Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12]. Core Views - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cut cycle [12]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight [12]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 6.3% increase over one month, 8.6% over three months, and 16.7% over twelve months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][21]. Gold Market - The average gold price in London was $3,331.90 per ounce, up 1.83% from the previous week [32]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 230,000 ounces to 30.47 million ounces [33]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,880 per ton, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 79,990 yuan per ton, a 0.11% decrease [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 131,800 tons, a 0.17% increase from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum price was 20,750 yuan per ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin price was 267,820 yuan per ton, down 0.88% from the previous week [43]. - LME tin inventory decreased by 65 tons to 2,110 tons [43]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot price was 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% from the previous week [43]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Xiyang Silver Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普跌 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜继续减仓下行，主力期价逼近 7.9 万关口。宏观层面， 商品市场氛围自上周五转冷，有色和黑色普跌。产业层面，随着铜 价上行，下游观望意愿上升，本周一电解铜社库上升明显。短期宏 观冷却，产业采购意愿下降，多头持续了结，关注 7.9 万一线支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓下行明显，主力期价下挫至 2.04 万一线。宏观层 面，商品市场氛围自上周五转冷，有色和黑色普跌。产业层面，下游 进入淡季叠加畏高情绪，Mystee ...

| | 20250707申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝： 可能窄幅震荡为主 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收平。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | 铜 | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收跌。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 铝：夜盘沪 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属双周报 2025 年 07 月 07 日 [Table_Title] 新能源金属反弹，受供给端钴价持续上涨 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数上涨 6.19% 近 2 周（2025.6.20-2025.7.04），有色金属行业指数上涨 6.19%，跑 赢沪深 300 指数，在 31 个申万一级行业中排名第 7。从细分领域看， 能源金属（8.28%）、工业金属（8.09%）涨幅居前，小金属和金属新 材料分别增长 4.27%、4.14%，而贵金属则小幅下跌-0.53%。 金属价格:白银价格继续保持增长势头，钴价持续上涨 截至 7 月 4 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3336 美元/盎司，近 2 周下跌 1.43%；COMEX 银收盘价为 37.04 美元/盎司，近 2 周上涨 3.03%； LME 锡现价 33,585 美元/吨，近两周上涨 3.95%；沪锡现价 268,404 元/吨，近两周下跌 1.97%；65%黑钨精矿现价 173,000 元/吨，近两 周上涨 0.58 ...

有色金属套利周报20250707 研究员：张杰夫 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号:Z0016959 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Email：zhangjf@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 套利策略 | | 品 种 | 策 | 略 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 国内需求进入淡季 订单量减少 铝棒开始 ， 。 累库 社库拐点临近 铝价有冲高回落的风 | | 跨 期 | 铝 | 反 | 套 | ， ， 险 而淡季结束后 需求有望重新为铝价提 。 ， | | | | | | 供支撑 建议逢低滚动参与铝的跨期反套 ， 。 | | | | | | 国内精炼锌产出明显恢复 年内全球新投产 ， | | 跨品种 | 铝&锌 | 多铝空锌 | | 锌矿项目有望逐步释放增量 而铝社库偏低 ， | | | | | | 对价格存有支撑 基本面强于锌 建议逢低 ， ， | | | | | | 滚动参与多铝空锌 。 | 2 第一部分：周度价格表现回顾与资金流动情况 第二部分 ...

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/07/07 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17025 2038 8.35 三月 17305 2063 10.82 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.82 -950.80 跨期套利跟踪 2025/07/07 铜 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -1050 -1220 -1490 -1730 理论价差 506 910 1323 1736 锌 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 25 -35 -100 -165 理论价差 215 336 457 578 铝 次月-现货月 三月-现货月四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 -235 -305 -380 -480 理论价差 215 332 448 564 铅 次月-现货月 三月-现货 月 四月-现货月 五月-现货月 价差 40 50 45 55 理论价差 211 319 426 533 镍 次月-现货月 三月-现货月 四月-现货 月 五月-现货月 价差 630 720 830 1000 锡 5-1 价差 310 理论价差 5522 期现套利跟踪 2025/07/07 铜 当月合约-现货 次月 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/07 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/30 130 1559 81550 25851 -1666.99 249.33 30.0 50.0 181.69 90625 32925 2025/07/01 200 1759 81550 24773 -1085.77 219.08 30.0 48.0 116.30 91250 31975 2025/07/02 125 1917 81550 25097 -740.05 287.80 30.0 48.0 96.20 93250 31900 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 变化 -5 -23 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in the prices of copper and other non-ferrous metals, driven by tight supply and increased demand, with copper prices recently surpassing $10,000 per ton, marking a three-month high [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal index has seen a cumulative increase of 8.74% over the past month, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industry indices, indicating strong market interest in this sector [1] - Factors contributing to the copper price surge include a sharp decline in LME copper inventory to 90,000 tons, the lowest in 22 months, and concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on copper imports, which have led traders to stockpile copper [1] Group 2 - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has also supported prices for copper and aluminum, while cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo extending its export ban [2] - Multiple institutions believe the non-ferrous metal industry may be at a turning point, with changes in macroeconomic conditions, such as a shift towards "stabilizing growth" in domestic policies and the onset of a new Fed rate cut cycle, likely to improve capital expenditure and financing costs [4] - The non-ferrous metal sector is currently experiencing a phase of supply-demand mismatch, profit recovery, and expectations of liquidity easing, with various factors supporting price stability [4] Group 3 - Specific segments of the non-ferrous metal market, such as gold, copper, and aluminum, are recommended for attention due to their potential for growth and recovery in demand driven by economic improvements [4][5] - The strategic value of rare metals like rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and bismuth is increasingly recognized, alongside the promising applications of emerging materials like graphene and carbon fiber in high-end industries [5]

【解读】基金经理解读有色板块投资机会 中国基金报记者 张燕北 孙晓辉 有色金属板块近期涨幅领先市场，各类金属亦相继 " 起舞 " 。 继黄金、白银、铂金等贵金属价格 " 狂飙 " 后， " 铜博士 " 也迎来爆发式行情。本周国际 铜价突破三个月新高，伦敦金属交易所（ LME ）铜期货价格一度升破每吨 10000 美元，创 三个月新高。 二级市场方面，受商品铜价飙升催化，有色金属板块接连几周涨幅领先市场。 业内机构表示，伦敦铜价再度逼近年内高位，主因是交易商们持续将铜运往美国，试图在特 朗普上调关税的最后期限到来前备货。尽管本周铜价自高位有所回调，但当前支撑铜价的一 些基本面因素仍然存在。随着全球经济复苏的推进，有色金属的需求有望持续增长。 短期催化与宏观周期因素 驱动有色 " 起舞 " Wind 数据显示，有色金属指数近一个月涨幅达 8.74% ，在 31 个申万行业指数中位列第 二。 在业内机构看来，有色金属板块近期的上涨，既有短期催化，也有宏观周期因素的推动。 华 夏基金 认为， 直接的催化是商品铜价格飙升 。本周 LME 铜库存降至 9 万吨，创 2023 年 8 月以来 22 个月新低，导致铜价逼仓式 ...

Group 1 - India announced measures to boost copper production, including encouraging foreign companies to build smelting and refining plants in exchange for investments in overseas mining operations by state-owned enterprises [1] - As the world's second-largest refined copper importer, India's copper concentrate imports are projected to reach 91%-97% by 2047, highlighting the necessity of acquiring overseas assets [1] - The government document indicates that while India has an estimated 12.2 million tons of copper resources, only 18% is classified as reserves, emphasizing the limited domestic supply [1] Group 2 - The demand for concentrate imports is increasing, indicating the need for supply diversification and foreign asset acquisitions, necessitating strategic interventions to support the industry [1] - India plans to promote foreign investments from companies like Codelco and BHP, focusing on establishing dedicated copper chapters in free trade agreement negotiations with Chile and Peru [1] - The document states that copper supply from major exporting countries like Indonesia and Panama is tightening, reducing India's import options, as Chile and Peru have long-term contractual relationships with global buyers like Japan and China [1] Group 3 - In the fiscal year ending March 2025, India imported 1.2 million tons of copper, a 4% increase year-on-year, with copper demand expected to reach 3-3.3 million tons by 2030 and 8.9-9.8 million tons by 2047 [1] - Short-term focus includes providing financial support for the construction of scrap metal processing facilities [1] - Long-term, India needs to provide financial support for the establishment of new 4-5 million metric tons per annum (MMTPA) smelting and refining capacity [2] Group 4 - India should promote tax-free imports of high-capacity mining and beneficiation equipment [2] - The government document also indicates plans to increase aluminum production, with domestic aluminum demand expected to reach 8.5 million tons by the fiscal year 2030 [2]