据韩联社1月30日报道，在紧急戒严事件余波持续影响下，去年韩国整体经济动能明显放缓，产业生产 增幅降至近5年来最低水平。尽管半导体和造船等主力出口产业持续景气，成为拉动工业生产的主要动 力，但建筑业受投资萎缩影响大幅下滑，拖累整体表现。新政府成立后着力稳定局势，并通过发放民生 消费券等扩张性财政政策刺激内需，使全年零售销售额在连续三年负增长后，时隔4年首次转为正增 长，尤其第三季度增长尤为明显。全年全产业生产指数同比仅增长0.5%，明显低于前一年。服务业和 设备投资温和回升，但建筑投资创下历史最大跌幅，行业间复苏程度分化明显。 ...

新党"中道改革联合"主张坚持无核三原则,推行务实的外交与防卫政策。日媒披露,高市正企图在修订 《国家安全保障战略》等"安保三文件"时,修改无核三原则中的不引进核武器原则,引发日本国内强烈担 忧。"中道改革联合"的这一主张,直指高市政权引发最大争议的"爆点"。 日本首相高市早苗23日宣布解散众议院,定于2月8日举行大选。高市表示,若自民党与日本维新会组成的 执政联盟未赢得过半数议席,她将辞去首相职务。分析人士认为,高市这场"豪赌"的主要目的是想借当前 较高支持率重新成为多数派执政党,彻底摆脱在野党在国会的掣肘。表面来看,高市的胜算很大,但立宪民 主党与公明党组建新党"中道改革联合"投入选战,无疑会搅乱既有格局,为选举带来很大变数。 主笔 赵世峰 在野党针锋相对 23日原本是日本国会例会开幕的日子。按照惯例,国会例会的一项重要议程是在4月1日新财年开始前审 议并通过预算案。高市此时解散众议院,审议预算案的正常程序将被大幅拖延,给日本政治和民生带来不 确定性,引发在野党和部分媒体批评,指责其"只顾党派私利、滥用解散权"。就连极右翼的参政党干事长 安藤裕也表示,"此时解散(众议院)极为罕见,政府无视预算与经济风险的做 ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本央行维持基准利率不变，并上调了通胀预期，以密切关注上月加息的影响，并等待可能影响财政支出计划的提前选举结果。 日本央行周五发表声明称，维持政策利率不变，仍为0.75%，与所有受访经济学家的预测一致。这意味着借贷成本处于三十年来的最高水平。理事会 成员高田创投票支持再次加息，而其他理事则支持维持利率不变。 该央行在其最新的季度展望中上调了六项通胀预测中的四项，并重申了如果其展望成为现实，将提高借贷成本的意图。该央行目前预计，从 4 月开始 的财政年度，不计入新鲜食品的核心通胀率平均为 2.2%，高于此前 2% 的预期。 | % | 2025财年 | 2026财年 | 2027财年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 不含生鲜食品的消费者物价指数 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | | 剔除生鲜食品和能源后的消费者物价指数 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | | 实际GDP | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | | 注:中位数预测值 | | | | 当天早些时候发布的一份报告显示，受政府部分过去和现在补贴计划的影响，剔除生鲜食品价格后的12月核心CPI同比 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin attributes the rise in U.S. bond yields to issues in Japan rather than the tariffs imposed on European countries related to Greenland, suggesting limited impact from the tariffs on the U.S. market [1] - Mnuchin stated that he is in communication with Japanese economic officials and believes Japan will commit to stabilizing its market, indicating a close relationship between U.S. and Japanese market reactions [1] - Japanese media expressed dissatisfaction with Mnuchin's comments, arguing that the turmoil caused by President Trump's interest in Greenland is the primary reason for the rise in U.S. long-term bond yields [1] Group 2 - Japan's Finance Minister Katayama announced on January 20 that measures have been taken to stabilize the market, assuring that these measures will continue [1] - Following the election announcement by Prime Minister Kishi, concerns have grown regarding expansionary fiscal policies leading to increased fiscal deficits and worsening Japan's financial situation, contributing to a rapid depreciation of the yen and a significant rise in Japanese bond yields [1] - On January 20, Japan's 10-year bond yield rose to 2.38%, marking a record high since 1999, amid ongoing sell-offs in the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is expected to continue depreciating due to concerns over the expansionary fiscal policies of the government led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the persistently low real interest rates in Japan [2][4]. Group 1: Currency Predictions - In a recent survey conducted by QUICK and Nikkei Veritas, 40% of respondents predicted the yen would be the weakest currency among eight major currencies by 2026 [2][4]. - The survey included 173 participants from Japanese financial institutions and companies, with 64 valid responses collected [4]. - The dollar was predicted to be the second weakest currency, with 36% of respondents selecting it, citing factors such as ongoing interest rate cuts and political uncertainties [4][5]. Group 2: Current Exchange Rates - As of January 14, the exchange rate for the yen against the dollar fell to approximately 159.5 yen per dollar, marking the lowest level in about a year and a half [4]. - The yen also depreciated against the euro, reaching an exchange rate of 185.5 yen per euro, the lowest since the euro's inception in 1999 [4]. Group 3: Future Currency Strength - For the strongest currency prediction, the euro ranked first, followed by the Swiss franc, while the Swiss franc was predicted to be the strongest currency in the 2025 survey [5].

Group 1 - The core argument presented is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin refuted claims that the U.S. market downturn was primarily due to tariffs imposed on European countries over Greenland, attributing the rise in U.S. Treasury yields to issues in Japan instead [1][3] - Mnuchin emphasized that the U.S. market's reaction cannot be separated from developments in Japan, where there has been a significant surge in Japanese government bond yields [3] - The Japanese media expressed dissatisfaction with Mnuchin's comments, suggesting that the turmoil caused by President Trump's interest in Greenland is the main reason for the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [3] Group 2 - Japanese Finance Minister Katayama stated that measures have been taken to stabilize the market and assured that these measures will continue [3] - Concerns have arisen regarding the expansionary fiscal policies proposed by Japan's new Prime Minister, which are believed to exacerbate fiscal deficits and worsen the government's financial situation [3] - Following the announcement of early elections in Japan, the trend of rising bond yields intensified, with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reaching 2.38%, a record high since 1999 [3][4]

Ales Koutny曾是押注长期日本国债的外国投资者之一，预期日本央行进一步加息将压平收益率曲线， 并推动对长期债券的需求上升。尽管在高市早苗去年10月上台后、日本国债收益率持续攀升的背景下， 仍有不少投资者继续买入，但近期日本国债收益率的再度跳升以及波动率的上行，正在考验投资者的风 险承受能力。 智通财经获悉，此前一直是日本政府债券最坚定多头之一的Vanguard Asset Management Ltd.，在今年 年初暂停了对日本长期国债的持续买入。在日本首相高市早苗决定提前解散众议院、主张大幅减税从而 引发日本债市剧烈震荡之前，这家资产管理公司就已退出了相关押注。Vanguard主动型基金国际利率主 管Ales Koutny表示："这对长期日本国债来说堪称一场完美风暴。一个国家的无资金支持财政支出是有 限度的。" 当然，并非所有基金经理都被近期的市场动荡吓退。安联全球投资(Allianz Global Investors)高级投资组 合经理Ranjiv Mann周二表示，他正在"积极讨论日本国债中的潜在机会"。上周，太平洋投资管理公司 (PIMCO)的Andrew Balls也认为，市场波动中存在机会 ...

智通财经APP获悉，此前一直是日本政府债券最坚定多头之一的Vanguard Asset Management Ltd.，在 今年年初暂停了对日本长期国债的持续买入。在日本首相高市早苗决定提前解散众议院、主张大幅减税 从而引发日本债市剧烈震荡之前，这家资产管理公司就已退出了相关押注。Vanguard主动型基金国际利 率主管Ales Koutny表示："这对长期日本国债来说堪称一场完美风暴。一个国家的无资金支持财政支出 是有限度的。" Ales Koutny曾是押注长期日本国债的外国投资者之一，预期日本央行进一步加息将压平收益率曲线， 并推动对长期债券的需求上升。尽管在高市早苗去年10月上台后、日本国债收益率持续攀升的背景下， 仍有不少投资者继续买入，但近期日本国债收益率的再度跳升以及波动率的上行，正在考验投资者的风 险承受能力。 Ales Koutny指出，周二20年期日本国债拍卖需求疲弱，再加上一份报告显示日本寿险公司正在抛售长 期债券，以及围绕进一步财政支出的各种"噪音"，共同推动30年期国债收益率大幅上行。 真正令投资者感到不安的是，高市早苗承诺将暂时下调食品消费税，以巩固其在众议院的微弱多数席 位。这一 ...

高市早苗一直是扩张性财政政策的支持者。据日本财务省公布的文件，高市早苗内阁提出的2026财年预 算规模达122.3万亿日元，远超2025财年的115.2万亿日元。其中，仅国债费就高达31.3万亿日元。然 而，日本政府债务余额占国内生产总值比重已达240%。高市内阁推行扩张性财政政策、大肆发债，令 投资者对日本财政状况恶化的忧虑不断加深。"日本债券市场目前处于无人买入但抛售不止的状态。"彭 博社援引基金行业人士的话报道称。 多家日本媒体报道称，削减消费税已经成为此次选举的一个焦点，因为执政党和反对党都试图通过减轻 不断上升的生活成本负担措施来赢得选民。不过，日本央行19日发布的2025年12月生活意识问卷调查结 果显示，认为一年后的物价较现在"将上涨"的受访者占比为86.0%，仍然处于高位。 有分析认为，日本国债收益率上行不仅源于财政政策的不确定性，还叠加了通胀与货币政策预期的影 响。《日经亚洲评论》报道提到，日本核心通胀率在2025年11月仍维持在3.0%，经通胀调整后的实际 工资已连续11个月处于负增长区间。在生活成本压力持续存在的背景下，主要政党在选举前竞相讨论减 税与扩大财政支出，加剧了市场对财政可持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 2.330%, the highest since February 1999, is primarily driven by concerns over fiscal discipline, expectations of a shift in monetary policy, and inflationary pressures alongside yen depreciation [1][3][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Bond Yield Increase - Fiscal discipline loosening is a key trigger for the bond sell-off, as political parties propose tax cuts ahead of elections, raising fears of reduced fiscal revenue and increased deficits [3][6]. - Expectations of a shift in monetary policy are influencing the market, with the Bank of Japan signaling potential interest rate hikes in 2026, which is pushing bond yields higher [3][6]. - Inflation and yen depreciation pressures are exacerbating the situation, as rising import costs lead investors to demand higher yields on long-term bonds [3][6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment on Government Policies - The market's reaction reflects skepticism towards Prime Minister Kishi's aggressive fiscal policies, which include tax cuts and increased defense spending, potentially worsening Japan's already high public debt, exceeding 260% of GDP [6][9]. - The upcoming elections may solidify Kishi's position but could also lead to more unrestrained fiscal policies, raising concerns about Japan's long-term debt sustainability [6][9]. Group 3: Impact on Economy and Society - The bond sell-off is causing a domino effect on the economy, leading to increased costs for essential goods and services, thereby reducing the purchasing power of Japanese households [8][9]. - Rising interest rates are increasing the financial burden on households with fixed-rate mortgages, significantly impacting their financial stability [8][9]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises may face higher financing costs, potentially leading to layoffs and stagnation in income growth, further shrinking domestic demand [9][10]. Group 4: Central Bank's Dilemma - The Bank of Japan faces a challenging situation of needing to combat inflation while stabilizing the market, with potential measures including unlimited bond purchases and delaying asset reduction plans [10]. - Any intervention by the Bank of Japan may be perceived as monetizing fiscal deficits, which could lead to further depreciation of the yen [10]. - Without clear signals of fiscal discipline from the government, the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's measures may be limited, merely postponing market reassessment of Japan's risks [10].