投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 n 资产观点：国内权益市场的政策预期和额外流动性依然可以提供上⾏的 ⽀撑。国债整体中性，短端机会好于⻓端，但赔率有限。贵⾦属中的⻩⾦ 维持多头标配，⽩银暂时观望。有⾊⾦属在产业逻辑⽀撑下仍然向好，但 短期内市场挤压拥挤交易泡沫，待市场波动率降低同时，可抓住短期下跌 的机会逢低布局。⿊⾊商品整体偏震荡，原油或在地缘⽀撑下有所上⾏， 但不确定性较⼤，因此建议保持观望。 n ⻛险提⽰：地缘冲突加剧⻛险，关税冲突⼴泛升级，国内增量政策和经 济修复不及预期，美联储货币政策⼤幅偏离预期。 • 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前。 n 今⽇市场：根据Wind数据，今日国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属 涨幅居前，铂金涨10.58%；基本金属全部上涨，沪锡涨6.61%；非金属建 材全部上涨，玻璃涨0.56%；化工品跌幅居前，苯乙烯跌2.87%；农副产品 多数下跌，原木跌1.90%；黑色系全部下跌，硅铁跌1.44%；能源品全部下 跌，低硫燃料油跌1.22%；新能源材料多数下跌，工业硅跌0.82%；航运期 货全部下跌，集运指数(欧线)跌0.39%；油脂油料多数下跌，豆粕跌0. ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On February 9, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with platinum rising over 10%, silver over 8%, and palladium over 7% [1][2]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1664.20 points, up 34.86 points or 2.14% from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall commodity index also increased by 48.07 points, closing at 2294.88 points, reflecting a similar 2.14% rise [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced a strong rebound, led by platinum's increase of 10.58%, silver's rise of 8.90%, and palladium's gain of 7.59% [2]. - Factors contributing to this rally include a weaker US dollar, increased buying interest, and China's central bank's gold purchases in January, which totaled 40,000 ounces, exceeding the previous month's 30,000 ounces [2]. - Despite positive consumer confidence in the US, the dollar index was not significantly boosted, and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supported bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Insights - Industrial metals also saw gains, with lithium carbonate rising over 3% due to ongoing inventory depletion [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate briefly surpassed 140,000 yuan per ton, supported by a tight supply-demand balance despite lower production during the Chinese New Year [3]. - Data showed that lithium carbonate weekly production was 20,744 tons, down 825 tons week-on-week, while social inventory decreased by 2,019 tons, reinforcing the expectation of sustained demand [3]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Trends - Styrene experienced a significant drop of nearly 3%, attributed to weakening cost support from oil prices and declining demand as the Chinese New Year approached [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in styrene supply due to returning maintenance schedules, while downstream demand is expected to decrease during the holiday [4]. - For silicon and manganese silicon, both commodities fell over 1%, with current low iron water production limiting upward price potential [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding upcoming US economic data releases, which may impact precious metals [2]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face short-term limitations on price rebounds due to macroeconomic influences and slowing transaction volumes as the holiday approaches [3]. - The outlook for silicon and manganese silicon prices will depend on the balance between supply excess and demand resilience in the steel sector [5].

每经AI快讯，2月9日，国内商品期货主力合约早盘涨跌互现。截至午间收盘，铂涨超10%，沪银涨超 8%，钯涨超6%，沪锡涨超4%，沪金、碳酸锂涨超3%，烧碱涨超2%；跌幅方面，原木跌超2%，焦炭、 焦煤、低硫燃料油（LU）跌超1%，沥青、生猪跌近1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF (HGER) provides diversified exposure to commodities, focusing on inflation-sensitive assets and dynamically adjusting gold weighting to optimize returns in inflationary conditions [6]. Fund Activity - Echo45 Advisors LLC reported a new position in HGER, acquiring 127,402 shares valued at approximately $3.16 million for the fiscal fourth quarter ending December 31, 2025 [2]. - This acquisition represents 1.8% of Echo45 Advisors' reportable assets under management as of December 31, 2025 [8]. ETF Overview - As of February 5, 2026, HGER's share price was $26.50, with a 1-year total return of 21.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 9.35 percentage points [8]. - The ETF offers a dividend yield of 6.54% [4]. Investment Strategy - The fund targets efficient diversification across at least 15 of the 24 most liquid commodity futures, with a focus on inflation sensitivity and economic significance [9]. - The strategy includes a dynamic gold weighting based on a proprietary scarcity debasement indicator, with quarterly rebalancing [9]. Performance Metrics - Over the past year, including dividends, HGER has produced a total return of 22.8%, and a total return of 46.1% over the past three years [10]. - Gold constitutes 40.9% of the ETF's total holdings, which may pose risks for conservative investors [11].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a significant decline, with most commodities showing a downward trend in early trading on February 6, 2023 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Silver futures (沪银2604) dropped nearly 17%, closing at 18,387.00, reflecting a decrease of 16.78% [2]. - Platinum futures (铂) fell over 11%, with a reported decline of 11.92% [2]. - Lithium carbonate (碳酸锂2605) decreased by over 6%, with a price of 128,400.00, marking a 6.09% drop [2]. - Tin futures (沪锡2603) saw a decline of nearly 6%, closing at 357,290.00, which is a 5.79% decrease [2]. - Gold futures (沪金2604) fell by more than 4%, with a price of 1,062.74, indicating a 4.48% drop [2]. - Other commodities such as glass, coking coal, iron ore, and cotton yarn also experienced slight declines [1].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures opened mostly higher, with precious metals leading the gains. Influenced by a decline in risk appetite and a weakening US dollar, international gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, with gold prices recording the largest single-day increase since 2009 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose over 8%, while gold and tin increased by more than 6%. Platinum gained over 5%, and copper (both domestic and international) rose by more than 3% [2]. - Spot gold prices surpassed $5,100 per ounce, increasing by 2% during the day, while spot silver rose by 1.68% to $86.852 per ounce, having previously dropped over 2% [4]. Group 2: Price Movements - Specific price movements include: - Shanghai silver (2604) at 22,854.00, up 8.11% - Shanghai tin (2603) at 398,660.00, up 6.79% - Shanghai gold (2604) at 1,130.00, up 6.19% - Platinum at 590.50, up 5.06% - Lithium carbonate at 151,600.00, up 4.34% - International copper (2603) at 93,330.00, up 3.76% - Shanghai copper (2603) at 105,300.00, up 3.61% [4]. Group 3: Retail Gold Prices - Retail gold prices have increased, with the price at Chow Sang Sang reaching 1,600 yuan per gram, and the price at Lao Miao at 1,571 yuan per gram [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.93% today [1][3]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.36%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The sector with the largest increase was the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index, up 4.38%, and the sector with the smallest increase was the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, up 0.08% [1][3]. - Among the theme indices, only the Oilseeds and Oils Index fell by -0.01%, while the rest of the theme indices rose. The theme index with the largest increase was the Mini Composite Index, up 1.43%, and the theme index with the smallest increase was the Black Raw Materials Index, up 0.27% [1][3]. - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the single - variety index with the largest increase was Lithium Carbonate, up 11.82%, and the single - variety index with the largest decrease was Silver, down - 13.64% [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Nanhua Commodity Index Market Data | Index Name | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | Daily Change | Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2758.41 | 2733.02 | 25.38 | 0.93% | 7.28% | 13.21% | 0.55 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 2174.24 | 2182.21 | - 7.96 | - 0.36% | 27.71% | 3.82% | | | Industrial Goods Index MHII | 3644.59 | 3594.36 | 50.23 | 1.40% | - 6.21% | 14.59% | - 0.43 | | Metal Index MHMI | 7150.53 | 6982.18 | 168.35 | 2.41% | 12.06% | 14.01% | 0.86 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNF | 1972.76 | | | | | | | | Black Index NHFI | 2519.61 | 2512.72 | 6.89 | 0.27% | - 5.51% | 16.31% | - 0.34 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1057.60 | 1056.80 | 0.81 | 0.08% | | | | | Mini Composite Index NHCIMi | 1204.34 | 1187.38 | 16.97 | 1.43% | 14.64% | | 0.07 | | Oil and Chemical Industry Index NHEI | 1004.87 | 996.23 | 8.64 | 0.87% | 0.68% | 22.15% | 0.03 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 940.37 | 932.44 | 7.93 | 0.85% | 2.77% | 15.61% | 0.18 | | Fuel and Chemical Industry Index NHCCI | 956.65 | 951.80 | 4.85 | 0.51% | 1.78% | 14.93% | 0.12 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 1056.06 | 1053.23 | 2.83 | 0.27% | 0.02% | 17.28% | 0.00 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 694.45 | 690.97 | 3.48 | 0.50% | - 0.22% | 12.98% | - 0.02 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1234.61 | 1234.79 | - 0.18 | - 0.01% | 0.14% | 10.58% | 0.01 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 927.58 | 924.28 | 3.31 | 0.36% | 3.31% | 9.85% | 0.05 | [3] 3.2 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Change to Index Change - For different indices such as Nanhua Mini Composite Index, Nanhua Composite Index, Nanhua Industrial Goods Index, etc., various varieties have different positive or negative contributions to their changes. For example, for the Nanhua Composite Index, Gold has a positive contribution of 22.26%, while some varieties like Ethylene Glycol have a negative contribution [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Diagrams and Single - Variety Index Daily Changes - There are industry chain diagrams for energy and chemical, black, and agricultural product sectors, along with the daily changes of single - variety indices in these sectors. For example, in the energy and chemical sector, Glass rose 0.179 (1.52%) and Urea rose 0.95%; in the agricultural product sector, Palm Oil rose 0.89%, and Rapeseed Meal fell - 1.19% [3][5][6]

2月3日，国内商品期货早盘开盘，沪银跌超18%，沪锡跌超8%，原油跌逾4%，短纤、PTA等跌超1%，豆油、菜籽油等小幅下跌；氧化铝涨超1%，玻璃、 焦炭等小幅上涨。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银2604 | 21073.00 | -18.16% | | AG2604.SHF | | | | 沪锡2603 | 375710.00 | -8.56% | | SN2603.SHF | | | | 原油2603 | 452.00 | -4.38% | | SC2603.INE | | | | 燃油2603 | 2705.00 | -3.67% | | FU2603.SHF | | | | 低硫燃料油2604 | 3177.00 | -2.00% | | LU2604.INE | | | | 纯苯2603 | 6002.00 | -1.88% | | BZ2603.DCE | | | | 沪镍2603 | 134050.00 | -1.82% | | NI2603.SHF | | | | 沥青2603 | 3307.00 | -1.78% | | BU2603.S ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：豆类市场在宏观情绪转弱与基本面影响下整体承压。基本面核心矛盾在于全球供应充裕与国内 节前备货平淡的对抗。随着春节临近油厂开机率下降，豆粕库存有望继续减少，或对价格及基差形成支撑， 但全球丰产压力与宏观偏空氛围将限制上行空间，预计短期豆粕价格维持震荡偏弱格局，关注南美天气最 终定产及国内节后补库需求的实际强度。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观 ...

2026年02月03日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：COMEX 黄金收跌、白银收涨，呈现分化；伦敦现货金银延续大跌。国内沪金银夜盘弱势，沪银 | | 金 | 一度跌停。 | | 属 | 基本面：美国 1 月 ISM 制造业指数升至 52.6 大超预期，创 2022 年 2 月以来新高；美印达成贸易协议，对印 | | | 度对等关税从 25%降至 18%；美总统特使据称周五与伊外长会面。国内黄金 ETF 流入 4.8 吨，COMEX 黄金 | | | 库存为 1111.8 吨，-4；上期所黄金库存为 103.0 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1087.1 吨，+0.57； | | | COMEX 白银库存为 12623.1 吨，-73.6 吨；上期所白银库存为 462 吨，+7 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 15523 | | | 吨，-112.8 吨；金交所白银上周库存 504.5 吨，-1 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库存从 27183 吨增至 27814 吨；印 | | | 度 1 ...