1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is significantly influenced by geopolitical events, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which impacts the prices of various commodities. - Different commodities have distinct supply - demand situations, and investment strategies vary accordingly. Some are recommended for long - position layout, while others suggest short - position exit, temporary observation, or high - selling and low - buying. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices (in London) rose 0.74% to $4505.31/oz, domestic gold prices also increased slightly. International silver prices rose 0.07% to $71.228/oz [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The prospect of US - Iran cease - fire negotiations affects prices. The US import price increase and changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions are also important factors. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider re - laying out long positions in gold; gradually take profits on previous short positions in silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The focus is on the Middle East situation. The supply of copper ore remains tight. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest temporary observation [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased 0.99% to 23,860 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations due to the uncertainty of the Middle East conflict [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased 1.69% to 2,963 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity is relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the core driver possibly concentrated on Guinea's mining policy [3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: Zinc and lead main contracts had price changes on March 25, and there were also changes in inventory [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The non - ferrous sector rebounded from oversold conditions. The lead market has factors affecting supply and demand, and the zinc market has inventory and production factors. - **Trading Strategy**: For lead, observe the inventory reduction situation and consider going long if the social inventory continues to decline; for zinc, the price is expected to be weak, and it's recommended to observe or trade with high - selling and low - buying [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract price increased, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, etc [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply side has an increase in the number of open furnaces, and the demand side has different trends in various industries. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to relevant meetings. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,100 - 8,900 yuan/ton in the short term [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The LC2605 contract price increased 4.04% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in supply, demand, and inventory, and the market is affected by the situation in Zimbabwe's lithium mines. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on inventory data and new registration speed of warehouse receipts. The short - term market is in a long - short game [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract price increased, and there were changes in trading volume, open interest, etc [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply pressure has been marginally alleviated, and the demand side has a complex situation. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the actual downstream procurement and transaction prices, and mainly adopt an observation strategy [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices oscillated strongly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Focus on the Middle East situation, the supply shortage is slightly alleviated, and the demand side has active procurement. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest observation due to the susceptibility to liquidity shocks [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The rebar main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand and production increased, the market transaction recovered, and there are certain supply - demand and valuation situations. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe, and hold short positions in rebar 2605 cautiously [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The iron ore main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in arrival and shipment, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The coking coal main 2605 contract price decreased [5]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in iron - making water production, and the supply - demand and inventory situations are complex. - **Trading Strategy**: Mainly observe, and hold short positions in coking coal 2605 cautiously [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The global supply is expected to be abundant, and the demand has different characteristics. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans may enter an oscillatory phase. Pay attention to crude oil and demand fulfillment [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices declined, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress and policy factors affect the price. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to rise, and Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated strongly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There are changes in planting area expectations and export data. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips, with a price range reference of 15,100 - 15,500 yuan/ton [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market continued to decline [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase seasonally, and demand has increased in the short term. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilaterally suggest observation, and pay attention to crude oil and production [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: There are factors of demand boost and sufficient supply. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices continued to decline [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong and demand is weak. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to be weak [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract decreased slightly, and the basis strengthened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to decrease significantly in the short term, and demand is improving. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; go short on rallies in the medium term [8]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract price decreased 2.3% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Production increased, demand is weak, and inventory is starting to decline. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest a positive spread strategy [8]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract price decreased 1.2% [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is weak, and inventory is declining. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest buying glass and selling soda ash [8]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract decreased slightly, and the basis strengthened [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is reduced in the short term, and demand is improving. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; go short on rallies in the medium - long term [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices first declined and then rose [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The US - Iran conflict has a significant impact on supply and export. - **Trading Strategy**: Oil prices may continue to rise if the strait is blocked, and may reverse if the situation eases [9]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply and demand are affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the demand side has a negative feedback. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow crude oil price fluctuations in the short term; the supply - demand situation will weaken after the conflict eases [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The sa05 contract price decreased 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. - **Trading Strategy**: Suggest observation [10].

Economic Impact of Middle East Situation - The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to a significant increase in energy prices, with Brent crude oil prices rising over 50% from $71.3 per barrel at the end of February to a peak of $112.2 on March 20[7] - The assumption is that the energy crisis caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will last approximately 3 months, with a 40% probability of resolution within this timeframe[7] - If oil prices remain at $130 per barrel for the long term, the likelihood of a global recession increases significantly[7] Inflation and Economic Indicators - A 10% increase in oil prices is estimated to raise the overall CPI by 0.2-0.3 percentage points, while the core CPI would only increase by about 0.06 percentage points[8] - February's non-farm payrolls showed a decrease of 92,000 jobs, significantly below the expected increase of 55,000, indicating a weakening labor market[22] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, higher than the market expectation of 4.3%[27] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts until the situation in Iran clarifies, with no immediate plans for rate hikes[34] - The Fed's current forecast maintains the expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, but risks of stagflation may lead to smaller cuts than anticipated[35] - The balance of considerations for the Fed is shifting towards inflation data, especially in light of rising energy prices and economic stagnation risks[35] Currency and Market Trends - The short-term trajectory of the US dollar index is closely tied to the Middle East situation and oil prices, with the index surpassing 100 due to rising energy prices[40] - If oil prices continue to rise, the dollar may appreciate further; however, once the geopolitical tensions ease, the dollar's movement is expected to revert to economic fundamentals[40] - The overall economic outlook for the US is anticipated to be weak in the short term, with potential recovery expected by mid to late 2026[14]

Report Overview - The report is a precious metals strategy report by Shan Jin Futures, updated on March 25, 2026, covering gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals rebounded from lows today, with Shanghai gold up 3.55%, Shanghai silver up 7.05%, platinum up 5.63%, and palladium up 5.07% [1]. - In the short - term, trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normal. The US has a strong job market and persistent inflation, with low expectations of interest rate cuts [1]. - The US - Israel air strike on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have caused a global chain reaction, leading to concerns about long - term Middle - East conflicts, rising energy costs, and stagflation [1]. - The Fed maintained interest rates this month, stating that the Iran war has made the policy outlook highly uncertain. It is expected that inflation will rise, unemployment will remain stable, and there will be one interest rate cut this year. Traders have postponed rate - cut bets to 2027 [1]. - The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand for other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - Precious metals are expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, fluctuate at low levels in the medium - term, and maintain a long - term bullish trend [1]. Section Summaries Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - Today, Comex gold active contract closed at $4410.40/oz, down $81.60 (-1.82%); London gold at $4466.25/oz, down $96.30 (-2.11%); Shanghai gold main contract at 979.80 yuan/g, up 39.80 yuan (4.23%); gold T + D at 977.99 yuan/g, up 57.00 yuan (6.19%) [2]. - The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai gold on the SHFE shows that the total net long position of the top 5 is 69,688, an increase of 9,909 (23.71%); the total net short position of the top 5 is 8,655, an increase of 20 (2.95%) [3]. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - Comex silver active contract closed at $69.32/oz, up $1.51 (2.23%); London silver at $67.23/oz, down $5.14 (-7.10%); Shanghai silver main contract at 18,111 yuan/kg, up 1,026 yuan (6.01%); silver T + D at 18,121 yuan/kg, up 955 yuan (5.56%) [4]. - The net long position of the top 10 futures companies in Shanghai silver on the SHFE shows that the total net long position of the top 5 is 62,924, a decrease of 567 (14.14%); the total net short position of the top 5 is 56,782, an increase of 599 (12.76%) [5]. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2113.20/oz, up $88.70 (4.38%); London platinum at $2118.00/oz, up $41.00 (1.97%); platinum main contract on the GZFE at 552.70 yuan/g, up 19.90 yuan (3.73%); platinum closing price on the SGE at 548.93 yuan/g, up 20.28 yuan (3.84%) [7]. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [8]. - NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1620.50/oz, up $59.50 (3.81%); London palladium at $1601.00/oz, down $49.00 (-3.04%); palladium main contract on the GZFE at 407.75 yuan/g, up 9.20 yuan (2.31%) [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 3.75%, down 0.25%; discount rate is 3.75%, down 0.25%; reserve balance rate (IORB) is 3.65%, down 0.25% [9]. - The Fed's total assets are $67,071.04 billion, up $95.98 billion (0.00%); M2 year - on - year growth is 4.29%, up 0.06% [9]. - Ten - year US Treasury real yield is 2.63%, up 0.11 (4.37%); dollar index is 99.12, down 0.40 (-0.40%); US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is - 0.09, up 0.05 (-35.71%) [9]. - US CPI year - on - year is 2.40%, month - on - month is 0.50%; core CPI year - on - year is 2.50%, month - on - month is 0.40 [9]. - US GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.10%, down 0.30%; annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 0.70%, down 3.70% [9]. - US unemployment rate is 4.40%, up 0.10%; non - farm payrolls monthly change is - 9.20 million, down 2.18 million [9]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the federal funds rate being in the 375 - 400 range in April 2026 is 4.1%, and the probability of being in the 350 - 375 range is 95.9%. The probability distribution changes over time, with the probability of rate cuts gradually increasing in the future [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals futures industry is "observe mainly with a focus on the oscillating market" [2] Report's Core View - The Middle - East war shows no obvious sign of stopping, but there are market expectations that the war may be nearing its end [2] - Rising inflation expectations have weakened the Fed's willingness to cut interest rates, leading to a significant correction in precious metals [2] - Compared to gold, silver has more negative factors, with a stronger downward momentum [2] - Geopolitical risks will determine the Fed's monetary policy path, with equal probabilities of interest rate hikes or cuts [2] - Gold and silver are at a critical edge of medium - term oscillation, and whether they can hold needs further observation. Previous short positions can be properly closed, and the oscillating pattern will continue until the new Fed chair's policies become clearer [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Review - The report presents graphs on the internal and external prices of gold and silver futures, as well as the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai gold and silver futures [4][6] 2. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - Graphs show the relationship between the US dollar index and gold price, and US interest rates and gold price [8] 3. Macro Data - The report includes graphs on US CPI inflation data, PCE inflation data, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate, new non - farm employment, PMI, retail and personal disposable income, new private housing starts, and new housing sales [13][15][18] 4. Fund Holdings and Ratios - Graphs display the total holdings of silver and gold ETFs, the holding ratios of gold and silver asset management institutions, the gold - silver ratio, and the gold - copper ratio [20][23][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent military conflict in the Middle East on the U.S. stock market, highlighting a significant decline in major stock indices and a shift in investor sentiment towards defensive sectors, particularly energy, while technology stocks face increased selling pressure [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - As of March 20, U.S. stock indices have experienced four consecutive weeks of decline, the first occurrence since February 2025 [1]. - The technology sector, previously a leader in market gains, has seen a year-to-date decline of 9% among the "seven giants" of technology [1]. - In contrast, the energy sector has thrived, becoming a "safe haven" for investors amid rising geopolitical tensions [1]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Risk - The military conflict has negatively affected investor risk appetite, leading to a significant withdrawal of funds from risk assets like U.S. stocks [1]. - The shift in capital flows has resulted in a continuous outflow of funds from the technology sector, particularly affecting high-valuation stocks [2]. Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The surge in energy prices has raised inflation expectations, constraining the Federal Reserve's policy options [2]. - WTI crude oil prices reached a peak of over $118 per barrel, marking a 47% increase in a month, while Brent crude rose by 48% [2]. - The rising inflation expectations have altered market predictions regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the possibility of delaying or even reversing previous easing plans [3]. Group 4: Corporate Earnings Outlook - Rising energy prices are increasing production costs for companies, particularly in manufacturing, transportation, and retail, thereby compressing profit margins [3]. - Concurrently, inflationary pressures are expected to weaken consumer purchasing power, leading to a decline in demand and negatively impacting corporate revenue growth [3]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - U.S. oil companies, such as Western Oil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and ExxonMobil, have seen stock price increases exceeding 30% this year due to the conflict's impact on oil supply [4]. - The ongoing supply constraints, coupled with steady demand, have led to a significant imbalance in the energy market, driving oil prices higher and benefiting U.S. energy companies [5]. Group 6: Broader Financial Concerns - There are concerns regarding the potential spread of a private credit crisis, as investors withdraw from private credit funds due to fears about the impact of artificial intelligence on traditional software sectors [5]. - Major financial institutions have faced significant redemptions from private credit funds, raising concerns about their profitability and the risk of insolvency for smaller financial entities [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall precious metals market declined today, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold down 3.83%, Shanghai Silver down 6.25%, Platinum down 1.98%, and Palladium up 2.68%. In the short - term, due to the easing of trade - war risks, the potential normalization of Middle - East geopolitical risks, strong US employment, persistent inflation pressure, and low expectations of interest - rate cuts, the precious metals are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, in low - level oscillation in the medium term, and maintain a long - term bullish trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [2]. - **Price Data**: International prices such as Comex Gold and London Gold decreased, with Comex Gold down 3.57% and London Gold down 5.54% compared to the previous day. Domestic prices like Shanghai Gold and Gold T + D also declined, with Shanghai Gold down 2.15% and Gold T + D down 2.05% compared to the previous day [2]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex Gold position increased by 1.02% compared to the previous week, while Shanghai Gold main contract position decreased by 12.15% compared to the previous day. LBMA inventory increased by 0.56% compared to the previous week, and Comex Gold inventory decreased by 1.58% [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, with details of the positions and their changes of each company [3]. Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - **Price Data**: International prices of Comex Silver and London Silver dropped, with Comex Silver down 3.46% and London Silver down 11.32% compared to the previous day. Domestic prices of Shanghai Silver and Silver T + D also decreased, with Shanghai Silver down 2.00% and Silver T + D down 1.17% compared to the previous day [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex Silver position remained unchanged compared to the previous week, Shanghai Silver main contract position decreased by 3.51% compared to the previous day, and the total visible inventory decreased by 0.48% compared to the previous week [4]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, including the positions and their changes of each company [5]. Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are recommended [6]. - **Price Data**: International prices of NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum increased, with NYMEX Platinum up 4.38% and London Platinum up 1.97% compared to the previous day. Domestic prices of Platinum main contract and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also rose, with the main contract up 3.73% and the Shanghai Gold Exchange price up 3.84% compared to the previous day [7]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX Platinum active contract position decreased by 6.76% compared to the previous day, and the total inventory remained unchanged [7]. Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management and stop - loss/take - profit are recommended [8]. - **Price Data**: The international price of NYMEX Palladium active contract increased by 3.81% compared to the previous day, while the London Palladium price decreased by 3.04% compared to the previous day. The domestic Palladium main contract price increased by 2.31% compared to the previous day [8]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: NYMEX Palladium active contract position increased by 0.89% compared to the previous day, and the total inventory increased by 22.15% compared to the previous day [8]. Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The federal funds target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25%. The US dollar index decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the M2 growth rate increased by 0.06% [9]. - **US Inflation**: CPI year - on - year remained unchanged, and core CPI year - on - year also remained unchanged. The PCE price index year - on - year decreased by 0.08%, and the core PCE price index year - on - year increased by 0.05% [9]. - **US Economic Growth**: GDP annualized year - on - year decreased by 0.30%, and GDP annualized quarter - on - quarter decreased by 3.70%. The unemployment rate increased by 0.10% [9]. - **US Labor Market**: The non - farm payroll employment change was - 9.20 million, and the labor participation rate increased by 0.20%. The ADP employment number increased by 5.20 million [9]. - **US Real Estate Market**: Existing home sales decreased by 4.22% compared to the previous week, and new home sales decreased by 14.58% compared to the previous week [9]. - **US Consumption**: Retail sales year - on - year decreased by 0.86%, and personal consumption expenditure year - on - year increased by 0.66% [11]. - **US Industry**: The industrial production index year - on - year decreased by 0.89%, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.04% [11]. - **US Trade**: Exports year - on - year increased by 32.70%, and imports year - on - year increased by 0.94%. The trade balance increased by 25.30% [11]. - **US Economic Surveys**: The ISM manufacturing PMI index decreased by 0.20, and the ISM services PMI index increased by 2.30 [11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserves**: China's gold reserves increased by 0.09%, and the US and world gold reserves remained unchanged [11]. - **IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves Ratio**: The US dollar ratio decreased by 2.53%, and the euro ratio increased by 5.61% [11]. - **Gold/Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's ratio increased by 4.06%, and the US ratio increased by 1.08% [11]. - **Geopolitical and Risk - related Indexes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 28.64%, and the VIX index decreased by 4.11% [11]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index decreased by 0.09%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased by 0.15% [11]. Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate range at different meeting dates from April 2026 to December 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate decisions [13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral investment rating for the gold market, indicating a cautious outlook for the near term [6]. Core Insights - Recent significant declines in gold prices have been attributed to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which have led to a shift in market expectations regarding interest rates and reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][3]. - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's decision to raise the PCE inflation forecast for 2026 to 2.7% and the long-term equilibrium interest rate to 3.1% has effectively eliminated market expectations for rate cuts this year, with only 25 basis points of potential easing remaining [2]. - The report notes that rising U.S. Treasury yields, driven by the Fed's hawkish stance, have increased the cost of holding gold, further pressuring prices [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, have failed to provide the expected support for gold prices, as market concerns about interest rates have overshadowed these risks [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Price Trends - Gold prices have recently experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of $4505.43 per ounce, the lowest since February, with a daily drop of 3.40% on March 19 [1]. Price Decline Logic - The report identifies that the primary driver of the price drop is the absolute dominance of policy pressures, which have rendered gold's safe-haven attributes ineffective [2]. - The report discusses the strong transmission mechanism from hawkish policies to rising Treasury yields and subsequent gold sell-offs, creating a cycle of increased holding costs for gold [2]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market has seen a significant withdrawal of funds from gold ETFs and COMEX non-commercial net long positions, reflecting a bearish sentiment that could exacerbate price declines [9]. - The report emphasizes that the combination of profit-taking and stop-loss selling has intensified the downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Future Drivers - Key future catalysts for gold prices include upcoming U.S. economic data releases, such as CPI/PCE inflation and non-farm payrolls, which could either reinforce hawkish expectations or revive rate cut prospects [5]. - The report also highlights the importance of global central bank monetary policy decisions and geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, as factors that could influence gold's price trajectory [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that gold prices are likely to remain weak in the short term, with potential fluctuations around $4500 to $4800 per ounce, and emphasizes that any significant rebound will depend on inflation trends and economic resilience [10]. - In the medium to long term, the report notes that gold's long-term investment value remains intact due to ongoing geopolitical fragmentation and central bank gold purchases, with a potential return to an upward trend if the Fed initiates rate cuts [10].

Core Viewpoint - Tencent and Alibaba reported earnings that fell short of market expectations, leading to a decline in the Hang Seng Tech Index, which closed down 1.7% at 4911 points on March 20, 2026 [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Tech Index faced a drop, closing at 4911 points with a trading volume of 413 billion HKD, while Alibaba and Xiaomi saw significant declines of 5.76% and 6.94% respectively [3]. - The index opened at 4948.04 and reached a low of 4893.99, indicating a volatile trading session [4]. Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts believe that the risks associated with the earnings reports from Tencent and Alibaba have largely been priced in, with the focus now shifting to upcoming earnings from Meituan and Xiaomi [6]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to find support around the 4800-point level, with analysts suggesting that the current valuation may present long-term investment opportunities [7]. - Concerns regarding the ongoing Middle East tensions and high oil prices are impacting technology stocks, with analysts noting that these factors could influence inflation and monetary policy [7][8].

Monetary Policy - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations[1] - Only one committee member opposed the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[1] - The economic projections indicate that most members expect one rate cut this year, with the median forecast being a single cut[2] Inflation and Employment - Current core inflation is around 3%, with 50% to 75% driven by tariff factors[2] - Powell expressed optimism about inflation, suggesting that any negative impacts on employment and economic activity would be offset by improved profits in the oil sector[1] - The labor market remains tight, with employment growth slowing due to reduced immigration and declining labor participation rates[2] Geopolitical and Economic Risks - The statement included a note on the uncertain impact of Middle Eastern developments on the U.S. economy[1] - Risks to the Fed's rate cut timeline include rapid geopolitical resolution, faster-than-expected inflation decline, significant labor market deterioration, or unexpected tightening of financial conditions[4] Future Outlook - The Fed is adopting a cautious wait-and-see approach regarding the current economic situation and geopolitical landscape[3] - The timing of potential rate cuts may be further delayed, but this does not signify the end of the easing cycle[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals generally declined, with the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closing down 4.64%, Shanghai silver down 10.35%, platinum down 4.66%, and palladium up 1.07%. [1] - In the short - term, trade war risks have eased, and Middle - East geopolitical risks may become normalized. The US employment is robust with persistent inflation pressure, and the expectation of interest rate cuts is low. [1] - Iran rejected the proposal to de - escalate the conflict, and Israel claimed to have killed an Iranian security official. US and Israeli air strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliatory actions have triggered a global chain reaction, leading to concerns about long - term Middle - East conflicts, rising energy costs, and stagflation threats. [1] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, stating that the Iran war has made the policy outlook highly uncertain. It expects inflation to rise, unemployment to remain stable, and one interest rate cut this year. However, this policy path faces high uncertainty, and traders have postponed their bets on interest rate cuts to 2027. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. [1] - The Middle - East geopolitical crisis has increased the global recession risk, suppressing the industrial demand prospects of other commodities. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure from the fuel vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] - Precious metals are expected to be oscillating weakly in the short - term, oscillating at a low level in the medium - term, and maintaining a long - term upward trend. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - Price: International prices (Comex gold and London gold) and domestic prices (Shanghai gold futures and gold T + D) all decreased. For example, Comex gold active contract closed at $4,823.90 per ounce, down $187.40 (-3.74%) from the previous day and $360.00 (-6.94%) from the previous week. [2] - Key indicators: The basis and spreads of gold showed different changes, and the positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold futures, and gold T + D also changed. For instance, the position of Comex gold decreased by 1.48% from the previous week. [2] Silver - Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [4] - Price: International prices (Comex silver and London silver) and domestic prices (Shanghai silver futures and silver T + D) declined. For example, Comex silver active contract closed at $75.42 per ounce, down $4.04 (-5.08%) from the previous day and $10.49 (-12.21%) from the previous week. [4] - Key indicators: The basis and spreads of silver changed, and the positions and inventories of different silver contracts also had various trends. For example, the position of Shanghai silver futures increased by 10.21% from the previous week. [4] Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors can adopt a buy - low - sell - high strategy with position management. [6] - Price: International prices (NYMEX platinum and London platinum) and domestic prices (platinum futures on the GZFE and platinum on the SGE) increased compared to the previous day but decreased compared to the previous week. For example, NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2,113.20 per ounce, up $88.70 (4.38%) from the previous day and down $76.00 (-3.47%) from the previous week. [6] - Key indicators: The basis and spreads changed, and the position of NYMEX platinum decreased. [6] Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [7] - Price: International prices (NYMEX palladium and London palladium) showed different trends. NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1,620.50 per ounce, up $59.50 (3.81%) from the previous day and down $92.00 (-5.37%) from the previous week, while London palladium decreased. [7] - Key indicators: The basis and spreads changed, and the position and inventory of NYMEX palladium increased. [7] Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Fed - related data: The federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets were 6,697.506 billion US dollars, up 1.8079 billion US dollars (0.00%) from the previous week. [8] - US economic indicators: GDP growth, inflation data (such as CPI, PCE), labor market data (unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls), real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, and trade data all showed different trends. For example, the GDP annualized year - on - year growth rate was 2.10%, down 0.30% from the previous week. [8][9][10] - Other data: Geopolitical risk index decreased by 21.94%, VIX index increased by 12.16%, CRB commodity index increased slightly by 0.03%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate changed slightly. [10] Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of the federal fund rate remaining in different ranges at each meeting from April 2026 to December 2027 is provided, showing that the probability of the rate remaining in the 350 - 375 and 375 - 400 ranges is relatively high in the near - term and gradually changes over time. [12]