Economic Resilience and Growth - China's economy demonstrated significant resilience in April amidst a complex international environment, with multiple core indicators showing positive changes, indicating both resilience and structural breakthroughs [1] Consumer Trends - There is a noticeable recovery in consumption and an upgrade in service consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods showing a significant year-on-year growth, particularly in communication equipment and home appliances, which saw growth rates exceeding 19% and 13% respectively [3] - The trend towards green and smart products is evident, driven by policies such as trade-in programs, and offline consumption in leisure and dining sectors is also on the rise, reflecting an increasing attractiveness of the Chinese consumer market globally [3] Industrial Growth - Industrial growth is showing resilience, particularly in high-tech industries, with industrial added value and manufacturing growth exceeding 6%. The automotive manufacturing sector, especially in new energy vehicles, has seen remarkable growth [5] - Despite a decline in international commodity prices, the price drop in certain sectors is narrowing, indicating strong investment in infrastructure and equipment renewal, supported by a significant increase in local government bond issuance [5] Foreign Trade Dynamics - Foreign trade resilience is evident, with structural optimization occurring despite U.S. tariffs. Exports exceeded market expectations, particularly to ASEAN and India, while the share of exports to the U.S. is declining [7] - Policies supporting trade diversification have been effective, with integrated circuit exports showing a year-on-year growth of over 20% [7] Price Stability and Financial Environment - Overall price levels and the financial environment remain stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a shift from decline to increase in April, and core CPI remaining stable [9] - The financing scale in April indicates that net financing of government bonds has become a major driving force, with measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts injecting long-term liquidity into the economy [9] Future Outlook - The economic data from April suggests that new momentum is being cultivated amidst challenges, with a focus on boosting confidence, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing innovation to transform external pressures into opportunities for upgrading the economy [9]

Group 1 - China's economy demonstrated significant resilience in April, with multiple core indicators showing positive changes despite a complex international environment and ongoing tariff wars [4][24]. - The recovery of domestic demand and the trend of consumption structure upgrading are evident, with notable increases in service consumption and high-end products such as travel and luxury goods [7][11]. Group 2 - Industrial growth showed remarkable resilience, particularly in high-tech industries, with industrial value-added and manufacturing growth exceeding 6%, and a significant increase in the production of new energy vehicles [11][14]. - Foreign trade resilience is highlighted by the growth of high-tech manufacturing profits, which supported the quality and efficiency of the industrial economy, despite tariff pressures [14][16]. Group 3 - The overall price and financial environment remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a shift from decline to increase, and financial support for the real economy being continuously strengthened [18][21]. - The economic data from April indicates that China is cultivating new momentum amid challenges, with consumption recovery, optimized export structure, and precise policy support being core drivers [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [7] Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing increased performance differentiation, highlighting the importance of operational management and business strategy [3] - In 2024, the food and beverage sector is expected to achieve a modest single-digit growth, with revenue and net profit growth rates slowing down, indicating ongoing demand pressure [3][10] - Structural growth opportunities exist in sub-sectors like beverages and snacks, with some products/channels showing year-on-year growth rates exceeding 30% [3] Summary by Sections Overall Food and Beverage Industry - In 2024, the food and beverage sector achieved revenue of CNY 10,877.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.91%, with a slowdown of 4.06 percentage points [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached CNY 2,104.49 billion, growing by 6.07%, but also showing a slowdown of 10.35 percentage points [10] - The industry ranked 10th and 9th in revenue and net profit growth among 31 first-level industries [10] Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - The baijiu industry saw revenue and profit growth exceeding 7% in 2024, with over half of A-share listed companies reporting growth [21] - High-end baijiu brands are shifting towards mid-to-high-end markets, with notable growth in brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye [21][24] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the mid-range segment, with companies adopting diverse strategies to maintain market share [22][24] Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is characterized by strong performance from functional beverages, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage leading with a revenue growth of 40.63% [26][28] - The market is facing challenges from health-conscious consumer trends and competition from tea beverages [26] - Companies are encouraged to innovate and diversify their product offerings to adapt to changing consumer preferences [27] Snacks - The snack industry is experiencing significant growth, particularly through community group buying and e-commerce channels [29] - Companies like Wancheng Group and Yanjinpuzi are expanding rapidly, with Wancheng Group's revenue from snack stores increasing by 262.94% [29] - However, some companies face pressure due to declining foot traffic in physical stores and intense competition [30] Condiments - The condiment sector is benefiting from cost reductions and the expansion of compound condiments, with major players like Haitian Flavor Industry reporting strong performance [32][33] - The industry is expected to accelerate product upgrades and national expansion as the restaurant sector recovers [32] Beer - The beer industry is seeing a slowdown in consumption upgrades, but there are still growth opportunities in the craft beer segment [34][35] - Companies are focusing on product innovation and market penetration to adapt to changing consumer demands [34][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 12.8% and a net profit growth of 17.3% for the fiscal year 2024, with a slight decline in Q4 2024 revenue and net profit [7] - For Q1 2025, revenue and net profit increased by 7.7% and 6.2% respectively, with a rise in sales expense ratio impacting profit growth [7] - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns with a dividend payout ratio of 60% for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.0% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 31,928 in 2023 to 36,011 in 2024, and further to 40,058 in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 11.24% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 10,438 in 2023 to 12,243 in 2024, and to 13,470 in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.93% and 17.29% respectively [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 8.56 in 2023 to 10.04 in 2024, and to 11.04 in 2025 [1] Product and Regional Performance - The company's liquor revenue grew by 13.0% in 2024, with the Qinghua product line increasing by approximately 15% [7] - Revenue growth was observed both domestically and internationally, with increases of 11.7% and 13.8% respectively [7] - The company has implemented strict inventory control, leading to improved gross margin performance, with a gross margin of 76.2% for 2024 [7] Cost and Expense Management - The sales net profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0% due to enhancements in gross margin and a decrease in tax rates [7] - Sales and management expenses increased by 15.8% and 23.6% respectively, attributed to personnel expansion and salary increases [7] Future Profitability Outlook - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 13.5 billion RMB for 2025 and 15.4 billion RMB for 2026, with growth rates of 10% and 14% respectively [7] - The projected net profit for 2027 is 18.1 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [7]

Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 7.593 billion yuan, with a profit growth of 25% to 548 million yuan and a slight increase in net profit attributable to shareholders to 193 million yuan [1] - The company's three main business segments, department stores, shopping centers, and outlets, generated revenues of 420 million yuan, 540 million yuan, and 430 million yuan respectively [1] - The domestic consumption market is showing positive changes due to a series of policies, with a significant acceleration in the growth rate of social retail sales at the beginning of 2025 [1] Business Strategy - The company aims to leverage a "one core engine and two wings" strategy centered on commercial retail, enhancing asset and capital operations to create sustainable growth [2] - The company is focusing on brand empowerment and marketing innovation to build a competitive advantage in the commercial ecosystem [2] - The company has initiated a "brand joint business plan" with 21 brand groups and 44 brands to deepen collaboration through six support areas including space, membership, data, financing, sales incentives, and training [1][2] Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The company has introduced the Dunhuang IP for a themed Spring Festival marketing campaign, enhancing consumer interaction with national culture through various events [2] - The company reported a more than 10% year-on-year increase in restaurant sales during the first two days of March, driven by the participation of nearly 400 dining merchants in Shanghai [2] - The company is actively promoting all-category consumption vitality in core business circles, creating new commercial spaces and innovative consumer experiences [3] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue deepening its innovation strategy focused on "branding, digitalization, and specialization" to provide comprehensive solutions for the industry [3] - The company aims to implement a "data-driven + organizational-driven + capital-driven" approach to adapt to the new consumption era [3]

4月29日，港股市场低开高走，新能源车、社交、短视频、餐饮连锁、传媒等大消费方向弹性居前。港 股消费指数成分股中，零跑汽车涨超7%，美团-W、理想汽车-W涨超3%，中升控股、百胜中国、哔哩 哔哩-W、吉利汽车、阅文集团。港股消费ETF（159735）当前折价0.67%买入性价比凸显。 相关产品：港股消费ETF（159735）。 消息面上，有调研报告显示，中国消费品和零售行业正迎来消费结构升级带来的深刻变革。从居民消费 结构看，服务性消费占比上升，交通、教育等领域需求增长显著。同时，人口老龄化和家庭小型化推动 消费偏好转向情绪价值和质价比，健康与数字消费理念逐渐渗透各年龄段。从消费者需求趋势看，情绪 价值、质价比及可持续消费成为核心诉求。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 港股消费ETF（159735）跟踪港股消费指数，是"更新的消费"，相较A股消费以白酒高端消费为主，港 股消费板块中电商、餐饮、旅游、文娱传媒、国潮服装等新型消费比例更高，服务消费和大众消费占比 也更高，或更能充分反映本轮大力提振消费政策驱动下的消费景气复苏。 平安证券表示，近期的政治局会议强调了"支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸"等方向，明确提出 ...

以下文章来源于新经销 ，作者赵胜男 新经销 . 专注于中国消费品领域新媒体，对通路营销、渠道数字化及新零售领域进行专业研究及媒体报道。 国家统计局日前公布的数据显示，2024年，中国社会消费品零售总额487895亿元，比上年增长 3.5%，但这一数字背后却难掩行业的深层裂变。 传统零售业态持续承压，线上线下融合加速、新兴模式冲击加剧，一场关于生存与转型的战役悄然打 响。 图片来源：walmart 据「新经销」统计的31家零售上市企业中，仅10家实现营收增长，13家利润增长，分化格局进一步凸 显。 全球化企业凭借全渠道布局逆势突围，而依赖传统模式的企业则在成本高企与消费疲软中艰难挣 扎。 从沃尔玛全球电商销售额突破300亿美元，到名创优品海外营收占比近40%；从苏宁易购扣非净利润亏 损超10亿元，到国美零售营收同比骤降26.76%—— 财报数据的冰火两重天，折射出零售行业剧变期 的残酷真相。 电商渗透率攀升、即时消费需求爆发、低价折扣业态崛起，正在重塑消费者行为与行业竞争逻辑。 | | | | | 2024年上市零售企业财报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Insights - The China International Consumer Products Expo (CICPE), also known as the "Consumer Expo," has become the largest consumer goods exhibition in the Asia-Pacific region since its inception in 2021, providing a significant platform for global enterprises to access the Chinese market and for Chinese companies to expand internationally [3][4] Group 1: Expo Overview - The CICPE is China's first national-level exhibition focused on consumer goods, aimed at promoting global consumer product display and trade [4] - The expo reflects the continuous expansion and upgrading of China's consumer market, which is now the second-largest in the world [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Participation - The number of participating brands has increased from 2,628 in the first expo to over 4,100 in the fifth expo, with representation from 71 countries and regions, including 65 Fortune 500 companies [7] - The expo highlights the growing importance of service-oriented consumption, with a focus on sectors such as health, elderly care, and AI [7][8] Group 3: Economic Impact and Future Projections - By 2035, it is projected that service-oriented consumption will account for approximately 55% of total consumption in China, indicating significant growth potential [10] - The expo serves as a platform for international brands to enter the Chinese market while promoting Chinese quality products abroad, enhancing the integration of domestic and international markets [10][12] Group 4: Regional Development and Policy Synergy - The CICPE is instrumental in supporting Hainan's development as an international tourism consumption center, driving innovation in various sectors such as duty-free shopping and medical tourism [13][14] - The expo aims to enhance international cooperation, particularly with RCEP regions, to address the challenges of international product and service supply in Hainan [14]