热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场继续放量上涨，Wind全A上涨1.59%，成交额2.83万亿元，中证1000指数上涨1.43%，中 证500指数上涨2.13%，沪深300指数上涨1.55%，上证50指数上涨1.9%。受到委内瑞拉地缘影响，有色 金属领涨，非银金融涨幅居前。资金情绪继续高涨，据统计，宽基型ETF12月净申购1100亿元，其中近 1020亿元为A500ETF。A500指数长期与沪深300走势高度相关，相关系数超过0.98，细微差别在于A500 指数成长标的稍多，例如电力设备、电子等板块。在A500ETF获得大幅申购的同时，我们关注到Top5 会员单位IF净空头近期显著上涨，二者可能存在对冲关联。因此，相关资金可能并不会因为跨年的结束 而大幅净流出。短期来看，预计股指短期仍在10月以来构建的震荡中枢内震荡。以中证1000为例，其三 季度营业收入累计同比增速2.6%左右，对其当前估值构成明显支撑，不易发生流动性风险。另一方 面，春季躁动行情需要一定的条件，对小盘指数而言 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.41%，报9.98港元，成交额3264.5万港 元。 消息面上，据第一财经报道，雪佛龙预订的一小批船只正准备驶向委内瑞拉。在委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被 美国军队俘虏之后，该公司成为了该国石油的唯一出口商。数据显示，这家美国石油巨头租用的至少11 艘油轮计划于本月抵达委内瑞拉政府控制的何塞港和巴霍格兰德港。该数据为初步统计，与去年12月的 9艘船只数量相比有所增加，也是自10月以来的最高值，当时有12艘油轮在此装载货物。 大摩发布研报称，认为中远海能股价在未来30天内将出现绝对上涨，因为该股近期已经历了回调，使得 其短期估值更具吸引力。大摩指出，在地缘政治动态下，对合法油轮的需求正在上升，估计这一情景发 生的概率约为70%至80%或"极有可能"。 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-07 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-07 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 央行明确 2026 年重点工作 观点分享： 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议 1 月 5 日-6 日召开，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发 展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。 建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排，发挥好两项支持资本市场的货币政 策工具作用。强化金融市场监管执法，持续打击金融市场违法违规活动。强化虚拟货币监 管，持续打击相关违法犯罪活动。稳步发展数字人民币。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★★★★ | 铜：多重预期驱动，铜价走强。从供应端看，全球地缘政治持续动荡，引发对铜矿供应的担 忧。特朗普宣称美国企业将投资数十亿美元修复委石油基础设施，暴露资源控制意图。市场 担心其可能挤压其他国家在核心产区的权益，增加区域铜矿供应断裂的风险，从而提升全球 铜矿供应的干扰率。同时，2026 年中国进口铜精矿长单 TC 为 0 美元/吨 ...

能源化工日报 2026-01-07 橡胶 | | 原油 | | --- | --- | | | 2026/01/07 原油 | | 能源化工组 | 【行情资讯】 | | | INE 主力原油期货收涨 1.40 元/桶，涨幅 0.33%，报 428.20 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 | | 张正华 | 燃料油收涨 18.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.73%，报 2479.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 8.00 元/吨，涨幅 | | 橡胶分析师 | 0.27%，报 2925.00 元/吨。 | | 从业资格号：F270766 | 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 2.10 百万桶至 205.11 百万桶，环比去库 1.02%； | | 交易咨询号：Z0003000 | 汽油商业库存累库 0.58 百万桶至 89.62 百万桶，环比累库 0.65%；柴油商业库存累库 0.42 百 | |  0755-233753333 | 万桶至 92.56 百万桶，环比累库 0.45%；总成品油商业库存累库 1.00 百万桶至 182.18 百万 | |  zhangzh@wkqh.cn | 桶，环比累库 0.55%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘大面积飘红，碳酸锂涨幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20260107 | | | | 20 100 111 201 08 TV 100 Tri | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 4778 | 1.72% | 3.87% | 3.874 | 3.87% | 3.87% | | | 上证50期货 | 3161.8 | 2.03% | 4.52% | 4.524 | 4.52% | 4.52% | | | 中证500期货 | 7786.4 | 2.51% | 5.75% | 5 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-07 沙特连续第三个⽉下调对亚洲的OSP油 价，塑料反弹后基差⾛弱 原油价格交投震荡，市场权衡今年全球供应充足的预期以及美国抓捕 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗之后围绕委内瑞拉原油产量的不确定性影响。作为对 全球过剩的另一例证，1月6日沙特阿拉伯连续第三个月下调其对亚洲的旗 舰级原油的OSP价格，同步下调的还有销往包括美国和欧洲在内的所有其 他地区的所有等级原油的价格。委内瑞拉的局势仍略显动荡，据TankerTr ackers.com数据，自2026年初，16艘油轮无视美国封锁，从委内瑞拉启 航，其中许多船只为规避追踪而停止传输位置。委内未来原油生产和出口 完全恢复正常仍需时间。 板块逻辑： 周二又有更多的化工品出现反弹，3P和MA是主力品种。PVC的反弹仍 是在交易未来可能的用电成本增加，以及美国奥林VCM装置的短停；PP和P E更多的是主流生产商年底集中出货后，供应压力的略略缓解。这三个品 种的期货价格反弹后都出现了现货跟涨不力，基差走弱的格局。PP和PE整 体开工并未出现大幅下滑。甲醇的期货上涨有现货的同步跟随，一些内地 ...

受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格2025年底均创 历史新高。2025年，国际金价累计涨幅超过70%。金价狂飙的背后，以美元为中心的国际货币体系正在 动摇，美元信用正在削弱，此外还有AI产业推进带来的需求。本报邀请中国现代国际关系研究院研究 员陈凤英和中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲进行解读。 让人想起"尼克松冲击" 2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的4500美元/盎 司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录 【观察】 在多重因素推动下，国际金价在2025年屡创新高，尤其年底更是频频刷新纪录，全年累计涨幅约七成， 创下自1979年以来最强的年度表现。 国际黄金的首轮牛市始于美国前总统尼克松放弃金本位制并瓦解布雷顿森林货币体系之时。随着尼克松 政府着手扩大美国联邦赤字，通胀率飙升，再叠加两次石油价格冲击的影响，黄金价格从1971年8月的 每盎司35美元一路冲高，于1980年1月触及每盎司835美元的峰值。 "乱世黄金"再次得到验证 "乱世"不一定是战争，也可以是无序。世界正处于百年未有之大变局，也是大乱局，变 ...

中新网1月7日电（魏晨曦）一段公开视频显示，当地时间5日，欧盟委员会发言人阿妮塔·希佩尔在布鲁 塞尔记者会上，就美国再度威胁索要格陵兰岛以及美国突袭委内瑞拉分别作出回应。 一方面，在回答记者关于格陵兰岛主权问题时，希佩尔表示，欧盟将继续维护国家主权、领土完整、边 界不可侵犯性和《联合国宪章》原则，"这些都是普遍适用的国际准则，我们将持续坚定捍卫"。 短短几分钟内，希佩尔几乎代表欧盟，对两起同样挑战主权与领土完整的国际事件，给出了截然不同的 反应，"双标"立场展露无遗。 欧盟这种看似矛盾的态度，其根源首先深植于地缘政治与利益亲疏的差异。 格陵兰岛矿藏丰富，位置具有战略意义。作为丹麦的自治领土，格陵兰岛也是北约的一部分。其主权受 到挑战，直接触及了欧洲一体化赖以存在的根本基石。 资料图： 格陵兰岛伊卢利萨特附近的迪斯科湾，日落时，阳光反射在冰山上。 相比之下，委内瑞拉远在南美，属于传统意义上的所谓美国"后院"，在政治上，马杜罗政府也被欧盟一 些国家抵制。近年来，美国、欧盟等域外力量纷纷加大对马杜罗政府的制裁力度，干涉委内政。这种空 间与政治上的双重疏离，使得国际法原则的刚性，在适用时悄然发生了软化。 另一方面，在 ...

2026年刚开年，全球资本市场就被特朗普狠狠搅了一锅粥。1月3日，美军直接出手抓捕委内瑞拉总统马 杜罗，消息一出，全球金融市场立刻风声鹤唳。 特朗普动手了，资本吓坏了 1月3日清晨，委内瑞拉首都加拉加斯局势骤变，美军突袭逮捕总统马杜罗的消息迅速登上全球头条。这 一突发事件不仅打破了拉美局势的脆弱平衡，也引爆了全球市场的警觉神经。 尽管美国白宫随后声称此次行动"仅针对毒品走私网络"，但特朗普在社交平台上却毫不掩饰其真实意 图,他公开表示，美国将"接管委内瑞拉关键能源资产"，为美国人民赢回"应得的石油资源"。 这番话一出口，市场就明白了：这是赤裸裸的资源争夺，特朗普此举，无疑是将地缘政治当成了经济救 急的工具。 从市场反应看，能源股和军工股短线受益明显，在美国采取军事行动的背景下，军工股同样走高。洛克 希德·马丁和通用动力股价上涨约3%，然而这种短期红利并不能掩盖整体市场的紧张情绪。 美股在消息发布后出现震荡，但随后在能源和金融股带动下收高，道琼斯指数上涨1.23%创下历史新 高。避险情绪同时升温，金价单日上涨近3%，白银涨幅显著，这可不是正常行情。 美股期货盘中剧烈震荡，黄金白银价格飙升，美元指数则一路下滑。眼 ...