当地时间12月2日，特朗普突然宣布，将在2026年初更换美联储主席，并点名凯文·哈塞特是热门人选。 这位曾被称为"特朗普经济傀儡"的人物，一度被金融界视为华尔街的定时炸弹。 凯文·哈塞特 与此同时，中国却一批批的把黄金储备从海外运回，堆满了国内的金库。 美债市场也开始出现不寻常的波动，中国从2022年开始持续减持美债，三年时间已经抛售近3000亿美元。 这三件事同时发生，绝非巧合。 那么，哈塞特真的会成为美联储的新主人吗？中国加速回收黄金，是准备迎接什么风暴？ 这种措辞在美国政坛都极为罕见，更别说出自总统之口，市场立刻做出反应，美元指数跳水，黄金、白银价格飙升。 而哈塞特的名字在华尔街迅速传开，这个在特朗普第一任期内，曾担任总统经济顾问的人物，长期被认为是"经济民粹主义"的代表，他明确表示，如果自己 做主席，会立即降息。" 特朗普与哈塞特交流 这一表态彻底击穿了市场对美联储独立性的最后幻想，要知道，美联储的独立性一直是全球投资者信任美元的重要基础。 特朗普要"动刀"美联储 12月2日，特朗普对外宣布，将在2026年初公布新任美联储主席人选，现场一片哗然，因为他并没有掩饰自己的意图，那就是要换掉现任主席鲍威尔。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global central banks are aggressively purchasing gold, with a net buying rate of 1.5 tons per hour, leading to a significant increase in gold prices and a strategic shift in investment behavior towards gold as a safe asset [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Activities - Central banks have purchased 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters of 2025, marking five consecutive years of net buying, which is more than double the scale during the 2015 bull market [1][4]. - The People's Bank of China has been the largest buyer, increasing its gold reserves for 18 consecutive months, surpassing 2,568 tons [1]. - The global central bank gold purchases have transitioned from isolated actions to a coordinated global movement, with significant contributions from countries like Poland and Kazakhstan [4][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - As of November 26, 2025, domestic gold jewelry prices have surged to 1,312 CNY per gram, reflecting a 20% increase since the beginning of the year [3]. - The demand for gold has surged, with a notable increase in inquiries about gold bars and ETFs, particularly among younger investors [3][12]. - The global annual gold production is approximately 3,500 tons, with central bank purchases now accounting for 20% of this production, up from 10% in 2015 [6]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates has historically correlated with rising gold prices, and the current economic climate suggests a potential cumulative rate cut of 100 basis points by 2026 [8][9]. - The decline in the attractiveness of dollar assets, driven by U.S. government policies and economic uncertainties, has prompted central banks to increase their gold holdings as a strategic response [6][12]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The perception of gold has shifted from a speculative asset to a strategic component of investment portfolios, with a notable decrease in correlation with U.S. equities and bonds [14]. - Major institutional investors, including the largest gold ETF (SPDR), have increased their holdings significantly, indicating a broader acceptance of gold as a hedge against market volatility [14]. - Retail investors are advised to consider non-leveraged gold ETFs or physical gold bars for long-term investment, while cautioning against high-premium gold jewelry [14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed trend with the non-ferrous sector experiencing a significant rise, particularly the non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which has gained over 3% as of 10:10 AM on November 13 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a strong inflow of over 3 million yuan yesterday, indicating robust investor interest [1]. - Major component stocks of the non-ferrous 50 ETF, such as Yahua Group and Xingye Silver Tin, rose over 9%, while others like Guocheng Mining and Yongxing Materials increased by over 8% [3]. Group 2: Component Stocks - The top ten component stocks of the non-ferrous 50 ETF include Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and Luoyang Molybdenum, with Zijin Mining having an estimated weight of 15.52% and a price increase of 4.44% [4]. Group 3: Global Metal Prices - As of 10:14 AM, most base metals in London saw an increase, with LME copper rising by 0.65% to $10,897.00 per ton, and COMEX gold futures up by 2.07% to $4,201.4 per ounce [5]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The investment logic for the non-ferrous sector is based on three key factors: the upward financial attributes due to the dollar credit cycle, demand growth driven by the fourth industrial revolution, and rigid supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure and geopolitical tensions [6][7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The non-ferrous sector is expected to maintain a bullish trend through 2026, driven by new quality production elements and the strategic value of metals, particularly in emerging fields like AI and new materials [7][8]. - The supply constraints in copper are anticipated to persist, with potential upward price movements supported by increasing demand from new technologies [8][9]. Group 6: ETF Advantages - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) boasts a leading "gold-copper content" of 46%, with a focus on strategic metals that have significant supply-demand gaps [10]. - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return leading its peers since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation expansion, indicating a strong investment experience [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 56.32%, the lowest in 30 years, indicating an acceleration of the "de-dollarization" trend [2] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, growing at a rate of over $60 billion per day, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion, which has eroded global trust in the dollar [3] - The international monetary landscape is shifting from dollar dominance to a multipolar system, with the dollar's share in international payments at 47.79%, followed by the euro at 22.77% and the renminbi at 3.17%, which has seen a 15.53% increase [3] Group 2 - The price of gold has not risen in line with demand due to the issuance of paper gold by Western financial institutions, which suppresses physical gold prices [4] - The suppression of gold prices is driven by the need to maintain the dominance of fiat currencies and prevent a collapse of the Western financial system [4] - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold to enhance their risk resilience amid global conflicts, indicating a shift in reliance on gold as a safe asset [4] Group 3 - Gold prices are expected to be influenced by Federal Reserve policies, with potential adjustments around $4,000, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [5] - The market may experience fluctuations between $3,850 and $4,150, with a potential short-term drop to $3,850 before a long-term breakout opportunity [5] - The current market conditions suggest a decrease in implied volatility, indicating a stable trading range for gold in the near term [5]

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has reached its 36th day, breaking the previous record for the longest shutdown [1] - The shutdown is a result of the failure to pass a temporary funding bill, which requires congressional approval for federal spending [1] - Historical patterns show that government shutdowns often stem from disputes over healthcare, social welfare spending, and immigration issues [2] Group 1: Government Shutdown Context - The current shutdown is primarily driven by disagreements over healthcare and welfare spending, with significant implications for millions of Americans [2] - The 1974 Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act mandates that federal spending must be authorized by Congress, leading to shutdowns when funding is not approved [1][2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. federal debt has reached nearly $40 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 126.79%, significantly exceeding the IMF's warning threshold of 90% [3] - The ongoing political stalemate over spending is exacerbating the fiscal deficit, potentially leading to a cycle of debt crises, government shutdowns, and economic stagnation [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - The prolonged government shutdown has contributed to rising gold prices, as investors seek alternatives amid declining confidence in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - The shutdown has prompted a negative response in U.S. stock indices, indicating market concerns over the economic impact of the political deadlock [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surged to an unprecedented $38 trillion, raising concerns about economic stability and fiscal responsibility, prompting the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and halt balance sheet reduction efforts [1][5][14]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in two months reflects a shift in economic risk balance, prioritizing survival over previous commitments [1][6]. - The U.S. national debt now exceeds 126.8% of GDP, surpassing the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) safety threshold of 100% [5][6]. - The annual interest payment on the debt has exceeded $1 trillion, contributing to a cycle of increasing debt as interest payments themselves become new debt [6][14]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The issuance of 10-year Treasury bonds has seen a significant drop in demand, indicating a lack of confidence from foreign investors in U.S. long-term debt [7][8]. - The U.S. dollar index has declined from 109 to 98, reflecting global investor sentiment regarding U.S. fiscal policies [8][12]. Group 3: International Implications - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds while increasing its gold reserves, indicating a strategy of risk hedging amidst U.S. fiscal instability [9][11]. - Other countries, including Japan and the UK, are also reassessing their investments in U.S. debt, highlighting a broader trend of diminishing trust in U.S. fiscal management [12][16]. Group 4: Structural Issues - The interplay between fiscal and monetary policy has created a vicious cycle of debt accumulation, where tax cuts lead to deficits, which in turn necessitate more borrowing and monetary easing [14][16]. - The current situation is likened to a "sandcastle" built on unstable foundations, suggesting that reliance on debt and money printing is unsustainable [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The current global financial market is experiencing a unique phenomenon where almost all major assets are rising simultaneously despite economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, indicating a global asset revaluation driven by a "credit crisis" related to the dollar's credibility rather than its status as a reserve currency [1][14]. Group 1: Asset Price Movements - From 2025 onwards, major stock market indices have risen, while bond yields in major economies have decreased, leading to an increase in bond values [2]. - The rise in asset prices is not due to accelerated global economic growth, as the IMF predicts a decline in global growth rates for 2025 compared to 2024 [2]. - The increase in asset prices is not a result of further global liquidity easing, as global M2 reached $113 trillion by July 2023, with marginal growth rates remaining stable [2][7]. - The rise in asset prices is not driven by a specific technology cycle, such as artificial intelligence, as traditional sectors like finance and real estate are also experiencing gains [12][13]. Group 2: Dollar Credibility Issues - The dollar is facing a credibility crisis stemming from political, financial, and fiscal dimensions, leading to a structural change in market trust regarding its long-term purchasing power and political neutrality [14][15]. - The political shift in the U.S. towards protectionism and unilateralism has raised doubts about America's commitment to maintaining global stability [16]. - The frequent use of the dollar payment system as a diplomatic tool has prompted countries to reassess their reliance on the dollar [16]. - The continuous growth of U.S. government debt has raised concerns about the long-term purchasing power of the dollar [16]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Dollar Credibility - The recovery of dollar credibility is not solely under U.S. control but depends on the evolution of the global political and economic landscape [17]. - Key factors for potential recovery include a return to policy certainty post-2026 U.S. midterm elections, sustained economic improvement, and robust monetary policy operations by the Federal Reserve [17][18]. - Improvements in the international environment and addressing deep structural issues, such as manufacturing return and debt control, are essential for the long-term restoration of dollar credibility [19][20].

Group 1 - Recent short-term setbacks in the gold market were observed, with spot gold prices dropping from approximately $4342 to a low of $4086, marking a daily decline of over 6%, before closing at $4128.27 per ounce [1] - Despite the recent drop, market buying remains strong, indicating that the decline was likely a result of profit-taking rather than a shift in the overall upward trend of gold [1] Group 2 - Global gold demand saw a year-on-year increase of 3% in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant value increase of 45%, amounting to approximately $132 billion [3] - The popularity of gold ETFs is rising, with a record net inflow of funds in September, totaling $26 billion for the third quarter, bringing total assets under management to $472 billion by the end of September [3] - The total market capitalization of gold has surpassed $30 trillion, leading the global asset market [4] Group 3 - The current gold bull market is driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and rising risk aversion, with a fundamental shift towards diversification of global reserve assets away from the dollar [5] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement at least one significant rate cut by the end of the year, with some anticipating a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [5] - Since April, a series of tariff policies have challenged the dollar's dominance, leading to a global trend of "de-dollarization" and diversification of settlement currencies [5] Group 4 - Recent data shows that the proportion of gold reserves in global central bank foreign exchange and gold reserves has increased from 24% at the end of June to 30%, while the dollar's share has decreased from 43% to 40%, providing long-term support for gold prices [6] Group 5 - Technically, gold's daily moving averages remain in a bullish divergence, with previous large declines not breaking short-term support levels, suggesting potential upward movement if prices surpass $4200, aiming for a breakout above $4380 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current global financial market is experiencing an unusual "comprehensive bull market," where major assets are rising in tandem despite economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions, driven by a reassessment of asset values due to weakening confidence in the dollar's long-term purchasing power and political neutrality [1]. Group 1: Global Asset Bull Market - Since 2025, major stock market indices have risen, with notable increases in European and Japanese markets, although these improvements alone do not fully explain the global asset price surge [2][9]. - Asset price increases are not driven by accelerated global economic growth, as the IMF predicts a decline in global growth rates for 2025 compared to 2024 [9]. - The rise in asset prices is not a result of further easing of global liquidity, as the marginal increase in global M2 has not significantly exceeded 2024 levels, despite a total M2 of $113 trillion by July 2025 [12][16]. Group 2: Factors Behind Asset Price Increases - The asset price increase is not primarily driven by a technology cycle, such as artificial intelligence, as traditional sectors like finance, consumption, and real estate are also experiencing gains [19][20]. - Geopolitical tensions have not eased; instead, they have intensified, with ongoing trade disputes and tariffs being implemented, contrasting with the rising asset prices [20]. Group 3: Dollar Credit Threats - The weakening dollar reflects structural changes in market confidence regarding its long-term credit and political neutrality, influenced by narrowing interest rate differentials and economic growth expectations [23][27]. - The dollar's decline is not due to actual economic weakness but rather a correction in growth expectations between the U.S. and Europe, with the latter benefiting from aggressive monetary policies [27][28]. - The dollar faces a trust crisis stemming from political, financial, and fiscal dimensions, including the U.S.'s unilateral actions and increasing national debt, which raise concerns about its long-term purchasing power [32][34]. Group 4: Future Outlook for Dollar Credit - The recovery of dollar credit will depend on the return of policy certainty, sustained economic improvement, and the robust operation of monetary policy [41][42][43]. - Changes in the international environment, such as underperformance of other major economies or easing geopolitical tensions, could enhance the dollar's attractiveness [44]. - Long-term improvements in structural issues, including manufacturing return and debt control, are necessary for the restoration of dollar credit [45]. Group 5: Investment Perspective - The current global bull market may represent a redistribution of trust rather than wealth creation, indicating a paradigm shift in investment logic where credit valuation becomes more critical than traditional economic growth metrics [46][47].

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in gold prices is unprecedented, driven by a combination of geopolitical risks, changing interest rates, and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently surpassed $4,200, marking a significant historical high, with both international and domestic markets experiencing a bullish trend [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][12]. - The global interest rate environment is shifting, with expectations of a nearing end to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][12]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Central banks worldwide have been net buyers of gold for several years, setting historical records in gold purchases [4]. - Many countries are repatriating gold stored in foreign vaults, reflecting a growing distrust in the current international monetary system [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Major investment banks are adjusting their gold price targets upward, indicating a consensus among institutions regarding the value of gold [6]. - Notable figures, such as Ray Dalio, emphasize gold as a fundamental alternative to debt, highlighting concerns over the sustainability of the global debt system [6][8]. Group 4: Debt Concerns - The global debt has reached three times the total GDP, raising alarms about the sustainability of this debt level and the trust in traditional currency systems [7]. - The US national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, leading to skepticism about the government's ability to meet its financial obligations [8]. Group 5: Market Risks - Despite the bullish outlook, there are risks in the gold market, including potential volatility and historical precedents of sharp price corrections [11]. - The use of leverage in modern gold trading can amplify both gains and risks, making the market susceptible to sudden reversals [11]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The peak of the current gold rally is uncertain and will depend on the persistence of key driving factors, including geopolitical tensions and interest rate movements [12][13]. - The ongoing "de-dollarization" process and adjustments in foreign exchange reserves by central banks suggest a long-term shift in the monetary landscape, with some institutions projecting gold prices could reach as high as $5,000 [15].