Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, marking the lowest growth since February, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months [1][3] - The revisions of March and April's non-farm payroll data were down by a total of 95,000, indicating potential weakness in the U.S. labor market amid trade policy uncertainties and slowing economic growth [1][2] - President Trump has called for a one percentage point reduction in the federal funds rate, emphasizing that a competent Federal Reserve chair would lower interest rates [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for three consecutive meetings, with officials expressing concerns over the impact of trade policies and inflation levels [3][4] - Other countries have taken different actions regarding interest rates, with the Bank of India lowering its benchmark rate to 5.5%, the lowest since August 2022, and the Russian central bank reducing its rate to 20% amid economic challenges [4][5] - The European Central Bank has cut key rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth reduction since last June, with current inflation rates near the mid-term target of 2% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.0 and 7.3 in June 2025, influenced by various domestic and international factors, including U.S. economic uncertainty and global monetary policy trends [6][7]. Market Review - In May 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1722 to 7.2461, with the onshore rate between 7.1843 and 7.2461, the central parity rate between 7.1833 and 7.2095, and the offshore rate between 7.1722 and 7.2437 [3][4]. - Key factors affecting the RMB exchange rate included the easing of high tariffs during the U.S.-China trade talks, Moody's downgrade of U.S. sovereign credit rating, and significant increases in Japanese long-term bond yields [3][4]. - The Bank of England and the Bank of Korea both announced interest rate cuts in May, contributing to a global trend of monetary easing [3]. Domestic Factors - China's economy remained relatively stable amid global high tariffs and geopolitical tensions, with the central bank lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - Following the U.S.-China trade talks, several international investment banks raised their GDP growth forecasts for China, with UBS increasing its forecast from 3.4% to between 3.7% and 4.0% [4]. Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies may lead to short-term shocks to the U.S. economy, with the OECD lowering its U.S. GDP growth forecast from 2.2% to 1.6% [6]. - The potential for continued monetary easing in major global economies, including the Eurozone, may support the RMB [6]. - However, concerns over rising inflation due to U.S. tariff policies may lead the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts, which could negatively impact the RMB [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are in a continuous wave of interest rate cuts, with various countries like Egypt, Australia, and Canada already taking action, driven by a complex interplay of factors including slowing economic growth and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Environment - The global economic growth forecast has been revised down from 3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, influenced by rising trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts affecting energy supply chains [1]. - The recent decline in inflation has created space for policy shifts, allowing central banks to lower interest rates [1]. Group 2: Trading Opportunities - The interest rate cut cycle presents three major trading opportunities: - Revaluation of interest-sensitive assets, particularly benefiting the real estate and manufacturing sectors, with a noted lag of 3-6 months for mortgage rates to impact home sales [3]. - Structural market trends in equities, where technology stocks typically outperform in early rate cut phases, while energy stocks may underperform due to weakened demand expectations [3]. - Arbitrage opportunities in commodities, with gold's hedging function becoming more pronounced during periods of declining real interest rates [3]. Group 3: Risks in the Current Environment - Four core risks accompany the interest rate cut environment: - The lag in policy transmission may lead to a delayed response from the real economy to rate cuts [4]. - Debt risks may escalate as emerging markets increase leverage, potentially leading to credit rating downgrades and widening credit spreads [4]. - An escalation in currency wars could arise if the dollar index breaches critical levels, prompting currency interventions and market volatility [4]. - The risk of inflation resurgence if demand rebounds too quickly due to rapid rate cuts [4]. Group 4: Risk Management Strategies - DLSM Forex platform offers a comprehensive risk management framework, including: - Application of macro hedging tools like interest rate options and currency corridor strategies to lock in profits and mitigate risks [4]. - Credit screening of micro-level entities, focusing on cash flow coverage ratios to avoid high-leverage operations [4]. - Dynamic rebalancing of asset portfolios based on macroeconomic data adjustments to respond to market changes [4][5]. Group 5: Impact of AI Revolution - The AI revolution is reshaping trading logic, with significant capital expenditure increases in leading AI companies like Nvidia and TSMC, showing a notable negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields [5]. - However, there are concerns regarding technological iteration risks and regulatory uncertainties that need to be monitored [5].