鲍威尔在货币政策会议结束后举行的记者会上说，"联邦政府'停摆'将持续对经济活动构成压力"。不 过，"停摆"结束后这些影响"将会逆转"。 新华社华盛顿10月29日电（记者徐静 施春）美国联邦储备委员会29日宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间 再次下调25个基点到3.75%至4.00%之间。美联储主席鲍威尔当天表示，美联储12月货币政策会议进一 步降息并非板上钉钉。 美联储委员会当天结束为期两天的货币政策会议。其决策机构联邦公开市场委员会在会后发表声明说， 现有指标显示，美国经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张，今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率自 年初以来有所上升，目前仍处于较高水平。鉴于风险平衡变化，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个 基点。 声明说，联邦公开市场委员会在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间作进一步调整时，将仔细评估最新数据、 不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡。如果出现可能阻碍目标实现的风险，将随时酌情调整货币政策立 场。 这是美联储继9月17日降息25个基点后再次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第五次降息。联邦公开市场委员 会12名委员中10人投票赞成降息25个基点，斯蒂芬·米兰倾向于降息50个基点，杰弗里·施 ...

未来政策路径的不确定性正在急剧上升。鲍威尔在会后表示，对于12月是否继续降息，委员会内部"存 在明显分歧"，并强调进一步降息"绝不是板上钉钉"，货币政策并不会沿既定轨道自动前进。 媒体在节目中与驻联储记者进行讨论时指出，此次降息已是今年第二次动作，而在今年7月之前，联储 内部的主流观点仍认为就业市场强劲、主要风险仍在通胀。但进入第三季度以来，企业招聘明显放缓， 与此同时通胀数据虽仍高于目标，却有逐步回落迹象。这为联储连续降息提供了政策窗口，也意味着政 策重心出现从"防通胀"向"稳就业"的微妙转向。 另一个影响决策的重要背景是美国政府持续停摆。尽管联储自身不依赖国会拨款，其政策判断大量依赖 由劳工统计局和经济分析局等政府机构提供的数据，而这些机构员工已被迫停工，导致关键经济指标发 布延迟甚至缺失。记者Amara Omeokwe指出，在缺乏官方数据的情况下，联储只能更多依赖私营部门 发布的消费者信心、工业活动、与就业相关的多数替代指标；然而，这些指标覆盖面与一致性均不及官 方统计，令政策制定存在"视野受限"的风险。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储周三宣布再度降息25个基点，这也是继9月会议首次降息25个基点之后的连 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year and the second consecutive cut since September [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The decision to cut rates was not unanimously supported by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with two members voting against the cut, highlighting increasing internal divisions within the Fed [5]. - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) on December 1, after three and a half years of implementation [5][6]. Economic Indicators - Current indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [6][9]. - Inflation has shown signs of recovery and remains slightly elevated, with the Fed closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate of employment and price stability [6][11]. Powell's Statements - Powell indicated that the economic outlook has not changed significantly, but the government shutdown could temporarily hinder economic activity [9][10]. - He emphasized that the decision for a rate cut in December is not guaranteed and that the Fed may need to be cautious due to a lack of data during the government shutdown [10][11]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's press conference, U.S. stock indices experienced volatility, with the Nasdaq initially dropping but later recovering, while the Dow and S&P 500 saw reduced losses [13][14]. - The dollar index rose sharply, reflecting market adjustments to the Fed's announcements and Powell's comments [16][19]. Bond Market Impact - The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note increased by 10 basis points, while the yield on the ten-year note also rose, indicating market reactions to Powell's "hawkish" remarks [19].

Group 1 - The outlook for policy interest rates indicates that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is not guaranteed, with significant disagreement among FOMC members about whether to pause [1] - The composition of the balance sheet has not been decided, and adjustments will be gradual, aiming for a shorter duration of the balance sheet [1] - The employment market is cooling due to restrictive policies, but there is no significant worsening in job market weakness, with job vacancies indicating stability over the past month [1] Group 2 - Inflation data shows that the September CPI was more moderate than expected, with core PCE potentially at 2.3% or 2.4% when excluding tariffs, and non-tariff inflation remaining close to the 2% target [1] - The potential government shutdown could impact the December FOMC monetary policy meeting, as private sector data cannot replace government statistics [1] - Market reactions include a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by over 8 basis points, stabilizing around 4.0583%, and a rise in the 2-year Treasury yield by over 10 basis points, stabilizing around 3.5919% [1]

Al Drago / Bloomberg via Getty Images Federal Reserve policy committee members, including Lisa Cook, voted to cut their influential fed funds rate Wednesday. Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate today by a quarter of a percentage point, as widely expected. Fed officials aim to boost the faltering job market as concerns over inflation take a back seat to fears that unemployment could rise. The Federal Reserve has once again cut its benchmark interest rate, aiming to breathe ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a rate cut, but there may be internal disagreements within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [2][5]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has expressed concerns about the labor market, indicating a potential consensus for the rate cut, while private sector data shows a decline in employment [2][3]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials remain concerned about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-over-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [3][5]. - There is a significant divide within the Fed, with some members advocating for immediate rate cuts while others prefer to wait due to inflation risks [3][5]. Group 3: Economic Data Challenges - The government shutdown has created a data void, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the current economic situation, with only limited CPI data available [6][7]. - Analysts expect Powell to communicate uncertainty regarding future policy paths, especially in light of missing employment data [6][7]. Group 4: Balance Sheet Reduction - A key point of discussion is whether the Fed will officially announce an end to its balance sheet reduction, with major banks predicting this could happen during the meeting [8][11]. - The Fed's decision on balance sheet reduction will be influenced by the level of bank reserves, which have recently fallen below $3 trillion [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][3][4] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a rate cut, but there are internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [3][4] - Analysts expect that the Fed will provide more guidance on future policy directions during the press conference, particularly regarding employment risks and inflation pressures [4][8] Group 2: Economic Data and Labor Market - Recent private sector data indicates a decline in private sector jobs, with ADP reporting a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, reflecting a weakening labor market [4][8] - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials express concerns about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-on-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [4][9] Group 3: Balance Sheet and Quantitative Tightening - There is speculation that the Fed may announce an end to its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) during this meeting, as recent trends show a decline in bank reserves [10][13] - Major banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America have adjusted their forecasts, suggesting that the Fed may halt its asset reduction process due to rising borrowing costs in the dollar financing market [10][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its October meeting, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4% with a 99.9% probability according to market expectations [1][3] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates a second consecutive rate cut, but there are internal divisions within the Fed regarding future monetary policy direction due to a lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown [3][4] - The ADP report indicated a decrease of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, reflecting a potentially worsening labor market [3][4] Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Despite acknowledging risks in the labor market, some Fed officials express concerns about inflation, with the core CPI rising 3% year-over-year, exceeding the Fed's target by one percentage point [4][6] - There is a significant divide among Fed officials, with some advocating for immediate rate cuts while others prefer a more cautious approach [4][6] Group 3: Economic Data Challenges - The government shutdown has led to a lack of critical economic data, complicating the Fed's ability to assess the current economic situation [7][8] - Analysts expect the Fed to communicate increased uncertainty regarding future policy paths due to the absence of comprehensive economic indicators [8] Group 4: Balance Sheet Reduction - There is speculation that the Fed may announce an end to its balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) during this meeting, as recent market conditions suggest a need for increased liquidity [9][12] - The Fed's decision on whether to continue reducing its balance sheet will depend on the state of bank reserves, which have recently fallen below $3 trillion [9][12] Group 5: Market Reactions - Recent large trades in the interest rate market indicate positioning for the Fed's potential announcement to end quantitative tightening, reflecting market expectations for a rate cut and a shift in policy [12][13] - The SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) currently stands at 4.24%, while the federal funds rate is at 4.11%, suggesting market adjustments in anticipation of the Fed's decisions [13]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% during the FOMC meeting on October 28-29, 2023, due to a slowing U.S. job market and moderate inflation impact from tariffs [1][2] - Market expectations for a rate cut have intensified, with a 99.9% probability for a 25 basis point cut in October and a 91% probability for another cut in December, following lower-than-expected CPI data [2][3] - Analysts indicate that the Fed's statement will significantly influence market trends, with a dovish tone likely to weaken the dollar and benefit gold and global equities [1][8] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with broad employment indicators indicating a deceleration, although there are no widespread layoffs or spending cuts reported [3][4] - The uncertainty surrounding the labor market remains a critical concern for the Fed, as the official employment data is currently in a "data vacuum" period [2][4] - Analysts express differing views within the Fed regarding the pace and extent of future rate cuts, reflecting varying assessments of economic risks [3][4] Group 3: Quantitative Tightening (QT) and Liquidity Concerns - There is speculation that the Fed may end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy soon, as liquidity pressures in the financial system are becoming evident [6][7] - Recent data shows a significant reduction in bank reserves, indicating that the current QT may be reaching a turning point [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's decision to halt QT could be a risk-minimizing choice in light of recent liquidity stress signals [6][7] Group 4: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - The market has already priced in the Fed's expected rate cuts, which is affecting the performance of various asset classes [8] - The dollar index is currently fluctuating between 98-99, facing downward pressure due to uncertainties related to tariffs and government shutdowns [8][9] - Analysts predict that gold and other precious metals will remain strong due to the anticipated Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical factors [9][10]

A fresh reading Friday showing that inflation cooled slightly in September is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on course for another quarter-percentage-point interest rate cut next week amid continued concerns about the job market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) clocked in at 3% for the month of September, a tenth of a percent lower than expected, but inching up from the 2.9% rate in August. On a core basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is the preferred Fed measure, inflation also ...