Copper Market Overview - LME copper price increased by 3.17% to $10,947.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.95% to ¥87,700 per ton [1] - Import copper concentrate processing fee index dropped to -$42.7 per ton, indicating supply pressure [1] - National copper inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 181.6 thousand tons, primarily due to lower import and domestic supply [1] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 57.7%, with a slight expected decrease next week [1] - Domestic copper wire and cable enterprises' operating rate was 62.34%, showing a minor increase but overall demand remains weak [1] Aluminum Market Overview - LME aluminum price rose by 2.75% to $2,856.50 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum increased by 1.51% to ¥21,200 per ton [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply [2] - Despite high operational capacity in alumina production, the overall supply remains excessive, leading to expectations of continued price declines [2] - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises recorded at 62.4%, showing stability but with internal differentiation [2] Gold Market Overview - COMEX gold price decreased by 5.66% to $4,126.9 per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks [3] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 11.73 tons to 1,046.93 tons, reflecting market sentiment [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has disrupted key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [3] Rare Earth Market Overview - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide price decreased by 1.35%, aligning with previous expectations of price fluctuations [4] - The outlook for overseas replenishment is positive, with potential price increases anticipated [4] - The strategic importance of rare earths is highlighted, with a bullish view on companies like China Rare Earth, Guangxi Chaozhou, and others [4] Lithium and Cobalt Market Overview - Carbonate lithium price increased by 1.97% to ¥74,500 per ton, while hydroxide lithium rose by 0.15% to ¥78,300 per ton [5] - Cobalt prices surged by 7% to ¥407,500 per ton, indicating strong demand in the market [5] - Nickel prices saw a slight increase, with LME nickel price at $15,300 per ton [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3][4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations in the short term, driven by supply disruptions and ongoing negotiations between the US and China [4] - Aluminum prices are on the rise due to continuous inventory depletion, while the alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [4] - Lithium prices are recovering from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season, with a notable decrease in inventory [4] - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to the implementation of export quotas in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may tighten supply [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report indicates that the US CPI for September was lower than expected, which may influence market conditions [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the non-ferrous sector increased by 1.13%, underperforming the index by 1.75 percentage points [11][12] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous sector is 27.27, with a weekly change of 0.68, while the PB is 3.17, reflecting a 0.09 change [21][24] 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.61% in London and 3.95% in Shanghai, with inventories decreasing [26] - Aluminum prices rose by 2.78% in London and 1.14% in Shanghai, with a notable increase in aluminum enterprise profits [36] - Lead and zinc prices also saw increases, with lead prices up by 2.00% and zinc by 2.48% [47] - Lithium prices for lithium carbonate rose by 2.79% to 75,400 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 4.14% to 881 USD/ton [76] - Cobalt prices saw a significant increase, with MB cobalt rising by 7.75% to 22.60 USD/pound [89]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a mixed outlook for various metals, with specific attention to the strategic importance of rare earths and the impact of supply chain adjustments on prices [1][5]. Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [2]. - Domestic copper inventory rose by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [2]. - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises increased by 1.41 percentage points to 53.04%, with expectations for further increases next week [2]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [3]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [3]. - The operating rate for primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, influenced by demand release and unclear orders [3]. Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [4][5]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to the U.S. government shutdown and economic indicators reflecting a slowdown in employment growth [4][5]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89% this week, with China's control over rare earths being upgraded, enhancing the sector's strategic attributes [1][5]. - The implementation of the "Interim Measures" is expected to gradually show effects on supply adjustments [1][5]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the sector, highlighting companies like China Rare Earth, Guangsheng Nonferrous, and Northern Rare Earth [1][5]. Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering, indicating a potential price turning point [5]. - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant wires may boost demand for antimony [5]. Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16% due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mines, leading to supply disruptions [6]. - The report anticipates that tin prices will remain strong despite macroeconomic fluctuations [6]. Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [6]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices surged, with a 17.8% increase to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by rising demand and supply constraints [6]. Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the industry [7] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals industry index decreased by 0.63% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index, ranking 12th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Energy metals (up 4.49%) and industrial metals (up 1.05%) showed positive performance, while metal new materials (-4.08%), precious metals (-0.95%), and minor metals (-8.51%) experienced declines [2][14] Price Trends - As of September 26, 2025, COMEX gold closed at $3,789.80 per ounce, up 2.96% over two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $46.37 per ounce, up 8.63% [3][21] - LME copper settled at $10,125.50 per ton, increasing by 1.21% over two weeks; LME aluminum fell to $2,643 per ton, down 2.38% [3][20] - Cobalt prices surged, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 310,000 CNY per ton, up 13.55% over two weeks, and cobalt sulfate averaging 65,000 CNY per ton, up 20.82% [3][53] Major Events - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, has suspended operations due to a fatal landslide, significantly impacting global copper supply [4][59] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency awarded a contract to U.S. Antimony Corporation worth up to $245 million for supplying antimony metal [59][60] Investment Recommendations - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September, the report suggests focusing on investment opportunities that combine "resources + growth" themes, while monitoring geopolitical and export policy changes in major resource countries [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a positive trend in the non-ferrous metals sector, with significant increases in various metal prices and indices, indicating a robust market performance [1][2]. Market Overview - As of September 26, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.21% to 3828.11 points, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.07% to 4550.05 points. The SW Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index saw a notable increase of 3.52%, reaching 6752.28 points [1][2]. - Among the five sub-sectors of non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and precious metals experienced the highest increases at 5.15% and 5.55%, respectively, while minor metals and new materials saw slight declines [1][2]. Key Metal Price Data - Key metal prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange as of this week include: - Copper: 82,470 CNY/ton (+3.37%) - Aluminum: 20,745 CNY/ton (-0.36%) - Zinc: 21,980 CNY/ton (-0.36%) - Lead: 17,110 CNY/ton (-0.41%) - Nickel: 121,380 CNY/ton (-0.10%) - Tin: 274,070 CNY/ton (+1.94%) [3]. - Gold and silver prices also increased, with gold at 856.06 CNY/gram (+3.17%) and silver at 10,632 CNY/kilogram (+6.98%) [3]. - The COMEX prices for gold and silver were reported at 3,790 USD/ounce (+2.27%) and 46.37 USD/ounce (+7.95%), respectively [3]. Investment Recommendations - Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is expected to see a 4% reduction in copper sales for Q3 2025 due to an accident, with a significant production drop anticipated for 2026 [4]. - The accident at Grasberg is projected to lower global copper supply expectations for 2025 and 2026, potentially increasing copper prices during that period. Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]. - The Democratic Republic of Congo's new export quota policy will allow for a significant reduction in cobalt exports, leading to a projected supply shortage in 2026. Companies of interest include Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Tengyuan Cobalt [5].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the fluctuations in prices and production levels of various metals, including lithium, copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earth elements, indicating a mixed market sentiment influenced by supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and monetary policy changes [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Lithium and Cobalt - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.69% to 73,100 yuan/ton, while the average price of lithium hydroxide fell by 0.93% to 79,000 yuan/ton. The total production of lithium carbonate increased to 20,400 tons, up by 400 tons week-on-week [1][6]. - The price of cobalt increased by 0.7% to 275,000 yuan/ton, with cobalt intermediate prices rising by 2.3% to $14.45 per pound [6]. Group 2: Copper - LME copper prices fell by 0.68% to $9,996.50/ton, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.42% to 79,900 yuan/ton. The weekly copper inventory in major regions decreased by 5,300 tons to 148,900 tons due to reduced imports and domestic supply [2]. - The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises rose to 70.49%, a week-on-week increase of 2.96%, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling [2]. Group 3: Aluminum - LME aluminum prices dropped by 0.93% to $2,676.00/ton, and Shanghai aluminum prices fell by 1.54% to 20,800 yuan/ton. Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 tons week-on-week [3]. - The operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises slightly increased to 62.2%, although it still showed a year-on-year decline of 1.3% [3]. Group 4: Gold - COMEX gold prices remained unchanged at $3,719.40/oz, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 17.75 tons to 994.56 tons. The market is experiencing volatility due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [4][5]. Group 5: Rare Earths and Antimony - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide have started to recover, attributed to the implementation of new regulations and supply chain improvements. The export volume of magnetic materials surged in July, indicating potential for further price increases [5]. - Antimony demand is expected to rise due to new certification requirements for flame-retardant cables, alongside a global supply decline [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to fluctuations in copper prices, with a focus on demand during the peak season of September and October [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to a potential extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which could accelerate the depletion of raw material inventories [4] - Lithium prices are anticipated to rebound from the bottom as demand increases during the peak season [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. retail sales for August exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% [8] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the upper limit of the benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [8] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 4.02% compared to a 1.30% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [10] - The sector's PE_TTM valuation is 23.96, down by 0.80 from the previous week, while the PB_LF valuation is 2.87, down by 0.09 [19] 3. Copper - Copper prices saw a decline, with LME copper down 0.85% and SHFE copper down 1.42% [24] - Domestic copper inventories increased by 12.50%, indicating a potential oversupply [24] 4. Aluminum - Aluminum prices decreased, with LME aluminum down 0.43% and SHFE aluminum down 1.00% [35] - The aluminum industry is facing a profit margin squeeze, with profits down to 4,793 CNY/ton [35] 5. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 1.45% to 73,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices rose by 2.02% to 859 USD/ton [74] - The report indicates that lithium prices may have bottomed out and are expected to recover [74] 6. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt rising by 0.93% to 16.30 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices up by 1.84% to 277,000 CNY/ton [86] - The potential extension of the DRC's cobalt export ban could lead to a significant price rebound [86]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][32]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 31.62 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.6%, and a net profit of 1.87 billion yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year [5][6]. - The main profit source is Yulong Copper Industry, which generated a net profit of 3.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, contributing significantly to the company's overall profitability [5][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the copper price cycle, with a projected increase in copper production from the Yulong Copper Mine due to ongoing expansion projects [9][28]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 5.01 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.4% [5]. - The company’s revenue and net profit for Q2 2025 were 15.08 billion yuan and 1.06 billion yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.7% and 20.1% [5][6]. - The company forecasts net profits of 3.783 billion yuan, 4.686 billion yuan, and 5.689 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.0%, 23.9%, and 21.4% [28][30]. Production and Operations - Yulong Copper Mine produced 83,413 tons of copper and 2,525 tons of molybdenum in H1 2025, with a projected annual copper production exceeding 210,000 tons after expansion [6][7]. - The zinc smelting segment has turned profitable with a net profit of 5.79 million yuan in H1 2025, while copper smelting continues to face losses [9][28]. - The company is enhancing its recovery rates in copper smelting, with improvements of 3.3 percentage points in total recovery and 2.09 percentage points in electrolytic recovery [9].

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Baiyin Nonferrous is 3.32 yuan, up 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 735,745 hands and a transaction amount of 243 million yuan [1] - Baiyin Nonferrous is a key state-owned enterprise in Gansu Province, primarily engaged in the mining, smelting, processing, and trading of nonferrous metals such as copper, lead, and zinc [1] - The company plays a significant role in the nonferrous metal industry in Northwest China, with important positions in industrial chain layout and technological innovation [1] Group 2 - Gansu Province's state-owned enterprises have achieved significant results in technological innovation, with industrial R&D investment increasing by 11.99% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - Baiyin Nonferrous has five technological achievements that have reached international advanced levels and has led the establishment of the province's first copper industry chain party committee [1] - The company has made breakthroughs in key projects such as ultra-fine electromagnetic wire and lithium battery copper foil through a "chain thinking" approach to integrate party building with industry [1] Group 3 - On July 29, Baiyin Nonferrous saw a net inflow of main funds amounting to 4.5434 million yuan, accounting for 0.02% of its circulating market value, indicating an increase in market attention towards the company [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term due to mixed economic indicators from the US, with a recent decline in copper prices following lower-than-expected CPI data [5] - Aluminum prices are supported by continuous inventory depletion and tight spot supply, while alumina prices have seen a slight decline [5] - Lithium prices are under pressure at the bottom, with a slight increase in carbonate lithium prices, but the market is awaiting further production cuts from mining sources [5] - Cobalt prices have seen a slight increase, with attention on potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could impact supply [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview 1.1 Important Information - US May CPI was reported at 2.4%, slightly below expectations, indicating potential economic impacts [9] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including Israeli airstrikes on Iran, may affect market stability [9] 1.2 Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.79% [11] - The sector's performance was led by magnetic materials, gold, and cobalt, while copper, lithium, and aluminum lagged [11] 1.3 Valuation Changes - The PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.13, with a slight increase of 0.59 [18] - The PB_LF for the sector is 2.21, reflecting a 0.07 increase [18] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices saw a decline of 1.44% in London and 1.17% in Shanghai, with significant inventory reductions [23] - The copper smelting profit margin has worsened, indicating financial pressures on producers [23] 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices increased by 1.88% in London and 1.79% in Shanghai, supported by inventory depletion [34] - The profit margin for aluminum producers improved significantly due to rising prices [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices saw a decline, with mining profits narrowing [48] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices remained stable, while nickel prices experienced a slight decline, with profitability for domestic nickel enterprises shrinking [61] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices increased by 0.75%, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased [72] - The profitability of lithium refining remains negative, indicating challenges in the sector [72] 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have seen a slight increase, with domestic refining margins improving [84]