#行情 上证综指已较4月7日（特朗普宣布“解放日”关税）行情低位反弹20%，势将进入技术性牛市。 https://t.co/6vF1V2A2t9外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):彭博汇编的数据反映中国投资者正将资金从黄金ETF转向国内股票。随着A股走强和金价升势停滞，7月份四大境内黄金ETF（华安易富、博时黄金、易方达黄金和国泰君安）合计净流出约32亿元，势创历史单月最大纪录。 https://t.co/YruiutiK5Z ...

（原标题：和讯投顾徐斌箐：新一轮牛市马上启动！3700点肯定要突破） 7月29日，和讯投顾徐斌箐称，感觉新一轮牛市马上要启动了，今天已隐约感觉到市场中有内在力量要迸发，就像火山喷发前兆，3600点已挡不 住，这波行情3700点肯定要突破。再看市场，水电站大坝板块开始走二波行情，不过相关票较多，且多为反包票，目前尚未决出最终胜负，后续 还会PK，过程随机性较强。若持有该题材板块的票，需留意那些较晚涨停或涨停力度不大的，本周内可能会逐步PK、落后淘汰，剩下的可能是 龙头，但哪个能成为真正龙头难以预判，因为这些票都比较"妖"，喜欢换手，甚至今天没涨停的票也可能卡位成功。水电板块炒到700点肯定没问 题，今天已达700点，后续不好给预期。 另外，市场最大一部分资金在做趋势票，像创新药、PCB、CPU里的核心标的以及工业机器人等板块，很多机构风格的票持续走强，在没涨停板 的情况下已走出翻倍行情，稀土板块也是如此。这种行情适合大资金，大资金锚定一只票后可反复操作使其翻倍，而连板票反而难做，今天除7板 外，中间5、4、3板基本断板。市场风格偏向机构，建议大家考虑机构票，像券商有些票已跌得差不多，可重新关注。可认真拿一波行情 ...

Market Prediction - Bull market top date is predicted to be 2025/10/06 [1] - Bear market bottom date is predicted to be 2026/10/05 [1] - Approximately 69 days remain until the end of the bull market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant afternoon rally, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 3600 points, driven by strong performances in the medical and semiconductor sectors, alongside optimistic expectations for the upcoming July Politburo meeting [2][6][12]. Market Performance - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 1.8 trillion yuan, with sectors such as medical, steel, and semiconductors leading the gains, while banking, insurance, and precious metals sectors saw corrections [5][12]. - The sudden surge in stocks, particularly in Hengsheng Electronics, was attributed to market optimism regarding capital market reforms and the potential for a comprehensive bull market [7][12]. Historical Bull Market Characteristics - Historical analysis shows that previous bull markets in A-shares occurred in 2005-2007, 2014-2015, and 2019-2021, often starting from a state of extreme investor pessimism [19][21]. - Key catalysts for bull market initiation included favorable policy changes and macroeconomic conditions, with the current market reflecting a similar setup to the late 2014 breakthrough phase [22][23]. Sector Performance in Bull Markets - Different sectors have led in past bull markets, with notable performances including: - 2005-2007: Non-ferrous metals (1267.01%), non-bank financials (1206.49%) - 2014-2015: Computers (283.28%), construction decoration (264.48%) - 2019-2021: Food and beverage (265.77%), social services (235.97%) [24]. Investment Insights - Maintaining rationality during bull markets is crucial, as the best entry points often occur during periods of low sentiment [26]. - A balanced portfolio strategy is recommended, utilizing a "barbell strategy" that combines high-dividend stocks with high-growth technology sectors [27]. - Timely profit-taking is emphasized over market timing, as historical trends indicate that greed can lead to significant losses [28]. Fund Recommendations - Suggested funds related to military, new production capabilities, and high-end manufacturing include: - Longxin National Defense Military Quantitative Mixed C - Bosera Military Theme Stock C - Yongying Technology Selected Mixed Initiation C [30].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a bullish atmosphere, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key psychological levels, but the index may not fully reflect the market's overall performance due to its heavy reliance on financial stocks [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Index Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index includes only 2,184 A-share stocks, representing less than 50% of the total 5,245 A-shares, leading to a distorted view of the market [4][5]. - Financial stocks dominate the index, with banks and non-bank financials accounting for 31.6% of the index's total market capitalization, compared to 21.9% for all A-shares [5]. - The growth style index has a weight of 20.9% in the Shanghai Composite Index, while it is 30.8% in the total A-share market, indicating a weaker response of the index to growth stocks [4][5]. Group 2: Market Opportunities - Despite the strong performance of financial stocks in the first half of the year, their relative performance has weakened as the market transitions, suggesting structural investment opportunities within the market [7]. - Nearly half of the stocks in the market have a price-to-book ratio below the median, indicating ongoing valuation differentiation and potential investment opportunities [9]. - Historical trends show that bull markets often transition from a few leading sectors to broader participation, suggesting that previously underperforming sectors may emerge as new leaders [13][15]. Group 3: Liquidity and Investment Trends - The current market liquidity is relatively abundant, with a notable increase in new A-share accounts, reaching a high not seen since 2016, and a total of 12.6 million new accounts opened in the first half of the year [16]. - The decline in bank deposit rates and the rising attractiveness of equity assets are driving a shift in resident savings towards the stock market [20][24]. - The ratio of stock market capitalization to resident savings is at a historical low, indicating potential for significant capital inflow into the stock market as the economic environment improves [24][27]. Conclusion - The market is expected to maintain abundant liquidity, with macroeconomic policies likely to support a recovery in corporate earnings, providing a sustainable driving force for the stock market [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bull market in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trends and investor psychology during periods of volatility [4][10]. Market Performance - The recent bull market lasted from the end of 2018 to the end of 2021, with the Wande All A index experiencing a maximum increase of 87.14% and a maximum drawdown of -16.4% due to the pandemic [4]. - There were 11 instances of drawdowns exceeding 5%, with an average recovery time of 38 days, and missing these recoveries could result in an average loss of 41% in potential gains [7][8]. Investor Sentiment - Investors have become more sensitive to drawdowns due to the prolonged bear market over the past three years, which has been compounded by economic downturns and declining incomes [8]. - The article suggests that to benefit from a bull market, investors must be mentally prepared to accept drawdowns, as avoiding them could lead to missed opportunities for gains [8][10]. Market Outlook - The long-term outlook remains positive, with the belief that any short-term pullbacks are likely part of the ongoing bull market rather than the start of a new bear market [10]. - The market is currently in an upward trend, supported by a positive cycle of increasing investment and market confidence [11]. Valuation and Comparison - As of July 25, the Wande All A index had a price-to-book ratio of 1.7, which is within a reasonable range compared to historical data [13]. - A-shares are relatively undervalued compared to other global indices, indicating potential for growth [15]. Policy Support - Continuous policy support from regulatory bodies is expected to maintain market stability and growth [18]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has expressed commitment to consolidating the positive market trend [18]. Capital Flow - The market is experiencing ample liquidity, with significant potential for incremental capital inflow as household savings remain high and interest rates decline [19]. - Foreign institutional investors are currently underweight in A-shares, suggesting room for increased investment from abroad [19]. Conclusion - The article concludes that in a bull market, short-term trading can be risky, and investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not exit the market prematurely [20].

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently in a bullish phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing weakness while the ChiNext and Shenzhen indices are reaching new highs, indicating a rotation structure within the market [1] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has been relatively weak, while the ChiNext has surged nearly 2%, surpassing the 2400-point mark, suggesting that the market is still in a rotation phase [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has not yet broken through the final resistance level of 3674, indicating a cautious approach as it awaits a potential breakout [1] Market Structure - The current market is characterized as a second wave of a bull market, with the expectation of a minor adjustment that may involve a slight decline to clear floating capital [1] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining a firm holding strategy despite the current pressure levels [1] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience a collective washout action among several indices before attempting to break through resistance levels [1] - The rotation of thematic stocks is expected to accelerate only after the Shanghai Composite Index surpasses the 3700-point mark [1]

Group 1 - The central bank is set to conduct a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating strong market support and a bullish sentiment among investors [1] - The market index has repeatedly broken through the 3600-point level, reflecting the determination of bulls to push prices higher despite attempts by bears to create downward pressure [1][3] - The trading volume remains significantly high, with around 1.8 trillion yuan traded, suggesting that funds are not retreating despite market fluctuations [3][7] Group 2 - The A-share market continues to show signs of rotation among sectors, with mixed performance among individual stocks, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears [5][7] - The overall market trend remains positive, with support expected around the 3550-point level, suggesting a potential for upward movement [5] - The market is characterized by a slow and steady upward trend, aligning with the characteristics of a "slow bull" market, as long as no major negative news emerges [7]

Group 1 - The central bank's sudden interest rate cut has positively impacted the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3597.94 points, a slight increase of 0.12% [1] - The ChiNext Index showed the strongest performance, rising by 0.96% and reaching a new high for the year, with a technical target of 3674 points [1][3] - The PCB sector experienced a significant rally, with Shenghong Technology's stock price increasing by over 12%, bringing its total market value to 150 billion [7] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index is steadily climbing along the five-day moving average, which has recently flattened and shows signs of a potential downward turn [5] - Historical patterns suggest that a downward turn in the five-day moving average could lead to a correction of 3-5%, translating to a drop of approximately 120 to 150 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The market is currently in a phase of high volatility, with strong competition between bullish and bearish forces, indicating that significant changes in market direction may not occur until key events unfold [3][5]

Group 1 - The current market is unpredictable, with unexpected stocks like those in the water dam sector performing well, while core sectors are struggling [1] - The innovation drug sector is showing a strong upward trend, along with PCB and CPU sectors, indicating a more stable performance compared to other areas [1] - The overall market is hovering around the 3600-point mark, suggesting a slow-moving bull market that is causing frustration among investors [1] Group 2 - Two strategies are suggested for investors: either to hold onto promising sectors for the long term or to avoid heavy investments in speculative stocks [2] - Recent trends show that stocks related to the water dam concept are still active, with potential for further movements, while other sectors like the Hainan Free Trade Zone are underperforming [2] - The artificial intelligence sector experienced a decline after initial hype, indicating that timely information and market sentiment are crucial for trading success [2]