Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The recent steel price increase is mainly driven by coal policies, with little change in the steel supply - demand situation. Later, focus on tariff interference in August and the impact of coking coal fluctuations on steel. After the weekend decline, the steel price may fluctuate downward on Monday, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and expect the steel price to enter an oscillatory pattern [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, have generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3380 to 3430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of steel billets and slab billets have changed, and the costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions have also fluctuated. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 7 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 9 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1% to 242.6 tons, the output of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1% to 867.0 tons, the rebar output increased by 1.4% to 212.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 1.1% to 317.5 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 0.1% to 1336.5 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.9% to 538.6 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 0.7% to 345.2 tons [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 5.2% to 11.7 tons, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 868.1 tons, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% to 216.6 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% to 315.2 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week. In the future, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices and switch to short - selling operations [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has also fluctuated significantly. For example, the basis of PB fines in the 09 contract decreased by 63.4% [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 10.9% to 2371.2 tons, the global weekly shipping volume increased by 4.1% to 3109.1 tons, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 tons [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1% to 242.2 tons, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.4% to 315.2 tons, the national monthly pig iron output increased by 2.1% to 7411.4 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output increased by 0.6% to 8654.5 tons [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8885.2 tons, and the number of available days of inventory for 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% to 21.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The coking coal futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, and the spot price increased. There are still expectations of multiple rounds of price increases in the future. For coke, the spot price is in an upward trend, and the futures price premium provides hedging opportunities. It is recommended to conduct hedging operations at high prices, take profit on long positions, and carry out positive spread arbitrage operations for both coking coal and coke, while being vigilant about exchange intervention [6]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke products in different regions and contracts, such as Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and the 09 contract of coke, have increased. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke increased by 4.3% to 1246 yuan/ton [6]. - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal products, including Shanxi warehouse - receipt coking coal and Mongolian coking coal warehouse - receipt, have also increased. For instance, the price of Shanxi warehouse - receipt coking coal increased by 4.5% to 1150 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.6% to 64.6 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1% to 47.2 tons. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1% to 242.2 tons, and the demand for coke is affected by the operation of steel mills [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.8% to 918.2 tons, the coking plant's coke inventory decreased by 8.5% to 80.1 tons, and the steel mill's coke inventory increased slightly. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased, while the coking coal inventory of coking plants and steel mills increased [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 10.2% to - 5.5 tons [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The rise of steel is mainly policy - driven. After the confirmation of the anti - involution expectation in the coal industry on the 22nd, it is expected that ferrous metals will continue to be strong. Considering the short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant and the market sentiment has not fully fermented, it is recommended to avoid short positions and hold long positions [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some steel products have changed. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price of hot - rolled coil spot in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The prices of different contracts of steel also showed fluctuations [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel production processes such as steel billet, electric furnace, and converter have changed. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, while the profits of threaded steel in some regions increased [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.1%. The inventory of some steel products such as threaded steel decreased, while the inventory of hot - rolled coils increased [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 22.6%, the apparent demand for threaded steel increased by 5.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 2.6% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 contract of iron ore showed a volatile downward trend. In the short - term, iron ore will oscillate. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions at high levels and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [4]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of iron ore and their spreads showed small fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder increased by 0.3%, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.0% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline slightly. The demand side shows high - level pig iron production, and the terminal demand is strong in the off - season [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased, and the available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The coke futures rose strongly, and the spot market improved with multiple rounds of price increase expectations. The coking coal futures also rose strongly, and the spot market continued to rise. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions of coke at high levels, adopt the strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore for coke, and hold long positions of coking coal and gradually reduce them at high levels, and adopt the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore for coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The prices of coke and coking coal and their spreads changed. For example, the price of Shanxi first - class wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 4.5% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of coke was affected by factors such as slow coal mine复产 and corporate losses, and the demand increased due to the resumption of blast furnaces. The supply of coking coal was in short supply, and the demand increased due to the high - level pig iron production [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke decreased in some links and increased in others, showing an overall medium - level state. The inventory of coking coal decreased significantly in mines, ports, and other places, and the inventory of downstream increased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is mainly influenced by domestic macro - policies. The release of the Politburo meeting announcement and the expiration of overseas tariff extension on August 12 are important time nodes. The supply - side policies of traditional industries are emerging, and the expectation of infrastructure driving economic growth is strengthened. The market sentiment is high, and it should be treated with a bullish mindset in the short term, but also beware of callback risks if the market accelerates [4] - For coking coal, the resumption of mining operations is less than expected, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. The inventory is continuously transferred from mines to downstream. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon. The demand for coke is strong, and the overall supply - demand gap is widening [4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The resumption of mining operations is less than expected. The operating rate of 523 mines is 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.31% (-0.54). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61% (+0.71) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The refined coal inventory of 523 mines is 339.07 million tons (-38.11), the refined coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75), and the port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [2] Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1029 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract price is 1198.5 yuan/ton (+63), the basis is - 149.5 yuan/ton (-63), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 66 yuan/ton (-6) [1] Coke Supply and Demand - The demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61% (+0.71), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [3] Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1320 yuan/ton (+0), the active contract price is 1735 yuan/ton (+27.5), the basis is - 316 yuan/ton (-27.5), and the 9 - 1 monthly spread is - 50.5 yuan/ton (-15). The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon [3] Strategy Recommendations - In general, take a bullish approach in the short term, but beware of callback risks if the market accelerates. For coking coal, the resumption of mining operations is less than expected, and downstream replenishment is active. For coke, the second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon. If steel prices continue to rise, the industrial chain profit is expected to be transmitted upstream [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish rating for both coke and coking coal [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is mainly influenced by domestic macro - policies. The release of the Politburo meeting notice and the expiration of overseas tariff extension on August 12 are important time points. In the short - term, a bullish approach is recommended, but beware of callback risks if the market accelerates [5] - For coking coal, mine production recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. Inventory is shifting from mines to downstream. For coke, the first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further increases. The overall supply - demand of coke is tight, and if steel prices continue to rise, industrial chain profits may be transmitted upstream [6] - The news of the National Energy Administration's verification of coal mine over - production has heated up the market. The market sentiment is positive, and the monthly spread has started to go into positive arbitrage, indicating a reversal of industrial expectations [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices have increased, and futures are rising rapidly. Mongolian 5 prime coking coal is reported at 1029 yuan/ton (+0), and the active contract is reported at 1135.5 yuan/ton (+87). The basis is - 86.5 yuan/ton (-87), and the September - January spread is - 60 yuan/ton (+28.5) [2] 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production recovery is below expectations. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.85% (+0.53) [2] 3.1.3 Demand - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18), showing flat demand [2] 3.1.4 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 339.07 million tons (-38.11), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75), and the port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [3] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices have increased, and futures are rising rapidly. The quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is reported at 1320 yuan/ton (+50), and the active contract is reported at 1707.5 yuan/ton (+10). The basis is - 288 yuan/ton (+43.76), and the September - January spread is - 35.5 yuan/ton (+19) [4] 3.2.2 Supply - The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18), and supply recovery is limited due to high raw material costs and delayed price increases [4][6] 3.2.3 Demand - Demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [4] 3.2.4 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, and downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for both coke and coking coal [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is currently dominated by the expectation of domestic supply - side policies. Before August 12th, the market is mainly focused on risk prevention. With the upcoming release of the steady - growth plan for ten key industries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, market sentiment has been boosted. In the short term, a bullish approach can be taken, but the risk of a callback should be watched [4]. - For coking coal, the mine output recovery is slow, while downstream replenishment enthusiasm is high. The inventory is shifting from mines to downstream. For coke, the first round of spot price increases has been implemented, and there are expectations for further increases. The supply - demand gap for coke is widening. If steel prices continue to rise, the industrial chain profits may be transmitted upstream [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Related News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that a steady - growth plan for ten key industries, including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, is即将出台 [1]. - On July 19th, the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project officially started, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, six times that of the Three Gorges Project [1]. 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price and Basis - The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is reported at 1,008 yuan/ton (+58). The active contract is reported at 1,006 yuan/ton (+80). The basis is 22 yuan/ton (-22), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 50 yuan/ton (-0.5) [1]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - The production recovery at the mine end is slower than expected, while demand remains flat. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 86.07% (+0.55), and the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 62.85% (+0.53). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18) [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, while downstream inventory is increasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 339.07 million tons (-38.11), and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 191.54 million tons (-5.53). The inventory of 247 steel mills is 791.1 million tons (+8.17), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 790.19 million tons (+37.75). The port inventory is 321.5 million tons (-0.14) [2]. 3.3 Coke 3.3.1 Price and Basis - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1,270 yuan/ton (+0), and the second - round spot price increase has started. The active contract is reported at 1,603 yuan/ton (+85). The basis is - 237 yuan/ton (-85), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 51 yuan/ton (-6) [3]. 3.3.2 Supply and Demand - Demand has increased more than expected, and the supply - demand gap has widened. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 72.9% (+0.18). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.89% (+0.99), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.44 million tons (+2.63) [3]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is decreasing, while downstream inventory is increasing. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 55.55 million tons (-4.03), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 638.99 million tons (+1.19), and the port inventory is 199.11 million tons (-0.97) [3]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, a bullish approach can be taken, but if the market accelerates, the risk of a callback should be watched. For J09 and JM09, it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and re - enter the market on pullbacks [4][5].

期货热点追踪 政策提振终端走强，纯碱期货创两月新高，夜盘能否持续上涨？机构分析指出，纯碱供需形势较差，但 市场还在交易供给侧政策的预期阶段，短期价格偏强。 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Steel - The rise of ferrous metals since June was due to environmental inspections on coking coal leading to production cuts and a rebound in coking coal prices, along with resilient off - season demand for steel and low inventory levels. In July, the "anti - involution" trading improved market sentiment, and with marginal improvements in industry supply - demand and positive market sentiment, ferrous metals rose strongly. High - frequency data shows off - season demand resilience, high steel mill production, and raw material inventory de - stocking due to marginal supply decline. Later, a marginal increase in inventory would require coking coal production recovery or a decline in steel demand. Macroscopically, there is good sentiment for commodity buying under the expectation of supply - side contraction. The resistance levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils at around 3100 and 3270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels are at 3250 and 3400 yuan [1] Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore 09 contract rose strongly. Globally, the shipping volume decreased slightly, but arrivals at 45 ports increased slightly. Future arrivals are expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, after the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan on July 15, iron - making water production rebounded significantly, and steel exports remained strong, providing support. Port inventory increased slightly, while steel mill equity ore inventory decreased rapidly. In the future, iron - making water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. With the expected introduction of a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries and positive sentiment from the "anti - involution" meeting, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The strategy is to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke - Last week, coke futures fluctuated upwards, and the first round of spot price increases was implemented. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market expected an improvement, and mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases, which were accepted by mainstream steel mills on the 17th. There is still an expectation of further price increases this week. On the supply side, some coal mines and coking plants resumed production after the inspection team left, but production was difficult to increase due to losses. On the demand side, iron - making water production increased after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, coking plant and port inventories decreased, while steel mill inventories increased. Due to low prices, cost - push and steel mill restocking demand are favorable for future coke price increases. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations as the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot market generally rebounded. Domestic coking coal auctions improved, and most coal mines saw better sales. Although coal mines resumed production after the inspection team left, overall production recovery was slow due to strong sales. Imported coking coal prices rebounded slightly, and port transactions improved. On the demand side, coking plant operations increased slightly, and iron - making water production rebounded rapidly after the lifting of restrictions in Tangshan. Steel mills and coking plants increased their restocking efforts. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventory decreased from a high level, port inventory increased, and downstream inventory increased from a low level. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in East China rose from 3200 to 3220 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China rose from 3290 to 3320 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits for hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions showed declines, such as a 41 - yuan decline in East China rebar profit [1] Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 4.5 to 868.2, a 0.5% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.9 to 1337.7, a 0.1% decrease [1] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.3 to 206.2, a 6.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 1.3 to 323.8, a 0.4% increase [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also showed significant increases. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 25.2 to 34.5, a 36.9% increase [4] Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 178.2 to 2662.1, a 7.2% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 7.8 to 2987.1, a 0.3% decrease. The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 62.1 to 13785.21, a 0.5% increase, while the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 157.5 to 8822.2, a 1.8% decrease [4] Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the 09 contract at 1518 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decrease, and the 01 contract at 1559 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase. The first round of spot price increases of 50/55 yuan/ton was implemented [6] Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease. The total coke inventory decreased by 5.3 to 925.7, a 0.64% decrease [6] Supply and Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 1.2 to - 6.1, a 20.4% decrease [6] Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 09 contract rising by 8 to 926, a 0.8% increase, and the 01 contract rising by 8 to 976, a 0.84% increase. Spot prices generally increased [6] Production and Inventory - The raw coal production of sample coal mines decreased by 1.6 to 866.6, a 0.2% decrease, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.1 to 442.4, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei coal mines decreased by 18.3 to 158.1, a 10.3% decrease [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend yesterday. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 47 ports increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline. The iron - water production decreased due to steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the strong steel export provides some support. In July, the iron - water production will continue to decline, and the steel mill profit will improve. The short - term iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [1] - For coke, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market bottomed out, and mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase. The supply is expected to increase as some coal mines resume production, but the production is difficult to boost due to losses. The demand may decline as Tangshan conducts environmental protection production restrictions, and the iron - water production is expected to be around 238 tons per day in July. The inventory is at a medium level, and it is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall spot market is in a bottom - rebound trend. The supply is expected to increase but the overall production recovery is slow, and the supply is still in short supply. The demand decreased as the coking and blast furnace operations declined slightly. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of most powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1] - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index also increased slightly [1] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1] Demand - The average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons, the 45 - port average daily dredging volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 3.0% and 3.9% respectively [1] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.74% and 0.54% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the J09 - J01 spread decreased. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [2] Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [2] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly by 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84%, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and port inventory increased [2] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 2 [2] Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of sample coal mines increased by 0.34% and 0.3% respectively [2] Demand - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5%, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, port inventory increased, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the steel industry, on July 15, 2025, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend. The weekly data indicated that the apparent demand was in a seasonal decline, production followed the decline in demand, and inventory remained stable. In the second half of the year, demand is likely to decline, and the supply remains abundant, lacking strong price - driving forces. Currently, the low inventory and improved market sentiment support valuation - repair trading, but the actual demand has limited upward potential. The next macro - observation window is the Politburo meeting at the end of July. For operation, observe whether the current prices of rebar at 3100 and hot - rolled coils at 3300 can be effectively broken through, and if so, focus on the next pressure levels of 3220 (rebar) and 3350 (hot - rolled coils) [1]. - For the iron ore industry, on July 14, 2025, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Last week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. The demand side was affected by steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, with molten iron production declining from its peak. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and short - term molten iron shows resilience. In the future, molten iron production in July is expected to continue to decline, and steel mill profits will improve. Short - term iron ore is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips for the iron ore 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [4]. - For the coke industry, on July 14, 2025, the coke futures oscillated strongly, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward trend. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations improved. Mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase, which is expected to be implemented later. The supply side may face difficulties in increasing production due to enterprise losses, and the demand side is affected by environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan, with molten iron production reaching a peak and starting to decline. The inventory is at a medium level, and downstream steel mills' active restocking demand is beneficial for future price increases. It is recommended to conduct hedging for the coke 2601 contract on rallies, buy on dips for the coke 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. - For the coking coal industry, on July 14, 2025, the coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall coal mine production recovered slowly, remaining in short supply. Imported coal showed different trends, with Mongolian coal prices rebounding slightly and seaborne coal prices rising. The demand side saw a slight decline in coking and blast furnace operations, but the downstream restocking intensity increased. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to buy on dips for the coking coal 2509 contract and conduct 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3210, 3190, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3176, 3138, and 3170 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 4, 5, and 9 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3300, 3200, and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The prices of hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3287, 3276, and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6, 3, and 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3333 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3058 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1]. - The profits of East China, North China, and South China rebar were 160, 130, and 270 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 27, 1, and 47 yuan. The profits of East China, North China, and South China hot - rolled coils were 240, 150, and 230 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 17, 17, and 7 yuan [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons (- 0.5%) compared to the previous value. The production of five major steel products was 872.7 tons, a decrease of 12.4 tons (- 1.4%) [1]. - The inventory of five major steel products was 1339.6 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons (0.0%); the rebar inventory was 540.4 tons, a decrease of 4.8 tons (- 0.9%); the hot - rolled coil inventory was 345.6 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons (0.2%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume was 10.6 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons (5.0%). The apparent demand for five major steel products was 873.1 tons, a decrease of 12.2 tons (- 1.4%); the apparent demand for rebar was 221.5 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons (- 1.5%); the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 322.5 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines were 768.2, 794.2, 804.0, and 801.5 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 2.2 yuan/ton. The 09 - contract basis of these four types of iron ore decreased significantly, with decreases of - 47.3 yuan/ton [4]. - The 5 - 9 spread was - 49.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton (- 4.3%); the 9 - 1 spread was 30.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton (9.1%); the 1 - 5 spread was 19.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton (- 2.6%) [4]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2662.1 tons, an increase of 178.2 tons (7.2%); the global weekly shipment volume was 2987.1 tons, a decrease of 7.8 tons (- 0.3%); the national monthly import volume was 9813 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. - The weekly average daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills was 239.8 tons, a decrease of 1.0 tons (- 0.4%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 319.5 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons (0.1%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 56.8 tons (- 0.4%) compared to Monday of the previous week; the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8979.6 tons, an increase of 61.1 tons (0.7%); the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills was 20.0 days, an increase of 1.0 days (5.3%) [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged at 1094 and 1270 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of coke 09 and 01 contracts were 1526 and 1569 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 119 and - 163 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 6 and 21 yuan/ton. The J09 - J01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants was 64.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.4%); the daily average production of 247 steel mills was 47.2 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons (- 0.6%) [6]. - The total coke inventory was 931.0 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 93.1 tons, a decrease of 9.0 tons (- 8.84%); the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.8 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons (0.0%); the port inventory was 200.1 tons, an increase of 9.0 tons (4.7%) [6]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) and coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) were 1020 and 894 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0 and 5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal 09 and 01 contracts were 920 and 938 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7 and 18 yuan/ton [6]. - The 09 and 01 bases were - 26 and - 70 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 2 and 13 yuan/ton. The JM09 - JM01 spread was - 44 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton [6]. Production and Inventory - The weekly raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines was 868.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons (0.34%); the weekly clean coal production was 443.5 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons (0.34%) [6]. - The Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory was 176.4 tons, a decrease of 14.3 tons (- 7.5%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 892.4 tons, an increase of 44.2 tons (5.24%); the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.9 tons, a decrease of 6.7 tons (- 0.8%); the port inventory was 304.3 tons, an increase of 17.4 tons [6].

国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 刘豫武 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 | liuyuwu@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：低估值叠加政策驱动，钢价小幅上涨 2、铁矿石观点：行业预期改善，原料估值提升 3、煤焦：焦炭一轮提涨预期，宽幅震荡 4、铁合金观点：宏观与基本面博弈，合金价格跟随板块震荡 Special report on Guot ...