Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with strong sales collection [5] - The company is focusing on channel reform to enhance its market position [1][5] - The main brand is developing multiple product lines while creating flagship products in other liquor categories [6] - The company is expected to maintain its pricing strategy and restore channel confidence, leading to a recovery in brand value [8] Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 891.75 billion and 318.53 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7% and 5% [5] - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 369.40 billion and 148.60 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of 6% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 77%, with a slight year-on-year increase, while the net margin was 37%, showing a slight decline [5] - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2970% [5] Product Development - In 2024, liquor revenue reached 831.27 billion yuan, with the main product line contributing 678.75 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.07% increase [6] - The company launched new products in the 45-degree and 68-degree categories, expanding its product matrix [6] - The average price of the main products increased slightly, contributing to overall revenue growth [6] Regional Performance - Revenue from the Eastern, Southern, and Northern regions in 2024 was 312.90 billion, 393.36 billion, and 125.01 billion yuan, respectively, with the Eastern and Southern regions showing stable growth [7] - The number of distributors for the main brand and its sub-brands increased significantly, indicating a successful expansion strategy [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 8.67, 9.26, and 10.00 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [8][10]

经营节奏边际调整，价盘企稳回升 —中炬高新（600872.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 2025 年 4 月 29 日，中炬高新发布 2025 年一季报。2025Q1 营 收 11.02 亿元（同减 26%），归母净利润 1.81 亿元（同减 24%），扣非归母净利润 1.80 亿元（同减 24%）。 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资要点 ▌成本下降优化毛利，广宣费投提升 2025Q1 毛利率同增 2pct 至 38.73%，主要系原材料价格下降 所 致 。销售 / 管 理 费 用 率 分 别 同 增 1pct/2pct 至 8.62%/8.07%，主要系公司战略性调控大单品费用投入，同时 收入下滑致使费用率摊薄效果减弱。2025Q1 净利率同减 1pct 至 16.46%。 ▌库存去化顺利，价盘企稳回升 2025Q1 酱油/鸡精鸡粉/食用油营收分别为 6.48/1.30/0.51 亿元，分别同减 32%/29%/50%，主要系春节错期下，公司调 整供货节奏，同时以稳价盘为中心推进去库调整。二季度以 来公司降幅收窄，库存恢复至良性水平，公司逐步向终端释 放促销资源，主品价盘企稳回升，此外， ...

4月27日晚，家电巨头格力电器发布了2024年年报和2025年一季报。年报数据显示，2024年格力电器营业总收入1900.38 亿元，同比下滑7.31%。不 过，在营收下滑的情况下，格力电器净利润却录得正增长。另外，格力电器此次年报延续了其一贯的高分红做法，拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红 利20元。 2024年6月28日，格力电器董事长董明珠在公司2023年年度股东大会上表示："格力是一个负责任的企业，我们争取每年分红的决心不会动摇，这也 是格力交给每一位股东的承诺与'定心丸'。"董明珠表示，不能忘记"晴带雨伞，饱带干粮"，企业的持续性发展和股东的利益，格力都要维护。 年报发布当天（2025年4月27日），董明珠健康家官方视频号宣布，格力已经在陕西省开设50家门店。 4月22日晚间，格力电器发布公告称，公司当日召开董事会会议，会议审议通过选举董明珠为公司第十三届董事会董事长。这意味着，71岁的董明珠 将开启她第五个三年任期。 针对2025年经营计划，格力电器表示，聚焦产品驱动全域增长，多维布局助力营销突破。深化终端建设，积极响应市场需求，加速全国全品类专卖 店焕新升级，提升品牌形象与市场竞争力。打造精准的产品 ...

公司点评 | 静待渠道改革见效 | | --- | ——三只松鼠 25Q1 点评 主要观点： ➢ 25Q1 收入符合市场预期。 ⚫ 收入：春节错期扰动 | | | ➢ 分渠道看，线上面临高基数压力，预计营收增速同比持平。根据久谦 数据，公司 25Q1 猫京抖 GMV 合计同比下降 0.9%。线下渠道改革 顺 利 ， 预 计 同 比 实 现 双 位 数 增 长 。 去 除 春 节 影 响 ， 营 收 端 "24Q4+25Q1"合计同比增长 16.2%，仍处于快速增长。 ⚫ 利润：渠道费用投入阶段性加大 ➢ 25Q1 公司毛利率同比下降 0.66pct 至 26.74%，销售/管理/研发/财务 费率分别同比+2.41/+0.43/持平/-0.03pct。其中，毛利率下降与销售 费率上升，预计主因渠道改革导致费用投入力度加大；管理费率上升 预计主因研发中心转固导致折旧摊销费用上升。综上，公司归母净利 率同比下降 2.04pct 至 6.42%。 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入" ➢ 我们的观点： 公司线下渠道改革稳步推进，长尾性价比产品矩阵充分满足 BCD 类 商超需求痛点，通过并购爱折扣切入硬折扣业态，营收仍有额外增量 ...

2025 年 5 月 3 日 公司研究 25Q1 业绩承压，关注后续经营改善节奏 ——中炬高新（600872.SH）2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 当前价：19.29 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.83 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 151.08 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 16.08/30.20 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 77.88% | 股价相对走势 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -4.37 | -6.52 | -37.70 | | 绝对 | -7.30 | ...

口子窖（603198.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 基本盘稳固 静待改革红利释放 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 年全年公司实现营收/ 归母净利润 60.15/16.55 亿元，同比+0.89%/-3.83%；经计算，24Q4 实现营收 /归母净利润 16.53/3.45 亿元，同比+9.02%/-7.55%；25Q1 实现营收/归母净 利润 18.10/6.10 亿元，同比+2.42%/+3.59%。 ➢ 兼系列省内外招商汇量，省内精耕细作、省外聚焦核心市场。分产品看：酒 类主营 58.76 亿元，同比+0.46%，量增+2.76%，价增-2.24%。毛利率 74.33%， 同比-0.59pcts。其中：①高档白酒(年份系列/兼系列/小池窖等)24 年实现营收 56.81 亿元，同比+0.06%，量增+5.37%，价增-5.04%，吨价下移或系兼系列推 广期费用投放直接抵减收入所致。毛利率-0.22pcts 至 75.65%，在酒类主营业 务中占比-0.39pcts 至 96.69%。25Q1 高档白酒 17.28 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 139.84 CNY, based on a reasonable valuation level of 16 times the earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 36.94 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion CNY, up 5.80% year-on-year [9]. - The potential of channel reform is underestimated, with a flat organizational structure enhancing market responsiveness. The company added 16,000 core terminals in 2024 and increased the number of specialty stores from 1,662 to 1,786 [9]. - The company achieved a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2024, aligning with its commitment to shareholder returns [9]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 93.895 billion CNY, 101.898 billion CNY, and 108.848 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 8.5%, and 6.8% [3]. - The EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are 8.74 CNY, 9.63 CNY, and 10.39 CNY, respectively [2][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 77.1% in 2024 to 78.4% in 2027 [3]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 28, 2025, was 130.85 CNY, with a 52-week high of 175.22 CNY and a low of 104.23 CNY [4]. - The company has shown a relative performance of 0.48% over the past month, outperforming the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index by 1.62% [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 139.84 CNY, maintaining the rating based on the current valuation levels [2][10][4]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 36.94 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion CNY, up 5.80% year-on-year. The main brand's revenue grew by 8.07% to 67.88 billion CNY, while series liquor revenue increased by 11.79% to 15.25 billion CNY [9]. - The potential of channel reform is underestimated, with a flat organizational structure enhancing market responsiveness. The company added 16,000 core terminals in 2024 and increased the number of specialty stores from 1,662 to 1,786 [9]. - The company achieved a dividend payout ratio of 70% in 2024, aligning with its commitment to shareholder returns, and aims to enhance market share in 2025 [9]. Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 have been adjusted downwards, while gross margin and sales expense ratios have been revised upwards. The expected EPS for 2025-2027 is 8.74 CNY, 9.63 CNY, and 10.39 CNY respectively [2][10]. - The company’s reasonable valuation level is estimated at a 16x P/E ratio for 2025, corresponding to the target price of 139.84 CNY [2][10]. - The financial performance metrics indicate a projected revenue of 93.90 billion CNY in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, exceeding expectations with revenue and net profit growth [1][3] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 36.940 billion yuan, growing 6.05% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.860 billion yuan, an increase of 5.80% [1] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 77.05%, up 1.26 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 35.72%, down 0.56 percentage points [3] Brand and Market Performance - The main brand, Wuliangye, generated revenue of 67.875 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.07% increase, while series liquor revenue was 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% [1] - The company saw a 30% increase in banquet activities for the main brand and a 52% increase for fragrant liquor banquet activities [1] Channel Reform and Organizational Structure - The company is undergoing channel reforms, with a flat organizational structure enhancing market responsiveness [2] - Revenue from the eastern region was 31.290 billion yuan, up 9.75%, while the southern region saw 39.336 billion yuan, a 12.65% increase; however, the northern region experienced a decline of 3.98% [2] - The company added 16,000 core terminals in 2024 and increased the number of specialty stores from 1,662 to 1,786 [2] Dividend Policy and Future Outlook - The total cash dividend for 2024 was 22.3 billion yuan, representing approximately 70.01% of the net profit, aligning with the company's commitment [3] - The company aims to enhance market share in 2025, targeting revenue growth in line with macroeconomic indicators [3] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 8.74, 9.63, and 10.39 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 139.84 yuan based on a 16x P/E ratio for 2025 [3]

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 谢谢谢谢谢寻寻寻 口子窖（603589）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 全年增速回正，改革仍待显效 目标价：40 元 事项： 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现总营收 60.15 亿元，同增 0.9%，归母净利润 16.55 亿元，同减 3.8%；其中单 Q4 实现总营收 16.5 亿元， 同增 9.0%，归母净利润 3.5 亿元，同减 7.5%。2025 年 Q1 实现总营收 18.1 亿 元，同增 2.4%，归母净利润 6.1 亿元，同增 3.6%；销售回款 12.0 亿元，同减 14.8%，合同负债 2.7 亿元，环比 24Q4 减少 2.9 亿元。 评论： 风险提示：新品动销不及预期、渠道改革放缓、徽酒竞争加剧。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 6,015 | 5,556 | 5,728 | 5,935 | | 同比增速(%) ...