1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term volatile rating for the glass industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - world demand" (real estate downturn + seasonal off - season), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the disk to rebound. Although policies provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. With the approaching Spring Festival in February, downstream demand is expected to weaken, and short - term prices may maintain volatile operation, with a possible weakening trend later. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract opened and closed higher today, with an intraday volatile and strong trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band shows a contracting horn, indicating a short - term volatile signal. The intraday pressure is near the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages on the daily line, and the support is near the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume decreased by 415,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 34,986 lots. The intraday high was 1084, the low was 1062, and the closing price was 1072, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.28% compared with the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, prices are mostly stable with some increases, and there is appropriate restocking; in East China, trading has become lighter, and downstream buyers maintain rigid - demand purchases; in Central China, the market is running stably, and middle and downstream buyers are rational, mainly for rigid demand; in South China, except for some flexible transactions, most prices remain stable, and most downstream enterprises are in the process of winding up, with purchases mainly for rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China is 1020, with a basis of - 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, flat compared with the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% week - on - week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, flat compared with the previous week. In January, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, but 1 production line was newly restarted and ignited, and the overall supply pressure has not been significantly relieved [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or - 1.22% week - on - week and + 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand of most enterprises from north to south is gradually winding up [2] - **Import and export**: In December 2025, China's float glass exports were 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton week - on - week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton week - on - week [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is short - term shock [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - world demand" (real estate downturn + seasonal off - season). High inventory is the biggest pressure for the market to rebound. Although anti - involution and the withdrawal of the three - red - line policy for real - estate enterprises provide short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction of glass has not been substantially improved. After entering February and approaching the Spring Festival holiday, downstream demand is expected to weaken further. The short - term price may fluctuate, but there is a possibility of weakening in the later stage. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and cold - repair of production lines [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The main glass contract opened lower today and fluctuated during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a short - term shock signal. The pressure during the session continued to focus on the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages on the daily line, and the support focused on the lower Bollinger Band. The trading volume increased by 77,681 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 72,809 lots. The intraday high was 1087, the low was 1046, and the closing price was 1056, down 15 yuan/ton or 1.4% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the shipment was okay, the price was stable, and the focus was on order closing and pre - holiday collection; in East China, the trading was weakening, and enterprises mainly kept prices stable; in Central China, the market was running stably, and the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises slowed down; in South China, some downstream enterprises stocked up appropriately according to orders and storage capacity, but most still focused on rigid demand [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 36 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 29, the total output of float glass this week was 1.057 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and - 3.375% year - on - year. The industry average operating rate was 71.86%, up 0.24% from the previous week; the industry average capacity utilization rate was 75.7%, unchanged from the previous week (data has been revised since August 31, 2025). In January, 2 production lines were cold - repaired, but 1 production line was newly restarted and ignited, and the overall supply pressure was not significantly relieved [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million heavy boxes, down 652,000 heavy boxes or 1.22% from the previous week and up 21.24% year - on - year. The inventory days were 22.8 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. As the Spring Festival approached, the demand of most enterprises gradually entered the final stage from north to south [2] - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the domestic float glass export was 87,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons or 2.59% from the previous month; the net export was 72,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 497,700 tons or 93.63% compared with the same period last year [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 155.12 yuan/ton, up 3.57 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 68.5 yuan/ton, down 3.39 yuan/ton from the previous week; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was 1.07 yuan/ton, up 2.85 yuan/ton from the previous week [3] Main Logic Summary - The core contradiction of glass is the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak real - world demand". High inventory is the biggest pressure for the market to rebound. The real - estate demand has not improved. Although there is short - term emotional support, the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the possibility of weakening later and changes in macro - policies and cold - repair of production lines [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". The short - term price is easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing an obvious wide - range oscillation pattern. For nickel, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the price, but the rising cost of nickel ore and ferronickel provides some support. For stainless steel, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand [1][3]. Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of Shanghai nickel opened at 145,240 yuan/ton and closed at 147,470 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% compared with the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 783,275 (+378,683) lots, and the open interest was 136,553 (+2,253) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a wide - range oscillating upward trend. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, the risk appetite of global commodities recovered, the non - ferrous sector strengthened as a whole, and capital inflows pushed up the price. LME nickel was strong overnight, providing external support for Shanghai nickel. However, the high inventory of refined nickel suppresses the nickel price, and the demand boost from new energy vehicles is limited [1]. - The nickel ore market remained stable. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the trading atmosphere became calm. The mine side maintained a firm quotation. There was no new tender price on that day, and the FOB tender price of some mines' 1.3% nickel ore was 40 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium rose to 28 - 32 US dollars/wet ton in February, and the supply of nickel ore was tight. The approval progress of the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) was slow [2]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 151,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various brands of refined nickel were stable with a slight increase. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 450 yuan/ton to 7,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 46,854 (+2,032) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 (+132) tons [2]. Strategy - The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 29, 2026, the main contract 2603 of stainless steel opened at 14,500 yuan/ton and closed at 14,585 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,945 (-16,622) lots, and the open interest was 113,676 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel followed Shanghai nickel and showed an oscillating upward trend. The strengthening of Shanghai nickel enhanced the cost support of ferronickel. The significant reduction of Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore quota led to the expectation of supply contraction, and the increase in nickel ore quotation further pushed up the cost, providing bottom support for the stainless steel price. However, the downstream demand was weak, and the actual transaction was light [3][4]. - The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,400 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,350 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 90 to 290 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron was 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point, with no change [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will be enhanced, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is mainly range operation, buying low and selling high, and setting stop - losses strictly. The medium - term strategy is to pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before laying out single - side positions. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

1. Report Sector Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel and stainless steel markets are experiencing a downward trend due to margin policy adjustments. The nickel market is facing a tug - of - war between supply contraction expectations and weak demand, with prices highly volatile in the short term. The stainless steel market's core issue is the balance between cost and demand, and prices are also subject to short - term fluctuations [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 147,100 yuan/ton and closed at 144,370 yuan/ton, a - 1.31% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 404,592 (- 118,804) lots, and the open interest was 27,881 (- 2,279) lots. The price showed a downward trend due to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, high refined nickel inventory, and margin policy adjustments [1] - The nickel ore market is stable after price increases, with a calm trading atmosphere. Indonesian nickel ore supply is tight, and the approval of mining work plans and budgets is slow. The spot price of Jinchuan Group in Shanghai decreased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 151,300 yuan/ton, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands decreased [2] Strategy - The market is divided between supply contraction expectations and weak demand. Short - term prices are easily affected by policies and funds, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The recommended strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 28, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2603 opened at 14,580 yuan/ton and closed at 14,465 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 312,567 (- 16,363) lots, and the open interest was 123,373 (- 4,171) lots. The price showed a weak oscillation pattern due to the approaching Spring Festival, reduced market activity, and seasonal weakening of demand. The supply is still sufficient in the short term, and the inventory decline has slowed down [3][4] - The downstream restocking demand has not been released, and the spot price has decreased with the futures price. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,054.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia is realized and the nickel - iron price continues to rise, the price may maintain a high - level oscillation. If the demand remains weak and the inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure. The short - term strategy is range - bound operations, and the medium - term strategy is to wait for a clear trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, the price is under pressure due to a strong US dollar, high refined nickel inventory, and limited demand from new - energy vehicles, despite cost support from rising nickel ore and nickel - iron prices. The market is in a state of wide - range oscillation, with the short - term price being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment [1]. - For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction lies in the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and nickel - iron prices continue to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventory is high, the price may face downward pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 147,980 yuan/ton and closed at 146,110 yuan/ton, down 1.87% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 523,396 (- 207,084) lots, and the open interest was 40,119 (- 19,164) lots. The strong US durable goods order data strengthened the US dollar index, which suppressed the prices of commodities denominated in US dollars. The London nickel closed down 0.64%, dragging down the opening performance of Shanghai nickel. Additionally, with the approaching Spring Festival, market funds' risk - aversion sentiment increased, and speculative funds gradually left the market, further intensifying the price correction pressure. High refined nickel inventory also put pressure on the nickel price [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After several days of continuous price increases, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, and the market trading atmosphere became calm. Mine owners maintained firm quotes based on previous high - price transactions. Some mines' FOB tender price for 1.3% nickel ore was 39.5 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the nickel ore premium for February was being negotiated, and the benchmark price for the first half of February was expected to rise by 2 - 3 US dollars. The ESDM began to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB), and the supply of Indonesian nickel ore remained tight [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 151,300 yuan/ton, down 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Downstream buyers purchased as needed, and the overall transaction was average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 6,750 yuan/ton, and the premium of imported nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton, with the nickel bean premium at 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,499 (- 18) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,726 ( + 174) tons [2]. Strategy - The market divergence focuses on the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, with no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 27, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,725 yuan/ton and closed at 14,540 yuan/ton, down 1.26%. The market trading and open interest both contracted, showing obvious weak characteristics. The strong US dollar suppressed commodities, and the weakening of London nickel dragged down the cost support of stainless steel. The synchronous decline of Shanghai nickel further transmitted negative sentiment, suppressing the stainless - steel futures market. Fundamentally, the demand side was unable to support price increases, and although some steel mills had maintenance plans, the short - term supply was still sufficient, and the inventory decline slowed down, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot price was slightly adjusted downward but remained at a high level overall. Some downstream stocking demand was released, and the market transaction improved compared with the previous period. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,500 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 14,450 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 110 - 210 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,053.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. The short - term strategy is range - bound operation, buying low and selling high, with strict stop - loss settings. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy and demand changes, and unilateral positions should be arranged after the trend is clear. The unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for spread trading, cross - variety trading, cash - futures arbitrage, or options trading [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, the market divergence lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality", with short - term prices being easily affected by policy news and capital sentiment, showing a wide - range oscillation pattern. For the stainless - steel market, the core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. If the supply contraction in Indonesia materializes and the ferronickel price continues to rise, the cost support will strengthen, and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. If demand remains weak and inventories are high, the price may face downward pressure [2][3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 149,880 yuan/ton and closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, with a 0.25% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 730,480 (-22,360) lots, and the open interest was 59,283 (-9,313) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, wide - range oscillation", rising due to the expected supply contraction in Indonesia and the linkage with LME nickel, but then falling under short - selling pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market remained stable overall. After continuous price increases in previous days, it entered a high - level consolidation stage, with a calmer trading atmosphere and increased wait - and - see sentiment. The mine end maintained firm quotes. In Indonesia, the market price remained stable, and there was an expectation that the February domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) might be further raised due to the rising nickel price [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 157,300 yuan/ton, up 4,600 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 42,517 (450) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,552 (1,824) tons [3]. - **Strategy** - Market divergence is concentrated in the game between "supply contraction expectation" and "weak demand reality". Short - term prices are volatile. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 26, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,645 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 365,984 (+18,855) lots, and the open interest was 155,289 (-4,171) lots. It showed a pattern of "rising and then falling, narrow - range decline", rising at the opening due to the cost - side nickel price but lacking upward momentum due to weak downstream demand and light spot trading [3][4]. - **Spot**: Recently, stainless - steel prices have risen, leading to increased downstream price - aversion sentiment. Actual trading was poor. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 14,550 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was - 140 to - 40 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 7.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,050.0 yuan/nickel point [5]. - **Strategy** - The core contradiction is the balance between cost and demand. Short - term strategy is range - bound operation, high - selling and low - buying with strict stop - loss. Medium - term, pay attention to policy and demand changes and wait for a clear trend before deploying single - side positions. The single - side view is neutral, and no operations are recommended for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices, surpassing 180,000 yuan/ton, is driven by expectations of domestic supply contraction and improving demand dynamics [2][4]. Supply Dynamics - Concerns over supply contraction are heightened due to stricter regulations in the Jiangxi production area, with reports suggesting potential mine shutdowns [4]. - The current weekly production of lithium carbonate is approximately 22,200 tons, a decrease of 388 tons from the previous week, while weekly inventory has also declined by 783 tons to about 108,900 tons [6]. Demand Factors - The continuation of subsidies for new energy vehicles has positively influenced market expectations, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announcing policies to extend subsidies for heavy trucks and buses [5]. - Despite a marginal reduction in subsidy strength, the timing of the policy has improved expectations for demand in the first quarter of 2026 [5]. Market Sentiment - There is a growing divergence in market sentiment, with downstream companies showing limited acceptance of high prices and reduced purchasing enthusiasm [7]. - The current high prices are seen as a potential trigger for previously shut-down production capacities to re-enter the market [7]. Inventory and Pricing Trends - The current inventory structure indicates low levels in the lithium salt plants and downstream sectors, while traders hold higher inventories [6]. - The static inventory days for downstream usage have decreased to 7-8 days, compared to the normal level of around 14 days in 2025, indicating strong demand [6]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is entering a phase of "weak expectations" versus "strong expectations," with the current price levels stimulating supply increases [9]. - The impact of rising lithium carbonate prices on energy storage costs is significant, potentially affecting the profitability of storage projects [8]. - The market is advised to monitor actual demand developments closely, as the current price surge may not be sustainable without continued strong demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to a combination of domestic supply contraction expectations and positive demand trends [2][3]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Concerns over supply contraction are heightened due to stricter regulations and potential production halts in the Jiangxi region, which is a key lithium production area [2]. - Current lithium carbonate weekly production is approximately 22,200 tons, a decrease of 388 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - The inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing, with a weekly inventory of about 108,900 tons, down 783 tons from the previous week, suggesting strong demand despite the supply constraints [4]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The continuation of subsidies for new energy vehicles has improved market expectations, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announcing policies that maintain previous subsidy levels for heavy trucks and buses [3]. - Strong orders in the energy storage sector, combined with adjustments to export tax rebates for battery products, are expected to support the lithium carbonate market in the early months of the year [3]. - Downstream demand remains robust, with no significant signs of weakness during the traditional "off-season," as indicated by the current low inventory levels [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Trends - There is a growing divergence in market sentiment, with downstream companies showing limited acceptance of high prices and a cautious approach to purchasing [5]. - The current high prices are seen as a double-edged sword, potentially stimulating the re-entry of previously halted production capacities into the market [5]. - The rising prices of lithium carbonate are expected to impact demand, particularly in the energy storage sector, where costs are more sensitive to price changes [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is entering a phase of "weak expectations" versus "strong expectations," with the current price levels stimulating supply increases while demand needs to be closely monitored [7]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term demand may support prices, the sustainability of this demand and the potential for price stabilization remain uncertain [7]. - The focus will be on the actual realization of demand and the potential for systemic price corrections as the market adjusts to high price levels [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The nickel and stainless - steel sectors in the non - ferrous metals industry are affected by multiple factors, with prices showing different trends. The nickel price is expected to oscillate sharply between 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 14,500 yuan/ton [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 140,000 yuan/ton and closed at 144,200 yuan/ton, up 5.65% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,083,202 (-38,224) lots, and the open interest was 124,148 (+3,553) lots. The price increase was driven by supply contraction expectations, macro - easing, and geopolitical risk premiums, along with the overall rise of non - ferrous and precious metals sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with limited resources. Affected by macro factors, the price was strong. Philippine mines were eager to sell at higher prices. In Indonesia, the February 2026 domestic trade base price was expected to rise by 2.8 - 4.9 dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium was +25, with a range of +25 - 26. Factories might push down the premium due to cost pressure [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 150,600 yuan/ton, up 5,300 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average, with strong reluctance to sell low - priced resources. The spot premiums of refined nickel were stable or rising. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,670 (+814) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 284,562 (-228) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Due to the game between supply contraction expectations and the reality of the off - peak demand season, combined with short - term disturbances from macro sentiment and capital behavior, the price is expected to oscillate sharply between 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on range operations and be cautious when chasing high prices. The strategy for single - side trading is range - based, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Stainless - steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On January 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,870 yuan/ton and closed at 13,855 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 256,679 (-44,151) lots, and the open interest was 128,736 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the rise of LME nickel, the night trading session opened high and moved high, and the daily trading session was suppressed by weak demand, with the price gradually falling and oscillating between 13,800 - 13,880 yuan/ton in the afternoon [3]. - **Spot**: The futures price increase drove the spot price up, but downstream buyers were reluctant to buy at high prices, resulting in poor inquiry and trading. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,900 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,775 (+50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 115 - 315 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron increased by 10.00 yuan/nickel point to 972.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - The uncertainty of Indonesian policies has a significant impact on the cost of stainless steel, which will be the main short - term price trend logic. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 14,500 yuan/ton. However, the dismal spot trading may suppress price rebounds. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4].

Market Overview - The thermal coal market is characterized by a stalemate between supply-side price support and weak demand response, with supply gradually recovering and port inventories decreasing, but actual transactions remain light due to high inventory levels at power plants and weak procurement from non-electric sectors [1][2][4] Supply Side - Main production areas are gradually resuming operations, with prices showing differentiation; some high-quality coal mines have raised prices by 5-10 yuan/ton due to slight demand recovery, while overall market activity remains low [2] - Port inventories have decreased to 28.37 million tons, down 120,000 tons day-on-day, with trade merchants reluctant to sell at low prices due to ongoing cost disadvantages, particularly for low-sulfur coal types [3] Demand Side - Daily coal consumption at power plants has slightly increased to 4.515 million tons, up 159,000 tons, but total inventory remains high at 110 million tons, limiting the need for large-scale procurement [4] - Non-electric sector demand is weak, with limited increases in coal usage from industries like cement and chemicals, leading to a cautious procurement stance [4] - Weather conditions are expected to bring some marginal increases in consumption, but overall temperatures are close to seasonal averages, limiting significant spikes in coal usage [4] Import Coal - Indonesian coal prices have risen to FOB $49-50 per ton due to export restrictions, while Australian coal prices are at FOB $77-78 per ton, with high shipping costs narrowing the price gap with domestic coal [5][6] - The terminal's acceptance of high-priced imported coal is low, with procurement focused on future contracts [7] Market Dynamics and Outlook - The current core contradiction in the market is between expectations of supply contraction and the reality of high inventories, with structural shortages in low-sulfur coal types but difficulties in trading ordinary coal types [8] - The market is in a phase of "weak reality and strong expectations," with no strong drivers to break the current balance; short-term coal prices are expected to remain volatile with limited upward movement until inventories decrease significantly [9]