12月16日，北京市统计局发布1-11月北京消费市场运行情况，根据数据显示，1-11月，全市消费市场有所好转，市场总消费额同比增长 1.4%，较1-10月提升0.1个百分点。 其中， 服务性消费平稳增长 ，社会消费品零售总额（以下简称社零总额）降幅略有收窄。受"双十一"促 销活动提前释放部分消费需求等因素影响，11月当月社零总额下降2.1%，较上月有所回落，但10月和11月两月平均增长5.3%，为今年以来各 月较高水平。 等你来投！《清华金融评论》2026年1月刊 "十五五"开局：长短协同 保持经济增长在合理区间 01 02 一、服务性消费平稳增长，信息、交通消费表现较好 1-11月，全市服务性消费额同比增长4.8%。数字技术与消费领域融合加深，互联网直播、游戏及生活服务带动信息服务性消费额两位数增 长。旅游出行保持活跃，航空、铁路客运量持续提升，旅行社及相关服务行业收入增长超1成。文化娱乐服务供给更加丰富，电影、演出市场 票房收入均实现两位数增长。 二、社零总额降幅略有收窄，部分升级类和基本生活类商品保持较好增长 1-11月，全市实现社零总额12492.9亿元，同比下降3.1%，降幅较1-10月收窄0.1个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The joint notification from the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau aims to strengthen collaboration between commerce and finance to boost and expand consumption in China [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The notification outlines 11 policy measures across three main areas, encouraging the synergy of government, finance, and enterprises to promote consumption through diverse activities and information sharing [1][2]. - Local commerce departments are encouraged to utilize existing funding channels to conduct consumption promotion activities, enhancing the effectiveness of financial support [2]. - The notification emphasizes the importance of financial institutions in supporting key consumption areas, including health, culture, and new consumption fields like digital and green consumption [2][3]. Group 2: New Consumption Development - The notification promotes the development of new consumption models, focusing on risk control and commercial sustainability, and encourages financial support for emerging sectors such as green and digital consumption [2][3]. - It highlights the role of digital RMB smart contracts and improved inbound payment convenience to empower cities with active consumption ecosystems [3]. Group 3: Upgrading Consumption - The notification calls for enhanced financial services for durable goods and digital products, aiming to meet consumer demand for upgrades [4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to collaborate with platforms and key merchants to improve payment services, including installment plans and digital RMB [4]. - Policies supporting trade integration and cross-border supply chain financing are emphasized to facilitate the entry of quality foreign products into the domestic market [4]. Group 4: Economic Context - The notification is part of broader macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting domestic demand, with recent indicators showing positive trends in consumer prices and production [5]. - The Ministry of Commerce plans to work with financial authorities to ensure the effective implementation of these measures, contributing to a strong start for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5].

骑牛看熊发现随着年底临近，机构布局新财年，2026 年看多食品饮料板块。展望2026 年有以下三个判断：1）红利属性体现，估值仍有空间。2）C 端消费 仍是行业基本盘，但B 端和商务场景或复苏更快。3）健康创新品类和数字化供应链。随着居民收入水平的提升和消费观念的转变，消费结构不断升级。高 端消费、体验式服务、银发经济等新的消费增长点不断涌现。大消费板块通常具有"低估值、滞涨和业绩稳健"的特性。当前消费板块的估值处于历史低位， 一些细分行业和个股的估值与股价都处于底部位置，具有较大的估值修复空间。 三大指数集体低开，两市超3000股下跌，题材板块方面新零售、免税概念、影视院线等板块表现较强，消费电子、IT设备、电池等板块表现较差。零售板块 延续强势，东百集团4连板，永辉超市、汇嘉时代等多股涨停，南京商旅、步步高等纷纷涨幅靠前，全国零售业创新发展大会12月9日至10日在北京举行，商 务部副部长盛秋平表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实现高质 量发展。 海南自贸概念震荡反弹，罗牛山涨停，海南瑞泽、海汽集团等纷纷跟涨，海南自贸港将于12 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported significant growth in digital payment transactions in Q3, indicating a recovery in consumer spending and a shift in payment habits [1][3] Group 1: Non-Cash Payment Statistics - In Q3, banks processed 1,685.08 billion non-cash payment transactions amounting to 150.34 trillion yuan, while in the same period of 2024, the figures were 1,545.16 billion transactions and 132.24 trillion yuan, showing a substantial increase compared to Q2 [3] - Electronic payment transactions reached 775.54 billion, totaling 82.30 trillion yuan, with online payments at 181.4 billion transactions (67.80 trillion yuan) and mobile payments at 556.94 billion transactions (12.99 trillion yuan) [3] Group 2: Trends in Payment Methods - The increase in transaction amounts, despite a slight decline in transaction numbers, suggests a recovery in third-party payment transactions, particularly in large online payments, indicating a shift towards higher-value transactions [4] - Analysts noted that consumers are increasingly opting for larger purchases or accumulating high-frequency small payments, reflecting an upgrade in consumption structure and a growing demand for high-quality goods and services [4][5] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is transitioning from a focus on transaction volume to transaction value, with payment institutions prioritizing the enhancement of each transaction's worth rather than merely increasing transaction counts [5] - Companies like Tencent and Lakala reported growth in commercial payment amounts, driven by strong online payment growth and improved trends in offline payments, particularly in retail and transportation sectors [5] Group 4: Challenges in Traditional Payment Methods - Despite the growth in QR code transactions, traditional card transaction volumes are declining, with Lakala reporting a 13.72% drop in card transaction amounts [6] - Regulatory measures targeting illegal practices in card transactions have led to a contraction in traditional payment models, while increased competition in the domestic market is squeezing profit margins [6] - Future trends indicate that QR code payments will dominate the small payment market, especially among small and micro merchants, while card payment processing will continue to face pressure [6]

（原标题：内需"双引擎"扩容提质 增长新动能释放新潜力——2025年终经济观察） 证券时报记者 贺觉渊 2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。在高度不确定性的外部环境下，由消费和投资组成的内需"双引擎"继 续推动国民经济运行保持平稳，且消费结构持续升级，投资结构不断优化，为今后释放内需潜力积蓄动 能。在受访专家学者看来，若进一步加大扩内需政策力度，内需潜力有望持续释放，更大程度发挥消费 和投资对经济增长的拉动作用。 服务消费扩容提质 在提振消费专项行动各项措施作用下，今年以来商品消费稳步扩大，同时旅游出行、文化体育、网上消 费持续活跃，为消费扩大注入新的动力。今年前10个月，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.3%，服务零 售额增长5.3%。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》已将"居民消费率明显提高，内需 拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强"作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标。尽管有效需求不足的 局面仍有待破解，但今年以来的消费结构升级与投资结构优化，将为"十五五"开局之年积蓄动能。 中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部主任孙学工近日表示，明年国内大市场潜力将进一步释放。居民消费能 力和消费结构 ...

庞溟（国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员） 随着中国经济进入新阶段，居民消费率的提高将成为宏观调控、增长内涵和发展质量新的重要的观察指 标和定量目标，并有望作为衡量经济内生动力和社会民生改善的重要参照。 展望后续，预期各项促消费政策将聚焦于五个重点领域，为消费市场的持续扩容提供坚实支撑： 大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策推行一年多来，在稳投资、扩消费、促转型、惠民生等方面取得 明显成效，特别是以旧换新带热了多元消费需求。展望2026年，预期相关政策在结构上将更为突出和提 升服务消费的比重。这意味着政策导向正在从单纯的商品消费扩展到教育、医疗、养老、文旅等服务领 域，更加注重满足居民多样化、品质化的消费需求，推动消费结构进一步优化，带动相关产业链的升级 和扩展，形成新的增长点。 近日，财政部、商务部发布《关于开展消费新业态新模式新场景试点工作的通知》，宣布将支持50个左 右城市开展试点工作，包括4个直辖市、5个计划单列市和部分省会城市，以及若干文旅资源相对丰富的 其他城市。与以往单一的消费促进政策不同，本次试点明确提出新业态、新模式、新场景三维度，强调 财政资金不仅要支持传统消费扩容，更要引导地方在数字化、智 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as a dual engine of consumption and investment in driving China's economic growth, particularly in the context of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the uncertain external environment [1][6]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - Service consumption is expanding and improving, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.3% year-on-year and service retail sales growing by 5.3% in the first ten months of the year [2]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, generating over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales and benefiting more than 360 million people [2]. - The proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is projected to reach 46.1% in 2024, with a further increase to 46.8% in the first three quarters of this year, indicating a shift towards service consumption as a key growth driver [2]. Group 2: Investment Structure - Fixed asset investment, excluding real estate, grew by 1.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with manufacturing investment increasing by 2.7% [4]. - High-tech industries, particularly in information services and aerospace, are experiencing rapid investment growth, while overall investment growth is slowing [4]. - The impact of fiscal policies, such as special bonds and long-term loans, is expected to support investment growth, although the immediate effects may not be realized until early next year [5][8]. Group 3: Policy Support - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan service consumption and pension refinancing facility, indicating a shift in macro policy focus towards service consumption [3]. - The government is implementing various policies to enhance service consumption, including subsidies and support for sectors like elderly care and cultural tourism [3]. - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan aims to significantly increase the role of domestic demand in economic growth, with a focus on improving consumption rates [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce have announced a pilot program to support around 50 cities in exploring new consumption models, aiming to enhance domestic demand and respond to the trend of consumption structure upgrading [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The pilot program emphasizes three dimensions: new business formats, new models, and new scenarios, moving beyond traditional consumption promotion policies [2][3]. - The policy framework includes support for cutting-edge areas such as the "first-release economy," diversified service consumption scenarios, and cross-industry collaborations with well-known IPs [2][3]. - Financial support is designed to be performance-based, with funding distributed in two batches according to city size and linked to performance evaluations [3]. Group 2: City Selection and Strategy - The selection of 50 pilot cities balances leadership and equity, including four direct-controlled municipalities and five separately planned cities, as well as key regional cities [3][4]. - Different levels of cities are encouraged to adopt differentiated strategies based on their unique advantages, avoiding homogeneous competition and fostering a diverse new consumption landscape [4][5]. - Major cities should focus on attracting high-quality consumption resources and enhancing global influence, while provincial capitals and regional centers should develop into regional consumption hubs [4][5]. Group 3: Implementation and Expected Outcomes - Cities rich in cultural and tourism resources should integrate cultural heritage with modern consumption scenarios, enhancing the cultural value of consumption through immersive experiences and night economies [5]. - The pilot program aims to create a collaborative policy system that drives innovation, industry, and regional synergy, with a focus on sustainable development of historical and cultural heritage [5]. - Successful implementation of the pilot can stimulate short-term consumption and explore replicable experiences for expanding domestic demand, contributing to high-quality economic development in China [5].

"消费场景"这个词儿或许你听过，近年来我国出台的相关政策多次就创新消费场景提出要求，各地也有不少创新尝试。比如，北京798文化园区推出的复合 式VR院线，就是一种新的数字文化消费场景。在实景搭建的VR沉浸展里，戴上特制的眼镜，你就可以在海洋、火星等不同时空里，来一场沉浸式体验之 旅。 央视网消息（焦点访谈）：最近，大家注意到，相关部门和一些地方又相继出台了一系列提振消费的新政策，来激发新活力。消费是中国经济增长的重要引 擎，特别是在外部环境不确定性增加的背景下，扩大内需、增强消费对经济的拉动作用至关重要。"十五五"规划建议中，大力提振消费也被置于更加突出的 位置，并提出一系列重大部署。那么，我国的消费市场有怎样的优势和潜力？怎么能更好地发挥消费引擎的作用呢？ 今年大热的AI玩具你玩儿过吗？融合了最新的大语言模型技术，这些玩具可以实现高度拟人化交互体验。通俗地说，就是它可以更好地与你互动。这些玩 具可不仅仅是给小朋友玩儿的，像是AI下棋机器人、AI陪伴机器人、AI宠物等也备受成年人欢迎。京东数据显示，2025年上半年，AI玩具销量同比增长超 200%，迅速成为消费市场的"新宠"。 技术变革激发新型消费，正成为新 ...

◎记者 陈芳 消费是经济增长的"主引擎"，也是民生幸福的"晴雨表"。进入年底消费旺季，商家、店家通过IP联名、 首发首秀、丰富业态等方式加力促消费；财政贴息、以旧换新等政策红利不断释放，进一步激活消费。 近日，上海证券报记者通过实地探访，体验新消费业态，追踪消费市场的新活力和新趋势，感受消 费"主动力"释放的强大动能。 适配性增强 新业态蓬勃发展 在北京东城区的龙潭中湖公园里，市民王先生跑步前，先站在智能健身步道起点处，面向马拉松智能打 卡杆"刷脸"识别，随后运动里程、平均配速等数据实时同步至手机。他感叹道："跑道智慧升级后，更 具'未来感'。" 戴上AI（人工智能）+AR（增强现实）一体式眼镜，演讲时能轻松"脱稿"；登录在线旅游平台，AI导游 可以快速生成目的地旅游攻略；进入酒店，送餐机器人不仅可以远程按电梯，还可以和旅客互动、打招 呼……"人工智能+消费"场景不断扩展。 面向未来，新业态、新模式增长空间巨大。工业和信息化部、商务部等六部门近日联合印发的《关于增 强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》提出，鼓励开发家庭服务机器人、智能家电和人工智 能手机、电脑、玩具、眼镜、脑机接口等人工智能终端，以智 ...