Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Report Summary - Market risk preference has increased due to the start of China-US economic and trade consultations. The market is concerned about the results of these consultations [9][11]. - The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal have boosted market confidence [13]. - The meeting on the operation of key enterprises in the non-ferrous metal industry in the third quarter emphasized preventing "involutionary" vicious competition and ensuring the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain [15]. 02 Multi-Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: - Social inventory has decreased slightly, and domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has recovered [7]. - China's September scrap copper imports increased, with a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase, mainly due to policy adjustments and the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" season [27][28]. - In September, the output of copper strips ended a four - month decline, and the output of refined copper rods increased slightly [30][33]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, which is beneficial for refined copper consumption [36]. - The new energy vehicle industry has maintained a strong momentum, with September production and sales increasing by 23.7% and 24.6% year - on - year respectively [41][42]. - Domestic electrolytic copper inventory has decreased, and the domestic copper spot premium has turned into a discount while the foreign premium - discount range has narrowed [44][47]. - **Bearish Factors**: - In September, China's copper ore imports decreased, with a 6.24% month - on - month decline. The supply from Chile dropped by over 30%. Global copper mine supply shows rigidity and vulnerability [17][19]. - The TC of copper concentrates remains at a low level, with the weekly index at - 40.7 dollars/dry ton as of October 17, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [20][21]. - In October, the output of electrolytic copper continued to decline due to peak smelter maintenance, the impact of recycled copper policies, and a decrease in the incentive to increase production [23][24]. - The real estate market is weak, with a decline in construction area, new construction area, and sales area from January to September [38][39]. 03 Data Analysis - **Supply - side Data**: - China's September copper ore imports were 2.5869 million tons, a 6.24% month - on - month decrease and a 6.43% year - on - year increase. The supply from Chile dropped to 649,400 tons [19]. - As of October 17, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/dry ton, down 0.13 dollars/dry ton from the previous week [21]. - In September, domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and a 14.48% year - on - year increase. In October, production continued to decline [24]. - China's September scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a 2.6% month - on - month and 14.8% year - on - year increase [28]. - **Demand - side Data**: - In September, the output of copper strips was 196,200 tons, a 2.35% month - on - month increase but an 8.7% year - on - year decrease [31]. - In September, the output of refined copper rods was 849,300 tons, a 0.18% month - on - month increase, while the output of recycled copper rods was 170,800 tons, a 1.04% month - on - month decrease [34]. - From January to September, real estate development enterprise housing construction area decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and new construction area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year [39]. - In September, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6% [42]. - **Inventory Data**: - LME copper inventory was 11,240 tons last week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory increased by 0.5% to 110,240 tons in the week of October 17, and COMEX copper inventory was 347,498 tons. As of October 23, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, down 5,700 tons from the 20th [45]. 04后市研判 - Copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Investors should wait for a pullback to buy [49].

Report Summary - The market focus is on the China-US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th and the "15th Five-Year Plan" policy. The market risk appetite has increased, and the market has more expectations for next year's economic development. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the output is expected to further increase. The average weekly operating rate of enterprises is expected to remain stable at 62.5%. The LME 0 - 3 maintains a premium, and the LME inventory has declined slightly for two consecutive months. As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons month - on - month. The aluminum price has continued to rise due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, and investors should wait for a callback to buy. Pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [5]. Multi - Empty Focus Bullish Factors - The increase in the domestic supply side is relatively limited [8]. - The social inventory of aluminum ingots has declined [8]. - The domestic and foreign macro - sentiment has warmed up [8]. Bearish Factors - After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [8]. - The price of aluminum oxide continues to be weak [8]. Data Analysis Bauxite - In September, China's bauxite output was 4.8821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.32%. The supply in Shanxi and Henan is tight, but the overall price is expected to remain stable. With the end of the rainy season, the domestic supply is expected to significantly recover [20]. - In September, China's bauxite imports were 15.88 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The imports from Guinea and Australia decreased. After the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume may gradually increase [22]. Alumina - In September, the alumina price declined, and the factory profit decreased but still had a profit. The output decreased by 1.7% month - on - month and increased by 5.3% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity increased by 1.54% month - on - month, and the operating rate was 80.2%. It is expected that the output in October will remain stable [25]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In September, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 3.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The operating capacity and the proportion of molten aluminum slightly increased, and the output changed little. In October, the daily average output of aluminum ingots is expected to further increase [29]. - In September, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical industry profit reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [33]. - Last week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was stable at 62.5%. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to slightly increase this week [37]. Inventory - The LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and as of a certain time, it was 477,675 tons. The SHFE aluminum inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week to 122,028 tons [50]. - As of October 23rd, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,000 tons [54]. Price Premium - On October 23rd, the average price premium of Shanghai Wumao aluminum changed from par to a discount of 30 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium decreased to 8.21 US dollars/ton [58]. Recycled Aluminum - In September, the output of recycled aluminum alloy was 661,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. It is expected that the output in October will slightly decrease [62]. - As of October 16th, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 58.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3% [66]. Unwrought Aluminum Alloy - In September, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2% and a month - on - month increase of 15.77%. It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same - period import volume [70]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - As of October 24th, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 75,300 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week, and the in - factory inventory was 59,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week [76]. Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy: The price of scrap aluminum is firm, the inventory of recycled aluminum has decreased, and the price of aluminum alloy will continue to remain high [78]. - SHFE aluminum: Due to the resonance of macro and micro factors, the aluminum price has continued to rise. Investors should wait for a callback to buy and pay attention to the results of the China - US consultations [80].

Group 1 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is a critical phase for China to achieve its 2035 vision, focusing on high-quality development and safety rather than just speed [2][4][6] - The recent 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session outlined key strategies, including building a modern industrial system and enhancing technological self-reliance [3][5] - The emphasis on maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing highlights China's commitment to safeguarding its manufacturing base amid global supply chain challenges [6][7] Group 2 - The plan aims to significantly improve technological self-reliance, with a focus on original innovation and tackling key core technologies [6][8] - The strategy to build a strong domestic market underscores the importance of enhancing domestic demand and addressing structural issues like local protectionism [7][9] - The modernization of the national security system is a priority, aiming to integrate development and security in a resilient framework [8][9] Group 3 - The plan includes measures for common prosperity, indicating potential reforms in income distribution and social security systems [9] - Agricultural modernization is highlighted as essential for food security and promoting social equity, indicating a comprehensive approach to rural development [9] - The optimization of regional economic layouts aims to address development imbalances and leverage comparative advantages for high-quality growth [9]

Core Insights - The recent announcements by the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earths mark a shift in China's approach from point control to a comprehensive chain management strategy, responding to the U.S. "50% rule" [1] - Rare earths are critical for high-tech manufacturing, with China dominating the global market, accounting for nearly 70% of production and possessing the entire supply chain [2][3] - China's technological edge in rare earth processing is supported by a significant number of patents and proprietary extraction techniques, with 82% of new global patents in this field attributed to Chinese companies [2][3] Industry Overview - Rare earths, comprising 17 metal elements, are essential in various advanced manufacturing sectors, including electric vehicles, wind energy, and electronics, influencing both current manufacturing capabilities and future technological competitiveness [2] - The U.S. relies heavily on imports from China, with 70% of its rare earth imports sourced from China, despite having its own mineral reserves [2][4] - The barriers to entry in the rare earth industry are primarily due to the complexities of refining and processing, areas where China holds a significant advantage [2][3] Technological Leadership - China's dominance in rare earth technology is attributed to decades of development, with a complete industrial chain established from mining to processing and application [3][5] - The late academician Xu Guangxian played a pivotal role in developing extraction theories that propelled China's rare earth industry forward [3] - The U.S. has fallen behind in rare earth processing technology after outsourcing these operations in the 1990s, leading to a loss of domestic capabilities [3][4] Future Outlook - The upcoming Rare Earth Management Regulations set to be implemented in October 2024 will encourage innovation and the development of new technologies in the rare earth sector, aiming for high-end, intelligent, and green development [5] - The emphasis on strengthening the domestic industrial base and supply chain resilience is crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the global market [6] - The focus on core technologies and the stability of supply chains is essential for addressing vulnerabilities and ensuring long-term economic security [6]

联系电话：0086-10-65292624、65292650。 新京报讯 据交通运输部消息，为保障我国航运业、造船业及相关产业链供应链安全和发展利益，依据 《中华人民共和国国家安全法》《中华人民共和国反外国制裁法》及实施规定、《中华人民共和国国际 海运条例》等法律法规，交通运输部会同工业和信息化部等部门对我国航运业、造船业和相关产业链供 应链安全和发展利益受美301调查影响或可能影响情况，相关企业、组织或个人是否存在实施、协助、 支持美国在航运业、造船业及相关产业链供应链对我国采取歧视性限制措施的行为，及其他相关事项开 展调查。后续根据调查情况适时出台相应措施。 调查期间，欢迎相关企业、协会、个人及相关方提供线索、反映情况、提出意见和建议。 电子邮箱：shipping@mot.gov.cn。 来信地址及邮编：北京市东城区建国门内大街11号交通运输部水运局，100736。 ...

为保障我国航运业、造船业及相关产业链供应链安全和发展利益，依据《中华人民共和国国家安全法》《中华人民共和国反外国制裁法》及实施规 定、《中华人民共和国国际海运条例》等法律法规， 交通运输部会同工业和信息化部等部门对我国航运业、造船业和相关产业链供应链安全和发展 利益受美301调查影响或可能影响情况， 相关企业、组织或个人是否存在实施、协助、支持美国在航运业、造船业及相关产业链供应链对我国采取歧 视性限制措施的行为，及其他相关事项开展调查。 后续根据调查情况适时出台相应措施。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has implemented export controls on rare earth materials to enhance its export control system, citing the importance of these materials in military applications and the need to maintain global peace and regional stability [2][3]. Group 1: Export Control Measures - The export control measures are a legitimate action by the Chinese government based on laws and regulations, aimed at ensuring national security and international safety [2][4]. - China emphasizes that the export controls are not a ban on exports; applications that meet the criteria will be approved, and the government is open to facilitating compliant trade [3][4]. Group 2: Response to U.S. Actions - The U.S. has announced a 100% tariff on Chinese rare earth exports and additional export controls on key software, which China views as a double standard and a violation of fair trade practices [4][5]. - China has expressed strong opposition to the U.S. actions, which it believes undermine the atmosphere for economic talks and harm mutual interests [5][6]. Group 3: Bilateral Relations and Future Cooperation - China urges the U.S. to correct its erroneous practices and to engage in dialogue based on mutual respect and equality to resolve concerns and manage differences [5][7]. - The Chinese government has indicated that it will take necessary countermeasures to protect its legitimate rights and interests in response to U.S. unilateral actions [6][7].

Group 1 - China has implemented export controls on rare earth materials, citing the importance of these materials in military applications and the need to maintain global peace and regional stability [2][3] - The export controls are not a ban; applications that meet regulations will be approved, and China aims to facilitate compliant trade through various measures [3] - The Chinese government has assessed the potential impact of these measures on supply chains and believes the effects will be limited [2][3] Group 2 - In response to China's export controls, the U.S. announced a 100% tariff on related items and export controls on key software, which China views as a double standard [3][4] - The U.S. has expanded its export control list significantly, with over 3,000 items compared to China's list of just over 900, which China argues disrupts international trade order [3][4] - China has expressed strong opposition to the U.S. actions, emphasizing the need for dialogue and cooperation to resolve trade disputes [4][5] Group 3 - The U.S. plans to impose port fees on Chinese vessels starting October 14, which China claims violates WTO rules and the U.S.-China maritime agreement [4][5] - China's countermeasures against the U.S. port fees are described as necessary defensive actions to protect its industries and ensure fair competition in international shipping [5]

2、有记者问：我们注意到，近日商务部发布公告加强稀土等相关物项出口管制，请问后续将如何实 施？ 据商务部网站，商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问。 1、有记者问：10月9日，商务部、海关总署发布公告，对相关稀土物项实施出口管制。请问中方有什 么考虑？ 答：中方发布了关于稀土等相关物项的出口管制措施，这是中国政府依据法律法规，完善自身出口管制 体系的正当做法。当前世界局势动荡不安，军事冲突时有发生，中方注意到中重稀土相关物项在军事领 域有重要应用。中国是负责任大国，依法对相关物项实施出口管制，目的是更好维护世界和平与地区稳 定，履行防扩散等国际义务。 中国的出口管制不是禁止出口，对符合规定的申请将予以许可。在措施公布前，中方已通过双边出口管 制对话机制向各有关国家和地区作了通报。中方愿与各国加强出口管制对话交流，更好维护全球产业链 供应链安全稳定。 特别是9月中美马德里经贸会谈以来，短短20多天时间，美方持续新增出台一系列对华限制措施，将多 家中国实体列入出口管制实体清单和特别指定国民清单；通过穿透性规则任意扩大受管制企业范围，影 响中方数千家企业；无视中方关切和善意，执意落地对华海事、物流 ...

商务部新闻发言人10日表示，美方不断泛化国家安全概念，滥用出口管制措施，滥施长臂管辖，对包括 中国企业在内的多家实体实施穿透性制裁。美方此举严重损害企业合法权益，破坏全球产业链供应链安 全稳定，中方对此坚决反对。中方敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，并将采取必要措施，坚决维护中国实体 的合法权益。 当天，有记者问：美东时间2025年10月8日，美商务部宣布将多家中国实体列入出口管制"实体清单"， 请问中方对此有何评论？商务部新闻发言人作出上述回应。 ...