Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by weak U.S. economic data and increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with over 90% probability for a rate cut in September according to CME FedWatch [2] - U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a weakening labor market, reinforcing market bets on a new round of rate cuts [2] - Global trade uncertainties, exacerbated by recent tariff increases signed by President Trump, continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold may have reached a short-term peak, with bearish signals emerging [3] - A downward channel has formed in the short term, indicating potential further declines in gold prices [5] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at 3385-3390, while support levels are at 3335-3340 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Driven by the strong stock market, the risk appetite has recovered, suppressing the bond market. Meanwhile, the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2] - For trading strategies, the 2509 contract is neutral in the unilateral trading; pay attention to the widening of the basis in arbitrage; and in hedging, short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts as there is medium - term adjustment pressure [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI monthly环比 is - 0.10% and同比 is 0.10%; China's PPI monthly环比 is - 0.40% and同比 is - 3.60% [8] - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a环比 increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of + 0.95%; M2同比 is 8.30%, with a环比 increase of 0.40% and a环比 change rate of + 5.06%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a环比 increase of 0.20% and a环比 change rate of + 0.40% [8] - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 97.51, with a环比 increase of 0.28 and a环比 change rate of + 0.29%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1462, with a环比 decrease of 0.015 and a环比 change rate of - 0.21%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with a环比 increase of 0.08 and a环比 change rate of + 5.60%; DR007 is 1.58, with a环比 increase of 0.09 and a环比 change rate of + 6.29%; R007 is 1.68, with a环比 increase of 0.04 and a环比 change rate of + 2.35%; The 3 - month yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a环比 increase of 0.04 and a环比 change rate of + 2.45%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a环比 increase of 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 2.45% [8] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the maturity yield trend of treasury bonds of each term, the valuation change of treasury bonds of each term in the recent day, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the position - holding ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each treasury bond futures variety, the trading - to - position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][14][17][20][22][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - Relevant figures include the interest - rate corridor, central bank's open - market operations, bond - lending turnover and the total position - holding volume of treasury bond futures, Shibor interest - rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local bonds [27][29][34][36] 4. Spread Overview - Relevant figures include the inter - term spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety, the term spread of spot bonds and the inter - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond yield and futures price (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [40][42][43][46] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [45][48][55] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [54][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [62][65] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [69][72][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The 2509 contract of Treasury bond futures is rated neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the risk appetite has recovered, suppressing the bond market. The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.86, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 and a decline rate of - 0.61%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1795, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.004 and a decline rate of - 0.05%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.14%; DR007 is 1.49, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.10%; R007 is 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22% [9] 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.76 yuan, and 119.97 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.05%, - 0.05%, and - 0.46% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.018 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, and - 0.044 yuan respectively [2] 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.366%, 1.477%, 1.571%, and 1.534% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [1] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread - related charts, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the relationships between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][43][44] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate [46][49] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TF main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TF main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [55][58] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the T main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the T main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [63][66] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TL main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TL main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [71][74][76]

Global Asset Price Review - The report highlights that global trade uncertainty has increased due to President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs on 14 countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 70% expected to take effect on August 1, 2025. This has led to a rise in commodity assets [1][8] - In terms of market performance, the report notes that the 10Y US Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.43%, while the dollar index slightly rebounded to 97.9, remaining below 100. Asian stock markets showed positive performance, with the European Stoxx 600 up by 1.15%, followed by the Hang Seng Index at 0.93% and the CSI 300 at 0.82% [1][8] - Commodity prices also saw increases, with crude oil rising by 3.09% and gold by 0.71% [1][8] Global Fund Flows - The report indicates a significant inflow of funds into developed markets, particularly in the US and Europe. US fixed income funds saw an inflow of $9.51 billion, while US equity funds attracted $4.91 billion. In contrast, Chinese equity funds experienced a slight outflow [1][15] - Sector-wise, US funds saw inflows into financials, utilities, and technology, while outflows were noted in consumer, industrials, and healthcare sectors. In China, inflows were observed in technology, finance, and materials, with outflows in consumer, communication, and healthcare sectors [1][15] Global Asset Valuation - The report states that the equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets. The CSI 300 ERP decreased by 1 percentage point to 68%, while the Shanghai Composite Index ERP fell by 2 percentage points to 60% [1][8] - The ERP for major US indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq is reported at 2%, 2%, and 3% respectively, indicating lower risk-adjusted returns compared to Chinese markets [1][8] Global Economic Data - The report notes that the global trade situation has become tense again due to Trump's tariff announcements, with tariffs on imports from the notified countries expected to range from 25% to 40%. Additionally, a 50% tariff on copper imports to the US was mentioned, although the effective date was not specified [1][8] - Key economic indicators to watch include China's June export figures, Q2 GDP growth, and the US June CPI [1][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member, Naoki Tamura, emphasizes the need to restore the damping function of the Japanese government bond market amid high global trade uncertainties and a transformative global economy [1] Group 1 - The current global economic environment is characterized by significant uncertainties in trade [1] - There is a recognition of a "systemic transformation" occurring in the global economy [1] - The urgency to restore the functionality of the Japanese government bond market is highlighted as a critical measure [1]

Core Viewpoint - Westpac Bank expresses concerns that Australia may face prolonged low growth due to weak first-quarter GDP data and government spending cuts [1] Economic Outlook - The weak GDP data has raised market fears about Australia's economy entering a phase of long-term moderate growth [1] - Westpac's senior economist, Pat Bustamante, indicates that if the anticipated rebound in private consumption is hindered by global trade uncertainties, the domestic economic stagnation may persist for a longer duration [1] Trade and Investment Impact - Bustamante highlights that global uncertainties related to U.S. trade policies have negatively impacted market confidence, business investment, and consumer willingness to spend, exacerbating the risks to the economy [1]

Group 1 - The latest data indicates a concerning trend in the U.S. labor market, with continued unemployment claims rising to 1.92 million, the highest level since November 2021, exceeding economists' expectations of 1.89 million, suggesting potential pressure on the labor market [1] - The increase in unemployment claims has not yet shown a significant impact in the non-farm payroll report, with the unemployment rate in April at 4.2%, the highest since July of the previous year, but this increase has not raised widespread market concerns [1][3] - Analysts believe the current labor market trend reflects a "low hiring, low layoffs" state, with initial unemployment claims slightly up by 14,000 to 240,000, indicating that the overall economy is still absorbing labor despite a slowdown [3] Group 2 - Experts anticipate that the labor market may face more noticeable pressure in the coming months, particularly with the release of non-farm employment data and expectations of economic growth slowing in the second half of the year [5] - The dynamics of the labor market are becoming crucial for observing future economic trends, influenced by high inflation, rising interest rates, and global trade uncertainties [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that while there is a slight recovery in business confidence in South Korea, the overall economic sentiment remains pessimistic, with the Business Survey Index (BSI) consistently below 100 for 39 months [1][3][7] - In June, the BSI for South Korea's top 600 companies rose to 94.7, an increase of 9.7 from May, but still reflects a dominant pessimistic sentiment as it remains below the neutral mark of 100 [3] - The manufacturing sector showed a significant rebound in the BSI, reaching 96, driven mainly by the electronics and telecommunications industries, while the non-manufacturing sector's BSI was only 93.5, indicating ongoing weakness [5][7] Group 2 - The report highlights the vulnerability of the South Korean economy amid global uncertainties, with persistent low domestic demand and trade risks being key factors affecting business confidence [7] - To achieve a comprehensive economic recovery, South Korea needs to address trade risks in the short term and implement effective measures to boost domestic demand, providing a more stable foundation for business confidence [7] - Analysts suggest that sustained economic recovery will depend on more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, including increased public investment and interest rate reductions [5]

新华财经北京5月20日电（崔凯）在通胀持续回落、消费疲软以及全球贸易不确定性加剧的背景下，澳 洲联储（RBA）宣布将现金利率目标下调25个基点至3.85%。这是自2023年以来澳洲利率首次跌破4%， 进入"3"字头区间，标志着货币政策进一步转向宽松。 此次降息符合市场普遍预期。此前，货币市场和多数经济学家已预测到这一决定，主要基于以下几点： 消费者支出低迷、经济增长前景黯淡以及国际关税政策带来的不确定性上升。 通胀稳定，但增长与就业承压 澳洲联储在声明中指出，尽管目前通胀率已从2022年的峰值显著下降，并预计在未来三年内维持在 2.6%的水平，但经济增长面临压力。 全球风险加剧，澳洲政策路径存变数 澳洲联储特别指出，全球经济在过去三个月内不确定性大幅上升，金融市场波动剧烈。尽管近期有关关 税问题的声明推动金融市场价格反弹，但最终政策走向及其他国家的应对措施仍存在高度不确定性。 地缘政治紧张局势也可能进一步拖累全球经济活动。若家庭和企业因前景不明而推迟支出，澳大利亚的 增长、就业和通胀前景将进一步疲软。 不过，联储也表示，如果贸易紧张局势迅速缓解，全球经济增长可能提速，澳洲的降息幅度或将相应减 少。 根据预测： ...