Core Insights - The recent fluctuations in oil prices have created uncertainty for consumers and the market, with a brief increase followed by a potential decrease in prices [1][3] - The international oil market has shown a trend of more declines than increases, impacting domestic pricing strategies [3] Price Adjustments - On November 11, domestic oil prices increased, but soon after, a downward adjustment of 30 CNY/ton was reported, closely aligning with the standard reduction threshold [3] - Following the initial increase, the price adjustment on November 12 indicated a further expected decrease of 15 CNY/ton, despite recent international price increases [3] Market Dynamics - Current international oil prices are reported at 60.73 USD/barrel for U.S. crude and 64.67 USD/barrel for Brent crude, reflecting minor daily fluctuations that influence broader market trends [3] - The relationship between oil prices and economic indicators is highlighted, suggesting that lower oil prices could reduce commuting costs but may also signal broader economic concerns [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of precious metals is expected to be oscillating strongly, the medium - term trend is high - level oscillation, and the long - term trend is step - by - step upward. The core logic includes short - term hedging factors (Sino - US talks' negative impact is realized, geopolitical risks remain; US employment weakens and inflation is moderate, so the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation remains), hedging attributes (results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations are announced, and geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East remain), monetary attributes (the expectation that the US government may end the shutdown and economic data recovery may create conditions for the Fed to cut interest rates next month boosts the market, with the US dollar index and US Treasury yields under pressure to fall), and commodity attributes (the CRB commodity index oscillates weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices) [1]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex gold and London gold show different changes compared to the previous day and week. Domestic prices of Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D have increased. There are also various changes in basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, and other data. For example, the Comex gold主力 contract's closing price is $4007.80 per ounce, up $23.00 (0.58%) from the previous day and down $5.60 (-0.14%) from the previous week [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [3]. Silver - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver have different changes. Domestic prices of Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D have increased. There are also changes in basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. For example, the Comex silver主力 contract's closing price is $48.23 per ounce, up $0.38 (0.79%) from the previous day and down $0.02 (-0.05%) from the previous week [7]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The federal funds target rate ceiling, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets are $66236.43 billion, down $135.35 billion (-0.00%) from the previous period. M2's year - on - year growth rate is 4.49%, up 0.01% [9]. - **Other Economic Data**: The ten - year US Treasury real yield, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data all show different trends and changes [9][11]. - **Other Key Indicators**: There are also data on central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate [11][13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The stock index oscillated today, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking again. The dividend index led the rise, and market sentiment was cautious. However, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the open interest increased, indicating that the willingness of long - positions to enter the market strengthened, showing significant long - short game characteristics. The sharp drop in US ADP private sector employment hinted at a continued cooling of the US labor market, raising expectations of a Fed rate cut. The potential end of the US government shutdown also boosted market sentiment. In China, on one hand, the continuous high - level oscillation of the index increased the willingness of funds to take profits, creating callback pressure. On the other hand, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report emphasized strengthening expectation guidance, and policy expectations provided solid support for the index. Therefore, the index is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released this week, which may provide new trading clues if it shows improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index oscillated today, with the broader - market index relatively stronger. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.13%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 485.52 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IH rose with increasing volume, while other varieties fell with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy report stated that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest - rate ratio should be maintained. It also plans to develop the "science and technology board" of the bond market, use risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and formulate a development plan for financial technology during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and promote the application of large AI models in the financial field in a steady and orderly manner. - The "small non - farm" ADP private sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years [3]. Strategy Recommendation Hold positions and wait and see. The table shows the intraday percentage changes, trading volumes, trading volume changes compared to the previous period, open interests, and open interest changes compared to the previous period of IF, IH, IC, and IM [5]. Spot Market Observation The table shows the percentage changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, the trading volume of the two markets, and the change in trading volume compared to the previous period [6]. Other Data Presentations There are also data presentations on the ratio of margin trading volume to A - share trading volume, cross - variety strength comparisons, premium and discount rates of different stock index futures, and price - earnings ratios of different stock indexes, but specific numerical analyses are not provided in the text [7][8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations driven by weak employment data raising interest rate cut expectations, while the impending vote on the U.S. funding bill provides short-term support for the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Market Reactions - Recent ADP data indicates that the average weekly layoffs in the U.S. private sector reached approximately 11,250, signaling a notable cooling in the job market [1]. - The weak employment data has significantly increased the market's bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool [1][3]. - Market participants are closely monitoring speeches from several Federal Reserve officials for further policy guidance [1]. Group 2: Currency and Commodity Movements - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) stabilized in the range of 99.50 to 99.55, recovering from previous declines [2]. - Gold prices maintained above $4,100, with fluctuations primarily between $4,100 and $4,150, supported by rate cut expectations [2][3]. - The Australian dollar (AUD) saw a slight increase to 0.6550, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's officials maintaining a tightening stance [2]. Group 3: Political Developments and Economic Outlook - The Senate has passed a temporary funding bill, which is now under consideration in the House of Representatives; successful passage could alleviate government shutdown risks and restore the release of official data [1][3]. - The ongoing developments in the funding bill and the upcoming employment data release are expected to be key catalysts for market direction [3].

Group 1 - Gold prices attracted dip-buying due to concerns over weakening U.S. economic momentum, with expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts continuing to pressure the dollar and support non-yielding gold [1][2] - The recent U.S. government shutdown has raised worries about deteriorating fiscal outlook and economic momentum, with economists estimating a potential reduction in quarterly GDP growth by approximately 1.5%-2.0% [1] - The labor market continues to show signs of deterioration, with a reported decrease of 9,100 jobs in October and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, reinforcing expectations for a dovish Federal Reserve policy [2] Group 2 - The XAU/USD pair is showing resilience below the key support level of $4,100, with potential upward movement if buying pressure can break through the $4,150-$4,155 range [3][5] - Technical indicators suggest that if gold prices can decisively break above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $4,200, it could pave the way for further short-term appreciation [5] - Conversely, immediate support is seen in the $4,100-$4,095 area, with critical support at $4,075; a breakdown below this level could trigger technical selling and push prices down towards $4,000 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of the US private - sector employment supports the precious metal prices. The expected end of the US federal government shutdown, the decrease in US private - sector employment data, and the increase in the probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut, along with geopolitical risks and central banks' gold - buying, may support precious metal prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 933.02 yuan/g, with a trading volume of 63,048. COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 4,133.20 dollars/ounce, and the London gold spot price was 4,123.30 dollars/ounce. SPDR gold ETF holding was 1,041.78 tons [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 11,865 yuan/10g, COMEX futures active contract's closing price was 51.08 dollars/ounce, and the London silver spot price was 51.24 dollars/ounce. US iShare silver ETF holding was 15,088.63 tons [1] Important Information - From Oct 25, the US private sector lost an average of 11,250 jobs per week in four weeks. The White House National Economic Council Director said some US October data might be lost forever [1] Multi - and Short - Logic - Republicans' agreement to vote on extending ACA subsidies may end the government shutdown, leading to cash - outflow expectations. Weak employment data in October has increased the probability of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. Geopolitical risks and central banks' gold - buying may support precious metal prices [1] Trading Strategy - It is advisable to go long when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support at 3,850 - 3,950 and resistance at 4,180 - 4,384; for Shanghai gold, support at 870 - 890 and resistance at 960 - 1,000. For London silver, support at 38 - 45 and resistance at 55 - 60; for Shanghai silver, support at 9,500 - 10,500 and resistance at 12,000 - 12,500 [1]

另外，今日黄金回收价格下跌7.6元/克。不同品牌回收价差较大，以下为部分金店回收参考价： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年11月12日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 932. 70 | 元/克 | | 菜自黄金 | 935.70 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 925.00 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 934. 30 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 943. 20 | 元/克 | 11月12日金价速报，国内部分品牌金店的首饰金价小幅上涨，涨幅大多在5元/克。其中，周大生黄金上涨5元/克，报1313元/ 克，与潮宏基并列新的最高价金店；上海中国黄金再次稳定，报价1218元/克，还是最低价金店。今日金价高低价差继续扩 大，报95元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年11月12日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1310 | 元/克 | ...

Market Performance - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results on November 12, 2025, with silver rising over 2% and other commodities like tin, butadiene rubber, SC crude oil, rapeseed oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and iron ore increasing by more than 1% [2] - On the downside, shipping European routes and eggs fell over 3%, while red dates dropped more than 2%, and coking coal, coke, and glass decreased by over 1% [2] Employment Data Impact - The U.S. ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 45,000 jobs in October, marking the largest decline in two and a half years, which has raised expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [3] - Following the employment data release, gold prices experienced a rebound, influenced by the market's adjustment to the anticipated reopening of the U.S. government [3] Geopolitical Context - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that bilateral dialogue between Russia and the U.S. continues, but progress is slower than expected [3] - Domestic gold policy changes have sparked market discussions, leading to a significant increase in domestic gold jewelry prices, which may suppress short-term demand for gold jewelry among consumers [3]

Group 1 - The cautious sentiment in the precious metals sector is driven by changes in real interest rates, which are inversely related to the prices of precious metals [1] - Previous expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve led to a decline in real interest rates, supporting the prices of gold and silver [1] - As expectations for rate cuts diminish, the upward pressure on real interest rates increases, reducing the attractiveness of precious metals and causing price fluctuations [1] Group 2 - Precious metals possess safe-haven attributes, which may attract investment if high interest rates from the Federal Reserve increase global economic growth risks or geopolitical tensions escalate [1] - There exists a conflict between short-term cautious expectations and long-term support for precious metals, creating a dynamic market environment [1]

经济数据将密集发布：政府重启后，此前延迟的大量经济数据（如就业报告）将陆续公布。如果数据持续显示美国经济放缓，可能强化美联储的降息预期， 利好黄金。 美联储政策的不确定性 根据CME"美联储观察"工具，市场目前预测美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为64.1%，较此前90%的预期已大幅降温。 若金价回调至4090-4100美元支撑区域，可以考虑轻仓试多，止损参考4080美元下方，短期目标看向4130-4150-4200美元。 若金价反弹至4140-4160美元的强阻力区并出现受阻迹象（如上涨动能减弱），可以轻仓试空，短期目标看向4110-4098美元/盎司，上破4160美元/盎司则考 虑止损。 以上策略，仅供参考。市场瞬息万变，操作时请务必轻仓并设置好止损。 影响黄金波动的关键因素 美国政策与数据预期 政府"停摆"结束：美国参议院已通过临时拨款法案，政府重启后预计将释放约7000亿美元被冻结的资金。这增加了市场流动性，对金价构成支撑，但其实际 影响节奏尚不确定。 第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 在流动性充裕的背景下，美联储可能放缓降息节奏，转而使用其他工具呵护资金面。 ...