金融市场对避免全球同步衰退这一最坏情景松了一口气。但如果对高通胀和经济恶化的警惕 性减弱，特朗普利用关税作为武器的风险将进一步增加。"对中国高水平额外关税的持续，将 成为2025年下半年出口减少的原因之一"…… 美国政府8月7日启动了大规模的对等关税，这将进一步给全球经济施加下行压力。预计美国 将在短期内陷入1%的增长，日本和中国也将减速。4月以后持续升温的对经济衰退的过度悲 观情绪有所缓解，但这反而支撑了特朗普的强硬态度，招致新一轮高关税，这种讽刺的格局 仍在持续。 避免最坏情况，特朗普的自信是危险 很多国家和地区的对等关税税率比4月公布的数据有所降低。因此，美国摩根士丹利8月5日预 测的年底（10月至12月）全球增长率将达到2.6%，比4月时预测的2.2%有所上调。由于关 美国总统特朗普的自信是全球经济的危险（Reuters） 税对经济的负面影响不如4月时的预期严重，美国和欧元区的增长预期也从0.6%上调到了 1.0%。 金融市场对避免全球同步衰退这一最坏情景松了一口气。美国股市在高位保持稳定，特朗普8 月4日在社交媒体上自信地表示："美国再次变得非常富有，处于历史上最强的状态"。 但如果对高通胀和经济恶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent classification of gold bars by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) as taxable items could disrupt the global gold market and significantly impact Switzerland, the largest refining center for gold [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. currently imposes a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, with gold being a major export from Switzerland to the U.S. [2]. - Switzerland exported $61.5 billion worth of gold to the U.S. in the last six months of the previous year, which could result in approximately $24 billion in tariffs based on current rates [3]. - The price of gold has risen by 27% since the end of last year, reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce, driven by inflation concerns, tariff risks, and the weakening of the dollar [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The classification of gold bars as taxable items may lead to a significant decline in gold trade between Switzerland and the U.S., as indicated by Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Precious Metals Manufacturers and Traders Association [4]. - Due to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, several Swiss gold refiners have temporarily reduced or halted exports to the U.S. [5]. Group 3: Customs Code Importance - The one-kilogram gold bar is the most commonly traded item on the New York futures market and constitutes a substantial portion of Switzerland's gold exports to the U.S. [4]. - Earlier this year, traders rushed to import gold into the U.S. before the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, leading to record-high gold inventories in New York and a temporary shortage in London [4]. - The new CBP document challenges the previous understanding that certain gold products could be exempt from tariffs, highlighting the complexities of customs code classifications [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the nomination of a temporary Fed governor by the US President has boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, weakening the US dollar index. However, the 10 - year US Treasury auction was unexpectedly weak, leading to higher Treasury yields. The implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" has triggered risk - aversion sentiment, cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Trade deficit has decreased, and net exports' contribution to the economy has weakened. Policy support for child - rearing may boost consumption, and the extension of the China - US tariff truce by 90 days has reduced short - term tariff uncertainties. The expectation of a Fed rate cut has opened up space for domestic monetary policy and led to RMB appreciation, increasing domestic risk appetite [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks: stocks are expected to oscillate strongly at high levels in the short term; bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at high levels; different commodity sectors have varying trends, with some being more volatile and others more stable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US dollar index is weakening, US Treasury yields are rising, and risk - aversion sentiment is increasing due to tariff policies. Domestically: Economic growth is slowing, trade deficit is decreasing, and policies are supporting consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and Fed rate - cut expectations are affecting domestic risk appetite [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as rare earths, precious metals, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market is rising. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and investors should focus on China - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, precious metals rose slightly. Trade tensions and weak US economic data, such as poor non - farm payrolls and rising initial jobless claims, have increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September to over 90%. The inflation rebound has made the stagflation feature of the US economy more obvious. Precious metals are expected to remain in a slightly strong oscillating pattern in the short term [5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Thursday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and demand continued to weaken. Steel inventory increased, and apparent consumption decreased. Supply was high due to high steel mill profits. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore prices weakened. Iron - water production is expected to decline further, and if northern region production restrictions are implemented, ore demand will weaken. Supply has some fluctuations, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [7]. Glass - On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply pressure is high, but there are expectations of production cuts due to anti - involution policies. Demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and glass prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8][9]. Ferrous Alloys - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, prices continued to weaken. Demand from the steel industry is okay. Production in some regions is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday, the soda - ash futures contract oscillated weakly. Supply is in an oversupply situation, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: German industrial output declined, and new US tariffs have increased global economic pressure. Copper inventory is at a high level, and terminal demand may weaken [10]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by the expectation of a Fed rate cut, LME aluminum previously led the rise but has now slowed. Fundamentally, domestic and LME inventories are increasing, and short - term upward space is limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Waste - aluminum supply is tight, production costs are rising, and it is in the demand off - season. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but with limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: Supply - side开工率 has increased significantly, but demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. Inventories are increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Thursday, the lithium - carbonate futures contract rose significantly. Market concerns about production suspension have increased price volatility, and cautious observation is recommended [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Thursday, the industrial - silicon futures contract rose. The increase in coking - coal prices may drive the price, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [14]. - **Polysilicon**: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract declined. The photovoltaic industry has anti - involution expectations, and the spot price provides support. With increasing warehouse receipts, prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is waiting for a potential meeting between the US and Russian presidents, and oil prices are falling. Oil prices will continue to oscillate widely, and an oversupply situation may occur at the end of the year [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is testing the key resistance level. Port inventory is slightly decreasing, but supply pressure will increase in the future, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: Crude - oil price decline has weakened cost support. Inventory is neutral, and demand is weak. It will continue to oscillate weakly [16]. - **PX**: Due to plant shutdowns, demand has decreased slightly. The supply - demand pattern is still tight, and it will oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA plants and terminal orders [16]. - **PTA**: Processing fees are low, leading to new plant shutdowns. Spot trading is weak, and downstream demand is slowly recovering. The upside space is limited [16]. - **Short - fiber**: Affected by the decline in crude - oil prices and sector resonance, short - fiber prices are falling. Inventory is accumulating, and it may continue to be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Methanol**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to supply - demand pressure [17]. - **PP**: The anti - involution sentiment has cooled, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to strong supply and weak demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose. US soybean export sales in the week ending July 31 were higher than expected [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Domestic soybean - meal spot prices are expected to oscillate around 2900 yuan/ton. Rapeseed - meal prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: Soybean - oil spot trading has improved, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage. Rapeseed - oil fundamentals are stable [20][21]. - **Fats and Oils**: CBOT soybean - oil futures fell, and BMD palm - oil futures rose. Malaysia's palm - oil production and inventory increased in July, and exports were weak. The domestic short - term soybean - palm oil spread may rebound [21]. - **Corn**: Corn futures are falling, and spot prices are weak. Supply is expected to be sufficient in August, and high basis provides some support [21]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and slaughterhouse orders are expected to increase after the Beginning of Autumn. Pig prices may stabilize [22].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美联储表态鸽派，关税谈判接近尾声，短期盘面调整。中长期来看，多国货币政策 | | | 回调做多 | 宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | ★★ | | 【770-794】 | | 白银 | | 美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作用明显，白银基本面变化不大， | | | 反弹做多 | 工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银长期向上趋势不变。不过短期白银品种弹性 | | ★★ | | 较大，短期试多长期做多。【9000-9300】 | | | | 海内外宏观政策进入窗口期，铜精矿干扰和美元疲软帮助铜止跌反弹，但是需求淡 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 季叠加海内外库存累库限制铜反弹空间，短期建议等待铜充分回调后再试多，中长 | | ★★ | | 期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77500，79500】 | | 锌 | 海外 | LME 锌库存连续去化超预期，国内需求疲软继续累库。锌外强内弱，沪锌跟随 | | | 反弹沽空 | 伦锌止跌反弹，建议锌前期空单止盈兑现后 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the textile and apparel industry [1] Core Insights - Adidas reported a 14% year-on-year revenue growth in its brand under constant currency for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching €12.105 billion, a 7% increase compared to the previous year [4][19] - The report highlights that all regional markets for Adidas achieved double-digit growth under constant currency [20] - The overall textile and apparel sector has shown a decline of 2.14% in the SW textile and apparel index, underperforming the broader market [22] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Adidas' FY2025H1 revenue increased by 7% to €12.105 billion, with a net profit growth of 121% to €798 million [4][19] - The company's gross margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 51.9%, driven by lower product and transportation costs [5][19] - The report anticipates that for FY2025, Adidas will maintain its guidance of high single-digit revenue growth under constant currency, with operating profit expected to be between €1.7 billion and €1.8 billion [20] Market Dynamics - The textile and apparel sector's retail sales growth for the first half of 2025 was 3.1%, with sports and leisure goods showing a robust growth of 22.2% [11] - The report notes that the SW textile and apparel sector has lagged behind the broader market, with various sub-sectors experiencing declines [22] Regional Performance - In the European market, Adidas' revenue grew by 9% to €3.983 billion, while in North America, it increased by 6% to €2.523 billion [21] - The Greater China market saw an 8% revenue increase to €1.827 billion, and emerging markets experienced an 18% growth to €1.632 billion [21] Valuation Metrics - As of August 1, the PE-TTM for SW textile manufacturing was 20.94, while for SW apparel and home textiles, it was 27.69, indicating high valuation levels compared to historical averages [30]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to the interplay between policy expectations and economic data, with a focus on U.S. economic performance and monetary policy changes [2][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Data and Monetary Policy - Analysts suggest that the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs is diminishing, leading to a renewed focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [3][4]. - Weak U.S. employment data and downward revisions of historical data indicate a cooling labor market, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts in upcoming meetings [3][5]. - If U.S. economic indicators, such as retail sales and CPI, continue to show weakness, it could further support expectations for a more accommodative monetary policy [4][5]. Group 2: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a high-level trading range, with inflation expectations potentially supporting prices if CPI data confirms rising costs [2][4]. - Gold prices are testing key resistance levels, with analysts noting that a breakthrough above $3,370 per ounce could lead to further gains towards $3,440-$3,450 [4]. - Silver prices are anticipated to follow gold's trend, driven by macroeconomic easing expectations rather than supply-demand fundamentals [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The oil market in the fourth quarter faces greater supply - demand easing pressure due to OPEC+ production increase, but is supported by sanctions risks and peak - season demand. The price of precious metals maintains a buy - on - dips strategy in the shock trend. For most industrial metals, there are short - term supply and demand pressures, and the prices are expected to be volatile. The shipping index is expected to decline, and most agricultural products' prices are affected by factors such as weather and trade policies, showing a volatile pattern [1][2] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, which brings supply - demand pressure to the oil market in the fourth quarter. After the price correction this week, there is still upward risk due to secondary sanctions on Russian oil. Also, pay attention to the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs by August 12 [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Crude oil leads the decline of oil - related futures. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the FU - LU crack spread is expected to remain weak [20] - **Asphalt**: Venezuelan crude oil inflows to China increased by 3.8% in July. The August production plan is lower than that in July, but some refineries may over - produce. Demand in South China recovers slowly, and the overall commercial inventory increases slightly. The price follows the direction of crude oil with limited fluctuations [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP is significantly reduced, but the spot discount narrows. The supply is relatively loose, and the domestic demand has bottom - line support. The spot price has limited room to decline further [22] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals maintain a strong shock. The market is worried about the authenticity of US data and economic prospects, and the interest - rate market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts in September. Adopt a buy - on - dips strategy [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The supply loss rate in the second half of the year is expected to increase. The social inventory increased to 135,900 tons on Monday. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to increase, and the demand feedback is negative. The price may be under pressure to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to the support around 20,200 yuan. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton in August [4][8] - **Zinc**: The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. Pay attention to policy changes during the "Golden September and Silver October". Wait for opportunities to short at high positions [7] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market returns to fundamentals. The upstream price support weakens, and the overall inventory is still high. Actively intervene in short positions as the rebound is in the middle - to - late stage [9] - **Tin**: The tin price declined overnight. Pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The iron - water output remains high, the production increase rate of silicon - manganese is lower than expected, and the manganese ore price increases slightly. The price bottom gradually rises, but the upside is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The iron - water output is slightly down, the demand is fair, the supply is slightly up, and the inventory is slightly increased. The price is under increasing pressure [18] - **Rare Metals** - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuates. The downstream replenishes goods as the price drops. The production of smelters decreases week - on - week. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [11] - **Cobalt**: The report does not mention cobalt - related content Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price continues to decline with reduced positions. The supply in major production areas increases marginally, and the demand growth in August is uncertain. The price is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term [12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price slightly declines. The supply continues to put pressure, and the spot processing margin needs to be repaired. Pay attention to the cost and demand in the short and medium terms respectively [26] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continues to decline due to weak supply - demand and oil - price drag. The supply increases, and the port inventory rises [27] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The prices follow the raw materials. The short - fiber industry may be boosted in the peak season, and the bottle - chip processing margin is limited by over - capacity [28] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US soybean may have an early - harvest expectation. The domestic oil - mill soybean - meal inventory increases. The soybean - meal market is expected to fluctuate before the tariff issue is clear [32] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US soybean may have a good harvest. The Chinese soybean oil may strengthen in the medium term. The Malaysian palm oil has weak short - term supply - demand. Adopt a low - buying strategy [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus is on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The rapeseed - related futures prices are expected to fluctuate [34] - **Corn**: The continuous release of imported corn affects market expectations. The Dalian corn futures may continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [36] - **Cotton**: The US cotton has normal weather, and the Chinese cotton has slow inventory digestion and weak downstream demand. The 9 - 1 spread may rebound. Adopt a wait - and - see or intraday - trading strategy [39] - **Sugar**: The US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's 25/26 sugar - production season increases. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate [40] - **Apple**: The price of early - maturing apples starts to decline. The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index declines slightly. The shipping companies' cargo - collection pressure increases, and the short - term view is bearish [19] - **Building Materials** - **Glass**: The glass market is weak with inventory accumulation. The market returns to real - situation trading [29] - **Timber**: The timber demand and supply improve, and the futures price is expected to rise [42] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper - pulp price declines. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations [43] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The stock market rises, and the futures - index contracts all close up. The market sentiment is relatively positive in the medium term. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [44] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury - bond futures fluctuate. The price spread between near - and far - month contracts widens. The yield curve is expected to steepen [45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro层面，关税扰动贯穿7月，月初市场悲观，随着贸易协定落地、关税调降，市场情绪回暖；美国二季度经济数据有韧性，劳动市场稳健，美联储偏鹰，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [4] - 成本方面，印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿供给趋向宽松，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，但矿价走弱迹象不明显 [4] - 基本面，7月国内不锈钢产量预期大幅收缩，印尼小幅环增但难补国内减量；三元材料产量小幅环增，消费整体走弱；纯镍出口窗口敞开，供给小幅探涨，基本面供增需减边际走弱 [4] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面边际变量对价格影响有限；上旬宏观压力预期强，下旬有不确定性；基本面暂无改善预期，镍价或延续震荡运行 [4][47] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - 7月沪镍主力合约震荡运行，月初因美国信函关税压力镍价下行，后随贸易协议签署、关税调降而反弹；基本面无明显驱动，供给边际修正，需求边际走弱，现货库存有累库迹象 [9] - 7月精炼镍升贴水高位回落，金川镍升贴水从月初2600元/吨降至7月30日2300元/吨，进口镍升贴水同期从650元/吨降至550元/吨，升贴水回落后维持低位震荡 [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas: Tariff Turmoil and Fluctuating Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - 7月上旬特朗普向23个国家发关税信函，关税强度20 - 50，中下旬关税风波缓解，美国与多国签署贸易协议，协议关税低于信函税率；部分国家仍面临高对等关税，新协议落地待观察 [13] - 美国经济数据喜忧参半，6月核心PCE物价指数等显示通胀和消费有韧性，但7月非农就业等数据走弱，劳动力市场有结构性失衡；制造业PMI未延续修正趋势，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [14] - 美国居民需求有韧性是经济增长基石，但需警惕关税引发滞涨压力 [15] Domestic: Clear Path to Anti-Involution and Stable Economic Structure - 反内卷政策预期延续，政策框架日益完善，但7月底政治局会议纪要措辞调整引发市场情绪反复，治理内卷路径明确但具体量化目标待明确 [16] - 投资端6月固定资产投资同比增长2.8%，房地产投资占比回落；消费端社零累计同比+5.0%，剔除汽车后增速回落，居民自主消费驱动力不足；出口6月总额同比增长5.64%，关税对出口影响不明确，需警惕转口贸易压力 [17] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 1. Alleviation of Shortage and Possible Decline in Ore Prices - 印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿开采效率提升，紧缺格局缓解，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，菲律宾8月镍矿预售成交环比回落，镍矿供给有宽松预期，价格或走弱 [22] - 6月中国镍矿进口量同比回落7.21%，进口自菲律宾占比93.23%；7月25日国内港口库存较6月末大幅累库139万吨 [23] 2. Export Window Remains Open and Supply is Ample - 7月全国精炼镍产量3.28万吨，同比+13.69%，开工率61.08%；冶炼端亏损幅度收窄但仍为负，上游现金流压力或凸显，需警惕下半年供给扰动 [26] - 6月中国进口精炼镍17010吨，同比增长119.71%，进口增量来自挪威，部分国家进口量下滑；出口10143吨，同比-5.66%，7月出口利润回落 [27] 3. Easing Pressure on Ferronickel but Need Time for Correction - 7月高镍生铁价格先跌后涨，10 - 12%高镍生铁到港含税报价月初910.5元/镍点，月中900元/镍点，月底912元/镍点 [30] - 7月中国镍生铁产量环比-0.04%，印尼同环比+28.14%/-1.73%；仅山东火法BF工艺有利润，国内RKEF及EF工艺亏损；国内不锈钢产量7月预期走弱，印尼或增加；国内300系不锈钢库存高位去库不顺畅 [31] - 6月国内镍铁进口同比+50.05%，主要来自印尼；不锈钢进口同比-16.17%，出口同比-15.33%，进出口规模为年内最低 [32] 4. Recovery of the Nickel Sulfate Market and Marginal Improvement in Supply and Demand - 7月硫酸镍价格走势分化，电池级硫酸镍价格从月初28500元/吨降至月末27900元/吨，电镀级硫酸镍价格从28050元/吨涨至28550元/吨 [38] - 5月硫酸镍产量同环比+4.77%/+17.3%，7月三元材料产量同环比+16.7%/+5.8%；高冰镍产硫酸镍工艺利润率3.6%盈利，其他原料工艺亏损；6月硫酸镍进口量约1.32吨，出口782吨 [39] 5. Conservative Policy Expectations and Slowing Consumption Growth - 1 - 6月新能源汽车累计销量同比+40.31%，产量同比+41.37%，产销比近乎持平；7月1 - 20日新能源乘用车零售同比增长23%，较上月同期下降12%，消费增速自6月退坡 [41] - 后期新能源汽车消费面临居民自主消费依赖补贴、补贴资金投放有序及高基数压力，消费或维持增长但数据表现放缓 [42] 6. Bearish Fundamentals and Possible Accumulation of Pure Nickel Inventory - 截至7月25日国内精炼镍社会库存较6月末累库2438吨，7月31日SHFE和LME库存较上月增加，全球两大交易所库存同期增加约5170吨 [44] - 后期纯镍去库曲折，硫酸镍市场热度难延续，冶炼端供给或维持高位，预计纯镍库存将再度累库 [44] 3.4 Market Outlook - 供给方面，出口窗口在，供给或高位稳中偏弱 [47] - 需求方面，钢企不锈钢排产低，新能源消费降速，需求端无亮点，稳中偏弱 [47] - 成本方面，镍矿供给宽松，成本重心下移，中性 [47] - 宏观方面，关税风险反复，上旬压力强，下旬有不确定性，中性 [47] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面改善预期不明显，镍价或延续震荡运行 [47]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, Haier Smart Home, and others, while Lulu Lemon is rated as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the earnings season in Europe and America is causing market volatility, exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding tariffs from the Trump administration [4][6]. - The performance of various sectors shows that gambling, overseas cosmetics, and pet products are outperforming the MSCI China index, while sectors like luxury goods and overseas sportswear are experiencing significant declines [4][12]. Sector Performance Overview - Weekly performance: Gambling > Overseas Cosmetics > Pets > Gold and Jewelry > Snacks > Domestic Cosmetics > Domestic Sportswear > Credit Cards > US Hotels > Daily Necessities > Luxury Goods > Overseas Sportswear, with respective weekly changes of 0.6%, -0.6%, -1.6%, -2.2%, -2.2%, -2.5%, -2.7%, -4.5%, -5.5%, -6.6%, -7.6%, and -9.0% [5][15]. - Monthly performance: Gambling > Domestic Sportswear > Domestic Cosmetics > Credit Cards > Luxury Goods > Overseas Cosmetics > US Hotels > Snacks > Daily Necessities > Gold and Jewelry > Overseas Sportswear > Pets, with respective monthly changes of 4.3%, -0.3%, -3.1%, -4.2%, -4.5%, -5.1%, -5.7%, -8.1%, -8.4%, -11.7%, -12.4%, and -14.4% [12][15]. - Year-to-date performance: Gold and Jewelry > Domestic Cosmetics > Overseas Cosmetics > Pets > Snacks > Daily Necessities > Credit Cards > Gambling > Domestic Sportswear > US Hotels > Overseas Sportswear > Luxury Goods, with respective year-to-date changes of 142.3%, 49.4%, 35.6%, 34.8%, 20.9%, 20.7%, 7.4%, 3.3%, 2.4%, -1.5%, -11.0%, and -13.7% [12][15]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that most sectors are still undervalued compared to their average valuations over the past five years, with expected PE ratios for 2025 as follows: - Overseas Sportswear: 31.7x (51% of 5-year average) - Domestic Sportswear: 12.8x (74% of 5-year average) - Gold and Jewelry: 24.7x (43% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 23.3x (41% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 17.4x (26% of 5-year average) - Overseas Cosmetics: 39.7x (62% of 5-year average) - Domestic Cosmetics: 30.9x (58% of 5-year average) - Pets: 41.7x (45% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 22.4x (37% of 5-year average) - Daily Necessities: 23.3x (71% of 5-year average) - US Hotels: 28.9x (18% of 5-year average) - Credit Cards: 29.7x (59% of 5-year average) [10][19].

Group 1 - President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan just hours before the tariff deadline, despite ongoing negotiations for more favorable agreements [1] - Employment growth has sharply declined over the past three months, with an increase of only 73,000 jobs in July and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months, resulting in an average increase of only 35,000 jobs over the last three months, the worst level since the pandemic began [1] - The report has raised expectations for a rate cut in September to 80.0% [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues to refuse to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve Board should take control [1] - Bond prices have continued to rise as investors bet on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, leading to an increase in gold prices [1]