Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is suggested [10][11]. - In the case of steel products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on opportunities to go short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and proper position management [13]. - For iron ore, investors can look for opportunities to go long at low positions, with timely profit - taking on rebounds and stop - loss if the previous low is broken [15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on opportunities to go short on rebounds, with timely profit - taking and proper position management [18]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term demand has reached its peak, and the supply is still high. It's advisable to be cautious for long positions. If the spot losses increase significantly, consider low - value call options [20][21]. - For crude oil, it's expected to oscillate at a low level, and investors can focus on going long opportunities for the main contract [23][24]. - For fuel oil, it's expected to gradually bottom out in the short term. After the decline eases, look for opportunities to go long. Currently, the main contract is recommended to be on the sidelines [25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to opportunities to go long after it stabilizes [29][30]. - For PVC, it's expected to oscillate and consolidate temporarily [31][32]. - For urea, it's expected to oscillate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33][34]. - For PX, it will oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious when participating and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and the Middle - East situation [35]. - For PTA, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Participate with a light position and control risks [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, be cautious about the downside space. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - For short - fiber, follow the cost side and participate with a light position. Look for opportunities to widen the processing margin at low levels [39][40]. - For bottle - grade chips, it's expected to oscillate following the cost side. Be cautious when participating and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing margin at low levels [41]. - For soda ash, it's expected to adjust weakly in the short term, and it's not advisable to chase short - term rebounds excessively [42][43]. - For glass, although there may be short - term bullish sentiment, its sustainability is limited. Short - position holders at low levels should control their positions, and it's not advisable to chase short - term rebounds excessively [44]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and regional differences are obvious. Previous long - position holders should control their positions [45][46]. - For pulp, the market is under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [47]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale elimination of mine - end capacity. Pay attention to warehouse receipts [48]. - For copper, the expectation of increased stimulus policies in China in the second half of the year is expected to support copper prices, and consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [49][50]. - For tin, it's expected to oscillate strongly [51]. - For nickel, it's expected to oscillate [52]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - support intervals and call - option opportunities for soybean oil after its decline [53][54]. - For palm oil, consider opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [55][56]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider opportunities to go long on the oil - meal ratio [57][58]. - For cotton, consider opportunities to go long on the oil - meal ratio [59][60]. - For sugar, it's advisable to wait and see [61][64]. - For apples, pay attention to third - party research data on production as the estimated reduction in production is less than expected [65][66]. - For live pigs, pay attention to the supply - side volume increase. Consider taking profits on long - spreads for peak - season contracts [66][67]. - For eggs, consider short - selling on rebounds [68][70]. - For corn and corn starch, it's advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch follows the corn market [71][73]. - For logs, beware of short - term corrections as the market sentiment is stimulated in the short term, but the premium on the futures is relatively sufficient [75][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close higher. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.28%, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% [5]. - The central bank conducted 131 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 1st, with a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [5]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. Supply and demand both rebounded to some extent [6]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.03%, the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract rose 0.08%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.01%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract fell 0.36% [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 776.1 with a 1.11% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 8,810 with a 0.55% increase [10]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The latest price of Tangshan billet was 2,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 2,990 - 3,090 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,170 - 3,190 yuan/ton [12][13]. - The downward trend in the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The market is in the off - season, and prices are at a low level with limited downward space [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. PB powder port spot price was 700 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder was 592 yuan/ton [15]. - The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the price valuation is relatively high among black - series products [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures dropped significantly. The tightening of environmental inspections in major coal - producing areas previously pushed up coking coal prices, but the rebound may be near the end [17][18]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.95% to 5,624 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 2.04% to 5,270 yuan/ton [20]. - The supply of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high [20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil bottomed out and rebounded, with a slowing decline. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased to the lowest level since October 2021 [22]. - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, and crude oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [22][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The fuel oil inventory in Fujairah exceeded 10 million barrels, and the supply is sufficient [25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.09%. The supply pressure eased slightly, and demand improvement was limited [27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.61%, and the 20 - grade rubber main contract rose 1.15%. The price may continue to oscillate widely [29]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 2.09%. Production is expected to decline, demand shows no sign of improvement, and cost support is strengthening [31]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.35%. Agricultural demand is ending, and industrial demand is tepid. Pay attention to the export situation [33]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell 0.47%. The supply - demand balance is tight, but cost support is insufficient [35]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell 0.5%. Some production facilities are under maintenance, demand has declined, and cost support is weak [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.02%. The overall operating load decreased, inventory decreased significantly, and demand is weak [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2508 main contract rose 0.7%. Supply is high, demand is weak, and cost drivers are insufficient [39][40]. Bottle - Grade Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - grade chips 2509 main contract fell 0.4%. Raw material prices are weak, but production facility maintenance has increased [41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract closed at 1,161 yuan/ton, down 0.68%. Production decreased slightly, and inventory increased [42]. Glass - The previous trading day, the glass 2509 main contract closed at 990 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There is no obvious driving force in the supply - demand fundamentals [44]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract closed at 2,365 yuan/ton, up 2.07%. Production increased slightly, and inventory rose [45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp 2509 main contract closed at 5,022 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The market showed a dual decline in futures and spot prices [47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. Supply remains high, and demand has improved slightly [48]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79,860 - 80,120 yuan/ton [49]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated, rising 0.32% to 268,200 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight [51]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose 0.05% to 120,450 yuan/ton. The cost support has weakened, and consumption is not optimistic [52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.10% to 2,961 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.03% to 7,972 yuan/ton [53]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, Malaysian palm oil continued to decline. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased by 53% year - on - year [55]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - In May 2025, China's rapeseed oil imports were 111,100 tons, down 38.9% month - on - month, and rapeseed meal imports were 194,600 tons, down 34.8% month - on - month [57]. Cotton - Similar to rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, in May 2025, China's rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal imports decreased [59]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fell slightly, and overnight, ICE raw sugar fell 3% [61]. Apples - The previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The estimated reduction in apple production is less than expected [65]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the national average price of live pigs was 15.08 yuan/kg, up 0.19 yuan. Group - farm slaughter volume decreased at the beginning of the month [66]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.65 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan, and in the main sales areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan [68]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.29% to 2,383 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.44% to 2,743 yuan/ton [71]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs closed at 787.0 yuan/ton, down 0.69%. Overseas export willingness has decreased, and domestic inventory is decreasing [74][75].

Group 1 - The US-China trade war has led to significant lessons for the US, including the need to reassess its hegemonic position and the impossibility of decoupling the two economies [1] - The trade relationship between the US and China is interdependent, with both countries having mutual economic interests [1] - President Trump announced a new agreement where the US will impose a 55% tariff on China, while China will impose a 10% tariff on the US, maintaining exports of magnets and rare earth materials [1] Group 2 - Trump has decided to lift the ban on US ethane exports to China, primarily due to the adverse effects on US businesses and the need for China to ease its rare earth export controls [3] - The US has failed to establish a coalition against China regarding tariffs, with only the UK as a notable ally, indicating a lack of international support for US trade policies [3] - China's response to US tariffs has played a crucial role in maintaining fairness in the international trade system, despite not actively seeking alliances against the US [3] Group 3 - The current trade negotiations show that China holds the initiative in discussions, with the US seeking China's cooperation, highlighting China's growing strength in negotiations [5] - The trade friction between the US and China is largely attributed to the US projecting its domestic issues onto other countries, rather than being a result of genuine trade disputes [5] - China's strategic control over rare earth resources is emphasized, with a cautious approach to US commitments due to past instances of the US reneging on agreements [7][8]

Group 1 - The spot gold price reached $3320 per ounce on July 1, with a year-to-date increase of over 25% as of June 30 [1] - The gold ETF (518880) showed active performance, rising 0.68% with a trading volume exceeding 1.2 billion yuan, leading among similar products [1] - A report from Galaxy Securities predicts that the COMEX gold price may steadily break through $3300 per ounce, with a potential to reach $3500 per ounce under extreme risk scenarios [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities indicates that the precious metals market will continue to differentiate in the second half of the year, with gold prices expected to rise due to weakened dollar credit and increased safe-haven demand [2] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment and tight supply-demand dynamics, leading to amplified price elasticity [2] - The demand resilience in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics will support energy metals, despite being in a clearing cycle [2]

早间评论 西南期货研究所 2025 年 7 月 1 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.43%报 120.420 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.16%报 108.895 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 106.160 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.05%报 102.498 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，6 月 30 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3315 亿 元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 3315 亿元，中标量 3315 亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日 2205 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 1110 亿元。 中国 6 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.7，前值 49.5，制造业景气水平继续改善。中国 6 月官方非制造业 PMI 为 50.5，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，非制造业总体继续保持扩张。 6 月份，综合 PMI 产出指 ...

2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | | 铁合金: | | ا ے | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | .. | | | 乙二醇: | . | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂 · | | ...

·西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。短期内，黄金价格走势受地缘政治冲突的影响。因此贵 金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 ·铜冠金源期货：预计短期金银价格近期将延续调整 ·银河期货：贵金属总体上仍然处于震荡调整之中 ·RJO Futures：风险偏好改善占据主导背景下金价或进一步回落 ·FXStreet：风险偏好改善金价短期仍可能进一步下跌长期仍保持看涨基调 【机构分析】 ·铜冠金源期货表示，当前中东地缘风险缓和，尽管美加贸易关系再度紧张，但中美贸易关系有所缓 和，且美国核心PCE超预期上涨也支持美联储主席鲍威尔表示没有降息紧迫性的观点，降低市场宽松预 期，都对避险资产形成压力，预计短期金银价格近期将延续调整。 ·银河期货表示，近日，市场的焦点逐渐从伊以冲突转回美联储的货币政策路径以及关税谈判期是否可 能延长。货币政策路径方面，大多数美联储官员的发言暂时维持观望态度，但提及秋季可能降息，市场 对于下半年的降息预期有所提升，对下半年降息次数的押注上升至三次。总体 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses trends in the virtual asset industry following the introduction of stablecoin legislation in the United States and Hong Kong, highlighting the impact of geopolitical risks on decentralized finance adoption [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Influence**: The expulsion of Russia from the SWIFT system has accelerated the adoption of decentralized finance, with developing countries increasingly using crypto finance for value storage and transaction payments [2]. - **Correlation with Monetary Supply**: Bitcoin prices are highly correlated with global M2 money supply, suggesting that a loose monetary policy in the U.S. could drive up Bitcoin and other risk assets [1][3]. - **Stablecoin Legislation**: The U.S. aims to extend dollar hegemony into blockchain, while Hong Kong seeks to create a digital financial experimental zone to facilitate the internationalization of the Renminbi [1][5]. - **Market Growth Projections**: The stablecoin market is expected to grow rapidly, with Citigroup predicting it could reach $1.6 trillion by 2030, and U.S. Treasury Secretary suggesting it could hit $2 trillion within three years [1][8]. Additional Important Content - **Impact on Traditional Financial Institutions**: Stablecoin trading volumes have surpassed the combined market capitalization of Visa and Mastercard, indicating potential disruption to traditional financial revenue streams [3][9]. - **Stablecoin Market Dynamics**: The market is characterized by a concentration of major players, with Tether (USDT) holding over 60% market share and Circle (USDC) around 25%. Key competitive factors include customer acquisition, security, and liquidity [12]. - **Regulatory Landscape**: Both U.S. and Hong Kong stablecoin regulations emphasize compliance and risk prevention, with the U.S. prohibiting interest payments to users [7]. - **Real World Assets (RWA)**: RWA refers to the tokenization of physical assets on the blockchain, enhancing liquidity and efficiency in financial transactions. Examples include Blackrock's tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds [16][17]. Future Trends and Risks - **Institutional Participation**: Major financial institutions like Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase are beginning to apply for stablecoin licenses, indicating a shift towards institutional involvement in the stablecoin market [11]. - **Challenges for Circle**: Circle faces risks related to its revenue dependence on interest income from U.S. Treasury rates and its reliance on B2B channels without direct consumer engagement [15]. - **Market Competition**: The stablecoin market is expected to see increased competition as compliance and institutionalization progress, potentially squeezing out non-compliant players [8][12]. Conclusion - The virtual asset industry is undergoing significant transformation driven by regulatory changes, geopolitical factors, and evolving market dynamics. The growth of stablecoins and RWAs presents both opportunities and challenges for traditional financial institutions and new entrants alike.

金属行业 2025 年中期投资策略系列报告之贵金属篇 20250627 摘要 金价在 501 美元/盎司后震荡，当前降息和地缘政治缓和预期构成买点。 2024 年末美国经济向好预期曾导致金价下跌，2025 年初俄乌冲突缓和 及 4 月关税政策也曾使金价承压，但截至 6 月 27 日仍呈上行趋势。 把握逆全球化、美元/美债不可持续性及美国经济支撑降息预期三大宏观 叙事主线是把握黄金牛市的关键。美国经济软指标向好但硬指标仍显悲 观，衰退预期持续，一季度 GDP 为 2022 年来新低，出口下滑，PMI 指 数持续收缩。 美联储降息周期通常利好黄金，市场普遍预计 2025 年 9 月降息，全年 降息约三次。7 月中旬债务上限谈判若无进展，8 月中下旬可能出现技 术性违约，债务问题将进一步利好黄金。 2025 财年第一季度美国利息支出为第四大支出项目，特朗普政府时期 的大额财政支出推高债务上限，长期债务问题引发美元和美债下行，推 动金价上涨。债务达 40 万亿美元时，金价或达 3,900 美元/盎司。 美联储资产负债表自 2020 年 1 月以来扩张 60%，货币超发导致货币信 用体系下降，增加黄金作为避险资产的需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The forum aims to provide a high-end platform for Chinese enterprises to explore opportunities and challenges in global expansion amidst the restructuring of global industrial chains [1]. Group 1: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - The first opportunity is to leverage the significant changes in the global economic system, particularly through the "Belt and Road" initiative, which has established a legal framework for Chinese enterprises to invest and trade abroad, with 250 cooperation agreements signed with 150 countries and over 30 international organizations [4]. - The second opportunity lies in utilizing the new scientific and technological revolution, where China's large manufacturing sector can benefit from advanced technologies like artificial intelligence, enhancing international competitiveness [4]. - The third opportunity is to seize the restructuring of global industrial chains, emphasizing that competition is shifting from company-to-company to industry-to-industry, encouraging Chinese enterprises to adopt a multi-national and diversified approach in their global strategies [4][5].

Group 1 - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" was held in Shenzhen, focusing on providing a high-end platform for Chinese companies to address challenges in globalization and explore collaborative transformation paths [1] - The summit was co-hosted by the Global Council for Chinese Enterprises Going Global, emphasizing the need for resource connection and dialogue on rules amidst deep restructuring of global industrial chains [1] Group 2 - Long Yongtu, former Vice Minister of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, criticized the US's tariff plan initiated by President Trump, stating it undermines the global tariff system established over decades [3] - He highlighted that the US's actions represent a shift from rule-based globalization to one based on national interests, which could lead to the exclusion of certain countries from the globalization process [3] - Long emphasized that the global trade and investment outlook remains hopeful despite the challenges posed by unilateral actions from the US, as countries are resisting the tariff plan [3]