Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Trump's statement that he won't meet Putin soon has made the prospect of the Russia - Ukraine situation uncertain and in a deadlock. Attacks on Russian energy facilities continue, and the attack on Kazakhstan's gas plant will affect its condensate production. However, the fundamental factors driving oil prices down have not reversed, so oil prices will maintain a weak pattern [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light crude oil futures price rose $1.26 to $58.50 per barrel, a 2.2% increase; the December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.27 to $62.59 per barrel, a 2.07% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.65% at 449 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 20, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 20.014 million barrels, an increase of 2.202 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 851,000 barrels to 7.879 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 668,000 barrels to 3.615 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory increased by 2.385 million barrels to 8.52 million barrels [1] - On October 22, Ukraine's armed forces destroyed a military factory in Russia's Mordovia Republic and a refinery in Russia's Dagestan Republic. The military factory in Mordovia is an important production site for anti - infantry mines and related devices, and the refinery in Dagestan provides fuel for the Russian Caspian Fleet [1] - As of the week ending October 18, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 116,865 kiloliters to 10,404,846 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 57,037 kiloliters to 1,620,675 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory increased by 21,278 kiloliters to 2,834,521 kiloliters. The average refinery operating rate was 86.2%, up from 85.9% the previous week [1] Investment Logic - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation due to Trump's statement and continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities, along with the impact on Kazakhstan's condensate production, but the unchanged fundamental factors driving oil prices down lead to a weak oil price outlook [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Additional News - Russia's energy minister said Russia is carrying out a planned attack on Ukraine's energy system [3] - Indonesia's energy minister said the country's biodiesel consumption from January to September reached 10.57 million kiloliters [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.47%, the S&P 500 remaining flat, and the Nasdaq Composite falling by 0.16% [4] - 3M Company saw an increase of over 7%, while Coca-Cola rose more than 4%, leading the Dow [4] - General Motors surged nearly 15% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings [4] - Beyond Meat, referred to as the "first stock of plant-based meat," skyrocketed over 146%, with a cumulative increase of approximately 600% over the past three trading days [4] - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 0.97%, Alibaba falling nearly 4%, and Bilibili rising nearly 6% [4] Gold Market - As of the end of trading on October 21, spot gold fell by 5.18% to $4,130.41 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 4.94% to $4,144.10 per ounce [5] - Spot gold experienced fluctuations, briefly falling below $4,120 [5] - Year-to-date, spot gold has seen a maximum increase of over 60%, indicating a rare historical trend, suggesting potential wide fluctuations in the gold market in the latter part of Q4 [5] - Multiple factors are expected to influence market trends, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is 98.9%, with a 1.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [5] - The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 98.7%, while the chance of a 75 basis point cut is 0.2% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex dynamics between Russia and the United States, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation, highlighting differing perceptions and statements from both sides [1]. Group 1: Russia's Position - Russian presidential aide Ushakov indicated that Russia will consider signals from the U.S. through both public and private channels [1]. - Ushakov commented on U.S. President Trump's repeated expressions of disappointment towards President Putin, suggesting that the situation is more complicated than it appears [1]. Group 2: U.S. Perspective - During a joint press conference, U.S. President Trump expressed his disappointment with President Putin, stating that he initially thought the Russia-Ukraine issue would be easy to resolve, but it has proven to be quite complex [1]. - Trump mentioned that they will await the results of negotiations involving Ukraine [1].

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market saw declines across major indices, with the Dow Jones down 0.19%, S&P 500 down 0.55%, and Nasdaq down 0.95% [5] - European indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.36% and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.04% [5] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.7%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.45% [5] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Spot gold reached a new high of $3,790 per ounce before retreating to close at $3,764.02, up 0.46% [7] - WTI crude oil rose 2.05% to $63.53 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.81% to $67.22 per barrel [7] - The US dollar index closed at 97.22, down 0.08% [7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that the policy rate remains slightly restrictive, suggesting potential for further rate cuts [10] - The People's Bank of China reported a 5.0% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption for August, amounting to 10,154 billion kilowatt-hours [12]

Group 1 - The recent statements from the UK, Canada, and Australia recognizing Palestine indicate a shift in international relations, with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu planning a response [1] - Venezuela's Vice President confirmed that President Maduro clarified to President Trump that there are no illegal drug activities in Venezuela, highlighting ongoing diplomatic communications [1] - Iran announced a suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to pressure from the UK, France, and Germany to restore sanctions, indicating rising geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2 - Gold experienced significant volatility, with a drop of up to $80 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, but rebounded strongly to close the week positively [2][4] - Silver reached an annual high, with domestic prices for gold and silver showing strong upward trends, indicating robust market interest [2][4] - The simultaneous rise of gold, silver, US stocks, and the dollar index on the same day is a rare occurrence, suggesting diverse capital flows into different markets [4] Group 3 - The largest gold ETF reported an increase of over 18 tons in holdings, marking a record for September, which reflects bullish sentiment towards gold [5] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is seen as a long-term support factor for gold, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine situation [5] - Gold's price action indicates strong support levels at $3660 and $3640, with potential upward targets of $3730, $3750, and even $3800 in the longer term [7]

Group 1 - Russian President Putin signed a decree on September 18 to dismiss Dmitry Kozak from his position as Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration [2] - Dmitry Kozak submitted his resignation voluntarily, having previously served as Russia's special representative for Ukraine policy and Deputy Prime Minister [4] - The dismissal of Kozak may indicate a shift in Russia's approach to its Ukraine policy [2][4] Group 2 - Former US President Trump expressed disappointment in Putin regarding the complexity of the Russia-Ukraine issue, which he initially thought would be easier to resolve [6] - Trump mentioned that if oil prices drop, Putin would have no choice but to end the war [6] - UK Prime Minister Starmer and Trump discussed increasing defense support for Ukraine during their meeting [6] Group 3 - On September 18, international oil prices saw a slight decline, with WTI crude oil down 0.61% to $63.31 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.71% to $66.98 per barrel [7] - The fluctuation in oil prices may impact geopolitical dynamics and funding for military operations [7] Group 4 - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine will receive the first batch of weapons under a new funding plan with the US and European allies, including Patriot missiles and HIMARS [8] - Ukraine has secured over $2 billion in funding for US weapon procurement through NATO's "Ukraine Priority Needs List" (PURL) mechanism, with total commitments expected to reach $3.5 billion by October [8] - NATO allies plan to provide $10 billion worth of military equipment to Ukraine, indicating strong international support [8][9]

斯塔默称，双方在会谈中讨论了如何加大对乌克兰的国防支持。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间18日，英国首相斯塔默与来访的美国总统特朗普在英国首相乡村官邸契克斯别墅举行联合新闻 发布会。 谈及俄乌局势时，特朗普表示，"俄罗斯总统普京让他失望了"，他原以为俄乌问题可能是最容易解决的 问题，但其实它很复杂，他们将拭目以待乌克兰的谈判结果。特朗普称，如果油价下跌，"普京将别无 选择，只能结束战争"。 他还表示，在阿拉斯加与普京的会面不是一个错误。 ...

Group 1 - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed with US President Trump the need for stronger sanctions against Russia and a plan to protect Ukrainian airspace during a phone call after an online meeting in Paris [1] - Zelensky emphasized the importance of applying pressure on Russia through economic measures to achieve "real peace" in the ongoing conflict [1] - The European Commission President von der Leyen announced that 26 countries in the "Volunteer Alliance" committed to providing security guarantees to Ukraine by deploying military forces under a potential ceasefire or peace agreement [1] Group 2 - Trump indicated that he would soon have a conversation with Russian President Putin, highlighting the ongoing "very good communication" between the parties involved [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The investment market has four levels: preserving capital, controlling risk, earning returns, and achieving long-term stable profits [1] - Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that the PCE price index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating steady consumer spending but rising inflationary pressures [1][2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an addition of 75,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.3%, which could influence interest rate expectations and gold prices [2][5] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a "slow but solid" upward trend, with key support at 3,423 and potential resistance at 3,470-3,480 [4][6] - The technical analysis indicates that gold's upward momentum remains strong, and traders are advised to focus on buying on dips [4][7] - The core PCE inflation data has sparked discussions about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which could impact gold prices in the near term [1][2] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen increased volatility, with Brent crude and WTI prices closing at $67.63 and $64.32 per barrel, respectively, influenced by various factors including demand expectations and geopolitical tensions [5][6] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is expected to confirm plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day, which may further affect oil prices [6][7] - Technical analysis suggests that Brent crude faces key support at $60 per barrel, with potential downside risks if this level is breached [6][7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. The revised annualized quarterly rate of the US GDP in the second quarter was 3.3%, exceeding expectations and the previous value, and the weekly initial jobless claims were 229,000, remaining at a low level. Although the economy is resilient, Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor has led to market concerns about the Fed's independence, which dominated market sentiment. International gold and silver are testing the key resistance at the upper edge of the recent sideways range, and once broken, the upward movement may be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the US PCE data tonight [1] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Content Fed - related - Cook officially sued Trump over the dismissal, with Powell also being a defendant. Cook's lawyer said the mortgage dispute may be due to a "paperwork error." A US judge will hold a hearing on Cook's lawsuit against Trump this Friday, and the case is expected to end up in the Supreme Court. Trump - nominated Fed governor nominee Milan is expected to be confirmed before the Fed's September decision. Fed governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting and expects further rate cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. The second - in - command of the IMF said the market still believes in the Fed's independence, but the actual risks cannot be ignored. ECB Governing Council member Rehn said Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence may have a major global impact on financial markets and the real economy [2] Tariff - related - The EU proposed a legislative proposal to cancel some US goods tariffs to encourage the US to lower auto tariffs. India is expected to increase its September imports of Russian oil by 10% - 20% month - on - month, regardless of US tariff threats. US officials said that in the next six months, a unified tariff of $80 - $200 will be imposed on packages sent to the US, and specific tariff rates will be applied thereafter [2] Russia - Ukraine situation - related - German Chancellor Merz said Zelensky and Putin will not meet. US media reported that Europe proposed a 40 - kilometer front - line buffer zone for Russia and Ukraine [2]