Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals in July remained resilient. The Politburo meeting on July 30 set the tone for the second - half economic work, emphasizing continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - The July economic data globally showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non - manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, better than expected. The CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline in PPI narrowed [2]. - In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. The "Great Beauty" Act may support subsequent consumption. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" and the subsequent demand situation [2]. - For commodities, domestic supply - side is most sensitive in the black and new - energy metal sectors. Energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector persists. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to go long on industrial products at low prices [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Global economic data in July was resilient. China's manufacturing PMI declined, but exports were strong. The US had mixed economic data. The "reciprocal tariff" policy may affect external - demand - sensitive commodities. After the July interest - rate meeting, there was uncertainty about the Fed's September interest - rate decision [2]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors have different situations. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation. The energy supply is expected to be loose with OPEC+ increasing production. The "anti - involution" space in some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations [3]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy industrial products at low prices [4]. Market Performance - On August 11, the A - share market rose, with most stocks up and a trading volume of about 1.85 trillion. Some commodities like industrial silicon and红枣 rose, while others like eggs and container shipping to Europe declined. Bond yields increased, and spot gold dropped by over 1.4% [5]. Important News - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest - rate cuts this year and will host a community bank meeting on October 9. US President Trump will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 to discuss the Ukraine crisis, and the White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky [5].

新华社马塞卢8月5日电 记者手记｜莱索托纺织业遭美滥施关税政策严重冲击 新华社记者闫然 白舸 8月的莱索托正值冬季。寒风中，三五成群的纺织工人迷茫地穿梭于首都马塞卢工业区的制衣工厂，挨家询问是否招工，试图重新找到一份工作 养家糊口。美国威胁对所有贸易伙伴征收所谓"对等关税"，莱索托这个经济贫弱的国家受到严重冲击，特别是支柱产业纺织业。 美国7月31日晚公布对69个贸易伙伴的关税税率。根据白宫公告内容，来自莱索托的商品出口到美国将被征收15%的关税。对于这个出口依赖加 工美国品牌并销往美国市场的国家的纺织业来说，莫名加征的关税已成为重负乃至灾难。 作为联合国认定的世界最不发达国家之一，莱索托这个人口230万的非洲南部内陆国家，近一半人口生活在贫困线以下，失业率接近四分之一， 对美国加征的关税毫无还手之力。 成立于2016年的非洲出口纺织品工厂是莱索托规模较大的本土纺织厂。负责人泰博霍·科贝利表示，订单骤停对企业造成重创，"我们不得不裁 员近500人以缓解突如其来的经营压力"。 2021年，非洲出口纺织品工厂曾计划在马塞卢10个区域设立工厂并雇用上万名工人。"4年过去，当初的愿景没能实现。"科贝利遗憾地说。非洲 ...

新华社北京7月8日电 经济热点问答｜谈判延期又施压加码 美最新关税动作怎么看 新华社记者俞懋峰 美国总统特朗普7日宣布将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税，并决定将"对等关税"暂缓 期截止日期延长至8月1日。一些美国媒体将最新系列举措解读为升级贸易战之举。 哪些国家面临美国最新关税威胁？金融市场和贸易伙伴如何回应美方动作？美政府将谈判延期又施压加码背后有何意图？ 7月8日，在日本东京，日本首相石破茂（左）在综合对策总部会议上发言。新华社/共同社 哪些国家面临美最新关税威胁？ 特朗普当天在社交媒体上陆续发布他写给日本、韩国等14国领导人的信函，称将从8月1日起对这些国家征收25%到40%不等的关税。 根据信函，日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32% 的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税，泰国和柬埔寨将被征收36%的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临40%的关税。 同一天，特朗普签署行政令，延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期，将实施时间从7月9日推迟到8月1日。特朗普表示，8月1日的期限不是"1 ...

周二（8月12日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.49，跌幅0.01%，开盘价为98.51。 澳新银行的经济学 家TomKenny表示，美国7月份核心CPI可能环比上涨0.32%，这将推动同比升幅从2.9%升至3.0%。 特朗普政府于4月初设定的对等关税现已对大多数国家实施。目前进口商品的实际关税税率在20%左 右，Kenny预计，与近几个月相比，关税将在7月份对通胀产生一些影响。不过，他还表示，鉴于近期 劳动力市场状况降温以及核心服务业通胀回归长期趋势，美联储在9月份会议上下调联邦基金利率是合 适的。 美元指数整体处于震荡格局。MACD指标(26,12,9)显示DIFF线(0.1007)刚刚下穿DEA线(0.1277)，MACD 值为0.0545，暗示短期动能减弱，可能面临回调压力。 ...

2025.08. 12 本文字数：1959，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡 当地时间11日，世贸组织（WTO）确认，巴西已就美国关税措施向WTO提出争端磋商请求。 巴西称，美国已对所有巴西产品征收10%的关税，并对部分巴西原产产品额外征收40%的关税。第一财经记者看到，该争端磋商请求的通讯 文件已于8月11日分发给WTO各成员。 巴西称，美国这些措施违反了《1994年关税与贸易总协定》(GATT 1994)和《关于争端解决规则与程序的谅解》(DSU)中多项条款。 据央视报道，当地时间8月5日，巴西总统卢拉称，美国总统无权对巴西加征50%的高额关税，巴西政府将保护受影响的工人和企业，动用一 切可用手段，首先是向世界贸易组织提出申诉，以捍卫国家利益。 通讯文件显示，7月15日，USTR办公室启动了对巴西所谓"对美国社交媒体公司以及其他损害美国公司、工人、农民和技术创新者的不公平 贸易行为"的301条款调查。随后在7月30日，美国总统发布了一项题为"应对巴西政府对美国构成的威胁"的行政命令。该行政命令重申了美 国总统于7月9日致巴西总统的信函中提出的指控。 该行政命令声称，巴西政府所谓的"政策、做法 ...

Core Viewpoint - Brazil has formally requested dispute consultations with the WTO regarding the high tariffs imposed by the United States, claiming these measures violate multiple provisions of international trade agreements [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff Measures - The U.S. has imposed a 10% tariff on all Brazilian products and an additional 40% tariff on certain Brazilian-origin products [1][3]. - Starting August 1, 2025, the U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, which Brazil argues is unjustified and unrelated to the economic relationship between the two countries [3][4]. - Brazil asserts that the U.S. has a trade surplus with Brazil, contradicting claims that the trade deficit poses a significant threat to U.S. economic security [3][4]. Group 2: Legal Basis for the Complaint - Brazil claims that the U.S. actions violate the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT 1994) and the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) [5][6]. - Specific violations include the imposition of additional tariffs on Brazilian products while exempting certain other trading partners, which Brazil argues is discriminatory [6]. - Brazil reserves the right to present further facts and claims during the consultation process and anticipates a response from the U.S. regarding the request [6].

Economic Impact - India's exports to the US, which total approximately $87 billion, could become commercially unviable if the proposed 50% tariffs are implemented, significantly impacting the economy [4][3] - The textile, apparel, automotive parts, steel, and gemstone sectors are expected to be disproportionately affected, with the jewelry industry alone exporting around $9 billion annually [3][4] - A 25% tariff could lead to a GDP decline of 0.2% to 0.4%, potentially pushing India's economic growth rate below 6% for the year [4] Trade Relations - The US has become India's largest export market, accounting for 18% of total exports and 2.2% of GDP [4] - The imposition of high tariffs is seen as a significant setback for India's manufacturing ambitions and could reverse recent gains in attracting foreign investment [4][5] - India's response to the tariffs includes a cancellation of a defense minister's visit to the US, indicating rising tensions in trade negotiations [6] Strategic Shifts - Analysts suggest that the US actions may prompt India to reconsider its strategic partnerships, potentially deepening ties with Russia, China, and other nations [8] - The ongoing uncertainty created by US tariffs could hinder India's ability to attract both domestic and foreign investments [7]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The new tariff policy marks the highest tariffs in the U.S. since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, with most countries facing a tariff increase to 15% and specific countries like Canada and Brazil facing rates of 35% and 50% respectively [4][6][13] - The tariffs are expected to significantly impact U.S. domestic companies and consumers, leading to reduced profit margins, decreased market confidence, and potential cuts in investment and hiring [13][14] - The tariffs are seen as a tool for the U.S. to exert control over its trading partners, particularly Canada and Brazil, with political motivations behind the tariff increases [6][7][8] Group 2: Economic Repercussions - Recent polls indicate a decline in President Trump's approval ratings to 40%, reflecting public concern over his handling of economic policies, including tariffs [2][3] - The tariffs have led to price increases in various sectors, with leather prices up by 40%, fresh produce by 7%, and automotive prices by 12%, resulting in an estimated additional annual cost of $2,400 for the average American household [14][15] - Economic forecasts suggest that the inflation rate in the U.S. could exceed the Federal Reserve's target, with potential long-term indirect effects on consumers due to the tariffs [15] Group 3: International Relations and Trade Agreements - Traditional allies like Japan and the EU have also been affected, with both agreeing to invest in the U.S. and open their markets in exchange for lower tariffs [9][11] - Japan's GDP growth forecast has been downgraded due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, highlighting the interconnectedness of global economies [10] - The EU has expressed concerns that the tariffs will disrupt transatlantic supply chains and has indicated a willingness to take countermeasures if necessary [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent trends in China's export data, indicating a high growth rate in July, influenced by lower base effects and rising raw material prices, while also noting a widening year-on-year decline in exports to the US, suggesting a cooling effect in the coming months [3][4] - The liquidity environment remains loose, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan in the open market, and interest rates for interbank deposits showing a decline, with 1Y AAA interbank deposit rates around 1.63% [3][4] Group 2 - In the primary market, there is an increase in subscription sentiment, with 52 bonds issued totaling 725.8 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 536.7 billion yuan, indicating improved market conditions compared to July [4] - The secondary market continues its recovery trend, with the 10Y government bond yield falling below 1.7%, driven by a favorable liquidity environment and the conclusion of negative factors from the political bureau meeting [5][6] Group 3 - The outlook for the market suggests that after a cooling of inflation trading, internal and external demand pressures will return to focus, which is favorable for the bond market, especially with new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [5][6] - The fiscal policy remains focused on implementing existing policies with limited potential for large-scale stimulus, which is beneficial for the bond market's recovery [5][6] - The monetary policy is characterized by a continuation of "moderate easing," with limited new policies expected, and the central bank showing willingness to maintain liquidity through various operations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset suggests that the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed on imports may eventually decrease, contingent upon correcting trade imbalances and the return of manufacturing to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Tariffs and Trade Balance - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest since World War II, as a result of recent tariff measures [1] - Basset emphasizes that the primary goal of the Trump administration's tariffs is to "rebalance" the U.S. current account deficit, which is projected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][2] - The U.S. has lost a significant number of manufacturing jobs over the past 40 to 50 years, and Basset believes that reducing imports will help restore trade balance [2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Basset anticipates that most trade negotiations will be completed by the end of October, with negotiations with China being the most critical but challenging [4] - The U.S. has recently reached a trade agreement with Japan, termed the "golden industrial partnership," which includes a commitment from Japan for $550 billion in investments and loans [5] - The agreement with Japan involves reducing tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, although this reduction has not yet been implemented [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Economic Policy - Basset highlights the need to improve the U.S. investment environment to attract foreign direct investment, as the country has experienced trade deficits leading to capital returning primarily in financial forms [7] - The administration's strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs faces skepticism from economists, who argue that the necessary labor force and capital are lacking [7][8] - The high costs associated with relocating production to the U.S. present significant challenges, as investors require stable labor supply, local supply chains, and clear tariff policy timelines [8]