Group 1: Report Overview - The report analyzes the recent military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, covering aspects such as conflict origin, nature, strategic goals, economic impacts, and war scenario projections [2][3] Group 2: Conflict Origin - The conflict is a result of decades - long development of the Iranian nuclear issue, including the end of the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2025, political and economic turmoil in Iran, and the long - term escalation of confrontation among the US, Israel, and Iran [4][6] - The US - Israel coalition aims to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and promote regime change, while Iran aims to defend national sovereignty and regime stability [6] Group 3: Conflict Nature and US Action Timing - The conflict is a combination of the US's need to maintain Middle - East hegemony, Trump's political calculation for the 2026 election, and Israel's preventive strike against Iran's nuclear threat [7] - The US chose to act due to the 2026 election window, Iran's domestic unrest, energy market buffer, and the lack of unified international intervention [8] Group 4: Strategic Goals of the Three Parties - The US aims for regime change in Iran, elimination of nuclear threats, and consolidation of Middle - East hegemony [9] - Israel focuses on eliminating Iran's nuclear and military threats and strengthening its military advantage in the region [10] - Iran aims to defend its regime, maintain nuclear sovereignty, and promote conflict de - escalation through counter - attacks and diplomacy [11] Group 5: Macroeconomic Conduction Effects - The conflict's impact on the macro - economy is mainly through the "energy price → inflation level → economic growth → monetary policy" chain [12] - The Fed is likely to maintain a wait - and - see stance, with a delayed but not reversed easing policy [13] - The conflict may disrupt the global supply chain if the Red Sea - Suez Canal route is affected [14] Group 6: War Scenario Projections - Four core variables determine the war's direction: Iran's counter - attack red lines, the flexibility of US - Israel strategic goals, Iran's regime cohesion, and international mediation [15][16][17] - Four scenarios are projected: escalation, benchmark, out - of - control, and reversal [18][19] - Key time windows include March 1 - 3, March 3 - 5, March 7 - 15, and March 20, each with specific observation points [19][20][21] - Black swan and grey rhino events, such as high US casualties and Strait of Hormuz blockade, may significantly change the war's direction [22]

美国总统特朗普尚未正式提名凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)出任美联储主席。这一拖延虽然并非前所未有，但也不属常见情况， 并为这一本已因外界担忧美联储面临政治压力而充满不确定性的进程增添了更多变数。而美联储免受短期政治因素影响、并能够在不考虑总统偏好的情况下 制定利率政策，被广泛视为其控制通胀并引导经济保持健康运行能力的关键。 特朗普四周前宣布提名前美联储理事沃什为下一任美联储主席。自2010年以来，在白宫宣布提名与向参议院提交启动正式确认程序的文件之间，等待时间超 过四周的美联储主席及理事会席位提名人仅有两例。 沃什提名迟迟未推进的原因尚不清楚，不过共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯(Thom Tillis)已承诺，只要美国司法部针对鲍威尔就华盛顿美联储大楼翻修问题向国会 作证一事的调查仍在进行，他就会阻止任何美联储提名的推进。蒂利斯称，该调查毫无根据，是特朗普政府的一种恐吓手段。而特朗普政府一直公开表达对 鲍威尔的不满，原因是其降息速度和幅度未达到政府期望。 预测机构LH Meyer的分析师德里克·唐(Derek Tang)表示："沃什提名迟迟没有进展确实令人感到奇 ...

27日，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示： 美国1月核心PPI同比 3.6%，预期 3%，前值 3.3%。 美国1月PPI环比0.5%，预期0.3%，前值0.5%。 美国1月核心PPI环比0.8%，预期0.3%，前值0.7%。 美国1月生产者价格指数（PPI）全线超预期上涨，凸显通胀压力依然顽固。这一意外升温主要由服务成本飙升所驱动。剔除食品和能 源的核心PPI环比和同比增幅均大幅超出市场预期，创下近一年来的最快增速。 商品分项则呈现相反走势。1月最终需求商品价格环比下跌0.3%，主要受能源价格拖累——能源分项下降2.7%，食品价格下跌1.5%。 但剔除食品和能源后的核心商品价格环比上涨0.7%，为2022年初以来最大单月涨幅之一。 核心指标创近一年新高 在剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本后，核心PPI的涨幅更为显著，显示出潜在通胀的强劲势头。美国1月核心PPI环比激增0.8%，远高 于预期的0.3%，前值为0.7%。 美国1月PPI同比2.9%，预期:2.6%，前值：3% 生产者价格的强劲上涨引发了市场对通胀路径的重新评估。分析认为，PPI的超预期表现可能导致美联储密切关注的核心个人消费支出 （PCE）物价指数同样 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are struggling to surpass $5,200 per ounce, with potential for an increase by year-end, but a major bank anticipates further consolidation in spring [3][10]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - The latest trading price for spot gold is $5,174 per ounce, reflecting a monthly increase of over 5% [3][8]. - Despite recent resistance, the market is expected to end the month on a stable note due to a rebound from late January sell-offs [3][10]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from Bank of America reaffirm a target price of $6,000 per ounce for gold over the next 12 months, acknowledging recent resistance as investors adapt to higher prices [5][10]. - There are concerns regarding the pace at which investors are increasing their exposure to gold, which may lead to a period of weakness in prices during spring [5][10]. Group 3: Economic Influences - The gold market is influenced by uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and the need for clearer monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [11]. - The recent historic pullback was partly due to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair, who is seen as a traditional central banker [11][12]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Federal Reserve Policies - Analysts note that while a weak dollar typically supports gold prices, the impact of interest rates is a more significant concern [6][11]. - Warsh's intention to lower policy rates could support gold prices, but the Fed's challenge in managing its large balance sheet remains a critical issue [6][12]. - The potential for quantitative tightening to reduce bank reserves may lead to liquidity shortages, affecting the monetary market [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity futures market closed with mixed results, with base metals leading the gains. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend after the opening, but the slope will be slower than in January. The RMB is expected to continue to strengthen in the second quarter. Most varieties in the market are expected to show an oscillatory trend in the short - term [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On February 25, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4731.4, with a daily increase of 0.9%, a weekly increase of 2.26%, a monthly increase of 0.43%, a quarterly increase of 2.86%, and an annual increase of 2.86%. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures showed different degrees of decline on February 25, 2026, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures having the largest daily decline of 0.48% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 97.6594 on February 25, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a weekly decline of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.56%, and an annual decline of 0.62%. The US dollar intermediate price decreased by 202 pips daily [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.05 bp on February 25, 2026, with a daily increase of 1 bp, a weekly decline of 3 bp, a monthly decline of 21 bp, and an annual decline of 13 bp [2]. 3.2 Fluctuations of Popular Industries - On February 26, 2026, the defense and military industry had a daily increase of 1.62%, a weekly increase of 4.8%, a monthly increase of 6.07%, a quarterly increase of 10.92%, and an annual increase of 10.92%. The consumer services industry had a daily decline of 1.41%, a weekly decline of 5.6%, a monthly decline of 4.96%, a quarterly decline of 4.37%, and an annual decline of 4.37% [5]. 3.3 Fluctuations of Overseas Commodities - On February 25, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at 65.57, with a daily decline of 0.09%, a weekly decline of 1.12%, a monthly decline of 0.26%, a quarterly increase of 14.21%, and an annual increase of 14.21%. COMEX gold was priced at 5183.7, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, a monthly increase of 5.63%, a quarterly increase of 19.66%, and an annual increase of 19.66% [8]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Summary - **Domestic Macroeconomy**: During the Spring Festival, travel and consumption performed well, while real - estate sales were at a seasonal low. The social financing at the beginning of January was stable, with strong government - sector financing and private - sector financing in line with expectations [16]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US economy showed a slowdown in overall expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In February 2026, the US economic sentiment and consumer confidence weakened, and the private - sector expansion slowed down [16]. - **Major Asset Classes**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation and Trump's tariff policy may support the prices of gold and silver in the short - term. The A - share market is expected to continue its moderate upward trend, while the black - metal sector and the domestic bond market may continue to oscillate. The RMB is expected to strengthen in the second quarter [16]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to be oscillating and bullish, stock index options are expected to oscillate, and treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be oscillating and bullish [17]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties in this sector, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials, such as copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish trend [17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt, are expected to oscillate [20]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products, such as natural rubber, cotton, and sugar, are expected to oscillate, with some showing an oscillating and bullish or bearish trend [20].

2026年已进入二月末，全球黄金市场呈现高位震荡态势，伦敦金现徘徊于5188美元/盎司附近，国内黄 金T+D报价1141.49元/克，金店零售价突破1560元/克，创下历史同期新高。作为资深金融从业者，结合 2026年最新市场数据、机构专业研判及抖音精选平台专业博主深度分析，本文将全面拆解影响黄金价格 的主要因素 2026年、,2026年2月黄金价格走势分析、2026年黄金价格走势预测、2026年黄金价格上涨原 因分析、2026年黄金价格下跌原因分析、全年价格预测，剖析金价涨跌核心逻辑，整合机构与博主观 点，为专业投资者提供2026年黄金投资核心参考。 2026年2月黄金市场呈现"冲高回落、高位震荡、支撑强劲"的特征，结合抖音精选专业博主解读及机构 复盘，具体分为三个阶段： （一）2月上旬：冲高破位，创下阶段性新高 2月21日-27日，金价逐步企稳，截至27日早盘，伦敦金现报5188.51美元/盎司，国内黄金T+D报1141.49 元/克，金店零售价维持1566-1576元/克。抖音精选博主@黄金投资干货分享指出，企稳核心是地缘风险 升温、央行购金持续及美元走弱：美国向伊朗周边增兵推升避险情绪，波兰央行批准1 ...

2026年02月27日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：昨日贵金属继续震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价涨 | | | | | | 美元/盎司，以伦敦银计价的国 | | | 5184 | | | | | | | | | 0.38%至 | | 金 | 际银价跌 美元/盎司。 | 1.01%至 | 88.272 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 属 | 基本面：英伟达年报业绩未能缓解市场担忧，股票大跌 | | | | 5%，拖累纳斯达克表现，不过 | | | | | | | | 年报显示业绩良 | | | DELL | | | | | | 好，盘后大涨；美联储理事米兰周四重申，尽管劳动力市场改善，仍预计 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 02 月 27 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国关税政策变动带来的避险需求有所减退并削弱贵金属板块的上涨动能， 但美元指数偏弱回调支撑伦敦黄金在 5150-5200 美元/盎司区间附近企稳，美国总 统 3 月底访华消息推动人民币汇率走高进而抑制贵金属内盘价格。我们判断贵金 属中长期上涨驱动力不变，贵金属板块已有从 1 月底暴跌中恢复的迹象，建议投 资者继续持偏多思路参与交易；但波动性显著上升也加大了杠杆交易的风险，建 议投资者严格控制仓位以规避短期波动风险。本周关注美国关税政策、美伊谈 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：陈平 2月26日，随着周四亚洲交易时段的开启，黄金价格在每盎司5200美元关口附近表现出极强的韧性。 FPG财盛国际认为，近期美元指数从高位小幅回落0.2%至一个月高点下方，为贵金属市场提供了宝贵的 喘息空间。由于市场对美国新一轮最高可达15%的全球关税政策感到不安，加之投资者在日内瓦美伊关 键核谈判前夕保持高度审慎，避险买盘正成为支撑金价在高位盘整的核心驱动力。 与此同时，交易员们正紧盯美国最高法院近期对贸易措施法律框架的重新定义。FPG财盛国际认为，这 种法律层面的变动直接影响了关税政策的落地执行，使得全球贸易前景蒙上一层阴影。新一轮全球关税 的引入，不仅加剧了供应链的成本压力，更促使全球机构投资者通过资产多元化配置，将资金流向黄金 等硬资产以实现风险分散。 除了宏观局势的扰动，市场正屏息关注日内即将公布的每周初请失业金等美国重磅经济数据。FPG财盛 国际表示，这些数据是研判美联储货币政策后续动向的重要线索。尽管目前铂金上涨1.3%至2307.60美 元，而白银表现相对平淡，报89.41美元，但黄金作为贵金属龙头的避险属性依然无可替代，其在对冲 通胀与政策 ...

资金正在疯狂涌入黄金市场。 世界黄金协会的报告显示，2026年1月份，全球实物黄金ETF流入了190亿美元的资金，创下 了单月历史最高纪录。 这使得全球黄金ETF的总资产管理规模达到了6690亿美元，总持仓量增加120吨，达到4145吨，同样 是历史新高。 特别值得注意的是亚洲市场，1月份流入了约100亿美元，占全球总流入的一半以上，也创下了该地区的单月 纪录。 这显示即便在金价高位，投资者，尤其是亚洲投资者，依然在积极配置黄金。 对于金价未来能涨到哪，各大金融机构吵得不可开交。 一派观点非常乐观。 瑞银在最新的报告中，将2026年年中的黄金目 标价上调到了6200美元/盎司，甚至在极端情景下看高至7200美元。 摩根大通则维持其2026年底金价达到6300美元/盎司的预 测不变。 美国银行认为未来12个月金价有望升至6000美元/盎司。 2026年2月26日，国际黄金市场一开盘就透着一股不寻常的热乎劲。 伦敦现货黄金价格稳稳地站在了5200美元/盎司上方， 盘中最高触及5216美元。 一天之内，金价就涨了超过1%，硬生生把之前横盘许久的关键阻力位给踩在了脚下。 国内这边也 没闲着，上海黄金交易所的黄金T D ...