Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in April showed signs of insufficient recovery, with a notable divergence between the performance of second-hand and new homes, indicating a potential stabilization in first and second-tier cities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In April, new home sales weakened both year-on-year and month-on-month, with the transaction area of commercial housing declining by 2.9% year-on-year, a drop of 1.4 percentage points compared to March, and a month-on-month decline exceeding 40% [3]. - The average sales price of new homes fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with a decline of 3.5 percentage points compared to March [3]. - In contrast, the second-hand housing market showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% in transaction area across 18 sample cities, despite a month-on-month decrease of 7.3% [3]. Group 2: City-Level Analysis - Among 30 major cities, the transaction area of commercial housing decreased by 12.1% year-on-year in April, with first-tier cities demonstrating resilience due to the support of quality housing supply, leading to a recovery in sales growth to over 20% year-on-year in May (up to the 25th) [3]. - Second-tier and lower-tier cities continue to face pressure, with no improvement in year-on-year growth rates for new home transactions [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The rental yield in April reached 2.3%, with the spread over the 30-year treasury yield increasing to 42 basis points since the beginning of the year, indicating potential for long-term stability in the real estate market when rental yields exceed 2.5% [3]. - The proportion of second-hand home transactions increased to 59.0% in the first four months of the year, up 6.7 percentage points from the entire year of 2024, suggesting a shift from a growth phase to a maturity phase in the market [3]. Group 4: Inventory and Future Outlook - Narrow inventory remains high, but broad inventory has returned to 2010 levels, with de-stocking pressure mainly on existing homes [4]. - The implementation of new housing regulations and adjustments in land acquisition strategies by real estate companies may alleviate the pressure between new supply and existing home inventory [4]. - Cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen in the first tier, and Chengdu, Hohhot, and Nanchang in the second tier, are seen as having conditions favorable for early stabilization in their real estate markets [4].

Core Viewpoint - The national real estate market is still at the bottom left side, but the conditions for stabilization in first-tier and core second-tier cities are gradually maturing [1][33]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market is experiencing increased differentiation, with new home sales declining by 2.9% year-on-year in April, while second-hand home sales in 18 sample cities increased by 20.8% year-on-year [3][10]. - In the first quarter, the transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities saw a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with first-tier cities achieving an impressive 18.4% growth [3][10]. - The land auction market shows mixed performance, with some cities like Hangzhou and Shanghai seeing high premium transactions, while most cities experience relatively cold land auctions [4]. Group 2: Indicators of Market Stabilization - The rental yield in April 2025 was 2.31%, with the spread over the 30-year government bond yield rising from -58 basis points at the beginning of 2024 to 42 basis points, indicating improved attractiveness of real estate as an investment [11][14]. - The proportion of second-hand home transactions in 18 sample cities reached 59.0% in the first four months of 2025, up 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, suggesting a shift towards a more mature market [21][25]. - The narrow inventory of completed but unsold residential properties stood at 420 million square meters in April, with a de-stocking cycle of 21.6 months, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [27][31]. Group 3: City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities are showing signs of stabilization, with the de-stocking cycle for residential properties around 14.7 months, while second-tier cities are experiencing a longer cycle of 19.5 months [31]. - The second-hand home transaction proportion in first-tier cities was 63.7%, indicating a more mature market compared to second and third-tier cities [21][25]. - The new housing projects launched under the new regulations are expected to enhance the practicality, safety, and comfort of residential properties, potentially leading to a significant differentiation in new home sales [31].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since the first quarter of 2025, driven by supportive policies and improved market confidence [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The report indicates that various indicators of the real estate market began to improve and stabilize in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to a series of policy supports [1] - Since the first quarter of 2025, market transactions have gradually stopped declining and started to stabilize [1] Group 2: Land Acquisition - In 2024, real estate companies exhibited a high degree of similarity in land acquisition choices, primarily focusing on core plots in first and second-tier cities [1] - Leading real estate firms are leveraging their financial advantages to strategically increase their reserves of high-quality land resources in major cities [1] - Competition for key plots is intense, while many small and medium-sized firms are constrained by liquidity pressures, leading to a contraction in their investment scope [1] Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - Companies are encouraged to actively seize structural opportunities by exploring the diverse structural demands of different cities and homebuyer groups [1] - Enhancing the ability to realize value from inventory is crucial for driving sales growth and improving cash flow [1]

过半小区房价环比上涨，高频交易小区数量创新高，议价空间创新低 ◎ 文 / 马千里 在本周的国新办经济数据发布会上，对于当下房地产市场的走势，国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖表示， 4月份房地产市场交易和价格基本稳定，部分一、二线城市交易活跃度有所提升。70个大中城市中，一、 二、三线二手住宅销售价格同比收窄0.9、0.5和0.4个百分点。CRIC监测重点城市4月份平均去化率37%， 较上年同期高出13个百分点。 与我们上月判断一致，在3月份短暂调整之后，4月重点城市房价上涨的小区占比达到51.9%，再度超过半 数。与信心企稳同步，议价空间进一步收窄，高端小区房价延续领涨。随着挂牌价与成交价差距的持续收 缩，二手房正在释放出更多企稳新信号： 过半小区房价环比上行 高频交易小区数量再创新高 01 为探析二手房成交价格的动向，研究中心以北京、上海等11个典型城市的二手房小区为样本，为避免单套 异常成交影响较大，每个月样本小区的选取标准，均为近2个月交易量不小于5套。 从统计结果来看， 4月有51.9%的小区成交价格环比上升，较上月增加3个百分点，高频交易小区数量环比 增长62%，创下年内新高，更多小区迎来成交"解冻" ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][69] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates and the expected incremental policies are anticipated to boost home buying willingness and ability, thereby stabilizing the real estate market fundamentals [3][6] - The central bank's actions, including a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 percentage point policy interest rate reduction, are expected to provide long-term liquidity of approximately 1 trillion yuan to the market [3][6] - The report highlights that the real estate sector is gradually entering a bottoming phase after three consecutive years of decline in commodity housing sales area, with increasing sensitivity to policy easing [3][6] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - On May 7, the People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 percentage point policy interest rate reduction, along with a 0.25 percentage point decrease in personal housing provident fund loan rates [3][13] - The report outlines various local government initiatives aimed at supporting housing purchases, including increased subsidies for green buildings and multi-child families [3][13] High-Frequency Data - As of May 9, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 390.0 yuan/ton, showing a 1.3% decrease from the previous week but an 11.5% increase year-on-year [4][14] - The national average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1271.4 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.3% decrease from the previous week and a 24.7% decrease year-on-year [4][22] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.92%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 2.88%. The building materials sector index rose by 2.55% [5][55] - Among sub-sectors, refractory materials saw the highest increase at 7.96%, followed by other building materials at 4.44% and cement products at 4.42% [5][55] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming [6][58]

Group 1 - The central viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of recent financial policies on the Shenzhen real estate market, particularly the reduction of housing loan rates, which has led to historically low property acquisition costs [1][3][55] - The policy changes have resulted in a surge of interest in the Shenzhen housing market, with a notable example being the successful launch of the Pengchen Yunzhu project, which achieved rapid sales and high revenue during the May Day holiday [8][12][55] - The project has demonstrated strong market performance, with previous launches also seeing high demand, indicating a robust recovery in the Shenzhen real estate sector [12][14][55] Group 2 - The Pengchen Yunzhu project stands out due to its unique design and high-quality amenities, which have attracted a significant number of buyers, contributing to its success in the competitive market [17][33][55] - The project features innovative space utilization and high-end finishes, setting a new standard for residential properties in Shenzhen, which has traditionally struggled with space efficiency [33][36][55] - The combination of favorable financial policies and the product advantages of Pengchen Yunzhu creates a rare investment opportunity in a core urban area, with expectations for continued demand as new phases are launched [55][56]

5月7日，金融监管总局局长李云泽于国新办新闻发布会透露，2025年一季度房地产贷款余额增长超7500 亿元，新增个人住房贷款达2022年以来单季峰值，住房租赁贷款同比增幅28%。李云泽表示，个贷增长 反映购房需求释放，市场活跃提升；租赁贷款增势，则强化了住房金融多元支持，利于租赁市场。 每经记者｜陈利 每经编辑｜陈梦妤 ｜2025年5月8日 星期四｜ NO.1 央行下调个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜于国新办新闻发布会称，个人住房公积金贷款利率下调0.25个百分 点，五年期以上首套房利率从2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限同步调。此举预计年省居民公积金贷款利息超 200亿元，助力居民刚性住房需求与房地产市场止跌企稳。 点评：公积金利率降至历史低位，叠加多地存量贷款批量调降及首付比例优化政策，将缓解居民购房压 力，加速释放刚性需求，助力房地产市场企稳。同时，公积金与商业贷款利差缩小，可能倒逼商业银行 进一步优化房贷定价机制，推动市场良性竞争。 NO.2 今年一季度新增个人住房贷款创2022年以来单季最大增幅 点评：保交楼作为政策重点，碧桂园服务通过支持地产集团交付项目，可能 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][68] Core Viewpoints - In April, the real estate sales heat has declined, but there are expectations for stronger policies in the future. The central bank's vice governor disclosed that personal housing loans increased by 220 billion yuan in Q1, which is over 200 billion yuan more than the previous year. Various cities have introduced new housing policies to support home purchases, indicating a proactive approach to stabilize the real estate market [3][13]. - Short-term factors include the emphasis on stabilizing the real estate sector during the April Politburo meeting, the urgency to expand domestic demand and promote investment amid escalating global trade tensions, and the gradual alleviation of risks associated with major real estate companies, which is beneficial for the building materials sector [3][13]. - Long-term factors suggest that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the US may provide more room for monetary and fiscal policies in China. The Politburo meeting in September 2024 explicitly stated the need to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for policies such as lowering existing mortgage rates and transaction taxes to support demand [3][13]. Summary by Sections Recent High-frequency Data - As of April 30, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 395.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8% from last week, but a year-on-year increase of 13.0%. The average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1275.7 yuan/ton, down 0.2% from last week and down 25.2% year-on-year [4][22]. Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index remained unchanged. The building materials index dropped by 2.14%. Among sub-sectors, refractory materials increased by 1.61%, while cement manufacturing decreased by 2.25% [5][54]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. High-quality blue-chip stocks benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [6]. 2. Undervalued stocks benefiting from the alleviation of B-end credit risks, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [6]. 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [6].

国家统计局发布2025年1-3月宏观经济和房地产数据。得益于政策效应持续释放，生产供给较快增长，新质生产力加快培育，国内需求不断扩大，国民经 济实现良好开局。工业增加值、服务业、消费品零售额增长均较上年全年有所加快。 地产行业进一步企稳，商品房销售规模同比降幅持续收窄，房价下降城市数量创2023年下半年以来新低，住宅待售面积迎来环比转降。得益于中央和地方 主管部门在供给侧的有力调整，2025年一季度土地成交量仅为新房交易量的六成左右，再加之收储闲置用地和存量住房的推进，房企和购房者预期正在持 续转好。 成交规模指标持续修复 保持止跌回稳积极势头 国家统计局数据显示，3月全国新建商品房销售面积1.1亿平方米、销售额8222亿元，同比降幅均只有1%，自2024年10月份以来，单月商品房销售面积同 比降幅已经连续6个月低于5%，为2021年下半年以来首次出现，需求侧筑底企稳信号愈加明确。2025年一季度商品房成交面积同比下降3%，创近21个月 累计同比降幅新低。 CRIC数据显示，3月份，一二线城市交易规模持续同比增长，北京、广州、深圳、宁波、南京、苏州等同比增幅均超过20%。北京核心区改善盘入市带动 结构性放量， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific developers, including China Resources Land, China Overseas, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Longfor Group, due to their favorable positioning in the market [3][43]. Core Insights - The report has adjusted its forecasts for the real estate industry, predicting a delay in price stabilization for first and second-tier cities by 6-12 months, now expected around mid-2026 [1][11]. - The impact of the US-China trade tensions is anticipated to create short-term challenges for the housing market, particularly affecting the secondary market, where bid-ask spreads are expected to widen [2][13]. - Despite the downward adjustments, the report suggests that the long-term outlook for the real estate market remains positive, especially if structural reforms are prioritized [1][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Forecast Adjustments - The report has lowered the sales volume forecast for the secondary housing market by 13% for 2025-2027, with a price reduction of 2% [2]. - For the primary market, the sales volume forecast has been reduced by an average of 6% for 2025-2026, with a 2% decrease in investment predictions [2][21]. - The completion area forecast has also been adjusted downward, reflecting a trend that has not met expectations [2][21]. Developer Coverage - The core earnings per share (EPS) forecast for covered developers has been adjusted down by 4%-6% for 2025-2027, with target prices reduced by an average of 3% [2][47]. - Developers with significant land reserves in first-tier cities are expected to recover more quickly, with a focus on quality land acquisitions [3][32]. - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are expected to maintain stable contract sales growth, contrasting with a projected decline for private-owned enterprises (POEs) [47]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the average daily new home sales in export-reliant cities have dropped by approximately 30% since the tariff announcement, compared to a 25% decline in other cities [7]. - The performance divergence among cities is noted, with top-tier cities showing stronger fundamentals and population growth compared to lower-tier cities [8]. - The report emphasizes that the secondary market is likely to face more significant challenges due to deteriorating supply quality and increased competition from new homes [14][18].