来源：金十数据 e field and the line of the mail the 金源期货:宜春采矿权注销消息引发多头情绪高涨,放量突破前高。但需警惕冲 高回落:注销矿权多为到期且非核心产能;基本面上需求走弱,储能排产停滞; 社会库存去化放缓甚至存隐性库存风险。年底资金回流压力下,不建议过度追 高。 | 今日热点资讯 广期所强化穿透式监管,严打违规行为,切实保障市场平稳运行。 监管 ae 印尼镍矿商协会:2026年镍矿石产量目标大幅下调至2.5亿吨(2025年为 3.79亿吨),意在防止镍价进一步下跌。 综合市场分析指出,今日市场情绪高涨,碳酸锂在"注销采矿权"消息刺激 热门品种机构观点 一、铂、钯期货主力合约：铂钯期货今日双双涨停，均创上市以来新高！ 多晶硅分会:12月产量预计仍在12万吨以内,西南枯水期减产限制了复 光伏 产增量。预计2025全年产量133万吨。 ■ 找钢网数据:全国建材周度产量增加2.87万吨,但社库和总库均出现超30 万吨的降幅,表需回升。 | 板块涨跌幅 工业品 新能源 n sa se + 4 4 % | 软商 | 油脂链 | 油脂 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Core Insights - The domestic commodity futures market showed overall strength on December 17, with most varieties rising significantly, as indicated by the increase in the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index and the China Securities Commodity Futures Index [1][3]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1518.98 points, up 10.71 points or 0.71% from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2096.85 points, up 14.02 points or 0.67% from the previous trading day [1]. - Lithium carbonate led the market with a rise of nearly 9% during the day and closed up 7.61%, outperforming platinum and palladium [3][4]. Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - Disruptions in the mining sector led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, with concerns over lithium supply due to the proposed cancellation of 27 mining licenses by the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau [3]. - Despite the concerns, the actual impact on lithium supply is expected to be limited as some mines, like the Lion Ridge mine, were already set to cease operations before 2025 [3]. - The market outlook suggests that even in the off-season, prices may remain strong due to robust demand expectations driven by planned capacity for cathodes [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Industrial precious metals, particularly platinum and palladium, saw significant gains, with both reaching their daily limit and setting historical highs [4]. - Silver prices also surged over 5%, closing above 15,500 yuan per kilogram, supported by a weaker U.S. non-farm payroll report that increased market expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. - The supply tightness in palladium is providing fundamental support for its price, while high leasing rates for platinum indicate ongoing supply pressure [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Products and Oil Market - Agricultural products collectively weakened, with soybean oil leading the decline at 1.69%, while other agricultural commodities also saw mild decreases [5]. - The oilseed market is facing a supply surplus, particularly with ample global soybean supplies affecting U.S. soybean prices [5]. - International oil prices hit a multi-year low but rebounded due to geopolitical factors, with U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers providing a temporary boost to the market [6].

股指期货日报 2025年11月26日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指涨跌不一，市场存在分歧 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，除中证1000指数收跌外其余均收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落288.01亿元。期指 方面，IF、IH缩量上涨，IC持平，IM缩量下跌。 重要资讯 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 上证涨跌幅（%） | -0.15 | | 深证涨跌幅（%） | 1.02 | | 个股涨跌数比 | 0.47 | | 两市成交额（亿元） | 17833.46 | | 成交额环比（亿元） | -288.01 | 核心观点 昨晚美国公布最新PPI数据，核心PPI环比增速低于市场预期，强化市场降息预期，不过由于在数据公布前， 联邦基金利率期货价格显示美联储12月降息概率已高于80%，即市场已提前交易降息预期，因此市场反应相 对平淡。期指基差方面，与现货表现分化，今日现货走势相对较弱的IH、IM贴水收敛，IF、IC则贴水加深， 表明市场存在分歧，多空博弈特征较强。关注今晚将公布的美国PCE物价数据，若超出市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. employment data has significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations for December, which has put pressure on gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The September non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, far surpassing the market forecast of 50,000, while the August data was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1]. - The release of this employment report has prompted investors to reassess the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the subsequent policy space [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at approximately 39% [1]. - The Fed's cautious stance, as reiterated by several officials, aligns with the need to balance slowing job growth against persistent inflation [1]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Despite the pressure from changing interest rate expectations, there remains solid support for gold due to ongoing inflows of safe-haven funds amid global macro risks [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China added 1.2 tons of gold in September, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2]. - Gold is currently consolidating within the range of $4,080 to $4,100, with stronger employment data limiting upward movement while ongoing central bank purchases provide a reliable support base [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The direction of gold prices will depend on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly whether signs of further economic slowdown emerge [3]. - The overall strategy suggests maintaining flexibility in positions and avoiding heavy bets on trends, focusing on event-driven phases [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Since Tuesday this week, the gold price has rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold rebounded after falling below $4000 and reached the $4100 mark last night. Shanghai gold once rebounded above 940 last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in precious metals was mainly due to hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials, which reduced the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the downward revision of the interest - rate - cut expectation was largely due to the market's previous optimistic expectations, and its sustainability is not strong, and it will return to being data - driven. The market sentiment has improved significantly, and the market's sentiment of reduced interest - rate - cut expectation has been released, leading to short - term emotional repair [3]. - **Key Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data for September to be released on Thursday this week and subsequent economic data, which will directly affect the market's expectation of Fed policies and determine the short - term trend of precious metals [3]. - **Long - term Impact**: After the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of October, market risk appetite has increased. If there is significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the gold price may continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the $4000 mark below and the resistance at $4200 above [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper showed a slightly upward oscillation yesterday, and the main contract price stood above the 86,000 mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the market has warmed up, precious metals have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metals have also shown a rebound trend. The short - term market sentiment towards the Fed's hawkish stance has been released, and the market may experience emotional repair. In the industry, spot trading has also improved [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the 86,000 mark [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, due to the Fed turning hawkish, the gold price has declined in the short - term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the downward revision of the interest - rate cut expectation may not be sustainable and subsequent economic data will be crucial for its short - term trend [1][3]. - For copper, although there is short - term volatility due to the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs, in the long - run, it is expected to be strong as macro - economic easing and supply contraction are likely to support the copper price [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: The New York gold hit the bottom and rebounded at the $4000 mark. The gold price is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term shock, and intraday shock - weak pattern [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a decline in the market's interest - rate cut expectation. As of November 18, the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%, compared to over 70% in early November. The focus should be on the September US non - farm payroll data to be released this Thursday and subsequent economic data, which will determine the short - term trend of precious metals. Technically, the $4000 mark support should be monitored [3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The copper price rebounded last night. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once recovered the 86,000 mark and then declined, with a slight increase in open interest. It is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term strong, and intraday shock - strong pattern [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The market's expectation of a December 2025 interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%. The London copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction are expected to support the copper price. Technically, the long - short battle at the 86,000 mark should be monitored [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a downward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, causing the gold price to decline in the short term [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "strength", and "oscillation with an upward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic conditions are loose and there are mine - end production cuts. In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate, but in the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the gold price dropped significantly from its high, erasing all weekly gains. On Monday, it maintained a weak trend, with the New York gold price diving in the late trading and approaching the $4000 mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in the gold price is largely due to the Fed's hawkish turn. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that the market's expectation of a rate cut in December 2025 has dropped below 50%. Short - term gold price has fallen after a rise, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to take profits. Attention should be paid to the support at the $4000 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Overnight, the copper price continued its weak oscillation. The recent decline in the copper price is mainly due to the Fed's hawkish turn, which has reduced the market's rate - cut expectations. The London copper price is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure [4]. - **Driving Factors**: In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Affected by the short - selling of Nvidia and Palantir by the fund under Michael Burry, the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", the US stock AI sector plunged. Coupled with intensified concerns about high valuations, US stocks tumbled, and the Asia - Pacific market continued to decline generally. The A - share market's risk appetite was affected, opening lower today. The large - cap stock index was relatively resilient, rising before the morning close with a style switch between large and small - cap stocks. Except for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, all other indices closed higher at the afternoon close, with the TMT sector leading the decline throughout the day. In the three trading days this week, the intraday trend of stock indices rebounded, indicating strong support below, but lacking sufficient upward momentum. The trading volume of the two markets has been below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, showing a state of being supported but not rising. There are long - short differences in the current market, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The US ADP data to be released tonight is expected to influence the market's interest - rate cut expectations and thus have an impact on the stock index trend [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Composite 50, which slightly declined, all other stock indices closed higher. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed up 0.19%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 434.17 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH declined with increasing volume, while other varieties rose with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government's "shutdown" will break the record. - The "Big Short" is short - selling 80% of his positions in Palantir and Nvidia, expressing a bearish view on the AI bubble [3] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.41 | - 0.01 | 0.55 | 0.77 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.6616 | 5.312 | 14.7163 | 23.8684 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.1583 | 0.2586 | 0.3196 | 0.5106 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.004 | 9.6978 | 25.6435 | 36.6783 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.158 | 0.2204 | 0.4279 | 0.331 | [5] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite change (%) | 0.23 | | Shenzhen Component change (%) | 0.37 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18723.41 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 434.17 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been significant, with prices experiencing both sharp declines and rebounds, reflecting a volatile market sentiment [1] Price Movements - International gold prices surged over $4,000 per ounce before quickly retreating, with a notable increase of nearly $600 per ounce in the first two weeks of October, reaching a peak of $4,381 per ounce [1] - As of October 30, gold prices were fluctuating around $3,950 per ounce, indicating a substantial drop from the earlier highs [1] Market Sentiment - The recent volatility in gold prices has led to discussions among Asian central bank officials about the potential need to sell gold [1] - The market's reaction includes profit-taking behavior following the rapid price increase, which is seen as a normal market phenomenon [1] Economic Influences - The decline in gold prices is attributed to a reduction in market risk aversion, influenced by improved U.S.-China trade relations and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent statements have indicated that further interest rate cuts are not guaranteed, which has cooled market expectations and contributed to the fluctuations in gold prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have led to significant market volatility, with prices experiencing both sharp declines and rebounds, indicating a divided market sentiment [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - International gold prices surged past $4,000 before quickly retreating, with New York futures prices dropping while London spot prices increased [2]. - As of October 30, gold prices were oscillating around $3,950 after a peak of $4,381 earlier in the month, reflecting a nearly $600 increase in the first two weeks [6]. - The recent volatility is attributed to profit-taking after rapid price increases, which some analysts view as a normal market reaction [6]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Philippine central bank officials have suggested considering gold sales due to high current holdings, which stand at approximately 13% of their $109 billion international reserves [3]. - The former central bank governor indicated that an ideal gold reserve ratio should be between 8% and 12%, suggesting potential adjustments to current holdings [3]. - Analysts believe that the Philippines' gold sales would have a limited direct impact on the global gold market due to the country's small economic size, accounting for only 0.4% of the global economy [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The decline in gold prices is also linked to reduced market risk aversion, influenced by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts [7]. - Despite the recent volatility, analysts maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices, supported by ongoing U.S. fiscal risks and strong central bank demand for gold [8][9]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks and institutional investors will continue to increase their gold allocations amid rising global uncertainties [8].