1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price remains in a sideways pattern, and the gold-silver ratio has normalized due to the increase in market risk sentiment. The upcoming Fed interest rate meeting may have a significant impact on the market if the Fed unexpectedly cuts rates. The potential removal of Fed Chairman Powell could increase safe-haven demand and benefit the gold price. It is recommended to buy gold on dips for hedging [8]. - The silver price has reached a new high, and there is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio. However, due to its high volatility, attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss. The weakening photovoltaic sector may also suppress the silver price in the future. It is recommended to buy silver on dips for hedging [9]. - It is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - It is advisable to put options on hold [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - The Washington Federal Court rejected the request of an investment firm led by Trump's ally to make the FOMC meeting public. The US Treasury significantly raised its borrowing estimate for the third quarter to $1.007 trillion. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, slightly alleviating market concerns about future uncertainties and causing precious metals to weaken slightly. The US and the EU are still discussing tariff exemptions for wine and spirits. The Fed interest rate meeting is approaching, and Trump has called for a rate cut this week [1] 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 28, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 772.82 yuan/gram and closed at 774.78 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 770.84 yuan/gram, down 0.31% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,350 yuan/kg and closed at 9,212 yuan/kg, down 1.92% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,203,307 lots, and the open interest was 398,421 lots. The night session closed at 9,200 yuan/kg, down 0.27% from the afternoon session [2] 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 28, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.40%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 51%, up 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.4 SHFE Gold and Silver Position and Trading Volume Changes - On July 28, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 939 lots, and the short positions decreased by 41 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract was 330,092 lots, down 45.61% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,184 lots, and the short positions decreased by 4,086 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai silver contract was 1,564,987 lots, down 39.34% from the previous trading day [4] 3.5 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons from the previous trading day [5] 3.6 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On July 28, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -4.52 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -513.64 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 84.11, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.7 Fundamental Data - On July 28, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + D market was 34,706 kg, down 36.38% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 637,268 kg, down 44.82% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,848 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kg [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] Core Viewpoints - The eurozone's economic data is weak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the Middle East situation [2] - China's May economic data was mixed, with weak investment and export, and only consumption showing resilience. Fiscal policy may be further strengthened [3] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US retail sales declined in May. The eurozone's composite PMI dropped [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, which may lead to significant changes in the prices of crude oil, commodities, global stock indices, and precious metals [5] - Commodities are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may have price increases. Oil prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's May investment data was weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The government may increase fiscal support. The US and China held a trade negotiation meeting, and the US tariff policy may be flexible. South Korea and Japan's leaders will not attend the NATO summit [3] - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate. The US retail sales declined in May, and the eurozone's composite PMI dropped. The ECB has limited room for interest rate cuts [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since June 13, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia supports Iran, and the US has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may close the Hormuz Strait. If the conflict spreads, it will impact global markets [5] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, industrial products may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Oil supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - term, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] To - do News - Multiple events related to the Iran - Israel conflict on June 23, including military strikes, statements from various countries, and discussions in international organizations. China, Russia, and Pakistan proposed a UN Security Council resolution draft [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core View - Since May, the gold price has been in a volatile pattern, influenced by Trump's changing attitude towards tariff policies and Fed Chairman Powell's cautious stance on interest rate cuts. Now, Trump's mention of replacing the Fed Chairman and urging rate cuts increases market uncertainty. For gold, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with an operating range of 760 yuan/gram - 765 yuan/gram. Silver prices are strong, hitting a record high, but due to its high volatility, it's advisable to buy on dips for hedging without aggressive chasing, and pay more attention to position control and strict stop-loss execution. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement by the end of the month, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Trump called the Los Angeles riots a "foreign invasion," and a US judge rejected California's request to immediately stop Trump from sending troops to the state. Russia and the US will hold a new round of talks in Moscow soon [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On June 10, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 774.00 yuan/gram and closed at 775.06 yuan/gram, up 0.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 179,960 lots, and the open interest was 170,163 lots. The night session opened at 777.70 yuan/gram and closed at 774.96 yuan/gram, up 0.23% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 8,900 yuan/kg and closed at 8,887 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 969,816 lots, and the open interest was 465,984 lots. The night session opened at 8,910 yuan/kg and closed at 8,889 yuan/kg, down 0.43% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On June 10, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.49%, up 0.11% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.46%, down 2 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Long and Short Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On June 10, 2025, on the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 38 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 44 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 326,479 lots, down 28.17% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 4,031 lots, and the short positions decreased by 227 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,458,778 lots, down 21.36% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - On the previous day, the gold ETF holdings were 935.91 tons, down 0.31 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,689.50 tons, up 32.52 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On June 10, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 1.25 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -645.16 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contract prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 87.21, up 0.29% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 90.68, down 1.64% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On June 10, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 50,072 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 617,842 kg, up 5.80% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 21,766 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 57,180 kg [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Viewpoints - The recent long-term U.S. Treasury bond auctions have not been ideal, and yields have risen significantly. After Powell presented a new framework for interest rate policy, there are reports that the Fed is quietly buying Treasury bonds, which may benefit gold in the future. So, the current operation for gold is to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 750 yuan/gram and 760 yuan/gram. Silver prices generally follow gold, so the current silver trend is also relatively strong, and the operation can also be to buy on dips for hedging, with the range between 8,150 yuan/kilogram and 8,200 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The Trump tax reform bill passed the House of Representatives by a narrow margin and was sent to the Senate for deliberation. The U.S. Senate voted to pass a bill to end the ban on the sale of fuel-powered vehicles in California and sent it to Trump for signature. Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decline, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. Geopolitically, Iran vowed to make a "devastating response" to any stupid act by Israel. Any Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities will be regarded as U.S. involvement. Iran has the ability but no intention to produce nuclear weapons. Gold prices have recently fallen after reaching a high and are currently maintaining a high-level volatile pattern [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 22, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.16 yuan/gram and closed at 780.10 yuan/gram, up 0.17% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 307,544 lots, and the open interest was 224,053 lots. The night session of the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 775.22 yuan/gram and closed at 773.76 yuan/gram, down 0.71% from the afternoon close of the previous day. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,265 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,301 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 763,517 lots, and the open interest was 383,991 lots. The night session of the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,236 yuan/kilogram and closed at 8,251 yuan/kilogram, down 0.52% from the afternoon close of the previous day [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 22, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rate closed at 4.58%, a change of 0.10% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.54%, down 4 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions changed by 4 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by -424 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 522,685 lots, a decrease of 21.68% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai Silver, on the Ag2502 contract, there were 480 long positions, and the short positions increased by -902 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,074,516 lots, a decrease of 9.88% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In terms of precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 923.89 tons yesterday, an increase of 4.01 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 14,132.67 tons, an increase of 77.77 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 22, 2025, in terms of domestic premiums, the domestic premium for gold was 3.50 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -459.58 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange yesterday was approximately 93.98, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of gold and silver in the overseas market was 99.65, a change of -0.18% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (May 22, 2025), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 60,470 kilograms, an increase of 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 330,696 kilograms, a decrease of 39.63% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 20,258 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 54,810 kilograms [7]