1. Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The US CPI data in July generally support the Fed's rate cut in September, but the slightly higher-than-expected core inflation fails to strengthen the market's rate cut expectations and limits the subsequent rate cut space [2][14]. - The A-share market is strong, and the two loan discount policies announced yesterday may have a positive impact on reducing the debt costs of enterprises and residents and stimulating purchasing power [3][17]. - In the second half of August, factors unfavorable to the bond market are increasing, and the bond market is expected to be slightly weaker in a volatile manner. However, due to the lack of obvious improvement in the fundamentals, it is hard to say that the bond market will turn bearish trend - wise. The upward - trending interest rates in the second half of August will bring allocation opportunities [4][23]. - Steel prices are running strongly, mainly driven by the strong expectation of environmental protection production restrictions. However, since the terminal demand has not changed much, risks should be watched out for [5][43]. - Due to supply - side risks such as production line maintenance and mine shutdowns, the prices of lithium carbonate and other products are expected to be strong in the short term [6][58]. - Oil prices are oscillating weakly, and both EIA and OPEC slightly raise the market demand forecast for next year [7][60]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US July unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the gold price oscillated slightly lower. The CPI data support the Fed's rate cut in September, but the core inflation limits the rate cut space. Short - term gold remains in a volatile pattern [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Two loan discount policies are introduced, and China and the US agree to continue suspending the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs. The A - share market is approaching the previous high of 3674. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [16][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on monetary policy. The US July CPI is slightly lower than expected, but the core CPI exceeds expectations, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September. The US stock market is expected to remain strong, but inflation risks exist [19][20][21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Three departments issue the implementation plan for the fiscal discount policy on personal consumption loans. The bond market is under pressure, and it is recommended that trading desks be cautious when betting on rebounds [22][23][25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - USDA unexpectedly lowers the US soybean ending inventory. The report is beneficial to soybean meal, and it is expected that the soybean meal futures price will remain strong before China resumes purchasing US soybeans [26][27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The expected ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/2026 is lower than expected, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is initiated. It is recommended to take long positions in the domestic oil market or adopt the strategy of going long on rapeseed oil and short on soybean oil in the 01 contract [28][30][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The cotton textile industry PMI in July drops significantly, and the new order index reaches a low level. The growth progress of US cotton is slow, and the ICE cotton price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is weak. The terminal demand is weak, and the rice - flour price difference has no driving force to strengthen [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - The cost of hog farming is under control. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads [37][38]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The import corn auction turnover rate is low, and the corn price is weak. It is recommended to avoid the 09 contract and hold short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts [39][40]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The sales of key real - estate enterprises decline, and the steel price is strong due to the expectation of environmental protection production restrictions. However, risks should be watched out for as the terminal demand is stable [41][43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Shanxi Province adjusts the mining rights policy. The current supply - demand of alumina is in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Some refineries have maintenance plans in August. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low levels and pay attention to the opportunity of internal - external positive spreads [48][49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - LME zinc inventory decreases slightly, while domestic social inventory increases significantly. It is recommended to manage positions for unilateral positions, pay attention to medium - term positive spreads, and wait and see for internal - external spreads [50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The future demand for nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to increase. In the short term, it is recommended to pay attention to band - trading opportunities, and in the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [52][53][54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - There are supply - side risks such as mine shutdowns. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and positive spreads between months [58]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC's oil production increases in July, and oil prices are weakly volatile. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term [59][60][61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating narrowly, and it is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [62][63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is gradually weakening, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [65]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price trends of different pulp varieties are differentiated. The pulp futures price may rise, but the upward space is limited [66]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price rises, but the fundamentals are weak. The market is expected to oscillate [67]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price is weak, and the market structure changes. It is expected to adjust in a volatile manner in the short term [68][69]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle chips is stable, and the industry is in a state of production reduction. The absolute price follows the fluctuation of polyester raw materials [70][72]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market is volatile. The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price may be under pressure, but the downward space is limited [73][74]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA futures is strongly oscillating, and the demand side is weak. It is expected to adjust in a volatile manner in the short term [75][77]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of pure benzene is expected to be strong, and the production of styrene is high. It is recommended to treat it in a volatile manner and pay attention to cost - side changes [78][79]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Due to the investigation of an official in Qinghai, the market is worried about supply - side disturbances. It is recommended to manage positions [80][81][82]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price decline narrows, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to operate with caution on the single - side and focus on arbitrage operations [83].

Summary of Cement Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cement industry in China has transitioned from a 10% share of new dry-process production lines in 2000 to nearly 100% by 2015, indicating significant technological upgrades and the elimination of outdated capacity [1][3] - The overall profitability of the cement industry has been good from 2015 to 2024, with profits exceeding 20 billion yuan in 2024 and some companies experiencing growth of 20%-30% in the first half of 2025 [1][4] Key Points - **Profitability and Debt Pressure**: The industry has maintained a stable profitability despite recent downward pressures, with a low debt ratio and ample cash flow contributing to a favorable financial position [4] - **Environmental Policies**: The impact of environmental production restrictions varies by region, with the East China market showing greater price elasticity during peak demand seasons compared to the North [5] - **Capacity Reduction Measures**: The industry primarily relies on environmental production limits rather than direct elimination of small outdated capacities, with annual capacity reductions generally around 30 million tons [6] - **Energy Consumption Policies**: The dual control policy on energy consumption has led to significant price fluctuations, with net profits for companies like Conch Cement reaching over 150 yuan per ton during peak periods [7] - **Current Market Characteristics**: The current market reversal point is characterized by good profitability, a high proportion of state-owned enterprises (55%), and a clear oversupply situation, making large-scale capacity reductions unlikely [8] Additional Insights - **Future Carbon Constraints**: Future carbon constraint policies are expected to become significant for the industry, likely manifesting after 2027 [9] - **Comparative Analysis of Cycles**: The current cycle shows similarities to previous cycles in terms of profitability distribution among companies, but differs in demand trends and price elasticity, with current demand being in decline [10][11] - **Supply-Side Reform Lessons**: Historical attempts at capacity reduction have not been fully realized, leading to ongoing oversupply issues, and the reliance on voluntary cooperation among enterprises to maintain industry discipline [12]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals is mostly in the red, with rebar futures showing a downward trend and a current price fluctuation between 3197.00 and 3235.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.36% [1] - New Century Futures analysis indicates that the overall performance of the Politburo meeting was below expectations, leading to a potential decrease in market trading enthusiasm and a risk of short-term corrections. The construction material demand is expected to decline seasonally, with total steel inventory rising from a low level [1] - The steel industry is anticipated to maintain growth expectations in the short term, supported by macroeconomic and policy factors, particularly during the upcoming military parade on September 3, which will see environmental production restrictions in northern regions [1] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures reports that rebar production remains stable while demand is decreasing, leading to an increase in inventory levels. The market sentiment is cooling, and while there may be short-term rebounds, optimism regarding price ceilings should be tempered [2] - Guoxin Futures notes that despite the off-season, steel mills are still profitable and operational momentum is strong. Data from Steel Union shows a slight decrease in the production of five major steel products, with rebar production experiencing a minor weekly increase [2] - The raw material prices are experiencing high volatility, contributing to the fluctuating nature of rebar futures, and short-term trading strategies are recommended [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The demand in the off - season shows resilience and does not decline significantly as expected. The supply - demand in June is basically balanced with a flat inventory trend. Currently, the supply contraction expectation affects the market, and the improved market sentiment leads to price rebounds. In early and mid - July, Tangshan implements production restrictions, providing short - term support for the spot market. The reference fluctuation range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for the rebar, it is 3050 - 3150 [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. This week, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also declined. On the demand side, due to increased steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions, the molten iron output decreased. The molten iron is expected to continue to decline in July, with an average of 230 - 240 tons. In the short term, iron ore will oscillate strongly, while in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on iron ore 2509 at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 calendar spread trade with a reference range of 700 - 750 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - As of yesterday's close, both coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot markets were stable with a slight upward bias. For coke, the fourth round of price cuts landed on June 23, and a phased bottom is emerging. On the supply side, after the end of environmental inspections in June, some coal mines are expected to resume production. On the demand side, there are rumors of environmental production restrictions in Tangshan, and the molten iron output is expected to decline. For coking coal, the domestic coking coal auction market is warming up, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from coking plants has slightly declined, but the downstream replenishment efforts have increased. It is recommended to hedge coke 2601 and coking coal 2601 at high prices, go long on coke 2509 and coking coal 2509 at low prices after corrections, and conduct 9 - 1 calendar spread trades [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3150, 3160, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3098, 3063, and 3087 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3230, 3140, and 3210 yuan/ton respectively. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3206, 3190, and 3200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, and the billet price is 2910 yuan/ton. The profits of East China hot - rolled coils, Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar, Jiangsu converter rebar, etc., show different degrees of decline [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output is 240.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.6%). The output of five major steel products is 885.2 tons, an increase of 4.2 tons (0.5%). Rebar output is 217.8 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons (1.5%), and hot - rolled coil output is 328.1 tons, an increase of 0.9 tons (0.3%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1339.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons (0.0%). Rebar inventory is 545.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons (- 0.7%), and hot - rolled coil inventory is 341.2 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons (- 1.1%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume is 240.8 tons, a decrease of 1.5 tons (- 0.6%). The apparent demand for five major steel products is 885.2 tons, an increase of 5.4 tons (0.6%), the apparent demand for rebar is 219.9 tons, an increase of 5.0 tons (2.3%), and for hot - rolled coils, it is 326.3 tons, a decrease of 1.9 tons (- 0.6%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show an increase of 0.3%. The 09 - contract basis of some powders shows a significant decline. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 2.3%), the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 (1.9%), and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%) [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2483.9 tons, an increase of 120.9 tons (5.1%). The global shipment volume (weekly) is 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 362.7 tons (- 10.8%). The national monthly import volume is 9813.1 tons, a decrease of 500.3 tons (- 4.9%) [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 240.9 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (- 0.6%). The 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume (weekly) is 319.3 tons, a decrease of 6.6 tons (- 2.0%). The national monthly pig iron output is 7411.4 tons, an increase of 153.1 tons (2.1%), and the national monthly crude steel output is 8654.5 tons, an increase of 52.6 tons (0.6%) [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory (weekly) is 13822.73 tons, a decrease of 55.7 tons (- 0.4%). The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8918.6 tons, an increase of 71.1 tons (0.8%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices showed an oscillating upward trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward bias. The fourth round of coke price cuts landed on June 23. Coking coal futures also rose, and the spot market showed a bottom - building and rebound trend [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons (- 0.24%). The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.5 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines is 865.3 tons, an increase of 12.4 tons (1.5%), and the clean coal output is 442.3 tons, an increase of 7.4 tons (1.7%) [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 240.9 tons, a decrease of 1.4 tons (- 0.6%). The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 64.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.5 tons, an increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%) [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory is 930.7 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons (- 1.1%). The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 789.6 tons, an increase of 8.4 tons (1.1%) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation phase. The spot market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and environmental protection restrictions have increased, which has a certain boost to market sentiment [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show a narrow - range oscillation trend. There are both positive and negative factors in supply, demand, and inventory [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to operate in an oscillatory manner. The supply and demand sides are affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, steel prices, and cost pressures [1]. - The manganese - silicon market is likely to experience weak oscillations. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, although the cost side has some support [1][3]. - The silicon - iron market is expected to operate weakly and oscillate. The supply and demand are both at a low level, and the price drivers are limited [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 48,100 lots in positions. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and the trading volume remained low. Environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan may affect production, and the short - term disk is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 708.5 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (0.98%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 340,000 lots and a decrease of 14,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices showed mixed trends. Supply decreased slightly, demand (blast furnace operating rate) remained flat while iron - water production increased, and inventory showed different trends. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (1.27%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,806 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas changed. Supply is expected to be more relaxed as environmental inspections end, and demand may be affected by environmental protection in some areas. The short - term disk is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1388.5 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (1.1%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,264 lots in positions. Spot prices in ports increased. Supply was affected by environmental protection and cost pressures, and demand was supported by blast - furnace operations but also faced negative feedback from the weak terminal market. The short - term disk is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon futures price weakened oscillatively. The main contract was reported at 5624 yuan/ton, down 0.95% month - on - month, with a decrease of 7,716 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production has been increasing for six consecutive weeks, demand is still at a low level, and the cost side has some support. The short - term is expected to operate weakly and oscillate [1][3]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The silicon - iron futures price weakened oscillatively. The main contract was reported at 5270 yuan/ton, down 2.04% month - on - month, with an increase of 5,156 lots in positions. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Production remained stable at a low level, demand was at a historical low, and the price drivers were limited during the off - season. The short - term is expected to operate weakly and oscillate [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different trends, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also showed different changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract and 01 - contract of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different regions and varieties changed, including rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou; hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou; and various iron - ore powders [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Different profit indicators (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spread indicators (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, etc.) showed different changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Included price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese - silicon, and silicon - iron from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Showed the basis trends of main contracts of various varieties over different time periods [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presented the spread trends of inter - period contracts of different varieties, such as the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [27][29][31][34][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Included spread trends of inter - variety contracts, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, etc. [41][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: Showed the profit trends of the rebar main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. The end of coking coal supply disruptions and the verification of future startup data are awaited. Iron ore inventory remains flat, and its valuation depends on finished product demand. Short - term Tangshan production restrictions may interfere with the market. Observe the pressure around 3150 for hot - rolled coils and 3050 for rebar [1]. - Iron Ore: The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated weakly yesterday. This week, global iron ore shipments decreased, and the arrival volume at ports dropped significantly. The demand side has high - level pig iron production, but there is a risk of weakening terminal demand in the off - season. In the future, pig iron production in July is expected to decline, and iron ore may turn to a moderately weak operation in the short term. A short - selling strategy is recommended for the 09 contract [5]. - Coke: As of yesterday's close, coke futures oscillated downward, and the spot market remained stable. After the fourth round of price cuts, the market is showing signs of a bottom. Supply may increase, demand will decline slightly, and inventory is at a medium level. A hedging strategy is recommended for the 2601 contract, and speculative investors are advised to wait and see [6]. - Coking Coal: As of yesterday's close, coking coal futures oscillated downward, and the spot market was moderately strong. The domestic coking coal market is showing signs of stabilization, and the supply may increase. The demand has some resilience, and inventory is at a medium level. A hedging strategy is recommended for the 2601 contract, and speculative investors are advised to wait and see [6]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices were mostly stable, with some minor fluctuations. Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil had small increases. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and slabs remained unchanged. The cost of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu had different trends, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions had varying degrees of increase [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products increased. The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly, the rebar inventory decreased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average building materials trading volume decreased, and the apparent demand for five major steel products and hot - rolled coils decreased, while the apparent demand for rebar increased slightly [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price indices all decreased. The spreads between different contracts also changed [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped significantly. The demand side had high - level pig iron production, and the daily average port ore removal volume increased [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased, and the number of available days of inventory for 64 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices oscillated downward, and the spot market remained stable. Coking coal futures prices also oscillated downward, and the spot market was moderately strong. The basis and spreads of coke and coking coal changed, and the profits of coking plants and coal mines decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The production of coke and coking coal had different trends. After the end of environmental inspections in June, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke and coking coal is expected to decline slightly in July, with pig iron production remaining at 230 - 240 tons per day [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke and coking coal showed different trends. Coke inventory decreased, and coking coal inventory was at a medium level with different parts showing different changes [6].

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating of Hebei Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (Hegang) remains at AAA with a stable outlook, supported by strong shareholder backing, significant scale advantages, and robust product competitiveness, despite facing challenges from fluctuating steel prices and high financial leverage [4][11]. Company Overview - Hegang is one of China's largest steel producers, benefiting from its scale, product structure, and market position, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [6][15]. - The company has a strong financial flexibility due to good bank-enterprise relationships and a robust equity financing capability as a publicly listed entity [6]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Hegang's total assets are projected to reach approximately 2691.04 billion yuan, with total liabilities at around 2015.21 billion yuan, indicating a high debt burden [8]. - The company's operating revenue is expected to decline to 1216.17 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 8.01 billion yuan, reflecting the impact of weak downstream demand [8][26]. - The EBITDA margin is projected to decrease to 9.16% in 2025, indicating pressure on profitability due to falling steel prices [9][29]. Industry Context - The steel industry is experiencing significant cost and price volatility, with expectations of continued pressure on profit margins due to weak demand and high financial leverage [12][14]. - The ongoing transition and capacity replacement projects are expected to alleviate some environmental pressures, but capital expenditure remains a concern [24][25]. Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected declines in steel prices, increases in raw material costs, and challenges related to environmental regulations and capacity relocation [5][12]. - The company faces ongoing financial pressures from high debt levels and the need for continued investment in capacity upgrades and environmental compliance [26][27]. Future Outlook - Hegang aims to enhance its competitive position by increasing the proportion of high-value products and improving operational efficiency, despite anticipated challenges in the steel market [16][20]. - The company is expected to maintain its production capacity advantage, with a focus on expanding its market presence and product offerings [16][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a significant increase in coking coal prices due to the impact of rising crude oil prices, driving a slightly stronger trend in ferrous metals including steel. However, it does not change the pattern of loose supply and demand of Chinese steel. In the short term, it will boost market sentiment, but the downward trend remains. It is recommended to take a short - position approach on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly this week, with the reduction mainly in Australia, but Australian shipments remained at a high level overall, and Brazilian shipments increased steadily. The arrival volume decreased slightly, mainly due to the reduction of Brazilian ore arrivals. In the future, the average arrival volume will still remain at a relatively high level. The terminal demand for finished products is at risk of weakening in the off - season, but there is still some resilience in the short term. The 09 contract of iron ore should be considered from a bearish perspective in the medium - to - long term [4]. - **Coke**: The coke futures oscillated and rose, while the spot was weakly stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection inspections, and the demand has seen a peak - to - decline trend. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coke at a high level around 1380 - 1430 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures oscillated and rose, while the spot was weakly stable. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly due to environmental protection inspections but remained at a relatively high level, and the import situation was complex. The demand from downstream industries showed a peak - to - decline trend but still had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coking coal at a high level around 800 - 850 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron has begun to rise recently. The cost side is expected to decline overall. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate mainly in a narrow range, and the coal price change should be focused on [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply pressure of silicon manganese still exists. The manganese ore supply is expected to decline marginally in the short term, and the support for silicon manganese is limited. The cost adjustment is difficult to stabilize. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate mainly in a narrow range, and the manganese ore price change should be focused on [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products showed small fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3090 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in East China increased by 20 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit also showed a downward trend. For example, the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 2974 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China rebar decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 43 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of five major steel products decreased by 21.5 tons to 858.9 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 9.2 tons to 1354.6 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The trading volume of building materials increased by 0.8 tons to 11.0 tons, an increase of 8.3%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 14.1 tons to 868.1 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices increased slightly, and the basis of some varieties decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder increased by 1.1 yuan/ton to 761.2 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 49.9 yuan/ton to 56.7 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global shipment volume increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, an increase of 2.3%. The 247 - steel - mill average daily hot - metal output decreased by 0.2 tons to 241.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 86.2 tons to 13933.14 tons, an increase of 0.6% [4]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures prices of coke increased, while the spot prices were weakly stable. The third - round price cut of coke was implemented on June 6, with a decrease of 70/75 yuan/ton, and there were still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply decreased due to environmental protection inspections, and the demand showed a peak - to - decline trend. The iron - water output decreased slightly last week [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke decreased in various links, and the downstream procurement was generally cautious [5]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures prices of coking coal increased, while the spot prices were weakly stable. The domestic coking coal price decline slowed down, and the import situation was complex [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly due to environmental protection inspections but remained at a relatively high level. The demand from downstream industries showed a peak - to - decline trend but still had some resilience [5]. - **Inventory**: The coal - mine inventory continued to accumulate at a high level, and the port inventory also increased [5]. Silicon Iron - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of silicon iron were generally stable, and the export price remained unchanged. The SF - SM main - contract spread decreased by 8.0 to - 292.0 [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon iron showed a downward trend, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5.9% [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of silicon iron decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron was weak in both the steel - making and non - steel - making sectors, but the export still had some resilience [6]. Silicon Manganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The spot prices of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the cost adjustment was difficult to stabilize [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of silicon manganese was difficult to stabilize, and the production profit situation was not optimistic [6]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production of silicon manganese increased slightly, and the inventory increased [6]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon manganese was affected by the weakening of iron - water output and the off - season of finished - product demand [6].

（一）主要产品的价格变动情况 证券代码：600328 证券简称：中盐化工 公告编号：（临）2025-034 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 中盐内蒙古化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证 券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第七号-医药》《上市公司行 业信息披露指引第十八号-化工》及《关于做好上市公司 2025 年第一 季度报告披露工作的通知》要求，现将公司 2025 年第一季度主要经 营数据披露如下： | 主要行业 | 主要产品 | 2025 年第 | 2025 年第 | 营业收入（万 元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 一季度产量 | 一季度销量 | | | 精细化工行业 | 金属钠、氯酸钠 （万吨） | 3.40 | 3.29 | 21,343.68 | | 基础化工行业 | 纯碱（万吨） | 104.39 | 95.02 | 121,025.87 | | | 聚氯乙烯树脂 ...