Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is seeking to exert more influence over the Federal Reserve's 12 regional banks, particularly by reviewing the selection process for regional bank presidents, who hold key voting power in interest rate decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Influence on Federal Reserve - The Trump administration is exploring ways to impact the Federal Reserve's regional banks, focusing on the selection process of regional bank presidents [1]. - Trump has expressed that once he has a majority in the Federal Reserve Board, the situation will improve, particularly in the real estate market, as current interest rates are perceived as too high [2]. - Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that if Trump successfully removes a Federal Reserve governor, he could gain a majority in the board, allowing him to push for more aggressive monetary easing policies [2]. Group 2: Reappointment Voting - A key tool identified by the Trump administration is the reappointment authority for regional bank presidents, which occurs every five years, with the next vote scheduled for February [3]. - Economists believe that if Trump secures a majority on the Federal Reserve Board, he could use the reappointment voting power to indirectly pressure hawkish regional bank presidents [4]. Group 3: Selection Process of Regional Bank Presidents - The selection process for regional bank presidents is under scrutiny, with the current structure allowing the boards of regional banks to select their presidents, involving both elected and appointed directors [5]. - The process has historically been closed, although some regional banks have attempted to open it up in response to criticism [5]. - The U.S. Treasury Secretary is reportedly interviewing candidates to succeed Powell, with those not selected for the Federal Reserve chair potentially being considered for regional bank president positions [5].

Group 1 - Recent global financial market volatility has led to significant declines in emerging market stocks and currencies, with the MSCI emerging market currency index dropping by 0.3% and the corresponding index for developing economy stocks falling by 1.3% [1] - The Taiwanese dollar and South Korean won have shown particularly weak performance, contributing to the overall decline in currencies [1] - Semiconductor giant TSMC has experienced the largest drop in the stock market, exacerbating market anxiety [1] Group 2 - The recent turbulence in the tech sector has severely impacted market sentiment, contrasting sharply with the previously positive outlook in European markets [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is once again in focus, with investors closely watching the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference for potential clues on future easing policies [1] - Traders widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve will implement interest rate cuts in September [1][3] Group 3 - Faergemann predicts that the Federal Reserve will take measures to cut interest rates in September and continue to do so quarterly over the next 12 months, aligning with a "soft landing" scenario [3] - Such a policy direction is seen as favorable for the credit market, including emerging market credit, although there are concerns about potential overvaluation in the current market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand is inclined to continue implementing an accommodative monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The central bank's decision reflects a broader trend in monetary policy aimed at supporting economic growth [1]

Group 1 - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - The potential for tariff adjustments may reshape supply chains and increase inflation, supporting gold prices [1] - The market anticipates a significant likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which could lower the dollar and bond yields, benefiting gold prices [1] Group 2 - Spot gold faced resistance at the key level of $3,400, reaching a two-week high of $3,409 before retreating due to short sellers [1] - The price trend is still forming an ascending triangle pattern, although a brief drop below the upward trend line last week has weakened this formation [1] - Technical indicators show a neutral to mildly bullish sentiment, with a daily RSI of 57 and a positive MACD, although the ADX indicates insufficient trend strength [3] Group 3 - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have increased safe-haven demand, pushing silver above the short-term support level of $37.87 [5] - If silver maintains above this level, it may challenge the 14-year high of $39.53; however, if it falls below, it could drop to $36.90, with the 50-day moving average providing the next support [5] - Short-term trading recommendations suggest buying on a pullback at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, with further upside potential to $39.00 if broken [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, which is below expectations, and a notable downward revision of June's figures from 147,000 to 14,000 [1] Labor Market Data - July's unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.2% [1] - The labor market is described as being in a state of balance due to simultaneous declines in supply and demand [1] Economic Implications - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is exacerbating the slowdown in job growth, alongside actions that reduce labor supply by targeting immigration [1] - Some economists believe that the window for the Federal Reserve to reinitiate easing policies is closing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the risks of rising prices, emphasizing the importance of its independence for price and macroeconomic stability [1] Group 1 - The central bank needs to observe whether food inflation will slow down as predicted [1] - Price trends are currently rising but remain below 2%, which is the reason for maintaining an accommodative policy [1] - The risk of lagging behind the yield curve is not considered high at this moment [1]

Group 1 - Gold prices are currently trading around $3327.60 per ounce, showing a rebound after a significant drop, with ongoing market speculation ahead of key economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting [1] - Crude oil prices have risen over 3% to approximately $69.22 per barrel, driven by optimism regarding the easing of trade tensions and increased pressure from the U.S. on Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict [1] - The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with market expectations for potential rate cuts in September or by the end of the year, which could impact the strength of the U.S. dollar and subsequently affect gold prices [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently facing resistance around $3438 and has retreated to a strong support level near $3320, indicating a potential trading opportunity for short-term positions [3] - The trading strategy for gold suggests entering long positions around $3325 with a stop loss at $3315, targeting price levels between $3338 and $3355 [3] - Crude oil is showing a strong upward trend, with a focus on confirming a second upward movement after a potential pullback, indicating a bullish outlook in the short term [3]

Core Viewpoint - The risks to economic growth are still tilted to the downside, as stated by Lagarde, which is not surprising given that trade uncertainties have not changed significantly [1] Group 1 - The dovish stance suggests that the Eurozone may still require additional support from accommodative policies [1]

Macroeconomic Outlook - Goldman Sachs updates China's wage growth index [1] - Near-term significant easing policies are less likely [1] - Expect incremental policies in the second half of the year [1]

【行情回顾】 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3356美元或3343美元附近支撑；上方关注3385美元或3400美元附近阻力； 周一（7月14日），上周五，美元指数区间震荡，始终徘徊在98关口下方，最终收涨0.307%，报97.85， 全周累涨近1%，脱离三年来的低点。由于特朗普宣布更多关税信函后避险情绪升温，现货黄金连续第 三日走高，盘中触及6月24日以来的最高水平，最终收涨0.99%，收报3355.91美元/盎司；现货白银涨势 更加显著，最终收涨3.56%，报38.38美元/盎司，创2011年9月以来新高。 现货白银：下方关注38.10美元或37.65美元支撑；上方关注38.60美元或39.00美元阻力。 根据上周特朗普在接待以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的白宫晚宴上表示，美国将对乌克兰输送更多武器，以帮 助乌克兰进行自卫。我们将不得不提供更多武器，以及坦白说，我对普京总统没有停下来感到失望等。 市场对特朗普最新关税声明的担忧情绪升温，特朗普近期的广泛政策提议，包括对加拿大、巴西以及铜 进口加征新关税，加剧了8月1日前的市场不确定性，从而提升了黄金等避险资产的吸引力。 与此同时，市场对于美联储将采取更加鸽派立场的预 ...