| | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | ITC 国贸期货 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | SAL. | | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 >> | 杨璐琳 | 投资咨询号:Z0015194 从业资格号:F3042528 | | | 2025/5/7 | | | | | | | 纸浆价格数据 | | | | | | | | | 2025年5月6日 | 日环比 | 周环比 | | | 2025年5月6日 | OFF HWH | 1977 17 | | | SP2505 | 5064 | -1.02% | -7. 66% | | 针叶浆银星 | 6200 | 0. 00% | -2. 36% | | 期货价格 | SP2507 | 503R | -1.64% | -6. 53% | 现货价 | 针叶浆俄针 | 5200 | 0. 00% | -4. 59% | | | SP2509 | 5000 | -1. 30% | - ...

| ITG 国贸期货 | ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 日度策略参考 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 | | | | ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 | ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ITG 国贸期货 | 发布日期：2025/05/07 研究院：李泽钜 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 投资咨询号：Z0000116 从业资格号：F0251925 ITG 国贸期货 行业板块 品种 趋势研判 ITG 国贸期货 股指 震荡 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 国债 震荡 宏观金融 | | ITG 国贸期货 | | ITG 国贸期货 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 ITG 国贸期货 ITG 国贸期货 节后开盘避免追高，关注中小盘弹性释放机会，多头品种上主要考虑中证 1 ...

今天分享的是：开源证券-宏观经济2025年中期投资策略：关税冲击与应对 报告共计：39页 该文档是开源证券2025年5月发布的宏观经济中期投资策略报告，核心聚焦关税冲击及其应对策略，主要内容如下： 1. 对等关税的影响 - 对中国的影响评估：加征关税对中国经济有冲击，加征54%关税预计拖累中国GDP 1.2个百分点左右；54%-145%的情形下，冲击在1 - 2个百分点区间。4月 制造业PMI分项走弱，5 - 6月、7 - 8月是关税扰动的关键阶段。 2. 经济数据的隐忧 - 加征关税目的：通过加征关税减少贸易逆差，推动制造业回流，以改变美国长期贸易逆差和制造业占GDP比重低的局面。 - 关税谈判展望：虽然关税谈判前景不明，但美国经济下行、通胀预期升温以及债券市场压力，可能促使其选择谈判。 - 美联储政策倾向：4月美国新增非农就业超预期，劳动力市场有韧性，美联储或在5月会议观望，三季度可能首次降息。 - 出口形势严峻：4月出口同比或大幅回落，全年出口同比可能降至-8%左右。 - 地产市场遇冷：4月30城商品房成交同比下降，二手房成交增速放缓，房价修复可能暂缓，中国偿债比率虽有改善但仍需下行。 - 价格水平低迷 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing upward momentum after testing the key support level of 3350, but signs of high-level stagnation are emerging as the price struggles to break through the 3400 mark [1][3] - Current market conditions suggest that it is not suitable to chase long positions directly, and investors are advised to remain cautious and wait for a price pullback to the key support range of 3370-3365 before considering new positions [3][4] - The market is showing increased volatility with a three-time attempt to reach higher prices, indicating a potential short-term top risk if the 3400 level is not effectively breached [3][4] Group 2 - The suggested trading strategy includes buying on a pullback to the 3372-3367 range, with a stop loss at 3360 and a target of 3388-3400, potentially extending to 3422 if the breakout occurs [4] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of self-discipline and a comprehensive understanding of the investment ecosystem, including investment philosophy, mindset, capital management, risk control, and operational strategies [4]

据记者梳理，今年"五一"假期，有多家银行及理财子公司推出了"五一"理财攻略，助力投资者优化资产 配置。部分银行推出的理财产品在收益表现、策略创新等方面展现出新特征。具体来看，银行理财市场 短期高收益产品发行密集，且多聚焦于中低风险领域，实现收益与安全之间的平衡。与此同时，理财产 品的投资策略呈现出多元化的发展格局。 从收益情况来看，部分银行理财子公司针对"五一"假期推出的产品业绩比较基准或历史业绩普遍较高。 例如，招银理财在"五一"小长假前夕重点宣传了该公司推出的多款理财产品，风险等级在R1、R2，部 分理财产品七日年化收益率可达3.4%；平安理财一款最短持有期为7天的理财产品，近3个月年化收益 率达5.04%，成立以来年化收益率为5.32%，另一款最低持有14天的理财产品，近3个月年化收益达 6.12%，成立以来年化收益率为6.02%。 同时，虽然当前银行理财产品仍以现金管理类、固收类为主，但在产品设计上呈现出明显的多元化特 征，尤其在期限设置和底层资产配置方面更为灵活。其中，期限设置覆盖全周期，既有开放式灵活申赎 产品，也有最短7天至1年不等的持有期产品，兼顾流动性与收益稳定性。风险等级方面，R2级中低风 ...

意料外的行情。 五一假期之前，10 年减 1 年国债期限利差悄然收窄至 16bp 的新低，10 年国债中债估值收益再度探至 1.62%低位，债 市讨论从持债过节是否安全，快速切换到是否追涨。收益快速下行催化剂有三：一是跨月节点，资金不紧反松；二是 市场提前定价 4 月 PMI 读数；三是 30 年国债切换活跃券，定价产生提振。考虑到交易量与行情的脱节，若是相对收 益考核账户还未能赚到这波行情，接下来将面临 4 月初一样的问题：如何执行追涨？ 如何看待追涨性价比？ 牛市行情间隔时间不长，期间信用债调整力度还普遍大于利率债，是不是可以认为跌出票息性价比，反而提升信用债 的参与价值？从以下五个方面来看，仍需留一份谨慎。第一，脆弱的交易情绪，一般信用债距离年内低点即便高于利 率债，也并未展现应有的抢配，甚至是收益下行力度都谈不上修复过去两周的下跌，流动性较好的 AAA 信用债表现亦 平淡。第二，追久期的力度不足。第三，换手率亦未反映一般信用债的配置热度，无论是 3 年内还是 3 年以上城投债， 换手率都在年内较低水平。第四，票息增强不如博资本利得，4 月以来，关键期限城投债和中票平均票息收益与资本 利得收益占比各半， ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a new era of normalized cash dividends, with the total cash dividends for 2024 reaching a historical record, indicating a shift towards a more mature capital market focused on high-dividend assets [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Normalization - The total cash dividends of A-share listed companies for 2024 have set a historical record, marking the formal entry into a new era of normalized dividends in the Chinese capital market [1]. - This transformation is driven by both policy and market forces, suggesting that high-dividend assets are reshaping the valuation logic of the capital market [1][2]. - Over 100 listed companies have established a stable dividend group with a dividend yield of no less than 3% for three consecutive years, indicating a more mature capital market [1]. Group 2: Investment Value of High-Dividend Stocks - High-dividend stocks are showing strong anti-cyclical capabilities, making them core assets for long-term funds due to their combination of high dividends and low volatility [2]. - The trend of dividend index investment is experiencing explosive growth, with a positive cycle expected to form around high dividends, high ratings, and low-cost financing [2]. - The low-risk, moderate-return characteristics of dividend assets are increasingly appealing to long-term funds such as insurance and pension funds, especially as deposit rates and government bond yields decline [2]. Group 3: Changes in Dividend Structure - The frequency of dividends is shifting from annual to quarterly, with multiple dividends per year becoming the norm [2]. - The structure of dividends is evolving from cash dividends to a combination of cash dividends and share buybacks, enhancing the overall quality of dividends [2]. - Regulatory requirements are pushing companies to disclose the alignment between dividends and free cash flow, fostering a stable dividend expectation and improving valuation premiums [2][3]. Group 4: Investment Strategy Transformation - Investors are encouraged to adopt a quasi-fixed income mindset, transitioning from capital gains to cash flow returns, as high-dividend assets provide both safety and growth potential [3]. - The deepening of the registration system and the acceleration of institutionalization in the A-share market are expected to lead to more "cash cow" companies that generate free cash flow and allocate profits reasonably [3].

第四条，是关于认知的提升。股市并非一个简单的投机场所，它要求每一位投资者都具备一定的知识储备。不要轻易相信那些所谓的"内幕消息"，更不要随 便就加入到那些只凭感情操作的人群中。股市的世界复杂且深邃，我们必须从根本上提升自己的认知，学习如何分析公司的财务状况、如何评估市场的未来 趋势，切不可把投资当作一场碰运气的游戏。 而关于投资策略，必须因人而异，量力而行。正如巴菲特并非每个领域都能通吃，每个人在股市中的角色也应根据自己的特长而定。如果你有时间和精力去 研究，可以自己亲自决策；如果你无法分身，那么选择一个专业的机构，也是一个不失为明智的选择。盲目跟风，最后只会一无所获，甚至陷入无谓的困 境。 说到分散投资，这也是至关重要的一环。切勿把所有的希望寄托在一篮子鸡蛋上。合理的分散，不仅能分担风险，更能在不同市场与行业之间找到机会。股 市的波动是无法预测的，但我们可以通过合理配置资产，来降低其带来的冲击。 有句话说得好，"长期视野才能看清全貌"。股市的短期波动常常让人心浮气躁，但真正的投资者，始终坚守着长期的视角。市场的大涨大跌，短期内固然令 人心动，但我们要看得更远，了解政策、经济基本面等因素，始终保持冷静和理性。 ...

平衡型策略跟住指数，等待冲击带来的配置机会 —— 5 月转债投资策略与关注个券 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 05 月 04 日 [李一爽 Table_ First固定Author 收益]首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+86 18817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+86 18817872149 邮 箱：zhangchi3@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T债券able_ReportType] 专题 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益 首席分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | | 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 邮 | 张 弛 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524090002 联系电话：+ ...

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves have reached a historic high of $347.7 billion, increasing by $13.5 billion from the previous quarter, despite a 64% year-over-year decline in net profit to $4.603 billion and a net investment loss of $5.038 billion [2][3] - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 was $89.725 billion, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, but the decline in net profit and investment losses highlight current market challenges [2] - Buffett's cautious investment strategy is evident as he emphasizes the low likelihood of major trading opportunities appearing tomorrow, but acknowledges the potential for such opportunities in the next five years [2] Investment Strategy - Over the past year, Berkshire Hathaway has significantly increased its cash holdings from $167.6 billion in 2023 to $334.2 billion in 2024, and now to $347.7 billion [3] - The fair value of equity investments is highly concentrated, with 69% in five companies: American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Chevron, and Coca-Cola, reflecting a long-term confidence in core assets [3] - The insurance float has surpassed $173 billion, with a $20 billion increase in Q1, providing a near-zero cost funding pool for long-term investments and acting as a buffer against market risks [3] Leadership Transition - Analysts suggest that Buffett, at 94 years old, is preparing for a leadership transition, with the substantial cash reserves providing potential "buying power" during market corrections and greater operational flexibility for successor Greg Abel [4] - The $347.7 billion cash reserve serves as both a defensive line and a poised asset for future investments, aligning with Buffett's assurance that the company will primarily allocate funds to stock investments rather than cash equivalents [4]