Core Insights - The private credit market has seen significant inflows, becoming a mainstream borrowing option, but this rapid growth brings inherent risks, as evidenced by recent bankruptcies [2] - Corporate balance sheets remain resilient, with strong fundamentals, but there is an expectation of more headlines related to financial distress in the coming quarters [3][4] - Investors are underestimating tariff risks, which have led to inventory stockpiling by companies, and now those without pricing power are beginning to pass costs onto consumers [6][7] Group 1: Private Credit Market - The private credit market has become a significant option for borrowing, but risks are emerging as not all financial instruments are underwritten properly [2] - Recent bankruptcies indicate potential issues within the private credit space, although they may not lead to systemic risks due to the resilience of corporate balance sheets [2][3] Group 2: Tariff Impacts - Companies have been stockpiling inventory in anticipation of tariffs, but as these inventories are depleted, the costs are starting to be passed on to consumers, particularly affecting those without pricing power [6][8] - The US dollar's low index is exacerbating import costs, creating additional challenges for companies dealing with tariffs [7] Group 3: Federal Reserve Considerations - The Federal Reserve faces a delicate balancing act in managing interest rates amid labor market softening and potential inflationary pressures from tariff impacts [10][11] - There is uncertainty regarding the Fed's future actions, especially in light of the evolving economic landscape and the potential for further interest rate cuts [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has expressed concerns regarding Apple's profit margins due to the iPhone 17 product mix and tariff issues, indicating a continued decline in momentum for the new iPhone model. The target price for Apple stock has been lowered from $205.16 to $203.07, maintaining an "underperform" rating [1] Group 1: Profit Margin Risks - Analysts led by Edison Lee suggest that Apple may not fully avoid the impact of tariffs, with potential changes to the current tariff exemptions for smartphones. The uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-India and U.S.-China tariff frameworks is underestimated by the market [1] - The additional 100% tariff imposed by former President Trump on imports from China, currently at 30%, raises questions about the continued exemption for smartphones imported from China [1] - If iPhone 17 units exported from China to the U.S. incur a 130% tariff, it could negatively impact Apple's earnings per share by approximately 5% for the fiscal year 2026, which may be an optimistic estimate [1] Group 2: iPhone 17 Sales Dynamics - The sales momentum for iPhone 17 is showing signs of further slowdown, although the base model remains strong due to effective pricing strategies and government subsidies in China [1][2] - Analysts predict that the base model of iPhone 17 will account for 36% of total sales in the 17 series, up from 32% for the iPhone 16 base model in fiscal year 2025 [2] Group 3: Delivery Wait Times - Recent tracking data indicates that delivery wait times for iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max have generally decreased across six monitored markets, with the wait time for the 17 Pro Max reaching zero in the UK and Germany [3] - The base model of iPhone 17 has the best wait time among the four models, ranging from 17 to 22 days, although wait times in the U.S. and UK have dropped to single digits [3] - The 17 Air model is currently the weakest among the four, with zero wait times across all tracked markets, contrary to market expectations [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 2.35% at 2,737 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3% at 3,232 yuan/ton The recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy sector, and the FU and LU contracts are operating weakly [1] - During the China-US tariff negotiation window, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable, with tightened Middle East supply and improved refinery demand boosting the market However, based on the current valuation and supply-demand situation, the upward drive and space are still limited, and new variables are needed for catalysis [1] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, the shutdown of the RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local supply, with September shipments reaching 500,000 tons, which has suppressed the spot market According to the latest news from IIR, the Dangote refinery's units may restart on October 14, and if they operate smoothly, the refinery's low-sulfur fuel oil production will decline again, alleviating local supply pressure [1] - Against the backdrop of increasing tariff risks, shipping and marine fuel demand also face potential pressure Compared with high-sulfur fuel oil, the downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 2.35% at 2,737 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 3% at 3,232 yuan/ton [1] - The recent continuous decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward trend in the energy sector, and the FU and LU contracts are operating weakly [1] - During the China-US tariff negotiation window, oil prices may be affected by various news, and volatility may increase significantly [1] - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently acceptable, with tightened Middle East supply and improved refinery demand boosting the market However, based on the current valuation and supply-demand situation, the upward drive and space are still limited, and new variables are needed for catalysis [1] - In the case of low-sulfur fuel oil, the shutdown of the RFCC units at the Dangote and Pengerang refineries has led to an increase in local supply, with September shipments reaching 500,000 tons, which has suppressed the spot market According to the latest news from IIR, the Dangote refinery's units may restart on October 14, and if they operate smoothly, the refinery's low-sulfur fuel oil production will decline again, alleviating local supply pressure [1] - Against the backdrop of increasing tariff risks, shipping and marine fuel demand also face potential pressure Compared with high-sulfur fuel oil, the downstream demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is more concentrated and may be more sensitive [1] Strategy - High-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Low-sulfur: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has been rising significantly, with domestic gold jewelry brands exceeding 1210 RMB per gram, marking an increase of over 130 RMB per gram in the past month [1]. Price Movements - On October 14, 2023, the price of gold jewelry from Chow Tai Fook rose from 1190 RMB per gram to 1215 RMB per gram, an increase of 25 RMB in one day [1]. - The price of gold jewelry from Chow Sang Sang increased from 1188 RMB per gram to 1213 RMB per gram [1]. - Lao Miao Gold's price for gold jewelry reached 1218 RMB per gram [3]. Market Performance - The spot gold price reached a new high of 4140 USD per ounce on October 14, 2023, with a year-to-date increase of over 57% [3]. - The A-share precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, 2023, with companies like Western Gold hitting the daily limit [6]. - The recent rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to strong safe-haven demand, renewed tariff risks, and ongoing expectations for monetary easing [6].

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with spot gold touching $4080 per ounce and COMEX gold futures surpassing $4100 per ounce, marking increases of approximately 55% and 56% year-to-date respectively [1] - Silver prices have surged over 70% this year, outperforming gold [1] Market Performance - On October 13, the A-share precious metals sector rose nearly 7%, with notable gains in stocks such as Western Gold (601069) and Zhaojin Gold (000506) [3] - U.S. gold stocks also saw pre-market gains, with Coeur Mining rising over 7% and other companies like Harmony Gold and Barrick Mining showing significant increases [3] Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with major brands adjusting their prices upwards; for instance, Chow Tai Fook raised its price from 1180 to 1190 yuan per gram [3][4] Investment Sentiment - Huatai Futures Research Team maintains a "cautiously bullish" stance on gold and silver, citing tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing as factors driving prices higher [5] - The precious metals index has risen over 113% this year, significantly outperforming the broader market, with several stocks doubling in value [5][6] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the precious metals sector include Zhaojin Gold with a 254.66% increase and Western Gold with a 187.34% increase year-to-date [6] - Hunan Gold has the smallest increase among the listed stocks at 49.21% [6] Risk Advisory - Silver YS (601212) issued a risk warning after its stock price surged 40.10% over four consecutive trading days, indicating potential for future declines [7]

以下文章来源于紫金天风期货研究所 ，作者刘诗瑶 紫金天风期货研究所 . 紫金天风期货研究所官方订阅号 尽管市场始终对特朗普的关税威胁保持警惕，但此次冲突恰逢美国联邦政府停摆期间，显著加剧了市 场波动。上周五，标普500指数下跌2 . 7%，创下自4月10日以来最大单日跌幅，美元指数同步走弱， 而黄金价格则出现上涨。 本轮关税升级更像是美方对中国稀土管制措施的被动回应。鉴于中国在稀土产业链中占据全方位主导 地位，稀土已成为中美博弈中一项精准而具威慑力的战略工具。 从战术角度来看，在11月1日新关税正式生效之前，双方仍存在协商空间，关税税率也存在回旋余 地。与今年4月特朗普对全球征收高额关税的情形不同，本次关税升级预计不会简单重复当时的市场走 势。一方面，4月关税范围广泛、幅度惊人，对全球贸易情绪造成系统性冲击；而本次冲突更具针对 性，其溢出效应和可持续性仍待观察。 文 | 刘诗瑶 来源 | 紫金天风期货研究所 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 8月下旬以来，黄金与白银涨势如虹，涨幅分别突破20%与30%。对黄金而言，无论是政府停摆还是关税风险 重燃，一系列利多因素正接踵而至，使其成为法币信用时代当之无愧的 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, with notable stocks like Western Gold, Zhaojin Gold, and others experiencing significant gains [2] - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,078 per ounce, while spot silver increased over 2% to $51.71 per ounce [2] - Huatai Futures research team indicated that renewed tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing are driving gold prices to new highs [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, which is perceived as a significant fiscal risk, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets, thus boosting gold prices [2] - There remains strong uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, but the market leans towards a potential cut in October, providing further support for gold [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has announced a 100% tariff increase on Chinese imports, leading to a surge in gold prices and a strong performance in the rare earth sector [1] Group 1: Gold Market - On October 13, gold prices on Comex futures reached a new historical high of $4060 per ounce due to the announcement of tariffs [1] - The gold ETF (518680) opened with over a 2% increase and has seen a year-to-date rise of nearly 55%, ranking first among 14 gold ETFs over the past year [1] - As of October 10, the gold ETF (518680) reached a record share of 452 million, the highest since its listing and the largest among similar ETFs [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth ETF (159713) experienced a peak increase of over 3% in early trading, closing with a rise of 2.52% [1] - Notable stocks within the index include Jiuling Technology, which rose over 14%, and AnTai Technology, which hit the daily limit, while Baogang Co. increased by over 9% [1] Group 3: Tariff Impact - President Trump announced that starting November 1, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imports, which is an additional charge on top of existing tariffs [1] - The U.S. will also implement export controls on "all critical software" on the same date, indicating a significant rise in tariff risks [1] - Recent market sentiment driven by risk aversion is expected to continue supporting the prices of gold and other resource commodities in the medium to long term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4] - Options: Put on hold [4] Core View of the Report - The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations have jointly pushed the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Macroeconomic Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, gold and silver continued their strong performance. U.S. President Trump announced that starting from November 1, a new 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese imports, an additional part on top of the existing paid tariffs. The U.S. will also implement export controls on "all key software" on the same day, significantly increasing tariff risks. The bill proposed by the U.S. Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate, and the overall U.S. fiscal risk remains prominent. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that there were increasing differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate cut path. Although most officials supported further rate cuts this year, 7 officials believed that no further cuts were needed, and only Fed Governor Milan supported a larger 50-basis-point cut. The market has strengthened the pricing of a rate cut in October, with the Fedwatch showing a 98.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October [1]. Fundamental Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,728 kilograms from the previous week, while silver warehouse receipts decreased by 23,221 kilograms to 1,169,061 kilograms. In the Comex inventory, this week's Comex gold inventory decreased by 170,212.58 ounces to 39,940,669.57 ounces, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 9,409,653.79 ounces to 522,463,797.41 ounces. In the precious metal ETFs, in the week of October 10 (currently the latest), the gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 2.28 tons to 1,017.16 tons, and the silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 274.06 tons to 15,444 tons. As of September 23, 2025, in terms of CFTC positions, the net long speculative positions in gold increased by 0.13% to 266,749 contracts, and the net long positions in silver increased by 1.43% to 52,276 contracts. In the week of October 10, 2025, the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.51% from the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell by 2.49%, and the photovoltaic sector fell by 0.05%. As of September 29, 2025 (the latest), the photovoltaic price index was reported at 15.74, up 0.01 from the previous period. As of September 15, 2025, the photovoltaic manager index was reported at 119.66, a month-on-month decrease of 5.43 [2]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations jointly push the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price [3]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4]. - Options: Put on hold [4].

Investor worries that Wall Street's record stock rally would soon fizzle loomed large on Friday after tariffs re-emerged as a market risk. ...