Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown volatility, with a recent spike above 159 followed by a rapid decline, indicating increased intervention risk from the Japanese government [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The USD/JPY rate reached approximately 159.22 before dropping to 157.34, reflecting market behavior similar to past "currency tests" conducted by the Japanese Ministry of Finance [2]. - The last reported "currency test" occurred in mid-July 2024, which was followed by actual intervention to buy yen [2]. - Analysts suggest that the recent fluctuations do not indicate a genuine intervention, as true intervention would have a more significant impact [4]. Group 2: Intervention Risks - As the USD/JPY approaches the 160 mark, traders are on high alert for potential intervention, with officials seemingly reluctant to allow the rate to fall below this threshold [5]. - If volatility in the yen remains high, the risk of intervention will increase, potentially prompting Japanese authorities to act to maintain credibility [5]. - Short-term intervention may alleviate some pressure on the currency but is unlikely to change the overall trend [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The yen has been under pressure due to concerns over Japan's fiscal expansion policies and a lack of supportive fundamentals [7]. - Analysts predict that the yen's structural weakness will persist, with expectations that the USD/JPY rate could fall to 160 or lower by the end of 2026 due to ongoing factors such as significant interest rate differentials and capital outflows [7]. - The trajectory of the yen will largely depend on the interest rate outlook between Japan and major economies like the U.S., as well as the balance of domestic inflation and growth [8].

Core Insights - Major Wall Street financial institutions are rapidly entering the prediction market space, hiring specialized traders to capture arbitrage opportunities between event contracts related to sports and political elections. This emerging market is experiencing a surge in trading volume, particularly during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, evolving into a sports contract-focused betting platform [1] Group 1: Market Entry and Growth - Several prominent trading firms, including DRW, Susquehanna, and Tyr Capital, are forming dedicated prediction market trading teams, with DRW recently advertising for traders with base salaries up to $200,000 to monitor and trade active markets on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi [1][2] - The trading volume in prediction markets has skyrocketed from under $100 million per month at the beginning of 2024 to over $8 billion by December 2025, attracting the attention of traditional financial institutions [1] Group 2: Recruitment and Strategy - Susquehanna is actively recruiting traders who can identify mispriced fair values and inefficiencies in prediction markets, while Tyr Capital seeks traders experienced in complex strategies [2] - Analysts note that strict risk controls will likely lead trading firms to avoid direct bets on specific events, instead focusing on arbitrage opportunities between different markets, similar to high-frequency trading strategies [3] Group 3: Market Makers and Liquidity - Major market makers are showing increased enthusiasm, with Susquehanna being the first market maker for Kalshi and establishing partnerships with retail trading platforms like Robinhood to provide liquidity [4] - Other firms, including Jump Trading and Flow Traders, have recently ramped up their trading activities in prediction markets, indicating a growing interest in this sector [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On January 8, equity index futures diverged, CGB futures rose, and most commodities declined, with PS and EC leading the losses [2][11] - The supply - demand balance for polysilicon remains relatively loose, and the price trend is in a tug - of - war between weak fundamentals and industry price - supporting actions [18][19] - Platinum prices were pressured by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate volatility. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [24][26] - Palladium supply is disrupted by the Russian geopolitical issue, and although long - term supply - demand eases, short - term prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 8, in equity index futures, IM rose 0.7% while IF dropped 0.7%; in CGB, TL rose 0.37% and T rose 0.15% [11] - Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were Coking Coal (up 4.8% with open interest down 1.5% month - on - month), Glass (up 2.6% with open interest up 6.4% month - on - month), and Coke (up 2.6% with open interest down 1.3% month - on - month) [12][13] - The top three losers were Polysilicon (down 9.0% with open interest dropping 14.4% month - on - month), SCFIS（Europe）(down 9.0% with open interest down 8.3% month - on - month), and Platinum (down 6.7% with open interest decreasing 2.4% month - on - month) [13][14] 1.2 Daily Dropped 1.2.1 Poly - Silicon - On January 8, Poly - Silicon dropped 9.0% to 53610 yuan per ton. Futures fell sharply with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit down in the afternoon [17][19] - The supply - demand balance is loose, but both upstream and downstream have strong price - supporting willingness. Supply may adjust with demand, and demand from the downstream provides limited support [18][19] 1.2.2 Platinum - On January 8, Platinum dropped by 6.7% to 575 yuan per gram [23][26] - Affected by profit - taking and a strengthening dollar, the precious metals sector retreated, and geopolitical risks may exacerbate price volatility. The price spread between domestic and international markets has narrowed [24][26] - The supply side in South Africa faces risks, and the demand side is in a structural expansion phase with multiple growth drivers [25][26] 1.2.3 Palladium - On January 8, Palladium dropped by 3.6% to 460.7 yuan per gram [29][31] - The Russian geopolitical issue disrupts supply, and demand is under structural pressure. Short - term spot shortages keep prices firm, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [30][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - MOFCOM will assess whether Meta's acquisition of Manus complies with relevant Chinese laws and regulations on export control, technology import and export, and overseas investment [37][39] - MFA stated that the US arbitrary seizure of foreign vessels on the high seas seriously violates international law [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - In 2025, China's national futures market recorded a cumulative trading volume of 9.074 billion lots and a cumulative turnover of 766.25 trillion yuan, representing year - on - year growth of 17.4% and 23.74% respectively [40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel export licensing system in 2026 led to a lower opening of steel prices on Friday night, but prices rebounded due to the expected production cuts in energy - consuming industries. The impact of the licensing system on steel exports needs further tracking. Currently, steel mills are reducing production and inventory, and plate inventory is rising year - on - year. Considering the strengthening of basis during the decline of steel prices and the stabilization signs of coking coal in January, steel prices are expected to stabilize. Attention should be paid to the price ranges of 3000 - 3200 yuan and 3200 - 3350 yuan in May. When hot metal production drops to a low level, one can participate in the spread - widening arbitrage of the iron ore - to - steel ratio between the January and May contracts [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, iron ore futures fluctuated and declined. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports rebounded. On the demand side, steel mills continued to cut production, hot metal output decreased, steel mill maintenance increased, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and the profitability of steel mills declined. In terms of inventory, port inventory increased, the port clearance volume rose, and the equity inventory of steel mills decreased. Looking ahead, hot metal production of steel mills may further decline, steel prices will fluctuate at a low level, the market will gradually weaken, and the valuation of iron ore will decline. The strategy is to maintain a bearish view on iron ore futures, short the Iron Ore 2605 contract on rallies, with an operating range of 730 - 780. Arbitrage strategies recommend going long on finished products and short on iron ore, and long the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industries - **Coke**: Yesterday, coke futures rebounded after over - falling. The second round of price cuts in coke was implemented on December 12, and there is still an expectation of further cuts in the short term. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market expanded, the coke price adjustment lagged behind coking coal, coking profits were repaired, and the start - up rate decreased. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal output declined, steel prices fluctuated at a low level, and there was an intention to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coking plants, ports, and steel mills all increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The coke supply - demand situation weakened. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and arbitrage, and expect a short - term rebound or consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coke [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Yesterday, coking coal futures fluctuated and declined. On the supply side, the spot auction prices in Shanxi continued to fall, Mongolian coal prices declined, the flow - auction rate remained high, and the coal spot market became more relaxed. The coal mine output decreased slightly, and the inventory increased again. Near the end of the year, coal mine production may continue to decline; in terms of imported coal, the port inventory continued to increase, and Mongolian coal prices followed the futures down. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, hot metal output declined, coking profits recovered, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. The market's restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, steel mills reduced inventory, while coal mines, coal washing plants, ports, coking enterprises, and ports increased inventory, and the overall inventory increased slightly from the middle level. The strategy is to take profit on short positions and arbitrage, and expect a short - term rebound or consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal [7]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads** - **Thread Steel**: Spot prices in East China and North China remained unchanged, while in South China, it rose by 10 yuan/ton. Futures contracts 05, 10, and 01 all increased, with increases of 14 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East China and North China remained unchanged, while in South China, it rose by 10 yuan/ton. Futures contracts 05 and 10 increased, while contract 01 decreased by 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit** - **Cost**: The price of steel billet remained unchanged at 2940 yuan/ton, the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace thread steel decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 3213 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter thread steel decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 3145 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: The profit of East China thread steel remained unchanged at - 10 yuan/ton, the profit of North China thread steel decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China thread steel remained unchanged at 210 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton, the profit of North China hot - rolled coil decreased by 14 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coil decreased by 4 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory** - **Production**: The daily average hot metal output decreased by 3.0 tons to 229.3 tons, a decrease of 1.3%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 22.7 tons to 806.2 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The output of thread steel decreased by 10.5 tons to 178.8 tons, a decrease of 5.6%, including a 1.2 - ton decrease in electric - arc furnace output to 27.6 tons (a 4.0% decrease) and a 9.4 - ton decrease in converter output. The output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 9.4 tons to 151.2 tons, a decrease of 5.8% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 33.5 tons to 1332.1 tons, a decrease of 2.5%. The inventory of thread steel decreased by 24.3 tons to 479.5 tons, a decrease of 4.8%. The inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 3.3 tons to 397.1 tons, a decrease of 0.8% [1]. - **Transaction and Demand** - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.1 tons to 10.1 tons, an increase of 11.9%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 24.5 tons to 839.7 tons, a decrease of 2.8%. The apparent demand of thread steel decreased by 13.9 tons to 203.1 tons, a decrease of 6.4%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.9 tons to 312.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads** - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt cost of various iron ore powders decreased, with the cost of Carajás fines decreasing by 11.0 yuan/ton to 772.6 yuan/ton (a 1.4% decrease), PB fines decreasing by 4.4 yuan/ton to 824.9 yuan/ton (a 0.5% decrease), Brazilian blended fines decreasing by 4.3 yuan/ton to 830.9 yuan/ton (a 0.5% decrease), and Jinbuba fines decreasing by 4.3 yuan/ton to 824.1 yuan/ton (a 0.5% decrease) [3]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of Carajás fines for the 01 contract decreased by 5.5 yuan/ton to - 4.4 yuan/ton (a 523.0% decrease), while the basis of PB fines, Brazilian blended fines, and Jinbuba fines increased by 1.1 yuan/ton, 1.2 yuan/ton, and 1.2 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Inter - Contract Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 21.5 yuan/ton (a 4.4% decrease), the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to - 45.5 yuan/ton (a 2.2% decrease), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 24.0 yuan/ton (a 9.1% increase) [3]. - **Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 242.9 tons to 2723.4 tons, an increase of 9.8%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 223.9 tons to 3592.5 tons, an increase of 6.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 3.1 tons to 232.3 tons, a decrease of 1.3%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 7.8 tons to 319.2 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 320.9 tons to 6234.0 tons, a decrease of 4.9%. The national monthly crude steel output decreased by 212.7 tons to 6987.0 tons, a decrease of 3.0% [3]. - **Inventory** - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) increased by 82.4 tons to 15431.42 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 150.5 tons to 8834.2 tons, a decrease of 1.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days, an increase of 5.3% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industries - **Prices and Spreads** - **Coke** - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612 yuan/ton, while the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 1581 yuan/ton. The 01 and 05 contracts of coke increased, with increases of 29 yuan/ton and 43 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The 01 basis of coke decreased by 39 yuan/ton to 77 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal** - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1230 yuan/ton, the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 4 yuan/ton to 1139 yuan/ton. The 01 and 05 contracts of coking coal increased, with increases of 20 yuan/ton and 45 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The 01 basis of coking coal decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 174 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand** - **Coke** - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons [7]. - **Demand**: The hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.1 tons to 229.2 tons, a decrease of 1.34% [7]. - **Coking Coal** - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3%, and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons to 438.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.6 tons to 64.0 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.6 tons [7]. - **Inventory** - **Coke**: The total coke inventory increased by 20.8 tons to 903.8 tons, an increase of 2.4%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 10.9 tons to 87.3 tons, an increase of 14.24%, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 10.0 tons to 635.3 tons, an increase of 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.1 tons to 181.2 tons, a decrease of 0.14% [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 1.1 tons to 126.5 tons, a decrease of 0.9%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 28.1 tons to 1037.3 tons, an increase of 2.8%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.6 tons to 794.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5%, and the port inventory increased by 11.0 tons to 307.5 tons, an increase of 3.7% [7].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo indicated that the central bank will assess the pros and cons of interest rate hikes in the December policy meeting, marking the clearest signal for a potential rate increase to 0.75% [1] - Japan's core inflation rate reached 3% in October, the highest since July, with the core inflation rate excluding fresh food and energy rising to 3.1%, supporting the case for a rate hike [3] - Japan's GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the third quarter, contrasting with a growth of 1.6% in the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in economic growth [4] Group 2: Currency and Market Reactions - The recent rise in the yen has led to increased volatility in the currency market, with the USD/JPY exchange rate rising approximately 2.19% as of November, and 9.52% over the past six months [3] - The tightening of Japan's monetary policy is impacting risk assets globally, with Bitcoin experiencing a significant sell-off, dropping 6% to below $85,000, and Ethereum falling nearly 9% [5] - Investors are reassessing yen-based carry trades and arbitrage strategies due to the changing interest rate environment, which is leading to a reduction in liquidity and increased financing costs globally [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index futures market rebounded significantly last week, with different industries contributing to the gains of various indices. The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract. The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week, and new signals were given. The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week, but the new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness [3][4][5][6][7]. - In the bond futures market, the IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long last week, and the interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates [42][43][44]. - In the commodity market, last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had the largest increase. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic. Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures 3.1.1 Market Review - The market rebounded significantly last week. Electronics and non - ferrous metals contributed to the main gains of the SSE 50; electronics and communications contributed to the main gains of the CSI 300; electronics and power equipment contributed to the main gains of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 [3]. - The trading volume of each variety decreased month - on - month, and the basis weakened. IF maintained a shallow discount, while IC and IM maintained a deep discount [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Strategy Recommendation - The basis of each variety weakened. It is expected that the deep discount pattern of IC and IM will continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunities, and the roll - over strategy recommends going long on the near - term contract and short on the far - term contract [4]. 3.1.3 Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - In the inter - period arbitrage strategy, the net value of each strategy generally made profits last week. The annualized basis rate, positive arbitrage, and momentum factor made profits of 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0% (6 - times leverage) respectively. The annualized basis rate factor turned to a positive arbitrage signal [5]. - The cross - variety arbitrage time - series synthetic strategy's net value remained flat last week. The new cross - variety signals recommend a 50% position to go long on IF and short on IC, and a 100% position to go long on IM and short on IC [6]. 3.1.4 Timing Strategy Tracking - The daily timing strategy generally made profits last week. The SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 had losses of 1.0%, 0.4%, and profits of 1.0%, 0.6% respectively. The new signals of the timing model showed a significant increase in the degree of bearishness, and the model was bearish on the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [7]. 3.2 Bond Futures 3.2.1 Basis and Inter - period Spread - The IRR of bond futures decreased this week, the basis strengthened, and the inter - period spread fluctuated weakly. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage space caused by the slight expansion of the inter - period spread [42]. 3.2.2 Unilateral Strategy - The bond futures market fluctuated last week. The daily timing strategy signals were mainly long. The main bullish factors included the basis, intraday volume - price, and high - frequency capital flow, while the main bearish factors included daily technicals and member positions [43]. 3.2.3 Interest Rate Timing Signal - The interest rate timing signals predicted an upward trend in interest rates, with a relatively high proportion of long positions in the production factor and inventory factor [44]. 3.3 Commodity Market 3.3.1 Commodity Factor Performance - Last week, the commodity market generally had more gains than losses. Glass, polysilicon, methanol, and silver had significant increases, while coking coal had a significant decline. The momentum and term - structure factors performed well, and the volume - price trend and some value - based factors had an average increase of more than 0.5%. The warehouse - receipt factors also increased slightly, while other factors decreased slightly. There may be a risk of factor return retracement in the short term, but the long - term performance of commodity factors is still optimistic [57]. 3.3.2 Tracking Strategy Performance - Different tracking strategies have different performance indicators. For example, the CWFT strategy has an annualized return of 9.4%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.62, a Calmar ratio of 1.07, a maximum drawdown of - 8.81%, a recent one - week return of 0.11%, and a year - to - date return of 4.53% [58].

Core Insights - Multi-asset strategy private equity products have gained popularity in 2023, with 1,400 products registered from January to October, second only to stock strategy products [1] - The appeal of multi-asset strategies is attributed to significant global asset price fluctuations expected in 2024-2025, evolving investor demands for risk-return matching, and the search for absolute returns by long-term funds [1][8] Performance Overview - As of November 14, multi-asset strategy products have an average annual return of 20.37%, ranking just below stock strategies, with a slightly higher Sharpe ratio and lower volatility and drawdown [2][3] - The performance metrics for various strategies are as follows: - Stock Strategy: 29.54% average return, 93.14% positive return ratio, 35.96% volatility [3] - Multi-Asset Strategy: 20.37% average return, 91.73% positive return ratio, 25.84% volatility [3] - Composite Fund: 18.98% average return, 96.34% positive return ratio, 39.15% volatility [3] - Futures and Options: 13.79% average return, 82.49% positive return ratio, 48.73% volatility [3] - Bond Strategy: 8.46% average return, 92.10% positive return ratio, 11.76% volatility [3] Sub-strategy Performance - Among sub-strategies, macro strategies outperform in average return, positive return ratio, and Sharpe ratio [4] - Macro Strategy: 25.09% average return, 97% positive return ratio, 25.48% volatility [5] - Composite Strategy: 21.14% average return, 90.93% positive return ratio, 1.63 Sharpe ratio [7] - Arbitrage Strategy: 8.87% average return, 89.95% positive return ratio, lowest volatility and drawdown [7] Market Dynamics - The macro strategy focuses on dynamic allocation across major asset classes based on global macroeconomic analysis [6] - Bridgewater's "All Weather Strategy" exemplifies macro strategies, aiming for stable performance across different economic environments [6] - Local macro strategy firms like Honghu and Banxia are emerging as key players in the market [7] Challenges and Considerations - Successfully implementing multi-asset strategies requires more than just combining different assets; it necessitates creating a synergistic portfolio [8] - The complexity of the Chinese market, with significant differences in Sharpe ratios and economic cycles, demands experienced management and a tailored methodology [8] - A robust IT system covering research, trading, risk control, and operations is essential for distinguishing the capabilities of multi-asset strategy private equity firms [8]

Report Title - Platinum and Palladium Futures Listing Day Trading Strategy, November 27, 2025 [2] Core Views - The listing of platinum and palladium futures will create a "Chinese price", eliminating exchange - rate risk exposure for enterprises, and the contract delivery design is more in line with domestic industrial characteristics, improving hedging efficiency for industrial users. Options provide more flexible risk - management tools [4][7] - Platinum and palladium supply are both highly concentrated. Platinum demand is diverse, while palladium demand is highly focused on automobile exhaust catalysts. China is a major consumer but lacks resources [4] - The fundamentals of platinum involve supply shortages and diverse demand, so the main strategy is to buy on dips. Palladium's largest demand area, automobile exhaust catalysts, is being eroded by the electric vehicle wave, facing a structural decline. A long - platinum and short - palladium strategy is the mainstream medium - to - long - term arbitrage strategy [4] - The first - day listing prices of platinum and palladium futures announced by GZEX are lower than the prices calculated based on overseas markets. It is expected that there will be a concentrated release of long - position funds after the opening, and price fluctuations may be large [4][21] Trading Rules - Platinum and palladium futures are officially listed on GZEX today, and options will be listed tomorrow (November 28). The trading unit is 1000 grams per lot, the quotation unit is yuan/gram, and the contract months are even - numbered months. The trading time is from 9:00 to 11:30 am and 13:30 to 15:00 pm, with no night trading. The last trading day is the 10th trading day of the contract month, and the last delivery date is the 3rd trading day after the last trading day [5] - The first - day listing contracts are for the months of 2606, 2608, and 2610. The minimum price change is 0.05 yuan/gram. The initial margin level on the listing day is 9% of the contract value, and the price limit is 14% of the listing benchmark price. If there is trading, the margin remains at 9% from the next trading day, and the price limit is adjusted to 7% of the previous trading day's settlement price. If there is no trading, the initial margin and price limit remain unchanged [6] - Platinum and palladium futures use physical delivery, with a delivery unit of 1000 grams. The delivery products must have a content of not less than 99.95%, and can be in the form of ingots, sponge, or powder. There are both factory - warehouse and regular - warehouse delivery methods, and the delivery methods include transfer of futures to cash, rolling delivery, and one - time delivery [6] Supply and Demand Characteristics Supply - Global platinum - group mineral resources are highly concentrated, and mining development is slow. In recent years, global platinum - gold mine production has generally declined due to factors such as power crises, safety accidents, political uncertainties in South Africa, and reduced capital expenditure and corporate restructuring by mining companies. In 2024, 71% of platinum - mine production came from South Africa, and South Africa and Russia contributed 38% and 39% of palladium - mine production respectively, with the top ten platinum - palladium mines accounting for over 70% of production and the top five palladium - mine enterprises accounting for 80.4% [8] Demand - Platinum demand is diverse, used in multiple industries such as automotive, chemical, new energy, electronics, and jewelry. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in automobile exhaust catalysts, with nearly 80% of global palladium consumption in this area. Platinum's demand structure is more stable, while palladium demand has been declining in the past three years due to the impact of new - energy vehicles [13][14] China's Situation - China has scarce platinum - group resources, with a reserve of only 87.69 tons, less than 0.1% of the global total, and a 2024 production of 4.9 tons, less than 1% of the global output. China's platinum and palladium supply is highly dependent on imports, with a 2024 platinum import - dependence of 80% and a palladium import - dependence of 55% [15][18] - China's platinum and palladium demand is rising. In 2024, China's apparent consumption of platinum was 185.25 tons and that of palladium was 97.04 tons, with market sizes of 424.16 billion yuan and 252.78 billion yuan respectively. With the "dual - carbon" strategy, green industries are the main source of incremental demand [18] Strategy Recommendations Medium - to - Long - Term Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Buy platinum on dips [4][21][22] - Arbitrage strategy: Long platinum and short palladium [3][4][21] Short - Term Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Buy both platinum and palladium at the opening [3][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Platinum: Bullish; Palladium: Sideways; Platinum-Palladium Ratio: Bullish [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the significant price increases of platinum and palladium were driven by macro - support and actual spot shortages. The price trends in the first round were more driven by fundamentals, and the second round was largely influenced by the precious metal market. The macro - situation is bullish in the medium - long term but volatile in the short term. The fundamentals are marginally looser but still have room for speculation. The US tariff policy is a crucial variable [1][2][24] - The platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025. Based on the comparison of listing benchmark prices with domestic spot and Nymex futures prices, different trading strategies are recommended, including unilateral trading, inter - commodity arbitrage, internal - external arbitrage, and inter - period arbitrage [3][10][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum/Palladium Futures Contract Formal Draft - The platinum and palladium futures will be officially listed on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange on November 27, 2025. The first - batch listed contracts and trading rules are specified, and compared with the previous draft for comments, the position limit has been modified [10] - The contract parameters of platinum and palladium futures, including trading unit, price quotation unit, etc., are detailed, and the position limit system is also provided [11][13][14] - Other points to note include the long - term expiration of the first - batch listed contracts, the trading time and its impact on internal - external arbitrage [16] 3.2 Platinum/Palladium Futures Delivery Rules Attention Points - The platinum and palladium futures contracts support futures - to - spot, rolling delivery, and one - time delivery. The delivery is carried out in both warehouses and factories. There are differences in quality requirements between domestic and imported delivery products [17] - The delivery regions, delivery warehouses, and factories for platinum and palladium futures are specified. The first - batch registered brands and delivery forms are also introduced [20][22][23] 3.3 Recent Market Analysis and Outlook - From the beginning of 2025 to November 25, platinum and palladium had significant price increases, but their long - term cumulative increases were different. The price increases were driven by macro - factors and actual spot shortages [24] - The macro - situation is bullish in the medium - long term but volatile in the short term. The fundamentals are marginally looser. In 2026, the supply - demand gap of platinum may narrow, and the supply surplus of palladium may expand [26][27] - The US tariff policy is a key variable. Before the policy is implemented, it will support prices, but if the policy eases, prices may decline. There may be speculative hoarding in the market, and there are uncertainties in domestic prices [2][29][33] - The global mainstream ETF positions have declined recently, but the non - commercial net long positions on Nymex are still high. The net long position of palladium is approaching 0, which may affect some overseas precious metal allocation and quantitative funds [35] 3.4 Initial Listing Strategy Recommendations - The listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures are 405 yuan/gram and 365 yuan/gram respectively. Compared with domestic spot and Nymex futures prices, platinum is slightly undervalued, and palladium is slightly overvalued [38][39] - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to cautiously go long on platinum and wait and see for palladium in the short term [40] - Inter - commodity arbitrage: It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of going long on platinum and short on palladium, waiting for price reversal signals [41] - Internal - external arbitrage: It is recommended to use an interval trading approach and be cautious in actual operations [45] - Inter - period arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see at the initial listing stage as the arbitrage space is limited [45]