1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Basis and Calendar Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) decreased from 10 on 1/13 to -93 on 2/11, with a daily change of -30 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) decreased from 30 on 1/13 to -43 on 2/11, with a daily change of -30 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) decreased from -10 on 1/13 to -93 on 2/11, with a daily change of -30 [3]. - The 03 - 06 spread decreased from -15 on 1/13 to -12 on 2/11, with a daily change of -4 [3]. - The 04 - 06 spread increased from -11 on 1/13 to 3 on 2/11, with a daily change of 4 [3]. - The 06 - 09 spread remained at 31 on 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. 3.2. Futures Contract Information - The BU主力合约 price increased from 3140 on 1/13 to 3373 on 2/11, with a daily change of 30 [3]. - The trading volume decreased from 409443 on 1/13 to 234042 on 2/11, with a daily change of 2427 and a decrease of 4 compared to the previous day [3]. - The open interest decreased from 434852 on 1/13 to 365458 on 2/11, with a daily change of -8941 and a decrease of 1 compared to the previous day [3]. - The contract value remained at 13580 from 2/5 to 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. 3.3. Crude Oil and Asphalt Prices - The Brent crude oil price increased from 63.3 on 1/13 to 69.4 on 2/11, with a daily change of 0.7 [3]. - The Jingbo asphalt price decreased from 3260 on 2/5 to 3200 on 2/11, with a daily change of -10 [3]. - The Shandong (non-Jingbo) asphalt price remained at 3200 from 2/9 to 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. - The Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price remained at 3330 from 2/9 to 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. - The Foshan warehouse asphalt price remained at 3280 from 2/9 to 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. 3.4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 411 on 1/13 to 269 on 2/11, with a daily change of -31 [3]. 3.5. Weekly Changes - The weekly changes of various indicators are as follows: -104, -54, -54, -9, -7, 9, 34, -42033, -18419, 0, 1.8, -60, -70, -20, -20, -109 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views of the Report - The LPG futures market showed a volatile decline this week mainly due to the fall in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas). The 3 - 4 month spread was -303 (-9), and the warehouse receipts increased by 1035 to 6902 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil gas at 4150 (+30). The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates rose. The actual landed cost oscillated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread widened to -44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22% (mainly in East China), refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. Overall, the internal basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil gas, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The outer market is still tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical and cold wave factors are still crucial and need continuous attention [1] Summary According to the Catalog Daily Data - From February 4 to February 10, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil changed. The daily changes on February 10 were -15, 0, 20, 2, 2, 4, 80, 0 respectively for these items. The paper import profit decreased by 24, and the main basis decreased by 57 [1] Daily Views - On Tuesday, the 3 - 4 month spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at -297 (+50) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 91 (+1). Warehouse receipts changed with Shanghai Yuchi +5 and Haiyu Petrochemical -175. LPG spot prices stabilized with a slight downward adjustment expected. The cheapest deliverable was Shanghai Gaoqiao civil gas at 4150, with a basis of -122. Domestic spot prices were generally stable. The mainstream transaction price in East China was 4150 - 4800, and refineries shipped stably before the festival. Shandong civil gas prices continued to rise, with the mainstream price at 4400 - 4530. With the approaching Spring Festival, there was an expectation of a decline under increased supply. The mainstream price of ether - post carbon four rose, and the low - supply situation led to smooth sales [1] Weekly Views - The futures market oscillated down this week. The basis strengthened, the 3 - 4 month spread decreased, and warehouse receipts increased. The outer - market paper cargo month spread increased, and the oil - gas ratio oscillated. The internal and external market weakened. Freight rates rose, and the actual landed cost oscillated weakly. PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity, ship arrivals, and refinery storage capacity decreased, while external sales increased. Chemical demand increased, and the PDH operating rate rose. The temperature was still low with fair rigid demand for combustion. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end, and it is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, with factories focusing on inventory clearance. The internal basis is still weak, the decline space of civil gas may be limited before the festival, the 3 - 4 month spread is neutrally valued, and the outer market is still tight in the short term [1]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Summary Futures Data - On February 9, the closing price of the BR main contract was 12,810, up 20 from the previous day and down 375 week - on - week [4] - The position was 27,608, up 331 from the previous day and down 9,713 week - on - week [4] - The trading volume was 174,314, down 30,875 from the previous day and down 103,781 week - on - week [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 32,270, up 100 from the previous day and up 4,380 week - on - week [4] - The long - short ratio was 4.28, unchanged from the previous day and down 2 week - on - week [4] Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene - styrene basis was 190, down 70 from the previous day and up 175 week - on - week [4] - The 02 - 03 spread was - 255, down 270 from the previous day and down 60 week - on - week [4] - The 03 - 04 spread was - 15, up 40 from the previous day and up 45 week - on - week [4] - The RU - BR spread was 3435, up 145 from the previous day and up 440 week - on - week [4] - The NR - BR spread was 340, up 80 from the previous day and up 430 week - on - week [4] Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 12,500, down 200 from the previous day and down 300 week - on - week [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 12,600, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 12,800, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1700, up 75 from the previous day and up 75 week - on - week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 1850, up 25 from the previous day and up 25 week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The spot processing profit was - 382, down 328 from the previous day and down 224 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was - 1294, down 756 from the previous day and down 842 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was 1297, up 318 from the previous day and up 392 week - on - week [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data Summary Spot and Price Data - The Shandong market price was 10,475, up 125 from the previous day and down 75 week - on - week [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 10,300, up 50 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 10,300, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week [4] - CFR China was 1270, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [4] Profit Data - The ethylene cracking profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The C4 extraction profit data on February 9 was N/A [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 1780, up 100 from the previous day and down 130 week - on - week [4] - The import profit was 215, up 74 from the previous day and down 166 week - on - week [4] - The export profit was - 804, down 63 from the previous day and up 2090 week - on - week [4] Production Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 900, up 38 from the previous day and up 188 week - on - week [4] - The ABS production profit data after February 5 was N/A [4] - The SBS production profit was - 860, up 45 from the previous day and up 185 week - on - week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6777, with a daily decline of 2.04%, the trading volume was 635,809, and the position decreased by 6,547 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 yesterday, compared with - 188 the day before; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was - 51 yesterday, compared with - 57 the day before [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: The spot price of North China was 6,630 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 6,730 yuan/ton the day before; East China was 6,780 yuan/ton, down from 6,880 yuan/ton; South China was 6,790 yuan/ton, down from 6,950 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The futures price has corrected, the upstream's previous inventory has been transferred, enterprise quotes remain stable, and agency orders and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the standard product production schedule is neutral [1]. - Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The foreign - market offer has increased, and there is a shortage of LL supplies. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased significantly. Downstream factories are mostly cautiously waiting and watching. It is expected that the intensifying geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US - dollar market [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On February 4, the LPG night - market fluctuated lower. The 03 - 04 spread was - 290 (- 25), and the 03 basis was - 110 (calculated using Shanghai civilian price of 4100). The external market FEI rose 5 dollars to 533, and CP increased 3 dollars to 533, with the number of warehouse receipts unchanged [1]. - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose with crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - sentiment disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). The cheapest deliverable was East China civilian gas at 4418 (+ 46). There were 5867 warehouse receipts (- 31), with 31 less from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price was in line with expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+ 20/+ 20). FEI spread fluctuated, while CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (- 17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (- 8). Freight rates rose significantly due to North American cold snaps delaying loading operations and supply - demand tightness, along with high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense Iranian situation. The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+ 6); AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11). China's PDH propylene production profit strengthened significantly, with the latest at - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct). Geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the domestic LPG futures sentiment. However, domestic downstream profits are poor, and there is pre - holiday inventory reduction, so the spot price support is weak. The domestic basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral. Follow - up attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Day - to - day Data - From January 29 to February 4, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and主力基差 had different changes. For example, on February 4 compared to the previous day, South China LPG decreased by 15, East China LPG remained unchanged, Shandong LPG decreased by 10, propane CFR South China increased by 11, etc [1]. Day - to - day View - On February 4, the LPG night - market fluctuated lower. The 03 - 04 spread was - 290 (- 25), and the 03 basis was - 110 (calculated using Shanghai civilian price of 4100). The external market FEI rose 5 dollars to 533, and CP increased 3 dollars to 533, with the number of warehouse receipts unchanged [1]. Weekly View - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose with crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - sentiment disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (- 32), the 03 - 04 spread was - 294 (- 16), - 203 (- 8). The cheapest deliverable was East China civilian gas at 4418 (+ 46). There were 5867 warehouse receipts (- 31), with 31 less from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price was in line with expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+ 20/+ 20). FEI spread fluctuated, while CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (- 17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (- 8). Freight rates rose significantly due to North American cold snaps delaying loading operations and supply - demand tightness, along with high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense Iranian situation. The East China propane arrival premium was 91 (+ 6); AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 19.25 (- 16.75), - 15 (- 35), 46.89 (- 15.6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (- 11). China's PDH propylene production profit strengthened significantly, with the latest at - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). PDH operating rate was 60.72% (- 1.53pct). Geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the domestic LPG futures sentiment. However, domestic downstream profits are poor, and there is pre - holiday inventory reduction, so the spot price support is weak. The domestic basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral. Follow - up attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term, with attention needed on the February cold snap in the US and the Iranian situation [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - No relevant content Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -4 on 1/6 to -31 on 2/4, with a daily change of -12 [3] - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from 6 on 1/6 to -11 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -14 on 1/6 to -61 on 2/4, with a daily change of -2 [3] - The 03 - 06 spread changed from 10 on 1/6 to 2 on 2/4, with a daily change of -3 [3] - The 04 - 06 spread was 8 on 2/4, with no daily change [3] - The 06 - 09 spread changed from 15 on 1/6 to 23 on 2/4, with a daily change of 4 [3] 2. Futures Contracts - The BU main contract price was 3361 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 52 [3] - The trading volume was 282,920 on 2/4, a decrease of 20,689 (-33%) compared to the previous day [3] - The open interest was 387,150 on 2/4, a decrease of 6% compared to the previous day [3] - The combined volume was 13,580 on 2/4, with no change [3] 3. Spot Market - Brent crude oil price was 67.0 on 2/4, with a daily increase of 0.8 [3] - Jingbo's asphalt price was 3260 on 2/4, with no change [3] - The non-Jingbo Shandong asphalt price was 3250 on 2/4, an increase of 40 [3] - The Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price was 3350 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] - The Foshan warehouse asphalt price was 3300 on 2/4, an increase of 50 [3] 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit was 405 on 2/4, a decrease of 35 compared to the previous day [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 4, 2026 [4] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - No information provided Group 4: Basis and Spread - Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) changed from -52 on 12/31 to -19 on 2/3, with a daily change of -40 [3] - East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) changed from -82 on 12/31 to -9 on 2/3, with a daily change of -10 [3] - South China basis (Foshan warehouse) changed from -122 on 12/31 to -29 on 2/3, with a daily change of -50 [3] - 03 - 06 spread changed from -23 on 12/31 to 5 on 2/3, with a daily change of -10 [3] - 04 - 06 spread changed from -20 on 12/31 to 8 on 2/3, with a daily change of 8 [3] - 06 - 09 spread changed from 5 on 12/31 to 19 on 2/3, with a daily change of -6 [3] Group 5: Futures Contracts - BU main contract price was 3022 on 12/31 and 3309 on 2/3, with a daily change of 10 [3] - Trading volume decreased from 311,277 on 12/31 to 303,609 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 242,358 [3] - Open interest decreased from 426,006 on 12/31 to 381,498 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 16,182 [3] - Aggregate contracts remained at 13,580 from 1/28 to 2/3 [3] Group 6: Spot Prices - Brent crude price was 66.5 on 1/28 and 66.1 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 4.6 [3] - Jingbo spot price was 2980 on 12/31 and 3260 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 20 [3] - Shandong (non-Jingbo) spot price was 2890 on 12/31 and 3210 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 30 [3] - Zhenjiang warehouse spot price remained at 3300 from 2/2 to 2/3 [3] - Foshan warehouse spot price was 2900 on 12/31 and 3250 on 2/3, a daily decrease of 40 [3] Group 7: Profits - Asphalt Ma Rui profit was N/A on 12/31 and 440 on 2/3, a daily increase of 199 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The geopolitical risk is not over, and the rising external prices support the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures. However, the domestic downstream profit is poor, and there is inventory reduction before the festival, so the support for spot prices is weak. The domestic basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is slightly on the high side, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the February cold wave in the US and the development of the Iranian situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed different degrees of change. The daily change on February 3 compared with the previous day was -10 for South China LPG, 0 for East China LPG and Shandong LPG, -3 for propane CFR South China, -8 for propane CIF Japan, 2 for CP forecast contract price, -10 for Shandong ether - after carbon four, -20 for Shandong alkylated oil, 18 for paper import profit, and -39 for the main basis [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Monday, the market fluctuated upward. The cheapest spot, Shanghai Gaoqiao, was 4120, with a basis of -89. The 03 - 04 spread was -260 (+24), the 03 - 05 spread was -176 (+14), and the 04 - 05 spread was 84 (-10). The warehouse receipts of Wuchan Zhongda Chemical increased by 1000 [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16), and the 03 - 05 spread was -203 (-8). The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). There were 5867 warehouse receipts (-31), with 31 fewer from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external relationship weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold wave and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the recent tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts for AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53 pct) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31). The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. For example, the South China LPG price increased from 4840 to 4870, with a daily change of 30. The paper import profit changed from 54 to -40, with a daily change of 137 [1] Daily Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market fell significantly, following the oil price and the external market. The 03 - 04 spread was -284 (-2), the 03 - 05 spread was -190 (-12), and the 04 - 05 spread was 94 (-13). As of 10:30 p.m. on Monday, FEI and CP were 523.25 and 525.75 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31), with 31 lots reduced from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1]

2 0 2 6 年 2 月 1 光期研究 2 0 2 6年2月P X & P T A & M E G 策略报告 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S PX&PTA&MEG：弱现实与强预期博弈 p 2 | 目 录 | | --- | | 1、PX&PTA&MEG价格：地缘扰动原油价格 | | 2、PX&PTA&MEG供应情况：装置变动不大 | | 3、PX&PTA&MEG进出口情况：印度BIS认证取消 | | 4、PX&PTA&MEG库存情况：下游产成品低利润低库存 | | 5、聚酯需求情况：终端需求面临考验 | | 6、PX&PTA&MEG持仓情况 | p 3 1.1 价格： PX&PTA&MEG期货价格 图表：PTA主力期货收盘价（单位：元/吨） 图表：MEG主力期货收盘价（元/吨） 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000 5200 5400 5600 PTA 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 4700 4900 2025-01 2025-02 2025-03 2025-04 ...