证 券 研 究 报 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 程翔 A0230518080007 chengxiang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2026 年 01 月 04 日 开门红 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/12/29-26/01/04) 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 一 周 回 顾 展 望 告 联系人 ⚫ 一、25 年 12 月 PMI 环比超季节性改善，强化了春季没有下行风险的格局。25 年 12 月 PMI、生产、新订单和新出口订单环比差值均显著好于季节性。我们认为，这与 26 年春 节较晚，出口订单前置直接相关。这在春节前的窗口，都构成支撑经济数据验证的因素。 ⚫ 排除经济下行风险后，一个没有重大下行风 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is transitioning from a liquidity and valuation-driven phase to a new stage that emphasizes fundamentals and profit recovery, with a projected double-digit profit growth for the entire A-share market in 2026 [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Most major domestic securities firms believe that the A-share market will remain in a bull market in 2026, with profit recovery being a key variable for market sustainability [1][2]. - The overall profit growth for the A-share market is expected to rise from 8.2% in 2025 to 10.3% in 2026, with the growth rate for non-financial sectors projected at 7.7% [12][64]. - The first half of 2026 is anticipated to maintain market momentum, but a significant transition may occur mid-year, particularly for sectors that have seen substantial gains [1][2][27]. Group 2: Sector Focus - The technology sector remains a consensus direction for 2026, with a shift from infrastructure investment to application and performance realization in AI, focusing on areas like robotics and smart driving [2][21]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive profit recovery in sectors such as steel, chemicals, and new energy, while resource products may present opportunities as they follow the technology sector [2][27]. - The report highlights four main areas for investment opportunities: AI, new energy, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from the "15th Five-Year Plan" [34][40][79]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy should prioritize "manufacturing as a shield and technology as a sword," emphasizing advanced manufacturing and AI as core components [40][44]. - The report suggests a rotation in market style from growth to value, particularly around mid-2026, as the market may shift focus based on liquidity and industry trends [68][69]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying high-performance sectors within the "future industries" and suggests a focus on resource security and energy [79][91]. Group 4: Financial Metrics and Predictions - The overall A-share market is expected to see a significant recovery in profitability, with non-financial net profit growth projected to rebound from 6.5% in 2025 to 16.5% in 2026 [33][64]. - The report predicts that the supply-side reforms will lead to a more balanced market, with a focus on sectors that have undergone significant price recovery and demand stimulation [27][92]. - The report indicates that the current market valuation structure remains healthy, with no signs of overheating, suggesting further upward potential [80][89].

Core Insights - The conference held by Shenwan Hongyuan focused on investment opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing various sectors including asset allocation, high-end manufacturing, artificial intelligence, and consumption [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Development and Innovation - Liu Jian, Chairman of Shenwan Hongyuan, highlighted the shift in China's economic growth model towards innovation-driven development, with a focus on original innovation and technological breakthroughs [3]. - China's R&D expenditure is projected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan in 2024, representing approximately 2.69% of GDP, surpassing Japan and South Korea in terms of R&D scale [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Bull Market Analysis - Zhao Wei, Chief Economist at Shenwan Hongyuan, indicated that 2026 will be a pivotal year for reform and development, suggesting that accelerating reforms will create significant opportunities [3][4]. - The "bull market two-stage theory" proposed by Fu Jingtao suggests that the first stage, characterized by a technology-driven market, may peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market in the second half of 2026 [4][5]. - Fu Jingtao noted that the current bull market is still in its early stages, with a shift in asset allocation towards equities expected to drive market growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The analysis presented by Shenyin Wanguo's chief analyst suggests a two-phase bull market, with 2025 representing the "Bull Market 1.0" focused on technology, and a potential transition to a broader bull market in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The "Bull Market 1.0" in 2025 is characterized by a technology-driven structure, with expectations of a peak in the spring of 2026 [1] - The second half of 2026 may initiate a comprehensive bull market, termed "Bull Market 2.0" [1] Group 2: AI Industry Insights - The AI industry trend is expected to continue evolving, but the stock prices of A-share AI industry chain companies are currently in a long-term low cost-performance zone [1] - This situation is reminiscent of previous market phases, such as the early 2014 ChiNext, early 2018 food and beverage sector, and early 2021 new energy sector [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Historically, markets often undergo a phase of skepticism before continuing with industry trend-driven rallies [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current "Bull Market 1.0" phase is at a high level, with insufficient long-term cost-effectiveness in the technology sector, and increasing resistance to further upward breakthroughs. The cyclical market is still in a "running ahead" phase, with mid-term logic showing gaps, and conditions for the initiation of "Bull Market 2.0" are not yet complete. It is advised to focus on small wave rhythms based on short-term cost-effectiveness in a high-level oscillation market [1][4][6] - The A-share AI industry chain is currently in a state of "the major industrial trend has not ended + small fluctuations + long-term low cost-effectiveness area." Historical experience suggests that future trends will typically be divided into "high-level oscillation phase" and "adjustment phase" [1][4][6] - The report outlines three challenges that the A-share market may face in the spring of 2026, which could be a potential peak: 1. Long-term low cost-effectiveness in technology, which may trigger adjustments; 2. A critical verification period for demand-side conditions; 3. Conditions for the transition to "Bull Market 2.0" are not yet mature [1][6][7] Market Phases - The high-level oscillation phase makes it increasingly difficult to earn valuation money, and new industrial catalysts or sustained high growth in performance are less likely to lead to upward breakthroughs. This phase typically lasts at a quarterly level, and adjustments may not occur immediately [4][5][6] - The adjustment phase is usually triggered by intermediate disturbances in industrial trends, which do not signify the end of structural bulls but may adjust to reasonable levels between bull and bear markets [5][6][7] Investment Focus - In the current high-level oscillation zone, both cyclical and technology sectors should focus on Alpha opportunities. Short-term cyclical investments should prioritize sectors with favorable supply-demand dynamics, such as basic chemicals and industrial metals, as well as high-dividend-rewarding coal and leading oil companies in Hong Kong [1][6][7] - Short-term opportunities in technology growth mainly come from small wave rebounds, with a focus on sectors with new catalysts or significant industrial space, particularly energy storage and storage solutions. Additionally, sectors with upward economic outlooks and relatively high cost-effectiveness may see early gains before spring 2026, especially in innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense industries [1][6][8]

Group 1 - CATL's market capitalization reached 1,818.4 billion yuan, surpassing Kweichow Moutai's 1,809 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone in the A-share market [1][2] - On September 30, CATL's stock price hit a historical high of 408.88 yuan per share, reflecting a 2.90% increase [2] - The market sentiment indicates a strong "technology bull market," suggesting that the rise of CATL is part of a broader trend in the A-share market towards technology-driven investments [3] Group 2 - Zhongyin Securities predicts a "structural bull market" in the A-share market, potentially transitioning to a "comprehensive bull market" due to strong trends in the technology sector and a reallocation of market funds [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have outlined a plan for new energy storage, aiming for an installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, which will drive direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports suggests that the current bull market in A-shares is expected to evolve into a "mixed bull market," characterized by a "structural bull" phase followed by a "comprehensive bull" phase, similar to the market dynamics observed in 2013-2014 and 2016-2017 [1] - The report highlights that each bull market is driven by significant incremental capital, which allows the market to start independently of fundamental and liquidity constraints. The previous bull markets relied on different main channels for capital inflow, with the upcoming bull market expected to see insurance funds play a major role starting in the first half of 2025 [1] - Current data indicates that there has not been a significant increase in financing balances, insurance, actively managed equity fund issuance, or passive ETF issuance since August, suggesting that the main capital channels have not yet emerged [1] Group 2 - The current structural bull market in technology is driven by positive feedback from market funds towards the structural prosperity of AI hardware and strong industrial trends. The expectation is that the A-share market will transition into a "comprehensive bull" phase [2] - The report draws parallels to the market rotation structure observed during the macroeconomic U-shaped recovery from 2012 to 2017, indicating a potential shift from a technology-focused bull market to a cyclical blue-chip bull market, moving from small-cap to large-cap stocks [2] - As macroeconomic improvement signals emerge, the report anticipates further expansion into sectors characterized by "comprehensive bull" attributes, such as anti-involution and consumption [2]

Group 1 - The current bull market is expected to evolve into a slow and long bull market, characterized as a mixed bull market similar to the patterns observed in 2013-2014 and 2016-2017, transitioning from a structural bull to a comprehensive bull market [2][3] - Historical analysis of A-share bull markets from 2001 to 2025 reveals six distinct bull market phases, each driven by different macroeconomic conditions and profit dynamics, with valuation expansion being a common factor [9][12][45] - The current bull market is primarily driven by incremental capital, with insurance funds playing a significant role in the first half of 2025, while other funding sources such as retail investor accounts and public funds have not shown significant increases [3][45] Group 2 - The current "structural bull" market is driven by positive feedback from market participants towards AI hardware, but faces challenges related to the capacity of stocks that can be grouped together and the amount of incremental capital available [3][5] - The transition from a structural bull to a comprehensive bull market is anticipated, drawing parallels to the market rotations observed during the macroeconomic recovery phases from 2012 to 2017, where the focus shifted from technology to cyclical blue-chip stocks [3][5] - The report suggests a three-step expansion of the current bull market: first, a focus on AI hard technology; second, a broader technology growth phase; and finally, a comprehensive bull market driven by macroeconomic improvements [3][5][29]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3900 points, marking a nearly 10-year high, and a daily trading volume exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan, a record since 2010 [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the current market rally is supported by macroeconomic recovery and policy backing, indicating a potential "slow bull" market characterized by sustainable growth [1][2] - Various analysts have differing views on the nature of the current market rally, with some suggesting it is a "quantitative bull" transitioning to a "comprehensive bull," while others see it as a "transformation bull" driven by economic restructuring [1][4] Group 2 - The policy environment is playing a crucial role in restoring market confidence, with significant measures introduced to stabilize expectations and enhance market vitality, particularly in the context of new capital market reforms [2][3] - The integration of strategic emerging industries with China's efficient infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities is reshaping the economic model and enhancing competitive strength on a global scale [6][7] - Long-term capital inflows from pension funds, insurance, and public funds are positively impacting the A-share market, indicating a shift towards more sustainable investment strategies [3][7] Group 3 - The current market is expected to outperform overseas markets, driven by domestic policy support and the involvement of state-owned funds, which provide a solid foundation for the economic fundamentals [7][8] - The ongoing low-interest-rate environment is prompting investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies, favoring equity investments over traditional savings [8] - The rapid development of AI and other technological advancements is anticipated to drive economic transformation and improve market fundamentals, contributing to a more durable market trend [7][8]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the systemic and practical aspects of the current economic landscape, highlighting the shift in global trade dynamics due to the weakening of direct economic ties between China and the U.S. and the strengthening of China's relationships with emerging markets [1][2] - China's trade connections with emerging markets are becoming increasingly robust, while its trade ties with major U.S. allies have declined, indicating a strategic pivot in China's economic diplomacy [2] - The article suggests that the current "strategic stalemate" between China and the U.S. is a foundational expectation, with an optimistic outlook for China's strategic opportunities beginning to take root among investors [2] Group 2 - The A-share market is seen as having the potential to develop into a bull market due to increasing household asset allocation towards equities, driven by a decline in risk-free interest rates and an upcoming peak in deposit reallocations in 2025 [3][4] - Improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns are expected to elevate the return baseline for A-shares, while the encouragement of mergers and acquisitions aligns with a turning point in the primary market [4][5] - A significant supply clearing cycle is anticipated, which could lead to a long-term increase in profitability for Chinese enterprises, particularly in high-value sectors [5][6] Group 3 - The current market conditions are not yet signaling the start of a bull market, with various factors influencing demand and supply dynamics, including uncertainties in domestic fiscal policies and real estate [6][7] - The technology sector is undergoing a mid-term adjustment, with breakthroughs in foundational technologies necessary for significant advancements in AI applications [7] - New consumption trends are emerging as a separate industrial trend, but the broader economic transition towards consumption-driven growth is expected to be gradual [7][8] Group 4 - A forecast for A-share profitability in 2025 indicates a likely decline in demand in the latter half of the year, with a projected net profit growth rate of 4.6% for the entire A-share market [8] - The asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as the accumulation of a profitable effect is necessary for public funds to re-enter the market [9][10] - The potential bull market is expected to be driven by structural trends in new economic industries, with significant catalysts needed for a broader market rally [10][12] Group 5 - The article discusses the conditions necessary for a bull market to emerge, emphasizing the importance of breaking out of the current trading range and the historical context of market behavior following bear markets [11][12] - The potential for a "Chinese-style slow bull" market is highlighted, with expectations for a longer duration of market optimism despite weaker elasticity in fundamental improvements [12][13] - Key sectors such as AI, embodied intelligence, and defense are identified as having the potential to drive structural bull trends, with a focus on high-value opportunities in the technology space [13][14] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned to lead the market rally, serving as a critical link in China's financial external circulation and benefiting from the convergence of domestic and foreign capital [15]