significant contributions from major stocks like CATL, which surged 7.51%, driving the ChiNext and Shenzhen indices higher [1]. - The Hang Seng Index also turned positive in sync with the A-share market's late rally, suggesting a short-term linkage between domestic and foreign capital through derivative markets [1][2]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December rose to 59.4%, reflecting increasing market expectations for monetary easing [2]. - A potential rate cut could enhance dollar liquidity and increase the attractiveness of global risk assets, leading to greater foreign investment in Chinese equities [2]. Group 4: Domestic Policy Signals - Domestic authorities have been signaling a commitment to maintaining market stability and investor confidence, with a focus on appropriate liquidity management [4]. - This suggests that the lower boundary of the A-share market has shifted from 3980 points to around 4000 points, providing a stronger short-term support level [5]. Group 5: Short-term and Mid-term Trends - Short-term technical indicators suggest that the Shanghai Composite Index may experience a narrow range of fluctuations or slight pullbacks, maintaining a consolidation pattern above 4000 points [6]. - In the mid-term, if the Fed's rate cut occurs alongside continued domestic easing policies, A-shares are expected to maintain high-level fluctuations and gradually increase, particularly benefiting sectors aligned with the A-share market [7]. Group 6: Conclusion - The recent high in A-shares reflects both internal fund dynamics and external market resonance, particularly driven by the A50 index futures, with supportive factors from Fed rate cut expectations and domestic stabilization policies [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals rose significantly, with gold underperforming silver. SHFE gold closed up 1.56%, and SHFE silver closed up 5.48%. The short - term core logic includes that the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, but geopolitical risks still exist; the US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, so the expectation of the Fed's rate cut still remains. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver decreased slightly [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex gold and London gold showed different changes. Domestic SHFE gold and gold T + D both increased. For example, the SHFE gold main contract closed at 935.98 yuan/gram, up 1.60% from the previous day [2]. - **Basis, Spread, and Ratio**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE gold - London gold and the gold - silver ratio changed to varying degrees. For instance, the SHFE gold - London gold basis increased by 194% from the previous day [2]. - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold, SHFE gold, and gold T + D positions and inventories changed. For example, the SHFE gold main contract position decreased by 9.72% compared with the previous week [2]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds and the position of the SPDR gold ETF decreased slightly [2]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Gold**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 27.55% [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: Comex silver and London silver prices changed slightly, while domestic SHFE silver and silver T + D prices increased significantly. For example, the SHFE silver main contract closed at 12,588 yuan/kg, up 4.27% from the previous day [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread data such as SHFE silver - London silver and the SHFE silver main contract basis changed greatly [6]. - **Position and Inventory**: Positions and inventories of Comex silver, SHFE silver, and silver T + D changed. For example, the SHFE silver main contract position increased by 30.16% compared with the previous week [6]. - **CFTC and ETF**: The net position of CFTC managed funds increased, while the position of the iShare silver ETF decreased slightly [6]. - **Top 10 Net Position Ranking of SHFE Futures Companies for Silver**: The net positions of the top 10 futures companies in the long and short positions changed. For example, the long - position net position of the top 10 companies increased by 7.67% [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets decreased by 0.00%, and M2 increased by 0.01% year - on - year [8]. - **Bond and Interest Rate Data**: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield increased by 1.27%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.72%, and the US bond spread (3 - month to 10 - year) increased by 27.59% [8]. - **Other Key Indicators**: Various indicators such as the US - EU interest rate spread, US - China interest rate spread, CPI, and economic growth data showed different changes [10]. - **Reserve and Ratio Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, and the ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves changed to varying degrees [12]. - **Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index remained unchanged, the VIX index decreased by 2.15%, the CRB commodity index decreased by 1.43%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.08% [12].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown interesting movements, initially retreating slightly before stabilizing and reaching a three-week high, approaching the level of $4,213 per ounce, closely linked to the situation in the United States [2] Fundamental Analysis - The impact of the U.S. government shutdown on the economy is becoming evident, with economists estimating that a prolonged shutdown could reduce quarterly GDP growth by 1.5% to 2% and lead to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [3] - Data from RevelioLabs indicates a reduction of 22,200 government employee positions in October, while statistics from the Chicago Fed show a slight uptick in the unemployment rate, signaling a softening labor market [3] - These economic indicators have strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts, with traders currently pricing in a 60% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December, putting continued pressure on the dollar and supporting gold as a non-yielding asset [3] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have stabilized above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, with the $4,200 mark providing effective support, and both daily and 4-hour technical indicators showing bullish patterns [6] - If the current momentum is maintained, gold prices could advance towards the $4,250-$4,255 range, with subsequent targets potentially reaching $4,285 and $4,300 [6] - In the event of a short-term pullback, the $4,100-$4,095 area is expected to form strong support, with a break below this range potentially triggering technical selling, targeting $4,075 or even $4,025; if the psychological level of $4,000 is breached, the short-term trend may turn bearish [6] - The reopening of the U.S. government has improved market sentiment, which may suppress safe-haven buying of gold, although the fundamental support from weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations seems to prevail [6] - Recent comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicate that real-time indicators show the labor market is in a "delicate balance" with no signs of escalating price pressures, reinforcing market confidence in a dovish path for the Federal Reserve [6]

11月12日，沪金前20名期货公司（全月份合约加总）多单持仓16.84万手，空单持仓7.01万手，多空比 2.4。净持仓为9.83万手，相较上日减少2513手。 11月13日，上期所黄金期货仓单90426千克，环比上个交易日增加810千克。 分析观点： 数据显示，11月13日上海黄金现货价格报价957.80元/克，相较于期货主力价格（961.22元/克）贴水3.42 元/克。 （11月13日）全国黄金价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 957元/克 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海黄金现货市场 | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 958.72元/克 | 市场价 | 上海市/黄浦区 | 上海黄金 | 期货市场上看，11月13日收盘，沪金期货主力合约报961.22元/克，涨幅1.56%，最高触及963.96元/克， 最低下探945.96元/克，日内成交量达307850手。 【市场资讯】 恒泰期货研报：首先，美联储年内降息预期仍存。"宽松预期+弱美元"修复通道持续。其次，避 ...

Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have reached a new high, with an overall increase of 17 CNY per gram on November 13, 2025 [1] - Major brands like Zhou Daxing and Chao Hong Ji have seen significant price increases, with Zhou Daxing's gold priced at 1333 CNY per gram, marking a rise of 20 CNY per gram [1] - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices among stores has expanded to 98 CNY per gram, indicating a growing disparity in pricing [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also surged, with Zhou Daxing's platinum jewelry increasing by 14 CNY per gram, now priced at 656 CNY per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has increased by 15.6 CNY per gram, with varying prices across different brands [2] - The recycling price for gold is reported at 948.30 CNY per gram for general gold, with specific brands like Lao Feng Xiang offering 958.80 CNY per gram [2] Group 4: International Gold Prices - International spot gold prices experienced a significant rise, briefly surpassing 4200 USD per ounce before settling at 4195.26 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.69% increase [4] - As of the latest report, spot gold is trading at 4114.31 USD per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.28% [4] - Analysts suggest that the end of the government shutdown may lead to economic data that supports expectations of a slowdown in the US economy, which could influence gold prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are rising as traders shift focus to the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook following the end of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1][5] - Gold prices approached $4,215 per ounce, marking a five-day consecutive increase, despite warnings from the White House about the unlikelihood of releasing official employment and inflation data in October [1][5] - The absence of key economic data during the government shutdown has left investors in a state of uncertainty, relying on private statistics to assess the state of the U.S. economy [5] Group 2 - The market anticipates further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which is favorable for non-yielding gold, although there are differing opinions among policymakers regarding the need for additional cuts [5] - Gold has seen an approximate 60% increase this year, potentially achieving its best annual performance since 1979, driven by central banks increasing purchases for value storage and asset diversification [5] - Despite concerns over the rapid increase in gold prices, some investors predict that prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce or higher next year, with China leading central bank purchases to reduce reliance on a U.S.-centric financial market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with a recent surge leading to a breakout above the 4200 mark, followed by a slight correction and potential for further gains towards 4300 [1][3][4]. Market Movement - After a period of consolidation, gold prices surged dramatically, breaking through the 4200 resistance level, followed by a minor adjustment of 30 dollars [3]. - The market is currently eyeing the 4300 resistance level, indicating a bullish sentiment [4]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels are identified at 4180 and 4130, with potential for further declines if these levels are breached [5][7]. - The market is also focusing on the 4241 and 4300 levels for potential shorting opportunities [7]. Influencing Factors - Recent legislative actions in the U.S. Congress to end the government shutdown have contributed to market fluctuations, impacting gold prices [8]. - The absence of key economic data due to the government shutdown has created uncertainty, which may influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and subsequently benefit gold prices [9][10]. Upcoming Data - Attention is drawn to the upcoming U.S. October CPI data and unemployment claims, which could reveal the true state of the labor market and affect Federal Reserve policy expectations [10]. Investment Strategy - Emphasis is placed on the importance of timing in entering and exiting positions in the gold market, with a focus on maintaining low risk while maximizing profit opportunities [10]. - A recommendation is made to follow experienced traders to enhance accuracy and profitability in gold trading [10].