Group 1 - The new South Korean government is prioritizing economic recovery and stability, focusing on urgent economic agendas such as supplementary budgets, economic policy direction, tax reforms, and next year's government budget [1][2] - The government plans to release an "economic policy direction" document earlier than usual, which will outline its economic policy philosophy, implementation paths, and forecasts for key economic indicators [1][2] - The first measure of the new government is a supplementary budget aimed at stimulating the economy, addressing domestic consumption issues, weak exports, and global inflation pressures [2][3] Group 2 - The supplementary budget is expected to be around 30 trillion KRW, significantly higher than the initial budget, and will likely focus on direct cash assistance to citizens to boost domestic consumption [3][4] - Concerns have been raised regarding the sustainability and effectiveness of cash stimulus measures, especially given the rising household debt levels in South Korea [3][4] - The coordination between fiscal and monetary policies may face challenges, as the central bank has expressed reservations about large-scale cash distribution and prefers targeted support for struggling groups [3][4] Group 3 - There are risks associated with debt expansion due to the financing of the supplementary budget through deficit bonds, which could raise government debt levels and attract scrutiny from credit rating agencies [4][5] - The potential mismatch between fiscal expansion and monetary policy could lead to ineffective policy outcomes, as the central bank may delay interest rate cuts due to inflation or financial stability concerns [4][5] - The effectiveness of the government's expansionary fiscal policy in overcoming economic challenges remains to be seen, with a focus on achieving policy coordination, efficiency, and sustainability [5]

Group 1: Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7% during the same period[7] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3%[7] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income support increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[9] Group 2: Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term fiscal risks, with a consistent deficit rate below 3% reflecting a balanced fiscal approach[11] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the macro tax burden needing stabilization as general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP fell to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points since 2013[17] - The fiscal expenditure structure requires optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support, leading to potential demand deficiencies[19] Group 3: Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Transition from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to better support economic stability[21] - Fiscal policy objectives should balance short-term economic stability with long-term systemic challenges, addressing issues like population aging and digital economy risks[23] - Shift focus from income policies to expenditure policies, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal measures[28]

Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7%[5] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3% during the same period[5] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income standards increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[7] Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term economic risks, with the deficit rate rarely exceeding 3%[9] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP dropping to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points from 2013[13] - The fiscal expenditure structure needs optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support[14] Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Shift from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to stimulate economic growth[16] - Enhance the focus on long-term challenges such as population aging and digital economy risks, ensuring fiscal policy addresses both short-term stability and long-term sustainability[18] - Transition from income policies to expenditure policies, emphasizing efficiency and effectiveness in fiscal measures[22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the easing of US-China trade tensions has led traders to retract their bets on aggressive monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with current market pricing suggesting only three rate cuts for the remainder of the year [1][4] - Previously, traders anticipated that if demand for Australian products from China declined or a global economic recession occurred, the RBA would be forced to implement significant rate cuts [4] - The reduction in bets on RBA rate cuts reflects the cautious approach taken by RBA Governor Michele Bullock in response to the uncertainty created by the Trump administration's tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - Economists expect that the upcoming data will show Australia's unemployment rate remaining at 4.1% for April, and a recent report indicated that core inflation has fallen within the RBA's target range for the first time in over three years [4] - The expansionary fiscal policy in Australia is another reason investors believe the RBA's easing cycle may be shallow, with expectations of a more expansionary stance under a Labor-majority government [4] - Some economists still believe that the uncertainty stemming from Trump’s policies may lead the RBA to consider deeper rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting a potential reduction of the cash rate to 3.1% by the end of the year [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for extraordinary macroeconomic policies, particularly expansionary fiscal policies, to achieve the 5% growth target, suggesting a new large-scale stimulus plan similar to the previous "4 trillion" initiative [1] - The implementation of a new "4 trillion" investment stimulus policy raises questions about its effectiveness and whether it can address current economic challenges and ensure the targeted growth rate [3][5] - Critics argue that the previous "4 trillion" policy led to rapid increases in housing prices and local government debt, which now limit the effectiveness of government stimulus measures [5][6] Group 2 - The current focus should be on effective investment and consumer spending rather than solely on infrastructure investment, as consumer confidence and purchasing power are crucial for economic stability [6][8] - A proposed solution includes distributing 5 trillion yuan in consumption vouchers, particularly targeting low- and middle-income groups to stimulate direct consumption and market activity [8] - The past experience with the "4 trillion" stimulus should serve as a lesson rather than a model, indicating that without addressing consumer confidence, further investment may not yield positive results [8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government revised the previous year's deficit from HKD 87.2 billion to approximately HKD 80.3 billion, mainly due to increased stock stamp duty and lower-than-expected departmental spending [1] - The budget proposal includes an increase in passenger departure tax, which has sparked controversy; however, the government believes the impact on overall travel costs for passengers will be minimal [1] - The government aims to maintain fiscal stability and is confident that it will return to surplus by the fiscal year 2028/29, despite current deficits [1] Group 2 - The U.S. tariff announcements in early April caused significant fluctuations in the global financial markets, but Hong Kong's stock market remained orderly and stable under the linked exchange rate system [2] - The government is focusing on maintaining its status as a zero-tariff free port to attract more trade and business activities, despite uncertainties in the international economic landscape [2] - The recent increase in the property value cap for stamp duty has led to improved market sentiment and slightly slowed the decline in property prices, although external factors continue to impact the market [2]

韩国政府日前召开临时国务会议，审议通过了旨在助力民生经济发展的补充预算案，规模达12.2万亿韩 元（1美元约合1422韩元）。其中，用于增强贸易和人工智能竞争力的补充预算为4.4万亿韩元；用于支 援个体工商户和弱势群体的补充预算为4.3万亿韩元。韩国政府预计，补充预算将拉动经济增长约0.1个 百分点。 韩国中央银行韩国银行在最新发布的经济状况评价报告中表示，尽管就业人数有所增加，但韩国经济整 体面临内需和出口双双放缓、经济增长势头弱于预期的现状，预计今年第一季度的经济增长率低于2月 份的预测值0.2%。 韩国统计厅4月初公布的数据显示，韩国3月份消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.1%，连续3个月保持 2%以上的增速。主要上涨商品包括泡菜（15.3%）、咖啡（8.3%）、面包（6.3%）及火腿和培根 （6.0%）等。日前，韩国最大的炒年糕自助连锁店Dookki宣布将于5月份上调自助餐价格，成年人由 10900韩元上调至11900韩元，青少年由9900韩元上调至10900韩元。首尔交通公社也宣布将于6月份上调 地铁基础票价，从目前的1400韩元上调至1550韩元。韩国SBS电视台报道说，从"国民小吃"炒年糕到公 ...

经济学家：美国关税并未重创德国制造业 金十数据4月23日讯，汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia表示，今天的德国PMI数据表明，德 国以出口为导向的增长模式正面临一些严峻挑战，但美国的关税政策尚未对制造业造成重大冲击。事实 上，制造商们连续第二个月实现了产量增长，甚至略有提升。在订单方面，自2022年初以来，我们还未 见过如此情况。这相当令人瞩目，这或许得益于有望达成的一些妥协，其中包括德国多元化的出口目的 地——90%的出口产品销往美国以外的国家。当然，目前仍存在一些不确定性，人们对未来产出的乐观 情绪受到了一定打击。服务提供商的日子并不好过。业务活动有所下降，对未来业务的乐观情绪受挫。 尽管如此，就业的持续增长以及新业务出现的一些企稳迹象表明，企业远未放弃努力。随着预期的扩张 性财政政策出台，服务提供商应能从经济发展中受益。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of long-term special government bonds in China, amounting to 1.3 trillion yuan, is aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, thereby strengthening the domestic economic cycle [2][3]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - This year, China will issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special government bonds, an increase of 300 billion yuan compared to last year [2]. - The first issuance will focus on 20-year and 30-year bonds, starting on April 24 [2]. - Of the total, 800 billion yuan will support "two major" projects, while 500 billion yuan will be allocated to expand the "two new" policies [2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The early disclosure of bond issuance plans and rapid financing is intended to enhance expectations for economic improvement and stimulate consumption [2]. - In the first quarter, supported by the "two new" and "two major" policies, related consumer goods experienced double-digit growth, indicating progress in expanding domestic demand [2]. Group 3: Role of Government Bonds - Long-term special government bonds will enable more fiscal funds to promote consumption and expand domestic demand, converting private savings into effective demand to support economic growth [3]. - These bonds will also provide greater support for technological innovation and industrial development in "two major" construction projects, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development [3]. Group 4: Market Implications - The issuance of long-term special government bonds will increase the supply of safe assets in the market, alleviating the "asset shortage" issue in a low-interest-rate environment [3]. - China's government bonds, as high-grade securities, have the potential to become significant global safe assets, attracting international investors [3]. - As of April 15, foreign institutions have increased their holdings of Chinese bonds by over 270 billion yuan, reflecting a positive attitude towards the Chinese bond market [3].