Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [2][14] - The four-week moving average fell to 205,000, the lowest in two years [2][14] Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump stated that he currently has no plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite threats from the Justice Department regarding a criminal investigation [2][14] - Trump is considering former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett for the next Fed Chair position [2][14] Futures Market Overview - On January 15, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1,041.00 CNY/gram and closed at 1,035.20 CNY/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day [3][15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 23,488.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of -0.43% [3][15] Bond Market Monitoring - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, an increase of 0.043% from the previous trading day [4][16] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 basis points from the previous day [4][16] Trading Volume and Positions - On January 15, 2026, the total trading volume for gold contracts was 392,878, a decrease of 2.23% from the previous day [5][17] - The total trading volume for silver contracts was 3,117,047, an increase of 14.39% from the previous day [5][17] ETF Holdings - Gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,074.23 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 79 tons to 16,242 tons [6][18] Market Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish outlook is suggested, with expected price fluctuations between 1,020 CNY/gram and 1,045 CNY/gram [9][21] - For silver, a cautiously bullish stance is also indicated, with anticipated price movements between 22,700 CNY/kilogram and 24,000 CNY/kilogram [10][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven premium of precious metals. The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential slight rise in the demand for gold investment. The gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow again [1][8]. Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027. In terms of employment data, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations, and still in a historically low range. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 997.94 yuan/gram, a change of -0.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,103.00 yuan/kg and closed at 18,450.00 yuan/kg, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,142,360 lots, and the open interest was 281,631 lots. The night session closed at 18,368 yuan/kg, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 8, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.163%, a change of +0.015% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.677%, a change of -0.1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On January 8, 2026, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,317 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,803 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 316,913 lots, a change of -2.78% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions increased by 531 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,738 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,113,931 lots, a change of -4.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 16,100 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On January 8, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -4.20 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -439.81 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 54.09, a change of 4.45% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.46, a change of -0.49% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 48,788 kg, a change of -22.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 2,833,448 kg, a change of 244.04% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 3,000 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to fluctuate between 990 yuan/gram and 1010 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,500 yuan/kg and 19,000 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has emerged, and the gold price remains in a high-level oscillation. With central bank gold purchases providing non-speculative demand support, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillatory pattern in the near term. The Au2602 contract may oscillate between 990 yuan/gram and 1015 yuan/gram [8]. - The silver price has corrected, and it is slightly weaker than gold due to the recovery of risk sentiment. However, the silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18,500 yuan/kilogram and 20,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, China's foreign exchange reserves reached a ten-year high, and gold reserves increased for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion month-on-month, hitting a new high since December 2015. Gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces, up 30,000 ounces month-on-month [1]. - Overseas, the US "small non-farm" data in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. ADP data indicated that private-sector employment in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations. In addition, US job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far below the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024 [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1006.00 yuan/gram and closed at 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.61% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 1002.20 yuan/gram, up 0.33% from the afternoon close [2]. - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,460.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,172,110 lots, and the open interest was 273,460 lots. In the night session, it opened at 19,103 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,020 yuan/kilogram, down 1.40% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 7, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.148%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.678%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract on January 7, 2026, long positions decreased by 3,185 lots, and short positions decreased by 980 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 325,966 lots, up 5.79% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, long positions decreased by 103 lots, and short positions decreased by 7,302 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 3,244,344 lots, up 12.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - For precious metals ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,118 tons, down 236 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 7, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -5.62 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,003.04 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 51.78, up 0.23% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.74, down 4.00% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 63,134 kilograms, up 42.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 823,590 kilograms, down 6.05% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,130 kilograms [7].

Economic Data - The initial estimate of the US GDP for Q3 shows a significant annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3%, surpassing the market expectation of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [2] - Strong consumer spending was the primary driver of this growth, with a notable acceleration to 3.5% for the quarter [2] - The core PCE price index increased by 2.9% in Q3 [2] - In October, both core capital goods orders and shipments in the US showed a rebound [2] - Hassett, a potential candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, noted that the AI boom is contributing to economic growth while simultaneously lowering inflation, indicating that the US is lagging behind other central banks in terms of interest rate cuts [2] Futures Market - On December 23, 2025, the main gold futures contract opened at 999.36 CNY/gram and closed at 1014.24 CNY/gram, reflecting a change of 1.34% from the previous trading day [15] - The trading volume for gold on that day was 41,087 contracts, with an open interest of 129,725 contracts [15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 16,200 CNY/kilogram and closed at 16,441 CNY/kilogram, showing a change of 1.43% [15] - The trading volume for silver was 1,230,157 contracts, with an open interest of 340,510 contracts [15] Bond Market - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was recorded at 4.163%, with a change of +0.2 basis points from the previous trading day [16] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.633%, increasing by 2.77 basis points [16] Precious Metals Holdings - As of December 22, 2025, the gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,064.56 tons, while silver ETF holdings increased by 533 tons to 16,599 tons [18] Trading Strategies - For gold, a cautiously bullish stance is recommended, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 990 CNY/gram and 1,050 CNY/gram [21] - For silver, a neutral position is suggested, with a price range forecasted between 16,600 CNY/kilogram and 17,600 CNY/kilogram, while cautioning against potential profit-taking risks at high levels [22]

Market Analysis - Russia-Ukraine negotiation process continues, and the ECB ends its easing policy. Putin agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations and states conditions for halting armed actions. The ECB strengthens the market's expectation of the end of the current interest rate cut cycle [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 27, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 947.00 yuan/gram, closed at 947.16 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 946.90 yuan/gram, down 0.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 12,250.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,827,650 lots, and the open interest was 427,960 lots. The night session closed at 12,490 yuan/kilogram, down 0.28% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.988%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.527%, up 1.03 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On November 27, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, long positions changed by 979 lots, and short positions changed by 2,210 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 346,227 lots, down 23.63% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, long positions changed by 1,792 lots, and short positions changed by 1,933 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,287,902 lots, up 11.53% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,045.43 tons, up 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,582 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.08 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,412.49 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 75.62, down 2.33% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 79.19, down 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 46,178 kilograms, down 19.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 864,016 kilograms, up 29.27% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 59,190 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to concerns about the US economic slowdown and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. The Au2602 contract may fluctuate between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The macro logic is similar to that of gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the tight spot market drives the gold-silver ratio to narrow. The silver price is also expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract fluctuating between 12,200 yuan/kilogram and 12,700 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: Hold off

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - Market risk sentiment is emerging, and the expectation that Hassett may become the Fed Chairman is rising, which may increase the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a range of 940 - 980 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to be in a range of 12300 - 12800 yuan/kilogram, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening, which may end the 43-day government shutdown. The shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points, and the October CPI and employment reports may not be released. Hassett said he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman and hopes for a larger rate cut in December [2]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 945.76 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 41087 lots and an open interest of 129725 lots. The night session closed at 963.32 yuan/gram, up 1.86% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures closed at 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 1.62% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 669617 lots and an open interest of 235542 lots. The night session closed at 12508 yuan/kilogram, up 3.60% from the afternoon session [3]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 12, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.069%, up 0.2 BP from the previous day, and the 10-2 year spread was 0.507%, down 0.9 BP from the previous day [4]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 12, 2025, on the Au2512 contract, long positions decreased by 5535 lots and short positions decreased by 879 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts decreased by 8.42% from the previous day. On the Ag2512 contract, long positions increased by 5210 lots and short positions increased by 1601 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts increased by 8.09% from the previous day [5]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15089 tons, also unchanged from the previous day [6]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 2.24 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1184.64 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold-silver ratio was about 78.34, down 1.92% from the previous day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 80.75, down 0.91% from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51666 kilograms, down 18.05% from the previous day, and the trading volume of silver was 870430 kilograms, up 20.04% from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 29970 kilograms [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After the Sino-US summit in Busan, market risk sentiment may subside, reducing the short - term safe - haven demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillation pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 900 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram. Silver has a similar macro - logical relationship with gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, silver prices are slightly stronger than gold, and the Ag2512 contract is expected to oscillate between 11200 yuan/kilogram and 11700 yuan/kilogram [8][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - After the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump, the two economic and trade teams reached a consensus on important economic and trade issues. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. The US will also suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned the second - round interview of the Federal Reserve Chairman and his view on the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the third consecutive time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target level. Although the euro - zone economy shows certain resilience, geopolitical tensions and US tariff uncertainties still pose risks [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 30, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 919.70 yuan/gram and closed at 912.16 yuan/gram, a change of 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 910.00 yuan/gram and closed at 920.40 yuan/gram, a 0.90% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11427.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11253.00 yuan/kilogram, a - 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 820874 lots, and the open interest was 283230 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11245 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11448 yuan/kilogram, a 1.73% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.097%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of - 2BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 902 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions increased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 412100 lots, a 13.45% change from the previous trading day. On the Ag2512 contract, the long positions decreased by 8579 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8236 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 820874 lots, a 9.76% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1036.05 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15210 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 30, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 11.46 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was - 753.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.06, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.53, a - 0.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 57302 kilograms, a 9.92% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1294530 kilograms, a 113.81% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 112200 kilograms [7]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" main goals were released, boosting market sentiment. The goals include significant achievements in high-quality development, increased self-reliance in technology, breakthroughs in deepening reforms, enhanced social civilization, improved quality of life, major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthened national security. By 2035, the aim is for China's economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength to significantly rise, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries. This suggests an average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, positively impacting current market sentiment and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%. The October S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, better than the previous 52. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt in balance sheet contraction in the coming months, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy and a relatively smooth path for easing [2] Group 3: Commodity Sector Analysis - The commodity market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black metal sector is under pressure from downstream demand expectations, while the non-ferrous sector is supported by long-term supply constraints and recent global easing expectations. The energy sector is viewed with a medium-term supply surplus outlook, as OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is noteworthy. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, while precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after significant fluctuations, awaiting new signals for movement [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both gold and silver is cautiously bullish [8][9] Core Viewpoints - The market tends to price in consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. With the expectation of monetary easing and risk - aversion sentiment due to the potential U.S. federal government shutdown, gold prices are expected to remain in a relatively strong oscillation. The Au2512 contract may oscillate between 860 yuan/gram and 880 yuan/gram [8] - Silver shares the same macro - level logic as gold. The easing cycle promotes the recovery of silver's industrial demand, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10500 yuan/kilogram and 11500 yuan/kilogram [10] - The strategy for arbitrage is to short the gold - silver ratio at high levels, and the option strategy is to postpone [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In terms of interest rates, Fed's Williams supported the interest rate cut at the last meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, and estimated the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%. Musalem is open to future rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters [1] - Regarding tariffs, U.S. President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all movies made outside the U.S. and large tariffs on countries that do not manufacture furniture in the U.S. to boost domestic industries [1] - On the fiscal front, U.S. Senate Republicans will vote again on Tuesday on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, while Democrats rejected the short - term temporary spending bill [1] - Geopolitically, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a bilateral meeting. Trump said Netanyahu accepted his Gaza peace plan, which could end the war immediately if both sides agree, and requires Gaza to be temporarily governed by a non - political Palestinian technical bureaucracy [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 857.70 yuan/gram and closed at 866.52 yuan/gram, a 1.22% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41087 lots, and the open interest was 129725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 866.88 yuan/gram and closed at 870.42 yuan/gram, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 29, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 10651.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10939.00 yuan/kilogram, a 2.89% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1527083 lots, and the open interest was 508967 lots. In the night session, it opened at 10883 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10907 yuan/kilogram, a 0.29% decrease from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 29, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - 2 year spread was 0.521%, up 0.41 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 86 lots and short positions decreased by 108 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 471378 lots, a 4.54% decrease from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2294694 lots, a 45.70% increase from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,005.72 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,521 tons, an increase of 159 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 13.84 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 1233.70 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 79.21, a 1.93% decrease from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.31, a 0.23% decrease from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 61916 kilograms, a 5.38% decrease from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 538718 kilograms, a 43.68% increase from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 32380 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 12450 kilograms [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Federal Reserve has increased, and the US economic data continues to be weak. The market tends to bet on the Fed's interest rate cut. Therefore, the gold price is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the near future, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 845 yuan/gram and 875 yuan/gram. The silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,250 yuan/kilogram and 10,550 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The divergence within the Federal Reserve on the future monetary policy path has increased. Fed Governor Bowman supports three 25-basis-point interest rate cuts this year, while Goolsbee believes the Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts. The US economic data in September showed that the preliminary value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52, the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 53.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 53.6, all lower than expected and hitting a three-month low [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 847.50 yuan/gram and closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 258,495 lots, and the open interest was 271,554 lots. The night session opened at 861.34 yuan/gram and closed at 859.88 yuan/gram, up 0.52% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,276 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10,349 yuan/kilogram, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 811,054 lots, and the open interest was 508,755 lots. The night session opened at 10,442 yuan/kilogram and closed at 10,394 yuan/kilogram, up 0.43% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 23, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.106%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.533%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the long positions increased by 2,078 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 458 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 398,549 lots, up 9.79% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,690 lots, and the short positions increased by 1 lot. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,332,060 lots, down 0.63% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,000.57 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,469 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 23, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -18.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,005.13 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 82.66, up 0.74% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 85.33, down 0.52% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On September 23, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,156 kilograms, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 548,328 kilograms, down 9.60% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,000 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 55,200 kilograms [7].