Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 28, 2025, the rubber futures market tumbled, with the main natural rubber contract dropping 4.19% to 13,830 yuan/ton. The decline was due to increased supply expectations and weak demand. The report suggests not chasing short positions as the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices continued to adjust, with the CSI 1000 being strong in the morning and weakening at noon; the Hong Kong stock market opened higher and then oscillated lower. Technically, the index maintained a high - level weak oscillation pattern [6][7]. - The gold market has broken through a small platform, and the low point on May 15th can be considered the end of the adjustment. It is expected to reach the high point on May 9th. There is resistance at a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to buy rather than chasing the rise [9][10]. - For iron ore, due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments in May, there is a large supply surplus pressure. As domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, there is a high - valuation risk. Technically, it is recommended to adopt a bearish and oscillating view [13]. - For glass, demand growth depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introductions. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish outlook as the overall trend remains unchanged [16]. - For urea, with a domestic daily output of about 205,600 tons and an operating rate of about 87.23%, agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and downstream players are less involved. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment in the short term [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - Rubber Futures - On May 28, 2025, the natural rubber main contract fell 4.19% to 13,830 yuan/ton. Although short - term rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas affected supply and supported prices, after the rainy season, supply is expected to increase. The end of La Nina and expected ENSO neutrality in the Northern Hemisphere summer reduce the probability of extreme weather affecting production. On the demand side, the EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires and high inventory in tire factories may lead to weaker开工 rates [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The A - share market's three major indices continued to adjust, and the Hong Kong stock market opened high and then fell. Technically, the index maintained a high - level weak oscillation pattern [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The gold market has broken through a small platform, and the low point on May 15th can be considered the end of the adjustment. It is expected to reach the high point on May 9th. There is resistance at a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for a pull - back to buy rather than chasing the rise [9][10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments led to a large supply surplus. As domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, there is a high - valuation risk. Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today, and the trend is bearish [13]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Demand growth depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introductions. Technically, it oscillated lower today, and the overall bearish trend remains unchanged [16]. Technical Analysis - Urea - The domestic urea daily output is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23%. Agricultural demand is progressing slowly, and downstream players are less involved. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment in the short term [18].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the coal industry in China, focusing on the impact of climate conditions on coal production and related agricultural activities. Core Insights and Arguments - **Drought Conditions**: In spring 2025, eastern and central China experienced varying degrees of drought, particularly in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Guangdong, with severe drought persisting in Gansu, Shaanxi, Henan, and southern Jiangsu. The average national precipitation from January 1 to May 11, 2025, was 110.76 mm, approximately 13% lower than the average of the past 30 years, marking the lowest level since 2011 [2][3][4] - **Climate Influences**: The reduced precipitation is attributed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which hindered moisture transport to eastern China. The La Niña phenomenon exacerbated the lack of precipitation during winter and spring [2][3][4] - **Future Weather Predictions**: For the upcoming weeks, moderate to severe meteorological drought is expected to continue in parts of northwest China and southern Jiangsu and Henan, while southern regions will experience increased rainfall, with some areas seeing precipitation levels 30% to 60% above normal [4][10] - **Extreme Weather Events**: The 2025 flood season (June to August) is anticipated to witness frequent extreme weather events, including both drought and flooding. Northern regions are expected to receive more rainfall, while southern areas will see less, leading to significant flooding risks in the Haihe, Yellow River, Liaohe, and Huaihe basins [10][11] - **Typhoon Activity**: An increase in the number and intensity of typhoons is expected this year, with one or two potentially impacting China. The paths of these typhoons will be influenced by the subtropical high-pressure system and the La Niña phenomenon [10][30] Additional Important Content - **Wind Events**: There has been a notable increase in strong wind events since winter 2025, posing challenges to agriculture, safety, and environmental protection. This is linked to significant atmospheric circulation patterns [5][6][21] - **Temperature Trends**: The summer of 2025 is projected to be warmer than average, with temperatures expected to rise by more than 0.5 degrees Celsius nationwide, particularly in the Yangtze River basin and southern regions, where temperatures may exceed 1 to 2 degrees Celsius above normal [4][35] - **Impact on Agriculture**: The ongoing drought and high temperatures are likely to adversely affect agricultural production, especially for winter wheat in severely impacted areas [4][10] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between climate conditions and the coal industry, as well as the broader implications for agriculture and weather patterns in China.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to tariff policy changes, a sharp drop in international crude oil prices, and a marginal loosening of supply expectations in the producing areas [22][23]. - Short - term soybean prices in the US are expected to experience more volatile fluctuations. Although the US has postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on some countries, which may boost soybean prices, there are still significant uncertainties in US tariff and biodiesel policies, and the sowing of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is imminent [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and price changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are presented. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies also show corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided. CNF premiums and quotes for soybean crushing in different regions are also given [2]. 3.3 Weather Forecast - From May 12th to May 16th, the temperature in the main soybean - producing states in the US is expected to be higher, and precipitation will significantly increase. The weather in the US Midwest is generally favorable, with improved planting progress and early growth conditions, but long - term dryness could be a problem [3][5]. 3.4 Production Forecasts - The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2024/25 season is 19 million tons, with an upward revision of less than 1% from the previous estimate, supported by a rebound in crop yields. The production in Indonesia for the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous estimate. The production in Thailand for the 2024/25 season is expected to remain at 3.59 million tons, also unchanged from the previous estimate [6][8][9]. - Analysts predict that the US soybean production for the 2025/26 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, with an estimated ending inventory of 362 million bushels. The global ending inventory of soybeans for the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 126.02 million tons [9]. - The estimated rapeseed production in Canada for the 2025/26 season is 18.2 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year, despite a decrease in planting area and unfavorable summer weather prospects [12]. 3.5 Export Forecasts - Anec expects Brazil to export 12.6 million tons of soybeans and 1.87 million tons of soybean meal in May. Imea predicts that the soybean exports from Mato Grosso in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will decrease by 4% compared to the previous year [10]. 3.6 Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 7th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 24,850 tons, a 293% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 378,700 tons, with an increase of 276,600 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 53.68%, a 5.73% increase from the previous day [14]. 3.7 Macro News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 80.2%. The US consumer credit increased in March. FOMC decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve and crude oil inventories in the US changed. The retail sales in the Eurozone in March had specific monthly and annual changes. Brazil's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points [17][18][19]. - **Domestic News**: On May 7th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward. The Chinese central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. The central bank lowered the re - lending rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate. China increased its gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves in April [21]. 3.8 Key Information Analysis - MPOB's March palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory increased by 3.52% to 1.563 million tons. The production, export, import, and consumption all changed compared to the previous month. The report's impact is neutral [22]. - USDA's April supply - demand report made adjustments to the US and Brazilian soybean supply - demand balance sheets. The report's impact is neutral, and US soybean prices may be more volatile in the short term [24]. 3.9 Capital Flows - On May 7th, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 1.425 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 11.301 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 12.726 billion yuan [27]. 3.10 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 annual Canadian canola production is expected to rebound to 18.2 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year, despite a 3.5% reduction in planting area and adverse summer weather prospects in the southern prairies [1]. - Indonesia's 2024/25 annual palm oil production is expected to be 48.8 million tons, remaining the same as the previous estimate, with the post - Eid al - Fitr harvest resumption having a positive impact [1]. - Malaysia's 2024/25 annual palm oil production is expected to be 19 million tons, revised up by less than 1%, supported by a rebound in crop yields, with many producers reporting a 20 - 30% production rebound in April compared to March [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Canadian Canola - The total canola planting area is expected to be 8.59 million hectares, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year and a 1.9% decrease from StatCan's March 12 forecast [1]. - The main reason for the expected reduction in canola area is its weaker competitiveness compared to other grains and oilseeds due to higher production costs and more nitrogen fertilizer requirements [1]. - Since a certain month, soil moisture in major producing areas in south - western Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba has been at a six - year low, while Alberta's soil moisture is still healthy [1]. - The summer weather outlook from July to August indicates higher - than - normal temperatures and lower - than - normal rainfall in the southern prairies, which may put downward pressure on yields [1]. Indonesian Palm Oil - The 2024/25 annual palm oil production estimate ranges from 43.8 million to 53.8 million tons [1]. - In April, there were local floods in some areas such as Riau, Lampung, East Kalimantan, and Central Kalimantan, but the impact on overall crop recovery is expected to be limited [1]. - In the next 15 days, most areas are expected to have near - or slightly above - normal rainfall, with 20 - 70 mm more than normal in East, North, and South Kalimantan [1]. - A neutral ENSO trend is expected to last from July to August, bringing sufficient rainfall and potentially benefiting palm oil production if floods are avoided [1]. Malaysian Palm Oil - The 2024/25 annual palm oil production estimate ranges from 18.5 million to 19.5 million tons, with a significant seasonal increase in both Peninsular Malaysia and East Malaysia [1]. - More favorable weather conditions and increased harvesting after workers returned from the holiday season supported the production growth [1]. - In April, rainfall patterns varied across Malaysia, with floods in some parts of Selangor due to heavy rainfall in the central Peninsular Malaysia, but the impact was local and did not seriously disrupt the overall production [1]. - Palm - growing areas are expected to have near - or slightly above - normal rainfall in the next 15 days, supporting harvesting and farm work [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices for soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 28 to May 7, 2025, are presented in a table, showing fluctuations during this period [2]

"但这里有个矛盾，'拉尼娜年'北风偏大，理论上天气应该要偏冷，很显然今年并非冷冬，春季虽 然大降温大回暖，一波接一波，但整体还是偏暖的。" 刚刚过去的这个周末，雨水、大风、沙尘、降温……杭城的天气舞台上演了一场"混战"，少见的14 级大风的到来仍然让人心有余悸。好在，周一下午之后，大风天气逐步平息，气温也开启回升模式， 30℃+的"初夏体验卡"正待领取。 目前来看，这周天气舞台的混乱程度虽较上周平稳，但仍有变数。这个春天，"天气君"似乎总是频 频"变脸"，沙尘、强风、气温动不动就"暖如初夏"，这是为什么？ 民间气象组织@中国气象爱好者解释，有两大原因。第一是拉尼娜现象，它让大陆的冬季风偏强， 干燥北风刮个不停，雨雪也因此变得特别少，沙源地开春土壤化冻之后很容易尘土飞扬。 据杭州市气象台消息，受冷空气持续补充南下影响，杭城天空中高、低压之间的梯度风持续，周一 白天仍有较大风力。下午之后，低压逐渐东移，高压减弱，气压梯度随之减小，大风天气也将逐步平 息。 大风过后，未来几天，杭州将以晴到多云天气为主，气温也将奔向"3"字头，到周四（17日）最高 气温甚至能达33℃，又是热火朝天的感觉。后续"雨水君"也会来刷"存在 ...