在经历了数年深度调整后，今年以来恒生指数迎来了一轮显著的估值修复行情。日前，惠理集团投资组 合总监盛今在接受上证报记者采访时表示，这一转变主要得益于全球资金向非美市场再平衡的趋势，以 及产业叙事引领下的资产重估。他说，尽管近期港股有所波动，但在多重利好因素推动下，市场中长期 前景依然值得看好。 在盛今看来，估值变化可能是外资更为重视的观察视角和底层逻辑之一。经过4年调整，恒生指数在 2024年底的市盈率低至约10.6倍，风险溢价处于历史90%分位以上，具备较高的安全边际。同时，国际 投资者逐渐形成一种共识，即越来越多中国企业具备全球竞争力，可能享有更高的估值溢价。截至今年 10月底，海外主动资金配置中国市场的比例升至7.2%。 盛今表示，当前港股的估值已位于历史均值上方1.5至1.7个标准差区间，短期内或存在一定回调压力。 但从中长期看，政策方向的日益清晰有助于改善市场预期。同时，海外资金流入的加速也将为市场提供 支撑，中国权益市场的中长期投资价值值得关注。 今年以来，南向资金持续呈现强劲流入态势。Choice数据显示，截至11月12日，今年以来南向资金累计 净流入规模已超1.2万亿元。 盛今表示，南向资金在 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.3% and the Dow Jones falling nearly 800 points, while Tesla's stock decreased by over 6% [3] - The European Union is reportedly accelerating efforts to tax small package imports from China, with plans to implement this by early next year [3] - The Federal Reserve's Daly stated that it is too early to definitively predict whether there will be a rate cut in December [3] Group 2 - China's social financing increased by 0.81 trillion yuan in October, with new RMB loans amounting to 0.22 trillion yuan, and the M2-M1 spread widening [3] - The National Energy Administration encourages qualified private capital to participate in the investment and construction of oil and gas reserves and LNG receiving stations [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing visited financial regulatory bodies in France and Brazil, engaging in discussions with international institutional investors [3] Group 3 - Tencent reported a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q3, with adjusted net profit rising 18%, both exceeding expectations [3] - JD.com achieved Q3 revenue of 299.1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 14.9%, surpassing forecasts [3] - Bilibili's adjusted net profit for Q3 was 786 million yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 233% [3] Group 4 - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC reported a net profit of 1.517 billion yuan for Q3, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.1% [3] - Alibaba has secretly launched the "Qianwen" project, aiming to compete directly with ChatGPT [3] - Tencent and Apple have reached a revenue-sharing agreement for WeChat games, with Apple's cut reduced to 15% [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the revaluation of Chinese assets is just beginning, with past challenges being addressed through innovation, restructuring, and international expansion [1] - The recent policy measures in China, including interest rate cuts and consumption subsidies, have mitigated economic tail risks, prompting investors to reassess the capital market [2] - The emergence of DeepSeek has shifted investor perceptions regarding China's innovation capabilities, highlighting an increase in the educated workforce contributing to economic growth [2] Group 2 - Chinese companies are adapting to global uncertainties by seeking new modes of international expansion, focusing on localized production rather than simple supply chain restructuring [2] - There is a growing skepticism towards the "American exceptionalism," leading investors to explore non-dollar assets, with Asian countries accounting for two-thirds of investments outside the U.S. [3] - The competitive advantages of Chinese manufacturing are becoming evident in GDP defined by the renminbi, with improvements in corporate profitability and balance sheets being observed [3]

Core Insights - The investment landscape is evolving with a focus on diversified asset allocation, particularly in the context of the upcoming "post-4000 point era" in A-shares, where investors are keen on identifying opportunities and risks in AI technology and other sectors [1] Fragment 1: New World Outline - The three main themes for 2023 are global cycle misalignment, AI technology revolution, and global capital reallocation, while 2024 will focus on the "exceptionalism" of the U.S. and weak domestic prices [2] - By 2025, the themes will shift to global order reconstruction, asset revaluation in China, deepening AI chains, and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2][3] - The market is experiencing a reconfiguration due to geopolitical shifts and the AI investment boom, which is expected to drive performance in sectors like optical modules [2] Fragment 2: AI Bubble Debate - The existence of a bubble in AI investments is complex; some level of speculation can drive technological advancement [6][8] - Key risks include the inability to convert capital expenditure into profit, excessive leverage, and tightening monetary policy [8] - Investors should focus on sectors directly benefiting from AI advancements and maintain a diversified approach to mitigate risks [8] Fragment 3: Macro Environment for 2026 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "15th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for a balanced supply-demand dynamic and a focus on technology and industry [9] - The U.S. midterm elections may influence domestic policies, with a potential focus on growth and price stability [11] Fragment 4: Global Manufacturing Cycle - A potential upturn in the global manufacturing cycle is anticipated in 2026, following disruptions caused by tariffs [15] - The supportive environment for this cycle includes fiscal expansion and monetary policy coordination among major economies [15] Fragment 5: Capital Reallocation - The trend of "capital relocation" is significant, with a notable decrease in the ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization, indicating ongoing reallocation needs [18] - The current environment favors stable investment products like "fixed income+" and FOFs, which are gaining traction among cautious investors [20]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the 4000-point mark for the first time in 10 years, indicating significant changes in the A-share market as it approaches the end of 2025 and the commencement of the next five-year plan in China [1] Group 1: Major Changes in the Market - Change One: Slow Bull Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2748 points on September 24, 2022, to surpass 4000 points on October 28, 2023, taking 400 days with an annualized volatility of 15.28%. In comparison, previous surges in 2007 and 2015 took only 89 and 127 days, respectively, with higher volatilities of 27.94% and 23.01% [1] - Change Two: Shift in A-share Pricing Power - By Q3 2024, the scale of passive equity funds, particularly stock ETFs, has surpassed that of actively managed equity funds for the first time, with the current ETF market reaching 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant shift in pricing power within the A-share market [4] - Change Three: Leading Themes in the Current Market - The current bull market is primarily driven by sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment, reflecting a broader trend towards technological self-sufficiency and the global AI wave, alongside the narrative of revaluation of Chinese assets [5] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Significant Capital Inflows - Since September 24, 2022, the ETF market has seen a net inflow of 1.17 trillion yuan, with major inflows directed towards core A-share assets, technology innovation, and cyclical sectors [11][12] - Performance of Key ETFs - The Double Innovation Leader ETF tracking the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index has risen by 57.63% this year, while the Tianhong Growth ETF tracking the ChiNext Index has increased by 45.78% [8] - Year-End Capital Rotation - Following six months of continuous growth, A-shares have seen a rotation of capital, with significant inflows into ETFs tracking sectors like technology, securities, and consumer goods, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [14][18]

Group 1 - The "2025 Bay Area Wealth Conference" will take place on November 20, 2025, during the 19th Shenzhen International Financial Expo, focusing on "New Trends in Wealth Management: Investing Globally from the Bay Area" [1] - The event will gather top financial institutions and high-net-worth participants from the Greater Bay Area, discussing current wealth management and global allocation strategies [1][2] - The Greater Bay Area has an economic total of 14.79 trillion yuan, making it the largest bay area globally, with Hong Kong's asset and wealth management scale exceeding 35 trillion HKD and Shenzhen's wealth management total surpassing 31 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The morning forum will feature discussions on global wealth management, asset revaluation in China, alternative investments for high-net-worth individuals, and trends in the Hong Kong ETF market, with insights from major financial institutions [2] - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Research Institute will release the "2025 Cross-Border Wealth Management Report," revealing trends in cross-border wealth management over the past year [2] - The afternoon session will delve into global asset allocation, exploring new paradigms and practical topics such as Hong Kong stock investments and cross-border wealth management [2][3] Group 3 - The conference will analyze the changing investment behaviors of high-net-worth clients, focusing on the shift from preservation to "inheritance + impact investing" [3] - The collaboration between 21st Century Business Herald and Shenzhen International Financial Expo aims to create a platform for wealth management and asset management institutions to showcase their brands and foster cooperation [3] - Registration is open for representatives from financial institutions, high-net-worth individuals, and industry researchers interested in wealth management and asset allocation [3]

Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Huatai Securities held an investment summit discussing macroeconomic trends and market opportunities, emphasizing a positive outlook on the revaluation of Chinese assets and traditional industries [1] - The China Securities Index Company announced the launch of two new indices focused on innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, expanding investment options in these sectors [2] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - The National Healthcare Security Administration is set to release the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory in December, aiming to support the development of innovative pharmaceuticals [3] - Chongqing's government introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, targeting the approval of 1 to 3 new drugs annually by 2027 [13] Group 3: Digital Competitiveness - Hong Kong ranked fourth globally in the 2025 World Digital Competitiveness Ranking, showing strong performance in technology and knowledge sectors [4] Group 4: Financial Market Trends - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced reforms for the ChiNext board to better serve emerging industries and innovative enterprises [5][6] - The active equity fund manager group has seen significant growth, with over 100 managers now managing funds exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a robust market for active management [8] - The public fund market is experiencing a resurgence, with two funds achieving "daylight" status by reaching their maximum fundraising limits in a single day [7] Group 5: Regulatory Changes - The National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice to adjust the regulatory levels for certain administrative licenses and reporting matters, streamlining processes for financial institutions [14]

Group 1 - The investment summit held by Huatai Securities emphasized a strong outlook for the revaluation of Chinese assets, particularly favoring the "old economy" sectors [2] - The China Securities Index Company announced the launch of two new indices focused on innovative drugs and medical devices, enhancing investment options in these sectors [3] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is set to release the first version of the commercial insurance innovative drug directory, aiming to support the development of innovative pharmaceuticals [3] Group 2 - Hong Kong ranked fourth globally in the 2025 World Digital Competitiveness Ranking, showing significant improvements in technology and knowledge factors [4][5] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the initiation of reforms for the ChiNext board to better serve the "14th Five-Year Plan" for technological innovation [4] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown strong performance, leading to a significant increase in the number of active equity fund managers, surpassing 100 for the first time [10] - The issuance of new funds has surged, with notable demand for equity funds, as evidenced by the rapid fundraising of two "daylight funds" [8][9] Group 4 - Berkshire Hathaway reported a 34% year-on-year increase in operating profit for Q3, driven by a substantial rise in insurance underwriting profits [11] - The alternative investment management sector is increasingly recognizing the importance of the Chinese market, highlighting its vast scale and innovative potential [13] Group 5 - The MSCI announced adjustments to its important indices, with changes set to take effect on November 24, 2025 [14] - The financial regulatory authority has delegated certain administrative licensing and reporting matters to local financial regulatory branches to enhance efficiency [16] Group 6 - A notable shift in private equity fund allocations was observed, with significant adjustments in holdings among well-known private equity firms following the release of Q3 financial reports [21][22] - The market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" phase, with a focus on sectors like AI, robotics, and high-end manufacturing, despite volatility in the broader market [22]

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 11月5日至6日，华泰证券2026年度投资峰会在北京举行。华泰证券机构业务委员会主席梁红在致辞中表 示，中国资产重估有望进一步深化，投资者可能会逐步关注与经济基本面改善密切相关的能源、消费等 顺周期板块，尤其是这些"老经济"板块中的优质龙头企业。 11月7日，国债期货各主力合约收跌。截至收盘，30年期国债期货（TL2512）报收115.950元，下跌 0.180元，跌幅0.16%；10年期国债期货（T2512）报收108.445元，下跌0.100元，跌幅0.09%；5年期国 债期货（TF2512）报收105.910元，下跌0.050元，跌幅0.05%；2年期国债期货（TS2512）报收102.470 元，下跌0.024元，跌幅0.02%。 11月7日，ETF市场涨跌不一。其中，化工ETF、化工50ETF、化工龙头ETF均涨逾3%；新材料ETF基 金、新材料ETF指数基金、新材料50ETF等产品均涨逾2%。 【机构观点】 瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪近日发表中国股票策略报告称，三季度国际投资者进一步增 持中国股票。 华金证券发布研报称，2025年三季度陆股通持仓继续上升， ...

Core Insights - The "Intelligent China: Setting Sail for the Future" Global Investment Forum hosted by GF Securities in Hong Kong on November 6-7, 2023, attracted over a thousand participants, including top leaders from domestic listed companies and renowned global investment institutions [1][3][4] - The forum focused on key sectors such as AI, robotics, new energy, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, featuring around 80 well-known listed companies and approximately 30 industry leaders engaging in deep discussions with investors [3][4] - GF Securities is enhancing its international business efforts, positioning itself to compete with top global investment banks, driven by the need for internationalization and transformation of sell-side research [5][6] Group 1: Forum Highlights - The forum showcased insights from prominent figures such as Zheng Hongmeng (Industrial Fulian), Zhou Qunfei (Lens Technology), and Zhang Xinga (Yuanjie Technology), discussing trends in AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][4] - The event attracted significant interest from international investors, including sovereign funds and long-term funds, indicating a strong global interest in high-quality Chinese companies [4][6] Group 2: GF Securities' Strategy - GF Securities is committed to an international development strategy, using Hong Kong as a key hub to deepen its operations and enhance its brand influence in overseas markets [6][7] - The company aims to integrate domestic and international research efforts, providing seamless services to clients and leveraging its strong research capabilities to support cross-border business [7][10] Group 3: Research and Development - As of June 2025, GF Securities' stock research covers 28 industries and 997 A-share listed companies in China, along with 207 overseas listed companies, emphasizing its commitment to digital transformation in research [8][9] - The company is developing an English research product system to enhance its global research brand influence and is focusing on building overseas research teams in key sectors like TMT, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [9][10]