Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current Sino-US tariff policy expectations continue to cause disturbances, and the Sino-US talks bring about periodic emotional fluctuations. However, the characteristics of the domestic downstream off-season are gradually emerging, with insufficient new orders from gauze factories. The driving force for cotton price rebound is weak, and the cotton price may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the pressure around the previous high of 13,560 and the adjustment of the US foreign tariff policy [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 12,800 - 13,700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.065 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0734 [3] - For inventory management when inventory is high and there are concerns about cotton price decline, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell call options (CF509C13800) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at an entry range of 12,600 - 12,800 with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (CF509P12800) at 150 - 200 with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and lock in the spot cotton buying price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Situation Analysis Bullish Factors - In the 24/25 season, the cotton in northern Xinjiang has a high impurity content, high - quality resources are scarce, and the remaining cotton ownership is mostly concentrated in large ginning enterprises and traders, resulting in a strong cotton basis [5] - Cotton inventory has decreased rapidly. As of the end of May, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 4.3998 million tons [5] Bearish Factors - The processing cost of new cotton in northern Xinjiang in the 24/25 season is mostly around 15,000 yuan/ton, and there is still some new cotton that has not been hedged [7] - The downstream is in the traditional off - season, with slow sales, a decline in the operating rate of gauze factories, general enthusiasm for raw material procurement, strong wait - and - see sentiment, and a slight increase in finished product inventory [7] Price Data Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,490, up 5 (0.04%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,475, unchanged (0%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,520, up 25 (0.19%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,820, down 75 (-0.38%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,725, down 15 (-0.08%) [6][8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,223, up 98; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 15, up 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was - 45, down 25; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was 30, up 20; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,230, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 891, up 25; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 677, unchanged [8] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was at 14,743, up 123 (0.84%); CCI 2227B was at 12,886, up 106 (0.83%); CCI 2129B was at 15,060, up 132 (0.88%); FCI Index S was at 13,946, up 31 (0.22%); FCI Index M was at 13,761, up 32 (0.23%); FCI Index L was at 13,530, up 31 (0.23%) [9]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariffs on China continues as the U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ruled that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are illegal, but the government has appealed this decision, leading to further complications in U.S.-China trade relations [2][3]. Tariff Details - The CIT identified four specific tariffs as illegal, including a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, a 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to fentanyl smuggling issues, a 10% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese products, and small tariffs on goods valued under $800 [4][3]. - Since February, the Trump administration has significantly increased tariffs, reaching as high as 145% on certain Chinese imports by April [5][6]. Legal Proceedings - Following the CIT's ruling on May 28, the Trump administration sought a stay of execution from the Federal Circuit Court, which allowed the tariffs to remain in effect while further materials are submitted by both parties [3][6]. - The CIT's decision was initiated by a lawsuit from the Freedom and Justice Center, representing five small U.S. businesses affected by the tariffs, marking the first legal challenge against Trump's tariff policies [8]. Market Impact - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to persist, affecting cross-border e-commerce sellers who are advised to prepare for ongoing volatility [7]. - Despite the challenges, many e-commerce sellers remain optimistic, believing that the U.S. will struggle to find alternatives to the Chinese supply chain and that they can adjust prices if tariffs increase [7][8].

Report Summary 1. Report Type - Index Daily Review [1] 2. Date - May 27, 2025 [2] 3. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Index Futures), contact: 021 - 60635735, niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macroeconomics and Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macroeconomics, Treasury Bonds, and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F3051589 [3] 4. Market Review and Outlook 4.1 Market Review - On May 26, the Wind All - A Index rose with shrinking volume. It opened higher, then oscillated downward, rebounded in the afternoon, and closed up 0.14%, with over 70% of stocks rising. Among index spot, CSI 300 and SSE 50 opened slightly higher, then oscillated downward, and closed down 0.57% and 0.46% respectively. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 also opened slightly higher, oscillated downward, and then rebounded, closing up 0.29% and 0.65% respectively, indicating better performance of small - and medium - cap stocks. In index futures, futures generally outperformed spot. The main contracts of IF and IH closed down 0.39% and 0.32% respectively, while the main contracts of IC and IM closed up 0.59% and 0.90% respectively (based on the previous trading day's closing price). In terms of sectors, Media, Computer, and Environmental Protection led the gains, rising 2.14%, 1.39%, and 1.22% respectively. Comprehensive, Pharmaceutical Biology, and Automobile led the losses, with declines of - 0.86%, - 1.08%, and - 1.78% respectively [6] 4.2 Market Outlook - Overseas, Trump said on the 23rd that he would impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1st, but on the 25th, he extended the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9th at the EU's request. The US stock market opened lower and then rebounded. Domestically, the Q1 macro data showed some resilience, and with the easing of Sino - US relations, the Q2 outlook has also improved. However, the improvement rhythm of domestic demand and the real estate recovery situation still need to be observed. Overall, with the suspension of Sino - US tariff policies and domestic policy support, the capital market is expected to rise steadily. But affected by overseas markets and the pressure from the upper trading - intensive area, it is recommended that previous long positions take profit at an appropriate time and maintain a medium - low position. In terms of market style, the long - term technology narrative logic remains, and with the approval of an additional 60 billion yuan on May 7th to support the long - term entry of insurance funds into the market, high - growth technology stocks and dividend - paying sectors may be more dominant. Strategically, the long - term performance of IH and IM is favored [7][8] 5. Data Overview - There are multiple charts showing domestic major index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of index spot, trading volume and open interest of index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - delivery spread trend, statistics of major ETF fund shares, and statistics of major ETF trading volume, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14] 6. Industry News - On the 23rd, Trump proposed to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting from June 1st, stating that the EU was established to take advantage of the US in trade and that the US - EU negotiation had made no progress. On the 25th, he extended the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9th at the EU's request and said the conversation was "very pleasant" [26]

资金面小幅收敛，债市情绪偏弱 上周（5.12-5.18），中美关税政策的调整对全球资本市场带来正面影响，尤其是权益类市场重获资金关注，也造成了债市短期的压力，资金面出现了小幅收 敛，债市情绪偏弱。 公开数据统计，上周央行公开市场开展4860亿7天逆回购操作，到期8361亿，全周净回笼3501亿元，全周DR007围绕于1.50%波动，资金价格后半周有所抬 升。 每经记者｜任飞 每经编辑｜叶峰 上周，国债期货震荡走弱，资金面又一次出现收敛。债市情绪偏弱背景下，基金投资收益率并不理想，不过，市场中并不缺少做多的理由。总体来看，目前 影响债市的关键是不确定性因素对短期市场情绪的扰动，不过，有分析指出，利多事件的冲击对于债市的影响在今年来看是一个非常迅速的过程，债券资产 依然在年内有配置的必要和机会。 资金面是市场最为关注的因素，就目前市场的预期来看，有分析指出，预计税期资金面均衡略转紧，市场情绪整体偏弱。 根据上海东证期货的研报分析，由于中美贸易谈判进展超预期，资金面边际收敛，国债期货震荡调整，5年期到7年期品种调整幅度相对较大。 从基金的表现来看，中长期纯债基金平均业绩表现不及短债基金。Wind统计显示，短债基金上 ...

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that under the context of the US-China competition, the probability of continued tightening in monetary policy is low, suggesting significant downward elasticity for short-term interest rates and structural opportunities in bonds with maturities of 7 years or less [2] - The market's perception shows that the strategy of "duration hugging" has led to rapid fluctuations in long-term bond yields, which are now stabilizing [2] - Since mid-March, there has been a notable decline in credit spreads for various short-term bonds, indicating a shift in institutional buying behavior towards short-term credit bonds for yield opportunities [2][3] Group 2: A-Share Market Strategy - The core viewpoint suggests that after the release of the US-China Geneva communiqué, the market continues to experience upward momentum, primarily characterized by strong fluctuations [4] - The market has surpassed the levels seen before the comprehensive tariff war on April 3, indicating pressure from both dense trading zones above and profit-taking from short-term investors [4] - The report anticipates that the market will undergo a period of consolidation to alleviate the pressure from dense trading zones and short-term profit-taking [4][5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated potential changes to tariffs on Chinese goods, responding to pressure from 352 American companies facing supply chain disruptions and rising costs [1][3][5] - The proposed adjustments are likely to focus on non-strategic consumer goods and intermediate products, aiming to alleviate inflation and reduce production costs for U.S. businesses [5][9][11] - Despite the Treasury's intentions, significant political hurdles remain, including opposition from hawkish lawmakers and the U.S. Trade Representative, who views tariffs as a critical leverage point [7][9][19] Group 2 - The ongoing inflation in the U.S., which has exceeded 5% for 18 consecutive months, and supply chain issues are driving the need for tariff adjustments [3][11][15] - The U.S. manufacturing sector has seen average cost increases of 12%, with household appliance prices rising by 23%, impacting low-income families significantly [11][13] - China's response includes a willingness to engage in dialogue, with high-level officials indicating that any negotiations must respect China's core interests [9][15][19] Group 3 - The potential tariff changes reflect a broader shift in U.S.-China relations, moving from confrontation to tentative engagement, driven by economic pressures on both sides [15][19] - The complexity of political dynamics in the U.S. suggests that any significant tariff relief will require extensive negotiations and may not occur swiftly [19] - The global economic landscape is also affected, with the WTO warning that continued trade tensions could lower global growth by 0.8% by 2025 [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - Antong Holdings (600179) is actively promoting its restructuring efforts, but has not provided a specific completion timeline. The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first quarter, nearly quadrupling compared to the previous year, and stated that recent tariff agreements between China and the U.S. do not have a direct impact on its daily operations. Group 1: Company Performance - As of May 16, 2025, Antong Holdings closed at 3.01 yuan, up 1.69% from the previous week [1] - The company's total market capitalization is 12.737 billion yuan, ranking 22nd out of 35 in the shipping and port sector, and 1226th out of 5147 in the A-share market [1] Group 2: Restructuring Efforts - The company is actively advancing its restructuring work but has not disclosed a specific timeline for completion [4] - During investor inquiries, the company reiterated that all information regarding restructuring will be disclosed through designated media [2][3][4] Group 3: Impact of Tariff Changes - The recent tariff agreements between China and the U.S. are not expected to have a direct impact on the company's daily operations, as its main business focuses on domestic container logistics services [2][4] - The company will continue to monitor policy changes and market trends related to tariffs [2]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：5月14日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2510 | 30 ...

热点报告——液化石油气 中美关税阶段性缓和，内外盘定价逻辑分化 | | [Table液_R化an石k]油气：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 14 | 日 [Table_Analyser] | | 走势评级： 报告日期： | | | | | | | [Table_Summary] ★中美关税缓和超预期，FEI/CP 价差显著收窄 关税缓和对国际纸货价格产生了明显的影响，中国进口美国货 可能性的提升支撑 6 月 FEI 纸货价格大幅上涨，同时此前 CP 价 格来自中国寻求美国货替代来源的支撑预期部分消退下有所回 落，FEI-CP 价差走强，但并未走强至对等关税加征前水平，6 月合约两者价差走强至-20 美元/吨后上行乏力。 能 源 结合当前的 LPG 商品基本面以及宏观环境仍存在不确定性的整 体情景，我们预计短期 FEI 向上和 CP 向下的进一步驱动相对有 限，CP 预计仍将较 FEI 表现偏强。 与 碳 ★ C4 需求疲弱叠加仓单压制下，关税缓和对内盘价格影响有限 中 和 相对于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of US-China tariff policies on the photovoltaic (PV) industry, the future development of the solar market, and the technological advancements in solar cells, highlighting the optimistic outlook for global solar installations by 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of US-China Tariff Policies - The easing of US-China tariff policies is expected to provide a more stable overseas trade environment for solar and energy storage products [3]. - Companies like JinkoSolar and Trina Solar have sufficient inventory to mitigate the impact of potential tariffs, with ongoing projects in regions like the Middle East enhancing their global supply capabilities [3][4]. - The solar equipment manufacturer, Aotai, is proactively expanding its manufacturing base in Malaysia to address future export requirements amid tariff uncertainties [5]. Group 2: Future Market Trends - JinkoSolar forecasts a 10% year-on-year growth in global solar installation demand by 2025, driven by emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific [6]. - The solar industry is expected to transition from losses to breakeven and eventually profitability, as the supply-side reforms take effect and inefficient capacities are eliminated [6][7]. - Despite a current oversupply situation, companies are focusing on balancing shipment volumes with profit margins, prioritizing high-price market orders [7]. Group 3: Technological Developments - The industry is shifting towards TOPCon technology as the mainstream solar cell technology, with companies like JinkoSolar and Trina Solar leading in this area [8]. - The financing environment for solar companies remains stable, with banks willing to support leading firms in the industry, particularly those with strong technological advancements and market shares [9].