Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai copper, the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The fundamental situation has no significant change. The market is waiting for new drivers, with support at 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Thursday [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to frequent disturbances at the mine end and the approaching peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and the price is expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, it is recommended to view it as a weak and volatile market due to the weakening cost side [15]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is cooling, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [21]. - For urea, in the short term, it will mainly show a strong and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Urea rose more than 3%, PX and rapeseed meal rose more than 1%. Silicon iron fell more than 3%, and manganese silicon, alumina, soda ash, and eggs fell more than 2%. Stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, while treasury bond futures of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year all rose [6]. - As of 15:21 on August 19, in terms of capital flow, palm oil 2601, glass 2601, and soybean meal 2601 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [8]. Shanghai Copper - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of concentrate copper ore has decreased to a five - year low. The collapse of the El Teniente mine has led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees continue to rise steadily. There is only one smelter with a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production may decline in the later third quarter [10]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. Real estate still drags down demand, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating a weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: As of the week of August 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons compared with the previous week. The spot price of spodumene has been rising, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [11]. - Demand: The market's purchasing sentiment has increased, and there is a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. In the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to the approaching peak season and supply - side disturbances [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus [12]. - Demand: It is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. The inventory of crude oil and diesel has increased, and the overall oil product inventory continues to rise. The economic situation in the United States has raised concerns, which will increase the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter [12]. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%. The estimated production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month but increased by 17.1% year - on - year [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries mostly increased last week, but the national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and rainfall [15]. PP - Supply: The operating rate of PP enterprises is around 84%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has decreased to about 25%. A new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded to 49.35%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is still high. It is expected to enter the peak season soon, and the operating rate of plastic weaving has slightly increased [16]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 82.5%. A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year has been put into operation recently, and the operating rate has slightly decreased [18]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased to 39.47%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. The orders of agricultural films and packaging films have decreased. The consumption off - season has not ended, and the inventory pressure is still high [18]. PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate has increased to 80.33%. New production capacities will be put into production in August, September. The export expectation in the second half of the year has weakened [19][20]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has slightly decreased. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is large [19][20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The supply data has increased this period, the production of clean coal and raw coal has increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal has decreased [21]. - Demand: The profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive, and the production of downstream coke has increased while the inventory has decreased. However, the iron - water production has decreased this period, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The seventh round of coke price increase has started, but there is resistance from downstream customers [21]. Urea - Supply: The production of urea plants increased last week, and there were both shutdowns and restarts this period, with overall narrow fluctuations [22]. - Demand: Domestic demand is insufficient. The compound fertilizer factories are in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating rate has reached a historical high. The melamine operating rate has decreased, and the terminal furniture market is cold. The inventory of urea plants has increased and is at a five - year high [22][23].

Group 1 - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin in Alaska is seen as symbolically significant, aiming to break Russia's international isolation and potentially pave the way for easing sanctions if progress is made [3] - Trump is focusing on achieving a ceasefire and is willing to discuss territorial concessions regarding Ukraine, although no agreements were reached during the meeting [3][5] - European leaders are supporting Ukrainian President Zelensky, who is under pressure from the US to agree to a quick peace deal involving territorial concessions [5] Group 2 - The international oil market is reacting to the uncertainty surrounding the US-Russia meeting, with oil prices experiencing fluctuations due to concerns over trade policies and OPEC+ production increases [7][9] - If negotiations for a peace agreement between the US and Russia progress, there could be a potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which may increase market supply expectations [9] - Current downward risks for the oil market include the continuation of US-Russia negotiations, global economic slowdown, and OPEC+ gradually increasing production [9]

Group 1 - Oil futures rose over 1% amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts, with Brent crude closing at $66.60 per barrel, up 1.14%, and WTI crude rising 0.99% to $63.42 [1] - Ukraine is set to commit to purchasing $100 billion worth of military equipment from the U.S. in exchange for security guarantees following a peace agreement with Russia [4] - The U.S. and European leaders are focused on providing strong security assurances to Ukraine, emphasizing the importance of a united front for peace in the region [4] Group 2 - The market is awaiting clarity on the direction of the Ukraine war, with analysts suggesting that a constructive agreement between the U.S. and Russia could lead to a decrease in oil prices due to increased global supply [5] - There are significant obstacles to a peace agreement that would reintegrate Russian energy products into the market, particularly due to ongoing sanctions and geopolitical tensions [6] - Concerns remain regarding the impact of India's purchase of Russian oil on the Ukraine conflict, as it complicates the supply flow and raises diplomatic tensions [6]

Group 1 - The Shanghai gold futures closed at 777.66 CNY per gram on August 18, with a daily increase of 0.32% and a trading volume of 129,189 contracts [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 773.40 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 4.26 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, is influencing market sentiment regarding gold [1] Group 2 - The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has diminished due to higher-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which recorded the largest increase in three years [2] - Market focus is shifting towards the discussions between Trump and Russian President Putin, with reports of significant progress in their talks [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is currently at 84.6%, down from a previous expectation of 100% before the PPI data release [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price was under pressure, with New York gold falling below the $3,400 mark. The easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia and the Russia-Ukraine situation over the weekend was negative for the gold price. Technically, New York gold was at the high end of the trading range since the second quarter, and there was strong willingness among long positions to liquidate [3][27]. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut may increase as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is positive for the gold price. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 21st to 23rd, and attention can be paid to the speech of Fed Chairman Powell [3][27]. - Overall, the easing of geopolitical tensions puts pressure on the gold price, while the increasing expectation of a US rate cut provides support. It is expected that the gold price will fluctuate weakly [3][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold, but no specific summary of the weekly trend is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From August 8th to August 15th, COMEX gold decreased by 2.21% from $3,458.20 to $3,381.70, COMEX silver decreased by 1.27% from $38.51 to $38.02, SHFE gold main contract decreased by 1.52% from 787.80 to 775.80, and SHFE silver main contract decreased by 0.80% from 9,278.00 to 9,204.00. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42% from 98.26 to 97.85, the 10-year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.07 from 1.88 to 1.95, the S&P 500 increased by 0.94% from 6,389.45 to 6,449.80, and the US crude oil continuous decreased by 0.33% from 63.35 to 63.14. The COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.95% from 89.80 to 88.95, and the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.73% from 84.91 to 84.29. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 5.73 from 959.64 to 965.37, and the iShare Gold ETF increased by 0.68 from 452.61 to 453.29 [8] 2. Gold Price Reached a High and Then Fell - Last week, the gold price was under pressure and declined. On one hand, US President Trump refuted rumors about gold tariffs; on the other hand, the expectation of the US-Russia meeting led to a relaxation of geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the gold price reached a high and then fell, and New York gold was still in the trading range since the second quarter, facing significant technical pressure [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of August 12th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,079 contracts, short positions increased by 3,486 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 7,565 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs, but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16] - Recently, the changes in precious metal ETFs have been relatively small [18] - Last week, the gold-silver ratio decreased as the gold price weakened [21] - Last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased, while the 2-year US Treasury yield remained stable, and the 10-2 year spread widened [22] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, stating that the easing of geopolitical tensions puts pressure on the gold price, while the increasing expectation of a US rate cut provides support. It is expected that the gold price will fluctuate weakly [3][27]

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky communicated with Turkish President Erdogan regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation and peace negotiations, expressing gratitude for Turkey's support of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity [1] - Erdogan emphasized that any negotiations excluding Ukraine would not lead to lasting peace, while Zelensky stated Ukraine is willing to meet in any format to end the violence and war [1] - Turkey is prepared to host a summit involving the leaders of Ukraine, the United States, Russia, and Turkey [1] Group 2 - The discussion included preparations for an important agenda for the upcoming high-level United Nations General Assembly meeting, with a consensus on Turkey's participation [1]

俄罗斯外交部副部长表示，美国的导弹系统开始越发频繁地被部署在可以对俄罗斯安全造成直接影响的 地区，如果这一转变未发生，那俄方将不再采取限制措施。 美联储理事鲍曼表示，劳动力市场的明显疲软超过了未来通胀上升的风险，她预计将在美联储今年剩下 的三次会议上均支持降息。 最新CME"美联储观察"数据显示，9月维持利率不变的概率为9.3%，降息25个基点的概率为90.7%，到 10月维持利率不变的概率为4.5%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 46.5%。 【盘面分析】 8月11日，国内贵金属期货全线飘绿，截止目前，沪金主力报价为781.75元/克，跌幅0.52%，沪银主力 报价为9229元/千克，跌幅0.53%；国际贵金属期全线飘绿，COMEX黄金报价3437.60美元/盎司，跌幅 0.59%，COMEX白银报价38.33美元/盎司，跌幅0.47%。 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2025年8月11日） | 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 787.02 | 788.92 | 780 ...

Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil price fluctuations, while copper and gold prices are expected to rise [2][6] Domestic Demand - Sales of new homes, second-hand homes, and passenger cars are all experiencing a decline in growth rates. In August, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales decreased in volume but increased in price. The market is in a seasonal downturn, compounded by internal competition, with July passenger car sales growth rates for both retail and wholesale declining. The average sales price of home appliances has mostly decreased [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance continue to exceed last year's levels, driven by popular films, with summer box office revenue surpassing 7.7 billion yuan. Tourism consumption remains strong, with hotel occupancy rates rising and revenue per available room increasing, consistently above last year’s figures. Additionally, inbound tourism is performing well, with the Google "China Travel" search index reaching new highs, and international flight operations continuing to rise compared to last year [2] External Demand - The expansion of tariffs on U.S. industries has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S. Former President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, as well as small tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with future rates potentially rising to 250%. Furthermore, a 25% punitive tariff will be applied to Indian purchases of Russian oil [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a decline in CCFI shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput. The growth rate of container bookings from China to the U.S. is decreasing, and shipping volumes continue to decline. Traditional transshipment regions, such as Southeast Asian ports, are also seeing a year-on-year decrease in docking volumes. In June, new orders in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell year-on-year, with transportation equipment manufacturing being a significant drag [3] Production - Weather factors are impacting prices, with high temperatures suppressing demand. However, steel mill profitability is on the rise, and production growth rates for sample steel mills continue to increase. The industry’s self-imposed production cuts have had limited effects, leading to a decrease in rebar prices this week. The glass industry, previously influenced by internal competition, has also seen price declines due to limited changes in fundamentals [4] - Due to typhoons and heavy rainfall, cement shipment rates are low, but national average cement prices have risen this week. However, the direct supply of cement to construction sites has decreased week-on-week, and the funding availability rate for sample construction sites has also declined, indicating overall weak downstream demand [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants has increased this week due to sustained high temperatures, while frequent rainfall has restricted coal production and transportation in major producing areas, leading to a slight decrease in coal market supply and a continued rise in thermal coal prices [5] Prices - Gold and copper prices are rebounding, while oil prices are declining. Weakness in the U.S. labor market has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold prices. A mining accident in Chile, combined with expectations for rate cuts, has driven copper prices upward. Conversely, the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation and continued OPEC+ production increases have put downward pressure on oil prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the evolving dynamics of U.S.-Russia relations, particularly regarding potential meetings between the leaders of the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine [1][2][3] - Trump indicated that a meeting between him and Putin could occur without the necessity of a meeting with Zelensky, shifting the focus to a U.S.-Russia dialogue [1] - Putin expressed a willingness to meet with Trump and acknowledged the need for certain conditions to be met before a meeting with Zelensky could take place [2] Group 2 - Trump set August 8 as a "deadline" for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, warning of new sanctions against Russia if no progress is made [2][3] - The U.S. has already imposed sanctions on 213 vessels related to Russia's oil transport, indicating a strong stance against Russia's circumvention of sanctions [3] - The U.S. is considering additional sanctions against third-party countries purchasing Russian oil, particularly targeting India with a 25% tariff on goods due to its continued oil purchases from Russia [3]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable overall, with some brands experiencing slight declines. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price decreased by 5 yuan per gram to 1007 yuan per gram, which is 1 yuan lower than the highest price among gold stores [1] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold stores has narrowed to 38 yuan per gram [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands on July 15, 2025, show fluctuations, with notable prices including Lao Miao at 1003 yuan per gram (down 2 yuan), and Shanghai China Gold remaining stable at 969 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Platinum Prices - Platinum prices continue to decline, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price dropping by 9 yuan per gram yesterday and an additional 4 yuan today, now priced at 556 yuan per gram [1] Group 3: Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery price has slightly increased by 0.3 yuan per gram, with significant differences in recovery prices among brands. For example, the recovery price for Chow Sang Sang is 768.80 yuan per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang is at 777.70 yuan per gram [2] Group 4: International Gold Market - The international gold market saw a decline due to President Trump's open attitude towards tariff negotiations and a rise in the US dollar index, leading to a closing price of 3343.19 USD per ounce, down 0.35% [4] - As of the latest update, the spot gold price has rebounded to 3364.05 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.62% increase [4] - Market expectations for a 60.1% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are supporting gold prices, with anticipation for the upcoming US CPI data that could further influence these expectations [4]