Core Points - The 8th China International Import Expo (CIIE) opened on November 5, 2023, in Shanghai, showcasing China's commitment to high-level opening-up and global cooperation [1][4][6] - This year's expo features a record number of participating companies, highlighting the vitality of China's large-scale market [1][4][6] - The expo serves as a "catalyst" for high-quality development in China and a "firewall" against anti-globalization trends, providing certainty to the global economy [1][10][12] Group 1: Event Overview - The CIIE is themed "Open Cooperation for New Opportunities and Shared Future," emphasizing its role as a bridge between the world economy and China's economy [1][4] - The exhibition area exceeds 367,000 square meters, with over 4,100 participating companies, including 290 Fortune 500 and industry-leading firms [6][10] - The event runs from November 5 to 10, 2023, and includes six major exhibition areas and an innovation incubation zone [6][8] Group 2: Key Themes and Innovations - The expo focuses on innovation, with 461 new products, technologies, and services being showcased, making China a testing ground for global innovation [6][7] - Notable global companies are participating, including those in the medical field, highlighting advancements in chronic and rare disease treatments [7] - The introduction of a "cross-border e-commerce preferred platform" and enhanced digital services aims to create new business models and improve visitor experience [7][10] Group 3: International Participation - A total of 67 countries and international organizations are participating, with six countries serving as guest countries for the first time [8] - Countries like the UAE and Nigeria are showcasing their unique cultural and economic contributions, enhancing international cooperation [8][9] - The event also features bilateral cooperation achievements and celebrations of diplomatic anniversaries with several countries [9] Group 4: Economic Impact - The CIIE is positioned as a significant platform for observing China's high-level opening-up and experiencing its vast market advantages [10] - China has been the world's second-largest import market for 16 consecutive years, with imports expected to exceed $15 trillion during the 14th Five-Year Plan [10] - The expo has generated over $500 billion in intended transaction value over its first seven editions, reinforcing its role in trade facilitation and investment [10][11]

Core Insights - The world is at a crossroads of "openness or closure," with a complex landscape characterized by "overall tightening, increasing differentiation, and momentum transformation" in global openness [1][4][5] - The 2024 World Openness Index is reported at 0.7545, a slight decrease of 0.05% year-on-year, indicating a continued contraction in global openness levels [1][4] Summary by Categories World Openness Index - The 2024 World Openness Index shows a decline of 0.05% compared to 2023, a 0.34% decrease from 2019, and a 5.39% drop from 2008, while it has increased by 7.08% since 1990 [1][4] - China's openness index has risen from 0.5891 in 1990 to 0.7634 in 2024, marking a 29.6% increase, positioning it among the top globally [1][6] Economic Trends - Global foreign direct investment has decreased by 11%, with over 40% of investment restrictions related to foreign capital scrutiny, particularly in high-tech and critical mineral sectors [5] - Economic openness index has declined by 0.22% year-on-year, while cultural openness index has decreased by 0.58%, both below levels from 2019 and 2008 [5] Regional Dynamics - Europe and North America are identified as the only regions experiencing a contraction in openness, while emerging markets and developing economies have seen a 0.42% increase in their openness index [5][6] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that future global openness will increasingly rely on emerging forces, with digital trade becoming a significant growth engine, expanding from $3.5 trillion in 2010 to $8.2 trillion in 2023 [6] - The market for cutting-edge technologies is projected to grow from $2.5 trillion in 2023 to $16.4 trillion by 2033, creating new opportunities for open cooperation and security governance [6] Report Innovations - The report has achieved four major breakthroughs, including collaboration with a Nobel laureate and the expansion of the openness index's time span from 17 to 35 years, providing a more robust data foundation for analyzing long-term trends [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the long-term upward trend of copper prices driven by three main factors: the commodity currency logic, structural supply shortages, and new demand dynamics, while also discussing the recent price pullback and future marginal driving conditions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Copper Price Surge - Commodity currency logic: The global monetary system's credit challenges and major central banks' large-scale easing have led to strong inflation expectations, making copper's "commodity currency" attribute a dominant price driver over its "industrial commodity" attribute [4][10]. - Structural supply shortages: Factors such as "policy-induced stockpiling," "mine production cuts," and "catalytic accidents" have created significant supply pressures, making it easy for demand increases to lead to substantial price hikes [4][28]. - New demand dynamics: The current copper price increase is driven not only by supply tightening but also by significant demand growth from AI computing power, global energy infrastructure reconstruction, and emerging technology sectors, reshaping the long-term supply-demand landscape for copper [4][29]. Group 2: Reasons for Recent Price Pullback - The relative tightening of global dollar liquidity is the main tail risk affecting copper prices, with the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve withdrawing dollar funds from risk assets since October, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar index [5][37]. Group 3: Future Marginal Driving Conditions - The medium to long-term supply-demand gap for copper is predictable, with the largest marginal variables coming from macroeconomic factors that will influence copper prices from the demand side [6][34]. - The continuation of the commodity currency logic is crucial, as the market's perception of physical asset attractiveness remains strong amid expectations of global liquidity easing [34]. - The market's expectations regarding interest rate cuts and the cessation of balance sheet reduction are significant, as they can define recovery or recession scenarios [36][37]. - The gradual reduction of risks in U.S.-China relations may also influence copper prices positively, as recent negotiations have led to a decrease in demand risk [40].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, lacking significant drivers after the temporary easing of trade frictions and the outcome of the October interest - rate meeting. Attention should be paid to the trading window in December, when there may be a game around next year's interest - rate cut space before and after the December interest - rate meeting. [4] - The long - term price center of gold is expected to move upward as debt over - issuance and anti - globalization drive the decline of the US dollar's credit, and gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the US dollar's credit risk. Silver is expected to follow a similar trend, with its price center also moving up in the long run. [4] - The expected price range for London gold this week is [3800, 4200], and for London silver is [46, 52]. [4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogues a. Market Situation - On Tuesday, precious metal prices remained volatile. The US dollar index rebounded above 100 for the first time in nearly two months, the commodity market generally declined, and the global equity market declined in resonance. [2][4] - The US government shutdown has entered its 35th day, tying the 2018 record. The market anticipates a resumption of work in mid - November, and attention should be paid to subsequent US labor data. [2][3][4] b. Key Information - As of November 4th, the US federal government shutdown entered its 35th day, tying the longest shutdown record in US history. The Democratic and Republican parties have been deadlocked, and the Senate will hold its 14th vote on November 4th. [3] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent expects robust and high - speed growth next year without triggering inflation, and believes that inflation and interest rates will decline. [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman said that implementing the Basel Accords is a priority, but capital standards cannot be considered in isolation from reality. [3] c. Index Data - On November 4, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial products index was 2213.57, down 1.07%. [45] - The precious metals index on November 4, 2025, was 3217.48, with a daily decline of 1.10%, a 5 - day increase of 0.09%, a 1 - month increase of 4.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 45.43%. [47]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market, and caution is advised [5][6]. - The stock index futures are expected to have little risk of a sharp decline, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full, and investors can take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11][12]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are likely to remain weak in the medium - term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to be strong in the short - term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss zone again [21][22]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25]. - For fuel oil, investors can look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [27][28]. - Polyolefins may rebound, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [29][30]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [31][33]. - For natural rubber, investors can look for long - buying opportunities [34][35]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [36][37]. - The downside space of urea is limited [38]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and investors can participate in the range, paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term, and investors should be cautious, paying attention to oil price changes [40]. - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate following costs in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - Bottle - grade chips may fluctuate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [43]. - For lithium carbonate, investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - Copper is in a stage of adjustment [46][47]. - Aluminum is expected to run at a high level [48][50]. - Zinc is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [51][52]. - For lead, investors should be cautious about chasing long positions [53][54]. - Tin prices may fluctuate strongly [55]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate [56]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see [57][58]. - Palm oil investors can consider buying on pullbacks [59][60]. - For rapeseed meal, investors can consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts [61][62]. - The upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [63][64]. - The sugar price has certain support at the bottom [66][68]. - Apples are expected to run strongly in the short - term [70][71]. - For live pigs, investors can consider short - selling on rebounds [71][72]. - For eggs, investors can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73][76]. - For corn, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch may follow the corn market [77][79]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank had net liquidity injections in October. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market [5]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The A - share new account opening data in October 2025 decreased year - on - year but increased in the first 10 months. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low and the market sentiment is warming up. It is expected to have little risk of a sharp decline [7][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to precious metals, but the short - term rise is large, and the pricing is full [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium - term, the prices are dominated by industry supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still decreasing year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The demand has declined, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has risen. The supply - demand pattern has weakened [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Last trading day, coke and coking coal futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke is normal. The futures may continue to be strong in the short - term [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed down. The supply is still in excess in the short - term, and the cost is rising. There may be long - buying opportunities at low levels [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The Baker Hughes rig count increased, and OPEC will suspend production increases, which is expected to support oil prices [23][24]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The supply in Singapore has recovered, which is negative, but there are also positive factors such as sanctions on Russia [26][27]. Polyolefins - Last trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao had some price adjustments. The supply is affected by maintenance, the inventory is low, and the demand is in the peak season, so the market may rebound [29]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The cost is weak, and the supply and demand are both affected. It is expected to fluctuate [31][33]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand and inventory are also changing. There may be long - buying opportunities [34][35]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price may have limited downward space and needs improvement in the fundamentals [36][37]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed up. The supply is gradually recovering, the demand is affected by the season, and the profit is narrowing. The downside space is limited [38]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures closed down. The supply and demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [39]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures closed down. The supply is affected by maintenance, the demand is relatively stable, and the processing fee is low. It may fluctuate in the short - term [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The supply is increasing, the inventory may accumulate, and it may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures closed down. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is improving, and it may follow the cost to fluctuate [42]. Bottle - Grade Chips - Last trading day, bottle - grade chips futures closed down. The supply is increasing, the demand is slightly reduced, and it may follow the cost side to fluctuate [43]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures closed down. The supply is at a high level, and the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. Attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [44][45]. Copper - Last trading day, copper futures closed down. The macro - data and the demand are not good, and the supply is also affected. It is in a stage of adjustment [46][47]. Aluminum - Last trading day, aluminum and alumina futures closed down. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter. The price may run at a high level [48][50]. Zinc - Last trading day, zinc futures closed down. The supply is affected by mining problems, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a range [51][52]. Lead - Last trading day, lead futures closed down. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the demand is affected by high prices. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [53][54]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures closed down. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain support. The price may fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures closed down. The supply has concerns, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. It may fluctuate [56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Last trading day, soybean meal futures closed down, and soybean oil futures closed flat. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends. Different strategies are suggested for them [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rebounded. The inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider buying on pullbacks [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is volatile. The import of rapeseed in China has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. Different strategies are suggested [61][62]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic and foreign cotton futures fell. The Sino - US trade situation is favorable in the medium - long term, but the short - term price is affected by harvest pressure and domestic supply - demand [63][64]. Sugar - Last trading day, sugar futures rose and then fell. The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, but the domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has support at the bottom [66][68]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures fell sharply. The quality of apples this year is poor, and the opening price is higher. It is expected to run strongly in the short - term [70][71]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs is weakening. The supply is increasing, and investors can consider short - selling on rebounds [71][72]. Eggs - The price of eggs is stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to be weak. Investors can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures closed down. The harvest pressure of corn continues, and the supply and demand of corn starch have different trends. Corn may be under pressure, and corn starch may follow the corn market [77][79].

Core Insights - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes China's commitment to "self-reliance in technology," "high-quality development," and "high-level opening up," which are seen as crucial for both domestic and global economic stability [1][2] Group 1: Economic Context - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is introduced in a more complex global environment compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting China's proactive approach to challenges and its determination to continue opening up [2] - Experts note that China's focus on expanding consumption is a positive move in response to insufficient domestic demand and global economic imbalances [2][3] Group 2: Policy Signals - The plan sends clear and stable policy signals, aiming to avoid economic damage from policy fluctuations and providing a long-term strategic framework for national governance [3] - It is characterized as a declaration of how China intends to navigate challenges while addressing its own development issues [3] Group 3: Global Engagement - The plan proposes to expand high-level opening up, transitioning from merely removing barriers to establishing rules, indicating a shift towards proactive engagement with international trade standards [4] - China's approach to globalization is evolving from "bringing in" to supporting Chinese enterprises in "going out," creating a new open framework that offers significant market opportunities globally [4] Group 4: Multilateral Cooperation - Experts emphasize the importance of maintaining a favorable environment for free trade and the role of multilateral institutions like the WTO and UN in stabilizing geopolitical dynamics [5] - The need for enhanced economic cooperation between Europe and China is highlighted as essential for maintaining an open trade and investment environment [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given report Group 2: Core Views - The report covers various sectors including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing analyses and trading suggestions for each sector. For example, it expects that treasury bond futures may not have a trending market and advises caution; stock index futures are expected to have limited downside risk and suggests seizing opportunities to go long; precious metals are currently over - priced, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [6][9][11]. Group 3: Sector - Specific Summaries Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw mixed results for treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. China's October S&P manufacturing PMI showed a slowdown in the expansion trend. Given the current economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. With the release of new immigration and entry - exit policies, and considering the current economic situation (stable but with weak recovery momentum), combined with low domestic asset valuations and sufficient economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, it is expected that there is limited downside risk, and opportunities to go long can be seized [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed small increases. Fed officials' remarks suggest potential interest rate cuts. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the slowdown of the US labor market are all favorable for precious metals. However, due to the recent large increase in prices, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11]. Commodities - **Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, steel product futures slightly declined. In the medium term, the price of steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still in a year - on - year decline, and the supply side has over - capacity issues. Considering the current high inventory, the price of rebar is expected to remain weak, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices during rebounds [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures significantly declined. The demand for iron ore has decreased, while the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is rising. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the price of coke is facing an upward adjustment. From a technical perspective, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, ferroalloy futures showed small increases. The supply of ferroalloys is currently in a state of over - supply, but the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. There may be short - term disturbances in supply reduction expectations, and investors can consider long - position opportunities at low prices [21][22]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The increase in the number of US drilling rigs does not necessarily lead to an increase in production. US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC's decision to suspend production increases are all favorable for oil prices. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The recovery of Singapore's fuel oil supply is negative for prices, while the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26][27]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets showed some adjustments. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be high, and the inventory is low. November is the peak season for demand, so the market is expected to rebound. For now, it is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost side is weak, and the price is expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes. The market is expected to oscillate [31][33]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply is affected by bad weather, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to production area conditions and demand expectations, and there may be long - position opportunities [34][35]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The current supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to export and supply reduction after the festival [36][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures declined. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to export policies and seasonal recovery signals of agricultural demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures increased. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost side is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures increased. The supply side has some adjustments, and the demand side is relatively stable. The processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil prices [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. However, the demand is expected to improve, and the cost side sentiment is positive. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to port inventory and imports [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is improving, but the cost - driving force is limited. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle chip futures increased. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is increasing slightly, and the export growth is slowing down. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should control risks [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is also strong, with the inventory gradually decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation is in a stalemate, and the Fed's interest rate cut has a complex impact on copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high prices suppress demand. The price is expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [46][47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures showed mixed results. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions. High prices may suppress demand, but the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain at a high level [48][49][50]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures increased. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the production of refined zinc is limited. The demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [51][52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures increased. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is recovering slowly. High prices suppress demand. The price is supported by low inventory and cost, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [53][54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain support. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. The macro - environment has improved, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply of high - grade nickel ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [55]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal futures increased, and soybean oil futures decreased. Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, and the Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is suppressed. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long - positions in soybean meal and wait and see for soybean oil [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the market is expected to be weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [61][62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US trade relations are favorable in the long - term, but short - term international cotton prices are under pressure. Domestic cotton has a strong production expectation, and the demand is neutral - weak. The price is expected to have limited upward space [63][64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded. Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts price rebounds. The domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has certain support at the bottom [65][66][67]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined. The quality of this year's apples is poor, and the opening price is higher than last year. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [69][70][71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, live pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to be weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [72][73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [74][75]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and starch futures increased. The price of corn is affected by the rise in soybean prices. The inventory situation is complex, and the demand is growing slightly. The price of corn is expected to be under pressure, and starch may follow the trend of corn [76][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with a trading window in December. In the long run, the price center of gold is expected to move upward, and silver's price center is expected to follow gold's long - term upward trend [1][3][6]. - Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and the global central bank's gold - buying trend continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - On Monday, precious metal prices oscillated. After the domestic market opened, prices fell slightly and then recovered. The domestic gold tax adjustment policy had little impact on the gold market, but some spot gold prices increased due to tax transfer after the reform [1][3]. - After the phased easing of trade frictions and the October interest - rate meeting, there is no significant driver for precious metal prices this month. In December, there may be a game around next year's interest - rate cut space. Personnel changes at the Fed may become a positive driving factor. In the long run, over - issued debt and de - globalization drive the decline of the US dollar's credit, making gold a good hedge [3][6]. 3.2 Key Information - According to a poll, 52% of US voters think the Republican Party is responsible for the government shutdown, 42% blame the Democratic Party, and 4% think both are responsible. The proportion blaming the Democratic Party is the highest in nearly 30 years [2]. - The US Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy. Trump believes it is one of the most important rulings in the court's history and warns of serious consequences if he has to abandon the policy [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that parts of the US economy may be in recession due to high interest rates and called on the Fed to cut rates faster. Stephen Milan, a dovish Fed official, also called for more aggressive rate cuts [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and London silver in the range of [46, 52] [6]. 3.4 Index Performance - On November 3, 2025, the composite index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2546.82 (+0.02%), the industrial products index was 2237.50 (+0.09%), and the PPI commodity index was 1352.44 (+0.15%) [44]. - The precious metals index on November 3, 2025, was 3253.40, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.76%, a 1 - month increase of 7.80%, and a year - to - date increase of 47.05% [45].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of China's globalization efforts amid a complex international environment, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for Chinese enterprises in their overseas expansion. Group 1: External Environment and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" acknowledges the intensified international competition and challenges posed by unilateralism, protectionism, and geopolitical tensions, which affect Chinese enterprises' overseas operations [2][3]. - The International Monetary Fund forecasts global GDP growth rates of 3.2% and 3.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a relatively slow economic growth environment [2]. - Changes in trade policies, such as new tariffs imposed by countries like Mexico on imports from China, complicate the export landscape for Chinese companies [3]. Group 2: Opportunities for Globalization - The "15th Five-Year Plan" introduces new proposals for Chinese enterprises to actively shape international environments and leverage their advantages in global supply chains [4]. - Chinese enterprises are increasingly demonstrating strong global market competitiveness, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and 5G technology, despite geopolitical pressures [5]. Group 3: Cultural and Traditional Industry Development - The plan emphasizes the importance of enhancing the influence of Chinese culture globally, encouraging cultural enterprises to expand overseas [7][9]. - There is a focus on optimizing and upgrading traditional industries, with specific mentions of enhancing the global competitiveness of sectors such as mining, metallurgy, and textiles [10]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Connectivity - The plan highlights the need for robust international logistics and infrastructure, aiming to improve trade facilitation through diversified and resilient transportation networks [12]. - The ongoing geopolitical factors affecting trade are acknowledged, yet the overall trend towards globalization remains strong, necessitating improved logistics to enhance competitiveness [12]. Group 5: Service Trade and Financial Integration - The "15th Five-Year Plan" places greater emphasis on the development of service trade, aiming to expand market access and improve service trade standards [15]. - The plan also stresses the importance of advancing the internationalization of the Renminbi and building a self-controlled cross-border payment system, which will facilitate trade and reduce risks for Chinese enterprises [16].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2025 is experiencing significant divergence, with traditional industries like manufacturing and real estate under pressure from tariffs and immigration policies, while the technology sector is seeing a surge in capital expenditure driven by the AI wave [2][3] Supply Side: Tariff and Population Pressure - The supply contraction in the U.S. economy is expected to persist due to increased tariffs and a slowdown in population growth, with the effective tariff rate rising from 2.4% last year to 9.8% this year [5][6] - Immigration policies have tightened, leading to a significant decrease in new immigrants, with labor force growth projected to drop from an average of 1.5% during the Biden administration to 0.6% during Trump's second term [6][8] - The potential for productivity improvement through AI is acknowledged, but it is expected to take time to materialize, with estimates suggesting AI could contribute approximately 0.2 percentage points to annual productivity growth by the early 2030s [7][8] Demand Side: Capital Expenditure Cycle Fluctuations - The AI investment cycle is anticipated to face volatility, with AI contributing about 0.7 percentage points to U.S. real GDP growth in the first half of 2025, but the marginal returns on capital are expected to decline as investment scales up [10][11] - The current phase of AI investment is heavily focused on data centers and hardware, resembling a "new infrastructure" cycle, with 2025 likely being the peak for investment growth [10][11] - The cost of AI infrastructure is projected to be significantly higher than during the internet bubble era, influenced by high inflation and tariffs, which may lead to increased sensitivity among investors regarding returns [11][12] Fiscal, Monetary, and "Stagflation" Risks - Fiscal and monetary policies are expected to see marginal easing, but the overall stimulus effect is likely to be limited, with the Trump administration's "Great Beautiful Act" potentially increasing the fiscal deficit by about 0.8 percentage points in 2026 [19][20] - The Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates cumulatively by 50 basis points in 2026, with the federal funds rate expected to end the year in the range of 3%-3.25% [19][20] - The U.S. economy is currently exhibiting "stagflation" characteristics, with rising material costs and declining consumer confidence, necessitating vigilance against further "stagflation" risks in the first half of 2026 [20][21]