Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown crisis has been resolved, and the market is waiting for the US-Iran talks to take place. The gold price has stabilized and rebounded, and the upward logic of the overall price center remains smooth. The silver price has also stabilized and rebounded, and the rebound is slightly stronger than that of gold. The gold-silver ratio has changed significantly, and it is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [1][7][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical situation: The US-Iran talks are still scheduled to be held later this week. Iran hopes to move the talks from Istanbul to Oman and hold them bilaterally, but there has been no response from Iran yet [1] - US government: President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown [1] - Federal Reserve: Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that monetary policy needs to remain cautious until inflation fully returns to the target [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1068.46 yuan/gram and closed at 1093.78 yuan/gram, a change of 8.45% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session opened at 1100.02 yuan/gram and closed at 1108.80 yuan/gram, a 1.37% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 22,000.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,446.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -13.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 931,055 lots, and the open interest was 226,336 lots. The night session opened at 22,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,393 yuan/kilogram, a 4.42% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.266%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.797, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 1,997 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -1,796 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 1,002,716 lots, a change of -20.15% from the previous trading day [3] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -25,039 lots, and the short positions changed by -10,892 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,619,975 lots, a change of 18.82% from the previous trading day [3] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,087.10 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,547 tons, an increase of 1,024 tons from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 3, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was -37.63 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 4,258.64 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 51.00, a change of 25.57% from the previous trading day. The foreign market gold-silver ratio was 57.15, a change of 5.64% from the previous trading day [5] Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (February 3, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 53,896 kilograms, a change of -37.51% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 686,290 kilograms, a change of 223.83% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [6] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The gold price has stabilized and rebounded, and the upward logic of the overall price center remains smooth. The Au2604 contract may oscillate in the range of 1,000 yuan/gram - 1,200 yuan/gram [7] - Silver: Neutral. The silver price has also stabilized and rebounded, and the rebound is slightly stronger than that of gold. The Ag2604 contract may oscillate in the range of 21,000 yuan/kilogram - 23,500 yuan/kilogram [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with COMEX silver initially surging over 16% before retreating, while COMEX gold also saw fluctuations around the $5000 mark, indicating a turbulent trading environment influenced by geopolitical and economic factors [2][14]. Market Analysis - On January 26, 2026, COMEX silver reached a peak increase of over 16%, while spot silver rose nearly 14%, both surpassing $117 per ounce before a sharp decline, ultimately closing with a 2.5% gain [2][14]. - COMEX gold and spot gold both briefly crossed the $5000 and $5100 thresholds, respectively, but ended the day with a modest increase of 0.5%, hovering around $5000 [2][14]. - Spot palladium initially surged by 7% but closed down over 3%, reflecting the overall volatility in the precious metals market [2][14]. Economic Data - U.S. durable goods orders for November 2025 increased by 5.3%, marking the largest growth in six months and exceeding market expectations of 3.7%. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.5%, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [2][16]. Futures Market and Trading Volume - On January 26, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1113.00 CNY per gram and closed at 1143.32 CNY per gram, reflecting a change of 2.48%. The trading volume for the day was 41,087 contracts [17]. - The main silver futures contract opened at 25,228.00 CNY per kilogram and closed at 27,207.00 CNY per kilogram, showing an increase of 8.98% with a trading volume of 965,900 contracts [17][18]. ETF Holdings - As of the latest report, gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,086.53 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 14 tons to 16,090 tons [20]. Strategy Outlook - For gold, a cautious bullish stance is recommended, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 1130 CNY per gram and 1160 CNY per gram due to rising market risk sentiment [23]. - For silver, a neutral outlook is suggested, with anticipated price fluctuations between 27,000 CNY per kilogram and 30,000 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a slightly stronger position compared to gold [25].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Sector - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to the emergence of market risk sentiment, the demand for gold investment may increase, and the gold price is expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillatory pattern. The Au2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,090 yuan/gram and 1,170 yuan/gram. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory pattern, and the Ag2604 contract is expected to oscillate between 23,800 yuan/kg and 25,000 yuan/kg. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. The recommended strategy is to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels and postpone options trading [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Market Analysis - Geopolitical: US President Trump stated that the ongoing Greenland agreement would grant the US "all the military access it wants" and threatened "strong retaliation" if European countries sold US assets due to Greenland-related tariff threats. Economic data: The final annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2025 in the US was 4.4%, higher than the initial 4.3%, the fastest in nearly two years. The core PCE price index in November increased by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations. Labor market: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 200,000, lower than the expected 210,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 22, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,097.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1,087.58 yuan/gram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,087.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,104.52 yuan/gram, a 1.56% increase from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,037.00 yuan/kg, closed at 23,339.00 yuan/kg, a 0.90% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 770,373 lots, and the open interest was 307,790 lots. In the night session, it opened at 23,150 yuan/kg and closed at 24,315 yuan/kg, a 4.18% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 22, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.241%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.646%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On January 22, 2026, in the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 2,286 lots, and short positions decreased by 917 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous day was 550,853 lots, a 0.74% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2604 contract, long positions increased by 7,551 lots, and short positions increased by 4,712 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous day was 1,820,246 lots, a -6.56% change from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,077.66 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings decreased by 56 tons to 16,166 tons [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 22, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 9.99 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -332.83 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 46.60, a -1.32% change from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 51.24, a 3.81% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 22, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 57,076 kg, a -40.22% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 417,564 kg, a -1.28% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kg [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has cooled, and precious metals continue to fluctuate at high levels. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly strengthen. The gold price is expected to be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near term, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to continue to narrow [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four-week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two-year low. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now and tends to choose the next Fed chairman between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,041.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,035.20 yuan/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,035.98 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the afternoon closing. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,488.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 1,463,056 lots, and the open interest was 344,468 lots. The night session closed at 23,089 yuan/kilogram, up 1.87% from the afternoon closing [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 15, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, a change of +0.043% from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Position and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long position changed by -7,964 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by -890 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 392,878 lots, a change of -2.23% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by 678 lots, and the short position changed by 2,006 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,117,047 lots, a change of 14.39% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,074.23 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,242 tons, a decrease of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 15, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 1.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -750.38 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 45.67, a change of -0.09% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 50.86, a change of -4.76% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 45,450 kilograms, a change of -31.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,202 kilograms, a change of -19.09% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 300 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 1,020 yuan/gram and 1,045 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] Options - Options are on hold [9]

Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, marking the lowest level since November of the previous year [2][14] - The four-week moving average fell to 205,000, the lowest in two years [2][14] Federal Reserve Insights - President Trump stated that he currently has no plans to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, despite threats from the Justice Department regarding a criminal investigation [2][14] - Trump is considering former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett for the next Fed Chair position [2][14] Futures Market Overview - On January 15, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1,041.00 CNY/gram and closed at 1,035.20 CNY/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day [3][15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 23,488.00 CNY/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 CNY/kilogram, a change of -0.43% [3][15] Bond Market Monitoring - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, an increase of 0.043% from the previous trading day [4][16] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 basis points from the previous day [4][16] Trading Volume and Positions - On January 15, 2026, the total trading volume for gold contracts was 392,878, a decrease of 2.23% from the previous day [5][17] - The total trading volume for silver contracts was 3,117,047, an increase of 14.39% from the previous day [5][17] ETF Holdings - Gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,074.23 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 79 tons to 16,242 tons [6][18] Market Strategy - For gold, a cautiously bullish outlook is suggested, with expected price fluctuations between 1,020 CNY/gram and 1,045 CNY/gram [9][21] - For silver, a cautiously bullish stance is also indicated, with anticipated price movements between 22,700 CNY/kilogram and 24,000 CNY/kilogram [10][22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks have pushed up the safe-haven premium of precious metals. The market risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential slight rise in the demand for gold investment. The gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow again [1][8]. Market Analysis - Geopolitically, US President Trump plans to "manage" Venezuela for many years and extract its oil reserves, and proposes to increase the US military budget from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion in fiscal year 2027. In terms of employment data, the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to 208,000, slightly lower than market expectations, and still in a historically low range. The number of layoffs in December last year was 35,553, the lowest in 17 months [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 997.94 yuan/gram, a change of -0.10% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.82 yuan/gram, up 0.39% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,103.00 yuan/kg and closed at 18,450.00 yuan/kg, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,142,360 lots, and the open interest was 281,631 lots. The night session closed at 18,368 yuan/kg, down 0.44% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 8, 2026, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.163%, a change of +0.015% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.677%, a change of -0.1 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On January 8, 2026, on the Au2602 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,317 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 2,803 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 316,913 lots, a change of -2.78% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions increased by 531 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,738 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,113,931 lots, a change of -4.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The position of the gold ETF was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 16,100 tons, a decrease of 18 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On January 8, 2026, the domestic premium of gold was -4.20 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -439.81 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 54.09, a change of 4.45% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.46, a change of -0.49% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 48,788 kg, a change of -22.72% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 2,833,448 kg, a change of 244.04% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 11,872 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 3,000 kg [7]. Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to fluctuate between 990 yuan/gram and 1010 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,500 yuan/kg and 19,000 yuan/kg [8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The market risk sentiment has emerged, and the gold price remains in a high-level oscillation. With central bank gold purchases providing non-speculative demand support, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillatory pattern in the near term. The Au2602 contract may oscillate between 990 yuan/gram and 1015 yuan/gram [8]. - The silver price has corrected, and it is slightly weaker than gold due to the recovery of risk sentiment. However, the silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillatory pattern, with the Ag2604 contract oscillating between 18,500 yuan/kilogram and 20,000 yuan/kilogram [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestically, China's foreign exchange reserves reached a ten-year high, and gold reserves increased for 14 consecutive months. As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves were $3.3579 trillion, up $1.15 billion month-on-month, hitting a new high since December 2015. Gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces, up 30,000 ounces month-on-month [1]. - Overseas, the US "small non-farm" data in December 2025 showed a mild recovery. ADP data indicated that private-sector employment in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations. In addition, US job openings in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far below the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024 [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 1006.00 yuan/gram and closed at 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.61% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 999.40 yuan/gram and closed at 1002.20 yuan/gram, up 0.33% from the afternoon close [2]. - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 19,460.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 2,172,110 lots, and the open interest was 273,460 lots. In the night session, it opened at 19,103 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,020 yuan/kilogram, down 1.40% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 7, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.148%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.678%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract on January 7, 2026, long positions decreased by 3,185 lots, and short positions decreased by 980 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 325,966 lots, up 5.79% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, long positions decreased by 103 lots, and short positions decreased by 7,302 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 3,244,344 lots, up 12.02% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - For precious metals ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,067.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,118 tons, down 236 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 7, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -5.62 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,003.04 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 51.78, up 0.23% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.74, down 4.00% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 7, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 63,134 kilograms, up 42.67% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 823,590 kilograms, down 6.05% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 2,130 kilograms [7].

Economic Data - The initial estimate of the US GDP for Q3 shows a significant annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3%, surpassing the market expectation of 3.3%, marking the fastest growth in two years [2] - Strong consumer spending was the primary driver of this growth, with a notable acceleration to 3.5% for the quarter [2] - The core PCE price index increased by 2.9% in Q3 [2] - In October, both core capital goods orders and shipments in the US showed a rebound [2] - Hassett, a potential candidate for the Federal Reserve chair, noted that the AI boom is contributing to economic growth while simultaneously lowering inflation, indicating that the US is lagging behind other central banks in terms of interest rate cuts [2] Futures Market - On December 23, 2025, the main gold futures contract opened at 999.36 CNY/gram and closed at 1014.24 CNY/gram, reflecting a change of 1.34% from the previous trading day [15] - The trading volume for gold on that day was 41,087 contracts, with an open interest of 129,725 contracts [15] - The main silver futures contract opened at 16,200 CNY/kilogram and closed at 16,441 CNY/kilogram, showing a change of 1.43% [15] - The trading volume for silver was 1,230,157 contracts, with an open interest of 340,510 contracts [15] Bond Market - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was recorded at 4.163%, with a change of +0.2 basis points from the previous trading day [16] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.633%, increasing by 2.77 basis points [16] Precious Metals Holdings - As of December 22, 2025, the gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,064.56 tons, while silver ETF holdings increased by 533 tons to 16,599 tons [18] Trading Strategies - For gold, a cautiously bullish stance is recommended, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 990 CNY/gram and 1,050 CNY/gram [21] - For silver, a neutral position is suggested, with a price range forecasted between 16,600 CNY/kilogram and 17,600 CNY/kilogram, while cautioning against potential profit-taking risks at high levels [22]

Market Analysis - Russia-Ukraine negotiation process continues, and the ECB ends its easing policy. Putin agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations and states conditions for halting armed actions. The ECB strengthens the market's expectation of the end of the current interest rate cut cycle [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 27, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 947.00 yuan/gram, closed at 947.16 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 946.90 yuan/gram, down 0.03% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 12,250.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 12,525.00 yuan/kilogram, up 2.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,827,650 lots, and the open interest was 427,960 lots. The night session closed at 12,490 yuan/kilogram, down 0.28% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 27, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.988%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.527%, up 1.03 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes on the SHFE - On November 27, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, long positions changed by 979 lots, and short positions changed by 2,210 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 346,227 lots, down 23.63% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2602 contract, long positions changed by 1,792 lots, and short positions changed by 1,933 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 2,287,902 lots, up 11.53% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,045.43 tons, up 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,582 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 27, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -8.08 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,412.49 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was about 75.62, down 2.33% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 79.19, down 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 46,178 kilograms, down 19.28% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 864,016 kilograms, up 29.27% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 59,190 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Due to concerns about the US economic slowdown and the possibility of further interest rate cuts in December, the gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern. The Au2602 contract may fluctuate between 920 yuan/gram and 970 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The macro logic is similar to that of gold. Due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold, and the tight spot market drives the gold-silver ratio to narrow. The silver price is also expected to be in a slightly bullish and volatile pattern, with the Ag2602 contract fluctuating between 12,200 yuan/kilogram and 12,700 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels - Options: Hold off

Report Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [9] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [10] - Options: On hold [10] Core View - Market risk sentiment is emerging, and the expectation that Hassett may become the Fed Chairman is rising, which may increase the demand for gold investment. Gold prices are expected to be in a range of 940 - 980 yuan/gram. Silver prices are expected to be in a range of 12300 - 12800 yuan/kilogram, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. House of Representatives will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on Wednesday evening, which may end the 43-day government shutdown. The shutdown may reduce Q4 economic growth by two percentage points, and the October CPI and employment reports may not be released. Hassett said he would accept the nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chairman and hopes for a larger rate cut in December [2]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 12, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 945.76 yuan/gram, down 0.33% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 41087 lots and an open interest of 129725 lots. The night session closed at 963.32 yuan/gram, up 1.86% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures closed at 12073 yuan/kilogram, up 1.62% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 669617 lots and an open interest of 235542 lots. The night session closed at 12508 yuan/kilogram, up 3.60% from the afternoon session [3]. U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 12, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.069%, up 0.2 BP from the previous day, and the 10-2 year spread was 0.507%, down 0.9 BP from the previous day [4]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 12, 2025, on the Au2512 contract, long positions decreased by 5535 lots and short positions decreased by 879 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts decreased by 8.42% from the previous day. On the Ag2512 contract, long positions increased by 5210 lots and short positions increased by 1601 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts increased by 8.09% from the previous day [5]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the gold ETF holdings were 1046.36 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the silver ETF holdings were 15089 tons, also unchanged from the previous day [6]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 12, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 2.24 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1184.64 yuan/kilogram. The SHFE gold-silver ratio was about 78.34, down 1.92% from the previous day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 80.75, down 0.91% from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Analysis - On November 12, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51666 kilograms, down 18.05% from the previous day, and the trading volume of silver was 870430 kilograms, up 20.04% from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 29970 kilograms [8].