投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-12 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡整理 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构主导的行情中。目前东南亚 产区处在割胶旺季，国内产区也持续 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The price of domestic thermal coal has been strong this week, and it is expected to continue to strengthen this summer. The resonance of multiple favorable factors, such as peak season and anti - involution policy disturbances, has driven the coal price to run strongly [4]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Varieties Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Price Performance**: As of August 7, the quotation of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 674 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton, and the increase rate continued to expand compared with last week. Since the low point in late June, the FOB price of 5500K at the port has increased by 64 yuan/ton in total, with a growth rate of 10.5% [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply of domestic thermal coal has been running smoothly this week. The peak season of thermal coal demand has performed well. The capacity utilization rate of non - power cement clinker is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. Coupled with the anti - involution rectification work in the coal industry boosting market sentiment, the atmosphere in the pit - mouth and port coal markets is still hot. The replenishment demand of downstream power plants continues to be released, and the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is high [4]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 7, the total inventory of thermal coal at 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.4819 billion tons, basically unchanged week - on - week and slightly lower than the inventory of the same period last year by 22400 tons. Since this summer, the coal inventory at northern ports has decreased by 834400 tons in total from the inventory peak in May, and the inventory in the intermediate link has been effectively reduced, supporting the coal price to stop falling and rebound [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that domestic commodity futures mostly rose on August 11, with significant increases in lithium carbonate, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [1] - Lithium carbonate reached a limit increase of 8%, while polysilicon and industrial silicon rose over 6% and 4% respectively [1] - Other commodities such as red dates, coking coal, rubber, palm oil, caustic soda, and coke also saw increases of over 2%, while rubber, stainless steel, apples, and hot-rolled coils rose over 1% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, eggs fell over 3%, and the shipping index for Europe dropped over 2% [1] - Additionally, commodities like soybean meal, crude oil, and fuel oil experienced declines of over 1% [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本周，国内动力煤价格维持强势运行，截至 8 月 7 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 动力煤报价 674 元/吨，周环比上涨 22 元/吨，涨幅较上周继续扩大。动力煤自 6 月下旬低点以来，5500K 港口平 仓价已累计上涨 64 元/吨，涨幅达到 10.5%。供需方面，本周国内动力煤供应平稳运行，电煤需 求旺季表现良好，非电端水泥熟料产能利用率显著高于去年同期，叠加煤炭行业反内卷整治工作 提振市场情绪，坑口、港口煤市氛围依然火热，下游电厂补 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：由于本周美国农业部报告预期偏空，短期美豆在缺乏天气题材和出口低迷的拖累下，期价持续 承压于 1000 美分整数关口。国内豆类市场内强外弱格局持续，交易围绕近弱远强的供应预期和成本推动 展开，远期大豆成本抬升构成豆粕价格的重要支撑，短期豆粕期价有望保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概 ...

原油系领跌玻璃纯碱表现疲弱 因俄美两国元首有望近期会晤，俄乌和谈有向好预期，地缘政治紧张情绪进一步降温，叠加OPEC+持 续增产以及石油消费将季节性转弱背景下，隔夜油价表现疲弱，带动国内原油系全线收跌，其中沥青增 仓破位下行，基本面方面，据南华期货分析，沥青供给端受山东部分炼厂复工带动，供给增加。而需求 端因华南、华东区域台风天气以及华北降雨抑制了需求释放，同时资金短缺尚未改善，旺季需求不及预 期。 玻璃、纯碱连续三天收跌，尽管煤炭现货价格上涨，对相关品种有成本支撑作用，但随着其涨幅收窄， 相关品种情绪边际转弱。基本面方面，银河期货分析称，纯碱供应增加，需求稳定，回归累库趋势，中 游货源释放，下游消耗前期库存，市场流动现货增加，现货下跌收基差；玻璃方面，随着期货价格下 跌，期限商货源释放，负反馈于现货市场，经过这一轮双月级别的上涨行情，无论是中游还是下游库存 都相对充足，短期补库意愿不强，且深加工订单未有明显好转，原片企业出货不佳，多数企业为促进出 货下调价格。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月8日电（郭洲洋、左元）8月8日，碳酸锂涨超7%，红枣涨超3%，菜粕涨超2%，苹果涨 超1%；SC原油、低硫燃 ...

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market opened with significant movements, including lithium carbonate, coking coal, and aluminum oxide contracts rising over 1% [1] - Conversely, soybean meal, European shipping rates, and caustic soda contracts experienced declines exceeding 1% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are diverse, with some commodities showing potential for price increases, while others are expected to experience price declines or remain range - bound. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated weakly. The US service PMI was lower than expected, increasing recession concerns. LME inventories accumulated, and domestic inventories also rose slightly. The trading strategy is to maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The 2509 contract's closing price increased slightly. Supply was high, while demand was in the off - season. The price may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract's closing price rose. Supply capacity was stable, and demand from electrolytic aluminum plants increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and downstream enterprises can sell out - of - the - money put options [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased. Supply pressure was significant, and demand was in the off - season. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The 2508 contract's closing price increased slightly. The supply - demand pattern was weak. It is recommended to wait and see for inventory reduction or secondary lead production cuts [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract oscillated higher. The overall steel supply - demand was balanced, but there were structural differences. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract oscillated lower. Supply and demand were moderately strong. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2601 contract oscillated higher. Supply and demand were relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. It is recommended to wait and see and close short positions [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybeans were weak. Supply was abundant, and demand was affected by tariffs. Domestic soybeans had different trends from international ones, and it is necessary to pay attention to weather and tariff policies [5]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract was weak. Wheat substitution and increased supply from imports and new crops pressured the price. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract was weak. Brazil's production increased, and domestic prices were under pressure. It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton growth was behind schedule, and domestic prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips and trade within the 13600 - 14000 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Log**: The 09 contract declined. Spot prices were stable, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Supply was strong, and demand was weak in the short - term. It may oscillate in the short - term but is expected to be bullish in the medium - term [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand may increase seasonally. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract was weak. Supply was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price rebounded slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was improving. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract rose slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PTA**: PX supply was increasing, and PTA supply was decreasing in the short - term but increasing in the long - term. It is recommended to short processing margins or far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The price rose. Raw material prices rebounded, and inventories decreased. It is recommended to hold long positions [9]. - **Glass**: The 09 contract declined. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The price has limited downside, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The price oscillated slightly. Supply was increasing, and demand was differentiated. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply was increasing, and demand was stable. It is recommended to short far - month contracts [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price was weak. OPEC+ will increase production, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sanctions on Russia are clear [9]. - **Styrene**: The price declined slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. It may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着前期宏观驱动力量减弱，胶市重新回归由偏弱供需结构主 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，7 月底部分煤矿在完成生产目标后暂时停产，煤炭产量短期下滑，但进入 8 月 以后预计迅速恢复。另外，此前国家能源局综合司的煤矿超产整治暂未引起产地安监明显收紧， 主产区煤矿旺季肩负保供职责，产量平稳运行。需求端，国家气候中心发布 8 月气候趋势预测， 显示 8 月全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，今夏第三产业和居民生活用电将有一定支撑。 库存方面，截至 7 月 31 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2484.7 万吨，周环比大幅 ...