1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For corn: With the progress of US corn harvest, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting downward pressure on US corn prices. In the domestic market, in the Northeast production area, farmers' willingness to sell has slightly decreased, and the arrival volume of processing enterprises has dropped significantly, with some enterprises raising prices slightly. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the harvest of new corn has been slow due to continuous rainfall, and the market is optimistic about the high - quality grain market, with purchase prices continuing to rise. The corn futures price has rebounded, but it is still recommended to sell on rallies due to the upcoming concentrated listing pressure [2]. - For corn starch: As the supply of raw corn increases, the cost support for corn starch weakens. After the festival, the industry's operating rate has increased significantly, and inventory has slightly increased. The industry inventory remains high, and the substitution advantages of cassava starch and wheat starch still exist, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Although the starch price has risen in tandem with the rebound of corn, the overall starch market is still in a bearish trend, and a bearish strategy is maintained [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2144 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; corn monthly spread (1 - 5): 6 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1): 49 yuan/ton. Futures closing price of CBOT corn: 424 cents/bushel. Futures positions (active contract): 49071 hands for yellow corn, 849415 hands for corn starch. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 75401 hands for corn, - 59726 hands for corn starch. Registered warehouse receipts: 49324 hands for yellow corn, 12504 hands for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract: 317 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT: Total corn positions (weekly): 1543065 contracts, an increase of 13269 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of corn: - 51186 contracts, a decrease of 15017 contracts [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2259.41 yuan/ton, down 3.34 yuan; factory quotation of corn starch in Changchun: 2510 yuan/ton; flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port: 2180 yuan/ton; import cost - insured and duty - paid price of corn: 1981.56 yuan/ton, down 0.79 yuan; international freight of imported corn: 0 US dollars/ton. Corn starch main contract basis: 130 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; corn main contract basis: - 9.34 yuan; Shandong starch - corn spread (weekly): 490 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan [2] 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - Average spot price of wheat: 2458.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.73 yuan; cassava starch - corn starch spread (weekly): 299 yuan/ton, an increase of 31 yuan; corn starch - 30 - powder spread: - 188 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan [2] 3.5 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.44 million hectares, an increase of 0.55 million hectares; forecasted yield: 425.26 million tons. Forecasted sown area in Brazil: 131 million hectares; forecasted yield: 22.6 million tons. Forecasted sown area in Argentina: 53 million hectares; forecasted yield: 7.5 million tons. Forecasted sown area in China: 295 million hectares; forecasted yield: 44.3 million tons. Forecasted yield in Ukraine: 32 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 38.7 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 203.6 million tons, a decrease of 8.2 million tons. Corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 93 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 119.9 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons. Monthly import volume of corn: 4 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 14800 tons, a decrease of 1140 tons. Monthly feed production: 2927.2 million tons [2] 3.7 Downstream Situation - Sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 24.44 days, a decrease of 0.05 days; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 122.31 million tons, an increase of 3.04 million tons. Alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 53.19%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 56.74%, an increase of 4.93 percentage points. Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan; in Hebei: 83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in Jilin: 47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [2] 3.8 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 8.14%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points; 60 - day historical volatility: 6.83%. Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn: 10.36%, a decrease of 4.69 percentage points; implied volatility of at - the - money put options: 10.37%, a decrease of 4.68 percentage points [2] 3.9 Industry News - The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is cautious about whether a La Nina phenomenon is currently forming. As of October 16, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 51%, compared with 45% a week ago and 48% in the same period last year. Due to the US government shutdown, the US Department of Agriculture did not release the crop progress report, and market trading remained cautious [2]

大摩续指，拉尼娜信号似乎正在增强，如果真的出现，今个冬季可能变得更为寒冷，从而导致潜在的天 然气短缺。因此，天然气消费可能激增，批发和零售价格或上涨。今年冬季的天然气需求增长可能从今 夏的2%加速至同比增长9%。 大摩相信，中石油将仍是中国首选的天然气投资标的，因其批发端的天然气定价改革、进口成本下降、 零售的参与以及结构性需求增长。大摩将公司的天然气业务(勘探与生产、分销和管道)视为公用事业资 产，预计在油价介乎每桶60至65美元的背景下，明年中石油的天然气利润很可能达到石油利润的约两 倍。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，随着冬季即将来临，由厄尔尼诺现象造成的上两个暖冬影 响已消退，因此即将到来的冬天预期较以往更寒冷。此外，若拉尼娜信号(代表更冷的气候)持续增强， 中国可能在久违五年后，重新出现天然气短缺现象，中国石油股份(00857)或有显著的盈利上行空间， 予该股目标价10.25港元，评级"增持"。 ...

大摩相信，中石油将仍是中国首选的天然气投资标的，因其批发端的天然气定价改革、进口成本下降、 零售的参与以及结构性需求增长。大摩将公司的天然气业务(勘探与生产、分销和管道)视为公用事业资 产，预计在油价介乎每桶60至65美元的背景下，明年中石油的天然气利润很可能达到石油利润的约两 倍。 大摩续指，拉尼娜信号似乎正在增强，如果真的出现，今个冬季可能变得更为寒冷，从而导致潜在的天 然气短缺。因此，天然气消费可能激增，批发和零售价格或上涨。今年冬季的天然气需求增长可能从今 夏的2%加速至同比增长9%。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，随着冬季即将来临，由厄尔尼诺现象造成的上两个暖冬影响已消退，因此即将 到来的冬天预期较以往更寒冷。此外，若拉尼娜信号(代表更冷的气候)持续增强，中国可能在久违五年 后，重新出现天然气短缺现象，中国石油股份(00857)或有显著的盈利上行空间，予该股目标价10.25港 元，评级"增持"。 ...

中美贸易争端笼罩下，油脂走 势何去何从？ 核心观点 国庆节期间，由于市场预计 MPOB9 月报告影响利多、印尼 B50 完成非 道路测试以及中美即将举行元首会面带来两国关系改善的预期，马棕油及美 豆上涨带动节后国内油脂高开。但是节后 MPOB9 月报告影响意外利空，且 中美贸易争端再次升级，对油脂接下来的走势蒙上阴影。本文将分析在宏观 风险笼罩的大背景下，三大油脂的基本面及后续走势预期。 短期来看，川普总统确定中美元首仍计划在 10 月底的 APEC 会议上会 面，宏观风险部分减弱但仍然存在，需等待会议结果。油脂自身基本面方面， 目前三大油都处于多空交织状态，短期走势预计延续震荡运行。品种上，棕 油因为马棕油 10 月出口数据维持强劲、印尼可能提高出口税并限制出口来 保证国内棕油供应，豆油因为中美关系出现缓和迹象促使美豆上涨带来的成 本端支撑，预计表现相对偏强。而菜油因为加拿大外交部长访华后两国关系 有好转的迹象，预计表现相对偏弱。不过本次谈判没有突破性进展，菜油下 跌空间有限。 中长期来看，从 11 月起东南亚进入传统减产季，叠加印尼 B50 继续发 酵和国内 11 月后买船相对偏少，棕油有望在 11 月后 ...

今天，A股三大指数集体上涨。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.63%，深证成指、创业板指数分别上涨 0.98%、1.98%。 沪深两市成交额17376亿元，较上一交易日缩量2005亿元。整个市场有超过4000只个股上涨，个股 涨跌幅的中位数为上涨1.03%。 今天，主要宽基指数都收出了阴十字星或假阴真阳线。当前，行情存在一个隐忧，那就是市场成交 继续缩量。 最典型的案例就是去年7月31日，证券板块指数当日大涨超5%。尽管之后市场展开调整，证券板块 也震荡回落，但回落的幅度有限，并在一个多月之后迎来了"924"行情。 当然，证券板块指数的"立柱"，也并不能表明市场不会震荡或调整。只不过，正是因为有了"立 柱"，会让我们对短期震荡或调整更加理性与积极。 从消息与市场角度来看，今天市场上涨有几个原因，比如周五收盘后港股指数大幅修复、海外大客 户近期上修2026年1.6T光模块采购计划。 在达哥看来，消息对市场的短期影响，其实并不影响中期格局，我们要做的是：操作理性淡定，心 态积极乐观。 板块方面，AI核心的"易中天"早盘跳空上涨，盘中涨幅在10%左右，带动AI方向集体反弹，这为市 场反弹提供了信心。不过，"易中天"等核心股 ...

据中央气象台发布信息，今年下半年以来最强冷空气已上线，大部地区将出现今年下半年以来最低气 温。据悉，10月19日至21日，随着冷空气东移南下，中东部地区气温普遍下降4-8℃，局地降温达10℃ 以上。北方多地气温创今年下半年新低。20日早晨，北京南郊观象台最低气温降至-0.5℃。沈阳、银川 等城市气温立秋后首次跌破冰点，上海、杭州、南昌等地气温则立秋后首次跌破20℃。 10月以来，A股市场整体呈现回调态势，尤其是以创业板和科创板为代表的科技股调整幅度较大。但与 此同时，红利风格再度回归，截至10月20日收盘，上证红利指数月内涨幅达5.6%，创年内最佳月度表 现。 上证红利指数大涨背后，煤炭股功不可没。数据显示，截至10月20日收盘，申万煤炭指数月内涨超 12%，位列全部31只申万一级行业指数首位，且涨幅领先第二位的银行指数达7个百分点，月内表现可 谓"一骑绝尘"。 成分股方面，大有能源以近79%的月涨幅在板块内居首，宝泰隆、安泰集团、郑州煤电等月内涨幅均超 过30%。行业龙头中国神华、陕西煤业月内分别上涨9.69%和14.5%，在上证50成分股中表现仅次于农业 银行，涨幅分列第三和第二位。 值得注意的是，煤炭板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber futures market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with a notable lack of core positive factors driving the market, leading to a cautious sentiment among investors [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Recent natural rubber futures prices have shown a weak oscillation, with the spot market also declining; the price of Yunnan's full latex in the Shanghai market has dropped to 14,250 yuan/ton [1] - After the National Day holiday, the overall capital flow in the rubber futures market has been positive, but macro risk events continue to evolve, keeping the market under pressure [1] - The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China reached 742,000 tons in September 2025, with year-on-year and month-on-month increases of 20.85% and 11.75% respectively, maintaining a high import level [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of new rubber has been slow due to adverse weather conditions, but the situation is expected to improve as the typhoon season ends and rainfall decreases in Southeast Asia, facilitating normal harvesting [1][3] - The tire market, a major downstream sector for natural rubber, is expected to weaken post-holiday, with domestic demand being sluggish while exports remain strong due to previous anti-dumping measures from the EU [2] - ANRPC forecasts a slight decline in global natural rubber production by 0.03% to 8.856 million tons for the first eight months of 2025, with consumption expected to drop by 0.6% to 10.146 million tons [3] Group 3: Price Outlook - The current low valuation of natural rubber and ongoing warehouse receipt cancellations suggest limited downward price movement, despite accelerated supply release [3] - The World Meteorological Organization has indicated a potential return of the La Niña phenomenon, which could lead to weather disruptions in Q4, potentially supporting a rebound in rubber prices if production decreases occur [3]

短期来看，天然橡胶市场供给释放加速，期价难获有力支撑。但当前天然橡胶估值水平偏低，且仓单持 续注销，后续存在收储预期，期价下行空间亦相对有限。后续仍需重点跟踪东南亚主产区天气、国内库 存数据及国际宏观政策变化。 受替代指标入关及海外工厂前期集中发货影响，2025年9月中国天然及合成橡胶（包含胶乳）进口量达 74.2万吨，同比、环比增幅分别为20.85%、11.75%，进口维持高位态势。我国橡胶1—9月累计进口量已 达611.5万吨，增幅超百万吨。后续海外主产区出口有望增长，国内库存或加速累积。 作为天然橡胶主要的下游领域，轮胎市场国庆假期后存在走弱预期。半钢胎方面，需求结构有所分化， 内需偏弱，出口较强，主要系此前欧盟欲对我国轮胎实施反倾销，市场在"抢出口"下存在较强支撑，但 后续需求增速将逐步回落至常规水平。此外，近期国际贸易摩擦加剧，宏观风险事件持续发酵，市场担 忧情绪升温。 尽管近期轮胎企业开工率出现恢复性提升，但因节前已完成阶段性备货，短期原料采购需求有限。 据ANRPC（天然橡胶生产国协会）最新预测，2025年前8个月，全球天胶累计产量料微降0.03%，至 885.6万吨，累计消费量料降0.6%，至 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 15 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓 ...

行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 14 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | | | | | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） 持仓量（张） ...