策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 由守转攻，布局高景气方向等风起 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 华宝证券 1/9 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 企稳 —策略周报》2025-11-23 2、《沪指围绕 4000 点震荡整固，轮动 有所加快 —策略周报》2025-11-09 3、《波动再度放大，如何应对？ —策略 周报》2025-10-12 4、《长假期间国内外大事一览—策略周 报》2025-10-09 5、《节前波动有所放大，持股还是持币 过节？ —策略周报》2025-09-29 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】年末仍有扰动，静待利空落地。年末多重因素仍可能限制债市 表现，银行负债端成本管理加强，导致资产端通过拉长久期的诉求减弱；同时 年末机构卖出获利老券兑现利润需求提升，也削弱了往年的"抢配"行情；此 外 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, indicating a resurgence in market enthusiasm and a rise in the net value of many actively managed equity funds [1] - The "Double Ten" fund managers, defined as those with over ten years of management experience and an annualized return exceeding 10%, have proven to be resilient in various market conditions [1] Fund Manager Performance - The top ten "Double Ten" fund managers include notable figures from mid-sized fund companies, such as Jin Zicai from Caitong Fund and Mo Haibo from Wanji Fund, showcasing their strong performance over the years [1][2] - Jin Zicai's Caitong Value Momentum Fund and Mo Haibo's Wanji Quality Life Fund have demonstrated strong offensive capabilities during bull markets while maintaining a maximum drawdown of around 20% during market corrections, reflecting good risk management [2][3] Annualized Returns - The annualized returns for the top fund managers in 2025 show Caitong Value Momentum A at 63.10% and Wanji Quality Life A at 61.63%, indicating robust performance in the current year [3] - Historical performance data reveals significant fluctuations, with Caitong Value Momentum A achieving a return of 70.96% in 2019 and a decline of -23.09% in 2023, while Wanji Quality Life A had a peak return of 35.04% in 2021 [3] Long-Term Management - Zhu Shaoxing from Fortune Fund exemplifies long-term management, having managed the Fortune Tianhui Growth Mixed Fund since 2005, maintaining an annualized return of over 15% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental industry [10]. Core Insights - The environmental sector's heavy positions in public funds have decreased, with the top ten holdings totaling approximately 5.438 billion yuan, accounting for 0.13% of all disclosed fund stock holdings, a decrease of 0.10 percentage points from the previous quarter [2][4][18]. - The A-share environmental sector is currently underweight, with a standard allocation ratio of 0.94% as of the end of Q3 2025 [4][18]. - The report highlights three investment styles in the environmental sector for Q3: market hot themes, absolute returns, and marginal changes [7][33]. Summary by Sections Fund Holdings - As of Q3 2025, the top heavy positions in public funds include Shanghai Xiba (0.91 billion yuan), Huanlan Environment (0.82 billion yuan), and Weiming Environmental (0.63 billion yuan) [5][29]. - The number of funds holding significant positions in leading companies reflects market attention, with Huanlan Environment leading with 59 funds [5][23]. Market Trends - The report notes a shift towards solid battery-related stocks and waste incineration leaders, indicating a growing market risk appetite [7][33]. - The environmental sector is experiencing a transition from government to business (ToB) and consumer (ToC) models, which is expected to improve cash flow and valuation recovery [19][35]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with long-term value in waste incineration and water assets, such as Huanlan Environment, Guangda Environment, and Weiming Environmental [8][36]. - It emphasizes the importance of detecting service companies and environmental sanitation firms, highlighting potential growth in these areas [43]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the environmental sector's performance metrics are currently at historical lows, with a notable decline in heavy positions due to market concerns over subsidy adjustments and economic pressures [19][33]. - The report also discusses the potential for valuation recovery as companies explore new growth avenues and improve operational cash flows [19][35].

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0% in October, down 0.8 percentage points from September and matching the level seen in April 2025, during peak US-China trade tensions[1] - Production and new orders were the largest contributors to the decline, dragging down the PMI by 0.55 and 0.27 percentage points, respectively[1] - The manufacturing prices decreased, with raw material purchase prices and factory prices both dropping by 0.7 percentage points to 52.5% and 47.5%, respectively[2] Service Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly rebounded to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, but new orders fell by 0.7 percentage points to 46.0%[3] - The gap between the business activity index and new orders widened to 4.2, the highest since October 2024, indicating persistent demand weakness[3] Construction Sector - The construction sector saw new orders rebound by 3.7 percentage points to 45.9%, marking the second consecutive month of increase, although the business activity index fell slightly to 49.1%[4] - The rebound in construction PMI was primarily driven by civil engineering projects related to infrastructure, with business activity index rising over 5 percentage points to above 55%[4] Economic Outlook - The overall composite PMI for October was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from September, the lowest since early 2023[5] - The need for monetary policy support is increasing as the economy shows signs of continued slowdown, with GDP growth at 4.8% in Q3[5] Policy Measures - In October, significant policy measures were implemented, including the rapid deployment of 500 billion yuan in policy development financial tools and the resumption of government bond trading[6] - The likelihood of further monetary easing, including potential rate cuts, is rising, with expectations for a possible reduction in reserve requirements and structural interest rate cuts[6] Market Implications - The liquidity-driven bull market characteristics remain evident, with a lack of momentum for a shift towards cyclical and consumer sectors, suggesting continued focus on technology and dividend stocks[7] - Structural risks persist, with high transaction concentration and elevated stock prices, indicating an increased probability of market volatility[7]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year" plan has been released, which is expected to enhance market risk appetite in the short term due to increased policy clarity [1] - The long-term vision of the "14th Five-Year" plan outlines a modern industrial system blueprint, providing a clear growth path for A-shares, potentially solidifying the foundation for a bull market through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [1] Group 2 - Key industries to focus on include AI, semiconductors, robotics, batteries, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, machinery, military industry, social services, and large finance [1]

Group 1 - Market sentiment has cooled since October, but has not stalled; recent days show signs of stabilization [1][2] - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in the growth sector, which saw a decline of around 10% [2] - The overall market trading volume has decreased from a peak of 3.2 trillion to approximately 1.66 trillion, indicating a near 50% reduction [2] Group 2 - Recent signals indicate a thaw in US-China relations, with Trump expressing a willingness to communicate and new trade negotiations underway [3] - The US dollar index rose by 0.4%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has been released, emphasizing the importance of building a modern industrial system and enhancing policy clarity, which is expected to boost market risk appetite [4] - The plan outlines a clear growth path for A-shares through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades, with key sectors to focus on including AI, chips, robotics, batteries, innovative drugs, non-ferrous metals, machinery, military industry, social services, and large finance [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the market, particularly after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high above 3900 points, have prompted discussions on investment strategies for the fourth quarter, focusing on sectors like AI, non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][2]. Group 1: AI Sector - The long-term logic of the AI sector remains solid despite recent adjustments, providing a favorable valuation window for investment [2]. - Investment in AI is primarily focused on computing power and application, with significant attention on demand from major clients like Nvidia and Google, as well as the impact of North American electricity supply on investment [2][3]. - The AI application landscape is evolving, with large models absorbing many functionalities, indicating that leading internet companies with advanced models and computing power are more favorable for investment [3]. Group 2: Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is characterized as "cyclical growth," driven by energy transition, defense spending, and AI demand, moving it away from traditional real estate and infrastructure ties [3]. - The current economic cycle is at a strategic low, with expectations of a recovery starting by the end of this year or early next year, lasting approximately two years [3]. Group 3: Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is transitioning from a phase of broad increases to a focus on selective stock picking, with particular interest in areas such as immunotherapy, oral GLP-1 drugs, and long-acting ophthalmic medications [4]. - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are becoming preferred partners for multinational firms due to their clinical efficiency and domestic market support [4]. Group 4: New Generation Fund Managers - New generation fund managers emphasize the importance of identifying structural opportunities in new technologies and consumption trends, particularly in the renewable energy and storage sectors [5]. - The solid-state battery industry and advancements in photovoltaic technology are highlighted as key areas of investment due to their potential for significant returns [5]. Group 5: Balanced Investment Strategy - A balanced investment strategy is recommended to navigate market volatility, focusing on growth and valuation equilibrium, investment duration balance, and diverse sources of investment opportunities [8][9]. - Key sectors for investment include energy storage and electrical equipment, driven by increasing demand for renewable energy and favorable economic conditions [9]. Group 6: Specific Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should include a "barbell" approach, combining defensive assets with growth sectors, particularly in financials and power equipment [10]. - Structural opportunities in consumer sectors, especially those catering to younger demographics and emerging consumer trends, are also highlighted as areas of potential growth [10][11]. Group 7: Overall Market Outlook - The overall market outlook suggests that despite challenges such as US-China trade tensions and structural shifts in industries, the fundamental logic of global easing and domestic new momentum remains intact [13]. - Investment focus should be on sectors with global competitiveness, such as energy storage, electrical equipment, and consumer electronics, while being mindful of valuation and policy changes [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies and opportunities in the context of recent market fluctuations, particularly after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high, emphasizing the importance of a balanced investment approach in the face of volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities in Key Sectors - The article highlights three major sectors: AI, non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals, asserting that their long-term investment logic remains solid despite recent adjustments [3][5]. - AI investments are focused on computing power and applications, with a notable emphasis on the demand from major clients like NVIDIA and Google, as well as the energy constraints affecting computing investments [3][4]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is characterized as "cyclical growth," driven by energy transition, defense spending, and AI, indicating a shift from traditional industries to growth-oriented sectors [4]. Group 2: Insights from Emerging Fund Managers - Emerging fund managers emphasize the importance of new technologies and consumption trends, identifying structural opportunities in the new economy [6][7]. - The renewable energy sector is expected to experience a "profit inflection point" and technological breakthroughs, particularly in energy storage and solid-state battery technology [6]. - The AI sector is seen as a catalyst for a "productivity revolution," with significant advancements in efficiency across various industries, including gaming and customer service [7]. Group 3: Balanced Investment Strategies - The article advocates for a balanced investment strategy to navigate market volatility, focusing on growth and valuation equilibrium, investment duration balance, and diverse sources of investment opportunities [9][10]. - Key areas for investment include energy storage and power equipment, driven by the increasing demand for renewable energy and grid upgrades [10][11]. - The article also notes the importance of technological advancements, such as improvements in photovoltaic technology, which are expected to enhance profitability in the solar industry [11]. Group 4: Specific Investment Recommendations - The article suggests a "barbell strategy" for portfolio allocation, combining defensive and growth assets, particularly in sectors like finance and power equipment [14]. - It highlights structural opportunities in consumer sectors, particularly those catering to younger demographics and emerging consumer trends [14][15]. - The military industry is identified as a growth area, with increasing demand for military exports and the importance of data capabilities in modern warfare [15][16]. Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - The article concludes that despite the challenges posed by U.S.-China trade tensions and structural shifts in the economy, the overarching themes of global easing and domestic new momentum remain intact [16]. - Investors are encouraged to adopt a long-term perspective, focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals and avoiding short-term speculative behaviors [16].

Company Insights - Apple's stock price surged nearly 4%, reaching a historical high, driven by the strong sales of the iPhone 17 series, which saw a 14% increase in sales compared to the previous generation within the first 10 days of launch in China and the US [1] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) reported a Q3 revenue of 104.186 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, and a net profit of 18.549 billion, up 41.21% year-on-year, with high capacity utilization and strong demand in both domestic and international markets [2] - iFlytek announced a net profit growth of 202.4% year-on-year for Q3 [14] - China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation expects a net profit increase of 104.30%-126.39% year-on-year for the first three quarters [14] - Alloy Investment reported a staggering net profit growth of 4985% year-on-year for Q3 [14] Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for key enterprises in the cement industry to strictly implement capacity replacement policies and to develop plans for excess capacity by the end of 2025 [3] - The human-shaped robot industry is expected to enter mass production next year, driven by leading domestic and international companies, with a focus on component manufacturers benefiting from this trend [10] - The automotive sector is seeing increased demand for smart electric vehicles, with a significant market growth potential for in-car displays as part of smart cockpit configurations [11] - Baidu is set to launch AI glasses next month, with expectations of global shipments reaching 5.5 million units by 2025 and a compound annual growth rate of 144% from 2024 to 2027 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's export growth is entering a new phase in 2024-2025, with an overall high growth rate expected, driven by various factors including fiscal expansion in developed economies and increased global demand for new industrial products [2][5][6]. Export Growth Analysis - In September, China's exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year, maintaining a high level, with a month-on-month growth of 2.1%, consistent with seasonal averages [3][5]. - The third quarter saw a year-on-year export growth of 6.6%, aligning with expectations, despite a seasonal low of 1.0% month-on-month [5]. - For the fourth quarter, a simple calculation suggests a year-on-year growth of 3.6% if the month-on-month growth aligns with the seasonal average [5]. Historical Context - From 2000 to 2011, China's export growth averaged 21.8%, significantly outpacing global export growth of 11.0% [6]. - The period from 2012 to 2019 saw a decline in China's export growth, averaging only 3.7%, while global export growth was around 0.7% [7]. - The years 2020 to 2023 experienced high volatility in exports, with China’s growth fluctuating in response to global supply chain disruptions [7]. Future Projections - In 2024, global exports are projected to grow by 2.3%, while China's exports are expected to grow by 5.8% [8]. - The article predicts that in 2024-2025, China's export growth will exceed global growth by more than double, driven by factors such as fiscal policies in developed countries and increased demand for high-tech products [6]. Regional Export Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN and Africa have shown significant growth, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 14.7% and 28.3% respectively in the first nine months of the year [10]. - Exports to Africa have been particularly strong, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% in September [10]. Product Export Performance - High-end product exports are experiencing substantial growth, with exports of integrated circuits increasing by 32.7% and general machinery by 24.9% [11]. - In contrast, labor-intensive products like textiles and clothing have seen a decline in exports, with a combined year-on-year decrease of 5.8% [11]. Import Trends - In September, imports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in iron ore, copper, and integrated circuits [12]. - The acceleration in imports may be linked to policy-driven financial tools and project initiations, indicating potential improvements in investment for the fourth quarter [12].