Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of gold prices and employment data in the U.S., highlighting the mixed signals from strong job growth and a significant downward revision in future employment projections, which may influence market expectations regarding interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Economic Data Summary - In January, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the market consensus of 65,000, marking the largest monthly increase in over a year [2][7]. - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.3% in January, compared to expectations and the previous value of 4.4% [2][7]. - The U.S. Labor Department revised the total employment growth forecast for 2025 from an initial estimate of 584,000 down to 181,000, indicating an average monthly job addition of approximately 15,000, which would make 2025 the worst year for employment performance since 2003, excluding economic crises [2][7]. Market Reaction - Following the release of the employment data, the U.S. dollar showed some volatility but remained generally stable, which had a limited impact on gold prices [2][7]. - The market is now focusing on the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may provide further guidance on interest rate expectations [2][7]. Geopolitical Context - Tensions in the Gulf region continue, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran failing to reach effective consensus, maintaining the potential for conflict [3][8]. - The sell-off in precious metals is nearing its end, but there remains upward pressure in the market, complicating predictions due to the volatility of geopolitical situations [3][8].

今日周三(2月11日)亚盘时段，受周三美国非农就业报告及本周后续多项通胀数据即将公布的影响，贵 金属市场步入震荡整理期。当前，地缘政治局势虽持续紧张却未进一步激化，避险需求为贵金属筑牢支 撑，市场抛压有限。截至最新，4月黄金期货报价下滑19.6美元，价格定格在5060.2美元/盎司，市场正 静待关键数据指引。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 特朗普最近又给美联储"画饼"了——他提名的前理事凯文·沃什，在他嘴里简直是"经济加速器成精"： 只要沃什上台，美国经济增速能飙到15%!这数字有多离谱呢?市场预计今年美国GDP增速才2.4%，过去 五十年平均也就2.8%，特朗普这目标怕不是把"经济增速"和"超市促销折扣"搞混了?他还补刀说当年选 鲍威尔是"重大错误"，夸沃什"能力出众到发光"，只是没说清这15%是同比、环比还是"特朗普数学"里 的"我觉得能行"增速。 另一边，爱沙尼亚情报局给俄罗斯的"和平谈判"盖了个戳：纯纯剧本杀，目标是拖时间。俄方压根不想 真停火，核心KPI是恢复和美国全面外交关系——方便俄商业大佬直飞美国拿签证，顺便给间谍叔叔们 开"活动绿色通道"。哪怕现在还在乌克兰"打副本"，人家 ...

Group 1: Market Volatility - The gold market has experienced extreme volatility, with prices reaching a historical high of $5598.75 per ounce at the end of January 2026, followed by a significant drop of over 12% on January 30, hitting a low of $4682 per ounce [1][3] - The immediate trigger for the price drop was the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which reversed previous market expectations for monetary easing, leading to a rapid increase in the US dollar index and pressure on gold prices [3] - The market had previously seen a substantial increase in gold prices, with a rise of over 70% in 2025 and an additional 15% at the start of 2026, creating a situation where profit-taking was likely when market conditions changed [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical developments, such as the agreement for talks between the US and Iran and productive discussions between Russia and Ukraine, have reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, prompting some capital to exit the gold market [3] - Despite these talks, analysts note that fundamental disagreements remain, suggesting that geopolitical tensions are likely to persist [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - Following the dramatic price drop, gold prices rebounded by 4.1% on February 3, reaching $4850 per ounce, driven by a recovery in market sentiment and the realization that the previous drop was largely a correction of market leverage and emotions [5] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange responded to the volatility by adjusting margin levels and price limits for gold contracts, indicating a proactive approach to manage market fluctuations [5] Group 4: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic gold prices also experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting a drop of 9.67% on February 2, marking the largest single-day decline in recent times [5] - On February 6, domestic gold prices saw a collective decline across various brands, with notable drops reported by major retailers [6] Group 5: ETF and Investment Trends - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF, the largest gold ETF globally, saw a record outflow of 82 tons on January 30, reflecting the market's reaction to the price drop [3][8] - As of January 29, 2026, the SPDR Gold Shares had an asset management scale of approximately $1740.68 billion, with a gold holding of about 1110 tons, indicating significant investor interest prior to the volatility [8] Group 6: Central Bank Activities - Central banks continue to support gold prices, with global net purchases exceeding 1200 tons in 2025, making gold the largest reserve asset for central banks, surpassing US Treasuries [9] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, surpassing 2400 tons as of January 2026, with 95% of central banks planning to continue increasing their gold holdings in the next 12 months [9] Group 7: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - Changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations have directly impacted gold prices, with officials indicating that rate cuts in the first half of the year are unlikely, pushing back the first expected cut from June to September [11] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may still cut rates 2-3 times in 2026, which will continue to influence gold price trends [11] Group 8: Liquidity Issues - The recent price drop has highlighted liquidity issues in the precious metals market, with significant amounts of inventory locked away due to strategic and manufacturing demands, reducing the available supply for trading [12] - Speculative behavior in the silver market has exacerbated tensions, with retail investors shifting from gold to silver, further constraining the physical supply [12]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a pullback around $5035, ending a two-day upward trend as market risk sentiment improved, leading to a withdrawal of funds from safe-haven assets [1][7] - Geopolitical tensions eased, particularly with Iran indicating progress in nuclear discussions with the U.S., reducing concerns about further escalation and allowing the market to digest some of the premium accumulated from safe-haven demand [1][7] - Despite the short-term pressure, the medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by a central bank in Asia that increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, reaching 74.19 million ounces, reflecting a long-term strategy to hedge against global economic uncertainties [1][7] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent pullback in gold prices appears to be a phase of correction within a broader upward trend, with prices still operating within a medium-term ascending channel and above key moving averages [2][8] - Key support levels are identified at $4990, $4967, and $4940, while resistance levels are at $5067, $5085, and a target of $5130 for medium-term bullish sentiment [2][8] - The current market adjustment is viewed as a digestion of previous gains rather than a fundamental reversal, with a focus on maintaining stability above $5000 to preserve the upward trend [2][8] Group 3: Gold Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include aggressive short positions around $5068 and $5125, with targets of $50 to $100, and long positions around $4996 and $4940, also targeting $50 to $100 [3][9] - The critical threshold for gold is identified at $4900 per ounce, indicating a significant level for traders to monitor [3][9] Group 4: WTI Crude Oil Market Overview - WTI crude oil prices are trading around $64.3 per barrel, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran contributing to a temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, although potential risks remain [4][9] - Venezuelan oil exports surged to 800,000 barrels per day in January, up from 498,000 barrels per day in December, which may exert upward pressure on global supply [4][9] Group 5: Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil - Recent price declines in crude oil are seen as a consolidation phase, with the potential for recovery if prices settle above $63.50, targeting a key resistance level of $66.00 [10][11] - The overall outlook remains bullish, with prices trading above the 50-day exponential moving average, indicating strong short-term support [10][11] Group 6: WTI Crude Oil Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies for crude oil include aggressive short positions around $65.5 and $66.1, targeting approximately $63.0, and long positions around $63.5 and $62.8, targeting $66.0 [5][12]

2026 年 2 月 9 日 本周热点前瞻 2026-02-09 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 2 月 10 日-17 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 1 月金融统计数据报告、1 月社会融资规模增量统计数据报告、 1 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 2 月 10 日 21:30，美国商务部将公布 1 月零售销售。 2 月 11 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布中国 1 月 CPI 和 PPI， 2 月 11 日 21:30，美国劳工部统计局将公布 1 月非农就业报告。 2 月 12 日 21:30，美国劳工部将公布截至 2 月 7 日当周初请失业金人数。 2 月 13 日 09:30， ...

博弈焦点：三大关键变量决定黄金下一步走向当前，黄金市场正站在一个十字路口，其未来走势将紧密围绕三大核心变量展开激烈博弈。首先，也是迫在眉 睫的，是即将于2月11日发布的美国1月非农就业报告。 这份因政府停摆而推迟的报告，已成为全球市场的焦点。在此之前公布的ADP民间就业数据不及预 期，仅为增加2.2万个岗位，远低于预估，这为劳动力市场蒙上了一层阴影。 市场正在艰难权衡：当前由科技股领跌的股市动荡，究竟是典型的避险情绪（通常利好美元），还是美国经济核心板块恶化的信号？非农数据将成为解答这 一疑惑、并重塑美联储利率路径预期的关键。美联储政策预期的任何变化——无论是降息预期提前还是推迟，都将通过美元和实际利率渠道，直接而猛烈地 冲击金价。其次，地缘政治局势呈现"冰火两重天"的复杂态势。 然而，更具权威性的美国1月非农就业报告因政府停摆而推迟至2月11日发布，这一关键数据的缺席使市场处于观望状态，等待更明确的经济政策路径指引。 其他贵金属表现分化：现货白银上涨1.3%，至每盎司86.08美元，尽管较上周创下的历史高点大幅回撤，但年初至今涨幅仍超过20%，显示其波动性显著高 于黄金。铂金与钯金也均录得小幅上涨。 美元的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission announced an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices due to fluctuations in international oil prices, marking the third adjustment in 2026 and the second increase this year [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of February 3, 2026, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will rise by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively [1] - This adjustment translates to an increase of 0.16 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline and 0.17 yuan per liter for 0 diesel [1] - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 8 yuan more [1] Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period from January 20 to February 2, international oil prices initially rose and then fell, with an average level higher than the previous adjustment period [1] - Factors influencing this trend included geopolitical tensions, particularly increased U.S. sanctions on Iran, and adverse weather conditions affecting U.S. oil production and exports [1] - Brent crude oil futures prices briefly exceeded $70 per barrel due to these factors [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Following the easing of geopolitical tensions with the initiation of U.S.-Iran negotiations, international oil prices have significantly decreased, currently around $66 per barrel [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates continued volatility in international oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [2] - The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2026 global economic growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, while the International Energy Agency has increased its global oil demand growth forecast by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, indicating improved economic prospects and oil demand [2]

今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第10个工作日，当前预计上调汽油价格205元/吨，柴油价格195元/吨，折合每升油价上调0.16-0.19元，相比昨日的油价预计涨 幅减少20元/吨，还是远超上调红线，油价要涨。 注意，昨日国际油价大跌 注意，受地缘政治局势缓和以及美元指数大涨影响，昨日国际油价大幅回落。本轮油价预计涨幅也稍稍缩小，虽然不影响晚间的油价大涨，但新一轮油价调 整说不定能出现下跌，还是值得期待一下的。 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现，美原油：下跌5.17%，收于62.33美元/桶。布伦特原油下跌4.9%，收于66.31美元/桶。今日国际油价继续回落中，截至发稿， 美原油暂报61.90美元/桶，跌幅0.69%。 目前据外媒消息，伊朗总统已下令开启与美国的核问题专项谈判，美国特使与伊朗外长将于6日在土耳其会晤。这极大地降低了美伊发生军事冲突的风险， 地缘政治风险溢价继续消退。 本轮油价调整时间：2月3日24时 | 地区 | 92号汽油 | 95号汽油 | | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 6.77 | 7.21 | | 上海 | 6.74 | 7.17 | | 江苏 | 6.75 | 7.18 ...

2月3日24时，国内成品油零售价格迎来"二连涨"，本轮是今年第三次调价，也是第二次上调。 近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对 比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别上 涨205元和195元。 折合成升价，每升92号汽油、95号汽油和0号柴油的升幅分别在0.16元、0.17元、0.17元。本次调价过 后，2026年成品油调价将呈现"两涨零跌一搁浅"的格局，今年国内汽、柴油价格每吨累计上涨290元和 280元。 本次上调落实后，消费者用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯分析师曹莹莹指出，油箱容量在50升的小型私家 车加满一箱油将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调 价窗口2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。物流行业，以月跑1万公里，百公里油耗在38升 的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 计价周期内国内成品油价格上涨 本轮计价周期内，国内汽油柴油价格均有所上涨，但受需求差异影响，汽油价格涨幅大于柴油。 1月份成品油市 ...

2月3日24时，国内成品油零售价格迎来"二连涨"，本轮是今年第三次调价，也是第二次上调。 近期国际市场油价波动上升，根据2月3日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日平均价格对 比情况，按照现行成品油价格机制，自2月3日24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别上 涨205元和195元。 折合成升价，每升92号汽油、95号汽油和0号柴油的升幅分别在0.16元、0.17元、0.17元。本次调价过 后，2026年成品油调价将呈现"两涨零跌一搁浅"的格局，今年国内汽、柴油价格每吨累计上涨290元和 280元。 本次上调落实后，消费者用油成本有所上涨。卓创资讯分析师曹莹莹指出，油箱容量在50升的小型私家 车加满一箱油将比之前多花8元左右。以月跑两千公里，百公里油耗在8升的小型私家车为例，到下次调 价窗口2月24日24点之前，消费者用油成本将增加18元。物流行业，以月跑1万公里，百公里油耗在38升 的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开启前，单辆车的燃油成本将增加452元左右。 计价周期内国内成品油价格上涨 本轮计价周期内，国内汽油柴油价格均有所上涨，但受需求差异影响，汽油价格涨幅大于柴油。 1月份成品油市 ...