Export Data Analysis - In May, China's export amount decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 6.2% and previous value of 8.1%[4] - Exports to the United States saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 34.5%[5] - The combined export growth to ASEAN and Latin America was only 2.9%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points from the previous month[5] Import Data Insights - Imports fell by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly lower than the market expectation of a 0.3% increase[7] - The decline in imports reflects ongoing challenges in domestic demand recovery, as indicated by the worsening impact on consumer prices[6] Market Dynamics - The slowdown in U.S. import demand has negatively affected China's export momentum, particularly to ASEAN and Latin America[5] - The global manufacturing new orders index dropped to 49.1%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[5] Structural Changes in Exports - There is a noticeable structural differentiation in export categories, with mechanical and high-tech products experiencing a continuous slowdown in growth rates[6] - Specific categories like integrated circuits have temporarily benefited from tariff exemptions, showing resilience amidst broader declines[6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes discuss the Chinese economy, specifically focusing on manufacturing and export trends amid ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. and the EU [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - **Manufacturing PMI**: In May, the manufacturing PMI in China was reported at 49.5%, showing a seasonal rebound of 0.5 points. However, it remains in the contraction zone, indicating ongoing economic challenges [1]. - **Service Sector PMI**: The service sector PMI is below seasonal levels, suggesting weakness in this area as well [1]. - **Export Trends**: High-frequency data indicates a significant improvement in China's exports to the U.S. in May, with expectations of maintaining a growth rate of around 5%, despite April's growth being at 8.1% [2]. - **Tariff Negotiations**: The notes highlight the importance of ongoing tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China, as well as between the U.S. and the EU. Recent comments from Trump regarding tariffs have escalated concerns [2]. - **Economic Growth Projections**: There is an expectation that the easing of tariffs could alleviate economic pressure in the second quarter, with GDP growth projected to reach around 5% [2]. - **Policy Recommendations**: The notes suggest that the government should not delay policy interventions, as the economic situation remains fragile. More proactive measures, including potential budget increases, are anticipated in the second half of the year [2]. Additional Important Content - **Domestic Demand Issues**: The notes indicate that there are significant concerns regarding insufficient domestic demand, as evidenced by declining price data and weakened second-hand housing sales [1]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The analysis suggests that adjustments in asset prices, particularly in A-shares, interest rate bonds, and gold, may present investment opportunities [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the current state of the Chinese economy, export dynamics, and the implications of tariff negotiations.

Domestic Demand - New housing sales growth is improving, while second-hand housing and passenger car sales are declining; home appliance average sales prices show mixed trends with more increases than decreases year-on-year [1][8] - Service consumption shows divergence, with movie box office improving and hotel revenue per available room declining but showing year-on-year growth [1][8] External Demand - Export indicators such as container throughput and departing ship weights have decreased, suggesting a potential decline in export growth due to high base effects from the previous year [3] - Container booking volumes from China to U.S. ports continue to rise year-on-year, while traditional transshipment trade areas see a significant drop, indicating a shift from transshipment to direct exports [4] - The U.S. International Trade Court has temporarily allowed tariffs to continue, with the final ruling still pending, necessitating close monitoring of developments [5] Production - Downstream demand remains weak, with speculative demand in the chemical chain decreasing and related product prices falling; steel procurement enthusiasm is low, leading to a decline in steel prices [6] - Employment indices remain stable, with a slight increase in employment price indices, while job search and recruitment-related search indices show a downward trend [6] Prices - Gold and oil prices have retreated, while copper remains in a fluctuating range; domestic chemical products and steel prices continue to decline [7] - Market expectations of OPEC+ accelerating oil production have pressured international oil prices, while geopolitical tensions provide some support for oil prices; gold remains in a fluctuating range but is expected to trend upward in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and global instability [7]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 12 日 4 月外贸数据点评："抢转口"为出口提供韧性 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 沈夏宜 分析师 证书:S1320524100001 证书:S1320523020004 Email:weizheng@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 2025.05.08 投资要点： 4 月出口仍具韧性。以美元计价，4 月出口增速 8.1%，高于一季度出口增 速 6.4%，远超万得一致预期增速 0.8%。出口仍然具备韧性，主要源于 "抢转口"对出口的支撑。环比上看，4 月出口环比增速 0.6%，高于季 节性，同时，考虑到 3 月份抢出口冲量，4 月环比增速仍具韧性，指向出 口动能仍存。 分地区看，对美出口降温，对加拿大、东盟、拉美地区出口大幅提升。新 兴经济体方面，4 月，我国对东盟出口增速较上月几乎翻倍，其中，对越 南出口增速高达 22.5%。对印度出口增速 21.7%。我国对拉丁美洲出口增 速提升明显。发达经济体方面，对美国出口降温。同时，对加拿大、欧盟 出口提升。数据上看，4 月份出口"抢转口"迹象明显：中国对东盟、欧 ...

4月中国出口（以美元计价）同比增长8.1%，表现出明显的"抢转口"特征。 抢转口、抢出海下，出口压力在6月之后。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 随着在途商品豁免期结束，在高额关税下，中国对美直接贸易快速下滑。 4月对美出口同比增速从9.1%快速下滑至-21%，拖累中国出口增速3个百分 点。预计5月中国对美出口将进一步回落。 4月中国对非美出口增速显著上行。 4月中国对东盟出口增长20.8%，前值11.6%，拉动中国出口增速3.6个百分点。4月中国对越南出口增长23%，越 南对美国出口增长34%，越南对中国的进口额和对美国的出口额均创下2020年以来的新高，中国借道越南转口可能明显上升。 按照美国豁免清单9903.01.25，在美东时间4月9日凌晨12时之前装船运输的商品可以申请10%的附加关税，而不用面临对等关税，在这样的情况下， 部分对美直接出口商品在4月初加速出货。 除越南外，4月中国对 非洲、德国、印度、拉丁美洲、中国台湾省 等地区的出口增速均维持两位数以上高增。对德国、荷兰、澳大利亚出口增速比3月上 升了8.8、8、10.3个百分点。 4月已公布重点商品中，出口增速最高的是中间品和资本品， 分别为 ...

Export Data Analysis - In April 2025, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.0% and previous value of 12.4%[3] - Exports to ASEAN rose significantly by 9.2 percentage points to 20.8%, contributing nearly half to total exports[3] - Exports of integrated circuits surged by 12.3% year-on-year to 20.2%, benefiting from tariff exemption policies[4] Import Data Insights - Imports in April 2025 decreased slightly by 0.2%, outperforming the expected decline of 6.0%[3] - Imports from Hong Kong increased by 41.3% year-on-year, highlighting its role as a key import hub[5] - For the first time in seven months, imports from Latin America turned positive, indicating a shift in trade patterns[5] Trade Tensions and Future Outlook - Exports to the U.S. plummeted by 21% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of high tariffs and trade tensions[4] - The global manufacturing PMI fell back into contraction territory, indicating a slowdown in global trade activity[4] - Three scenarios for future export trends were outlined, with a potential decline of 4.3% if current tariffs remain unchanged[7]

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in April recorded a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, which is a decline of over 4 percentage points from March but higher than market expectations, indicating strong export resilience [1][2] Export Performance - The decline in export growth is attributed to a decrease in quantity contribution while price drag has narrowed [4] - Exports to transshipment countries and neighboring regions showed higher growth rates, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while direct exports to the US saw a significant drop [6][8] Factors Contributing to Export Resilience - The resilience in exports is primarily driven by transshipment activities and tariff exemptions on certain goods from the US, with over 20% of Chinese goods exempted from export tariffs, particularly in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - Despite a notable decline in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other transshipment countries have increased significantly, indicating a substantial counterbalance from transshipment activities [6] Future Export Trends - The outlook for exports suggests a potential overall decline, with expectations of reaching a low point by mid-year due to the impact of US inflation and economic slowdown [14] - Even with a downward trend in exports, the corresponding demand for imported components may also decrease, leading to a slower reduction in trade surplus and less drag on economic growth [14] Import Performance - In April, China's import growth was recorded at -0.2%, which is an increase of over 4 percentage points from March, indicating significant improvement in imports [10] - The increase in imports is attributed to improved domestic consumption and a phenomenon of "panic buying" due to retaliatory tariffs from the US [10][12] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in April was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from March, reflecting the overall trends in exports and imports [14]

"抢转口"适度支撑二季度出口，但美国需求下滑叠加透支效应，三季度出口承压更显 著。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人孙永乐 自 2024 年 11 月特朗普胜选后，美国企业便开始了"抢进口" ： 24 年 12 月，美国进口增速升至 12.8% ； 2025 年 1-2 月，美国进口增速突 破了 20% ，创下近年来新高。 分商品看，除汽车、零部件和发动机外（可能与年初美国汽车零售增速转负，需求不足有关），美国消费品、资本品、中间品的进口增速均明显上 行。其中， 2025 年 1-2 月， 工业用品和材料 的进口增速超过了 60% ，消费品的进口增速达到了 26.3% 。 细分商品来看（ SITC 二级口径），美国"抢进口"力度最大的是 杂项制品 ，包括玩具、游戏及运动用品、文具、印刷品、工艺品、装饰品等劳动 密集型制成品和日常消费品， 2024 年 12 月 -2025 年 2 月杂项制品的进口增长了 185.9% ，占美国进口金额比例从去年同期的 5% 提高到了 11.9% ，进口额达 1056 亿美元。 杂项制品进口大幅走高，一方面与相关商品的对外依赖度较高有关，比如美国玩具进口额占全球总进口额的 30% ， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in Trump's tariff policy as of April 9, moving from comprehensive retaliatory tariffs on trade deficit countries to using tariffs as leverage in negotiations, particularly with economies outside of China. This shift has created an opportunity for "transshipment" to mitigate the impact of tariffs on exports [1][2]. Group 1: Export Dynamics - The export landscape in Q2 presents a duality; while high tariffs have brought China and the U.S. close to "untradeable" status, a 90-day tariff suspension provides a buffer for domestic exports [1][2]. - The cumulative new tariffs have reached 145%, with some Chinese goods facing tariffs as high as 245%, leading to a potential 14.6% year-on-year decline in Chinese exports if the U.S. market is lost [2][5]. - The container shipping rates from China to the U.S. East Coast have dropped to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating weakened export signals [2]. Group 2: Counteracting Forces - Two main counteracting forces are expected to support exports in Q2: the 90-day tariff suspension and a $100 billion list of tariff exemptions, which could collectively boost exports by approximately 5 percentage points [5][9]. - Demand for "transshipment" to the EU and ASEAN has already been reflected in March data, with exports to these regions exceeding seasonal levels by 9.7% and 8.9% respectively [5][9]. - The U.S. importers are showing signs of preemptive stocking due to tariff concerns, as evidenced by a record high in container imports at the Port of Los Angeles [7]. Group 3: Tariff Exemptions - The recent tariff exemptions, particularly those affecting around $100 billion worth of products, are expected to increase overall exports by 2.8 percentage points in Q2 [9][12]. - The exemption list includes several electronic products, which may facilitate "transshipment" and is already reflected in the export trends from South Korea [12].