Core Insights - Xiaomi's first SUV, YU7, has commenced delivery in 58 cities, with CEO Lei Jun personally participating in the delivery ceremony [1] - This marks the third time Lei Jun has personally delivered a new model, following the SU7 and SU7 Ultra [2] - As of June 2025, Xiaomi's automotive division reported over 25,000 units delivered in June alone, indicating strong production efforts [3] Group 1 - The YU7 delivery event was held at Xiaomi's Beijing headquarters, with Lei Jun engaging with customers [1] - Lei Jun noted a clear preference for the Max high-end version among YU7 users, with popular colors being shadow blue, pearl white, and flowing gold [2] - The YU7 underwent extensive testing, with 653 vehicles covering 6.49 million kilometers across 296 cities [2] Group 2 - Xiaomi's automotive division is facing a backlog of orders for the SU7, with delivery times exceeding 30 weeks [3] - The first phase of the factory has a designed capacity of 150,000 units, but current production is limited to 20,000-30,000 units per month due to operational constraints [3] - The second phase of the factory is expected to begin production soon, which may alleviate some of the delivery backlog [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the reconstruction of Ukraine is estimated to cost over $500 billion, as stated by Canada's Finance Minister [1] - The G7 finance ministers are discussing issues related to tariffs, capacity, non-market behavior, and financial crime during their meeting [1] - Canada reaffirms its commitment to continue providing financial support to Ukraine amidst the reconstruction efforts [1] Group 2 - Ukraine's Finance Minister Martynenko indicated that the G7 finance ministers will address all necessary and critical issues related to Ukraine's reconstruction [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, aluminum price rebound sustainability remains to be seen, nickel is expected to show a weak shock, and tin price volatility is expected to increase [1][2][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Base Metals Copper - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.08% to 78,090 yuan/ton. The easing of global trade tensions makes the copper price return to the fundamental logic. The TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the subsequent output of smelters may decline. The consumption is stable but the high monthly spread restricts it. Technically, it runs between 74,500 - 80,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the pressure at 78,500 yuan [1] Aluminum - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 1.27% to 20,005 yuan/ton. Bauxite supply increases and prices decline. Alumina production capacity decreases, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity increases. The downstream开工 rate has a weakening expectation. The aluminum price rebounds, but the sustainability needs to be observed [2] Nickel - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.52% to 123,860 yuan/ton. The inflation cools down, and the domestic manufacturing PMI declines. The nickel ore price is firm, the refined nickel is in surplus, the nickel - iron has support but is also in surplus, and the stainless - steel is in the off - season. The cost of nickel sulfate rises, but the demand is weak. It is expected to run weakly [3][5] Tin - As of May 13, the main 06 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.37% to 262,070 yuan/ton. The domestic refined tin output may decrease, and the import of tin concentrates decreases. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The tin ore supply is tight, and the mine has a strong resumption expectation. The price volatility is expected to increase, and the operation range is 250,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [6] Spot Transaction Summary Copper - The domestic spot copper price falls. After the copper price rises, the downstream's willingness to receive goods decreases, and the actual transaction activity is limited [7] Aluminum - The spot aluminum price rises. The holders' willingness to sell is slow at first, but the high price stimulates some profit - taking. The downstream only makes purchases at low prices, and the overall transaction is dull [8] Alumina - The spot price of alumina rises slightly. The transaction in the spot market becomes dull, and the downstream electrolytic aluminum enterprises make rigid purchases [9] Zinc - The spot zinc price falls. The activity in the spot trading market decreases, and the downstream users adopt a price - pressing and quantity - limiting strategy [10] Lead - The spot lead price remains unchanged. The downstream maintains rigid purchases and sales [11] Nickel - The spot nickel price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases at low prices, and the inquiry enthusiasm increases [12] Tin - The spot tin price falls. The merchants make rigid purchases, and the overall transaction activity is stable [13] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - For SHFE, copper, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increase, while aluminum, zinc, and tin futures warehouse receipts decrease. For LME, copper, zinc, and aluminum inventories decrease, while lead, nickel inventories increase, and tin inventory remains unchanged [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of aluminum is expected to show a mainly oscillating and moderately upward trend [5][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2506 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed an oscillating and weakening trend, ranging from around 19,310 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,050 yuan/ton [2][9]. - Last week, the price of LME aluminum futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the contract price running around 2,377 - 2,460 US dollars/ton [12]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous metal market was 19,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 19,640 yuan/ton, 19,840 yuan/ton, 19,665 yuan/ton, and 19,635 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium or discount of electrolytic aluminum remained around par, unchanged from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - In April 2025, the domestic in - production capacity of alumina was 87.4 million tons, with a total capacity of 110.82 million tons and an operating rate of 78.87%. The domestic operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. As of April 2025, the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.099 million tons, with a total capacity of 45.182 million tons and an operating rate of 97.6%. From a seasonal perspective, the operating rate was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [21]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 169,665 tons, a decrease of 6,192 tons from the previous week. As of May 8, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 405,575 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.13%. - As of May 8, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous day. The inventories in Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Foshan, Tianjin, Shenyang, Gongyi, and Chongqing were 31,000 tons, 196,000 tons, 14,000 tons, 237,000 tons, 20,000 tons, 1,000 tons, 74,000 tons, and 7,000 tons respectively [27]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve admitted that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased, and "the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased." In April, the one - year inflation expectation in the US remained stable at 3.6%, while the three - year inflation expectation rose from 3% to 4.2%, reaching the highest level since July 2022. The inflation expectation in the US has risen, and the pressure on the employment market has increased. - The total capacity of alumina continues to grow, while the in - production capacity has decreased. The capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to climb, and the operating rate remains at a high level. The inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to decline, and the inventory level is at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants has decreased slightly [4][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, OPEC's production increase has been fulfilled as scheduled. It is recommended that investors gradually take profits on dips, and it is not advisable to chase short positions excessively in the short term. In the current situation of low static inventory, going long on the positive spread on dips is still a good position [1]. - The domestic methanol supply is expected to continue to rise, imports will gradually increase, and traditional demand will gradually weaken. The supply - demand pattern will gradually weaken, and prices still face downward pressure. It is recommended to focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, and pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For urea, it is expected that there will be some support at the bottom, and prices will tend to be strong. Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. - Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading. It is recommended to adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For styrene, pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to the weak supply - demand situation [15]. - Polyethylene prices are expected to remain volatile in the short and medium term, while polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [17][18]. - PX and PTA are in the maintenance season, with short - term valuation support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil. For ethylene glycol, the focus is on whether the inventory reduction expectation can be realized [20][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose by $2.33, or 4.02%, to $60.28; Brent main crude oil futures rose by $2.17, or 3.56%, to $63.12; INE main crude oil futures fell by 7.20 yuan, or 1.54% [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Singapore ESG weekly oil product data showed that gasoline inventories increased by 0.22 million barrels to 13.43 million barrels, a 1.63% increase; diesel inventories increased by 0.18 million barrels to 8.91 million barrels, a 2.05% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.93 million barrels to 20.54 million barrels, an 8.59% decrease; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.54 million barrels to 42.88 million barrels, a 3.46% decrease [1]. 3.2 Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 23 yuan/ton to 2216 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell by 42 yuan/ton, with a basis of +164 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic enterprise start - up rates are gradually rising, and production is at a historically high level. Supply will continue to increase, imports will rise, and traditional demand will weaken [3]. - **Profit**: Enterprise profits have declined due to weak spot prices but remain at a high level overall. Future profits are expected to shift downstream, and production profits are expected to be further compressed [3]. - **Strategy**: Focus on short - selling on rallies for single - sided trading, pay attention to reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 spread, and look for long - position opportunities for the 09 contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. 3.3 Urea - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 09 contract fell by 4 yuan/ton to 1882 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged, with a basis of +18 [5]. - **Policy and Market**: The fertilizer export symposium pointed out that May - September is the fertilizer export window, and urea exports to India are prohibited. The total fertilizer export volume should not exceed the 2023 level. It is likely that partial exports will be gradually liberalized, but the intensity will be limited [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is gradually increasing, and the domestic market is in the peak season for summer top - dressing demand. Exports are highly uncertain [5]. - **Strategy**: Traders with long positions at low levels can continue to hold, while those not in the market should wait for the market sentiment to cool down before considering long positions. The inter - month spread should focus on positive spreads on dips [5]. 3.4 Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices have returned to range - bound trading, showing relative strength among industrial products [8]. - **Supply - Side Policy**: Thailand intends to postpone rubber tapping for one month to counter US tariff threats. If strictly implemented, rubber production is expected to decrease by 20 - 30 tons, but the market anticipates that the actual reduction may be less than 20 tons [9]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Tire factory start - up rates are declining. As of May 8, 2025, the full - steel tire start - up rate in Shandong was 44.75%, down 9.59 percentage points from last week and 4.44 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire start - up rate was 57.98%, down 11.14 percentage points from last week and 18.11 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 135.5 tons, a 0.12% increase [10]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral approach and conduct short - term operations. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [11]. 3.5 Styrene - **Market Quotes**: On May 8, the 06 contract closed at 6936 (-105) yuan/ton, and the Jiangsu spot price was 7140 (-100) yuan/ton, with a basis of +204 (+8) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side maintenance has ended and production is restarting, while demand remains weak. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are declining, and the production plans of white - goods manufacturers are weakening [13]. - **Inventory**: The absolute inventory at ports is at a low level, and inventory reduction this week may limit the decline in styrene prices [13]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [13]. 3.6 PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell by 37 yuan to 4839 yuan, and the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4660 (-40) yuan/ton, with a basis of -179 (-3) yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The overall start - up rate of PVC is 79.3%, a 0.7% week - on - week increase. The downstream start - up rate is 43.9%, a 4.2% decrease. Factory inventory is 41.1 tons (-0.9), and social inventory is 64 tons (-4.8) [15]. - **Cost and Profit**: Cost remains stable, and the profit pressure of integrated enterprises is high. There are still many maintenance plans for calcium - carbide - based production facilities [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, although inventory is being reduced rapidly, the supply - demand situation is weak. Further inventory reduction depends on maintenance intensity and exports. PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. 3.7 Polyolefins 3.7.1 Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decrease, and the spot price was 7335 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan decrease, with a basis of 319 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan weakening [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the second quarter, new production capacity on the supply side is large, and the supply side may face pressure. The seasonal off - season is approaching, and demand for agricultural films is decreasing [17]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 57.54 tons, a 16.14 - ton increase, and trader inventory is 6.06 tons, a 0.75 - ton increase [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the downward trend is dominated by supply - side production capacity start - up. In the medium and long term, only a 50 - ton ExxonMobil No. 3 device is expected to start production in May, and prices are expected to remain volatile [17]. 3.7.2 Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: Futures prices are falling. The main contract closed at 6985 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan decrease, and the spot price remained unchanged at 7280 yuan/ton, with a basis of 295 yuan/ton, a 44 - yuan strengthening [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, there is no new production capacity on the supply side, and maintenance is at a high level. The downstream start - up rate is expected to decline seasonally [18]. - **Inventory**: Production enterprise inventory is 67.64 tons, an 11.16 - ton increase; trader inventory is 14.27 tons, a 1.32 - ton increase; and port inventory is 7.79 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase [18]. - **Outlook**: Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias in May [18]. 3.8 PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol 3.8.1 PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose by 116 yuan to 6404 yuan, and PX CFR rose by 10 dollars to 778 dollars, with a basis of 59 yuan (-27) and a 9 - 1 spread of 70 yuan (+34) [19][20]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PX is still in the maintenance season. Chinese PX operating rate is 73%, and Asian operating rate is 67.9%. There are device restarts and maintenance [20]. - **Inventory and Import**: In April, South Korea's PX exports to China were 39 tons, a 9 - ton increase. Inventory at the end of March was 468 tons, unchanged month - on - month [20]. - **Valuation and Cost**: PXN is 206 dollars (+13), and naphtha crack spread is 115 dollars (+15) [20]. - **Outlook**: In the second quarter, domestic inventory is expected to continue to decline. The terminal textile and clothing orders are weak, and the industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure. However, short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. The short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [20]. 3.8.2 PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose by 80 yuan to 4546 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 50 yuan to 4615 yuan, with a basis of 120 yuan (+12) and a 9 - 1 spread of 64 yuan (+62) [21]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: PTA is in the maintenance season, with an operating rate of 70.3%, a 7.4% decrease. There are device restarts and maintenance [21]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [21]. - **Inventory**: On May 6, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 254.2 tons, a 14.7 - ton decrease [21]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Spot processing fee decreased by 8 yuan to 375 yuan, and on - paper processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 345 yuan [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry faces medium - term negative feedback pressure, but short - term terminal restocking has alleviated polyester inventory pressure, and the risk of negative feedback is postponed. PTA short - term valuation has support, but the upside of absolute prices is limited by weak crude oil [21]. 3.8.3 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose by 23 yuan to 4222 yuan, and the East China spot price rose by 7 yuan to 4262 yuan, with a basis of 70 yuan (+14) and a 9 - 1 spread of -7 yuan (+15) [22]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: The ethylene glycol operating rate is 69%, a 0.6% increase. There are device restarts, maintenance, and production - rate adjustments [22]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The downstream operating rate is 94%, a 0.6% increase. The terminal draw - texturing and weaving machine operating rates are rising [22]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 79 tons, a 1 - ton decrease [22]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based production profit is -529 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production profit is -673 yuan, and coal - based production profit is 966 yuan. Cost remains stable [22]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage, but the actual inventory - reduction extent is limited due to high hidden inventory. The industry faces medium - term negative feedback risk, and the focus is on whether the inventory - reduction expectation can be realized [22].