杨婷 以上所有成本，都是"选择"带来的必然结果。作家放弃稳定的收入、自由的时间、丰富的社交甚至身体 健康，最终兑换成了精神创造的独家性——用文字治愈自己、记录时代、表达思想、构建跨越时空的共 鸣，这种价值无法用金钱予以衡量。此外，丰饶内心世界的灵魂自洽、腹有诗书气自华的精神风貌，也 是妥妥的正收益。 正视各种成本，能让选择更清醒：它提醒每个想成为作家的人，这条道路不仅需要热爱，更需要对"放 弃"的坦然，对"不确定性"的耐受，以及对"隐性代价"的清醒认知。毕竟，真正的作家，明知代价，仍 愿为文字燃烧。 本版专栏文章仅代表作者个人观点 时间的不可逆分配，是作家最核心的机会成本。写作需要无干扰的深度投入，这种时间一旦投入，便无 法再用于其他领域。一位每天写作4小时的创作者，若将这些时间用于学习编程，可能3年内成长为初级 开发工程师；若用于经营自媒体，或许能积累10万粉丝的私域流量；若用于陪伴家人，能参与孩子成长 的每一个关键节点。此外，作家的时间投入，还存在"沉没成本"的风险：花6个月写的小说，可能被编 辑退稿；花3个月打磨的散文，可能投稿无门，无人问津。这些无法产生直接价值的时间，若用于学习 其他技能或拓展人脉， ...

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of over 6% after reaching a historical high of $4,380 in October 2025, causing market panic. This volatility is not an isolated incident, as similar drops have occurred five times in the past century, with declines ranging from 22% to 65% [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold Price Drops - Historical analysis reveals that two main factors consistently influence gold price fluctuations: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the U.S. dollar credit cycle. When both factors align, gold's status as a "safe haven" diminishes [3][15]. - In January 1980, gold peaked at $850 per ounce but plummeted to below $300 by 1982, marking a 65% decline. This drop was triggered by extreme monetary policies implemented by then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker to combat hyperinflation, which raised the federal funds rate to a historic high of 20% [3][5]. - Between 1996 and 1999, gold prices fell from $415 to $252, a 40% decrease, driven by a booming tech sector that attracted funds away from gold to riskier assets, alongside a strengthening dollar [5][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Institutional Behavior - In 1999, the Bank of England's decision to sell approximately 400 tons of gold reserves led to a shift in the supply-demand structure and eroded market confidence in gold's value. This central bank selling, combined with a risk asset rally, created a prolonged downward pressure on gold prices [7][9]. - During the 2008 financial crisis, gold failed to act as a safe haven as institutions sold off all liquid assets, including gold, to maintain cash flow amid liquidity shortages. This behavior was reflected in the significant reduction of holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF [9][11]. Group 3: Recent Trends and Future Implications - In 2011, gold reached a high of $1,920 but entered a bear market, dropping to $1,046 by 2015, a 46% decline. This was primarily due to the Fed's shift in monetary policy and a recovering U.S. economy that redirected funds to the stock market [11][13]. - In 2022, the Fed initiated an aggressive rate hike cycle, raising rates by a total of 425 basis points over the year, which led to a 22% decline in gold prices as the dollar index surged to a 20-year high [13][15]. - The analysis of five major price drops reveals two common factors: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift and the strengthening of the dollar, both of which exert significant downward pressure on gold prices. Additional factors, such as central bank selling and liquidity crises, can amplify these declines but require alignment with the primary factors to trigger a sustained downturn [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping over 6% in a single day to below $4100 per ounce, has caught investors off guard, especially those who believed in a continuous upward trend in gold prices [1][5][10] Historical Context - Gold investment has historically been volatile, with significant price drops occurring four times in the past two decades, with declines of 22%, 20%, 45%, and 33% [3][4] - The most notable decline occurred between 2011 and 2015, where gold prices fell from a peak of $1920 per ounce to $1050, a drop of nearly 45% [3][4] Market Dynamics - The recent price drop is attributed to a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which has historically impacted gold prices negatively [5][13] - The end of the second round of quantitative easing in 2011 led to a significant rise in the dollar index, which diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5][13] Opportunity Cost - Gold is considered a zero-yield asset, and its attractiveness is heavily influenced by opportunity costs. When the Federal Reserve maintains low interest rates, gold is more appealing, but rising rates diminish its allure [6][16] Geopolitical Factors - The belief that geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, would bolster gold prices was challenged as aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve led to a significant drop in gold prices from $2078 to $1618, a decline of 22% [7][13] Recent Market Reactions - The volatility in international gold prices has directly affected domestic gold jewelry markets, with major brands in China significantly lowering their gold prices in response to the international market fluctuations [10][12] Investor Behavior - Investors often fall into the trap of "chasing highs and cutting losses," particularly during periods of extreme optimism, which can lead to significant financial losses [14][15] - The phenomenon of "Chinese mothers" buying gold at high prices in 2013 serves as a cautionary tale about the risks associated with gold investment [15][16] Key Signals to Watch - Investors are advised to closely monitor signals from the Federal Reserve, including interest rate changes and economic indicators, as these are critical in predicting gold price movements [17][18]

Core Insights - The article discusses the complexities behind the seemingly simple decision of what to eat for lunch, highlighting the economic principles that govern these choices [1][4][11] Economic Principles in Food Choices - Opportunity cost is a central concept, where every lunch decision involves not just the money spent but also the value of alternatives forgone [5][6] - Information asymmetry poses challenges, as the appealing images and reviews on food delivery platforms often do not match the actual product received [5][6] - Time and transaction costs are crucial in decision-making, where individuals must evaluate whether to save money or time based on their current resources [6][10] Practical Guidelines for Consumers - Following crowds rather than just reviews can lead to better dining choices, as local patrons often indicate quality and value [7][8] - Exploring less popular areas can uncover hidden gems that offer better value due to lower overhead costs [8] - Embracing diversity in food choices helps combat diminishing marginal utility, enhancing overall satisfaction [9][10] - Analyzing meal deals critically can reveal whether they genuinely save money or create unnecessary spending [9][10] Broader Implications - The principles outlined address the common dilemma of "choice overload," where too many options can lead to anxiety and dissatisfaction [10][11] - Establishing a personal decision-making framework can streamline the process of choosing meals, making it more efficient and enjoyable [10][11] - The insights from food choices can be applied to various aspects of life, including career decisions and investment strategies, promoting a rational approach to decision-making [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices, from over $1,500 per ounce in 2020 to over $4,200 currently, is primarily driven by excessive money supply, leading to currency devaluation and increased demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Money Supply and Gold Prices - "Excessive money supply" refers to central banks printing large amounts of money, exemplified by the Federal Reserve increasing its balance sheet from $4.2 trillion to $8.96 trillion post-2020, effectively printing money equivalent to decades of previous issuance [1][4]. - The relationship between money supply and gold prices is illustrated by historical data, such as during the 2008 financial crisis when the Fed's quantitative easing led to a tripling of gold prices from $700 to $1,920 per ounce [4]. - A 1% increase in the U.S. M2 money supply correlates with an average monthly increase of 0.0113% in London gold prices, indicating that 78% of gold price fluctuations are related to excessive money supply [4]. Group 2: Inflation and Gold Demand - Increased money supply typically results in inflation, which has been observed with rising prices for essential goods like food and fuel [3]. - Anticipation of inflation drives investors to buy gold as a protective measure, with gold prices rising by 28% in 2023 due to inflation expectations even before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates [3][4]. - Lower interest rates, resulting from increased money supply, reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it a more attractive investment [3]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Gold Investment - Economic conditions influence gold prices; during strong economic periods, such as in 2017, gold prices rose only 13% as investors favored stocks and real estate [6]. - Conversely, in weaker economic conditions, such as projected low global growth in 2025, gold prices can surge significantly as investors seek safety [6]. - The depreciation of the U.S. dollar due to excessive printing makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, further increasing demand [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategy for Gold - Investors are advised to monitor the Federal Reserve's actions, particularly interest rate changes, as these can significantly impact gold prices [8]. - A recommended allocation of 10%-15% of an investment portfolio to gold is suggested for hedging against currency devaluation, balancing the need for protection without overly compromising potential returns [8]. - Investors should be cautious of the volatility in gold prices, as they can decline during periods of interest rate hikes, emphasizing the importance of strategic buying during market corrections [9].

巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦在2024年及2025年大举减持苹果股票的决定，已让这家投资巨头错失约500亿 美元的账面收益。 随着市场对iPhone前景重燃乐观情绪，本周一苹果股价涨近4%，市值涨至3.89万亿美元，超越微软成为 全美市值第二大企业。这轮强劲上涨，让伯克希尔此前的减持决策显得尤为瞩目。 此外，这笔巨额收益还需支付高昂的税款。据估算，伯克希尔为出售苹果股票支付的企业所得税接近 200亿美元，约合每股30美元，这将使其净收益减少至每股155美元左右。 巴菲特为何出售？ 关于巴菲特出售苹果股票的动机，市场有多种解读。 （苹果市值接近4万亿美元） 根据披露，截至今年6月30日，伯克希尔的苹果持股已从2023年底的9.06亿股骤降至2.8亿股，其中大部 分出售发生在2024年第二季度，当季减持了近400万股。据估算，伯克希尔出售三分之二苹果持仓的决 定，使公司少赚约500亿美元。 当时这一大规模减持显得有些出人意料，因为巴菲特曾将苹果与伯克希尔的保险、公用事业和铁路业务 （BNSF）并列，称其为公司价值的四大"支柱"之一，这曾暗示苹果可能像美国运通和可口可乐一样， 是伯克希尔的"永久持股"。 高昂的"机会成 ...

（苹果市值接近4万亿美元） 根据披露， 截至今年6月30日，伯克希尔的苹果持股已从2023年底的9.06亿股骤降至2.8亿股，其中大部分出售发生在2024年第二季度，当季减持了近400万 股。 据估算，伯克希尔出售三分之二苹果持仓的决定，使公司少赚约500亿美元。 当时这一大规模减持显得有些出人意料，因为巴菲特曾将苹果与伯克希尔的保险、公用事业和铁路业务（BNSF）并列，称其为公司价值的四大"支柱"之一，这 曾暗示苹果可能像美国运通和可口可乐一样，是伯克希尔的"永久持股"。 巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦在2024年及2025年大举减持苹果股票的决定，已让这家投资巨头错失约500亿美元的账面收益。 随着市场对iPhone前景重燃乐观情绪，本周一苹果股价涨近4%，市值涨至3.89万亿美元，超越微软成为全美市值第二大企业。这轮强劲上涨，让伯克希尔此 前的减持决策显得尤为瞩目。 鉴于苹果股价的强势表现，不能排除巴菲特在第三季度进一步减持的可能性， 相关数据将在11月中旬公布。 高昂的"机会成本" 根据巴菲特在2021年股东信中的披露，伯克希尔最初买入约10亿股苹果股票的平均成本约为每股35美元。 据估算， 伯克希尔出售苹 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by farmers during the corn harvest season in northern China due to continuous rainfall, which has led to crop damage and delays in harvesting [4][7][31]. Group 1: Impact of Weather on Agriculture - Continuous rainfall during the corn harvest season has caused significant issues, including crop spoilage and difficulties in using harvesting machinery [7][31]. - The mechanization rate for crop farming in northern China exceeds 74%, with regions like Shandong reaching 91.7%, but weather conditions limit the effectiveness of these machines [7][31]. - Farmers are forced to engage in urgent harvesting efforts to prevent further crop loss, highlighting the unpredictability of agricultural production [7][8]. Group 2: Traditional Agricultural Practices - Farmers are resorting to traditional methods of harvesting, such as manually collecting corn and transporting it despite challenging conditions [8][12]. - The social aspect of harvesting, where community members come together to help, reflects deep-rooted agricultural traditions [14][22]. - The process of drying corn involves innovative methods developed over generations, showcasing the adaptability of farmers [15][16]. Group 3: Economic Considerations - The economic viability of farming is questioned, as rising costs for seeds, fertilizers, and other inputs make it difficult for farmers to achieve profitable returns [26][28]. - The opportunity cost of farming is highlighted, with many farmers considering more lucrative employment options in urban areas [26][28]. - The article raises concerns about the future of farming, particularly regarding labor shortages as younger generations migrate to cities [27][28]. Group 4: Government Response - The government has allocated nearly 500 million yuan to assist affected areas with agricultural recovery efforts, but the amount is deemed insufficient given the scale of the challenges [31]. - The ongoing rainfall complicates not only the corn harvest but also the upcoming wheat planting season, indicating a broader agricultural crisis [31].

Core Insights - The article discusses how Warren Buffett accumulated a million-dollar fortune by the age of 30 through systematic application of investment principles learned from his mentor Benjamin Graham and by identifying overlooked opportunities in the market [1][10]. Group 1: Investment Principles - Buffett emphasizes the importance of viewing stocks as ownership in companies and seeking a "margin of safety" in investments [1]. - He advises looking for opportunities in areas that others ignore, such as undervalued companies or assets, rather than following popular stocks [2]. - The article highlights Buffett's early investment strategies, including a notable transaction involving a company with undervalued cocoa bean inventory, which he capitalized on by exchanging shares for cocoa beans [2]. Group 2: Entrepreneurship and Side Hustles - Buffett started his entrepreneurial journey at a young age, selling gum and delivering newspapers, where he optimized his delivery routes for maximum efficiency [3]. - His early ventures, such as the pinball machine business, taught him about passive income and the importance of understanding business operations [4]. - The article suggests that side hustles can accelerate wealth accumulation and provide valuable business skills that traditional employment may not offer [4]. Group 3: Time vs. Money - Buffett believes in making money work for him rather than trading time for money, focusing on investments that yield returns over time [5]. - He stresses the importance of creating systems that allow money to generate income without constant effort, such as real estate or dividend-paying stocks [6]. Group 4: Financial Discipline - Despite earning a high income, Buffett maintained a frugal lifestyle, understanding the concept of opportunity cost and avoiding lifestyle inflation [7]. - The article illustrates how small savings can compound significantly over time, emphasizing the importance of saving and investing wisely [7]. Group 5: Continuous Learning - Buffett dedicates a significant amount of time to reading and learning, which he considers essential for making informed investment decisions [8]. - He advocates for investing in knowledge as the best return on investment, highlighting the importance of skills that cannot be outsourced [9]. - The article concludes that combining these principles—side hustles, frugality, and continuous learning—can lead to greater financial success and opportunities [9][10].

也许是大数据算法的缘故，最近在抖音等社交媒体，刷到了很多"农村掰玉米"的短视频。这不是什么最新的互联网流量，只是恰逢假期，返乡大学生们用 他们的手机记录下的最真实的收玉米场景：全副武装、头戴草帽、长袖长裤，走进田埂、开启摘玉米的劳作。 每年10月，都是北方地区玉米丰收的时刻。但今年，有些不一样：本应尘土飞扬的丰收，却被不寻常的连日降雨打破。 社交媒体上的"收玉米"视频 天不遂人意 大部分时候，雨被农民视为丰收的象征。有了雨，农作物就可以茁壮成长，就可以省一次浇地的钱。但作物收获时，就不再盼着雨来了，既有传统的因 素，也有现代的逻辑。 今年玉米收获季，在山东、河南这片广阔的平原，本该秋收的日子却迎来了一场连绵的雨。这意味着玉米会被雨水持续泡着，然后发霉；收割机进不了泥 泞的土地，机械化收割没有用武之地；玉米运输车也不能装太多，否则就会陷在地里。 根据相关统计，截至2024年底，我国农作物耕种收综合机械化率已经超过74％。在北方平原地区，这一数字更高，例如山东的农作物耕种收综合机械化率 高达91.7％。但与一般人的想象有所不同，农业机械并非万能，其能力边界仍牢牢地为地形、天气所限制，当雨打湿土地时，常规的轮式收割 ...