2025-12-22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 长江期货粕类油脂周报 01 02 油脂：报告及基本面偏空，豆棕油比菜油 更弱 豆粕 ：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 目 录 豆粕：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 01 01 豆粕：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止12月19日，华东现货报价3010元/吨，周度下跌60元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2735元/吨，周度下跌35元/吨；基差报价05+280元/ 吨。周度美豆受国内买船尾声及出口销售压力影响，呈现下跌趋势；连盘近月01合约供需持续宽松影响高位回落，但成本支撑下3000元/吨附 近支撑较强；05合约受南美天气良好，丰产预期下价格走势偏弱，整体连盘维持近强远弱格局。 ◆ 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落，供需 格局略微收紧。全球2025/26年度产量达 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market lacks a bullish foundation due to expected high South American yields, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, trading in the range of 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - Bearish factors include potential weakening support for biodiesel blending policies from the Trump administration after China's soybean purchases, improved rainfall in Brazil as the rainy season returns and the sowing season nears completion, and an expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season [5]. - Bullish factors are China's expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by February 2026 and over 25 million tons annually for the next three years, initial signs of drought in Argentina, and the possibility of South American soybean production cuts due to La Niña weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans declined, closing at 1049.25 cents per bushel, a drop of 27.5 cents per bushel. Concerns about US soybean demand arose as China's 12 - million - ton purchase commitment is now expected to be fulfilled by the end of February 2026 instead of the end of 2025. Additionally, the sowing speed of South American soybeans has accelerated, and the full return of the rainy season in Brazil has alleviated concerns, with the current drought in Argentina having limited impact. Next week's key points to watch are China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main producing areas, and progress on biodiesel policies [8][10]. - The price of US soybean meal fell this week, closing at $297.6 per short ton, a decrease of $4.9 per short ton. The delay in China's purchase commitment from the end of 2025 to the end of February 2026 has put pressure on the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal [11]. - The price of US soybean oil declined slightly this week, closing at 47.9 cents per pound, a drop of 2.17 cents per pound. Market concerns about slowing export demand for US soybeans and soybean oil, the postponed announcement of biodiesel blending targets, and the decline in crude oil prices driving down palm oil and soybean oil prices contributed to this drop [13]. - As of December 12, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.5 per bushel, a weekly decrease of $0.31 [16]. - On December 19, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil, dropped to 116.36 Brazilian reals per bag, while the spot price at Brazilian ports rose to 142.94 Brazilian reals per bag [20][22]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained stable, with a drought rate of 68%, up from 65% last week [25]. - In Brazil, except for the southern region, precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks. In Mato Grosso, rainfall is expected to be normal in the coming week but low in the second week. In Paraná, precipitation will be low in the next two weeks, while in Rio Grande do Sul, precipitation will be high. In Argentina, precipitation in the main producing areas will be slightly above normal in the next two weeks (the southern drought - affected areas have limited planting), and temperatures will be basically normal [27][32][35][36][38][41]. - As of the week ending December 13, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was 94.1%, up from 90.3% last week and compared to 96.8% in the same period last year [43]. Demand Factors - As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, down from $2.45 last week [46]. - On November 28, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 803,500 tons, up from 763,400 tons last week. On December 12, the weekly export inspection volume was 795,600 tons, down from 1.025 million tons last week. The net sales for this year were 1.106 million tons, down from 2.32 million tons last week (in the week of November 28). The net sales for next year were 0 tons, the same as last week. The quantity shipped to China in the week of December 12 was 202,000 tons, up from 119,800 tons last week [48][50][52][54][56]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 1.163, remaining in the La Niña range [59]. - The cost of soybean production in Brazil is expected to rise next year. The planting costs of soybeans in both Brazil and the US are expected to increase slightly. The US soybean planting cost continues to rise, while the cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased year - on - year [61][63][65][66]. - As of December 9, the net long position in soybeans was 211,600 contracts, down from 249,200 contracts last week. The net short position in soybean oil was 10,300 contracts, up from 1,900 contracts last week. The net long position in soybean meal was 22,700 contracts, down from 51,200 contracts last week [67][69][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US soybeans have no basis for a bull market due to the expected high - yield in South America, but the downside space is limited as demand is expected to improve. Overall, the price will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 1000 to 1200 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the continuous closing price of US soybeans was 1076.75 cents per bushel, a decrease of 28.5 cents per bushel. The reasons are that China will complete the 1200 - million - ton procurement commitment by the end of February 2026 instead of the end of 2025, and the sowing speed of South American soybeans has accelerated. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [7] - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at 302.5 dollars per short ton, a decrease of 2.2 dollars per short ton, pressured by the postponed procurement time of China [10] - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated slightly and closed at 50.07 cents per pound, a decrease of 1.29 cents per pound. The market is worried about the slowdown of US soybean and soybean oil export demand, and the bearish Malaysian monthly report and Argentina's reduction of soybean oil export tariffs also put pressure on the oil [13] - **Regional Prices**: As of December 5, the price of US Gulf soybeans was 11.81 dollars per bushel, a weekly decrease of 0.21; the price of Iowa soybeans was 10.33 dollars per bushel, a weekly decrease of 0.15. On December 12, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 117.66 reais per bag, while the spot price at Brazilian ports fell to 141.31 reais per bag [16][18][20] 2. Supply Factors - **US Drought**: The drought rate in US soybean - producing areas remained at 65%, compared with 64% last week [25] - **South American Weather**: Brazil's main soybean - producing areas will have good precipitation in the next two weeks. Mato Grosso's rainy season has returned, and precipitation will be more than the same period. The precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul is slightly less than normal, with no sign of continuous drought. Argentina's precipitation will be less than the same period in the next two weeks [27][33][35] - **Brazilian Sowing Progress**: As of the week of December 5, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans was 90.3%, compared with 86% last week and 94.1% last year [41] 3. Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of December 5, the pressing profit of US soybeans was 2.45 dollars per bushel, compared with 2.5 dollars per bushel last week [44] - **Export Data**: On October 31, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.0284 million tons, compared with 1.3881 million tons last week; on November 28, the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 0.9201 million tons, compared with 0.8087 million tons last week. The net sales this year were 1.2484 million tons, compared with 1.4497 million tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons. In the week of December 5, the quantity shipped to China was 0.1198 million tons, compared with 0 tons last week [46][48][50] 4. Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 1.103, remaining in the La Nina range [57] - **Planting Cost**: The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [59][61] - **CFTC Positions**: As of November 18, the net long position of soybeans was 259,400 lots, compared with 229,900 lots last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 2,300 lots, compared with 20,100 lots last week; the net long position of soybean meal was 63,400 lots, compared with 35,000 lots last week [65][67][69]

产业服务总部 饲料养殖中心 豆粕年报：底部支撑渐显，波动中寻机遇 观点总结 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美 2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全 球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落， 供需格局略微收紧。全球 2025/26 年度产量达 4.22 亿吨，同比减少 539 万吨，其中巴西大豆产量 1.75 亿吨、美国大豆产量 1.16 亿吨、阿根廷 大豆产量 4850 万吨，产量增幅主要来自于巴西，美国及阿根廷大豆产 量同比减少；国内进口来看，2025/26 年度中国大豆进口量 1.12 亿吨， 同比增加 400 万吨，其中预计 2500 万吨来自美国。不过 12-1 全球面 临拉尼娜天气影响，天气炒作仍存，因此南美产量变化幅度决定供需收 紧幅度。 需求端：2026 年预计国内生猪、禽类存栏依旧高位，支撑饲料需 求。但整体存栏量预计同比 2025 年度小幅下滑；配方来看，受豆粕性 价比提升以及豆粕价格偏低影响，豆粕添加比例同比提高。高存栏以及 高性价比下支撑豆粕需求，预计 2026 年度豆粕需求维持在 8500 万吨 以上，对应大豆量在 1 亿吨以上。 成本端：巴西 2025/26 年度 ...

2025年12月第4周，共计19个工作日，巴西累计装出豆粕180.38万吨，去年12月为174.83万吨。日均装运量为9.49万吨/日，较去年12月的9.2万吨/ 日增加3.17%。 12月5日：全国主要油厂豆粕成交总量17.12万吨，较前一交易日增8.57万吨，其中现货成交4.12万吨。 巴西全国谷物出口商协会(ANEC)表示，巴西12月大豆出口量料为281万吨，去年同期为147万吨。巴西12月豆粕出口量料为133万吨，去年同期为 217万吨。 消息面 机构观点 宁证期货： 国内连粕市场表现偏弱，一方面受到美豆技术性反弹带动有限，另一方面也反映了市场对于远期国内供需的谨慎预期。市场已开始交易换月逻 辑，主力合约换至M05。国内养殖行业疲软，生猪及禽类行业多处亏损状态，或打击养殖补栏积极性限制豆粕需求增长空间。短期豆粕价格向下 阻力明显，但上行仍缺乏足够驱动，短期预计M05维持震荡偏弱运行。后续重点关注抛储政策、巴西大豆进口消息以及美豆成本支撑。 国投安信期货： 关注周三(10日)凌晨发布的12月USDA全球农产品供需报告。路透方面已公布对本期报告期末库存的数据预测，其中美国2025/26年度大豆期末库 存为 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the market lacks the basis for a bull market due to the expected bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited due to the potential improvement in demand. The market is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend, ranging from 1000 to 1200 cents per bushel [5] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Market Price - This week, the continuous closing price of US soybeans was 1105.25 cents per bushel, a decrease of 32.5 cents per bushel. The reasons include the delay of China's purchase commitment completion time and the accelerated sowing speed of South American soybeans [7] - This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $304.7 per short ton, a decrease of $9.7 per short ton, pressured by the delay in China's purchase commitment [10] - This week, the price of US soybean oil fluctuated and slightly decreased, closing at 51.36 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.4 cents per pound. The decline in soybean meal bore the main pressure, and the rebound of palm oil provided additional support [13] 3.2 Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean production areas remained unchanged, with a drought rate of 64% [25] - The main soybean - producing areas in Brazil are expected to have good precipitation in the next two weeks, and the rainy season in Mato Grosso has returned with above - normal precipitation in the next two weeks. The precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul is good in the first week and slightly less in the second week. The rainfall forecast in South Mato Grosso is normal to high [27][32][34] - The precipitation in Argentina is expected to be less than normal in the next two weeks [39] - As of the week ending November 29, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil was 86%, compared with 78% last week and 90% last year [41] 3.3 Demand Factors - As of November 21, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.5 per bushel, down from $2.81 last week [44] - On October 31, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.0284 million tons, down from 1.3881 million tons last week [46] - On November 28, the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 0.9201 million tons, up from 0.8087 million tons last week [48] - The net sales of US soybeans this year was 1.2484 million tons, down from 1.4497 million tons last week (the week of October 31) [50] - The sales of US soybeans for the next year was 0 tons, the same as last week [52] - The quantity of US soybeans shipped to China in the week of October 31 was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [54] 3.4 Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.893, remaining in the La Niña range [57] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased [59][61] - As of October 28, the net long position of soybeans was 153,500 lots, compared with 55,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 8,100 lots, compared with 13,900 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 20,000 lots, compared with a net short position of 65,900 lots last week [65][67][69]

油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整体不宜 追高。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 (原油) 【铜】 隔夜铜价纪录位置震荡，LME现货升水缩至50美元，美伦溢价400美元以上。昨日国内现铜强跟涨到 91245元，上海升水扩至170元，精废价差扩至5000元以上，而周内SMM社库微减100吨。国内现货 信号及仓量跟踪,短线支持铜价。多单依托MA5均线持有,关注接近记录水平的量价表现。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月05日 隔夜沪铝上涨。近期资金推涨有色,铝市远期存在偏紧预期，短期供需矛盾有限,铝锭社库维持窄 幅波动，季节性库存表现中性。沪铝站稳22000元打开上方空间，震荡偏强趋势或有一定延续。 (铸造铝合金) 昨日保太ADC12现货报价上调200元至21100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整仍未明确，行业库存 和交易所仓单均处于高位水平。宏观驱动下铸造铝合金跟涨乏力，与沪铝价差扩大至千元以上，关 注年末可能存在收窄空间。 (氧化铝) (原油) 油价夜盘收涨。市场预期美联储降息，俄乌和平计划进展停滞，削弱了市场对达成协议后恢复俄沟 出口预期。 周四调查显示，尽管OPEC+同意提高11月份产量，但由于一些成员国的停产， OPEC11月 石油产量仍有所下降，故该组织的供应量进一步低于其目标且略低于10月产量。综上，短期内利多 因素占据主导下油价震荡偏强。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数降至19.1万人远低于预期，创2022年9月以来新低,缓解劳动力 市场急剧恶化担忧。12月降息已基本定价，贵金属震荡为主，黄金突破前高阻力前贵金属整 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Eggs [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] Core Views - The overall outlook for agricultural products shows a mixed trend, with different factors influencing each commodity. The market is mainly affected by factors such as South American weather, exports, domestic supply and demand, and policies [2][3][4]. Summary by Commodity Soybean - The main contract of soybeans shows a reduction in positions and a decline in price. The domestic soybean spot price is stable and firm, while the US soybeans are expected to be volatile and bullish due to South American weather and export factors. Short - term attention should be paid to domestic policies and the spot market [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - Dalian soybean futures prices are weakly volatile. South American new - season Brazilian soybean sowing progress is normal, while Argentine soybean planting is slow due to weather. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, but the profit of oil mill crushing is poor. Soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level, suppressing prices. Whether the 05 contract can break through the upper limit depends on US soybean exports and South American weather [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Palm oil's rebound is restricted, and the market is in the process of position transfer. The market expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to increase in November. If supply - side production cuts continue, the price may bottom out, but the rebound is limited by high inventory. For soybean oil, focus on policy changes, and the domestic soybean crushing profit is improving. Overall, the prices of soybean and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Most rapeseed - related futures contracts declined, with only the near - month rapeseed meal contract being resistant to decline due to tight delivery resources. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the oil sector. Canadian rapeseed exports are weak, and its price is under pressure. The supply of rapeseed is expected to be more relaxed in the medium - term, and the short - term price of rapeseed - related products is under pressure but the decline space is limited [6]. Corn - Corn spot prices in the north and at northern ports remain firm, and futures are strong. Northeast new - grain supply is lower than expected, and there are concerns about supply and transportation. The 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a pull - back [7]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures and spot prices are weak, and the average spot slaughter price continues to decline. With the approaching of the winter solstice, southern curing will start, but there is also an exit pressure from second - fattened pigs. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom pattern, and it is expected that pig prices may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - The near - month January contract of eggs hit a new low, and the spot price is stable but weak. The long - position trend of the far - month contract is driven by the expectation of declining inventory, but the current valuation is high, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is too large. The long - position trend is expected to end, and the near - month contract is bearish [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be on the sidelines and not chased higher [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to trade strongly sideways [1][10][13][15] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17][25] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly sideways; PTA is expected to rise in a sideways trend; apples are expected to trade strongly sideways; red dates are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][26][29] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and be cautious about chasing rallies in far - term contracts; egg prices are limited in their upward movement; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range operations; oils are expected to rebound from lows, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][30][35][41] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. It analyzes the fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors affecting each product, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock indices: The external environment has improved, but the market rotation is fast. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: After entering December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. It is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: It is in a policy vacuum period. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is expected to trade sideways at low levels, mainly for short - term trading [7] - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns causing a rebound in the futures market, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase higher in the near - term contracts [9] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) is complex. The long - term demand is optimistic, but the short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended for range short - term trading [10] - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment has improved, and it may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [11] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [13] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand improvement, and for range trading [13] - Gold and silver: Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and safe - haven demand, gold is for range trading, and silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions [15] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to trade strongly sideways. Pay attention to the progress of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and pay attention to policies and cost - side disturbances [17] - Caustic soda: The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to wait and watch [19] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways, and pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [19] - Rubber: The market is bearish, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended for range trading [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways [22] - Methanol: The supply in the inland has recovered, and the port inventory has decreased. It is recommended for range trading [24] - Polyolefins: The inventory is decreasing, but the demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to trade weakly sideways [25] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the recent domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is firm, so they are expected to trade strongly sideways [26] - PTA: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to rise in a sideways trend, with a focus on the range of 4600 - 4900 [27] - Apples: The inventory is mainly sold as needed, and the price is expected to trade strongly sideways [28] - Red dates: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the price is expected to trade weakly sideways [29] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. The near - term contracts are for short - selling on rallies, and be cautious about chasing rallies in the far - term contracts [30][31] - Eggs: In the short term, the supply - demand is marginally improved, and the price has support. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the price increase is limited [31][32] - Corn: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upward space is limited [33][34] - Soybean meal: It is mainly for range operations, and spot enterprises can fix the basis for December - January [35][36] - Oils: In the short term, the trends of different oils are differentiated. In the long term, they are expected to trade in a wide range. Be cautious about chasing rallies in soybean and palm oils, and pay attention to Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data and the December MPOB report [37][41]