隔夜，现货黄金收盘暴涨235.97美元，涨幅4.55%，报5417.07美元。今日亚市盘中，黄金突然暴涨，一度飙升至5594.77美元，目前在5505美元附 近徘徊。 国际金价的飙升迅速传导至国内市场，国内部分主流金饰品牌报价刷新1700元/克，创下历史新高，单日上涨百元左右。 白银方面，现货白银随黄金上行，最终收涨3.97%，报116.77美元。今日亚市盘中，白银延续涨势，目前在116美元附近徘徊。 美联储暂停降息！ 隔夜，美股三大指数收盘涨跌互现，截至收盘，道指涨0.02%，标普500指数跌0.01%，纳指涨0.17%。 消息面上，美联储"按兵不动"。 北京时间1月29日凌晨3点，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率区间维持在3.50%—3.75%不变，符合市场普遍预期。这是美联储自2025年9月起连续三 次会议降息后首次暂停行动。 本次暂停降息的决策没能得到全体FOMC投票委员的一致支持。FOMC声明指出，在12名FOMC投票委员中，有两人投出了反对票，分别是美联 储理事斯蒂芬·米兰和克里斯托弗·沃勒，他们都倾向于降息25个基点。 美联储已连续五次FOMC会议都出现反对票，这凸显美联储内部分歧愈发严重。其中，米兰 ...

北京时间1月29日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，暂停了此前连 续三次的降息。中信证券海外宏观联席首席分析师李翀表示，结合本次利率决议，美联储主席鲍威尔在 任期间，美联储或不再实施降息操作。 通胀层面，李翀分析说，若不新增关税，鲍威尔将预计关税通胀见顶的时间从一季度后移至年中，这是 相较于2025年12月会议偏鹰的表态。加之特朗普多次释放关税威胁，新政策落地存疑，预计鲍威尔任内 剩余两次会议将暂停降息。 资产价格方面，美股、美债及美元波动温和。在偏鹰会议背景下，贵金属价格大幅走高，其走势主要受 地缘因素与市场情绪驱动。 美联储此次议息会议声明与前次差异显著，李翀总结四方面调整：一是经济活动表述从"以温和步伐扩 张"改为"以稳健步伐扩张"；二是就业表述更新为"就业增长仍处较低水平，失业率显现稳定迹象"，此 前表述为"就业增长放缓、失业率截至9月略有上升，近期指标与上述一致"；三是通胀表述精简为"通胀 仍偏高"，删除了"较年初有所上行"的表述；四是风险判断删除"近期就业下行风险上升"，仅保留"关注 双重使命两侧风险"。 就业市场方面，李翀认为，美国虽维持"低招聘+低裁员"格局 ...

环球市场动态 美 国 关 税 通 胀 见 顶 时 间 后 移 股 票 周三亚太股市个别发展，MSCI 不 排除将印度尼西亚降级至前沿市 场，拖累股市大跌 7.3%。港股高开 高走，A 股涨跌不一。奢侈品股受 压，欧股下跌。美联储一如预期维 持利率不变，美股个别发展，变动 不大。 外 汇 / 商 品 特朗普警告伊朗尽快达成核协议， 美伊局势紧张，周三纽约期油升至 四个月高位，国际金银价格续创新 高；贝森特关于美国绝没有入市干 预日元的表态也为美元带来支撑， 在美联储维持利率不变之后美元指 数触及日内高点。 固 定 收 益 美联储维持利率不变在 3.50%– 3.75%。美国国债持稳，收益率曲线 略微走平。声明称就业风险减弱， 并不急于进一步降息。日本 40 年 期国债拍卖结果较好推动市场企 稳。贝森特否认将干预日元汇率。 亚洲债市企稳，债券利差普遍收窄。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2026 年 1 月 29 日 ▪ 美联储 2026 年 1 月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。议息会议声明和鲍威尔发言均表示美国失业 率出 ...

美联储1月议息会议按下暂停键，维持利率在3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支持降息25个基点；鲍威尔重 申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话，并表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明 可以放松政策。 美财长：总统可能在一周左右公布美联储主席人选。另外，特朗普表达不担忧美元走弱后，他表示，美 国长期奉行强势美元政策，绝对没有干预日元。 川普警告对伊朗下一次袭击将更严重，称后者时间不多了。伊朗回应称，伊方愿在相互尊重基础上与美 对话。 因对伊朗局势的担忧升温，油价周三升至去年9月底以来最高。WTI原油震荡上行，重回63美元上方， 最终收涨1.47%，报63.57美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨1.33%，报67.42美元/桶。 1月29日 资讯分享 周三，现货黄金本月以来的迅猛涨势毫无放缓迹象，周三首次突破5400美元/盎司，日内暴涨220美元， 创单日涨幅之最，最终收涨4.6%，报5417.44美元/盎司；现货白银随黄金上行，最终收涨3.97%，报 116.77美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices surged significantly, closing at $5411.0 per ounce, with a 4.47% increase, while domestic SHFE gold also saw a rise of 3.36% to 1196.8 yuan per gram, indicating strong market sentiment towards gold [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates, marking the first pause in rate cuts since September 2025, after three consecutive meetings of rate reductions [2][4]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that inflation risks have somewhat diminished and employment risks are stabilizing, suggesting that rate hikes are not a fundamental assumption for future actions [2][4]. - Powell mentioned that the impact of tariffs has largely been transmitted to the economy, with expectations that tariff-induced inflation will dissipate by mid-2026 [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Context - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reaffirmed the commitment to a strong dollar policy, despite the dollar experiencing fluctuations [5]. - The strong performance of gold is attributed to several factors, including ongoing government shutdown threats, potential announcements of a dovish Fed chair by the Trump administration, and heightened geopolitical tensions in Iran [5]. - The continuous breakthroughs in gold prices reflect a prevailing bullish market sentiment, although caution is advised regarding the risks of chasing high prices [5].

季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 25605 | 2.63% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3358.5 | 0.22% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 284497 | 28823 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 11349 | -5211 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 118199 | -747 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 233157 | -1107 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 5 | -30 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -30.81 | -4.38 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | 广东 0# 锌升贴水 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index is trading around 96.266, while spot silver opened at $116.60/oz and is currently around $117.34/oz, indicating a positive trend in precious metals [1] - On January 28, the dollar index rose by 0.61% to close at 96.341, while spot silver increased by 3.99% to $116.61/oz, driven by investor interest in precious metals [1] - The latest data shows that on January 28, SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 211.42 tons to 15,636.12 tons [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 3.5-3.75% during the January meeting, with officials suggesting a potential 25 basis point cut if inflation eases [1] - US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that President Trump may announce a new Federal Reserve Chair in about a week, emphasizing a long-standing strong dollar policy [2] - President Trump welcomed the S&P 500 index reaching 7,000 points, reflecting confidence in the US economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate at 3.5-3.75% during the January 2026 meeting, aligning with market expectations, and indicated stability in the U.S. unemployment rate, with no further rate cuts anticipated in the remaining meetings under Powell's chairmanship [1][2][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Highlights - The Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.5-3.75%, with a split vote where two members supported a 25 basis points cut [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet management includes reinvesting maturing Treasury securities and managing reserves, with approximately $15.4 billion in reinvestment purchases planned from January 15 to February 12, 2026 [2]. - Economic indicators show steady expansion, with employment growth remaining low and inflation still elevated, while the Fed aims for full employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2% [2]. Group 2: Changes in Economic Assessment - The Fed's language shifted from "moderate pace" to "solid pace" regarding economic activity, indicating a more robust outlook [3]. - Employment language was adjusted to reflect signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate, contrasting with previous assessments of rising unemployment risks [3]. - The inflation description was simplified to indicate it remains elevated, with the previous mention of rising downside risks to employment removed [3]. Group 3: Powell's Statements and Economic Outlook - Powell stated that the policy rate is in a good position and revised the expected peak of tariff-induced inflation from Q1 to mid-year [4][5]. - He highlighted the K-shaped economic recovery, where high-income individuals significantly contribute to consumption, driven by asset appreciation and AI-related investments [5][6]. - Powell expressed concerns about affordability but noted that the Fed's tools are limited in addressing structural issues like K-shaped economic disparities [6]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - The company anticipates no further rate cuts in Powell's remaining meetings, with asset prices showing minimal volatility in U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar, while gold prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [7]. - The employment market is described as balanced, with low hiring and low layoffs, indicating no immediate pressure for further rate reductions [7].

隔夜股市 | 标的 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 0.27% | | 深证成指 | 0.09% | | 恒生指数 | 2.58% | | 日经225 | 0.05% | | 韩国KOSPI | 1.69% | | ADDAX | -0.29% | | 英国富时100 | -0.52% | | 法国CAC40 | -1.06% | | 道琼斯指数 | 0.02% | | 标普500指数 | -0.01% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 0.17% | 美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.02%，纳指涨0.17%，标普500指数跌0.01%。存储概念股走高， 希捷科技涨超19%，西部数据涨超10%。热门中概股涨跌不一，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.32%。 商品市场 | 标的 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原油 | 1.31% | | ICE布伦特原油 | 1.23% | | COMEX黄金 | 5.18% | | COMEX白银 | 3.81% | | 比特币 | 0.22% | | LME铜 | 0.74% | | LME铝 | 1.76% | | ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.02%, the Nasdaq up 0.17%, and the S&P 500 down 0.01% [1] - Storage stocks rose significantly, with Seagate Technology increasing over 19% and Western Digital rising over 10% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.32% [1] Commodity Market - International oil prices reached a four-month high, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $63.21 per barrel, up 1.31%, and Brent crude oil futures at $68.40 per barrel, up 1.23% [2] - Gold prices hit a new historical high, with spot gold rising 4.53% to $5,414.90 per ounce, peaking at $5,598.88 per ounce during the day [2] - Spot silver increased by 3.98%, closing at $116.62 per ounce, with a peak of $119.44 per ounce [2] Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations [10] - Fed governors Milan and Waller voted against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut [10] Inflation Insights - Fed Chair Powell indicated that much of the unexpected inflation is driven by tariffs rather than demand, suggesting that the impact of tariffs on goods is expected to peak and then decline this year [11] - The core PCE, excluding the impact of tariffs, is slightly above 2% [11] Tesla Developments - Tesla announced further investments in its autonomous robot infrastructure, with the first generation of the humanoid robot Optimus being laid out [12] - The Cybercab and Tesla Semi are expected to enter mass production in 2026, while Megapack 3 is anticipated to be produced this year [12] Neuralink Advancements - Neuralink's new generation brain-machine interface is set to enhance performance by three times and is expected to launch later this year, pending regulatory approval [13]