中美关税博弈

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凯旺科技:将开拓新市场新业务、加大研发投入等多方面应对机遇与挑战
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-05-22 09:09
豫地英才聚商都,智绘中原新胜景! 5月22日下午,凯旺科技(301182.SZ)参加主题为"真诚沟通 传递价值"——河南辖区上市公司2025年 投资者网上集体接待日。 交流会中,问及未来如何应对机遇与挑战,凯旺科技董事会秘书兼职财务总监邵振康表示,公司所处的 行业挑战,主要来源于目前中美脱钩断链,中美关税博弈带来的市场不确定性,目前整体行业国内需求 疲弱,行业内卷,竞争压力增加,行业整理利润率下滑,同时人力成本、管理成本日益增加。 3、紧抓产品质量,优化生产管理再上新台阶 ; 4、人力资源发展计划 ; 5、夯实优势基础,优化全流程制造管理能力 。(全景网) 更多河南辖区上市公司2025年投资者网上集体接待日活动,请点击:https://rs.p5w.net/html/146808.shtml 未来公司会积极在如下方面合理应对: 1、稳定核心资源,开拓新市场新业务。公司将牢牢抓住安防市 场发展的契机,在现有业务领域的基础上,积极开拓新的应用领域,拓展公司的发展空间,坚持客户需 求为中心,加强市场拓展能力建设。公司持续加强和巩固现有客户合作,积极拓展国内与国际客户,深 化客户需求,延展业务链条。(1)深耕现有市场 ...
全球金融论坛|清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩:制度性开放与内需提振须“双轮驱动”
Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao· 2025-05-18 05:56
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of maintaining foreign investment confidence and stimulating domestic demand amid ongoing US-China tariff disputes and rising global trade barriers [1] - China is leveraging institutional openness to counter external uncertainties and is implementing a "dual circulation" strategy to address insufficient domestic demand, thereby injecting new momentum into high-quality economic development [1][3] Group 2 - Despite increased pressure on foreign trade enterprises due to US-China tariff frictions, China's market attractiveness remains strong, supported by low corporate valuations, a robust economic foundation, and a large pool of high-quality talent [2] - The government is expected to provide policy support for foreign trade enterprises, such as tax reductions and loan interest cuts, while companies must enhance their resilience through technological innovation and supply chain cost reduction [2] - Companies are encouraged to diversify their markets and reduce reliance on a single market by expanding globally, as trade friction is likely to become a norm [2] Group 3 - The "dual circulation" strategy is seen as forward-looking, particularly in promoting domestic circulation to address current uncertainties, although challenges such as declining investment and consumer willingness persist [3] - Recommendations include building a unified national market to facilitate the flow of resources, dynamically assessing the effectiveness of consumption promotion policies, and continuing support for the private economy [3] - The rapid passage of the "Private Economy Promotion Law" reflects the central government's commitment to boosting confidence among private entrepreneurs, which is crucial for the development of the domestic circulation system [3]
2025五道口金融论坛 | 专访田轩:“科创债”发行主体还可进一步拓宽至民营企业
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-05-17 15:11
Group 1: Financial Policies and Market Impact - The recent package of financial policies introduced by three major financial regulatory bodies is expected to positively impact the consumption market [1][4] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has launched a "Technology Board" in the bond market to address the financing difficulties faced by technology companies, which is seen as a significant step to enhance financing channels and reduce costs [2][3] - The PBOC's structural monetary policy tools, such as the service consumption and pension re-loan, aim to support the transformation and upgrading of consumption, particularly in service-oriented sectors [5] Group 2: Debt and Investment Strategies - The PBOC's recent report indicates that China's government debt expansion is sustainable due to substantial state-owned assets, which can support increased borrowing [6][7] - The government is encouraged to increase leverage to stimulate investment demand amid low enthusiasm for private investment [7] - The introduction of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds is expected to lower financing costs for equity investment institutions and support longer-term bond issuance [3] Group 3: Trade and Economic Resilience - The ongoing US-China tariff negotiations have led to significant changes in bilateral tariff levels, which are anticipated to benefit both countries' producers and consumers [8] - There is cautious optimism regarding the potential for a favorable outcome in the trade talks, although a return to pre-existing free trade conditions is unlikely [9] - Domestic market resilience is emphasized, with a focus on enhancing technology innovation, expanding domestic demand, and improving social security [10]
内部出政策,外部达共识,商务部全力助力外贸企业纾困
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-05-16 10:32
Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a surge in export orders from Chinese companies, indicating a potential recovery in foreign trade amidst ongoing trade tensions [2][6]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The current U.S. tariff rate is the base rate plus 30%, which, while still high, is an improvement from previous levels, prompting U.S. clients to expedite shipping of previously delayed goods [2]. - Following the tariff reduction, the average booking volume for container shipments from China to the U.S. increased by 277%, from 5,709 to 21,530 standard containers within a week [6]. - China's foreign trade showed resilience, with a total import and export value of 14.14 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, supported by a 7.5% increase in exports [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that Chinese companies will accelerate exports to mitigate uncertainties in future trade relations, with industrial production and foreign trade expected to maintain certain resilience in the second quarter [3]. - The first quarter of the year saw a 5.8% year-on-year increase in exports, with significant growth in exports to emerging markets and ASEAN countries [7]. - Future policy support is anticipated, including potential interest rate cuts and liquidity measures to bolster economic performance amid ongoing trade negotiations [9]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government remains open to dialogue to resolve trade concerns, emphasizing the importance of communication in addressing economic issues [2]. - The U.S. continues to impose restrictions, such as export controls on Huawei products, which China views as unilateral and detrimental to global supply chains [8]. - The Chinese government is expected to take firm measures to protect its enterprises' rights and interests in response to U.S. trade policies [8].
中美关税博弈的经济逻辑与中国关键抓手!中邮证券黄付生专业解读
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 05:49
Core Viewpoint - The recent joint statement from the China-US Geneva economic talks on May 12 is seen as a potential turning point in easing tensions between the two nations, with significant tariff reductions announced [1][2]. Economic Rebalancing - The joint statement indicates a notable decrease in tariffs, with China reducing tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% within the first 90 days, while the US will lower tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% [2][3]. - A 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days, allowing for negotiations before July [3]. US Economic Context - The US has historically maintained high tariffs, averaging around 30%, which has been a part of its economic development strategy [3]. - The current economic situation suggests that the US cannot revert to pre-April 2 conditions, with markets anticipating fiscal easing from China and tax cuts from the US [3]. US Fiscal Pressure - As of March 2025, the US national debt is projected to reach approximately $36.6 trillion, with a significant portion of low-interest bonds maturing between 2025 and 2027, leading to increased interest payments [4]. - The US government is using tariff increases as a means to alleviate fiscal pressure, with potential tariff revenues significantly exceeding current levels [4][5]. Chinese Economic Strategy - China is focusing on boosting domestic consumption, particularly in the service sector, to counteract economic pressures [9]. - The first quarter of 2023 saw a GDP growth rate of 5.4%, driven by strong exports and a gradual recovery in consumption [9]. Key Economic Drivers for 2025 - The "Two New" and "Two Heavy" initiatives are identified as critical for China's economic development in 2025, focusing on equipment upgrades and major strategic projects [10][11]. - The expected policy support for these initiatives could reach around 3 trillion yuan, with investment multipliers anticipated to be higher than in 2024 [11]. Stimulus Measures - Six potential measures to stimulate the economy include expanding fertility subsidies, injecting capital into state-owned banks, increasing consumer subsidies, advancing supply-side reforms, issuing special government bonds, and raising rural pension levels [12][13][14][15][16]. Market Outlook - The equity market is expected to enter a "long-cycle, structural bull market," with monetary policy supporting the stock market while fiscal measures are necessary for economic recovery [16]. - The bond market may face risks in the second half of the year, with a potential upward trend in yields as economic conditions stabilize [16].
美国想要的,中方终于给了?两个关键点已打通,该探特朗普老底了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 07:06
可以说,我国选择瑞士中立国,而不是美国主场,和美国会谈,就是定调中美经贸谈判要在平等的基础上,以对等方式 会谈,中方定调不会有任何改变。随后,我外交部发言人特别强调一句,"此次会谈是应美方请求举行,中方坚决反对美 国滥用关税这一立场没有任何改变。"这说明美国才是中美关税大战中,真正坐不住的一方。以特朗普为首的美国政府为 什么坐不住呢?四个字:局势不利。中美关税博弈的结果,就是越来越多国家站在我国一边,相反美国有点众叛亲离的 味道。 对于中美间谈判全球渴望已久,更包括美国在内。国际货币基金组织、经合组织和世界银行的全球经济学家都预测,特 朗普的贸易战将对全球经济造成灾难性影响,预计美国将成为受打击最严重的经济体之一。许多美国经济学家和大型银 行预测,美国经济今年可能陷入衰退。当然,一次谈判肯定解决不了中美之间长久以来的问题。美国财长贝森特似乎也 很清楚,出发前他在接受福克斯新闻采访时表示,这次谈判将"与缓和局势有关,而不是与重大贸易协议有关"。 据人民日报报道,外交部发言人林剑表示,美方近期不断表示希望同中方进行谈判。这次的会谈是应美方请求举行的。 中方坚决反对美国滥施关税,这一立场没有任何变化。同时,我们也多 ...
国新会点评:巩固市场维稳向好,关注IM
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 06:11
2025 年 5 月 7 日国新会点评:巩固市场维稳向好,关注 IM 2025 年 5 月 7 日,国新办举行新闻发布会,中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管 理总局局长李云泽、中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清出席,介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市 场稳预期"有关情况。本次出台的一揽子金融政策聚焦五个关键方向,分别是稳定市场、稳定 预期、扩大内需、促进科技创新以及扶持企业。为实现这些目标,货币政策、金融监管政策和 资本市场政策相互配合、协同发力,在保障稳定的同时推动发展,为实体经济和资本市场提供 了全方位的有力支持。 "5.7 一揽子政策" 作为 "9.24 政策组合" 的深化推进,是贯彻全国两会和 4.25 中央政治 局会议决策部署的关键行动。在当前国际贸易摩擦升级、国内需求不足的形势下,这一系列政 策将有效提升市场预期、激发市场主体活力、维护金融体系稳定,并增强金融服务实体经济的 质效。该政策组合的出台,充分彰显了政府加强宏观调控、促进政策协同发力、稳定市场预期 的坚定决心,为实现全年经济发展目标提供了有力支撑。 2025-05-09 风险提示及免责声明请详见正文 2025-05-09 长江期货 | 鄂证监期 ...
中方考虑接受谈判请求,不到24小时,美国取消小额包裹关税豁免
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-05 16:09
Core Viewpoint - The recent back-and-forth between China and the U.S. regarding tariffs highlights a complex negotiation strategy, where the U.S. appears to extend an olive branch while simultaneously implementing punitive measures, creating confusion about the sincerity of their negotiation intentions [1][3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced the cancellation of the tax exemption policy for cross-border packages valued under $800, affecting a significant volume of Chinese goods entering the U.S. daily [5][7]. - This policy change is expected to impact numerous Chinese e-commerce platforms, such as TEMU and SHEIN, which handle millions of packages daily, leading to increased costs for consumers and businesses alike [12][14]. Group 2: Implications for E-commerce - The cancellation of the $800 exemption is particularly targeted at the fast-moving consumer goods sector, which has seen a 34% increase in exports from China to the U.S. in 2023, with 70% of these goods valued under $800 [25][27]. - The new policy could raise the end prices of goods by 20-30%, significantly affecting the business models of platforms like SHEIN, which relies heavily on low-cost, high-volume sales [14][16]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - The timing of the U.S. policy change, occurring shortly after China's diplomatic overtures, suggests a calculated strategy to test China's response while maintaining a façade of negotiation [16][19]. - China's response has been measured, focusing on maintaining dialogue without committing to specific timelines, indicating a strategic approach to avoid escalating tensions [19][21]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The ongoing tariff battle reflects a shift in focus from traditional goods to the burgeoning cross-border e-commerce sector, indicating a new battleground in U.S.-China trade relations [23][29]. - The complexities of the current trade dynamics suggest that both nations are navigating a delicate balance of cooperation and competition, with potential implications for global trade patterns [31][33].
5月,长端利率或挑战前低
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-05 08:21
Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced a rapid bull run in early April, followed by a period of stabilization, with the 10-year treasury yield fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.67% during this consolidation phase [1][11][12] - In May, the funding environment is expected to remain supportive for the bond market, with a historical trend showing that funding rates typically ease further in May compared to April, aided by a reduction in tax payment pressures [2][20][28] - The report highlights three key factors influencing the bond market in May: tariffs, economic fundamentals, and policy responses, with a focus on the ongoing US-China tariff negotiations and their potential impact on market sentiment [3][35][52] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank's stance has softened since April, leading to a return of funding rates to a "reasonable state," which is expected to support the bond market [2][28][31] - It is projected that government bond supply will significantly increase in May, with net issuance expected to reach 1.53 trillion yuan, nearly doubling from April, which may create short-term fluctuations in funding costs [2][31][32] - The report outlines three scenarios for investment strategies in May, emphasizing the importance of selecting short-term bonds as the most favorable option, while also considering longer-duration positions to capitalize on potential rate cuts [5][54][56]
丁辛醇:震荡下行 弱势整理
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-04-29 01:59
Core Viewpoint - The market for butanol and isobutanol has experienced significant price declines since January 2024, with butanol prices dropping over 40% and isobutanol prices down approximately 4% year-to-date, indicating ongoing supply-demand challenges in the second quarter [1][2][3]. Group 1: Butanol Market Analysis - Since January 2024, the price of industrial-grade butanol in Shandong has decreased to 6350-6400 RMB per ton, a decline of 9.5% from the beginning of the year [1]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw butanol prices fall from 7025 RMB in early January to around 6600 RMB by the end of March, reflecting a cumulative decline of over 6% [2]. - The butanol market is expected to continue its weak consolidation in the second quarter, with prices projected to fluctuate between 6000-6700 RMB, driven by high operating rates and slow inventory digestion [4]. Group 2: Isobutanol Market Analysis - The isobutanol market also faced downward pressure, with prices fluctuating significantly due to factors such as downstream stocking rhythms and factory inventory strategies [3]. - In early April, isobutanol prices fell below the first quarter's low, indicating a cautious market sentiment and intensified supply-demand negotiations [3]. - The second quarter may see isobutanol prices initially decline before potentially recovering, with projected prices in the range of 7300-7800 RMB, influenced by seasonal demand and supply adjustments [4]. Group 3: Impact of Tariff Wars - The ongoing US-China tariff conflict has had a limited direct impact on the butanol and isobutanol markets due to the relatively small volume of trade between the two countries [5]. - However, the tariff situation has adversely affected exports of certain PVC products, such as gloves, which could indirectly suppress demand for isobutanol, as these products are significant in the downstream consumption of plasticizers [6]. - The export volume of PVC gloves to the US reached 215,300 tons, accounting for over 47% of total exports, which may impact domestic consumption of dioctyl terephthalate (DOTP) and subsequently affect isobutanol demand [6].