Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025-12-18 China Fiscal Policy Outlook: Moderate Expandsion? 中国财政政策展望：如何理解适度扩张 | 甘 青 | Gan | Qing | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03124127 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0023461 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 程小庆 | | | Cheng Xiaoqing 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3083989 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0018635 | | 张菁 | Zhang Jing | | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3022617 | 投资咨询号 Consulting ...

财政赤字是支出总量超过收入总量的部分，从明年财政收支形势看，明年保民生、稳就业、扩内需等领 域需要强化保障，培育新质生产力、加强生态环境保护等重点支出持续增长，政府债务还本付息支出压 力犹在。同时，财政收入正处于温和回升阶段，但仍受到需求不足、价格水平有待提升等因素掣肘。总 体看，明年财政收支紧平衡态势延续，刚性支出只增不减，财政赤字规模需适度增加以满足国家重大战 略任务实施、兜牢基层"三保"底线等重点任务的资金需求。 财政政策作为宏观调控的主要手段，通过预算、政府债券、税收等工具组合，发挥扩大总需求和定向调 结构的双重优势，实现经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长。在中央经济工作会议提出"保持必要的财政 赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"的总体要求后，市场对明年财政赤字率的设定高度关注。 财政赤字是衡量全年财政政策力度和财政风险水平的重要指标，直接关系到年内政府支出规模。目前， 市场机构与业内人士对财政赤字率的预期较为一致，预计明年赤字率不低于今年水平，即不低于4%。 该赤字率水平既能延续财政扩张态势，又避免了债务风险过快累积。 财政赤字率是社会各界观察宏观政策力度的风向标，从稳定市场预期角度看，"十五五"开局之年的财 ...

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.087, UK 4.480, France 3.484, Germany 2.749, Italy 3.468, Spain 3.226, Switzerland 0.156, Greece 3.357, Japan 1.865, Brazil 6.150, China 1.828, Australia 4.554, New Zealand 4.316 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.531, UK 3.746, Germany 2.061, Japan 1.015, Italy 2.202, China (1Y yield) 1.401, Australia 3.825 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.356, South Africa zar 17.092, Korean won 1467.250, Thai baht 31.993, Malaysian ringgit 4.132. The latest values of on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12 - month NDF are 7.072, 7.072, 7.076, and 6.934 respectively [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6812.630, Dow Jones Industrial Index 47289.330, Nasdaq 23275.920, Mexican stock index 63551.130, UK stock index 9702.530, France CAC 8097.000, Germany DAX 23589.440, Spanish stock index 16389.000, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 49303.280, Hang Seng Index 26033.260, Shanghai Composite Index 3914.006, Taiwan stock index 27342.530, South Korean stock index 3920.370, Indian stock index 8548.788, Thai stock index 1276.570, Malaysian stock index 1624.570, Australian stock index 8866.382, emerging - economy stock index 1368.270 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: Eurozone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.865, Eurozone high - yield credit - bond index 408.600 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are 3914.01, 4576.49, 2993.68, 3092.50, and 7101.83 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.65%, 1.10%, 0.81%, 1.31%, and 1.00% [4] Valuation - The PE(TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and Germany DAX are 14.05, 11.90, 32.32, 27.08, and 18.29 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.11, 0.07, 0.29, - 0.14, and - 0.19 [4] Risk Premium - The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate values of S&P 500 and Germany DAX are - 0.39 and 2.72 respectively, with环比 changes of - 0.05 and 0.00 [4] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, the SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are - 206.88, - 98.60, (not available), - 41.57, and 144.99 respectively. The 5 - day average values are - 226.26, - 183.11, (not available), - 26.40, and 23.23 respectively [4] Group 3: Other Trading Data Stock Market - The latest trading volume and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, SME board, and ChiNext are: total trading volume 18739.38 (with a环比 change of 2881.42), CSI 300 4638.62 (1220.30), SSE 50 1128.13 (277.81), SME board 3556.73 (458.47), ChiNext 5183.01 (615.80) [5] - The basis and basis - to - spot ratios of IF, IH, and IC are: basis - 21.09, - 7.28, - 70.23; basis - to - spot ratios - 0.46%, - 0.24%, - 0.99% [5] Treasury Bond Futures - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 are: closing prices 108.25, 105.80, 108.04, 105.84; percentage changes 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09%, 0.09% [5] Fund Rates - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are 1.3713%, 1.4931%, 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of - 15.00BP, - 3.00BP, 0.00BP [5]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，早盘小幅冲高后回落，午后横向窄幅波动， 截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.05%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.03%， 5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.03%，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 3013 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 3750 亿元 逆回购到期，当日合计净回笼 737 亿元。 | | | | | 2 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the tax exemption policy for small-scale taxpayers with monthly sales below 100,000 yuan, which is effective until December 31, 2027 [12] - It highlights that individuals purchasing newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds can benefit from the VAT exemption policy as per the announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration [12] - The relevant announcement (Announcement No. 19 of 2023) specifies that interest income from these bonds will be eligible for the small-scale taxpayer exemption [11][12]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3972.03 points, down 0.46%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13202.00 points, down 0.11% [1] - Trading activity slightly decreased, with a total turnover of 1.93 trillion yuan across both markets [1] - The market showed a relatively balanced distribution of gains and losses, with military and coal sectors leading in gains, while dividend assets saw noticeable pullbacks [1] - The current domestic policy is in a window period, and increasing overseas disturbances are noted, suggesting a lack of major adjustment risks but a weakening upward momentum and accelerated structural rotation [1] Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain maintained high prosperity, with active performance across separators, cathode materials, and electrolytes [3] - Lithium carbonate futures hit a new high of 95,200 yuan/ton, the highest since July 2024, with predictions of demand exceeding 30-40% by 2026, potentially pushing prices above 150,000-200,000 yuan/ton [3] - Global lithium carbonate supply capacity is expected to exceed 1.7 million tons by 2025, with demand around 1.55 million tons, indicating a supply surplus that previously suppressed prices [3] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a volume and price increase driven by high demand, with production expected to reach a historical high of 209 GWh in November [4] - The lithium battery index remains at a historical low valuation of 37.87%, indicating potential for recovery [4] Coal Industry - The coal ETF rose by 1.73%, supported by supply-side constraints and increasing demand due to the onset of heating season in northern regions [6] - Central safety inspections in major production areas are expected to limit coal production, with forecasts indicating that Q4 coal supply may not maintain last year's high levels [6] - Electricity consumption is projected to grow, with a forecasted increase of over 6% in Q4, contributing to a persistent supply-demand gap and potential for rising coal prices [6] - The coal sector's dividend yield stands at 4.68%, enhancing its investment appeal [6] Steel Industry - The steel industry is benefiting from policy support and supply-side contraction expectations, with a focus on optimizing product varieties and accelerating high-end product development [7] - Steel prices have risen rapidly since Q3, with improved profitability reflected in a steel mill profit margin increase from 59% in June to 64% in August [7] - The steel sector is projected to achieve a revenue of 480.12 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a profit total of 13.09 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year improvement [9] Bond Market - The bond market is currently in a "low volatility, narrow range" phase, with the ten-year government bond yield closing at 1.8015% [5] - The People's Bank of China has restarted government bond trading, enhancing market sentiment and confirming the yield ceiling [5] - The investment value of government bonds remains prominent amid increasing equity market volatility [5][8]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a narrowing spread between local government bonds with maturities over 7 years and national government bonds, indicating a shift in the bond market dynamics and a potential increase in local bond issuance in the coming week [2] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - The spread between local government bonds with maturities over 7 years and national government bonds has decreased, suggesting a change in investor sentiment and market conditions [2] - There is an expectation of a significant acceleration in local bond issuance in the upcoming week, which may impact liquidity and investment strategies [2] Group 2: Local Government Bonds - The report provides a weekly tracking of local government bonds, emphasizing the trends and changes in issuance and yields [2] - The narrowing of the yield spread may indicate improved credit conditions for local governments, potentially leading to increased investment in local bonds [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report presents the performance of global asset markets on November 12, 2025, including data on bonds, currencies, stock indices, and futures transactions [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Bond Yields**: 10 - year bond yields of major economies such as the US (4.117%), UK (4.387%), and Japan (1.685%) are reported, along with 2 - year bond yields like the US (3.592%) and UK (3.720%) [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are given, e.g., the US dollar to Brazilian real is 5.273, and it also shows on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates [2]. - **Stock Indices**: It lists the latest values of major global stock indices, such as the S&P 500 (6846.610), Dow Jones Industrial Index (47927.960), and Shanghai Composite Index (4002.758) [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: The latest values of various credit bond indices are provided, including US investment - grade (3523.740) and high - yield (2880.940) credit bond indices [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented, with CSI 300 down 0.91% and ChiNext down 1.40% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比 changes are given for indices like CSI 300 (14.27, - 0.09) and S&P 500 (28.46, 0.05) [3]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium and its环比 changes are shown for S&P 500 (- 0.60, 0.00) and German DAX (2.36, - 0.02) [3]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest and 5 - day average fund flows for A - shares, main board, SME board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are reported, with A - shares' latest fund flow at - 1048.10 [3]. - **Transaction Amount**: The latest transaction amounts and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and related indices are given, e.g., the latest transaction amount of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 19935.86, with a环比 change of - 1808.68 [4]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis and basis percentage for IF, IH, and IC are provided, with IF's basis at - 25.37 and a basis percentage of - 0.55% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T2303 (108.48, - 0.01%), TF2303 (105.94, - 0.00%), T2306 (108.24, - 0.02%), and TF2306 (105.89, - 0.02%) are reported [4]. Money Market - The latest domestic money market rates (R001: 1.5361%, R007: 1.5145%, SHIBOR - 3M: 1.5800%) and their daily changes (4.00 BP, 1.00 BP, 0.00 BP) are given [4].

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing financial crisis in the U.S., with record national debt and increasing fiscal deficits, leading to a situation where each American carries approximately $110,000 in debt [1][3] - It discusses the disparity between the financial struggles of the nation and the wealth accumulation of major financial institutions and wealthy families, indicating a tight bond between politics and capital [3][5] - The article critiques the political landscape, where tax reforms aimed at the wealthy are consistently blocked, resulting in a growing budget deficit and wealth inequality [5][7] Financial Situation - The U.S. Treasury reported that interest payments for 2024 will exceed $870 billion, marking a historical high and surpassing military spending [3] - The wealth distribution is stark, with the top 10% of households holding nearly 70% of the wealth, while the bottom half collectively holds less than 3% [7] Political Dynamics - The 2024 presidential election campaign is projected to exceed $16 billion, primarily funded by large corporations and wealthy individuals, influencing political decisions [3][5] - Media narratives often support the wealthy, promoting the idea that protecting the rich is synonymous with protecting jobs, which misleads the public [5][7] Social Implications - The article notes a significant increase in homelessness, with over 75,000 homeless individuals in Los Angeles alone, highlighting the failure to address basic social needs [7] - It draws a parallel to historical figures like Franklin D. Roosevelt, suggesting that current politicians lack the courage to implement necessary reforms to address wealth inequality and social welfare [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - Italy's gold reserves, which have been steadfastly protected despite high national debt, are now valued at approximately $300 billion, representing about 13% of the country's GDP, as gold prices reach historic highs [2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Italy's affinity for gold dates back thousands of years, with significant historical milestones including the establishment of the aureus coin during Julius Caesar's reign and the influence of the fiorino coin in medieval Europe [5]. - The modern formation of Italy's gold policy is closely linked to its wartime experiences, particularly the loss of 120 tons of gold to Nazi forces during World War II, which left Italy with only about 20 tons by the end of the war [5][6]. - By 1960, Italy's gold holdings had risen to 1,400 tons, including three-quarters of the gold that was recovered post-war [6]. Group 2: Current Gold Holdings - Italy currently holds the third-largest gold reserves globally, with 2,452 tons, accounting for 75% of its official reserves [7]. - The total global gold reserves amount to 36,360 tons, with Italy's holdings representing a significant portion of this total [7]. - As of the end of last year, gold constituted nearly 75% of Italy's official reserves, surpassing the Eurozone average of 66.5% [12]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Italy's national debt has exceeded €3 trillion (approximately $3.49 trillion), with projections indicating that the debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 137.4% next year [12]. - Despite ongoing calls to sell gold to reduce national debt, the Italian central bank has consistently refused to consider this option, viewing gold as a crucial asset during times of crisis [12][13]. - Experts argue that even selling half of Italy's gold reserves would not significantly alleviate the debt problem, emphasizing the importance of maintaining these reserves as a financial safeguard [13].