，观望情绪较重。近日锡价宽幅调整，下游逢低采买为主，现货升水上调至600元/吨，国内库存小幅下降 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 。而海外延续去库，LME注销仓单增加。技术面，持仓低位多空分歧，区间宽幅调整，关注270000关口阻 力。操作上，建议暂时观望，参考26.2-27.0。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 266740 | 3850 LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 33250 | -70 | | | 8月-9月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -20 | 10 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 26471 | -162 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 1701 | 611 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2060 | 75 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 7198 | 243 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | ...

6月最后一周以来，光伏指数节节攀升，光伏ETF（515790.OF）涨逾14%，有20只光伏股涨幅超过 20%。 光伏减产预期炒作仍在延续。7月10日，光伏玻璃、逆变器上涨，硅片、BC电池以及硅料子板块跟涨。 截至收盘，光伏指数收涨1.2%，6月最后一周以来累计反弹13.75%，拓日新能（002218.SZ）、协鑫集 成（002506.SZ）、弘元绿能（603185.SH）等个股涨停。 消息面上，硅料价格本周环比增长逾6%，涨价有向下传导的趋势。同时，市场传闻多家硅片企业上调 了硅片报价，不同尺寸的硅片价格涨幅在8%—11.7%。但由于抢装潮后国内光伏市场终端需求萎缩，下 游环节对此次硅片提价接受程度还有待观察。 从光伏板块已经发布的业绩预告来看，业绩出现分化。硅片跌价导致TCL中环（002129.SZ）二季度净 利润亏损加剧，爱旭股份（600732.SH）的ABC组件海外销售带动公司二季度归母净利润扭亏。"反内 卷"信号已经明确，伴随更多中报业绩预告出炉，市场关注的重点或聚焦于减产执行与尾部低效产能出 清的力度。 上游涨价传递，资金博弈反转 近阶段，政策密集释放反内卷信号直指产业痛点：产能过剩供需错配，产品 ...

Group 1 - The photovoltaic industry chain is experiencing price increases, with polysilicon manufacturers raising prices to a range of 45,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, although actual transactions at this level have not yet been observed [1] - There is a strong determination among polysilicon manufacturers to maintain prices, and some downstream companies may accept slight price increases to avoid future risks of further price hikes [1] - The macro-level supply-side clearing guidance is expected to provide a framework for the industry's "anti-involution," but actual implementation may take time [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Securities suggests focusing on "capacity clearing" and "new technology iteration" as two main lines for investment [2] - In terms of capacity clearing, attention should be paid to leading companies in the polysilicon and photovoltaic glass sectors, particularly those with significant losses and clear capacity clearing expectations [2] - New technology advancements, particularly in BC cells and perovskite cell commercial applications, are also highlighted as areas of interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend in the photovoltaic industry indicates a recovery in silicon material prices, driven by industry self-discipline and favorable policies [1][2][4] Group 1: Silicon Material Price Trends - The latest data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Industry Branch shows that silicon material prices have continued to rise, with multi-crystalline silicon N-type raw materials and N-type granular silicon prices increasing by 6.92% and 6.27% respectively [1] - Multi-crystalline silicon prices have been significantly adjusted, with a price increase of 25% to 35%, bringing the price range to 45,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton [1] - The mainstream price for N-type dense materials has reached 39 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 14.71% increase from the previous week [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Sentiment - The photovoltaic sector has seen a positive market response, with several companies' stock prices reaching new highs following a recent industry meeting that addressed low-price competition [2] - Analysts express optimism regarding policy-driven structural optimization and market environment improvements within the industry [2] - Although new orders are limited, the execution of previously signed orders has strengthened, indicating a stabilization in the silicon material market [2][3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Conditions - The supply-demand situation for silicon materials has shown signs of improvement, with June's domestic multi-crystalline silicon production at approximately 102,000 tons, matching demand without new inventory accumulation [3] - The total domestic production for the first half of the year was about 596,000 tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 44.1% [3] - The forecast for global multi-crystalline silicon demand in 2025 is around 1.4 million tons, with domestic demand expected to be approximately 1.3 million tons [3] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The current policies are focused on market regulation and resource concentration, which may lead to the faster elimination of high-cost production capacities [3] - The industry is expected to undergo a structural transformation towards refined management, with a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics anticipated post-2026 [3] - The ongoing "anti-involution" movement serves as a test of comprehensive cost strength among companies, with those facing long-term inventory accumulation and cash flow issues at risk of production halts [3][4]

政策面，"反内卷"政策出台推动光伏供给侧结构改革。东兴证券表示，政策密集释放反内卷信号，光伏 供给侧改革有望提速。此外，今年以来高频次的政策发声，将反内卷提升至战略高度，表明了政府对于 治理反内卷问题的决心，未来随着自上而下推动，光伏行业供给侧改革有望提速。 近期多晶硅现货价格出现明显回升，头部企业致密料报价上调至 37 元 / 千克，期货主力合约连续涨 停，市场预期价格将进一步回升至 39-40 元 / 千克。硅片环节同步跟进，多家企业上调报价，涨幅达 8%-11.7%，成本传导效应逐步显现，产业链利润预期改善。政策减产落地及价格反弹支撑Q3盈利修 复，板块或延续震荡上行。 工信部近期修订《光伏制造行业规范条件》，明确引导企业减少低水平扩产，提高新建项目资本金比例 至30%，并强化技术指标要求。《光伏制造行业规范条件》出台将加速落后产能退出，推动行业集中度 提升，龙头企业有望受益于市场份额重构。 光伏ETF（159864）追踪中证光伏产业指数，指数覆盖硅料、硅片、电池片、组件、逆变器、设备等全 产业链龙头公司，近一年来涨超13%。成分股协鑫集成、弘元绿能今日均涨停。同时，该指数经历前期 波动，估值处于低位， ...

2025年07月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：昨日贵金属价格继续高位震荡。 金 属 基本面：中国央行 6 月增持 7 万盎司黄金，连续 8 个月增持，速度有所恢复；特朗普向各国发送征税函，日 韩等 14 国 25%到 40%不等、8 月 1 日生效，欧盟或接近协议。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日流出，COMEX 黄 金库存 1144 吨，减少 8 吨；上期所黄金库存 21 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银库 存 1330 吨，减少 9 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1323 吨，减少 34 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15529 吨，减少 28 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 5 月白银进口约 450 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14868 吨，增加 22 吨。 交易策略：去美元化逻辑未变，建议黄金做多；白银反弹，近期市场销售走好，价格维持升水，使得银价维 持偏强走势，不过长期看白银工业用银扭转向下，依旧建议考虑长线布局空单或者择机做多金银比。 风险提示：贸易战反复 基本金属 | ...

一、证券市场回顾 南财金融终端数据显示，昨日(7月8日,下同)上证综指日内上涨0.7%，收于3497.48点，最高3499.89点； 深证成指日内上涨1.47%，收于10588.39点，最高10593.84点；创业板指日内上涨2.39%，收于2181.08 点，最高2183.06点。 二、ETF市场表现 1、股票型ETF整体市场表现 昨日股票型ETF收益率中位数为1.08%。其中按照不同分类，规模指数ETF中华泰柏瑞创业板50ETF收益 率最高，为2.75%；行业指数ETF中南方中证新能源ETF收益率最高，为3.25%；策略指数ETF中华夏创 业板低波价值ETF收益率最高，为1.94%；风格指数ETF中易方达创业板成长ETF收益率最高，为 2.91%；主题指数ETF中国泰中证光伏产业ETF收益率最高，为5.9%。 2、股票型ETF涨跌幅排行 昨日股票型ETF涨幅最高的3只ETF及其收益率分别为：国泰中证光伏产业ETF(5.9%)、易方达中证光伏 产业ETF(5.57%)、浦银安盛中证光伏产业ETF(5.57%)。涨幅前10详情见下表: | 类别 | 代码 | 基金名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | - ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe price competition, leading to significant losses for companies, prompting a call for "anti-involution" measures to ensure sustainable development and product quality improvement [1][3][10]. Industry Overview - The Central Economic Committee has mandated the regulation of low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [1][10]. - The photovoltaic sector has seen a strong rebound in stock prices since early July, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy experiencing significant gains [1]. Financial Performance - Longi Green Energy reported a revenue of 82.58 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 36.23%, with losses exceeding 8.6 billion yuan, marking a staggering drop of 180.15% [3][6]. - The gross margin for Longi's silicon wafer and rod segments was reported at -14.31%, a decline of 30.19%, while the module and battery segments had a gross margin of only 6.27%, down 12.11% [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to excessive competition and price drops that have resulted in many companies operating at a loss [3][7]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has significantly decreased, with a 24% drop for 2.0mm glass and an 18% drop for 3.2mm glass expected in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. Production Adjustments - In response to the ongoing price competition, major photovoltaic glass manufacturers have agreed to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [8][10]. - Many silicon wafer manufacturers are also planning to cut their operating rates by approximately 40% to mitigate losses and stabilize prices [10]. Regulatory Response - The manufacturing sector's recent meetings have emphasized the need for comprehensive governance of low-price competition and the promotion of product quality to achieve healthy and sustainable industry growth [1][10].

光大期货分析指出，继光伏行业座谈会上明确提出"治理行业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出， 加快推动产业高质量发展"之后，近期市场消息端传言较多， 一是多晶硅将进行成本摸排定价，低于最低成本价或面临处罚；二是7月多晶硅原定复产取消，行业或 通过收储、协会制定标杆成本价以及将光伏从制造品作为能源品定位等多方面路径实现产能逐步出清， 消息端不确定性较大，后期关注具体的落地情况。 除此之外，昨日多部门印发《关于促进大功率充电设施科学规划建设的通知》，鼓励打造智能有序大功 率充电场站，建立大功率充电场站与配电网高效互动机制，因地制宜配建光伏发电和储能设施。多重举 措使得多晶硅基本面存明显改善预期，市场资金主动流入推涨期货盘面。 此外，据券商中国报道，从昨晚开始，市场即流传一则"小作文"，其主要内容涉及"硅料收储可能会于 近期落地"。事实上，该传闻已经在5月份发酵过一次。彼时有消息指出，六大头部硅料厂商正在探讨并 购相关产能，通过雪藏尾部产能实施更大力度的控产，将用近3个月过渡期形成方案；同时六大龙头已 进一步达成减产挺价共识，并设置了每吨4.5万—5万元的挺价区间。当时，智通财经还证实了硅料大厂 集体协商整合行业的计 ...

中新社北京7月8日电 (记者 陈康亮)中国A股8日(周二)放量上涨，主要股指悉数飘红收官。其中，上证 指数实现"四连涨"，再创年内新高，逼近3500点整数关口。 消息面上，中国工业和信息化部部长李乐成近日主持召开第十五次制造业企业座谈会，聚焦加快推动光 伏产业高质量发展，听取光伏行业企业及行业协会情况介绍和意见建议。李乐成强调，要聚焦重点难 点，依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，实 现健康、可持续发展。 太平洋证券分析师崔文娟表示，近期，中国官方释出推动光伏行业"反内卷"的积极信号，有望加快行业 供给侧产能出清，同时也会倒逼新技术加速突破，光伏行业有望从"价格战"转向"技术差异化"，将优化 产能结构、加速技术进步，进而推动设备需求，利好相关板块。(完) 板块方面，当天A股大多数板块走强。根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，当天光伏设备板块上涨 5.55%，领涨A股所有行业板块。个股方面，首航新能、亿晶光电、拓日新能、弘元绿能、通威股份等 多股股价当天收获涨停板；其中，首航新能录得约20%的涨幅。 截至当天收盘，上证指数报3497点，涨幅为0.7%；深证成指报10 ...