Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of the US-China rivalry, highlighting that while both nations engage in intense competition, other countries remain silent and passive, indicating a lack of influence in the ongoing conflict [1][4][7] - It notes that the US has raised tariffs on China to over 50%, but both sides have shown restraint, maintaining tariffs around 10% to avoid severe economic repercussions [5][6] - The article emphasizes that the competition revolves around trade rules, technological dominance, and resource control, with both nations carefully managing the crisis to avoid total breakdown [6][10] Group 2 - The impact of the US-China rivalry on third-party countries is significant, as they suffer from reduced competitiveness and market access due to the tariffs imposed by both superpowers [9][12] - South Korea is highlighted as a case study, attempting to align with the US while still needing to maintain ties with China, resulting in a precarious position that has led to a decline in its semiconductor exports [12][13] - The article concludes that the silence of other nations stems from their realization of their limited power in the geopolitical landscape, with many caught between the competing interests of the US and China [15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period is a crucial five - year period that connects the past and the future, with special significance for high - quality development and achieving the 2035 visionary goals [10][11]. - China's economic development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period faces a complex and uncertain internal and external environment. Externally, there are challenges such as global economic slowdown, intensified great - power competition, and supply - chain reconstruction; internally, there are issues like economic growth slowdown, effective demand shortage, and population aging [13]. - To promote high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, five major policy levers should be grasped, including developing new quality productive forces, expanding domestic demand, deepening income distribution reform, building a unified national market, and reshaping the incentive - restraint mechanism [67][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "15th Five - Year Plan" Historical Position - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is at the historical intersection of the "Two Centenary Goals" and is a foundational stage for the new journey of building a modern socialist country. It has a "connecting - the - past - and - future" role, with tasks of "attacking and implementing" and coincides with many major historical nodes [10][11]. 3.2 Ten Judgments on the Internal and External Environment of China's Economic Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period 3.2.1 External Environment - Global economic uncertainty increases, and the global economy may enter a deep adjustment period of slow growth and declining potential output. The "15th Five - Year Plan" may face a "high - risk, high - volatility" global economic environment with weak growth momentum [14][16]. - A multi - polar trade system is taking shape. China's voice in global economic and trade is expected to further increase, but trade frictions with non - US countries may intensify [20][21]. - Sino - US competition remains the core variable affecting the global political and economic landscape, evolving towards "normalization" and "complexity." The competition for scientific and technological and industrial discourse power is crucial [31][32]. - Supply - chain reconstruction has entered the second half, with geopolitics and strategic security becoming the main lines of global supply - chain layout [35]. - China has many favorable factors to actively shape the external environment and is not completely passive in the face of external pressure [39][40]. 3.2.2 Internal Environment - The official "4.17%" may be the minimum growth target for the "15th Five - Year Plan," and the expected economic growth range is around 4.5% - 5% [41]. - The transformation of old and new driving forces will accelerate the adjustment of China's industrial structure. The real estate industry may be in the transition from the bottom to a new cycle, and the urgency of new quality productive forces playing a leading role has increased significantly [45][47]. - The population structure may gradually transition to deep aging, and the pressure of "getting old before getting rich" poses more severe challenges to the pension system, medical resources, and elderly care services [53]. - Reform has entered the "deep - water zone," and the implementation of some reform tasks faces significant resistance [57]. - "Debt reduction in development" should be implemented, focusing on structural optimization and efficiency improvement to enhance the sustainability of fiscal debt [61][63]. 3.3 Five Levers to Promote China's High - Quality Development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" Period - **Lever 1: Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading** "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions prioritize building a modern industrial system. China's industrial structure has problems such as traditional industries in urgent need of transformation and modern manufacturing being "large but not strong." R & D investment is still relatively low, and there are "bottleneck" issues in key areas. "Full - chain" key core technology research in key areas is necessary, and industry "involution" should be avoided [69][70][71]. - **Lever 2: Expanding Domestic Demand and Boosting Consumption** The importance of "expanding domestic demand" has increased. Insufficient effective demand is the core obstacle to the domestic cycle. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, direct subsidies to residents may be increased, and investment growth is expected to be stable, especially ensuring that the proportion of private investment does not continue to decline [5][8]. - **Lever 3: Deepening Income Distribution Reform and Improving the Social Security System** "People's livelihood" is a key word in the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions. Income distribution reform, household registration system reform, and improvement of the social security system are expected to be key tasks [6]. - **Lever 4: Continuously Promoting Anti - involution and Building a Unified National Market** Building a unified national market is a systematic project. The implementation of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee's reform tasks is crucial, especially optimizing the local government assessment and incentive mechanism and solving the problem of China's economic growth path dependence [8]. - **Lever 5: Remodeling the Incentive - Restraint Mechanism and Releasing the Vitality of Micro - entities** The "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions emphasize "combining strict management with kindness and balancing incentives and restraints." It is expected to optimize the local assessment and statistical system, promote fiscal and tax system reform, and improve the business environment for enterprises [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strategic shifts in U.S.-China relations, particularly in the context of economic pressures and geopolitical maneuvers, with the U.S. easing tariffs as a response to domestic inflation and upcoming elections [1][3][5] - The Philippines' rapid re-establishment of electronic visa services for Chinese citizens is seen as a pragmatic move to revive its economy, despite ongoing tensions in the South China Sea [1][5][9] - The U.S. military's perceived ineffectiveness in the South China Sea, exemplified by the recent incident involving the USS Nimitz, reflects a broader decline in American influence and reliability as a security partner for Southeast Asian nations [3][4][6] Group 2 - The economic impact on the Philippines due to strained relations with China is significant, with a drastic decline in fishing yields and tourism, highlighting the urgent need for economic recovery measures [4][5][6] - The shift in the Philippines' foreign policy indicates a broader trend among Southeast Asian countries, which are increasingly prioritizing economic opportunities with China over military alliances with the U.S. [5][6][7] - The articles suggest that the ongoing U.S.-China competition will be determined more by economic realities and cooperation rather than military posturing, as countries in the region seek practical benefits [6][7][9]

中国连续胜利，美国进入低谷时刻，中美博弈发生了深刻变化，联合国安理会也上演了一幕精彩的对决，时代的潮流似乎发生 了转变。 新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长、美国教授希睿德曾经说过一句话："这个世界上，除了中美以外，其他都是小 国。"作为全球最重要的双边关系，中美爆发军事冲突的可能性不大，因为没有一方愿意冒险玉石俱焚。但是这并不意味着两国 能和平共处。在经贸、科技等领域，中美之间的对抗越来越激烈，尤其是美国对全球加税和中国对稀土的重拳出击。自从特朗 普成为美国总统以来，很多人开始注意到，中国已经在没有开火的情况下，连续打了两场"翻身仗"，中美的实力和影响力正在 悄悄发生变化。 一、搬石头砸脚——中国的智慧反击战术 今年9月29日，美国商务部突然发布了一项出口管制措施，规定：如果某个实体被列入 美国的"实体清单"，那么它持股50%或以上的子公司也将自动受到同等制裁。这项规则被称为"50%穿透性规则"。简单来说，就 是如果某个公司被美国制裁，那么它的控股子公司也将受到制裁。于是，针对中国企业的"明抢"开始了。去年12月，闻泰科技 被美国列入了"实体清单"，而安世半导体是闻泰科技的全资子公司，总部设在荷兰。今年9月底，荷 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that China's attitude towards the U.S. is becoming increasingly assertive, and if the EU continues to lack strategic autonomy, it may find itself caught between the U.S. and China [1][11][13] - The recent U.S.-China meeting reached several agreements, including joint efforts to combat fentanyl trafficking, lowering certain tariffs, and delaying rare earth regulations, which provided some relief for European businesses [3][10] - However, the agreements lack detailed execution clauses and binding commitments, diminishing their practical effectiveness, and core issues such as technological competition and geopolitical differences remain unaddressed [3][4] Group 2 - The article highlights that the current geopolitical landscape has shifted, with China adopting a more proactive stance in response to U.S. tariffs and trade pressures, utilizing rare earths as a significant bargaining chip [8][10] - European industries, particularly the automotive and aerospace sectors, are increasingly vulnerable to the repercussions of U.S.-China tensions, as their supply chains heavily rely on Chinese rare earths and markets [10][14] - The EU recognizes the importance of strategic autonomy, as evidenced by the introduction of the "European Strategic Autonomy Act," aimed at reducing dependence on external critical resources and technologies [10][14]

周五国家取消稀土及部分新能源产品管控政策的消息一经发布，便引发广泛讨论。 市场上不少声音在问：这是否意味着中美关系迎来实质性转向？放开稀土出口，会不会让美国借机重建产业链，最终削弱中方的战略主动权？ 其实跳出单一政策变动的表面，就能发现这绝非简单的"让步"，而是基于产业实力与博弈全局的战略考量。 此前的适度管控，已让全球市场清晰看到稀土对高端制造的战略意义，也让美国深刻体会到其产业链对中国稀土的依赖。 松绑非妥协 稀土管控政策的调整，很容易被解读为"退一步"，但从战略层面看，稀土这一核心资源的管控从来都是灵活的"调节阀"，而非非黑即白的"开关"。 何时收紧、何时放宽，始终服务于整体博弈需求，而非被动应对外部压力。 此次政策调整，既是对中美元首会谈成果的落地，更本质的是产业优势赋予的底气。 全球稀土储量并不稀缺，美国、澳大利亚等国均有一定储备，但需明确的是，多数国家仅具备资源潜力，缺乏可经济开采的储备与加工能力，稀土 的战略价值从来不在于单一的资源储量，而在于全产业链的构建能力。 从矿石开采、选矿提纯，到冶炼分离、深加工，整个体系涉及上百个关键环节，每个环节都需要长期的技术积累、人才沉淀与供应链协同。 中国用三 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that liquidity easing and supply-side constraints will continue to be the main investment themes in the energy and materials sectors, benefiting precious metals, industrial metals, and certain chemicals like chromium and refrigerants [1] Group 1: Market Overview - From early 2025 to the present, the non-ferrous metal index has significantly outperformed the broader market, primarily due to strong performances in precious and rare metals [2] - Basic chemicals and steel indices have performed similarly to the market, while coal and oil & petrochemical indices have underperformed [2] Group 2: Precious Metals and Copper - Despite a recent high-level pullback in gold prices, the ongoing Fed rate cut cycle is expected to support gold prices, with a projected range of $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Silver is anticipated to have strong price elasticity due to an expanding supply-demand gap, with a projected price range of $50 to $60 per ounce for 2026 [3] - Copper remains a key investment direction in the metals sector, with a projected price range of $10,000 to $12,000 per ton for 2026, benefiting from liquidity easing and tightening supply [3] Group 3: Supply Constraints and Chemical Products - Supply-side constraints are expected to strengthen, with aluminum supply growth slowing and cobalt prices likely to rise due to severe supply shortages [4] - The projected price for aluminum in 2026 is set at 21,500 RMB per ton, while cobalt is expected to range between 400,000 to 450,000 RMB per ton [4] - Chromium and refrigerants are also expected to see price increases due to tight supply conditions influenced by environmental regulations [4] Group 4: Strategic Metals and US-China Relations - The ongoing US-China geopolitical tensions are enhancing the investment value of strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, with stable demand growth in defense and advanced manufacturing sectors [5] - The projected price range for praseodymium-neodymium oxide in 2026 is expected to rise to 550,000 to 650,000 RMB per ton, while tungsten is projected to be between 300,000 to 350,000 RMB per ton [5] Group 5: High Demand for Lithium and Potash - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to stronger-than-expected demand from energy storage batteries, with a projected price range of 80,000 to 100,000 RMB per ton for 2026 [6] - Potash prices are also expected to increase, driven by delayed production expansions in major producing regions and strong demand growth in Southeast Asia [6] Group 6: Coal, Steel, Silicon, and Oil - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support price recoveries in coal, steel, and silicon materials, with projections for slight price increases in thermal coal, coking coal, and silicon materials in 2026 [7] - The steel industry is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, with ongoing supply constraints and improved profit distribution trends [7] - Oil supply and demand are expected to shift from a loose to a balanced state, with Brent crude oil prices projected to rise to $65 to $70 per barrel [7]

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights ShenGong Co., Ltd. (688233) as a leading supplier of electronic-grade monocrystalline silicon materials, benefiting from the overall supply chain improvement due to the storage cycle, with a global market share of approximately 15% [4] - The expected revenue for ShenGong from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 471.2 million, 803.5 million, and 1,308.4 million CNY, with growth rates of 55.6%, 70.5%, and 62.8% respectively [4] - The report also emphasizes Tongli Co., Ltd. (920599) as a global leader in mining wide-body vehicles, with anticipated steady growth driven by the penetration of new energy and autonomous driving technologies [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The macroeconomic report discusses the relationship between equity markets and the real economy, suggesting that while short-term market movements can diverge from fundamentals due to policy and liquidity factors, long-term sustainability relies on fundamental support [9] - The report indicates that the current market state is complex, with a focus on balanced allocation and observation of key signals from the Shanghai Composite Index and the performance of brokerage stocks [10] - The bond market analysis reveals that the spread between national development bonds and government bonds has widened significantly for maturities of 3 to 5 years, indicating a shift in the central bank's primary bond purchasing focus [13]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the A-share bull market is expected to continue into 2026, with a forecast of a fluctuating upward trend in the index, although the rate of increase may slow down. Investors are advised to focus on fundamental improvements and economic verification [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The current market is entering a critical phase of economic verification, where the index is expected to continue fluctuating upward but with a reduced rate of increase. This phase may see a style switch in the market, with sectors that have high valuations but lowered growth expectations potentially undergoing a phase adjustment [1][2]. - The bull market is supported by a shift in policy and improved liquidity, which are expected to continue or even strengthen through 2026. However, the report warns that excessive short-term gains could lead to an early peak in the bull market [1]. Group 2: Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch include new energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military industry, machinery equipment, and computers. Thematic focuses include new materials, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and cross-strait integration [1][2]. - The report highlights that after the technology bull market, resource commodities may become a new mainline direction for A-shares. Conditions for a resource bull market are accumulating, driven by global monetary easing, supply-demand gaps, and the ongoing competition for key resources amid US-China tensions [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should look for performance elasticity and capitalize on structural market trends, particularly in AI, new energy, and critical resources. The competition between the US and China in future industries and frontier technologies is expected to intensify, with a focus on AI, new energy, biotechnology, and quantum technology [2]. - The military industry is identified as a significant direction for the 14th Five-Year Plan, with attention on rare earth equipment, superhard materials, special gases, aerospace equipment, and new materials [2].

Core Viewpoint - China's export control on rare earths has become a significant tool in the ongoing US-China rivalry, marking a shift from passive to active defense strategies [1] Group 1: Export Control and Economic Warfare - The recent export control measures on rare earths are seen as a direct response to aggressive US policies, including the "50% ownership penetration" rule and exorbitant fees for Chinese ships entering US ports [1] - The "long-arm jurisdiction" policy not only restricts the export of raw materials but also applies to processed rare earth products that utilize Chinese technology, effectively controlling global supply chains [1] Group 2: Dependency on Chinese Supply Chains - The US estimates that it will take at least seven to eight years to completely eliminate dependence on Chinese rare earths, requiring hundreds of billions in federal investment annually [4] - Key industries such as lithium batteries, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are heavily reliant on Chinese materials, with over 70% of basic pharmaceutical raw materials sourced from China [7][8] Group 3: Challenges in Alternative Supply Chains - The US attempts to build alternative supply chains for rare earths face significant challenges, particularly in refining capabilities, where China holds a monopoly on advanced processing techniques [1][4] - The semiconductor industry is also at risk, with China capturing 31% of the market share in mature processes, and US manufacturers relying on Chinese firms for critical components [5] Group 4: Broader Implications of the US-China Rivalry - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the potential for resource management strategies extending beyond rare earths to include nickel, cobalt, and lithium [10] - The competition is not just about technology but also about systemic resilience, with China demonstrating a strong ability to adapt and innovate under pressure [15]