能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251121 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 央视记者当地时间11月19日获悉，美国政府正与俄罗斯就结束俄乌冲突的框架协议接近达成"重大突破"，预计最迟本月底、甚至"最快本 周内"完成。据两名知情人士表示，美国已向乌克兰总统泽连斯基发出信号，要求乌方接受一项由美国起草的俄乌停战框架。该框架内容包 括乌克兰放弃部分领土并交出部分武器。据悉，美方将此方案视为结束,冲中突的核心基础，并要求乌克兰接受。 鲍玉虹 从业资讯证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 聚酯板块数据周报 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 周四凌晨美联储公布十月货币政策会议纪要，大多数官员不支持12月进一步隆息，叠加美国劳工部不公布10月非农就业报告与11月合并发布， 削弱了美联储降息的数据依据，推动美元指数强势运行，以美元计价的原油价格持续面临下行压力。 周四晚间美国劳工部发布的9月非农就业数据显示，9月非农新增就业人口达到11.9万，明显高于市场预期，前两月就业人口被大幅下修3.3 万，数据发布后美联储隆息榔率只小幅升至35%，显示出在美国政府关门背景下就业市场仍展 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed cautious attitudes towards interest rate cuts in December, putting downward pressure on gold prices [2] - Fed officials, including Collins and Bostic, indicate a high threshold for further rate cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns, with Bostic preferring to maintain rates until clear evidence shows inflation returning to the 2% target [2] - Market liquidity has stabilized following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, supporting precious metals, but the cautious stance on rate cuts has significantly reduced expectations, further pressuring gold prices [2] Group 2: Oil Market - Ukraine has claimed to have struck the Russian oil company Novokubyshevsk refinery, marking the latest in a series of attacks on Russian oil production facilities [4] - The Ukrainian military reported explosions and fires in the targeted area but did not specify the extent of the damage; they also updated the results of a previous attack on the Ryazan refinery, indicating damage to two major processing units and a storage tank [4] - The focus in the oil market remains on the escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, raising concerns over Russian oil supply [5] Group 3: Copper Market - The copper market has shown a downward trend, with prices closing lower and trading below the 60/120-day moving averages [7] - There is a divergence in price movement, and attention is on whether a market correction will occur, with support at $4.90 and resistance at $5.01 [7] Group 4: Nasdaq Index - The Nasdaq index is fluctuating between 24,500 and 25,700, forming a descending triangle pattern [8] - The index is trading below the 60/120-day moving averages, continuing its downward trend, with a key level to watch at 24,600 for potential breakdown [8]

Sector Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The macro news stimulates the market sentiment to be optimistic, and non-ferrous metals generally strengthen. Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE Aluminum) rises, LME Aluminum rises, and domestic spot aluminum falls. SHFE Aluminum continues the oscillating upward trend, and the medium-term focus is on the change of spot demand [4]. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - The US Congress is close to reaching an agreement, the government shutdown is expected to end, and China and the US will mutually cancel trade restrictions. The US dollar rises and the RMB slightly falls [4]. - SHFE Aluminum closes at 21,725, and the spot price is 21,480, with a spot - futures discount of -425 points. The spot discount this week remains flat at -30 yuan, and spot trading is poor [4]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is stable, the alumina inventory rises, the SHFE aluminum inventory slightly decreases, and the spot demand is average. The LME inventory significantly rises, the LME spot discount widens to -13 US dollars, and the overseas spot demand is poor [4]. - The RMB exchange rate rises significantly this week, and the SHFE - LME ratio of aluminum prices rises to 7.59, with the domestic market outperforming the overseas market [4]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil surges, LME Aluminum slightly rises and trades around 2,880 US dollars. SHFE Aluminum rebounds after hitting a low, slightly rises, approaches a new high, and closes at 21,725, with a strong technical pattern [4]. - The trading volume of SHFE Aluminum decreases and the open interest increases, and the market sentiment is optimistic [4]. Influencing Factors - The hype of anti - involution cools down, and alumina oscillates at a low level. Trade disputes ease, the Russia - Ukraine situation is unclear, and energy prices rise, which strengthen the market sentiment [4]. - After the hype of gold and copper declines, small metals are favored by funds, and the overseas price ratio is significantly higher than the domestic one [4]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium/Discount | LME Aluminum Futures - Spot Difference | Main Contract SHFE - LME Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Nov 4 | 7.1352 | -30 | -4 | 7.43 | | Nov 5 | 7.1312 | -20 | -7 | 7.50 | | Nov 6 | 7.1209 | -30 | -7 | 7.52 | | Nov 7 | 7.1251 | -30 | -14 | 7.53 | | Nov 10 | 7.1206 | -30 | -13 | 7.59 | [5]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing a significant decline, approaching the critical support level of $4000 per ounce, influenced by short-term market factors and profit-taking after a substantial price increase [1][4][5]. Price Movement - As of October 22, the London gold price fell by 1.79% to $4037.901 per ounce, with a low of $4023.59 during the trading session [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also dropped by 2.1%, reaching $4051.0 per ounce, with a minimum of $4034.2 [2][3]. Market Analysis - The recent adjustment in gold prices is attributed to crowded trading conditions and geopolitical news disturbances, leading to profit-taking after a $1000 increase since September [4]. - Analysts suggest that the easing of geopolitical tensions and the stabilization of silver markets have contributed to the current price adjustments [3][4]. Future Outlook - Despite the short-term decline, there is optimism for a medium to long-term increase in gold prices due to central bank purchases and rising investment demand [3][4]. - The market is advised to closely monitor developments in US-China trade negotiations, as any positive outcomes could further influence gold prices [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Short - term outlook is bearish, medium - term is sideways, and the reference view is to wait and see. The core logic is the increasing expectation of Sino - US trade relaxation and the end of the Russia - Ukraine war, leading to strong profit - taking intentions among funds [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, medium - term and intraday outlooks are bullish, and it is considered strong in the long run. The core logic is the recurrence of mine - end disturbances, a rapid increase in capital attention, and the intensification of Sino - US trade fluctuations. Also, there are macro - level positive expectations and supply contractions, although short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress prices [1][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price: Yesterday, the price of gold fluctuated and stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. New York gold reached above $4100, and Shanghai gold approached 950 yuan [3]. - Market situation: After a sharp short - term decline, the profit - taking intention of previous long - positions rose rapidly. The price of gold fell below the 10 - day moving average, breaking the short - term strong pattern [3]. - News: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th [3]. Copper - Price: Yesterday, the price of copper increased with rising positions, and the main contract price closed above the 86,000 - yuan mark at the end of the session [4]. - Market situation: In the afternoon, the market sentiment improved, with both commodities and stock indices rising. The market has strong positive macro - level expectations for the Fourth Plenary Session. The short - term upward momentum is strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [4]. - Factors: Macro - level easing and supply contractions continue to drive up the price of copper, while short - term industrial demand decline and high COMEX inventories may suppress the price [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries [2] - President Trump confirmed the cancellation of the upcoming meeting with President Putin, stating that the meeting would not yield results [2] Group 2 - President Putin emphasized that the new U.S. sanctions are unfriendly actions that will not significantly impact the Russian economy [1] - Putin expressed the importance of dialogue over confrontation, reiterating Russia's stance on maintaining communication with the U.S. [1] - In response to Ukraine's potential acquisition of long-range weapons, Putin warned of severe consequences if such weapons are used against Russian territory [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the new U.S. sanctions against Russia are seen as an unfriendly act that will not significantly impact the Russian economy, according to President Putin [1][2] - Putin emphasized the importance of dialogue over confrontation, stating that discussions about the long-term future, including economic cooperation, could provide opportunities for both countries [1] - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, along with their subsidiaries, indicating a continued focus on the energy sector [2] Group 2 - Trump confirmed the cancellation of the planned meeting with Putin, citing that the meeting would not yield results at this time, but expressed intentions to meet in the future [2] - Putin responded to Ukrainian President Zelensky's comments about acquiring long-range weapons, warning that any attack on Russian territory would provoke a severe response from Russia [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Trump's statement that he won't meet Putin soon has made the prospect of the Russia - Ukraine situation uncertain and in a deadlock. Attacks on Russian energy facilities continue, and the attack on Kazakhstan's gas plant will affect its condensate production. However, the fundamental factors driving oil prices down have not reversed, so oil prices will maintain a weak pattern [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the December - delivery light crude oil futures price rose $1.26 to $58.50 per barrel, a 2.2% increase; the December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.27 to $62.59 per barrel, a 2.07% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.65% at 449 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 20, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 20.014 million barrels, an increase of 2.202 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 851,000 barrels to 7.879 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 668,000 barrels to 3.615 million barrels, and heavy residue fuel oil inventory increased by 2.385 million barrels to 8.52 million barrels [1] - On October 22, Ukraine's armed forces destroyed a military factory in Russia's Mordovia Republic and a refinery in Russia's Dagestan Republic. The military factory in Mordovia is an important production site for anti - infantry mines and related devices, and the refinery in Dagestan provides fuel for the Russian Caspian Fleet [1] - As of the week ending October 18, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased by 116,865 kiloliters to 10,404,846 kiloliters, gasoline inventory increased by 57,037 kiloliters to 1,620,675 kiloliters, and kerosene inventory increased by 21,278 kiloliters to 2,834,521 kiloliters. The average refinery operating rate was 86.2%, up from 85.9% the previous week [1] Investment Logic - The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation due to Trump's statement and continuous attacks on Russian energy facilities, along with the impact on Kazakhstan's condensate production, but the unchanged fundamental factors driving oil prices down lead to a weak oil price outlook [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate weakly; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Additional News - Russia's energy minister said Russia is carrying out a planned attack on Ukraine's energy system [3] - Indonesia's energy minister said the country's biodiesel consumption from January to September reached 10.57 million kiloliters [3]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.47%, the S&P 500 remaining flat, and the Nasdaq Composite falling by 0.16% [4] - 3M Company saw an increase of over 7%, while Coca-Cola rose more than 4%, leading the Dow [4] - General Motors surged nearly 15% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings [4] - Beyond Meat, referred to as the "first stock of plant-based meat," skyrocketed over 146%, with a cumulative increase of approximately 600% over the past three trading days [4] - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropping by 0.97%, Alibaba falling nearly 4%, and Bilibili rising nearly 6% [4] Gold Market - As of the end of trading on October 21, spot gold fell by 5.18% to $4,130.41 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures dropped by 4.94% to $4,144.10 per ounce [5] - Spot gold experienced fluctuations, briefly falling below $4,120 [5] - Year-to-date, spot gold has seen a maximum increase of over 60%, indicating a rare historical trend, suggesting potential wide fluctuations in the gold market in the latter part of Q4 [5] - Multiple factors are expected to influence market trends, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and strong expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is 98.9%, with a 1.1% chance of maintaining the current rate [5] - The probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December is 98.7%, while the chance of a 75 basis point cut is 0.2% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex dynamics between Russia and the United States, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation, highlighting differing perceptions and statements from both sides [1]. Group 1: Russia's Position - Russian presidential aide Ushakov indicated that Russia will consider signals from the U.S. through both public and private channels [1]. - Ushakov commented on U.S. President Trump's repeated expressions of disappointment towards President Putin, suggesting that the situation is more complicated than it appears [1]. Group 2: U.S. Perspective - During a joint press conference, U.S. President Trump expressed his disappointment with President Putin, stating that he initially thought the Russia-Ukraine issue would be easy to resolve, but it has proven to be quite complex [1]. - Trump mentioned that they will await the results of negotiations involving Ukraine [1].