证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 海外周报 20251228 黄金价格再创历史新高，后市怎么看？ 2025 年 12 月 28 日 ◼ 黄金展望：26Q1 市场风险偏好上升或构成短期利空逻辑，但全球央行 购金潮仍将为金价中枢上移提供强有力支撑。本周黄金价格再度创下 4550 美元/盎司的历史新高，而全年累计涨幅也已经达到 72.73%，成为 最具收益的大类资产之一。那么未来黄金走势将如何变化呢？传统框架 下，金价由 ETF 需求主导，而 ETF 需求由美元等货币的加权平均实际 利率预期所驱动。新的投资范式下，金价由央行需求主导，央行需求由 美元信用驱动。由此我们可得出一个金价的简易二元模型，即金价 = f [美元利率，美元信用] = f [g(黄金 ETF 规模)，h(央行购金规模)]。因此 短期来看， 26Q1 美国的宽财政（ ...

新华社北京12月28日电 题：2025年，世界经济"五色"交织 新华社记者闫洁 于荣 2025年，世界经济在动荡中前行。 美国关税战严重冲击多边贸易体系；经济不确定性和对美元信用风险的担忧推动国际金价屡创新 高；人工智能（AI）掀起投资热潮并引发泡沫担忧；中国继续担当全球经济增长最大引擎；全球南方 以更大活力推动重塑世界经济格局……挑战与机遇、破坏与重塑、增长与风险，形成全年世界经济冷暖 交织的图景。 "阴霾灰"：关税逆风加剧世界经济挑战 2025年，美国挑起关税战是贯穿全年的世界经济"热词"。美国特朗普政府的关税政策冲击国际经贸 秩序，侵蚀全球增长动能，成为拖累世界经济的最大"风险源"。这一年，美国宣布对绝大多数贸易对象 征收所谓"对等关税"，实施或威胁加征汽车、钢铝、电影、半导体等产品关税，招致多国反对反制。 从美国自身看，高关税未能增强其产业竞争力、未能解决其自身结构性矛盾，而是通过价格传导机 制推高通胀成本，削弱了企业投资意愿和居民消费能力，损害深度嵌入全球供应链的美国制造业和高科 技产业创新能力。泰国泰中"一带一路"研究中心主任威伦·披差翁帕迪指出，高关税政策本质上是在用 短期政治逻辑透支长期发展潜 ...

the first 1）行情回顾： 12月25日，沪金期货主力合约收跌0.39%至1008.76元/克，沪银期货主力合约收涨2.64%至17397元/千克。 行情殊词_2）影响因素分析：澳外进入圣诞假期，外盘休市，市场消息面嘉淡，黄金价格整体维持高位运行，自银则受到资金情绪助推，价格弹性进一步释放，沪银主力突 戏玩作品 i r800元/千克关口，再创历史新高。展望后市，贵金属价格短期科维持高位偏强运行，但目前白银呈现较为显著的加速上涨态势，场内杠杆风险继续累积，后续 群《个人 散火000元》中范文目，何创办奖机构》次至唐书，灵宝热分相组组的演绎风险。综合，背略：单边短期建现双形基 l3）中长期观点：中长期来看、美联储仍处于宽松周期、大国博弈加剧和逆全球化趋势将令全球地缘不确定性持续、美国巨额债务承美联储独立性削弱将进一步墙 加美元信用风险，全球央行/机构/居民的配置需求有望延续、故金价中长期重心大概率继续上移，建议长线投资者以逢低做多配置为主。 本我告中的信息均源于公天可获得的谈科。国资新货力求准确可靠，但不对上达德息的准辟性及完整性收任何保证、本报告不构成个人投资建议，也未针对个别投资者特殊的设资目标、仅务 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain high. However, the opening of positions by Guangzhou Futures Exchange and speculative investors may cause price fluctuations, especially for silver. It is recommended to wait and see or mainly buy call options in the short - term [5]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit. The allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. So, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Spread Information - **Price Changes on December 18, 2025**: London gold spot rose 0.1% to $4333.58 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.5% to $66.43 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 0.1% to $4363.80 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $66.58 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2602) rose 0.1% to 980.5 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver futures (AG2602) rose 0.1% to 15521 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: Gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 5.8 yuan per gram on December 18, with a - 2.2% change from the previous day. Silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 26 yuan per kilogram, with a - 23.5% change [5]. Position and Inventory Information - **COMEX Gold Positions**: As of December 2, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 261331 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 43771 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 217560 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory decreased 0.01% to 91716 kilograms on December 18, 2025, while SHFE silver inventory increased 0.03% to 912164 kilograms [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Market Index Information - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Changes**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.06 on December 18, 2025, with a 0.01% change. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.29% to 3.49%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.16% [5]. Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On December 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.33% to 980.5 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 3.44% to 15512 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US November inflation rate was 2.7%, lower than market expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8%, the lowest since March 2020. The data increased expectations of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank remained unchanged and sent a hawkish signal, and the US dollar index was under pressure. Geopolitical tensions also supported precious metal prices [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On December 17, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.42 to 979.72 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 6.05% to 15,512 yuan/kilogram. Precious metal prices are expected to remain high and strong in the short - term, but the market will face events such as the US PPI and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision this week. In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the demand for precious metal allocation from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Gold prices are likely to move upward in the long run. The strategy suggests short - term unilateral observation or buying call options, and long - term investors should mainly configure by buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Category Market Quotes - On December 17, 2025, London gold spot was at 4327.72 dollars/ounce, up 1.0% from the previous day; London silver spot was at 66.07 dollars/ounce, up 4.8%. COMEX gold was at 4358.40 dollars/ounce, up 1.1%, and COMEX silver was at 66.31 dollars/ounce, up 5.3%. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures (AU2602) closed at 979.72 yuan/gram, up 0.9%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures (AG2602) closed at 15512 yuan/kilogram, up 5.8% [5]. Price Difference and Ratio - On December 17, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 5.93 yuan/gram, up 17.9% from the previous day; the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 34 yuan/kilogram, up 112.5%. The gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 8.16 yuan/gram, up 23.1%, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 1294 yuan/kilogram, down 3.7%. The SHFE gold - silver main contract ratio was 63.16, down 4.6%, and the COMEX gold - silver main contract ratio was 65.73, down 4.1% [5]. Position Data - As of December 16, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 1051.68 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the silver ETF - SLV position was 16018.29102 tons, down 0.26%. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 253266 contracts, down - 6.04% from the previous week, and non - commercial short positions were 48678 contracts, down - 17.80%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 204588 contracts, down - 2.73% from the previous week, and non - commercial short positions were 52002 contracts, down - 4.64% [5]. Inventory Data - On December 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 91722.00 kilograms, up 0.46% from the previous day; SHFE silver inventory was 911924.00 kilograms, up 2.38%. COMEX gold inventory was 35991345 troy ounces, up 0.07%, and COMEX silver inventory was 453846137 troy ounces, down - 0.16% [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - On December 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.06, down - 0.04% from the previous day. The US dollar index was 98.22, down - 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.48%, down - 0.85%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.15%, down - 0.72%. The VIX was 16.48, down - 0.12%, the S&P 500 was 6800.26, down - 0.24%, and NYMEX crude oil was 55.17 dollars/barrel, down - 2.66% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels, but with significant volatility due to upcoming key events such as US DPI, PCE, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in a loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, and the credit risk of the US dollar is rising. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On December 16, 2025, compared with December 15, the prices of London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, AU2602, AG2602, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) all declined, with decreases of - 1.3%, - 0.4%, - 1.5%, - 0.9%, - 1.2%, - 0.9%, - 1.2%, and - 1.0% respectively [5]. - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by - 8.2%, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by - 633.3% [5]. 3.2 Position Data - From December 12 to December 15, 2025, the positions of gold ETF - SPDR, silver ETF - SLV, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, non - commercial net long positions, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial net long positions all decreased to varying degrees [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - From December 12 to December 16, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE silver inventory increased by 3.84%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.26% [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From December 12 to December 16, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate decreased by - 0.08%, the US dollar index decreased by - 0.12%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by - 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by - 0.24%, the VIX increased by 4.83%, the S&P 500 decreased by - 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by - 1.48% [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.6% to 971.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.3% to 14,666 yuan/kilogram [5]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - US economic data, such as the cooling of the employment market and the decline in retail sales, have increased the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, weakened the US dollar index, and boosted precious metal prices [6]. - In the short term, the precious metal market will be affected by key events, and prices are expected to fluctuate sharply [6]. 3.7 Medium - and Long - Term Views - In the long - term, due to the Fed's loose cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and the increase in US dollar credit risk, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the sharp adjustment in the night session last week, precious metal prices are expected to enter a short - term oscillatory trend. Given that ETF holdings are still in an inflow state, prices are unlikely to decline continuously in the short term. Long - term, the center of gravity of gold prices will likely move up, and long - term investors are advised to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips [5][6] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - On December 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.33% to 970.66 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 8.75% to 14,892 yuan/kilogram [3] 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - After the Fed cut interest rates in December and restarted RME, loose macro - liquidity drove precious metal prices higher. London spot gold approached a record high, and London spot silver hit a new record high. However, due to risk - control measures by exchanges, there was significant profit - taking pressure, leading to a pullback in prices. Statements from Fed and BOJ officials, stock market declines, and potential geopolitical risk mitigation also affected prices. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate, and this week, events like US non - farm payrolls, OPI, PCE, and the BOJ interest - rate decision should be watched. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [5] 3. Medium - to - Long - Term Viewpoints - In the long run, the Fed remains in an easing cycle. Geopolitical uncertainties, dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely drive the long - term upward movement of the gold price center. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6] 4. Data Tracking Price Tracking - On December 12, compared with December 11, the prices of London gold, London silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver all rose, with increases ranging from 1.6% to 2.8%. The price differences between TD and SHFE active contracts of gold and silver, and between domestic and foreign markets also changed to varying degrees, with changes ranging from - 21.1% to 21.8% [3] Position Data - Compared with December 11, on December 12, the positions of non - commercial long and short in COMEX gold and silver changed, with the long - position change in COMEX gold reaching 1.37% and the short - position change in COMEX silver reaching - 6.95%. The holdings of gold and silver ETFs also increased slightly [3] Inventory Data - On December 12, SHFE silver inventory increased by 5.17% compared with December 11, while SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased by 0.41% and 0.54% respectively [3] Interest Rate/Foreign Exchange/Stock Market Data - On December 12, the dollar/yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07%, the dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.21%, the VIX increased by 5.99%, the S&P 500 decreased by 1.07%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.67% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, before the interest rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see for silver in the short - term, while gold can still be bought on dips [3][4]. - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest rate cut cycle. With global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition, the risk of US dollar credit will increase. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up. Long - term investors are advised to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, London gold spot decreased by 0.8% to $4180.79 per ounce, London silver spot decreased by 0.6% to $57.97 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.8% to $4208.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 0.7% to $58.40 per ounce. AU2512 decreased by 0.7% to 948.68 yuan per gram, AG2512 decreased by 0.7% to 13600 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.7% to 946.73 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.5% to 13602 yuan per kilogram [4]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios on December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 1.95 yuan per gram (up 6.6%), the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was 2 yuan per kilogram (down 108.7%), the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 4.57 yuan per gram (up - 21.7%), the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 1154 yuan per kilogram (up - 2.1%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 69.76 (up 0.0%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 72.07 (up - 0.1%), AU2602 - 2512 was 2.86 yuan per gram (up - 21.0%), and AG2602 - 2512 (not given on December 9) had a previous value of 15 yuan per kilogram with a change of - 53.3% [4]. 2. Position Data - As of December 8, 2025, compared with December 5, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11% to 1049.11 tons, the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.23% to 15888.54201 tons. For COMEX gold non - commercial long positions, it increased by 4.91% to 266308 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 20.19% to 61644 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 15.89% to 204664 contracts. For COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, it decreased by 8.12% to 60904 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 20.32% to 18840 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 0.38% to 37119 contracts [4]. 3. Inventory Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 91299 kilograms (0.00% change), and SHFE silver inventory increased by 2.65% to 717788 kilograms. On December 8, 2025, compared with December 5, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.27% to 36213039 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.20% to 456143022 troy ounces [4]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On December 9, 2025, compared with December 8, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.01% to 7.08. The US dollar index increased by 0.12% to 99.10, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.28% to 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.72% to 4.17%, the VIX increased by 8.11% to 16.66, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.35% to 6846.51, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 2.14% to 58.85 [4]. 5. Market Review and Outlook - On December 9, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.92% to 951.54 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.68% to 13607 yuan per kilogram [4]. - With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, although the market has largely priced in a 26bp interest rate cut in December, "Fed Chair" Hammond said that Powell may also think that waiting is prudent, increasing the uncertainty of future interest - rate cut paths. Coupled with the Bank of Japan's continuous strengthening of the possibility of a December interest - rate hike, market sentiment has become cautious [4].

Core Viewpoints - Short-term gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a high range, while the long-term focus is likely to continue moving upward due to various economic factors [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Analysis - Guotai Futures notes that despite a decrease in initial jobless claims in the U.S., the economic outlook remains mixed, with expectations for a Fed rate cut in December providing some support for precious metal prices [1] - Nanhua Futures emphasizes that central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand will continue to push precious metal prices higher in the medium to long term, while short-term focus is on the Fed's rate cut expectations [2] - Wells Fargo highlights that declining interest rates, uncertainty, a weak dollar, and a pullback in cryptocurrencies are solid foundations for the next phase of gold price increases [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Guotai Futures identifies significant technical resistance for gold around $4,200 per ounce, with support levels at $4,000 and $3,900 [1][2] - Nanhua Futures also points out that the London gold market faces resistance at $4,250 per ounce and support at $4,000 per ounce, with silver showing similar patterns [2] - BCA Research suggests that gold is likely to remain within its current range due to the Fed's neutral stance, but anticipates a long-term upward trend by 2026 [4] Group 3: Economic Factors - Guotai Futures mentions that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and unsustainable U.S. debt levels will likely increase dollar credit risk, supporting gold prices in the long run [1] - Wells Fargo indicates that the diversification trend in the market will further elevate gold prices, especially as competitors like AI-driven stocks and cryptocurrencies show relative weakness [3] - BCA Research maintains a neutral outlook for gold in the short term but expects a favorable environment for gold as real interest rates decline [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Thursday's precious metal prices fluctuated. After significant weakening in July and August, the number of new non - farm jobs in September rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose simultaneously. The Fed's data - dependent style further reduces the probability of a December interest rate cut, but long - term interest rate cut expectations remain optimistic due to the negative impact of the government shutdown [1][3] - In the long term, the upward trend of precious metals remains. The over - issuance of debt and de - globalization, as the core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - In September, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, the highest since 2021. The average hourly wage increased by 3.8% year - on - year. These data strengthen the position of hawkish members of the FOMC [2] - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 220,000, lower than the expected 230,000. The four - week average was 224,250. The number of continued jobless claims from November 8 was 1,974,000, slightly higher than the expected 1,960,000 [2] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in November was - 1.7, lower than the expected 2. The employment index was 6, and the price acquisition index was 17.7 [2] 3.2 Price Logic - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from spill - over effects. In 2026, the global economic shift is favorable for silver's elasticity [3] - The expected price range for spot London gold is [3800, 4200] US dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver is [46, 53] US dollars per ounce [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 20, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial products index was 2200.99, down 0.68% [42] - The precious metals index on November 20, 2025 was 3328.49, with a daily decline of 0.57%, a 5 - day decline of 2.27%, a 1 - month increase of 0.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 50.45% [44]