Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil-producing areas currently, and it may be nearing its end as the Southern Oscillation Index approaches the 0-axis [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago has decreased, with sporadic rain in eastern Malaysia and Kalimantan, Indonesia. The southern part of the Malay Peninsula has poor soil moisture, and drought may spread in February. Most areas in Indonesia have sufficient rainfall, but attention should be paid to parts of Central and West Kalimantan. There is a risk of dry soil in other regions of Malaysia, and attention should be paid to local drought issues in the Malay Peninsula and Kalimantan, Indonesia [1] - There is limited short - term rainfall and no severe weather disasters currently. Continuous attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation does not improve, it may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [2] Regional Summaries Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall is on a downward trend, but soil moisture is good with no drought disturbances [23] - **Kalimantan Barat**: Rainfall is decreasing at the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil moisture [28] - **Kalimantan Tengah**: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil moisture may decline [36] - **Kalimantan Timur**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [43] - **Riau**: Rainfall has slightly improved, but soil moisture is still slightly lower than the 20 - year average [51] - **Sumatera Selatan**: Rainfall is increasing, and soil moisture is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [58] - **Sumatera Utara**: Rainfall has returned at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has been restored [64] Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and soil moisture may decline [70] - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a relatively low level, and soil moisture has not increased sufficiently [77] - **Perak**: Rainfall has decreased at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has declined [84] - **Sabah**: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90] - **Sarawak**: Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture remains at a relatively high level in recent years [97]

Core Insights - The UK Met Office predicts that by 2026, the global average temperature will rise by 1.34 to 1.58 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, with a median estimate of 1.46 degrees Celsius [1] - The hottest recorded year is 2024, with an average temperature 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and it is expected that global average temperatures will exceed 1.4 degrees Celsius for four consecutive years from 2024 to 2026 [2] - The ongoing trend of global warming is attributed to the continuous accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions [3] Climate Events - In 2025, extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, with significant impacts on health, energy systems, and food security [4] - Notable extreme weather events include heatwaves in Southern Europe, North America, and East Asia, leading to increased mortality risks and energy crises [4] - Severe droughts and wildfires in North America and high-latitude regions disrupt public health and transportation systems, while carbon emissions rise [5] - In Southeast Asia and South Asia, unprecedented compound flooding disasters are anticipated, affecting large populations [6] La Niña and Temperature Fluctuations - At the beginning of 2026, a weak La Niña state is expected, which may lead to temporary fluctuations in global average surface temperatures [9] - The La Niña phenomenon is not expected to reverse global warming but may redistribute heat and precipitation, resulting in varied regional climate impacts [12] Compound Extreme Events - The interaction between extreme weather events is intensifying, leading to an increase in compound extreme events, which can have more severe impacts than single events [13] - These compound events can affect multiple sectors, including water resources, food production, and infrastructure, necessitating enhanced research and response capabilities [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) is experiencing fluctuations in agricultural futures prices, with corn, wheat, and soybean prices either declining or remaining stable as the new year begins [1][2] - The most actively traded corn contract for March 2026 closed at $4.46 per bushel, down 0.75 cents or 0.17% from the previous trading day [1] - The March 2026 wheat contract remained unchanged at $5.18 per bushel, while the March 2026 soybean contract fell by 5.75 cents or 0.54% to $10.61 per bushel [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that China booked two ships of U.S. soybeans totaling 132,000 tons, indicating ongoing demand for U.S. agricultural products [2] - As of January 1, U.S. export sales included 4.4 million bushels of wheat, 14.9 million bushels of corn, and 32.3 million bushels of soybeans for the holiday week [2] - Cumulative export sales for the current crop year show an increase of 114 million bushels for wheat, 459 million bushels for corn, but a decrease of 426 million bushels for soybeans compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - Weather forecasts indicate beneficial rainfall for crop production in Argentina, while dry conditions in Buenos Aires require monitoring [2] - The weather conditions in northern Brazil are favorable for crop growth, with harvesting expected to begin after January 20 [2] - The Climate Prediction Center suggests a high likelihood of the La Niña phenomenon transitioning to an El Niño phenomenon during the summer, which could positively impact U.S. summer crop yields [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple agricultural products are in a state of price fluctuation. The overall supply of oilseeds is relatively loose, and the prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The prices of double - meal are also expected to fluctuate. Corn prices are expected to range - bound, and the pig market is expected to be volatile with a near - term weak and long - term strong trend. The prices of natural and synthetic rubber are expected to be bullish in the short - term and mid - term respectively. Cotton prices are expected to be bullish in the long - term, while sugar prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - and long - term. Pulp prices are expected to be bullish with fluctuations, and the prices of double - gum paper and logs are expected to be range - bound [1][5][8][11][13][16][18][19][20][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Oils and fats are fluctuating, with soybean oil being relatively strong. Attention should be paid to important reports [5]. - **Logic**: Soybean oil has a relatively strong trend, with a firm basis and increased spot trading. The impact of international geopolitical issues on crude oil prices is weakening, and the supply surplus has led to a decline in crude oil prices. The market expects a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, which will impact US soybean exports. The domestic soybean oil market should pay attention to the arrival and crushing of auctioned soybeans. Malaysian palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but the export demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is uncertain. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to decline in the near - term, and the basis is expected to be strong, while the supply is expected to increase in the long - term [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to the fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider short - term buying hedging after an oversold situation [6]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The market trading is hot, and double - meal continues to rise [1][8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the weather in South America is generally favorable for crop growth, but the dry weather in central and southern Argentina is a concern. The market expects a bumper harvest of South American soybeans, and the US soybean exports are facing competition. Domestically, there is a situation of weak supply and demand before the festival. The oil mill's operating rate, meal sales, and pick - up volume have all decreased, and the inventory has increased. The downstream pig inventory has increased, but the breeding is in a loss, and the feed enterprises' inventory has also increased. There are uncertainties in rapeseed imports [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to China's soybean import customs inspection policy [2][9]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The rotation of grain continues to be sold at a premium, and the futures have strengthened again [11]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals are generally stable. The premium transactions of corn acquisition and auction have ignited the market's bullish sentiment. The sales of grain in the Northeast are slow, and the arrival volume in the North China is decreasing. The downstream has established a certain safety inventory, and the production profit of deep - processing enterprises has shrunk. The launch of the policy - based grain source has a limited negative impact on corn [11]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is expected to fall first and then rise before the Spring Festival [11]. 3.4. Pig - **Viewpoint**: The slaughter rhythm slows down at the beginning of the month, and the spot price rebounds slightly [12]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the slaughter volume in December was high, and the planned slaughter volume in January has decreased. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, the sow inventory has decreased, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The consumption has weakened after the New Year's Day holiday, and the pig weight is higher than the same period last year [13]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be volatile. The near - term prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level, while the long - term prices are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [13]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The rubber price maintains a bullish trend [15]. - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strong sentiment in the commodity market, natural rubber has continued to rise. The rise is mainly driven by macro factors, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material prices are firm, but the demand is weak after the price increase [16]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, but the capital sentiment is strong. It is recommended to be bullish in the short - term [16]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The upward logic remains unchanged, and the market is running strongly [17]. - **Logic**: The market generally expects the fundamentals of butadiene to improve. The absolute price of the BR market is low. The price of butadiene has been strong recently, which has boosted the market. Although the inventory has increased, the buying sentiment has been driven by the positive expectations [18]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the medium - term [18]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It continues to rise with increasing positions [18]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue to rise, and the domestic market is expected to be stronger than the international market. The core drivers are the expected tight balance this year and the expected decrease in the planting area in 2026. The supply of US cotton is expected to be loose, and its rise will be indirectly driven by the domestic market [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the long - term. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [18]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is fluctuating, and there is still pressure in the future [19]. - **Logic**: Globally, the supply in the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be loose. In the domestic market, the sugar production is expected to increase. The overall supply situation at home and abroad remains unchanged, and the sugar price is expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be range - bound with a downward trend in the medium - and long - term. A strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [19]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: It falls after reaching a high, and the pulp market continues to fluctuate [20]. - **Logic**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. There are still some bullish factors, such as the increase in the US dollar price of broad - leaf pulp and the expected supply reduction of coniferous pulp. However, there are also bearish factors, such as the difficulty in cost transfer and the seasonal decline in demand. The market is currently driven by capital, and the futures are expected to be range - bound with an upward trend [20]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend. The bottom is supported by positive news, but there is pressure from hedging at the top [20][21]. 3.10. Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the double - gum paper market is fluctuating at a high level [21]. - **Logic**: The market sentiment has improved after the paper mill raised the price, and the futures market has been running strongly. The spot market has changed from a downward trend to an upward trend. The supply is expected to be stable in January, and the price is expected to be supported in the short - term. The price may be weak in February due to the Spring Festival holiday and is expected to be supported in March [22]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to form a bottom, and it is expected to be range - bound with an upward trend in the short - term [22]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The market is warming up, and logs are strengthening following the black - goods sector [23]. - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strength of the commodity and black - goods sectors, the log futures have rebounded. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The supply pressure is expected to ease in January and February. The futures price has support at a certain level, and the 03 contract has some trading opportunities [23]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure will ease marginally in January and February, and the log market is expected to be range - bound [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of the beginning of 2026, the intensity of the La Niña phenomenon remained weak, with no significant deviation in overall rainfall in Southeast Asia, currently having limited impact on palm oil production areas [1] - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago decreased, with rainfall concentrated in East Malaysia and most parts of Indonesia. The southern part of the Malay Peninsula had poor soil moisture, and drought might spread further after February. Most areas in Indonesia had abundant rainfall, significantly alleviating soil moisture. The rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak in Malaysia was acceptable, with good soil moisture across the country, but the rest of the regions still faced a risk of soil dryness. Attention should be paid to the drought issues in the Malay Peninsula and western Kalimantan in Indonesia [1] - There was a lack of short - term disruptive weather events. Continuous attention should be paid to areas with poor soil moisture. If the situation did not improve, it might affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1产区降水预报 - Recent rainfall in the production areas has shown differentiation, with less rainfall in Malaysia [3] 3.2产区土壤湿度 - The Malay Peninsula has insufficient rainfall and poor soil moisture [9] 3.3 Indonesia Palm Oil Production Areas 3.3.1占碑（Jambi） - Rainfall at the beginning of the year increased soil moisture [21] 3.3.2西卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Barat） - Abundant rainfall has led to moist soil [28] 3.3.3中卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Tengah） - The soil moisture level is higher than the same period last year [34] 3.3.4东卡里曼丹（Kalimantan Timur） - Abundant precipitation has resulted in moist soil [42] 3.3.5廖内（Riau） - Rainfall has slightly improved, but soil moisture is still slightly lower than the 20 - year average [49] 3.3.6南苏门答腊（Sumatera Selatan） - Rising rainfall is expected to bring soil moisture above the 20 - year average [56] 3.3.7北苏门答腊（Sumatera Utara） - Rainfall returned at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture has been restored [62] 3.4 Malaysia Palm Oil Production Areas 3.4.1柔佛（Johor） - Limited rainfall at the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to whether soil moisture decreases [69] 3.4.2彭亨（Pahang） - Rainfall has returned to a relatively low level, and the increase in soil moisture is insufficient [75] 3.4.3霹雳（Perak） - Rainfall decreased at the beginning of the year, and soil moisture declined [82] 3.4.4沙巴（Sabah） - Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [88] 3.4.5沙捞越（Sarawak） - Rainfall is acceptable, and soil moisture remains at a relatively high level in recent years [93]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the global soybean supply and demand for the 2025/26 season will present a generally loose supply and moderate destocking pattern, ending three consecutive years of inventory accumulation. Despite a reduction in U.S. production, the expected bumper harvest in South America supports a still loose global supply structure, with the stock-to-use ratio decreasing by 0.4 percentage points to 11.8% [2][19][70] - The key variables in the supply and demand balance for 2026 will focus on the realization of production in major producing countries and the restructuring of export flows [2][19][70] - For U.S. soybeans, the yield forecast for the 2025/26 season remains at 53 bushels per acre, with expectations for a downward adjustment of about 0.5 bushels per acre. If the demand forecast remains unchanged, U.S. soybean stocks may tighten to around 250 million bushels, potentially leading to a market performance similar to that of the first quarter of this year [2][25][70] Group 2 - In South America, Brazil's planting area for the 2025/26 season is steadily increasing, and the expectation of a bumper harvest continues. The latest NOAA forecast indicates that a weak La Niña will persist until December 2025 to February 2026, with a 61% probability of transitioning to neutral conditions between January and March 2026. The impact of a weak La Niña year on Brazil is relatively small, and it is expected that there will be little reversal of the bumper harvest expectations this year [2][19][54] - The risk of extreme drought impacting the South American soybean production season in 2025/26 is considered low, with only a 40%-50% probability of below-normal rainfall in major production areas during January-February 2026 [3][54] Group 3 - The 2025 soybean meal market review indicates that the tightening supply and demand expectations for U.S. soybeans at the beginning of 2025 led to a rebound in the CBOT soybean futures contract to a range of 1030-1080 cents per bushel. Trade policies became a key variable in March-April, with concerns over a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans imposed by China leading to price declines [55][60] - The valuation analysis highlights that the core variables are the South American basis and U.S. soybean prices. The market's current structure for Brazil's soybean export quotes has fully priced in the "bumper harvest expectations," with expected CIF procurement averages for March, May, and July being 50-100 cents, 100-150 cents, and 150-200 cents per bushel, respectively [59][88] Group 4 - The domestic soybean meal market in the first quarter saw futures prices synchronize with CBOT soybean trends, with the main futures contract rebounding from 2620 yuan per ton to a range of 2800-3000 yuan per ton. In the second quarter, the domestic market diverged significantly from the U.S. market, with the main contract for soybean meal breaking through 3100 yuan per ton [60][65] - The overall market for soybean meal in 2025/2026 is expected to show a "wide fluctuation with a slight upward trend," driven by a globally loose supply base, rigid domestic demand, policy disturbances increasing volatility, and cost support limiting downside [48][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products having different price trends and influencing factors [1][7]. - The oil market is affected by factors such as international crude oil prices, South American soybean production expectations, and Malaysian palm oil production and exports, with short - term rebounds and medium - term oscillations [1][7]. - The protein meal market is under inventory pressure, with double meal showing narrow - range oscillations [8]. - The corn and starch market is in a state of tight balance, with prices oscillating within a range [10][11]. - The pig market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term oscillations and long - term supply pressure expected to gradually ease [12]. - The natural rubber market has bullish sentiment, with rubber prices rebounding from low levels, and short - term bullishness is expected [14]. - The synthetic rubber market has a relatively certain improvement in the supply - demand pattern, with short - term upward pressure and medium - term oscillatory strength [16]. - The cotton market is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the long term, with a bullish view in the short term [16]. - The sugar market is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the medium - to - long term, with a downward driving force for sugar prices [18]. - The pulp market is expected to be oscillatory and strong, with bullish factors lifting the bottom and bearish factors mainly in the long - term price transmission [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the short term, with paper mills' price increases boosting market sentiment [20][21]. - The log market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with narrow - range oscillations and marginal improvement in fundamentals [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is on an upward trend, and vegetable oils continue to rebound. Domestic oil trends are oscillatory and strong, with palm oil showing a more obvious upward trend [1][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, crude oil prices are rising, increasing the attractiveness of palm oil as biodiesel. South American soybean production is expected to be high, with Brazil's soybean planting almost completed and Argentina's planting over half - done. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestically, soybean supply is relatively sufficient, and soybean oil inventory is slowly decreasing. Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period with improved export expectations, and palm oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and short - term price - holding sentiment among traders is strong, but global rapeseed production is high, and prices are difficult to rise in the long term [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Inventory pressure remains high, and double meal shows narrow - range oscillations [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and South American soybean production prospects are optimistic. Domestically, domestic soybeans are being continuously auctioned, and downstream purchase sentiment has declined after replenishment. Soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream consumption is not booming. Imported soybean purchase volume has changed in different quarters, and there are concerns about the extension of the inspection period for Australian imports, making rapeseed meal perform stronger than soybean meal [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to oscillate [8]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a differentiation between North China and Northeast China, and futures prices rise and then fall [10][11]. - **Logic**: As the delivery approaches, the futures market follows the logic of price convergence with the spot market. In the upstream, snow in Northeast China has affected the grain supply rhythm, and in North China, the improvement of local corn quality has diverted some demand for Northeast corn. In the downstream, after continuous replenishment, downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory, and the market is in a state of tight balance [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain sales progress, and downstream profit conditions [12]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: At the end of the month, the supply volume decreases, and pig prices rebound [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens decreased in mid - December and rebounded in late December, with a decrease in supply at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. Near the New Year's Day holiday, the demand for stocking has increased, but the pig weight is still high [12]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate. The near - term contracts are expected to operate weakly, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Bullish sentiment remains, and rubber prices rebound from low levels [14]. - **Logic**: After a slight decline due to commodity adjustments, rubber prices rebounded. The short - term upward space may be further expanded if there is continuous position - increasing or strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but there is a certain downward pressure. The demand side is weak after the rapid price increase [14]. - **Outlook**: Fundamentals have limited variables, but market sentiment is strong, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market shows a strong oscillatory trend [16]. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of marginal improvement in the butadiene supply - demand pattern is gradually becoming a consensus. The absolute price of the BR contract is relatively low. The butadiene market price was firm last week, and the downstream synthetic rubber market is strong, driving the butadiene market atmosphere [16]. - **Outlook**: The improvement in the butadiene supply - demand pattern is relatively certain, but there is short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the medium term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues [16]. - **Logic**: Recently, Zhengzhou cotton has risen strongly. Fundamentally, the new cotton listing progress is fast from September to December, but the inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected, and the apparent demand has increased year - on - year. Policy - wise, there are plans to reduce cotton planting in Xinjiang next year, which boosts market sentiment. In the long term, the domestic cotton supply - demand may be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the long term, and the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: There is a slight rebound, but prices are still under pressure [18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, with Brazil, Thailand, and India all increasing production. In the domestic new crushing season, production is also increasing, and the spot pressure is increasing. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract has rebounded technically but is still in a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the medium - to - long term, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is dull, and futures prices oscillate repeatedly [19]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded yesterday, and the spot market is calm. The market is affected by the financial market atmosphere. Fundamentally, there are bullish factors such as the increase in broad - leaf pulp prices, the supply reduction expectation due to pulp mill shutdowns, and the high actual demand. There are also bearish factors such as difficulties in cost transmission for downstream paper products, seasonal decline in demand, and high hedging pressure on traders [19]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and strong. Bullish news raises the bottom, but the hedging pressure above remains [19]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the market shows a strong trend [20]. - **Logic**: The double - gum paper market is operating stably, with limited production changes in the industry. The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market sentiment is boosted by paper mills' price increases. The market is under the dual pressure of high costs and weak demand, but paper mills have a strong demand for price increases [20]. - **Outlook**: Paper mills' price increases boost market sentiment, and the paper price is expected to bottom out and be oscillatory and strong in the short term [21]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices oscillate in a narrow range [22]. - **Logic**: The log market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with stable trading. The external market provides support for the futures price. In the short term, there is a small space for processing plants to replenish inventory, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the first quarter. In the medium term, the 03 contract has certain trading points [22]. - **Outlook**: Fundamentals are improving marginally, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [22].

Core Insights - The current La Niña phenomenon in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific is expected to continue until January 2026, with a low probability of forming a new La Niña event [1][2] - La Niña conditions are leading to reduced precipitation in East and South China, particularly affecting regions like Jiangnan and southeastern Jiangsu [2] Summary by Sections La Niña Status - The equatorial central and eastern Pacific is currently in a La Niña state, characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures [1] - The NINO3.4 index, which measures sea surface temperature anomalies, indicates that the La Niña state is ongoing, with a three-month average value below -0.5 degrees Celsius [1] Impact on Precipitation - The La Niña state is contributing to the formation of cyclonic abnormal circulation over the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, which weakens the transport of warm, moist air from the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea to southern China [2] - In December, the average precipitation in China was recorded at 7.5 millimeters, which is 33.8% lower than the historical average for the same period [2] Future Projections - The China Meteorological Administration forecasts that in January 2026, there will be significantly reduced precipitation in central East China and southern Central China, with temperatures close to or above the historical average [2] - There is a potential for the development of meteorological droughts in these regions, prompting authorities to monitor drought conditions closely and manage water resources effectively [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook in the macro and financial sector is (weakening) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is weakening as the US makes continuous policy mistakes and is past its peak [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Trump ordered an air strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, escalating US tensions with the largest economy in West Africa, and the move is related to global energy pattern changes and strategic mineral supply - chain competition [1] - The US economy shows a "K - shaped divide", with large enterprises profiting from the AI wave while small businesses face difficulties due to inflation, tariffs, and consumption downgrade, exacerbating employment and social inequality [1] - Large tech companies are moving over $120 billion in data - center spending off their balance sheets via SPVs, raising concerns about financial risks in AI investment [1] - Mark Strouse from JPMorgan believes that in 2025, investors only need AI exposure, but in 2026, actual deals and order accumulation are required [1] - A new La Nina is forming, the fifth in the past six years, which will disrupt the global weather system and pose risks to agriculture, energy markets, and supply chains [1] - Jim Rickards predicts that factors driving the metal market up will continue next year, with gold possibly reaching $10,000 and silver $200 [1] - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the one - year silver swap spread at - 7.18%, showing a shortage of physical silver [1] - Fujitsu will join a project led by SoftBank to develop next - generation memory for AI and supercomputers, aiming to revive Japan's memory production technology [1] Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs believes global stocks are in the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with a 15% total return (including dividends) in 2026 [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to pre - 2008 financial crisis signals [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to boost its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a growing K - shaped divide among US consumers [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun thinks China will win the AI race due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current La Niña phenomenon in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific, which is characterized by a significant and sustained cooling of sea surface temperatures [3] - La Niña events typically occur every two to seven years, but their frequency has increased in recent years, closely linked to the complex mechanisms of global warming [3] - The impact of La Niña is expected to result in reduced precipitation in southern China this winter, with more frequent cold air outbreaks leading to significant temperature fluctuations [3] Group 2 - While La Niña is associated with colder winters, it is not the direct cause of cold winter conditions; other factors such as Arctic sea ice, snow cover, and mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation systems also play a role [3] - Predictions indicate that regions in East and South China may experience drought conditions extending from winter into spring due to the influence of La Niña [3]