Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a framework trade agreement between the EU and the US, where the US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU imports, significantly lower than the previously proposed 30% [1][3] - The EU will invest an additional $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of energy over three years to reduce reliance on Russian gas [3][4] - The agreement has received mixed reactions within the EU, with some leaders welcoming it for providing stability, while others, like the French Prime Minister, view it as a negative development [3][4] Group 2 - The trade relationship between the US and EU is significant, with projected trade volumes reaching $975.3 billion by 2024, while the trade between China and the EU is expected to exceed $780 billion [6] - Despite the ongoing trade negotiations, the EU's stance towards China has been cautious, with recent criticisms and sanctions against Chinese entities, indicating a complex relationship [6][8] - The EU's dependency on China in sectors like renewable energy and advanced technologies has increased, contradicting the narrative of "decoupling" from China [8][9]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang macro WEI index decreased to 5.84% as of July 20, down 0.12% from July 13[6] - The land premium rate rose to 7.8% for the week of July 20, with a three-week average of 6.5%[10] - Container throughput at Chinese ports increased by 2.6% week-on-week as of July 20, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.3%[23] Price Trends - Domestic resource prices continued to rise significantly, with Shanxi thermal coal price up 1.7%, coking coal up 16.7%, and rebar price up 5.5%[41] - The South China Glass Index surged by 26% during the same period[41] Real Estate Market - The transaction area of commercial housing in 67 cities decreased by 20.5% year-on-year for the first 25 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[8] Infrastructure and Production - The operating rate of asphalt plants fell to 28.8%, down 4% week-on-week but up 4% year-on-year[17] - The average operating rate for asphalt plants from June 26 to July 23 was 31.5%, roughly stable compared to June[17] Trade Dynamics - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. dropped by 5.5% year-on-year as of July 26, compared to a 16.4% increase at the end of June[30] - U.S. imports from China saw a decline of 20.2% year-on-year for the 22 days leading up to July 22[30]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has been forced to accept a 15% tariff agreement with the United States, highlighting its regret for not forming a united front with China to counteract U.S. trade policies [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - On July 27, U.S. President Trump announced that the EU would increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1]. - The EU accepted a 15% "base" tariff, which includes key sectors like the automotive industry, while steel will be subject to a quota system [2][3]. - The EU's initial plan aimed to reduce a €200 billion trade deficit through increased purchases of liquefied natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, but was undermined by Trump's rapid actions [3]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements and Strategic Missteps - The EU's response to Trump's trade aggression began with a strategic misstep on April 10, when it chose to suspend retaliatory tariffs and accept negotiations under pressure [2][4]. - Internal divisions among EU member states weakened its negotiating position, with some countries advocating for a stronger response while others preferred a more cautious approach [3][4]. - The EU's reliance on U.S. security guarantees, particularly among Eastern and Northern member states, contributed to its reluctance to engage in a trade confrontation [4]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The EU's experience in this trade conflict underscores the importance of unity and decisive strategy in the face of trade bullying, as a lack of these elements led to unfavorable outcomes [5]. - Analysts suggest that the EU's failure to act decisively against U.S. tariffs reflects a broader lesson about the risks of not presenting a united front in international trade disputes [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. textile and apparel industry is under significant pressure due to supply chain adjustments and uncertainty surrounding new tariffs implemented by the Trump administration, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The introduction of new tariffs has led to increased costs for suppliers, which are expected to result in higher prices for consumers [2]. - Retailers and importers are tracking rising costs and expenditures, which have become shockingly high due to the current tariff policies [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs complicates procurement decisions for companies, making it difficult to manage supply chains effectively [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - The textile and apparel industry is characterized by its high degree of globalization, and significant tariff increases pose a direct threat to its operations [2]. - Even when U.S. manufacturers are found, the costs are often double compared to suppliers from other countries, making it challenging to shift production domestically [2]. - The inability to quickly establish new factories means that adjustments to supply chains will not yield immediate results [1].

Group 1 - The week features significant events and data releases, including non-farm payrolls, PCE, and the Federal Reserve's decision [1][2] - Key financial reports are scheduled from major companies such as Boeing, Merck, Visa, Starbucks, HSBC, UBS, Meta, and Microsoft [2][3] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. is set to begin, with a 50% import tariff on copper taking effect [3] Group 2 - Economic data releases include various indices and rates from the U.S., UK, Eurozone, and China, which will provide insights into economic performance [1][2][3] - The Canadian central bank's interest rate decision is anticipated, alongside the Federal Reserve's rate decision and economic outlook [2][3] - The week will conclude with the release of manufacturing PMIs and consumer confidence indices, which are critical for assessing economic health [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, announced that the deadline for imposing tariffs on August 1 will not be extended, indicating an intensifying trade negotiation phase between the U.S. and the EU [1] Group 1: U.S.-EU Trade Negotiations - The core objective of the negotiations is to encourage the EU to open its markets to U.S. exports, with the EU seeking a deal contingent on offering favorable conditions to avoid a 30% tariff threat from the U.S. [3] - The U.S. has already imposed tariffs on over 70% of EU exports, with steel and aluminum tariffs at 50%, automotive parts at 25%, and other goods generally at 10% [3] - A key meeting between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and President Trump is scheduled, which is seen as a critical juncture in the tariff negotiations [3] Group 2: EU's Countermeasures - The EU plans to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if negotiations fail, merging previous lists targeting €21 billion and an additional €72 billion in U.S. products [4] - Affected U.S. products include Boeing aircraft, automobiles, bourbon whiskey, motorcycles, jeans, tobacco, yachts, and diamonds, with tariffs set to match those threatened by the U.S. [4] - The EU's stance is becoming increasingly firm, with member states like Germany supporting the use of retaliatory measures [4] Group 3: Negotiation Challenges - The initial deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" set by Trump was July 9, later extended to August 1, with limited agreements reached with a few countries [5] - Trump indicated that most agreements are not bilateral free trade agreements but unilateral letters from the U.S., with tariff rates ranging from 10% to 15% [5] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, citing uncertainty in the economic outlook primarily due to the unclear prospects of U.S.-EU trade negotiations [5]

FICC周报 | 2025-07-27 商品价格大幅波动，关注反内卷后续政策 市场分析 关注国内重要会议。上半年国内经济仍具韧性，中国上半年GDP同比增长5.3%，高于全年预期目标5%，财政发力 和"抢出口"现象为上半年经济数据提供支撑，但也对应着政策迫切性有所下降。中国6月出口表现亮眼，中美关税 缓和下，新一轮"抢出口"支撑需求；中国6月社零同比增速放缓至4.8%，主要受部分地区"两新"政策补贴断档拖累， 后续政策补贴有望继续下达支撑国内消费。投资方面，基建投资和制造业投资均明显回落，整体固定投资走弱， 地产销售走弱对整个地产链条拖累风险仍存。后续关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。 "反内卷"的进展跟踪。7月以来，中央财经委、工信部等部门再次强调治理企业低价无序竞争，15日中钢协召开钢 铁工业规划部长会，研究建立产能治理新机制，光伏、锂电池、汽车、钢铁等行业"反内卷"政策预期升温，部分 商品价格回暖。从政策文件和行业自律的内容来看，当前综合整治"内卷式"竞争可以关注钢铁、炼油、合成氨、 水泥、电解铝、数据中心、煤电、光伏、锂电池、新能源汽车、电商等行业。在7月18日举行的国新办新闻发布会 上，工 ...

特朗普25日在离开白宫前往苏格兰之前对记者说："我想说，我们有50%的机会——也许比这个少—— 但有50%的机会与欧盟达成协议。" （原标题：突然全线拉升！特朗普前往英国，将与欧盟商谈关税！） 7月26日，加密货币全线拉升，比特币涨超2%突破118000美元，以太坊涨破3700美元。 过去的24小时，全球共有超7.7万人爆仓。 消息面上，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普25日动身前往英国苏格兰地区，将在5天的行程期间为一家 高尔夫球场剪彩，与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩商谈关税事宜，并将会见英国首相斯塔默。 4月宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫宣称可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。然而，已被延长一次 的谈判窗口期即将于8月1日结束，美方眼下宣称达成的贸易协议仅有5份。特朗普25日说，他有信心在8 月1日前与大部分国家达成协议。此外，他还称将在未来一周广发信函，"敲定"关税协议。 多名欧盟外交官向媒体透露，欧盟和美国正在接近达成协议，美国可能将对欧盟商品征收15%的关税 ——与日本和美国本周谈成的关税税率相同，关键行业可能获得豁免。白宫警告说，目前任何关于协议 的讨论都只是推测性的。 7月初，特朗普先后致信20多个 ...

冯德莱恩25日在社交媒体上写道："在与美国总统进行了良好的通话后，我们同意周日在苏格兰会面， 讨论跨大西洋贸易关系，以及我们如何保持这种关系的强大。" 新华财经北京7月26日电美国总统特朗普25日动身前往英国苏格兰地区，将在5天的行程期间为一家高尔 夫球场剪彩，与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩商谈关税事宜，并将会见英国首相斯塔默。 4月宣布设定"对等关税"谈判窗口期时，白宫宣称可以"在90天内达成90份协议"。然而，已被延长一次 的谈判窗口期即将于8月1日结束，美方眼下宣称达成的贸易协议仅有5份。特朗普25日说，他有信心在8 月1日前与大部分国家达成协议。此外，他还称将在未来一周广发信函，"敲定"关税协议。 50%几率与欧盟达成协议 特朗普25日在离开白宫前往苏格兰之前对记者说："我想说，我们有50%的机会——也许比这个少—— 但有50%的机会与欧盟达成协议。" 自7月9日以来，美国仅宣布与日本、菲律宾和印度尼西亚达成贸易协议。 25日，谈到与邻国加拿大的贸易谈判时，特朗普说，美方"运气不太好"，双方可能无法通过磋商达成贸 易协议。 特朗普本月10日宣布，美国将自8月1日起对从加拿大输入美国的商品加征35%关税，且该 ...

Group 1 - The EU is close to reaching an agreement with the US on a 15% tariff on European products exported to the US, with a potential implementation date of August 7 if negotiations fail [1][2][4] - The EU has prepared countermeasures, including a proposed €93 billion in tariffs on US products, which could reach up to 30% if negotiations do not yield satisfactory results [4][5] - The negotiations are influenced by the US's previous agreements with Japan and the need for President Trump to demonstrate successful outcomes in trade discussions [1][3] Group 2 - The proposed 15% tariff may apply to various sectors, including automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and would not stack on existing tariffs [2][3] - The EU's internal discussions indicate a willingness to accept the 15% tariff as a means to maintain the status quo, potentially reducing the current 27.5% tariff on cars [2][3] - The EU is also considering the activation of the "anti-coercion tool" as a response to US tariffs, reflecting a strong stance among member states [5][6] Group 3 - The deadline for reaching an agreement is approaching, with many unresolved issues remaining, particularly concerning Canada and Mexico, which face significant tariffs if no agreement is reached [6][7] - The cancellation of the US-South Korea "2+2" economic talks raises concerns about the likelihood of reaching a tariff agreement with South Korea before the deadline [7] - Analysts suggest that the US's fluctuating negotiation strategy has created significant uncertainty in global trade [7]