Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 target to 6500 points for the next 12 months, up from the previous forecast of 6200 points, indicating an expected increase of approximately 11% from the recent closing price [1] - The optimism in the market is driven by the easing of US-China trade tensions, with traders betting that a recession can be avoided [1] - Despite the positive outlook, Goldman Sachs remains cautious about the economic growth prospects and the potential limitations on stock price-to-earnings ratios in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The temporary US-China trade agreement has renewed optimism on Wall Street, with investors feeling reassured that President Trump will not allow the stock market to suffer excessively [2] - Market experts suggest that the presence of experienced negotiators like Bessent can alleviate concerns about the trade talks deviating from a constructive path [2] - However, there are still significant challenges ahead, including weakening economic growth expectations, declining corporate profits, and inflation concerns that may affect future Federal Reserve actions [2]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant increase of 14% in the month following President Trump's "buy" recommendation on April 9, after a prior drop due to tariff announcements [1][3] - This increase represents the largest gain in the S&P 500 during Trump's presidency, excluding the market rebound during the COVID-19 pandemic [3] - Following Trump's second stock-buying suggestion, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose nearly 4% and the S&P 500 increased by nearly 3% after the announcement of temporary tariff reductions between the US and China [3] Group 2 - Trump's social media posts have become essential reading for global investors, as his presidency has been characterized by frequent tweets and threats regarding tariffs and sanctions against major trading partners [3] - The S&P 500 index had previously dropped 12% over four days due to concerns about a global trade war before Trump announced a 90-day delay on tariffs for most countries [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a shift from bullish to neutral market sentiment, as Goldman Sachs' chief strategist suggests that the market is entering a consolidation phase after a strong rebound [3][6][7] - Following a significant market rebound, the S&P 500 index increased by 15% within a month, but the current prices reflect optimistic trade outlooks that may be offset by upcoming weak economic data [4][7] - Goldman Sachs' strategist warns that the recent sharp rebound in the stock market could be a typical bear market rally, with historical data showing an average duration of 44 days and a 14% increase during such rallies [8] Group 2 - Multiple leading indicators suggest that U.S. inflation is likely to rebound, with the New York Fed's manufacturing price index rising to 51, the highest since August 2022, and similar increases noted in other regional Fed indices [11][12] - Poland is projected to surpass Japan in living standards this year, a prediction made by the International Monetary Fund, which was once considered unrealistic [15] - The U.S. trade deficit expanded to a record level of $140.5 billion in March, driven by a 4.4% increase in imports, reaching a record $419 billion, while exports saw only a slight increase of 0.2% [21][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of global asset classes in April, highlighting the impact of U.S. tariff policies and market sentiment on various financial instruments [2][4]. Summary by Sections Global Asset Performance - In April, global bonds outperformed other asset classes with a return of 2.94%, followed by global stocks at 0.98%, while commodities saw a decline of 8.79% [2]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The ratio of discretionary to staple consumption in the S&P 500 has rebounded, indicating a recovery in market sentiment, influenced by Trump's tariff announcements and subsequent negotiations [4]. - Following the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2, the U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 2022, dropping over 10% from its peak earlier in the year [4][11]. Dollar Liquidity and Credit Concerns - Dollar liquidity concerns in April 2025 were noted, but the situation was significantly better than during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, with specific credit spreads remaining lower [5][14]. Investment Preferences - A survey indicated that 42% of global fund managers expect gold to be the best-performing asset in 2025, followed by cash and government bonds [6][16]. - The Bloomberg Federal Reserve sentiment index has declined, suggesting a potential easing of upward pressure on U.S. Treasury yields [6][20]. Economic Activity Indicators - The copper-to-oil ratio has been rising, which may positively impact the CSI 300 index, reflecting stronger industrial activity in China [7][26]. - Speculative positions in Japanese yen futures reached a 20-year high, indicating strong bullish sentiment towards the yen [8][28]. Currency Fluctuations - The Chinese yuan experienced significant volatility in April, initially depreciating due to tariff fears but later recovering as market expectations for U.S.-China tariff negotiations improved [9][31]. - Concerns over U.S. dollar credit led to a spike in gold prices, which reached a critical level of $3,500 per ounce [10][35]. Economic Activity Index - The weekly economic activity index from Huachuang Securities showed a rebound, indicating a positive correlation with asset prices and economic fundamentals [39]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - The article notes that the copper-gold ratio serves as a leading indicator for U.S. Treasury yields, reflecting market preferences for risk assets [41]. - The sentiment index, which combines various market indicators, has shown a decline, suggesting a shift in market mood [53]. Asset Class Performance Overview - A detailed table outlines the performance of various asset classes, with notable declines in the S&P 500 (-0.76%) and the CSI 300 (-3.00%) for the month [67].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观月报】 4 月全球投资十大主线 事 项 4 月全球大类资产总体表现为：全球债券（2.94%）>全球股票（0.98%）> 0%> 人民币（-0.20%）>美元（-4.55%）>大宗商品（-8.79%）。 主要观点 ❖ 十张图速览全球资产脉络。 1、标普 500 可选消费与必选消费之比回升反映市场情绪有所修复。市场将特 朗普对关税以及对美联储政策的"让步"视作"特朗普看跌期权"，即当市场 遭遇剧烈下跌时，特朗普最终会释放信号稳住情绪。从股市反应来看，4 月 2 日"对等关税"之后，美股市场出现大幅下跌。但随着特朗普释放谈判信息， 市场预期中美达成贸易协议，可选消费相对于必需消费以及股债比均有所回 升，反映出市场情绪有所修复。 2、特朗普"对等关税"后美元指数创 2022 年 3 月以来新低。特朗普政府 4 月 2 日宣布对主要贸易伙伴加征"对等关税"，直接引发美元指数暴跌：4 月 21 日美元指数跌破 98 关口，创 2022 年 3 月以来新低，较年初高点下跌超 10%。 对比特朗普 2018 年宣布对华关税后美元指数上涨，而本轮"对等关税"后美 元指数却下跌，如何理解这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The credit market is expected to receive support from the White House to limit the widening of spreads this year, as indicated by U.S. Bank's credit strategists led by Yuri Seliger [1] Group 1 - The Trump administration has shown sensitivity to the negative impacts of tariff policies on the market and the U.S. economy [1] - The "Trump put" supports the view that investment-grade bond spreads should remain in the range of 90 to 130 basis points by 2025 [1] - As of last Friday, the spread on U.S. high-grade bonds narrowed to 102 basis points, down from a peak of 119 basis points following the announcement of new tariffs on April 2 [1]

4月，美股经历大幅波动后显著反弹，标普500指数收复今年以来跌幅的50%。 究竟谁在积极抄底，成为推动反弹的主力？ 散户4月净买入额高达400亿美元，不仅超越前月，更创下有记录以来的最大单月资金流入。 以共同基金为代表的长期投资者同样抓住了市场回调的机会。 巴克莱策略师Emmanuel Cau指出，共同基金在4月明显加仓，利用了"特朗普看跌期权"效应（即政策导致股市下跌时政府可能出台措施缓解市场 压力的预期）。 所谓的"特朗普看跌期权"似乎确实发挥了一些作用。当前，美国政策不确定性指数已降至2月中旬水平，波动率也随之下降。不过，VIX和 VSTOXX指数仍保持在20以上，在政策变得更加明朗之前，这一水平可能难以持续突破。 答案是散户和共同基金。相反，而对冲基金和CTA（趋势追踪策略基金）基金则继续保持谨慎，风险敞口仍处低位。 散户抄底创纪录，公募基金押注"特朗普看跌期权" 散户是4月美股抄底主力之一。 摩根大通（JPMorgan）市场情报部门的数据显示，散户投资者在此期间大举"抄底"。摩根大通策略师卡迈勒·坦博利 (Kamal Tamboli) 和艾玛·吴 (Emma Wu) 表示： 积极迹象包括：市场宽度（ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a market rebound due to a combination of loose monetary policy and a resolution to tariff issues, creating a favorable environment for stocks, similar to the situation in 2018 [3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Historical Context - Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors suggests that the current market reaction to tariffs may mirror that of 2018, despite significant differences in the economic landscape [3][4]. - In 2018, the S&P 500 index fell 12% within 10 days after Trump's tariff announcements, followed by a 9% drop after actual tariff announcements, and a subsequent 20% decline due to interest rate hike signals from the Fed [5]. - Lee notes that after these declines, the S&P 500 surged over 30% in 2019, indicating potential for recovery after current market volatility [5]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve is currently considering further interest rate cuts rather than hikes, which contrasts with the 2018 scenario [5]. - The S&P 500 has rebounded above its 50-day moving average, suggesting a more favorable technical outlook for the market [5]. - The VIX index is expected to rise around the April 2 tariff deadline but is anticipated to decline afterward, indicating market resilience [5]. Group 3: Economic Sentiment and CEO Confidence - Lee expresses surprise at the rapid deterioration of market sentiment, particularly among CEOs, but believes that if economic disruptions are not prolonged, they may be temporary [6]. - The S&P 500's 10% drop reflects a 40% probability of recession, but Lee argues that the market does not fully align with this pessimism, as other global markets have outperformed the U.S. since February 18 [6]. - The article suggests that a significant rebound in the stock market post-April 2 could restore CEO confidence and mitigate negative impacts on economic growth [6]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Lee counters concerns about foreign investors' hesitance towards U.S. investments, stating that investors seeking quality companies will still favor U.S. markets [6]. - A mutually acceptable trade agreement could alleviate trade tensions and enhance the attractiveness of the U.S. market for investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a "coward's game" amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies and the Federal Reserve's response to economic conditions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market indices hit six-month lows due to Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, with no signs of market support from him [1][4]. - Following a significant drop, Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, which led to further declines in the stock market [4]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that a recession may be necessary for the U.S. economy, contrasting with the previous administration's approach [5][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will be the first to "give in" by lowering interest rates to support the economy, despite rising front-end rates during stock sell-offs [2][7]. - Analysts warn that the Fed's primary focus remains on controlling inflation, and any rate cuts may send misleading signals if economic growth slows but remains positive [2][11]. - The interaction between the Fed and the government is characterized as a "repeated game," where credibility is crucial, and the Fed may hesitate to lower rates if inflation remains above target [11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its economic outlook for the U.S., citing unfavorable trade policy assumptions and the government's management of expectations regarding potential recession [10]. - The current economic situation is described as a "manufactured recession," with concerns about the timing of necessary economic adjustments and the potential for a wealth effect [13]. - The risks of a U.S. recession could have global implications, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, affecting markets worldwide [14].

来源｜财经连环话 信号已经再明确不过了，所谓"特朗普看跌期权"（即总统会为保股市调整政策）或许只是市场的一厢情愿。 以下文章来源于财经连环话 ，作者轱辘慧 财经连环话 . 一张图看懂财经万象，专业财经，轻松看懂。唯一正牌官方号。 发出信号的正是特朗普本人。 周四，当被问及美股暴跌时，他轻飘飘甩出一句："我对股市压根连看都不看"。 美股最惨烈的一周 上周的美股市场，堪称特朗普胜选以来最惨烈的一周。 标普500指数不仅抹去其上任后的全部涨幅，更是首次跌破200日均线，纳斯达克100指数一度跌入技术性修正区间。 曾经风光无限的科技股"七姐妹"三周内市值蒸发超10%，仅英伟达一家便跌去近1万亿美元。更让交易员崩溃的是标普连续7天波动超1%，这种剧烈震荡自 2020年大选争议以来首次出现。 即便是周五的就业数据后，美联储主席鲍威尔紧急救火也未能完全安抚市场，三大股指勉强收红，投资者在反复"仰卧起坐"中直呼心累。 轱辘慧此前《暴跌，现在逃还来得及吗》等文章中提到，市场动荡的背后，是特朗普政府一系列政策的累积效应，加征关税、削减政府开支、DOGE主导 的裁员等一系列操作极大打击了股市情绪与经济韧性。 "特朗普看跌期权"从何 ...