Core Viewpoint - The liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures market experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 4048.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.33% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - New Lake Futures predicts that LPG2511 is likely to stabilize [2] - According to Saudi Arabia's October CP, propane is priced at $495 per ton, down $25 from the previous month, while butane is at $475 per ton, down $15 [2] - The market sentiment is generally pessimistic, but considering freight and discount rates, the import costs for propane and butane in East China are 4300 yuan/ton and 4230 yuan/ton respectively, which may improve the demand for PDH facilities [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The expiration of the China-US tariff policy at the end of October is anticipated to influence negotiations, likely maintaining the current tariff structure [2] - A potential new fee on Chinese-operated vessels announced by the USTR, set to take effect on October 14, 2025, could impact about 12% of VLGC vessels, leading to increased shipping costs from the US to the Far East, thereby suppressing import demand in China [2] - Post-holiday, there is an expectation of weak market fluctuations until refinery inventory is cleared, after which LPG2511 is expected to stabilize [2] Group 3: Short-term Predictions - Ruida Futures expects short-term LPG prices to trend upwards due to geopolitical conflicts and doubts about OPEC+'s actual production capacity, which may provide support for oil prices [3] - The significant drop in Saudi Arabia's October CP price aims to enhance competitiveness in long-term contracts amid a shift of buyers like India towards US sources [3] - Despite weak downstream chemical demand and high raw material costs, stable procurement from China, Japan, and South Korea, along with declining costs, is expected to support market operations [3]

Policy Insights - The "trade-in for new" policy for home appliances in China will be strengthened and expanded by 2025, with a total of 162 billion yuan allocated in the first half of the year to support its implementation, stimulating consumer activity, although demand elasticity varies by category and there is regional imbalance in subsidy consumption [1] - The US-China tariff policy shows a trend of "tightening first, then loosening," causing short-term disruptions to China's home appliance exports but also encouraging companies to accelerate global capacity layout and enhance supply chain adjustment capabilities [1] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, leading brands in the black appliance sector in China have further highlighted their brand and technological advantages, increasing market share, while the trend of industrial structure upgrading continues, with good domestic market performance but pressure on exports [1] - The national subsidy policy has significantly boosted the domestic demand market for white appliances, combined with ecological advantages and extreme weather stimuli, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and quality, although increased competition from export-to-domestic sales is squeezing the survival space of smaller brands [1] - The kitchen and bathroom sector continues to be constrained by ongoing adjustments in the real estate industry, but new policy subsidies focused on this sector have driven both volume and revenue growth for large kitchen and bathroom appliances, while small appliances see a decrease in volume but an increase in revenue [1] - The cleaning appliance industry maintains high growth rates, with leading domestic brands deepening overseas layouts expected to drive export business into a phase of scaling up [1] Financial Overview - In the first half of 2025, the overall credit risk in the home appliance industry is manageable, with rapid growth in total revenue and operational performance, and stable gross profit levels, although profitability varies across sub-sectors, with kitchen and bathroom appliances under continuous pressure, and cleaning appliances seeing revenue growth without profit increase, while black and white appliances show year-on-year profit improvement [2] - The overall operational efficiency of the home appliance industry has slightly declined, capital expenditure has contracted year-on-year, and there is significant room for optimization in debt maturity structure, although financial leverage remains stable [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the home appliance industry Core Insights - The home appliance industry in China is experiencing structural growth driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with a total of 162 billion yuan allocated in the first half of 2025 to stimulate consumer spending [5][7][10] - The impact of U.S.-China tariff policies has created short-term disruptions in exports, prompting companies to accelerate global capacity layout and enhance supply chain adaptability [5][12] - The overall credit risk in the home appliance industry remains controllable, with revenue growth and stable gross profit levels, although profitability varies across sub-sectors [5][35] Summary by Sections Key Points - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated consumer demand, with over 66 million consumers purchasing more than 109 million appliances, resulting in sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [8][10] - The black appliance sector shows strong performance from leading brands, while the white appliance sector benefits significantly from national subsidies [5][6] - The kitchen and bathroom appliance market is constrained by ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, but new subsidies are driving growth in this area [5][25] Major Focus Factors - The home appliance industry is a significant category of durable consumer goods, with a large scale and high degree of globalization [6] - The report analyzes the domestic and international policy environment, market performance of key segments (black appliances, white appliances, kitchen appliances, and cleaning appliances), and financial performance of 47 representative listed companies [6] Financial Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the home appliance industry saw a 9.74% increase in revenue to 770.69 billion yuan, with varying growth rates across sub-sectors [35] - The average operating profit margin decreased by 0.81 percentage points to 25.88%, with significant declines in kitchen appliance profitability [35][36] - The overall capital expenditure decreased by 13.58%, indicating a cautious investment approach in a mature industry [38] Conclusion - The home appliance industry is expected to maintain growth momentum in the domestic market, driven by policy support and product upgrades, despite challenges from international trade tensions and competitive pressures [5][10][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the price of soybean meal first rose and then fell. On the cost side, the USDA in August lowered the planting area of US soybeans. Although the yield per unit was raised, the output was still reduced. Meanwhile, the decrease in total demand was less than that in total supply, and the ending stocks were lowered, which was overall bullish for the market. The good rainfall in US soybean - growing areas supported a better pod - setting number this year. The net export sales of US soybeans were average, but China - US trade negotiations continued. With both bullish and bearish factors, US soybeans fluctuated and closed higher. In the domestic market, the recent sufficient arrival of soybeans led to a high operating rate of oil mills, resulting in a loose supply of soybean meal. The weak downstream replenishment also put pressure on the spot price. Both the soybeans and soybean meal of oil mills were in the inventory - building cycle, and the short - term inventory increased. [6] - Currently, the spot market of soybean meal has a loose supply - demand situation, while the futures market is dominated by China - US tariff negotiations. A large amount of imported soybeans will arrive in the third and fourth quarters, ensuring sufficient supply of soybean meal. However, due to the possible impact of China - US tariffs, there is an expectation of a supply - demand gap in the first quarter of next year. The expected reduction in US soybean output and strong crushing demand strengthen the expectation of rising import costs. As the new round of China - US negotiations did not mention the purchase of US soybeans, it is expected that soybean meal will be relatively strong in the short and medium term. In the long term, there is an expectation of an increase in the planting area of Brazilian soybeans, and the soybean procurement in the second quarter of next year is sufficient, so there is still pressure on soybean meal. [6] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of August 29th, the CBOT soybeans closed at 1053.00 cents per bushel, up 62.75 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 6.34%. The M2601 soybean meal closed at 3055 yuan per ton, up 19 points from the opening, with a monthly increase of 0.63%. [12] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost - side: US Soybean Balance Sheet - The planting area of US soybeans was lowered by 2.5 million to 80.9 million acres. The yield per unit was raised by 1.1 to 53.6 bushels per acre. The output was reduced by 43 million to 4.292 billion bushels. The total supply was lowered by 63 million to 4.642 billion bushels. The export was lowered by 40 million to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending stocks were lowered by 20 million to 290 million bushels. [13][14] 3.2.2 Cost - side: US Soybean - growing Area Weather - In the next 15 days, the overall rainfall in US soybean - growing areas will be average, and the temperature will be low. [13] 3.2.3 Cost - side: US Soybean Growth - As of the week of August 24th, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. The pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4%. As of the week of August 26th, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. [21] 3.2.4 Cost - side: US Soybean Export Sales - As of the week of August 21st, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were - 189,000 tons, and in the 2025/2026 season were 1.373 million tons. The cumulative sales this year were 50.8687 million tons, accounting for 99.67% of the August USDA estimated exports. [25] 3.2.5 Cost - side: Brazilian Soybean Export and Premium - ANEC estimated that the soybean export volume of Brazil in August would be about 8.88 million tons, an increase of about 900,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Most of Brazilian soybeans have been sold, reducing the sales pressure. However, due to the strong US soybean futures, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has fallen from a high level. [29] 3.2.6 Domestic: Imported Soybean Arrival - In July 2025, China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 598,000 tons compared with June and an increase of 1.813 million tons (18.4%) compared with July 2024. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans in China was 61.035 million tons, an increase of 2.7 million tons (4.63%) year - on - year. In the 34th week of 2025 (August 16th - August 22nd), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills was about 2.1775 million tons. [34] 3.2.7 Domestic: Soybean Crushing Volume - In August 2025, the soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 11.46 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons (25.01%) compared with the previous month and an increase of 1.3048 million tons (12.84%) compared with the same period last year. [37] 3.2.8 Domestic: Downstream Demand for Soybean Meal - In August, the trading volume of oil mills was 4.8503 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 206,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was 4.0054 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 313,500 tons. [39] 3.2.9 Domestic: Inventory of Soybeans and Soybean Meal in Oil Mills - In the 34th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major national oil mills increased to 6.8253 million tons, an increase of 21,300 tons (0.31%) from the previous week and a decrease of 394,000 tons (5.46%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory increased to 1.0533 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (3.80%) from the previous week and a decrease of 445,300 tons (29.71%) year - on - year. The unfulfilled contracts decreased. [42] 3.3 Spread Tracking No detailed spread - tracking content analysis is provided in the given text, only the spread items such as the basis of soybean meal in Jiangsu, 01 oil - meal ratio, 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, and 01 soybean - rapeseed meal spread are mentioned. [45][46][49][50]

Core Viewpoint - Hai Li De (002206.SZ) reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of the year, driven by strong operational performance and favorable market conditions [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 125 million yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 197% [1] - The company has maintained a state of full production and sales throughout the period [1] Market Conditions - The price of products for American clients saw a substantial increase due to the impact of US-China tariff policies [1] - It is anticipated that product prices in the US market will experience a rational adjustment and decline in the second half of the year as global trade policies are gradually implemented [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Tin prices rose slightly and then fell recently. Domestic smelter production cuts briefly pushed up tin prices this week, but the impact was limited, and prices returned to the trading range. In the short term, tin prices may remain range - bound. The Fed Chairman's speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting lifted the valuation of the non - ferrous metals sector, and the over - rise may be corrected within the next 1 trading day. Fundamentally, the continuous two - week decline in tin ingot social inventory may provide upward momentum for tin prices. The production start - up of tin solder enterprises on the demand side is okay, and they still have the willingness to take delivery when the price is not higher than 270,000 yuan per ton [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations. Negative factors include the recurrence of tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 265,930 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.2 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin main, Shanghai Tin continuous one, and Shanghai Tin continuous three are 265,930 yuan/ton, 266,130 yuan/ton, and 266,510 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change. The price of LME Tin 3M is 33,845 dollars/ton, up 370 dollars with a daily increase of 1.11%. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.97, up 0.05 with a daily increase of 0.63% [5]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot, 1 tin premium, 40% tin concentrate, 60% tin concentrate, 60A solder bar, 63A solder bar, and lead - free solder are 266,000 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton, 254,000 yuan/ton, 258,000 yuan/ton, 172,750 yuan/ton, 180,250 yuan/ton, and 272,250 yuan/ton respectively. The 1 tin premium increased by 100 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 33.33%, while other spot prices had no weekly change [11]. 3.3 Tin Import and Processing - The latest tin import profit and loss is - 16,622.23 yuan/ton, up 1,109.34 yuan with a daily decrease of 6.26%. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin ore are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [15]. 3.4 Tin Inventory - The latest total tin warehouse receipt quantity on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,053 tons, down 205 tons with a daily decrease of 2.82%. The warehouse receipt quantities in Guangdong and Shanghai are 4,925 tons and 1,267 tons respectively, down 121 tons (- 2.4%) and 84 tons (- 6.22%) respectively. The total LME tin inventory is 1,740 tons, up 25 tons with a daily increase of 1.46% [17].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and U.S.-China tariff policies, which collectively support gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - U.S. inflation data for July shows a Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, aligning with market expectations. Core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since January, indicating easing inflation pressures that support the Fed's potential rate cuts and bolster gold prices [2]. - Following the inflation data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased, with the likelihood rising from 86% to 94%. Lower interest rates diminish the dollar's appeal and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus favoring gold price increases [2]. - The U.S. and China have extended their tariff truce for 90 days until November 10, alleviating trade tensions and reducing potential inflationary pressures, which enhances gold's attractiveness as a hedge against geopolitical risks [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop on Monday, erasing all gains from the previous week, with bearish signals emerging. Tuesday's trading entered a corrective phase, resembling patterns from mid-June. The short-term outlook remains weak, with a focus on whether the downward trend will continue [3]. - In the short-term structure, gold is currently in a C-3-3 downward phase. A critical support level is identified at 3331; if this level holds, a potential rebound may occur, with resistance levels at 3360/3361, 3370, and 3379/3380. Conversely, if the price breaks below 3331, further support levels to watch are 3322/3321 and 3310 [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the oilseed and fats market, particularly focusing on the impacts of U.S.-China tariff negotiations on global agricultural markets, especially soybeans and palm oil [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: - COMEX and LME inventory pressures are increasing, which may lead to the elimination of price differentials between the two exchanges. Oil and gold prices are experiencing low volatility, indicating potential trading opportunities under external shocks [1][2]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs**: - Post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, extreme risks have not escalated, but retaliatory policies continue to affect global agricultural markets. North American soybean supply is decreasing while overseas palm oil prices are rising, making the fourth quarter's domestic soybean supply-demand balance critical [1][3]. 3. **Soybean Supply and Demand**: - The expectation of a bumper crop in South America is suppressing prices, while domestic soybean meal faces inventory pressure and tight expectations for the fourth quarter. Current enterprise inventories have exceeded one million tons, limiting the upward price movement of soybean meal [1][4]. 4. **U.S. Soybean Production**: - The new season's U.S. soybean yield is at a record level of 52.5 bushels per acre, up 4% from the previous year, despite a 4% reduction in planting area. However, due to tariff uncertainties, U.S. soybean exports are significantly lagging, with the latest annual export forecast at 47 million tons, which is below expectations and may be further downgraded [5][7]. 5. **China's Soybean Imports**: - China is expected to import approximately 59.8 million tons of soybeans from May to September 2025, an increase from 55 million tons in 2024. This increment will provide inventory buffer for the fourth quarter. If no U.S. soybeans are imported in the fourth quarter, a gap of about 2.5 million tons may arise, but it can be managed through tight balance due to Brazilian export potential and domestic stocks [1][13]. 6. **Palm Oil Market Dynamics**: - Palm oil prices have recently surged due to better-than-expected Malaysian inventory data and increased exports. The key to the global palm oil price recovery lies in the restoration of Indonesian inventories, with the B40 biodiesel policy in Indonesia expected to support domestic consumption [1][16][17]. 7. **Future Trends in Oilseed Market**: - The oilseed market is influenced by various factors, including the increase in U.S. biofuel blending ratios and the seasonal impact of weather changes. These factors will collectively determine the future direction of the oilseed market [6]. 8. **Competition from South America**: - Brazil's record soybean production and exports have intensified competition for U.S. soybeans, with Brazil exporting 69 million tons from March to July 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year. This situation raises concerns about the U.S. export outlook [9][12]. 9. **Domestic Consumption Challenges**: - Despite U.S. policies to boost domestic consumption through biofuels, the loss of Chinese demand creates a significant gap that cannot be fully compensated. The EPA's increase in biodiesel blending ratios is not sufficient to offset the lost demand from China [9][12]. 10. **Market Sentiment**: - The soybean meal market is experiencing increased trading volume and price expectations, reflecting strong market sentiment for future price increases. The outcome of U.S.-China trade relations will significantly impact market dynamics [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - The potential for large-scale imports of Argentine soybean meal remains uncertain due to possible impacts on the domestic crushing industry, necessitating ongoing monitoring of policy changes [14]. - The competitive pricing of Argentine soybean meal and Brazilian soybeans poses challenges for U.S. exports, with Argentine soybean meal priced at approximately 2,880 yuan per ton, making it more competitive than domestic prices [15].

Group 1: Main Views - This month, cotton prices first rose and then fell. The July USDA report on U.S. cotton was bearish, with increased planting area, slightly decreased yield per unit, and slightly increased ending stocks. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate, and the U.S. dollar index continued to rise, suppressing U.S. commodities. The weather in U.S. cotton-growing areas was favorable, and the export of U.S. cotton was weak. In China, the commercial cotton inventory was decreasing, imports were low, downstream demand was in the off - season, and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariff measures was negative for cotton textile exports. The new cotton in Xinjiang was in the full - bloom stage, and the high - temperature situation had eased [6]. - The strategy is to note that the good weather in U.S. cotton - growing areas and the extension of Sino - U.S. tariffs have pressured U.S. cotton to fluctuate weakly. In China, low imports and continuous consumption of commercial inventory have led to a relatively fast de - stocking process, but downstream demand is still weak, and Sino - U.S. tariffs continue to suppress terminal exports. With an increase in the planting area of new - season cotton and the alleviation of high - temperature in Xinjiang, Zhengzhou cotton first rose and then fell. Pay attention to weather changes in growing areas, and Zhengzhou cotton will continue to bottom out at a low level [6]. Group 2: Market Review - As of July 31, the ICE U.S. cotton 12 contract closed at 67.22 cents per pound, down 0.82 points from the previous month's close, with a monthly decline of 1.21%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,650 yuan per ton, down 90 points from the opening, with a monthly decline of 0.66% [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis External Market - U.S. Cotton - **Balance Sheet**: In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to be 10.12 million acres, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 acres; the harvest area is expected to be 8.66 million acres, an increase of 470,000 acres; the yield per unit is expected to be 809 pounds per acre, a decrease of 11 pounds per acre; the output is expected to be 14.6 million bales, an increase of 600,000 bales; the total supply is expected to be 18.71 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales; the total consumption is expected to be 14.2 million bales, unchanged; the ending stocks are expected to be 4.6 million bales, an increase of 300,000 bales [15][16]. - **Goodness - to - Grade Ratio**: As of the week of July 27, the goodness - to - grade ratio of U.S. cotton was 55%, lower than the previous week but higher than the same period last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average; the squaring rate was 80%, higher than the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [20]. - **Exports**: As of July 24, the net export sales of U.S. upland cotton in the 2024/2025 season were 39,000 bales, compared with - 33,000 bales in the previous week; the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 72,000 bales, compared with 133,000 bales in the previous week. The cumulative export sales were 1.0088 million bales, accounting for 93.31% of the July USDA report [24]. Domestic Market - **Spinning Mills' Operation**: As of July 31, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 66.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The operating rate continued to decline, downstream orders did not change significantly, and the sales of spinning mills were slow. The operating rate of inland spinning mills was about 50%, while that in Xinjiang remained stable [28]. - **Spinning Mills' Inventory**: As of July 31, the cotton inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of days was 27.80 days, and the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 31.7 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [31]. - **Cotton Inventory**: As of July 25, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.3056 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 151,900 tons (a decrease of 6.18%). As of July 31, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 5.07% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 335,400 tons [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the LPG market is bearish [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The August CP official price has decreased, and the LPG price is fluctuating weakly. The current market has a large number of new warehouse receipts. The reverse arbitrage logic for the PG09 delivery month may be repeated, but there are still uncertainties in the macro - aspect. Due to the suppression of the August CP price, the current spread is in a volatile window. It is recommended that investors mainly stay on the sidelines in the LPG market [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated within the range of 3990 - 4100 yuan/ton. The rise in international crude oil prices briefly boosted the market, but the negative factors were concentrated in the domestic and international spot markets. The international LPG price fluctuated slightly, the domestic chemical demand fluctuated slightly, the combustion demand was weak, and the downstream purchased at low prices. The increase in imported shipments put pressure on the market, and the domestic spot price fluctuated downward [7]. 3.2 LPG Futures Price, Inter - month Spread, and Cross - month Spread Overview - As of August 2, 2025, the prices of different LPG contracts (PG01 - PG12) and their inter - month and cross - month spreads had different changes compared with the previous week and month. For example, the PG09 - PG10 spread was - 439 yuan/ton, with a 4.28% increase compared with the previous week and a 12.28% increase compared with the previous month [10]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.65 tons, including 20.98 tons of civil LPG, 20.30 tons of industrial LPG, and 17.74 tons of ether - post C4. The arrival volume of LPG was 65 tons. Two Shandong refineries resumed operation last week, increasing the supply. This week, one enterprise in Shandong is under maintenance, one enterprise in the Northwest has started its device, and some enterprises have increased their device loads. It is expected that the domestic commodity volume may continue to grow [5]. 3.3.2 Demand - The combustion demand remains weak, and it is difficult to improve significantly as it is the traditional off - season, and the downstream has little procurement demand, mainly replenishing as needed. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the oil product market performed poorly, the inventory pressure of domestic deep - processing enterprises increased, which restricted the performance of products such as isooctane and MTBE, and weakened the demand for ether - post C4. This impact is expected to continue in August. In the alkane deep - processing sector, the concentrated restart of PDH maintenance has increased the operating rate, but the demand for propylene in the intermediate link and PP at the terminal is average in the off - season, the fundamentals are loose, and the profits of other downstream sectors have also suffered varying degrees of losses, so the C3 chain remains bearish [5]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG inventory in refineries was 18.08 tons, and the port inventory was 313.44 tons. This week, the LPG inventories of enterprises in various regions of the country remained stable overall. Only the inventory in Shandong increased slightly due to the increase in supply, while the inventory in East China decreased due to the boost of Fujian resources going to sea. The number of arriving ships at ports increased this period. Only in East China were the arriving ships affected by the typhoon, and the imported resources were relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, the chemical demand decreased slightly this period, and the combustion demand was tepid. The overall demand decreased slightly. With the high arrival volume, the port inventory showed an upward trend this period [5]. 3.3.4 Basis, Position - The weekly average basis was 72.63 yuan/ton in East China, 54.84 yuan/ton in South China, and 46.56 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 9759, an increase of 45. The lowest deliverable area was East China [5]. 3.3.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 566.00%, 404.40%, and 450.00% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 431 yuan/ton, - 333 yuan/ton, and 42.00 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.3.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 72.63, and the spread between the first and second - month contracts of PG was - 4.81 yuan/ton. The spot price has not yet bottomed out, the basis level is high, and there is still room for the absolute price to fall [5]. 3.3.7 Other - The fundamentals of crude oil remain loose, the demand in the refined oil market is weak, and the international crude oil price is fluctuating downward. The market's bullish sentiment on the "anti - involution" policy has weakened, and the premium of the coal - chemical and new - energy chains has been given back. On July 31, Trump signed an executive order to impose "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions, but the market generally believes that Sino - US tariffs may ease [5]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the PG9 - 10 reverse arbitrage [5].