Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [2] Core View - The December non - farm payrolls in the US fell short of expectations, and the job market continued to cool. The new employment center continued to decline, but the unemployment rate dropped again, and the overall downward risk was still controllable. The market's expectation for interest rate cuts remained cautious after the data was released, with a high probability of a pause in rate cuts in January, and 1 - 2 rate cuts within 2026 likely to occur in the second half of the year [3][4][39] Summary by Relevant Catalog US 12 - month Non - farm Payrolls and Job Market Analysis - Non - farm payroll data: In December, non - farm payrolls added 50,000 jobs, less than the market expectation of 60,000. The average monthly new jobs in the past 12 months were 48,000, and the new employment center further declined. The new employment numbers in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the market expectation and the previous value, and the labor participation rate marginally declined to 62.4%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.3% month - on - month, up from the previous value and in line with expectations, and 3.8% year - on - year, higher than expectations and the previous value [3][9] - Sector - specific employment: New employment mainly came from leisure and hospitality (47,000), education and healthcare (41,000), and government (13,000). All industries in the production sector laid off workers, and the manufacturing industry was still under pressure due to high interest rates. The drag on employment from the government sector eased, and the service industry maintained employment resilience [3] - Private service employment: Private service employment added 58,000 jobs, up from the previous value. However, the retail industry laid off 25,000 workers for the third consecutive month, and the employment structure continued to deteriorate [19] - Government employment: In December, government employment increased by 13,000, with federal government employment increasing slightly by 2,000. Since January 2025, federal government employment has decreased by 277,000, a decline of 9.2%, and the subsequent drag on the job market from the government sector may ease [19] - Service industry employment: The end - of - year consumer demand rebounded, and employment in the catering service industry increased. The ISM service PMI in December rebounded significantly to 54.4, and the employment sub - index rose to 52, indicating that the service employment market remained resilient [23] - Production sector employment: The production sector continued to lay off workers, with a reduction of 21,000 jobs in December. The ISM manufacturing PMI in December further declined to 47.9, and the traditional manufacturing industry was still suppressed in a high - interest - rate environment [26] - Job vacancies: In November, the number of job vacancies dropped to 7.15 million, lower than expectations and the previous value. The service industry's job vacancies decreased significantly, while the production sector's job vacancies increased slightly [30] - Wage growth: In December, wage growth rebounded marginally, with a month - on - month growth rate of 0.3% and a year - on - year growth rate of 3.8% higher than expectations. Most industries saw a rebound in wage growth, except for construction, professional and business services, and education and healthcare [34] - Working hours: In December, the average weekly working hours were 34.2 hours, slightly lower than expectations and the previous value. Most industries saw a decline in working hours, and the overall economic situation was stable [36] Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical risks have increased recently, with the Trump administration's military actions in Venezuela and its interest in Greenland's sovereignty. This has triggered short - term market risk - aversion sentiment, providing support for the US dollar index and precious metals. Economic data is mixed, and the market's expectation for the new Fed chair is divided between Hassett and Waller. The expectation for interest rate cuts remains cautious, with the US Treasury yield oscillating upwards and the US stock market oscillating at a high level [5][44]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with a majority of officials suggesting that further cuts may be appropriate if inflation decreases, while some advocate for maintaining the current rates for a period [1][2] - The gold futures market shows a current price of 977.56 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.85%, with a trading range between 964.00 CNY and 993.76 CNY [1] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders leaning towards the expectation of two rate cuts in 2026 rather than a more aggressive approach of three cuts [2] Group 2 - The OPEC+ group is expected to maintain its current production pause, indicating stability in oil supply levels [1] - The dollar index has rebounded, suggesting a shift in market dynamics that may impact commodity prices, including gold [2] - The strategy for gold trading remains cautiously optimistic, with long-term bullish logic intact despite short-term momentum being weak [2]

Group 1 - The cancellation of mining rights in Yichun has led to a surge in bullish sentiment, with carbonated lithium prices breaking previous highs, but caution is advised as the market may experience a pullback [3][10] - The majority of the cancelled mining rights are non-core capacities and have already expired, indicating limited impact on supply [10][11] - Demand for carbonated lithium is weakening, with production of cathodes and battery cells declining, and social inventory reduction slowing down, raising concerns about hidden inventory risks [10][11] Group 2 - The nickel ore production target for Indonesian miners has been significantly lowered to 250 million tons for 2026, down from 379 million tons in 2025, aiming to prevent further declines in nickel prices [4] - The production of polysilicon is expected to remain below 120,000 tons in December due to reduced output during the dry season in Southwest China, with an annual production forecast of 1.33 million tons for 2025 [4] - Weekly construction material production has increased by 28,700 tons, but both social and total inventories have seen a decline of over 300,000 tons, indicating a potential recovery in demand [4] Group 3 - Platinum and palladium futures have both hit their daily limit up, reaching new highs since their listing, driven by strong macroeconomic factors and a bullish sentiment in precious metals [8][9] - The supply of palladium is under pressure, with high spot leasing rates indicating ongoing supply constraints, while platinum is expected to remain in a tight supply-demand situation through 2025 [9] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts have provided support for gold and silver prices, with silver outperforming gold due to supply shortages [12][13]

Core Insights - The domestic commodity futures market showed overall strength on December 17, with most varieties rising significantly, as indicated by the increase in the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index and the China Securities Commodity Futures Index [1][3]. Group 1: Commodity Performance - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1518.98 points, up 10.71 points or 0.71% from the previous trading day [1]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 2096.85 points, up 14.02 points or 0.67% from the previous trading day [1]. - Lithium carbonate led the market with a rise of nearly 9% during the day and closed up 7.61%, outperforming platinum and palladium [3][4]. Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - Disruptions in the mining sector led to a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, with concerns over lithium supply due to the proposed cancellation of 27 mining licenses by the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau [3]. - Despite the concerns, the actual impact on lithium supply is expected to be limited as some mines, like the Lion Ridge mine, were already set to cease operations before 2025 [3]. - The market outlook suggests that even in the off-season, prices may remain strong due to robust demand expectations driven by planned capacity for cathodes [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Industrial precious metals, particularly platinum and palladium, saw significant gains, with both reaching their daily limit and setting historical highs [4]. - Silver prices also surged over 5%, closing above 15,500 yuan per kilogram, supported by a weaker U.S. non-farm payroll report that increased market expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. - The supply tightness in palladium is providing fundamental support for its price, while high leasing rates for platinum indicate ongoing supply pressure [4]. Group 4: Agricultural Products and Oil Market - Agricultural products collectively weakened, with soybean oil leading the decline at 1.69%, while other agricultural commodities also saw mild decreases [5]. - The oilseed market is facing a supply surplus, particularly with ample global soybean supplies affecting U.S. soybean prices [5]. - International oil prices hit a multi-year low but rebounded due to geopolitical factors, with U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers providing a temporary boost to the market [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last night, the US released the latest PPI data. The month-on-month growth rate of core PPI was lower than market expectations, strengthening the market's expectation of an interest rate cut. However, before the data release, the federal funds rate futures price showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December was already higher than 80%, meaning the market had already priced in the rate cut expectation in advance, so the market reaction was relatively muted. In terms of the basis of index futures, it diverged from the performance of the spot market. Today, the discounts of IH and IM, whose spot prices showed relatively weak trends, converged, while the discounts of IF and IC deepened, indicating market divergence and strong long-short gaming characteristics. Attention should be paid to the US PCE price data to be released tonight. If it exceeds market expectations, the market will reprice under the adjustment of the rate cut expectation, and the stock index will face downward pressure. If it is lower than or in line with market expectations, it will further strengthen the expectation of a rate cut in December, providing support for the stock index. However, due to the unresolved Sino-Japanese conflict, which suppresses market risk appetite, it is expected that the stock index will remain volatile [4] Market Review - Today, the stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the CSI 1000 Index, which closed down, the rest closed up. In terms of capital flow, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 28.801 billion yuan. In the index futures market, IF and IH rose with shrinking volume, IC remained flat, and IM fell with shrinking volume [2] Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation - The intraday percentage changes of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 0.42%, 0.14%, 0.00%, and -0.19% respectively. The trading volumes were 97,287 lots, 35,489 lots, 106,970 lots, and 177,550 lots respectively, with month-on-month decreases of 11,646 lots, 8,377 lots, 27,747 lots, and 35,642 lots respectively. The open interests were 259,294 lots, 86,208 lots, 249,088 lots, and 361,227 lots respectively, with month-on-month decreases of 5,280 lots, 2,274 lots, 9,043 lots, and 6,709 lots respectively [6] Spot Market Observation - The percentage changes of the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index were -0.15% and 1.02% respectively. The ratio of rising stocks to falling stocks was 0.47. The trading volume of the two markets was 1,783.346 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 28.801 billion yuan [8] Important Information - In September, the US PPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, with rising energy costs driving inflation. The month-on-month growth rate of core PPI was lower than expected. The ADP weekly report showed that the average weekly reduction of private sector jobs in the US in the past four weeks was 13,500, with an intensifying job loss. Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. employment data has significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations for December, which has put pressure on gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Impact - The September non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, far surpassing the market forecast of 50,000, while the August data was revised down to a decrease of 4,000 [1]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, indicating potential challenges in the labor market [1]. - The release of this employment report has prompted investors to reassess the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the subsequent policy space [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the employment report, the market's expectation for a rate cut in December has decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut now at approximately 39% [1]. - The Fed's cautious stance, as reiterated by several officials, aligns with the need to balance slowing job growth against persistent inflation [1]. Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Despite the pressure from changing interest rate expectations, there remains solid support for gold due to ongoing inflows of safe-haven funds amid global macro risks [2][3]. - The People's Bank of China added 1.2 tons of gold in September, marking the 12th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2]. - Gold is currently consolidating within the range of $4,080 to $4,100, with stronger employment data limiting upward movement while ongoing central bank purchases provide a reliable support base [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The direction of gold prices will depend on upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly whether signs of further economic slowdown emerge [3]. - The overall strategy suggests maintaining flexibility in positions and avoiding heavy bets on trends, focusing on event-driven phases [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, reducing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is "oscillation", the mid - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - level easing and mine - end production cuts [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Since Tuesday this week, the gold price has rebounded after hitting a low. New York gold rebounded after falling below $4000 and reached the $4100 mark last night. Shanghai gold once rebounded above 940 last night [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in precious metals was mainly due to hawkish remarks from multiple Fed officials, which reduced the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. However, the downward revision of the interest - rate - cut expectation was largely due to the market's previous optimistic expectations, and its sustainability is not strong, and it will return to being data - driven. The market sentiment has improved significantly, and the market's sentiment of reduced interest - rate - cut expectation has been released, leading to short - term emotional repair [3]. - **Key Data**: Pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data for September to be released on Thursday this week and subsequent economic data, which will directly affect the market's expectation of Fed policies and determine the short - term trend of precious metals [3]. - **Long - term Impact**: After the APEC meeting between Chinese and US leaders at the end of October, market risk appetite has increased. If there is significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine situation, the gold price may continue to be under pressure [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the $4000 mark below and the resistance at $4200 above [3]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Shanghai copper showed a slightly upward oscillation yesterday, and the main contract price stood above the 86,000 mark [4]. - **Driving Factors**: At the macro level, the market has warmed up, precious metals have rebounded significantly, and non - ferrous metals have also shown a rebound trend. The short - term market sentiment towards the Fed's hawkish stance has been released, and the market may experience emotional repair. In the industry, spot trading has also improved [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Pay attention to the support at the 86,000 mark [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, due to the Fed turning hawkish, the gold price has declined in the short - term. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the downward revision of the interest - rate cut expectation may not be sustainable and subsequent economic data will be crucial for its short - term trend [1][3]. - For copper, although there is short - term volatility due to the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs, in the long - run, it is expected to be strong as macro - economic easing and supply contraction are likely to support the copper price [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Trends**: The New York gold hit the bottom and rebounded at the $4000 mark. The gold price is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term shock, and intraday shock - weak pattern [3]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed officials' hawkish remarks have led to a decline in the market's interest - rate cut expectation. As of November 18, the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%, compared to over 70% in early November. The focus should be on the September US non - farm payroll data to be released this Thursday and subsequent economic data, which will determine the short - term trend of precious metals. Technically, the $4000 mark support should be monitored [3]. Copper - **Price Trends**: The copper price rebounded last night. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once recovered the 86,000 mark and then declined, with a slight increase in open interest. It is expected to be in a short - term shock, medium - term strong, and intraday shock - strong pattern [4]. - **Driving Factors**: The market's expectation of a December 2025 interest - rate cut has dropped below 50%. The London copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction are expected to support the copper price. Technically, the long - short battle at the 86,000 mark should be monitored [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a downward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, causing the gold price to decline in the short term [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "strength", and "oscillation with an upward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic conditions are loose and there are mine - end production cuts. In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate, but in the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: On Friday, the gold price dropped significantly from its high, erasing all weekly gains. On Monday, it maintained a weak trend, with the New York gold price diving in the late trading and approaching the $4000 mark [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The recent decline in the gold price is largely due to the Fed's hawkish turn. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that the market's expectation of a rate cut in December 2025 has dropped below 50%. Short - term gold price has fallen after a rise, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to take profits. Attention should be paid to the support at the $4000 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Overnight, the copper price continued its weak oscillation. The recent decline in the copper price is mainly due to the Fed's hawkish turn, which has reduced the market's rate - cut expectations. The London copper price is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure [4]. - **Driving Factors**: In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - Affected by the short - selling of Nvidia and Palantir by the fund under Michael Burry, the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", the US stock AI sector plunged. Coupled with intensified concerns about high valuations, US stocks tumbled, and the Asia - Pacific market continued to decline generally. The A - share market's risk appetite was affected, opening lower today. The large - cap stock index was relatively resilient, rising before the morning close with a style switch between large and small - cap stocks. Except for the Shanghai Composite 50 Index, all other indices closed higher at the afternoon close, with the TMT sector leading the decline throughout the day. In the three trading days this week, the intraday trend of stock indices rebounded, indicating strong support below, but lacking sufficient upward momentum. The trading volume of the two markets has been below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, showing a state of being supported but not rising. There are long - short differences in the current market, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The US ADP data to be released tonight is expected to influence the market's interest - rate cut expectations and thus have an impact on the stock index trend [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Composite 50, which slightly declined, all other stock indices closed higher. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed up 0.19%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 434.17 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH declined with increasing volume, while other varieties rose with increasing volume [2] Important Information - The US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, and the federal government's "shutdown" will break the record. - The "Big Short" is short - selling 80% of his positions in Palantir and Nvidia, expressing a bearish view on the AI bubble [3] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.41 | - 0.01 | 0.55 | 0.77 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.6616 | 5.312 | 14.7163 | 23.8684 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.1583 | 0.2586 | 0.3196 | 0.5106 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.004 | 9.6978 | 25.6435 | 36.6783 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 0.158 | 0.2204 | 0.4279 | 0.331 | [5] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite change (%) | 0.23 | | Shenzhen Component change (%) | 0.37 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.77 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 18723.41 | | Trading volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 434.17 | [6]