支撑未来A股、港股牛市的，有两大宏观叙事逻辑。至少在可见的两年内，两大宏观叙事逻辑不会有任何改变。 如果你持有的公司既不符合"打造科技护城河"逻辑，又不符合降息利好方向，那就早点"换车"，以免耽误这7-8年才来一次的牛市。 大盘必过4000点 前段时间因为身体原因，没有写东西。今天咱们简单直白，直击核心。 下图是上证指数的月K线，来到前两轮牛市高点的连线附近（以下简称趋势线）。从情绪的角度来说，这条趋势线肯定是压力位。 | 时间 | 局点 | 时间 | 趋势线对应压力位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2007年10月 | 6124. 04 | 2025年8月 | 3924. 12 | | 2015年6月 | 5178. 19 | 2025年9月 | 3913.84 | | 顶部趋势线K=- 10. 28 | | 2025年10月 | 3903. 56 | | 技术分析仪供参考 | | 2025年11月 | 3893. 28 | 从剧本推演的角度来说，美联储9月降息叠加"9·24行情"一周年，是释放宏观利好的窗口；10月会有"十五五"规划的更多消息，是释放产 业利好的窗口。大资金不 ...

Industry Research - The A-share market is expected to receive multi-dimensional incremental capital support, driven by improved market profitability attracting individual investors, stable participation from industrial capital and public funds, and a potential shift of bank wealth management funds towards equity markets [4] - The performance recovery of public funds is likely to boost the issuance of equity funds [4] Company Research - Haolubo (688656.SH) is a leading company in the domestic allergy testing field, with steady revenue growth in recent years, achieving revenue of 402 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37 million yuan [7]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 当前有哪些板块值得投资者关注？ 报告摘要 牛市行情类型及演绎阶段划分 牛市行情类型：基本面驱动与流动性驱动。如果以15%涨幅为标准，2010年以来上证指数共有约11次持续 时间较久的上涨区间。每段牛市行情并非完全相似，为更好研究轮动规律，我们可以对行情做一定分类。 考虑到基本面是投资者普遍关注的重点，可将行情分为基本面驱动及流动性驱动两种类型。 牛市行情演绎阶段：可分为前中后三个阶段。当行情处在不同的阶段时，板块的轮动规律可能存在差异。 划分行情阶段时，我们主要依据上证指数有没有出现明显的回撤。无论市场行情总共演绎有几段，我们均 将第一个上涨阶段划分为前期，而将最后一个上涨阶段划分为后期，其它阶段划分为中期。 历史来看，牛市中板块轮动有何规律？ 全阶段来看，哪些板块容易存在机会？历史来看，牛市行情中不一定总是存在长期主线，长期主线的板块 特征也并不明显。如果将连续四周滚动涨幅排名均在前2名的板块定义为阶段性机会。流动性驱动行情 下，先进制造、TMT、金融容易有阶段性机会；基本面驱动行情下，消费、周期、金融更容易存在阶段性 机会。 流动性驱动行情下，前期关注金融、中期关 ...

Market Performance - The three major stock indices experienced a rebound after hitting lows, but weakened again towards the end of the trading session, with the ChiNext Index falling over 1% while the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose against the trend [1] - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.12% to 3870.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.43% to 12924.13 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.09% to 3020.42 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 0.9% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,486 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as insurance, banking, brokerage, and liquor saw declines, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, real estate, semiconductors, and steel experienced gains [1] - Active sectors included storage chips, gold concepts, and rare earth concepts [1] Market Analysis - According to Everbright Securities, the current bull market is primarily driven by liquidity and may be in its mid-term phase [1] - The performance of the economic fundamentals has not significantly influenced this market trend, indicating that liquidity is the main driving force [1] - Since the market's rise on April 8, the Shanghai Composite Index has shown minimal overall pullback, although recent adjustments have occurred [1] - Historically, bull markets do not develop instantaneously, and the current adjustment has not exceeded past levels [1] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector may become the main focus in the mid-term of the bull market, with financial sectors to be monitored as the market transitions to its later stages [1] - If the bull market shifts towards being driven by fundamentals, advanced manufacturing will be a key area of interest, with real estate also being a focus in the later stages of the market [1]

今日（9月12日），A股三大指数早盘冲高回落，盘中均创阶段新高。 近期A股市场缓步上行，今日市场虽有震荡，但有专家认为，此轮慢牛行情持续时间可能会达到两三年以 上，即使出现调整也是短期的调整，调整幅度一般在指数层面不超过10%。 三大指数再创阶段新高截至午盘，沪指涨0.24%，深成指涨0.15%，创业板指跌0.52%，三大指数盘中再创 阶段新高。沪深京三市半日成交额16487亿元，较上日放量1526亿元。全市场超3000只个股下跌。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙向记者分析指出，由于A股和港股这一轮都属于政策支持、资金推动， 慢牛行情持续时间可能会达到两三年以上，而不是一一个短期的行情。所以即使出现调整也是短期的调 整，调整幅度一般在指数层面不超过10%。 光大证券分析师张宇生、王国兴在研报中称，从历史来看，牛市行情中不一定总是存在长期主线，长期主 线的板块特征也并不明显。如果将连续四周滚动涨幅排名均在前两名的板块定义为阶段性机会。流动性驱 动行情下，先进制造、TMT、金融容易有阶段性机会；基本面驱动行情下，消费、周期、金融更容易存在 阶段性机会。 他们认为，从经济基本面的表现来看，本轮行情或许并没有受到太多 ...

股市，汇市，币市，市市大涨，今年到处都是牛的声音，A股逼近3900点，黄金今年涨幅40%以上。 1小时，金价经过震荡整理之后重启上涨，早间涨到3650美元，整体行情多头趋势没有变，依旧是回撤做多为主，而防守的点仍然是在3610美元，当这里 失守了，再考虑调整思路。 上涨过程中，有一些颠簸很正常，习惯短期慢涨或滞涨，只要结构没有发生改变，轻易别质疑牛市的结束。 今天，我认为可以在3643-40的范围内多，别等更大的回调，如果再掉下来反而说明涨不动了，向上关注3662-65美元，重点关键前高点突破情况。 自4月份，全球贸易冲突爆发之后，美联储过度担心通胀因素反弹，迟迟不推进降息，特朗普任期内贸易冲突不可避免，美联储也慢慢接受短期通胀反 弹。 恐高，多数散户的通病，担心价格太高买在山顶，从来不担心逆势做空被套，微有回调大喊狼来了，恐吓情绪互相传染，记住一点：做大放小，顺势交 易，自3310美元上涨以来，连续14次准确，没有一张空单，这就是顺势。 赚钱，就得赚趋势的钱，赚风口的钱，积少成多是伪命题，做时间的朋友才是硬道理。 周四，金价高位震荡，回踩确认3610美元强支撑，在《黄金，3630多！》文中明确指出，判断顶部 ...

2025 年 9 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】牛市中，板块轮动有何规律？——解密牛市系列之四 历史来看，流动性驱动行情下，前期关注金融、中期关注 TMT、后期关注金融；基 本面驱动行情下，前期关注消费、中期关注制造、后期关注地产。本轮牛市目前或以 流动性驱动为主，可能正处于中期，TMT 或成为牛市中期主线，当前可重点关注， 若行情逐渐过渡至后期，可关注金融板块。未来牛市若转向基本面驱动，先进制造值 得重点关注，若行情演绎至后期，可关注地产板块。 行业研究 【电子】25Q2 电子行业 AI、PCB、英伟达供应链等领域净利润同比增速较快——电 子行业 2025 年二季报总结(买入) 2025 年 Q2 全行业（A 股）652 家公司归母净利润为 1,368.2 亿元，同比+35%，环 比+34%。其中，25Q2 归母净利润同比增速排名前 3 的子行业为 AI 供应链（25Q2 归母净利润为 174.7 亿元，同比+87%，下同）、PCB（70.0 亿元，+68%）、英伟 达供应链（128.6 亿元，+67%）。 【基化】AI 拉动半导体材料需求增长，25H1 行业上市公司业绩向 ...

Market Performance - The market experienced significant gains with the Dow increasing by 617 points, the S&P 500 jumping 85%, and the Nasdaq climbing 72%, all closing at record highs [1] Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing skepticism among investors, particularly those who have historically been bearish, making it difficult for them to adopt a bullish stance despite positive market movements [2][3] - The challenge in shifting from a negative to a positive outlook is compounded by the historical context of market crashes and the fear of being ridiculed for optimistic predictions [4] Economic Context - The current economic backdrop includes a substantial federal debt of $37 trillion and geopolitical tensions, which contribute to a cautious investor sentiment [5] - Ongoing conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and Gaza, along with strained international relations, add to the complexity of the market environment [6] Interest Rates and Inflation - Despite a slightly higher than expected consumer price index, Treasury yields decreased, which has puzzled skeptics who believe that such inflation readings should lead to higher yields [7]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者帅可聪 北京报道 2025年9月11日，A股三大指数集体大涨，上证指数涨逾1%至3875点，创业板指飙升逾5%站上3000点， 创三年多来新高。A股沪、深、京三市全天总成交额达2.46万亿元，全市场逾4200只个股收涨。 多家机构仍对后市保持积极乐观。方正证券分析认为，多重积极利好因素决定了中国资本市场长期向好 的趋势不会改变，包括经济中长期向好态势不变、A股估值较低权益资产性价比突出、上市公司质量稳 步提升夯实微观基础、分红回购不断增加提高投资者回报、耐心资本持续流入助力市场健康发展等。 巨丰投顾投资顾问总监郭一鸣向《华夏时报》记者表示，A股当前仍处于牛市途中的震荡阶段，市场机 会与风险并存。对于投资者而言，核心策略在于"等待明确信号、把握结构机会、严控短期潜在风险"， 不可盲目追涨短期涨幅过大标的，要耐心等待板块轮动中的低吸机会。 三大指数收于全天最高点 "今天市场真是涨的人心里发慌。"9月11日，随着A股市场再度大幅走强，一位资深投资人士如此表 示。 当天，A股三大指数开盘涨跌不一，盘初一度小幅下探，随后集体震荡上扬，三大指数最终悉数收于全 天最高点位。 截 ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts all experienced declines last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest drop of -1.74%, while the CSI 300 index futures had the smallest decline at -1.02% [3][12] - The average trading volume for the current, next, and seasonal contracts of IF, IC, and IM increased compared to the previous week, with IC seeing the largest increase of 3.52% and IM the smallest at 0.87%. Conversely, IH's average trading volume decreased by -0.34% [3][12] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -2.16%, -9.28%, -10.37%, and -0.23%, respectively, indicating a deepening of the IF discount and a narrowing of the IC and IM discounts [3][12] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - The cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at 39.80%, 56.30%, 36.10%, and 47.10% percentiles since 2019, indicating that these rates are within historical distribution norms [4][13] - For arbitrage opportunities, with a 5% annualized return and 15 trading days remaining, the basis rates for the current IF contracts need to reach 0.54% and -0.91% for long and short arbitrage, respectively. Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract [4][13] Group 3: Market Expectations - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, as indicated by the full decline of the four major index futures contracts last week, with all contracts remaining in a discount state. This reflects a cautious market sentiment [5][14] - The impact of dividend factors on the main contracts is minimal, and it is expected that they will not cause significant disturbances in the market [5][14] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among 12 brokerages indicates that the A-share market remains in a bull or slow bull phase, with an upward trend unchanged. Additionally, 9 brokerages believe that expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and foreign capital inflows will improve liquidity [6][54] - There is a consistent positive outlook on sectors such as the AI industry chain, non-ferrous metals, coal, and chemicals among the sell-side strategy teams [6][54]