格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.78%报 4126.3 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.50%报 51.08 美 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.45%报 945.76 元/克，沪银涨 0.76%报 12103 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 11 月 25 日，全球最大的黄金 ETF SPDR Gold Trust 持仓量为 1040.86 吨， 较前一个交易日维持不变。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 增加 70.52 吨，当前持仓量为 15582.33 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 84.9% ...

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices have surged due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has strengthened market optimism regarding economic recovery and supported oil demand [3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On the previous day, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose by 1.57%, closing at $58.88 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.42%, closing at $62.73 per barrel [3] - As of the latest update, WTI crude oil is reported at $58.72 per barrel, reflecting a slight decline of 0.29% [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Analysts suggest that any signs of a ceasefire or agreement in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations could accelerate a price drop, while the possibility of continued conflict may keep geopolitical risk premiums supporting higher oil prices [3] - Ukrainian officials have indicated that the previous 28-point peace plan is no longer valid, and a new 19-point peace plan has been drafted, leaving the most sensitive political aspects for the presidents of both countries to decide [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - Overall, international oil prices are expected to remain volatile as the market awaits developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, with potential for price declines in the current round of oil price adjustments [4] - The next round of oil price adjustments is scheduled for December 8 at 24:00 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, PX and PTA are in range - bound oscillations, and ethylene glycol should be treated with a short - term adjustment mindset. In the long - term, PX and PTA are relatively strong, while ethylene glycol is under pressure. For methanol, it may continue to oscillate downward in the short - term and has the potential to rebound in the long - term if signals are positive. Plastic may continue to oscillate in a low - level range in the short - term and show a weak trend in the long - term [30][57][59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil News - The Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes show that most officials oppose further rate cuts in December. The non - release of the October non - farm payroll report weakens the basis for rate cuts, pushing the US dollar index up and pressuring crude oil prices. The 9 - month non - farm payroll data shows a strong job market, increasing internal differences in the Fed. The US is approaching a "major breakthrough" in a framework agreement to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. India's Reliance Industries stops importing Russian crude. US crude production rises, and the Trump administration plans to expand offshore oil and gas exploration. US crude inventories decline, while gasoline and distillate inventories increase [5][6] Futures and Spot Prices - WTI crude oil futures price drops slightly by 0.20%, while PX, TA, and PF futures prices decline slightly, and EG and PR futures prices fall more significantly. Spot prices of PX, PTA, and polyester staple fiber increase slightly, while ethylene glycol and polyester bottle chip prices decline [8] Supply and Demand Analysis - **PX**: Domestic supply decreases slightly this week, and Asian supply also drops. Next week, supply is expected to be stable, and processing fees are supported at the bottom [11] - **PTA**: Supply decreases this week due to more device overhauls. Next week, supply will still decrease [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply decreases slightly this week. New device launches and existing device overhauls co - exist, and the supply reduction is limited [16] - **Polyester End**: The weekly average operating rate increases slightly by 0.07 percentage points [17] - **Terminal**: Orders remain sluggish, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms continues to decline [27] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: PX and PTA are in range - bound oscillations, and ethylene glycol is adjusted. Long - term: PX and PTA are relatively strong, and ethylene glycol is under pressure. Key points to watch include the Russia - Ukraine situation, macro - market sentiment, and device operation [29][30] Methanol and Plastic Price Trends - Methanol and plastic futures and spot prices mostly decline. Methanol MA2601 futures price drops by 2.48%, and L2601 plastic futures price falls by 4.02% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: As of November 20, the operating rate is 88.77%, up 1.82 percentage points, and production is 201.42 tons, up 2.09%. Next week, more devices are expected to resume [39] - **Demand**: MTO operating load rebounds slightly, and the overall demand warms up slightly but has limited support [42] - **Inventory**: As of November 19, port inventory is 147.93 tons, down 4.16%, and inland inventory is 35.87 tons, down 2.86%. Inventory is decreasing, but it is still at a high level [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: Methanol may continue to oscillate downward. Long - term: It may rebound if the port inventory inflection point occurs [57] Plastic - **Supply**: As of November 20, the operating rate is 82.71%, down 0.42 percentage points, and production is 67.03 tons, down 0.51%. Next week, the loss of production capacity is expected to be greater [48] - **Demand**: The downstream demand is differentiated and weak. Future demand may decline [51] - **Inventory**: As of November 19, production enterprise inventory is 50.33 tons, down 4.89%, and two - oil enterprise inventory is 42.4 tons, down 5.57%. Inventory is decreasing but is still at a high level [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term: Plastic may continue to oscillate in a low - level range. Long - term: It may show a weak trend [59]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed cautious attitudes towards interest rate cuts in December, putting downward pressure on gold prices [2] - Fed officials, including Collins and Bostic, indicate a high threshold for further rate cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns, with Bostic preferring to maintain rates until clear evidence shows inflation returning to the 2% target [2] - Market liquidity has stabilized following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, supporting precious metals, but the cautious stance on rate cuts has significantly reduced expectations, further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ukraine has claimed to have struck the Russian oil company Novokubyshevsk refinery, marking the latest in a series of attacks on Russian oil production facilities [4] - The Ukrainian military reported explosions and fires in the targeted area but did not specify the extent of the damage; they also updated the results of a previous attack on the Ryazan refinery, indicating damage to two major processing units and a storage tank [4] - The focus in the oil market remains on the escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns over Russian oil supply [5] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market has shown a downward trend, with prices closing lower and trading below the 60/120-day moving averages [7] - There is a divergence in price movement, and attention is on whether a market correction will occur, with support at $4.90 and resistance at $5.01 [7] Group 4: Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index is fluctuating between 24,500 and 25,700, forming a descending triangle pattern [8] - The index is trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, continuing its downward trend, with a key level to watch at 24,600 for potential breakdown [8]

Sector Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The macro news stimulates the market sentiment to be optimistic, and non-ferrous metals generally strengthen. Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rises, LME Aluminum rises, and domestic spot aluminum falls. SHFE Aluminum continues the oscillating upward trend, and the medium-term focus is on the change of spot demand [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - The US Congress is close to reaching an agreement, the government shutdown is expected to end, and China and the US will mutually cancel trade restrictions. The US dollar rises and the RMB slightly falls [4]. - SHFE Aluminum closes at 21,725, and the spot price is 21,480, with a spot - futures discount of -425 points. The spot discount this week remains flat at -30 yuan, and spot trading is poor [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is stable, the alumina inventory rises, the SHFE aluminum inventory slightly decreases, and the spot demand is average. The LME inventory significantly rises, the LME spot discount widens to -13 US dollars, and the overseas spot demand is poor [4]. - The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices rises to 7.59, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [4]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil surges, LME Aluminum slightly rises and trades around 2,880 US dollars. SHFE Aluminum rebounds after hitting a low, slightly rises, approaches a new high, and closes at 21,725, with a strong technical pattern [4]. - The trading volume of SHFE Aluminum decreases and the open interest increases, and the market sentiment is optimistic [4]. Influencing Factors - The hype of anti - involution cools down, and alumina oscillates at a low level. Trade disputes ease, the Russia - Ukraine situation is unclear, and energy prices rise, which strengthen the market sentiment [4]. - After the hype of gold and copper declines, small metals are favored by funds, and the overseas price ratio is significantly higher than the domestic one [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Nov 4 | 7.1352 | -30 | -4 | 7.43 | | Nov 5 | 7.1312 | -20 | -7 | 7.50 | | Nov 6 | 7.1209 | -30 | -7 | 7.52 | | Nov 7 | 7.1251 | -30 | -14 | 7.53 | | Nov 10 | 7.1206 | -30 | -13 | 7.59 | [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a significant decline, approaching the critical support level of $4000 per ounce, influenced by short-term market factors and profit-taking after a substantial price increase [1][4][5]. Price Movement - As of October 22, the London gold price fell by 1.79% to $4037.901 per ounce, with a low of $4023.59 during the trading session [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also dropped by 2.1%, reaching $4051.0 per ounce, with a minimum of $4034.2 [2][3]. Market Analysis - The recent adjustment in gold prices is attributed to crowded trading conditions and geopolitical news disturbances, leading to profit-taking after a $1000 increase since September [4]. - Analysts suggest that the easing of geopolitical tensions and the stabilization of silver markets have contributed to the current price adjustments [3][4]. Future Outlook - Despite the short-term decline, there is optimism for a medium to long-term increase in gold prices due to central bank purchases and rising investment demand [3][4]. - The market is advised to closely monitor developments in US-China trade negotiations, as any positive outcomes could further influence gold prices [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Short - term outlook is bearish, medium - term is sideways, and the reference view is to wait and see. The core logic is the increasing expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the end of the Russia - Ukraine war, leading to strong profit - taking intentions among funds [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, medium - term and intraday outlooks are bullish, and it is considered strong in the long run. The core logic is the recurrence of mine - end disturbances, a rapid increase in capital attention, and the intensification of Sino - US trade fluctuations. Also, there are macro - level positive expectations and supply contractions, although short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress prices [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price: Yesterday, the price of gold fluctuated and stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. New York gold reached above $4100, and Shanghai gold approached 950 yuan [3]. - Market situation: After a sharp short - term decline, the profit - taking intention of previous long - positions rose rapidly. The price of gold fell below the 10 - day moving average, breaking the short - term strong pattern [3]. - News: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th [3]. Copper - Price: Yesterday, the price of copper increased with rising positions, and the main contract price closed above the 86,000 - yuan mark at the end of the session [4]. - Market situation: In the afternoon, the market sentiment improved, with both commodities and stock indices rising. The market has strong positive macro - level expectations for the Fourth Plenary Session. The short - term upward momentum is strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4]. - Factors: Macro - level easing and supply contractions continue to drive up the price of copper, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress the price [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries [2] - President Trump confirmed the cancellation of the upcoming meeting with President Putin, stating that the meeting would not yield results [2] Group 2 - President Putin emphasized that the new U.S. sanctions are unfriendly actions that will not significantly impact the Russian economy [1] - Putin expressed the importance of dialogue over confrontation, reiterating Russia's stance on maintaining communication with the U.S. [1] - In response to Ukraine's potential acquisition of long-range weapons, Putin warned of severe consequences if such weapons are used against Russian territory [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the new U.S. sanctions against Russia are seen as an unfriendly act that will not significantly impact the Russian economy, according to President Putin [1][2] - Putin emphasized the importance of dialogue over confrontation, stating that discussions about the long-term future, including economic cooperation, could provide opportunities for both countries [1] - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries, indicating a continued focus on the energy sector [2] Group 2 - Trump confirmed the cancellation of the planned meeting with Putin, citing that the meeting would not yield results at this time, but expressed intentions to meet in the future [2] - Putin responded to Ukrainian President Zelensky's comments about acquiring long-range weapons, warning that any attack on Russian territory would provoke a severe response from Russia [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Trump's statement that he won't meet Putin soon has made the prospect of the Russia - Ukraine situation uncertain and in a deadlock. Attacks on Russian energy facilities continue, and the attack on Kazakhstan's gas plant will affect its condensate production. However, the fundamental factors driving oil prices down have not reversed, so oil prices will maintain a weak pattern [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light crude oil futures price rose $1.26 to $58.50 per barrel, a 2.2% increase; the December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.27 to $62.59 per barrel, a 2.07% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.65% at 449 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 20, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 20.014 million barrels, an increase of 2.202 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 851,000 barrels to 7.879 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 668,000 barrels to 3.615 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory increased by 2.385 million barrels to 8.52 million barrels [1] - On October 22, Ukraine's armed forces destroyed a military factory in Russia's Mordovia Republic and a refinery in Russia's Dagestan Republic. The military factory in Mordovia is an important production site for anti - infantry mines and related devices, and the refinery in Dagestan provides fuel for the Russian Caspian Fleet [1] - As of the week ending October 18, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 116,865 kiloliters to 10,404,846 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 57,037 kiloliters to 1,620,675 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory increased by 21,278 kiloliters to 2,834,521 kiloliters. The average refinery operating rate was 86.2%, up from 85.9% the previous week [1] Investment Logic - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation due to Trump's statement and continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities, along with the impact on Kazakhstan's condensate production, but the unchanged fundamental factors driving oil prices down lead to a weak oil price outlook [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Additional News - Russia's energy minister said Russia is carrying out a planned attack on Ukraine's energy system [3] - Indonesia's energy minister said the country's biodiesel consumption from January to September reached 10.57 million kiloliters [3]